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On the Road Again a Financial and Extra-Financial Analysis of the Auto Industry

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On the Road Again a Financial and Extra-Financial Analysis of the Auto Industry SRI - EFI Sector Research On the road again A Financial and Extra-financial Analysis of the Auto Industry p Caught in the void Î fuel prices, carbon and pollution p Charting new terrain becomes key Î alternative power trains p Cost is king Î it determines the way forward p Don’t forget Î governance, BRICs, legacy costs and offshoring p Toyota is our global champion Î other winners could emerge Pierre-Yves Quéméner, Financial Analyst +33 1 45 96 77 63 [email protected] November 2005 Valéry Lucas Leclin, SRI Analyst +33 1 45 96 79 23 [email protected] Sarj Nahal, SRI Analyst +33 1 45 96 78 75 [email protected] On the road again This report follows a request from a group of asset managers working with the United Nations to analyse the environmental, social and corporate governance issues that may be material for company performance and to then identify potential impact on company valuations. The United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) works closely with 160 financial institutions worldwide, to develop and promote linkages between the environment, sustainability and financial performance. UNEP FI Asset Management Working Group (AMWG) explores the association between environmental, social, and governance considerations and investment decision-making. Asset Managers that have participated in this project have combined mandates of 1.7 trillion USD. Asset managers: ABN AMRO Asset Management Brazil Acuity Investment Management BNP Paribas Asset Management BT Financial Group Calvert Group Citigroup Asset Management Groupama Asset Management Hermes Pensions Management HSBC Asset Management Insight Investment Management Morley Fund Management Nikko Asset Management RCM (UK) (Allianz Dresdner) Sanpaolo IMI Asset Management For more information about UNEP, UNEP FI or the AMWG please contact the project team: Philip Walker, Helen Bloustein or Gordon Hagart email: [email protected] November 2005 Page 2 On the road again Contents Investment Case................................................................................5 Introduction – SRI & EFIs (extra-financial issues) .........................9 A range of possible scenarios are on the table....................................................................... 9 Investment horizons................................................................................................................ 9 The state of the industry today ............................................................................................. 11 Cost reductions: where are we headed? .............................................................................. 12 Globalisation: mature markets .............................................................................................. 12 Globalisation, another BRIC in the road .......................................14 Emergence of the BRICs ...................................................................................................... 14 Brazil..................................................................................................................................... 16 Russia................................................................................................................................... 23 India...................................................................................................................................... 27 China .................................................................................................................................... 36 Offshoring – is it a long-term solution? ........................................41 It’s not as simple as it seems................................................................................................ 41 Breaking down an automaker’s costs ................................................................................... 41 Offshoring assembly – the advantages................................................................................. 43 Offshoring assembly – the hidden costs ............................................................................... 45 Is assembly actually being offshored? .................................................................................. 46 Offshoring R&D – where the focus will be ............................................................................ 54 Legacy costs – will they leave automakers with no legacy at all? ......................................................................55 The ageing workforce ........................................................................................................... 56 The social costs – economic decline comes at a huge cost ................................................. 57 The autoworker perspective ................................................................................................. 58 How are the automakers positioned on legacy costs?.......................................................... 62 Restructuring – what are the options on the table?............................................................... 67 Corporate governance – why is the German model being called into question?............................................................70 Deutschland AG ................................................................................................................... 70 VW – Oh what a tangled web we weave ! ............................................................................ 74 Porsche’s stake in VW – the web thickens ........................................................................... 78 There is light at the end of the tunnel.................................................................................... 81 Environment: more stringent regulations.....................................83 Tightening Environmental Regulations ................................................................................. 83 Diesel and Auto Pollution: still an issue ................................................................................ 94 New technologies – the clean car miracle? ..................................98 My way or the highway? ....................................................................................................... 98 The only carbon-free solutions – hydrogen, electric, and fuel cells....................................... 99 Time to get down to the cold, hard facts ............................................................................. 100 November 2005 Page 3 On the road again Long-term fuel efficiency trends – what’s really going on?......102 All is not lost on fuel efficiency............................................................................................ 102 US trends – a short history and some explanations ........................................................... 103 Europe & Japan – better performance than the US............................................................ 111 What does the future hold?................................................................................................. 118 Technological transition will separate the sheep from the goats ..............................................................................134 Technology will determine mix & market share (but don’t forget overall market growth trends)........................................................................................................ 134 Cost will be the driving force behind the emergence of the clean car................................. 136 A variety of technologies will coexist despite lobbying efforts............................................. 138 Determining “costs to target”: difficult in the absence of reliable tools ................................ 139 Company Profiles : Reviewing tomorrow’s players...................149 BMW AG............................................................................................................................. 152 DaimlerChrysler AG............................................................................................................ 153 Fiat SpA.............................................................................................................................. 154 Ford Motor Company.......................................................................................................... 155 General Motors Corp. ......................................................................................................... 156 Honda Motor Company....................................................................................................... 157 Hyundai Motor .................................................................................................................... 158 Nissan Motors Co. .............................................................................................................. 159 Porsche AG ........................................................................................................................ 160 PSA-Peugeot Citroën ......................................................................................................... 161 Renault SA ......................................................................................................................... 162 Toyota Motor Corp.............................................................................................................. 163 Volkswagen AG .................................................................................................................. 164
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