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The Automotive Industry and Climate Change

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The Automotive Industry and Climate Change The automotive industry and climate change Framework and dynamics of the CO2 (r)evolution ”Inventing is indefinitely more beautiful than having invented“ Karl Benz The automotive industry and climate change Foreword Framework and dynamics of the CO2 (r)evolution Foreword As we head towards the opening of the 2007 International Motor Show Cars (IAA) in Frankfurt, the CO2 discussion in the automotive industry is continuing at an intense pace. Climate change and CO2 reduction have garnered enormous quantities of press coverage in both industry and general media. As a result, we are witnessing today a heightened public awareness which is in turn stimulating strong consumer expectations for regulators and the automotive industry to address this top priority issue. Due to mounting public debate and regulatory pressures, we are currently seeing strong efforts and renewed investments by manufacturers and suppliers in providing solutions to the CO2 reduction challenge. As opposed to other environmental regulations affecting the auto industry, this time the solutions and strategies available are more complex and go far beyond the simple question of which is the most suitable engine technology. Both the auto industry’s response to a regulatory framework as well as its competitive positioning as a result of it, will depend on the nature of the detailed legislation itself. Environment protection groups are calling for greater legal enforcement and new, stricter laws, the EU and local governments are themselves considering a variety of regulatory measures, like CO2 emission limits or emission-based taxation. Responding to this, automakers emphasize the negative effects a proposed legislation might have and refer instead on technological improvements either already achieved or still upcoming. Furthermore, competitive battle lines between German, French and Italian manufacturers are being drawn up as to which strategic course of action the EU should employ to regulate CO2 emissions. Given their fleet structure, the Italians and French prefer a blanket approach in line with a uniform fleet limit, while most German companies call for a differentiated approach, based for instance on weight or segment of the vehicles and thereby request an equitable contribution to the required increase in fuel efficiency by all manufacturers. On the other side of the spectrum, consumers continue to face uncertainties and have a myriad of questions that still need to be addressed. Our study aims to investigate and analyse the framework, the challenges and the dynamics of the CO2 reduction puzzle in the automotive sector by shedding light on the fundamental issues and putting them in context: What are the overall motivating factors behind the environmental ambitions of the regulators? Where does the automotive industry stand in view of vehicle emissions and the efforts to reduce them? What are the current regulatory approaches towards achieving stricter CO2 targets and what supply-side approaches are there available to achieve such emission levels? Finally, the question needs to be examined as to what the consumer’s position is in all this and how the demand for cleaner vehicles can best be stimulated? These are complex, interdependent and vital questions for the auto industry, explored by the experts of the PwC Automotive Advisory Practice and the PwC Automotive Institute (AUTOFACTS), namely Andreas Bockwinkel, Christian Johansson and Calum MacRae, whom we wish to cordially thank for the production of this study. Stuttgart, September 2007 Karl Gadesmann Felix Kuhnert Partner, EMEA Automotive Leader Partner, German Automotive Advisory Leader PricewaterhouseCoopers AG PricewaterhouseCoopers AG 3 The automotive industry and climate change Contents Framework and dynamics of the CO2 (r)evolution Contents Foreword ...............................................................................................................................3 List of figures.........................................................................................................................6 Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................10 Executive summary.............................................................................................................13 A Living in a changing environment .............................................................................20 1 Climate change – the global challenge of the 21st century......................................20 2 Energy security – the risk of inaccessible or uneconomic resources .......................22 3 Kyoto Protocol – the underlying global commitment ................................................24 B The automotive industry – the usual suspect ...........................................................27 1 The automotive industry in light of emissions...........................................................27 1.1 The role of the automotive industry in the CO2 discussion.......................................27 1.2 Automotive manufacturers – the voluntary offer to reduce emissions......................32 2 Enforcing the automotive industry – the legal framework.........................................33 2.1 Current regulatory environment – setting the scene.................................................33 2.2 EU and local approaches to reach CO2 targets........................................................37 C Supply-side approaches – providing clean vehicles.................................................41 1 Alternative fuels – CO2 reduction without further ado?.............................................43 1.1 Biofuels – renewable and clean................................................................................43 1.2 Gas – the neglected fossil fuel..................................................................................50 2 Engine concepts for now and the future ...................................................................51 2.1 Internal Combustion Engines – continuous improvement ........................................51 2.2 Hybridisation – A smooth transition from add-on to alternative systems..................57 2.3 Hydrogen – the future of automobile propulsion?.....................................................62 3 Beyond engine technology – further potential in the periphery ................................66 D Demand-side (re)action – the key to CO2 reduction.................................................78 1 Changing the demand side – the real challenge ......................................................78 1.1 The customer mindset – a barrier to low emission vehicle acceptance in the past .....................................................................................................................78 4 The automotive industry and climate change Contents Framework and dynamics of the CO2 (r)evolution 1.2 Cost – are automakers overstating the negative impact of the CO2 measures? ................................................................................................................80 1.3 Steering consumer demand – the role of taxation....................................................81 1.4 Eco-driving – a signpost from consumers ................................................................85 2 Feedback from the consumer ...................................................................................86 E Outlook – pathways and success strategies ..........................................................110 1 Potential pathways for the automotive future .........................................................110 2 Strategies for success – in search of sustainable answers....................................115 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................119 Internet references ............................................................................................................122 Expert interviews...............................................................................................................123 Methodology customer research.......................................................................................124 Contacts ............................................................................................................................125 5 The automotive industry and climate change List of figures Framework and dynamics of the CO2 (r)evolution List of figures Fig. 1 Customers’ judgement on hybrids .......................................................................15 Fig. 2 Overall assessment of emission reduction technologies – as of today...............17 Fig. 3 Development of global powertrain production .....................................................19 Fig. 4 Model of greenhouse effect .................................................................................21 Fig. 5 Impacts of the climate change – aridity landscape..............................................22 Fig. 6 Oil price development (1999–2007) ....................................................................23 Fig. 7 Expected world oil demand (1980–2030)............................................................24 Fig. 8 EU burden sharing agreement of Kyoto Protocol targets 2008 to 2012..............25 Fig. 9 GHG emissions from the transport sector ...........................................................27 Fig. 10 Distribution of CO2 emissions by sector
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