Myint Zaw April 2017
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Re-visiting Cyclone Nargis of Myanmar: vulnerability, resiliency and the dynamics of recovery in the Ayeyarwady Delta A dissertation submitted to the Australian National University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Myint Zaw April 2017 Declaration of originality I, Myint Zaw, declare that this thesis, submitted in fulfillment of the requirement for the award of Doctor of Philosophy, in the Crawford School of Public Policy, College of Asia and the Pacific, the Australian National University, is wholly my own work unless otherwise referred or acknowledged. This thesis has not been submitted for qualification at any other academic institutions. © Copyright by Myint Zaw April 2017 i Acknowledgements I would like to thank to Dr. Helen James for bringing me to the finish-line with comments, suggestions and care. I am also grateful to Dr. Megan Poore who brought me back to track whenever I wavered in this PhD process. May I also say thanks to my supervisor Dr. Daniel Cornell who accompanied me in various endeavors of my academic journey. For a pleasant time in the Stanner Building of Crawford School and Graduate House, I would like to thank Ma Nilar Aung, Ma Khaing Khaing Soe, Thin Pyie Oo, Su Lay Nyo and Ma Su Su Lin. For my field work and data collection, my thanks go to Nyan Thar, Ma Mi, Ma Su Nandar Lwin, Ko Zu Gyi and Pho Naw as well as people from Paung Ku. I also thank to all the villagers and community-based organizations from 45 villages from the Delta. The research is as much of their contribution as mine. My thanks also go to Mr. Trevor Wilson who helped me in final process of thesis. For professional copy-editing support, I also say my sincere thanks to Ms. Karin Hosking. Without the Australia award scholarship, this research and academic journey could not have happened. Thanks to DFAT for its generous support. My appreciation also extends to Ms. Billie Headon, Ms. Ngan, Ms. Ida and Ms. Aishah from the Crawford School for their kind support. I am fortunate to receive much love and support from my mother – Daw Myint Myint, Ko Thet Hlaing, Daw Tin Tin Win (Ju), Saya Tar, Saya Kyaw Thu and Kay. It is my hope and inspiration that my work will reflect their Mettā (love) and Pyinnya (wisdom) as in indication of my gratitude to them. ii Abstract In 2008, Cyclone Nargis devastated the low-lying Ayeyarwady Delta and more than 150,000 people died during the storm. It was the worst natural disaster in Myanmar’s history and globally it was one of the deadliest cyclones of all time. This thesis assesses the implications of Cyclone Nargis for the human security of delta communities in the past and the future. Using Cyclone Nargis as the focus event, the research investigates multiple dimensions of pre-existing vulnerability, strengths and weaknesses in the early warning and emergency response systems, and the dynamics of post-impact recovery. It argues that the roots of vulnerability and resilience were situated in the history of the national political regime in place at the time of the cyclone. The research is based on community narratives collected in 45 villages from three different marginal zones of the Ayeyarwady Delta. This study argues that disaster risk reduction and the promotion of human security in the Delta requires the expansion of community-based processes focusing on building community resilience and the better utilization of locally relevant physical assets for improved safety. These lessons from Cyclone Nargis should be incorporated into the national DRR framework. More broadly, beyond Myanmar this place-based study of rural communities should inform the connected issues of development, governance and disaster risk reduction. iii Acronyms ASEAN The Association of Southeast Asian Nations APBU Asia-Pacific Broadcasting Union BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BSPP Burma Socialist Programme Party CDMA Code division multiple access CHS The Commission on Human Security CIA Central Intelligence Agency DaLa Damage and Loss Assessment DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade DFID The Department for International Development, United Kingdom DMH Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Myanmar DRR Disaster risk reduction Eco-DRR Eco-system based disaster risk reduction EWS Early warning system FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GAD General Administration Department GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIS Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems GTS Global Telecommunication System iv HFA Hyogo Framework for Action ICT Information and Communications Technology IDSN International Dalit Solidarity Network INFORM Index of Risk Management IHLC Integrated Household Living Condition JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency MDRRWG Myanmar Disaster Risk Reduction Working Group MHA Ministry of Home Affairs MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MIMU Myanmar Information Management Unit MOI Ministry of Information MTSAT Multifunctional Satellite Images MSWRR Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement NGO Non-governmental Organization PAR Pressure and Release PONJA Post-Nargis Joint Assessment PONREPP Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan R2P Responsibility to Protect RMSC Regional Specialized Meteorological Center RSMC Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre SPDC State Peace and Development Council v SLORC State Law and Order Restoration Council TCG Tripartitie Core Group UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNESCAP The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UN-Habitat United Nations Human Settlements Programme UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNTHS UN Trust Fund for Human Security VDRMC Village disaster risk management committee VTA Village Tract Assessment WFP World Food Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization vi Table of Contents DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY .......................................................................................... I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... II ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................... IV TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................ VII LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. XI LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. XII LIST OF BOXES ................................................................................................................... XIII CHAPTER 1 ........................................................................................................................... 14 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 14 1.1 Statement of the problem .................................................................................................. 15 1.2 Research objectives .......................................................................................................... 18 1.3 Research questions ........................................................................................................... 19 1.4 Scope of the research ....................................................................................................... 19 1.5 Significance of the research .............................................................................................. 20 1.6 Background to Cyclone Nargis .......................................................................................... 23 1.7 Background to the Ayeyarwady Delta ............................................................................... 25 1.8 Chapter overview .............................................................................................................. 26 CHAPTER 2 ........................................................................................................................... 30 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................ 30 2. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 30 2.1 Human security ................................................................................................................. 31 2.2. Human security debates ................................................................................................... 32 2.3 Human security in disaster risk management .................................................................... 36 2.4 The human security in the context of Myanmar ................................................................. 37 2.5 Human security issues in the study of Cyclone Nargis ...................................................... 39 2.5.1 Human security and R2P ........................................................................................... 40 2.5.2 Community security ..................................................................................................