SUSTAINABLE AVIATION CO2 ROAD-MAP Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map 2016 © Sustainable Aviation, Dec 2016
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SUSTAINABLE AVIATION CO2 ROAD-MAP www.sustainableaviation.co.uk Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map 2016 © Sustainable Aviation, Dec 2016 Launched in 2005, Sustainable Aviation brings together the main players from UK airlines, airports, aerospace manufacturers and air navigation service providers to set out a collective and long term strategy to ensure a sustainable future for UK aviation. CLEANER QUIETER SMARTER Find out more at www.sustainableaviation.co.uk www.sustainableaviation.co.uk Page 1 of 83 Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map 2016 © Sustainable Aviation, Dec 2016 FOREWORD BY SUSTAINABLE AVIATION’S ADVISORY BOARD The climate policy landscape has seen dramatic changes in 2016. The Paris Agreement was ratified and entered into force on 4th November, and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed an international deal to tackle growth in carbon emissions beyond 2020 using market-based measures. Closer to home, we have the public voting to leave the European Union and the Government supporting the Airports Commission’s recommendation for an additional runway at Heathrow. Since 1990 we have also seen UK aviation emissions rise both in absolute terms and as a percentage of UK emissions as other sectors decarbonise. Aviation now accounts for over 7% of UK CO2 emissions. Given these seismic shifts, the 2016 CO2 Road-Map produced by Sustainable Aviation (SA) could not be timelier. The CO2 Road-Map is the flagship report of SA. This report updates its 2012 Road-Map which set out a suggested pathway for UK aviation out to 2050. Despite an expected 150% rise in air traffic between 2010 and 2050, the 2012 Road-Map showed a scenario for how a combination of changes to operations, to the fleet and the introduction of alternative fuels could lead to limited emission increase. The Road-Map also suggested market-based measures could be used to halve net emissions by 2050. In this new Road-Map the proposed future pathway and the contribution from the different wedges are largely unchanged. However, the Road-Map does an excellent job of examining each of these wedges and their impact on UK aviation emissions. This new evaluation accounts for increased runway capacity. It also considers increased knowledge on sustainable fuels and future fleets. The SA Advisory Board welcomes this new Road-Map and we acknowledge the efforts that all parts of the industry have made to decarbonise both immediately and going forward. We think the Road-Map sets a good level of ambition that is broadly in line with the UK Committee on Climate Change recommendations. It also goes about half way towards the long-term climate goals of balancing sources and sinks of carbon in the second half of this century articulated in the Paris agreement, when market based measures are accounted for. Going forward we would encourage SA to identify the key practical interventions that would support the UK aviation industry both to implement this level of ambition and to grow the level of ambition across the industry. Lastly, as stated in the report, CO2 should not be considered in isolation, as other aviation emissions which also have a warming effect need to be accounted for. We look forward to a continued close working relationship with this important UK industry. The SA Advisory Board The Sustainable Aviation Advisory Board works with Sustainable Aviation to provide independent advice and feedback. It provides rigorous challenge to the SA Council in order to enable it to reach its cleaner, quieter, smarter goals effectively and efficiently. www.sustainableaviation.co.uk Page 2 of 83 Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map 2016 © Sustainable Aviation, Dec 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This CO2 Road-Map, like its predecessor published in 2012, demonstrates the potential for the UK to accommodate significant aviation growth to 2050 without a substantial increase in CO2 emissions, through a better than doubling of carbon efficiency. UK aviation can accommodate significant growth to 2050 without a substantial increase in CO2 emissions. We also illustrate the potential reduction of net CO2 emissions through internationally agreed market-based measures. Key findings Through the adoption of newer, more efficient aircraft, sustainable fuels and better air traffic management and operational procedures, the aviation industry in the UK will be able to accommodate significant growth through to 2050, including the effect of additional runway capacity in the South East of England, without a substantial increase in CO2 emissions. By 2050, UK aviation’s CO2 emissions are expected to be broadly in line with levels recommended by the Committee on Climate Change. Further improvements in the industry’s carbon intensity can be expected post-2050. The historic agreement for a global market based measure (MBM) at this year’s ICAO Assembly will support the global aviation industry’s drive for carbon neutral growth from 2020. It is also a major step towards the global industry’s longer term goal of halving its net CO2 emissions by 2050 versus 2005 levels. The industry’s focus is now, with Government support, to ensure the successful implementation of this global measure from 2020. Our Road-Map shows the level of contribution required from MBMs, additional to the within-sector improvements listed above, if UK aviation is also to halve its net CO2 emissions relative to 2005 levels whilst accommodating a more than doubling of demand over the same period. www.sustainableaviation.co.uk Page 3 of 83 Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map 2016 © Sustainable Aviation, Dec 2016 Improvements to our Road-Map since 2012 Our demand-growth assumptions now take account of additional runway capacity in the South- East of England, using forecasts from the Airports Commission. Recent international agreements concerning new-aircraft fuel-efficiency and market based measures for aviation have been taken into account. Our assessment of the potential for fleet fuel-efficiency improvements has been refined, taking more accurate account of the existing fleet and including recently-announced new aircraft types. Significant advances in sustainable aviation fuels have been taken into account. We have refined our analysis of near-term air traffic management efficiency improvements related to the target set by NATS, the UK’s air navigation service provider. Where Government can help Recognising aviation’s benefits to the economy, to employment and to connectivity, the UK Government has provided resource and assistance to enable a vibrant aviation and aerospace manufacturing industry in the UK. This report demonstrates how that support is yielding significant dividends. However, delivery of the full range of improvement initiatives set out in this document will require not only continued focus from the industry itself but also appropriate levels of ongoing support from Government - on both Research and Development (R&D) and policy - in the following specific areas: Airspace Reform: The Government should continue to support airspace modernisation in the UK, and maintain momentum towards improved air traffic management (ATM) collaboration across Europe. Supporting Research and Development (R&D): Just as the fuel-efficiency of new engines and aircraft today is the result of past investment in R&D, so the improved fuel-efficiency and commercial competitiveness of future engines and aircraft will hinge on R&D investment made today and in the future. In the coming years, the Government must ensure that access by UK aerospace industry to ongoing funding for high-value collaborative R&D remains in place. Sustainable Fuel Strategy: We welcome the UK Government's recent consultation on the inclusion of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in future policy for renewable transport fuels. We urge the Government to introduce binding legislation and to provide clear long-term policy as soon as possible to enable the UK to realise the opportunities for UK sustainable fuels production. The UK should develop a new vision and strategy for SAF, to ensure the development of UK expertise and innovation, to enable the UK to benefit from global opportunities in these emerging technologies and to deliver on the jobs and growth identified in our 2014 Sustainable Fuels Road- Map. Market Based Measures (MBMs): We welcome the role played by the UK Government in negotiations towards ICAO’s Global MBMs agreement, which supports as far as 2035 the global aviation industry’s carbon neutral growth ambition. Government should now focus on implementation details including avoiding duplication of coverage with regional schemes. Government should also start the process towards the global mechanism for 2035 onwards, which will be essential in supporting the global aviation industry’s commitment to reduce net aviation CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050, relative to 2005 levels, while increasing capacity in support of economic growth. www.sustainableaviation.co.uk Page 4 of 83 Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map 2016 © Sustainable Aviation, Dec 2016 Aviation in the UK UK aviation, comprising domestic and international flights departing from UK airports, accounted for some 7.4% of UK CO2 emissions in 2014. The UK aviation sector has a turnover of over £60 billion, contributes over £52 billion to our GDP1 and almost £9 billion in taxes, and directly or indirectly supports almost one million UK jobs. Our aerospace manufacturing sector generates annual exports of £26 billion and has a global market opportunity of £3.5 trillion over the next twenty years. As this document shows, the UK aviation industry is working hard to enhance its economic benefits while managing its carbon footprint through a better than doubling of carbon efficiency between 2010 and 2050. Sustainable Aviation members’ progress Airspace Management – by introducing more efficient aircraft routes and a range of other measures, NATS has made strong progress towards a target of reducing CO2 from aircraft under their control by 10% by 2020 relative to 2006 levels. Improvements made so far are saving more than a million tonnes of CO2 per year.