Missile Developments BALLISTIC, CRUISE MISSILE, AND MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS: TRADE AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS, FEBRUARY-JUNE 1996

CONTENTS

OVERVIEW, 147 BRAZIL CZECH REPUBLIC United Arab Emirates and Internal Developments, 151 with: United Kingdom, 157 AFGHANISTAN with: Belarus, Hungary, and with: GERMANY Argentina, 149 Russia, 151 India, 149 with: Australia, Russia, and United Belarus, Poland, and France, Italy, and United ARGENTINA States, 149 Russia, 151 States, 155 Internal Developments, 149 France, 151 EGYPT Ukraine and United with: France and United with: States, 157 Brazil, 149 Kingdom, 151 North Korea, 154 United States, 149 United States, 151 HUNGARY Russia, 154 with: AUSTRALIA BRUNEI ETHIOPIA Austria, India, Moldova, with: with: Internal Developments, 154 Romania, and Brazil, Russia, and United United States, 152 Switzerland, 150 States, 149 FINLAND BULGARIA Belarus, Czech Republic, and Israel and United States, 150 with: with: Russia, 151 Taiwan, 150 Russia, 155 Russia, 152 Israel and Sweden, 157 Thailand, 150 FRANCE CHINA INDIA AUSTRIA with: Internal Developments, 152 Internal Developments, 157 with: Brazil, 151 with: with: Hungary, India, Moldova, Brazil and United Belarus, 150 Afghanistan, 149 Romania, and Kingdom, 151 Iran and North Korea, 153 Austria, Hungary, Moldova, Switzerland, 150 Germany, Italy, and United Israel, 153 Romania, and States, 155 BAHRAIN Russia, 153 Switzerland, 150 Iran and Qatar, 155 with: Taiwan, 153 Pakistan and Russia, 159 Israel and United United States, 150 Ukraine, 153 Pakistan and United Kingdom, 155 United States, 154 States, 159 Italy and United BELARUS Russia, 159 COLOMBIA Kingdom, 155 Internal Developments, 150 Russia and United States, 160 with: Kuwait, 155 with: Ukraine, 160 China, 150 Venezuela, 154 Kuwait and United Czech Republic, Hungary, Kingdom, 156 INDONESIA COMMONWEALTH OF and Russia, 151 Pakistan, 156 with: INDEPENDENT STATES Czech Republic, Poland, and Russia, 156 Malaysia, Philippines, Internal Developments, 154 Russia, 151 Saudi Arabia, 156 Singapore, South Africa, Russia, 151 South Korea, 157 Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160

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Russia, 160 MALAYSIA RUSSIA SOUTH KOREA United Kingdom, 160 Internal Developments, 168 Internal Developments, 169 Internal Developments, 173 with: with: with: IRAN Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, Brazil, and United France, 157 Internal Developments, 161 Singapore, South Africa, States, 149 United States, 173 with: Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 Belarus, 151 China and North Korea, 153 SWEDEN Belarus, Czech Republic, and France and Qatar, 155 MOLDOVA with: Hungary, 151 Japan, 162 with: Hungary and Israel, 157 Belarus, Czech Republic, and Ukraine, 162 Austria, Hungary, India, Poland, 151 SWITZERLAND Romania, and IRAQ Bulgaria, 152 with: Switzerland, 150 Internal Developments, 162 China, 153 Austria, Hungary, India, with: NETHERLANDS Egypt, 154 Moldova, and Romania, 150 Russia and United States, 164 with: Finland, 155 Israel, 165 United Kingdom, 164 Libya, 167 France, 156 India, 159 TAIWAN ISRAEL NORTH KOREA India and Pakistan, 159 Internal Developments, 174 Internal Developments, 164 Internal Developments, 168 India and United States, 160 with: with: with: Indonesia, 160 Australia, 150 Australia and United China and Iran, 153 Iraq and United States, 164 China, 153 States, 150 Egypt, 154 Kuwait, 167 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- China, 153 Pakistan and Taiwan, 168 South Africa, 171 pines, South Africa, Taiwan, France and United United States, 168 Ukraine, 171 and Vietnam, 160 Kingdom, 155 PAKISTAN Ukraine and United THAILAND Hungary and Sweden, 157 Internal Developments, 168 States, 172 Internal Developments, 174 Singapore, 164 with: United Arab Emirates, 172 with: Switzerland, 165 France, 156 United Arab Emirates and Australia, 150 Turkey, 165 India and Russia, 159 United States, 172 United Kingdom, 165 TURKEY India and United States, 159 United Nations, 172 United States, 165 Internal Developments, 174 North Korea and Taiwan, 168 United States, 172 with: ITALY South Africa, 169 Yugoslavia, 172 Israel, 165 with: Ukraine, 169 SAUDI ARABIA France and United United States, 169 with: UKRAINE Kingdom, 155 with: PHILIPPINES France, 156 France, Germany, and United China, 153 Internal Developments, 169 States, 146 SINGAPORE Germany and United with: with: States, 157 JAPAN Indonesia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- India, 160 with: Singapore, South Africa, pines, South Africa, Taiwan, Iran, 162 Iran, 162 Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 and Vietnam, 160 Libya, 167 United States, 167 POLAND Israel, 164 Pakistan, 169 KUWAIT with: SOUTH AFRICA Russia, 171 with: Belarus, Czech Republic, and Internal Developments, 173 Russia and United States, 172 France, 155 Russia, 151 with: United States, 174 France and United QATAR Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Kingdom, 156 with: pines, Singapore, Taiwan, with: Russia, 167 France and Iran, 155 and Vietnam, 160 France and United United States, 167 United Kingdom, 169 Pakistan, 169 Kingdom, 157 LIBYA Russia, 171 Russia, 172 ROMANIA with: Russia and United States, 172 with: Netherlands, 167 United Kingdom, 175 Austria, Hungary, India, Ukraine, 167 United States, 175 Moldova, and United States, 168 Switzerland, 169

146 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

UNITED KINGDOM YUGOSLAVIA with: with: Brazil and France, 151 Russia, 172 OVERVIEW France and Israel, 155 France and Italy, 155 Iraq’s continued evasion of United Nations Security Coun- France and Kuwait, 156 France and United Arab cil Resolution 687 and China’s missile exercises near Tai- Emirates, 157 wan featured prominently between February and June 1996. Indonesia, 160 UNSCOM (U.N. Special Commission in Iraq) Chief Rolf Iraq, 164 Ekeus revealed that Baghdad was concealing between six and Israel, 165 16 Scud missiles on trucks which traveled around the coun- Qatar, 169 try between different military installations. Also, missile in- United Arab Emirates, 175 spectors were denied access to several suspected weapon sites UNITED NATIONS in Iraq. According to Ekeus, some of the institutions ac- with: cused of hiding Iraq’s proscribed weapons-related materials Russia, 172 are also responsible for Saddam Hussein’s security, and this UNITED STATES explains why Baghdad was unwilling to give the commission Internal Developments, 175 access to certain sites. However, in late June, Iraq agreed to with: give UNSCOM “immediate, complete and unconditional Argentina, 149 access” to all of its suspected weapons sites and provided the Australia, Brazil, and commission with what it described as “final documents” on Russia, 149 its missile and chemical and biological weapon programs. Australia and Israel, 150 Ekeus said that although Baghdad continued to hide weap- Bahrain, 150 ons, components, and documentation, he was confident the Brazil, 151 new agreement would work. In a related development, the Brunei, 152 U.S. State Department informed Congress there was “no in- China, 154 France, Germany, and dication” that the Russian government had “sanctioned” the Italy, 155 transfer of missile gyroscopes and accelerometers to Iraq in Germany and Ukraine, 157 1995. A U.S. government investigation determined that the India and Pakistan, 159 Russian-made components had been smuggled out of the India and Russia, 160 country. If the investigation had implicated the Russian gov- Israel, 165 ernment, Moscow’s commitment to fulfill its obligations as a Japan, 167 new member of the Missile Technology Control Regime Kuwait, 167 (MTCR) would have been cast into serious doubt. North Korea, 168 Pakistan, 169 In Asia, China’s Second Artillery Corps test-launched four Russia, 172 600 km-range, nuclear-capable Dong Feng-15 (DF-15, M-9) South Korea, 173 ballistic missiles. Their trajectories took them from the main- Ukraine, 174 land to the waters off Taiwan’s two busiest ports, Keelung United Arab Emirates, 175 and Kaohsiung. The tests were perceived in Taipei as delib- VENEZUALA erate intimidation during the three-week run-up to Taiwan’s with: first direct presidential election. However, polls taken in Colombia, 154 Taiwan just before the election showed that the test launches served only to bolster support for the elections among the VIETNAM with: Taiwanese electorate. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- Theater missile defense (TMD) efforts progressed in Is- pines, Singapore, South rael with the second successful test flight of an Arrow-2 anti- Africa, and Taiwan, 160 tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) from the Palmahim launch site near Tel Aviv. The program is funded jointly by the United States and Israel. Project heads said the first operational

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 147 Missile Developments

Arrow system should be deployed by the end of 1998 and ing Missile Threats to North America During the Next 15 that Israel will have a “significant missile defense capabil- Years, predicted that “no rogue nation will have the capabil- ity” by the end of the century. A U.S.-Israeli agreement on ity to threaten the U.S. with missiles before 2010.” Retiring TMD will bolster Israel’s missile defenses. According to director of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Organization U.S. officials, the agreement focuses on supplying Israel Lt. Gen. Malcolm O’Neill questioned this prediction. He ar- with better early-warning information. Also, Washington gued that the NIE did not account for “wildcards” such as has pledged to increase financial support for the U.S.-Is- smuggling or gaps in U.S. capability, including the technol- raeli Nautilus program to develop a laser capable of shoot- ogy for conducting surveillance of underground facilities. ing down rockets such as the Katyusha, which Hezbollah guerrillas have been firing into Israel from southern Leba- Wyn Bowen and Kimber Cramer non. NOTE: India moved closer to acquiring anti-missile systems from Russia in order counter the threat posed by Pakistan’s Chi- A date marked with an “*” indicates that an event was nese-made M-11 missiles. Although Moscow has offered reported on that date; a date without an “*” is the date to sell India its S-300V air defense system, New Delhi wants when an event actually occurred. to purchase Russia’s most advanced anti-missile system, the The numbers listed in parentheses following the biblio- S-300PMU, because of its “unprecedented capabilities” in graphic references refer to the identification number of the intercepting ballistic missiles. Additionally, India is devel- document in the CNS Missile Database from which the news oping an indigenous anti-missile system known as the Akash. summaries are abstracted. Because of the rapidly changing Finally, debate continued in the United States over the nature of the subject matter, The Nonproliferation Review accuracy of the National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 (NIE is unable to guarantee that the information reported herein 95-19). In November 1995, the estimate, subtitled Emerg- is complete or accurate, and disclaims liability to any party for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions.

148 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

ture the Customs Department will control meeting between President Menem and Bra- all arms transfers. Cavallo said the previous zilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso AFGHANISTAN system encouraged the “import of arms and scheduled to begin on 4/7/96. Argentina has dangerous technologies” through secret laws been evaluating whether to design its own over the past 15 years and that privatization space rockets or to purchase them from of FM will ensure that future arms produc- abroad. According to Defense Minister AFGHANISTAN WITH INDIA tion will focus on the Argentine military. He Camilion, Argentina must decide how to added that the bill corresponded with “develop observation satellites and other 3/23/96 Argentina’s decision to dismantle the Con- space capabilities.” The Muslim newspaper reported that India dor missile, a project that constituted “the Telam (Buenos Aires), 4/5/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-068, has provided Afghanistan’s Rabbani-Mas’ud most cold-blooded export of technology to 4/5/96 (6027). Maria Helena Tachinardi, Gazeta Mercantil (Sao Paulo), 2/28/96; in FBIS-LAT-96- regime with assistance to make Scud missile countries that should have never received it, 060, 3/27/96 (6027). Jose Casado, O Estado De Sao systems operational. which was not even Argentine technology Paulo (Sao Paulo), 2/24/96, p. A4; in FBIS-LAT- Muslim (Islamabad), 3/23/96, p.12; in FBIS-NES-96- because it was developed by German com- 96-042, 2/24/96 (6027). Aviation Week & Space 059, 3/23/96 (6065). panies in our territory.” Cavallo said that Technology, 3/4/96, p. 49 (6027). after the 1990-91 Gulf War the U.N. discov- ered a facility in Iraq similar to one that ARGENTINA WITH UNITED STATES ARGENTINA manufactured the Condor missile in Cordoba. 2/29/96 Clarin (Buenos Aires), 5/2/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-089, NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin and 5/2/96 (6088). Noticias Argentinas (Buenos Aires), Conrado Virotto, president of the Argentine 5/17/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-097, 5/17/96 (6088). Space Agency, extended a five-year space INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS agreement initially signed by the U.S. and ARGENTINA WITH BRAZIL Argentina in 1991. 5/1/96 Space News, 3/4/96-3/10/96, p. 2 (6028). The Argentine government declassified 24 2/27/96 secret arms export decrees. President Carlos Argentine Defense Minister Oscar Camilion Menem said this would allow Argentineans said it was a mistake for Argentina and Bra- to see how officials from the previous ad- zil not to have collaborated on space projects AUSTRALIA ministration sold weapons to warring nations. in the past. Camilion cited the importance Two of the declassified decrees—2719/92 of saving money as one of the principal rea- and 1903/93—referred to Argentina’s dis- sons for cooperation. According to Maria mantlement of the Condor-2 missile program. Helena Tachinardi, a Sao Paulo-based jour- AUSTRALIA WITH BRAZIL, RUSSIA, AND Menem said the Condor project was “a real nalist, government sources have indicated UNITED STATES aberration” that cost Argentina a great deal that the two countries plan to co-produce of money. The president said he had “issued satellites, conduct research, and build an 3/25/96* instructions to carefully investigate the Con- SLV in the future. Tachinardi said that a bi- The Russian-U.S. venture International dor project’s impact on Argentina.” Menem lateral Argentine-Brazilian working group Launch Services (ILS) is exploring the pos- added that most of the weapons sold by the on space cooperation was created in 1989. sibility of establishing a new launch site for previous administration went to Iran. At the fifth meeting of this group in 1/96, the Proton booster at Alcantara in Brazil, Telam (Buenos Aires), 5/2/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-087, the delegates finalized the details of an Darwin in Australia, or Cape Canaveral in 5/2/96 (6086). Telam (Buenos Aires), 4/30/96; in agreement on the civilian use of outer space. the U.S. Russia’s Khrunichev currently uses FBIS-LAT-96-086, 4/30/96 (6086). Telam (Buenos Aires), 4/5/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-068, Kazakstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome to 4/5/96 (6027). Maria Helena Tachinardi, Gazeta launch its Proton rockets. However, space 5/16/96 Mercantil (Sao Paulo), 2/28/96; in FBIS-LAT-96- launch locations in Australia and Brazil Argentine Economy Minister Domingo 060, 3/27/96 (6027). Jose Casado, O Estado De Sao Paulo (Sao Paulo), 2/24/96, p. A4; in FBIS-LAT- would be better suited for launching satel- Cavallo announced that the Menem admin- 96-042, 2/24/96 (6027). Aviation Week & Space lites because of their proximity to the equa- istration had issued a decree to privatize the Technology, 3/4/96, p. 49 (6027). tor. Australia’s Space Transportation defense firm Military Industries (FM) and Systems Ltd (STS) is competing with a pro- will send a bill to Congress that would elimi- 4/5/96 posal to build the Asia Pacific Space Launch nate “the legal secrecy on arms imports and An Argentine Foreign Ministry source said Center at Gunn Point on the Timor and exports.” The Finance Ministry will oversee Brazil and Argentina would conclude “a co- Afarura Seas, in Australia’s Northern Terri- the privatization process, which will begin operation agreement on space activities en- tory. According to STS spokesman Tony within the next three months and is sched- visaging the use of missile-launch bases Ryan, the proposed $850 million Australian uled to “last no more than a year.” In the fu- located in northern Brazil” during a two-day

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 149 Missile Developments facility would include a launch pad, a con- Applied Technologies, has an over-water tems” contained parachutes. trol center, and a facility for mounting satel- search range of roughly 300 km and a bistatic R. Stroehle, Kurier (Vienna), 3/5/96, p. 13; in FBIS- lites on SLVs. STS Chairman Mike Ahern linear array with a 50 m receive portion. The TAC-95-005, 3/5/96 (6017). said “four major international organizations” system uses a “frequency-modulated continu- are willing to take part in the project if it ous-wave scheme”, which, according to proceeds, “including companies from Asia, Telstra, is more effective than pulsed emis- BAHRAIN Australia, Europe and the United States.” sions. It can also track direct-wave emissions According to Charles H. Lloyd, president of to pinpoint early trajectories of land-based ILS’s Proton Division, a Proton M launched tactical ballistic missiles. Australia’s Defence from Brazil would be able to launch two Science and Technology Organization hired BAHRAIN WITH UNITED STATES Hughes HS 601-class satellites simulta- Telstra in 1996 to develop and market the neously, in comparison to only one at radar. 5/96 Baikonur. The Brazilian Space Agency International Defense Review, 4/96, p.5 (6343). (AEB) is also developing a satellite launch The U.S. Congress was informed that center at Alcantara from which it intends to AUSTRALIA WITH THAILAND Bahrain is seeking to acquire “151 MLRS launch both domestic and foreign SLVs. The [multiple launch rocket system] extended- Proton could launch a 7.4 ton (6,300 pounds) 3/20/96 range pods and 51 reduced-range pods” from payload into geosynchronous transfer orbit An official from Thailand’s Thai Satellite the U.S. The U.S. has provided Bahrain with from Alcantara, in comparison to a 3.9 ton Telecommunications said the firm will fi- nine MLRS launchers in recent years. payload from Baikonur. Florida Governor nance 50 percent of the preparation work for Bahrain also wants the Army Tactical Mis- Lawton Chiles has proposed that Cape the development of a commercial space sile System (ATACMS) to enhance the fire- Canaveral should be modified to accommo- launch facility in northern Australia. Accord- power of its MLRS launchers. ATACMS has date foreign rockets such as the Proton SLV. ing to Tony Ryan, spokesman for Australia’s yet to be cleared for sale to Bahrain. Philip Finnegan, Defense News, 6/10/96-6/16/96, p. Michael K. French, Space News, 3/25/96-3/31/96, Space Transportation Systems, the prepara- 16 (6198). pp. 4, 25 (6089). Joseph C. Anselmo, Aviation Week tion work is scheduled for completion by 4/ & Space Technology, 4/15/96, pp. 22-23 (6163). 97. The work will include an “environmen- tal impact study and consultations of techni- AUSTRALIA WITH ISRAEL AND cal, economic and political matters.” BELARUS UNITED STATES Michael K. French, Space News, 3/25/96-3/31/96, pp. 4, 25 (6089). 4/29/96* The AGM-142 version of Israel’s Popeye INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS standoff attack missile—manufactured by AUSTRIA Rafael—was selected to upgrade the strik- 2/96 ing power of the Royal Australian Air Force’s Major General Oleg Kruglyakov, com- (RAAF) F-111C bomber aircraft. Australia mander of the “25th missile arsenal” in is scheduled to sign the contract with Rafael Belarus, was arrested and charged with steal- and its marketing and co-production partner, AUSTRIA WITH HUNGARY, INDIA, ing precious metals extracted from missile Lockheed Martin Electronics & Missiles of MOLDOVA, ROMANIA, AND components. According to Major General the U.S., in 5/96. The contract will provide SWITZERLAND Anatoly Glyukov, the republic’s military for the initial transfer of an undisclosed num- prosecutor, the case against Kruglyakov in- ber of AGM-142 missiles, which are sched- 3/3/96 volves the theft of 7 kg of platinum from the uled for deployment with the RAAF in early Customs officials in the Feldkirch area of arsenal and the disappearance of two high- 1998. Austria intercepted a truck carrying what ranking officers who worked there. Gregor Ferguson, Defense News, 4/29/96-5/5/96, p. were thought to be “guiding systems for tor- 4 (6007). Larisa Sayenko, Moscow News, 2/22/96-2/28/96, p. pedoes or missiles” from Moldova. The sus- 13 (6105). pect items had been transported through AUSTRALIA WITH TAIWAN Romania and Hungary and were destined to BELARUS WITH CHINA be flown from Zurich, Switzerland, to India. 4/96* According to Austrian Security Director 3/19/96-3/25/96 Taiwan is considering purchasing an Austra- Elmar Marent, illicit arms shipments are of- A 14-member delegation from China’s PLA lian high-frequency, surface-wave radar for ten transported around Europe to conceal General Staff, led by General Van Zhun [as use in cueing the Sky Bow missile defense both the country of origin and the destina- transliterated], observed Belarusian missile system. The radar, developed by Telstra tion. The crates containing the “guiding sys- brigade combat exercises, including troop

150 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments training at a test range. 96-061, 3/27/96 (6106). Chrystia Freeland and Mat- with France’s Societe Europeenne de Pro- H. Markushyn, Vo Slavu Rodiny (Minsk), p. 1; in thew Kaminski, Financial Times, 2/28/96, p. 3 pulsion (SEP) for the installation of equip- (6106). FBIS-SOV-96-062, 3/26/96 (6448). ment to test small rocket engines. Flight International, 6/12/96-6/18/96, p. 26 (6178). BELARUS WITH CZECH REPUBLIC, 3/27/96 President Alyaksandr Lukashenka pledged HUNGARY, AND RUSSIA BRAZIL WITH FRANCE AND to remove the last 18 Russian missiles from UNITED KINGDOM 4/5/96 Belarus by the end of 1996, but cautioned against rushing the withdrawal process. Belarusian First Deputy Foreign Minister 2/29/96 Valeriy Tsyapkala suggested at a press con- Lukashenka denied reports that plans exist to station Russian nuclear weapons “in Air Force General Reginaldo dos Santos said ference in Minsk that Russia might discon- Brazilian officials are negotiating with firms tinue the withdrawal of nuclear missiles from Belarus and [the] Kaliningrad region.” Interfax (Moscow), 3/27/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-061, in the U.K. and France for the purchase of Belarus if the Czech Republic and Hungary 3/27/96 (6106). Chrystia Freeland and Matthew technology that could reduce development joined NATO and accepted the deployment Kaminski, Financial Times, 2/28/96, p. 3 (6106). costs for the VLS. The CTA director said of nuclear missiles on their territories. that negotiations with British Aerospace and Tsyapkala expressed surprise that certain France’s Societe d’Applications Generales countries would consider allowing the de- d’Electricite et de Mecanique have centered ployment of tactical nuclear missiles on their BRAZIL on Brazil’s acquisition of an inertial naviga- territory because such a move would make tion system, which the VLS needs to accu- them vulnerable to a future nuclear attack rately deploy satellites into orbit. Brazil by Russia. might also be interested in obtaining liquid Interfax (Moscow), 4/5/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-068, 4/ INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS propellants and thermal protection for the 5/96 (6103). Interfax (Moscow), 4/4/96; in FBIS- SOV-96-067, 4/4/96 (6103). VLS’s engines in the future. After the maiden 2/13/96* flight of the VLS, scheduled for 1997, the Brazil’s SCD-2A data collection satellite is BELARUS WITH CZECH REPUBLIC, rocket will be launched once every 12 scheduled to be launched on the Veiculo months over the following four years to “per- POLAND, AND RUSSIA Lancador de Satellites (VLS) rocket’s fect the design.” Brazil will simultaneously maiden flight in mid-1997. The VLS was 4/4/96 develop an advanced version of the VLS to originally scheduled to launch the SCD-2 incorporate both liquid and solid fuels for Belarusian President Alyaksandr satellite but was unable to do so because of carrying heavier payloads. According to Bra- Lukashenka said that Belarus would react delays caused by a lack of funds; the major- zilian officials, a 30 percent reduction in VLS with “adequate measures” if NATO deployed ity of the $12 million allocated for develop- development costs could reduce the rocket’s tactical nuclear weapons in Poland or the ment of the rocket in 1995 did not arrive until price to as little as $7 million per launch. Czech Republic. Lukashenka implied that 12/95. Brazilian Air Force General Joao Vaz, president of the Brasilia-based such measures might include keeping the Reginaldo dos Santos, director of the Aero- aerospace consulting firm Airways Interna- nuclear warheads currently located in space Technical Center (CTA), said that the tional, said procurement decisions and busi- Belarus, instead of returning them to Russia funds released in 12/95 will allow for the ness ventures must be concluded soon if the as planned. According to Lukashenka, 18 importation of electronic items “meeting VLS is to be operational by the end of the tactical nuclear missiles and three spare war- military specifications” made possible by 1990s. Brazil intends to produce basic tech- heads currently remain in Belarus. Brazil’s accession to the MTCR. In 1996, Interfax (Moscow), 4/4/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-067, 4/ nology domestically, while importing ad- 4/96 (6103). the VLS program is scheduled to receive vanced technologies. between eight and 10 million reals to com- Philip Finnegan, Defense News, 3/11/96-3/17/96, p. plete development of the launcher. 26 (6026). Philip Finnegan, Space News, 3/11/96-3/ BELARUS WITH RUSSIA Virginia Silveira, Gazeta Mercantil (Sao Paulo), 2/ 17/96, pp. 3, 21 (6026). 13/96, p. C3; in FBIS-LAT-96-062, 2/13/96 (6029). 2/27/96 BRAZIL WITH UNITED STATES President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Rus- BRAZIL WITH: sian President Boris Yeltsin agreed that Argentina, 149 3/1/96 Moscow will waive Minsk’s $500 million bill Australia, Russia, and United States, 149 The U.S. and Brazil signed a bilateral agree- for Russian natural gas in return for “the com- ment to cooperate in the areas of “commer- ponents of nuclear missiles which had been BRAZIL WITH FRANCE cial space” and nuclear energy. According withdrawn to Russia and dismantled there.” to a Western diplomat in Brazil, Brasilia’s Informatsionnoye Agentstvo Ekho Moskvy (Mos- cow), 2/27/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-040, 2/27/96 6/96 accession to the MTCR and its enactment of (6106). Interfax (Moscow), 3/27/96; in FBIS-SOV- Brazil concluded an $8.2 million agreement legislation to control trade in military tech-

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 151 Missile Developments nology have helped reduce U.S. concerns cussed the establishment of joint arms ven- plode. The LM3-B was carrying the Intelsat over technology transfers. tures and Bulgaria’s “receipt of new licenses” 708 satellite. Philip Finnegan, Space News, 3/11/96-3/17/96, pp. from Russia. Voronin and Ivan Kolev, deputy Flight International, 3/6/96-3/12/96, p. 19 (6132). 3, 21 (6026). chief of Bulgaria’s Interdepartmental Arms Council, head a working group which is pre- 3/96 paring for the 9/96 meeting of the Bulgar- A list of firms that contribute to China’s mis- BRUNEI ian-Russian Commission on Cooperation in sile programs was published to alert export- Specialized Production. At the meeting, Bul- ers to the risk of diversion by the end-user in garia hopes to obtain new licenses and re- China. The list comprises: Beijing Electron new old licenses for its military enterprises. Tube Plant, which provides support technol- Russia and Bulgaria are considering “joint ogy, raw materials, and smelting equipment BRUNEI WITH UNITED STATES production and appearance on third markets” for high-temperature soldering of liquid-fuel in the areas of optical electronics, artillery rocket engine combustion chambers; Beijing 6/11/96 and missile ammunition, and “automatic sys- Emulation Center, which performs simulated The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) in- tems of communications and fire control.” launch-vehicle experiments; Beijing Institute formed Congress that Brunei is seeking to Trud (Sofia), 5/30/96. p. 3; in FBIS-EEU-96-105, 5/ of Special Engineering Design, which is the purchase 48 Harpoon anti-ship missiles 30/96 (6180). nerve center for designing and building the (ASM) from McDonnell Douglas at a cost Xichang Space and Launch Center (XSLC) of $57 million. The DOD said the proposed and related special equipment; Beijing Uni- deal was consistent with the U.S. policy of CHINA versity of Aeronautics and Space Flight, helping friendly nations to “provide for their which has produced simulated aerodynamic own defense.” According to the Pentagon, flight conditions for missiles using a numeric Brunei wants to equip its patrol boats with control system; Changchun Applied Chem- the Harpoon missiles. istry Institute, which develops fuel binders Reuter, 6/11/96; in Executive News Service, 6/11/ INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 96 (6172). and propellants for solid rockets used on stra- tegic missiles and tactical rockets; Dalian 2/8/96* Institute of Chemical Physics, part of the China’s Northwest Industry University “suc- Chinese Academy of Sciences, which stud- BULGARIA cessfully designed” a miniaturized turbo jet ies combustion of rocket propellant and la- engine for use in unmanned jets and cruise ser devices; Harbin Industrial University, missiles. The China Aviation Industry Cor- which produces aluminum alloy plates used poration recently approved three prototypes on rocket casings; Southwest Aluminum Pro- of the engine. BULGARIA WITH RUSSIA cessing Plant, which manufactures Long Xinhua (Beijing), 2/8/96; in FBIS-CHI-96-028, 2/ 8/96 (5981). March-2E (LM-2E) large-forged rings; and 5/28/96 the United Study Center for Liquid Fuel Russian Deputy Minister for Defense Indus- 2/8/96 Rocket Propellant Technology, which stud- try Gennadiy Voronin held talks with the The “VXI automatic missile testing system,” ies liquid-fuel rocket engines for the Science heads of Bulgaria’s Electron Consortium and jointly developed by the Second Artillery and Technology University of National De- Metalkhim Holding and visited the HEMUS- Corps and Harbin Polytechnic University of fense. Risk Report, 3/96, p. 7 (6446). 96 international defense technology exhibi- China, underwent a successful evaluation. tion in Plovdiv, Bulgaria. Russia’s This is the first such Chinese system to ap- 3/27/96* Rosvooruzhenie displayed 20 items of ply advanced VXI bus technology to auto- China’s air force science personnel recently weapon technology at the exhibition, includ- matic missile testing. developed unmanned supersonic target ing the Tunguska air defense missile com- Jiefangjun Bao (Beijing), 2/10/96; in FBIS-CHI-96- plex and the Buk-M1 air defense rocket 032, 2/10/96 (5973). drones. These can be used to test live-fire complex. missiles and air armaments and can fly at Krasnaya Zvezda, 06/01/96, p. 3 (6369). Trud 2/14/96 high, medium, low and “extremely low” al- (Sofia), 5/30/96. p. 3; in FBIS-EEU-96-105, 5/30/ China’s Long March 3-B (LM3-B) rocket titudes. They are China’s first supersonic 96 (6180). exploded two seconds after initial launch drones and will fill a long-standing gap in from Xichang. China Great Wall Industry China’s missile testing program. 5/29/96 says that telemetry data from the booster Xinhua (Beijing), 3/27/96; in FBIS-CHI-96-061, 3/ 27/96 (6438). Russian Deputy Minister for Defense Indus- show that a failure in the inertial-guidance try Gennadiy Voronin and Bulgarian Deputy system caused the delivery vehicle to ex- Prime Minister Doncho Konakchiev dis-

152 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

5/23/96* Iran’s oil terminal on Kharg Island. The re- Kaosiung. The launches were part of planned Over the last several years, China’s Second port said that the Tondar is an ASM designed PLA exercises from 3/8-3/23. The exercises Artillery Corps has taken steps to increase to be launched by coastal batteries. Iran had included land and naval maneuvers, and the its “rapid mobile combat” [rapid deployment previously claimed it was developing a bal- missile launches were part of live-fire dem- force] capabilities, including the successful listic missile called the Tondar-68, which had onstrations. The exercises, particularly the completion of a number of important test a reported range of approximately 700 km. missile launches, directly preceded Taiwan’s launches. In order to enhance effectiveness, The Tondar-68 program was to have ben- first presidential election, held 3/23, and were the corps has focused on employing modern efited from Chinese and North Korean mis- intended to intimidate Taiwan’s government. technology. Better, more modern training of sile technology and assistance. It appears the Edward A. Gargan, New York Times, 3/8/96, p. A1 new Tondar missile might be a derivative of (6140). UPI in; Executive News Service, 3/8/96 missile crews has been a key element of re- (6124). Reuter, 3/8/96; in Executive News Service, search and has resulted in the development the Chinese-made C-801 ASM or the more 3/8/96 (6140). of a large, all purpose strategic missile simu- advanced C-802. The C-801 has a maximum lator and a complete simulator system for range of 80 km, which Iran has been attempt- 3/13/96 combat training of the strategic missile unit. ing to extend for some time. In a continuation of its military exercises, Scientists and experts have also developed James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 5/22/96, p. 17 (6195). China launched a fourth M-9 missile into the an “automatic missile testing machine” (see waters off Kaosiung. For both the 3/8 and 3/ 2/8/96 entry) which allows China “to rank 13 launches, China equipped the M-9s with CHINA WITH ISRAEL among the world powers” in strategic mis- telemetric warheads. These are non-explo- sile monitoring and tracking technology. 4/10/96* sive and use navigational survey instruments With respect to enhancing Chinese combat to collect and transmit missile-flight data. capabilities and developing an automated An electronics joint venture between two Markus Eliason, Washington Times, 3/13/96, p. A13 missile combat command-and-control sys- Israeli firms and China National Aero-Tech- (6127). tem, Second Artillery Corps experts have nology Import and Export Company has pro- accomplished a great deal, including devel- vided China with its first company capable 6/17/96 opment of the missile brigade control sys- of producing global positioning system Taiwanese Army army chief arms procure- tem, the electronic command system, and (GPS) navigational equipment. The venture ment officer, Kuo Chuan-sheng, revealed that “the commonly-used message processing is known as Beijing Catic-Azimuth Electron- the phased-array radar for the Tien Kung system.” Other achievements include in- ics. (Sky Bow) air-defense system was able to creasing combat effectiveness through bet- Flight International, 4/10/96-4/16/96, p. 18 (5968). detect China’s M-9 missile launches into ter technical reconnaissance, weather waters near Taiwan in 3/96. CHINA WITH RUSSIA forecasting, geographical surveying, anti Benjamin Yeh, Taiwan Central News Agency WWW, chemical warfare and logistics support. 6/17/96; in FBIS-CHI-96-118, 6/17/96 (6386). Corps logistics personnel worked with re- 5/96* CHINA WITH UKRAINE search organizations and the strategic mis- China has been purchasing Russian-pro- sile troops themselves on a number of key duced wire-guided torpedoes and submarine- areas, including the replenishing of oxygen launched wake-homing systems. China may 5/96 under closed conditions, the elimination of also want to buy submarine-launched cruise The National Space Agency of Ukraine hazardous gases and germs, health protec- missiles in the future, and has modified its (NSAU) has signed a $1 million contract tion, the treatment of battlefield emergencies, ‘Romeo’ class SSG submarines to carry the with the China National Space Administra- and the purification and treatment of drink- C-801 ASM. tion for the purchase of an “Imitator” re- John Downing, Jane’s Intelligence Review & Jane’s search station. According to Konstantyn ing water and sewage. Pointer, 5/96, p. 6 (6425). Xinhua (Beijing), 5/23/96; in FBIS-CHI-96-105, 5/ Yartsev, head of NSAU’s International Issues 23/96 (6450). Department, the Imitator can simulate grav- CHINA WITH TAIWAN ity, infrared emissions, and temperature, as CHINA WITH: well as three additional factors. Yartsev said Belarus, 150 3/8/96 Harbin Polytechnic Institute in China ordered Shortly after midnight (local time), China the Imitator, which is produced by the launched three M-9 (DF-15) missiles from CHINA WITH IRAN AND NORTH KOREA Kharkov Institute of Low Temperatures. bases on its southern coast into waters near Ukraine will use the money from the deal to 5/12/96 Taiwan’s two busiest ports, the southern port advance its own space and rocket industries. of Kaosiung and the northern port of The Iranian News reported that Iran had According to Yartsev, espionage allegations Keelung. Two of the missiles were launched launched ASMs and a new long-range mis- made against Chinese space experts work- into the target square 22 km east of Keelung, sile called Tondar during naval maneuvers ing at Pivdenmach in Dnipropetrovsk in 2/ and the third into the zone 52 km west of in the northern Persian Gulf, in proximity to 96 will not strain relations between the China

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 153 Missile Developments

National Space Administration and NSAU. defense system for the CIS countries. Unian (Kiev), 5/6/96; in FBIS-TAC-96-006, 5/6/96 Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, 4/24/96, p. (6411). 21 (6116). EGYPT

CHINA WITH UNITED STATES 4/1/96 Russia and Belarus established “joint alert 3/96* duty” to provide protection for the “western EGYPT WITH NORTH KOREA The U.S. Bureau of Export Administration’s foreign air borders of the CIS member states Export Administration 1994 and 1995 Re- within the boundaries of the state borders of 3/96-4/96 port on Foreign Policy Controls stated that Russia and Belarus.” Russia has been eager North Korea delivered at least seven ship- the U.S. sold China several missile-related to maintain a unified air-defense system be- ments of Scud-C missile materials to Egypt, items during those two years. Under Depart- cause the majority of the FSU’s missile-at- according to a Central Intelligence Agency ment of Commerce category 7A23, “Inertial tack warning stations are located in other CIS (CIA) report acquired by The Washington Or Other Equipment Using Accelerometers,” countries. Azerbaijan and Moldova are the Times. The shipments included steel sheets the U.S. sold seven units for a total of only CIS states not to have been included in and support equipment, giving Egypt every- $1,507,235; under category 3A51, “Mass the system. Moscow will contribute up to 50 thing that it would need to produce Scud-C Spectrometers,” one item for $349,429; un- percent of the funds needed for the system, missiles. The shipment was part of a 1980’s der category 2E40, “Technology For The and Russian firms will receive a majority of licensing agreement between Egypt and Use Of Hot Isostatic Presses,” one item for the military contracts associated with it. Rus- North Korea. $80,000; and under category 3A52, “Cath- sia hopes the establishment of a unified air Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 6/21/96, p. A1 (6400). ode Ray Oscilloscopes and Components,” 22 defense system will remedy the financial dif- units for a total of $1,137,550. ficulties that have resulted in a lack of re- EGYPT WITH RUSSIA U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Export sources to replace worn-out equipment over Administration, Export Administration Annual Re- the past two years. 6/10/96* port, 1994 and 1995 Report on Foreign Policy Con- Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, 4/24/96, p. trols, 3/96, p. II-85 (5999). 21 (6116). Egypt has contracted with Russian compa- nies to upgrade its aging SA-2, SA-3, and 5/96 SA-6 SAMs, according to an unnamed West- “Informed military sources” said Russia in- ern diplomat. COLOMBIA Philip Finnegan, Defense News, 6/10/96-6/16/96, p. tends to station a Buk-M1 anti-aircraft com- 12 (6197). plex in Armenia. Following the conclusion of military agreements between Russia and Armenia, experts specializing in anti-aircraft COLOMBIA WITH VENEZUELA defense and officers from the Russian gen- ETHIOPIA eral headquarters are formulating a plan to Mid-6/96 defend the CIS’ southern air space. The CIS’ Venezuela’s foreign ministry denied that southern air defense system has been linked Colombia was transporting missiles to its with the Gabala radio-locator station in east- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS border with Venezuela. ern Azerbaijan. The station is designed to Pedro Prado, Televan Canal 10 (Caracas), 6/13/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-118, 6/13/96 (6177). monitor incoming ICBMs and is considered 5/29/96* to be the most important element of Russia’s The Ethiopian Navy offered to sell 16 naval southern air defense system. vessels equipped with SS-N-2 ‘Styx’ ASMs Turan (Baku), 5/14/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-095, 5/14/ to the highest bidder. Ethiopia also offered 96 (6099). COMMONWEALTH OF to sell Swedish-manufactured “fast armed INDEPENDENT STATES launches” and a Natya-class minesweeper. (CIS) According to Captain Gabre Yohanes CZECH REPUBLIC Tsegaye, the Ethiopian Navy’s representa- tive in Djibouti, the Navy wants to take the best offer on the vessels and would rather sell them “as a package.” Although the op- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS erational status of the vessels is not known, CZECH REPUBLIC WITH: observers in Djibouti say that they have been Late 3/96 Belarus, Hungary, and Russia, 151 well maintained. Ethiopia became a land- Belarus, Poland, and Russia, 151 The Council of CIS Defense Ministers locked country in 1993 after Eritrea gained agreed in Moscow to establish a unified air-

154 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments independence following its victory in a 25- participate at a later date. Designed for use Combattante-II missile boats, only four of year guerrilla war against Ethiopia. by NATO, MEADS is a mobile theater mis- them are currently operational. The remain- James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 5/29/96, p. 15 sile defense (TMD) system designed to pro- ing vessels are described as “seaworthy,” (6192). vide forward and maneuvering forces with although they lack “essential equipment.” 360-degree coverage against aircraft and Iran Brief, 6/3/96, p. 8 (6234). ballistic and cruise missile attacks. MEADS FINLAND will be transportable in a C-130 Hercules FRANCE WITH ISRAEL AND aircraft. If it does become involved in the UNITED KINGDOM program, France would be responsible for 20 percent of the program’s costs, Germany 3/27/96* 20 percent, Italy 10 percent, and the U.S. the Israel’s Rafael has chosen the French-made FINLAND WITH RUSSIA remaining 50 percent. Because of the French Micro-turbo TRI-60 engine to power the decision not to participate at this time, the 5/5/96 version of the Popeye air-to-surface missile U.S. and Italy may find it difficult to meet it is offering to fulfill the U.K. Royal Air Russian Prime Minister Viktor their increased obligations. The U.S. may Force’s conventional stand-off missile Chernomyrdin and Finnish Prime Minister now have to pay 60 percent, Germany 25 (CASOM) requirement. Paavo Lipponen concluded a deal for percent, and Italy 15 percent. According to Flight International, 3/27/96-4/2/96, p. 19 (6129). Finland’s acquisition of advanced medium- the French defense ministry, France is not in range Buk M-1 (SA-11) air defense systems a position to commit fully to the MEADS FRANCE WITH ITALY AND from Russia. On 5/7/96, General Gustav program because the future defense budget UNITED KINGDOM Hagglund, commander-in-chief of Finnish remains unclear and major weapon choices defense forces, announced that Finland will have yet to be made. U.S. Secretary of De- 3/96 overlook Russian debt in exchange for Buk fense William Perry described MEADS as M-1 systems worth an estimated 850 million Defense ministers from the U.K., France, and one of the “most challenging tests of trans- Italy agreed to jointly develop a frigate de- Finnish marks ($177.1 million). Hagglund atlantic cooperation.” said the deal includes “radars, fire-control signed to provide civilian cargo convoys or Olivier Provost, La Tribune Desfosses (Paris), 5/20/ naval battlegroups with a “defensive bubble” systems and spare parts.” The Buk M-1 will 96, p. 11; in FBIS-TAC-96-007, 5/20/96 (6318). replace the SA-3 missiles that Finland cur- Arms Control Today, 4/96, p. 26 (6318). AFP (Paris), against aircraft and ASMs such as the Exocet. rently deploys to defend Helsinki against air 3/26/96; in FBIS-TAC-95-005, 3/26/96 (6022). Gra- The program will cost seven billion pounds ham Warwick and Gilbert Sedbon, Flight Interna- ($10.7 billion) and a total of 22 ships will be attacks. Finland considered acquiring the S- tional, 4/24/96-4/30/96, p. 17 (6022). 300 extended-range air-defense system, but produced: 12 for the U.K., four for France, rejected it in favor of the SA-11, which is and six for Italy. Development of the ship’s 5/96 Principal Anti-Air Missile System (PAAMS) better suited to its defense needs. French Defense Minister Charles Millon Giovanni de Briganti, Defense News, 5/13/96-5/19/ will be led from Paris. The PAAMS office 96, p. 30 (6120). announced France’s withdrawal from the will build on a series of missiles Italy and MEADS project. Millon cited strategic re- France have been developing since the late quirements and financial concerns as reasons 1980s. The U.K. will pay Italy and France for the decision. approximately 100 million pounds for the FRANCE Olivier Provost, La Tribune Desfosses (Paris), 5/20/ 96, p. 11; in FBIS-TAC-96-007, 5/20/96 (6318). work already completed on these missiles. Arms Control Today, 4/96, p. 26 (6318). The Project Horizon ship and its command and control and secondary weapon systems FRANCE WITH IRAN AND QATAR will be designed at an office in London. FRANCE WITH: Bernard Gray, Financial Times, 3/23/96-3/24/96, p. Brazil, 151 2 (6019). Bernard Gray, Financial Times, 3/23/96- 6/3/96* 3/24/96, p. 1 (6019). Brazil and United Kingdom, 151 France agreed to sell Iran “a small number” of Exocet ASMs, according to anonymous FRANCE WITH KUWAIT FRANCE WITH GERMANY, ITALY, AND Iranian sources. The sources said France will UNITED STATES deliver the Exocets to Iran in 7/96 and 8/96 3/18/96 through a private company in Qatar. The French Economy and Finance Minister Jean 4/22/96 ASMs will reportedly be deployed on mis- Arthuis visited Kuwait to emphasize Germany, Italy, and the U.S. signed a state- sile boats with the regular Iranian Navy and “France’s keenness to conclude a certain ment of intent to develop and produce the the Revolutionary Guards Navy in the Oman number of contracts,” including Medium Extended Air-Defense System Sea and the Persian Gulf. Although France Aerospatiale’s offer to provide MM-15 sea- (MEADS); France reserved the option to previously supplied Iran with 10 to-sea missiles for the eight P-37 fast patrol

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 155 Missile Developments boats the Gulf emirate purchased from Combattante-I patrol boats, the company was 6/96 France’s Constructions Mecaniques de not aware of an official decision. According Russian defense companies displayed S- Normandie in 3/95. The patrol boats cost to Jean Claude Ranvier, a spokesman for 300V and S-300PMU1 air defense systems Kuwait roughly 2.5 billion French francs. In Aerospatiale, his firm has yet to be informed and the Smerch rocket system at the an effort to sweeten the MM-15 offer, France of the competition’s outcome. Eurosatory ’96 defense exhibition in Paris. has “raised the possibility” of giving Kuwait Reuter, 6/4/96; in Executive News Service, 6/5/96 Russia’s Rosvoorouzhenie and the State Sci- intelligence information gathered from its (6191). Defense News, 6/10/96-6/16/96, p. 2 (6191). Bernard Gray, Financial Times, 6/5/96, p. 8 (6191). entific Production Enterprise Splav, and the Helios-1 observation satellite. A similar pro- French firm Selerg announced the comple- posal previously helped France secure a tion of a joint project to develop an improved FRANCE WITH PAKISTAN “major security deal” with Qatar. Following 122 mm rocket for the Russian PN-21 Grad the 1990-91 Gulf War, Kuwait’s Amir Jabir 4/10/96 rocket system. The improved version incor- al-Ahmad al-Sabah informed France that it porates a new motor which has increased the France announced that it will deliver three might be awarded “a relatively exclusive rocket’s range to 36 km. Accuracy has also modernized Agosta submarines to the Paki- right” to supply the emirate with naval equip- been improved significantly. The Russian stani Navy over the next few years. Rear ment and weapons. In 10/93, France and and French companies intend to sell the new Admiral Alain Bereau, commander of French Kuwait subsequently signed a 10-year de- rocket to countries that already possess Grad naval forces in the Indian Ocean, said the fense pact. Kuwait is in the process of con- rocket systems. submarines will have the capability to launch cluding contracts to fulfill two other defense Valentin Rudenko, Krasnaya Zvezda, 7/2/96, p. 3 requirements. First, Kuwait is considering the SM-39 ASMs. (6377). Muslim (Islamabad), 4/11/96, pp.1, 11; in FBIS-NES- procurement of six seaborne helicopters 96-072, 4/11/96 (6062). equipped with air-to-sea missiles. France is FRANCE WITH SAUDI ARABIA offering Kuwait Panther helicopters armed FRANCE WITH RUSSIA with AS 15TT missiles. Second, Kuwait may Mid-5/96 also purchase four 2,000 ton corvettes armed Late 5/96 A Saudi Arabian F-2000 frigate began a 12- month refit at France’s Toulon Naval Dock- with anti-aircraft missiles, “anti-surface mis- The impending Russian elections caused a yard. The Mahdina is the first of four Royal siles,” and anti-submarine missiles. France week’s delay in the founding of Starsem, a Saudi Navy (RSN) F-2000 frigates sched- is bidding for the corvette contract “with joint Franco-Russian company designed to uled to be refitted in France under the four- products designed by 12 foreign shipyards.” market European Ariane and Russian Soyuz year Project Mouette contract concluded in France sold Ffr3.8 billion worth of arms to rockets. The launch of Starsem was sched- 1/94. According to Direction des Construc- Kuwait in 1995. uled instead for early 6/96. Yuri N. Koptev, Jacques Isnard, Le Monde (Paris), 3/27/96, p. 6; in tions Navales (DCN) officials at the dock- director-general of the Russian Space FBIS-TAC-95-005, 3/27/96 (6291). yard, the refit includes “missiles, sonars, and Agency (RKA), sent a telegram to notify the helicopter handling system.” Missile en- French officials of the change. According to 4/29/96* hancements will focus on giving the ships’ officials, France’s Aerospatiale and Three French firms set aside $157 million OTOBreda/Matra Otomat anti-ship weapon Arianespace will own 35 percent and 15 per- (808 Ffr) in offset commitments for selling systems added capabilities “both inside the cent of Starsem, respectively. RKA and radar, missiles, and missile boats to Kuwait. missiles and in the ship-based control sys- Russia’s Central Specialized Design Bureau Philip Finnegan, Defense News, 4/29/96-5/5/96, p. tem,” including “enhanced search patterns 10 (6261). of Samara—which produces the Soyuz—will to re-attack missed targets.” According to share the other 50 percent. According to DCN officials, the first-generation Thomson- FRANCE WITH KUWAIT AND Arianespace spokesman Claude Sanchez, CSF Airsys Crotale self-defense missiles will UNITED KINGDOM “nothing could be considered definitive” not be upgraded. The frigates’ nuclear, bio- until the papers establishing Starsem as a logical, and chemical weapon (NBC) detec- private company “under French law” had 6/4/96 tion and protection systems will also be been signed by the parties involved. Michel A Kuwaiti newspaper reported that Kuwait’s improved. This will involve enhancing the Delaye, director of Arianespace’s space and defense minister, Sheikh Ahmad al-Hamoud air-tight gas citadel by fitting more sophisti- defense division, said the firm plans to even- al-Sabah, said a contract had been awarded cated pressurization systems, and “retrofit- tually design a new upper stage for the Soyuz to British Aerospace (BAe) for the purchase ting new, high performance detection rocket in order to place “groups of small sat- of Sea Skua ASMs. BAe was competing with sensors.” France’s Aerospatiale, which wanted to pro- ellites into low Earth orbit.” In the short term, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6/26/96, p. 26 (6284). vide Kuwait with MM-15 ASMs. Accord- Arianespace and Aerospatiale will be respon- ing to a BAe official, although the company sible for marketing the Soyuz outside former was informed that Kuwait’s Ministry of De- Soviet territory. fense had chosen the Sea Skua to equip its Peter B. de Selding, Space News, 5/27/96-6/2/96, pp. 1, 29 (6215).

156 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

FRANCE WITH SOUTH KOREA

5/8/96 GERMANY INDIA The special products division of South Korea’s Daewoo Heavy Industries has pro- duced an indigenous surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, known as either the Chonma GERMANY WITH: INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS or Pegasus. The turret, sensors, and internal France, Italy, and United States, 155 parts of the Pegasus were developed with 2/4/96 technology provided by the French firm GERMANY WITH UKRAINE AND Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee Thomson-CSF and are identical to the UNITED STATES said there was no chance the Prithvi-1 SSM Crotale New Generation SAM. The Pegasus program would be abandoned, despite tech- has eight launch tubes mounted on a tracked 3/18/96 nical and training problems that threaten to chassis. The missile itself is said to have a Colonel Oleksandr Serdyuk, head of the delay the missile’s deployment—originally 12 kg warhead, “command-to-line-of-sight” Administrative Management of Strategic scheduled for mid-1996—by at least 12 guidance, and an effective range of 10 km. Nuclear Forces Troops at the Ukrainian De- months. The Indian Army plans to station Full-scale production of the SAM is expected fense Ministry, said the 3.5 million marks initially approximately 25 Prithvi missiles to begin in 1998. promised by the German government for the along the border with Pakistan. The army’s Christopher F. Foss, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 5/8/96, “soft” destruction of five ICBM launch silos long-term aim is to acquire 100 Prithvi mis- p. 16 (6036). located near populated areas will not be siles, extra mobile launchers, and support enough. Ukraine is seeking financial assis- equipment. Meanwhile, an official from FRANCE WITH UAE AND tance from the U.S. to help pay for the de- India’s Defence Research and Development UNITED KINGDOM struction of these five silos. Organisation (DRDO) said Bharat Dynam- Ukrinform (Kiev), 3/19/96; in FBIS-TAC-95-005, ics Ltd. (BDL) of Hyderabad was having 4/3/96* 3/19/96 (6102). Unian (Kiev), 3/18/96; in FBIS- difficulties with the Prithvi-1 SSM’s guid- A proposal by Matra Defense to sell the TAC-95-005, 3/18/96 (6102). ance system and “handling” the missile’s liq- Black Shahine variant of its Apache air- uid fuel. The official added that the first 15 launched stand-off weapon to the United Prithvi-1 SSMs were in production, but could Arab Emirates may violate the MTCR’s Cat- HUNGARY not be delivered for at least another year. Ac- egory One guidelines. According to sources cording to Indian defense sources, army per- close to the signatories, the proposal is caus- sonnel lack experience in handling liquid ing concern because it threatens to violate, fuel, which must be loaded immediately prior “at least in spirit,” the guidelines that restrict to launch and removed if the launch is HUNGARY WITH: the transfer of missiles capable of deliver- aborted. Indian defense sources said safety Austria, India, Moldova, Romania, and ing 500 kg or greater payloads over a dis- and efficiency concerns had dictated the de- tance of 300 km or more. If the Black Switzerland, 150 lay. Shahine is deemed to exceed MTCR guide- Belarus, Czech Republic, and Russia, 151 Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 2/12/96-2/18/ lines, France will either have to ask for a 96, p. 32 (6068). “one-off approval for the missile” transfer HUNGARY WITH ISRAEL AND SWEDEN 2/16/96 or seek permission “to modify the design to meet the guidelines.” Matra Defense has 2/28/96* Officials from the Indian Defence Ministry made no comment to date. A proposal by Sweden’s Saab conducted preliminary talks said the state-owned Ordnance Factory the U.K.’s GEC-Marconi to sell a stand-off with Rafael and other Israeli companies re- Board (OFB), which produces projectiles, weapon to the UAE has already been turned garding a potential Israeli weapons package rockets, and other military equipment, is down by the British Ministry of Defence to be offered as part of Saab’s proposal to scheduled to undergo major restructuring. (MOD) on the grounds that it would be rela- supply the Hungarian Air Force with JAS39 The changes will involve the closure of ap- tively easy to increase the missile’s range. Gripen aircraft. Air force officials in Hun- proximately a third of the company’s pro- The MOD has since approved a revised de- gary are reported to be interested in acquir- duction lines, and the transfer of employees sign proposal from GEC-Marconi. Matra ing Israeli-made air-to-surface and air-to-air to more defense-oriented positions. OFB Defense and GEC-Marconi are competing weapons. Saab refused to comment on its employs 173,000 workers and maintains 39 against each other to fulfill the UAE’s stand- talks with the Israeli firms. factories. Defense News, 2/26/96-3/3/96, p. 24 (6060). off missile requirement. Andrzej Jeziorski and Arie Egozi, Flight Interna- Douglas Barrie, Flight International, 4/3/96-4/9/96, tional, 2/28/96-3/5/96, p. 18 (6253). p. 22 (6121).

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 157 Missile Developments

3/8/96 3/31/96 ballistic missile (SLBM) called “Sagarika.” India’s parliamentary standing committee on Dr. Kasturirangan said that the PSLV will The ASM will have a range of approximately defense released a report on defense policy soon be in demand to conduct launches for 20 km when launched from the air and more planning and management, recommending the world’s satellite manufacturers. He added than 10 km when fired from a ship. The na- serial production of the Agni IRBM and its that there were not many rockets in the val version of the Akash SAM has been de- introduction into the armed forces. Accord- PSLV’s class that can launch satellites into signed specifically to be fired from naval ing to the report, the demand was made due low earth or intermediate orbits. According platforms and will be used to target incom- to a change in the security environment, in- to Kasturirangan, initial evaluations of the ing enemy aircraft and missiles. The new cluding “developments of military signifi- PSLV’s 3/96 launch indicate that India’s ASM and the naval Akash SAM are sched- cance in the neighborhood.” Prior to SLVs “can be safely used to launch Indian uled for deployment by 1999. The Sagarika postponement of the Agni project, India test- remote sensing satellites.” Bhuvanesh SLBM project began in 1994 and is sched- fired three Agni IRBMs (without warheads), Chaturvedi, India’s minister of state for sci- uled for completion by 2005. Defense two of which were successful. The Indian ence and technology, said the launch had sources describe the Sagarika as the most ad- government had declared previously that the demonstrated India’s substantial capability vanced missile on DRDO’s agenda. The project ended with the launch of the Agni- in both satellite technology and rocketry. Sagarika project is in the final stages of scale- 03 reentry vehicle. ISRO can now prepare for the maiden launch model testing and the propulsion system is Radio Pakistan Network (Islamabad), 2/7/96; in of its next generation SLV, the Geostation- under development. According to unnamed FBIS-NES-96-026, 2/7/96 (6110). Times of India ary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), now sources, the Indian Navy’s shift in emphasis (Bombay), 3/11/96, p. 1; in FBIS-NES-96-049, 3/ 11/96 (6110). scheduled for late 1998. toward missile technology has been driven Vivek Raghuvanshi, Space News, 3/25/96-3/31/96, by monetary restrictions and a recognition pp. 3, 26 (6167). V.R. Mani, Times of India 3/21/96 of the important role missiles will play in the (Bombay), 3/22/96, p. 1; in FBIS-NES-96-061, 3/ next century. The budget for developing India’s third Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle 22/96 (6167). All India Radio Network (Delhi), 3/ (PSLV-D3) launched the 922 kg IRS P3 re- 31/96; in FBIS-NES-96-065, 3/31/96 (6167). All these naval missiles and their related systems mote sensing satellite into an 817 km near- India Radio Network (Delhi), 3/21/96; in FBIS-NES- is rumored to be more than Rs 100 crore. 96-057, 3/21/96 (6167). Strategic Digest, 2/96, p. M. Ahmed, Business Standard (Delhi), 4/1/96, p. 5; polar Sun-synchronous orbit from the 276 (6167). Vijay Menon, India Today, 4/15/96, p. in FBIS-NES-96-065, 4/1/96 (6064). Sriharikota Satellite Launching Range. The 99 (6167). All India Radio Network (Delhi), 3/21/ launch of the PSLV-D3 was the third in a 96; in FBIS-NES-96-056, 3/21/96 (6167). 4/4/96 series of developmental flights. More than 4/96 K. Madhavan Nair, director of India’s Liq- 150 private and public industries were in- uid Propulsion Systems Centre (LPSC), said India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outlined volved in manufacturing the PSLV’s com- ISRO had completed the design of the cryo- its national security priorities, which include ponents, which include “tight alloy genic engine for the GSLV’s upper stage. serial production of the Prithvi SSM, structures, motor cases, electronic packages, Nair also said that work on fabricating the operationalization of the Agni SSM, and heat-shield and radars.” Dr. Kasturirangan, engine was well under way at Machine Tool acceleration of the development of the Agni- chairman of the Indian Space Research Aids and Reconditioning (MTAR) and 2 SSM. The “BJP manifesto’s external se- Organisation (ISRO), was confident the or- Godrej. Since the completion of designs for curity blueprint” emphasized the importance ganization could begin commercial launches the 7.5 MT cryogenic engine, LPSC has be- of expanding India’s missile program and of of the PSLV with its next flight. ISRO plans gun designing larger and more powerful en- boosting military preparedness in general. to offer commercial launches of satellites gines at its Valiamala complex near The BJP also stressed its opposition to the weighing up to 1,000 kg into 900 km orbits Thiruvananthapuram. The new 12 MT and MTCR. at a cost of between $10 and $12 million. 16 MT engines will be used to launch 3,500 Flight International, 2/7/96-2/13/96, p. 24 (6167). Doordarshan Television Network (Delhi), 4/20/96; Vivek Raghuvanshi, Space News, 3/25/96-3/31/96, in FBIS-NES-96-079, 4/20/96 (6059). Indian Ex- kg and 4,000 kg communications satellites pp. 3, 26 (6167). V.R. Mani, Times of India press (Delhi), 4/10/96, p. 9; in FBIS-NES-96-072, into geostationary orbit, respectively. (Bombay), 3/22/96, p. 1; in FBIS-NES-96-061, 3/ 4/10/96 (6059). Asian Recorder, 5/6/96-5/12/96, p. 25603 (6326). 22/96 (6167). All India Radio Network (Delhi), 3/ 21/96; in FBIS-NES-96-056, 3/21/96 (6167). 4/1/96* 6/2/96 The Indian Navy is set to acquire three new An explosion damaged India’s Defence Re- 3/23/96 indigenously produced missile systems as search and Development Laboratory Prime Minister Narasimha Rao said the In- part of a “shift in strategic thinking which (DRDL) in Hyderabad, where India’s me- dian space program “will not be allowed to advocates technology inputs to maintain the dium- and long-range missiles are developed. suffer because of a lack of funds.” competitive edge of the cash-strapped Navy.” DRDL denied reports that as many as 20 All India Radio Network (Delhi), 3/23/96; in FBIS- The three missile systems include: a new NES-96-058, 3/23/96 (6167). All India Radio Net- people were injured by the explosion. Ac- work (Delhi), 3/21/96; in FBIS-NES-96-056, 3/21/ long-range ASM; a naval version of the cording to DRDL head A.J.P. Kalam, the 96 (6167). Akash SAM; and a large submarine-launched blast was isolated to the High Energy Mate-

158 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments rials Building, where chemical additives for plate type fuel.” According to sources from INDIA WITH PAKISTAN AND propellants are developed. Kalam said the the DRDO, the advanced technology vessel UNITED STATES blast would not affect the program because (ATV) will be fitted with 1,000 km-range the facility’s principal laboratory was left cruise missiles and an advanced sonar sys- Early 2/96 unscathed. The results of an official investi- tem. The ATV is being developed by the U.S. government officials expressed their gation into the explosion have yet to be re- Department of Atomic Energy, the DRDO, disapproval of the 1/27/96 Prithvi-2 SSM test leased. Kalam said DRDL would increase and the Indian Navy. because of concern this type of action would safety measures at the laboratory regardless Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 6/24/96-6/30/ 96, p. 40 (6233). raise tensions on the subcontinent. After the of the results from this investigation. A faulty test, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor air-conditioning system is thought to have Sandy Berger was sent to Pakistan in an at- triggered the blast, although India did not rule INDIA WITH: Afghanistan, 149 tempt to ease regional tensions. out sabotage because of recent terrorist bomb Theresa Hitchens and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense attacks in New Delhi and Rajasthan. Austria, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, News, 2/12/96-2/18/96, pp. 3, 36 (6323). Tim K.S. Jayaraman, New Scientist, 6/8/96, “India’s Mis- and Switzerland, 150 Zimmerman, Brahma Chellaney, and Phillippe B. sile Centre Shaken By Blast.” India Today, 6/30/96, Moulier, U.S. News & World Report, 2/12/96, pp. p. 13 (6271). Electronic Telegraph, 6/3/96, http:// 42-44, 46 (6323). Raj Chengappa, India Today, 2/ www/telegraph.com (6168). INDIA WITH PAKISTAN AND RUSSIA 29/96, pp. 98-99 (6323).

6/3/96 6/19/96 2/3/96 Indian Defence Minister Mulayam Singh India’s Kerala Cabinet decided to re-open Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee Yadav said India’s new BJP government the investigation into the ISRO spy scandal. dismissed U.S. State Department claims that would “uphold the broad national consen- The scandal involved documents related to the Prithvi-2 test was destabilizing. sus on security issues,” although he did not Vikas engines and the PSLV, which were al- Mukherjee said that because of Pakistan’s specifically comment on India’s missile pro- legedly delivered to Pakistani agents in 1994. recent “buying spree” of weapons, includ- gram. Yadav took office just as India’s Plan- Chief Minister E.K. Nayanar said the cen- ing submarines, missiles, and Mirage fighter 2005 called for 70 percent of India’s weapon tral government’s Research and Analysis aircraft, the test was not a mistake. He added requirements to be met through indigenous Wing (RAW) and the Intelligence Bureau that there was no chance India would aban- production within 10 years. (IB) would be asked to participate in the in- don the Prithvi program. One Indian defense Times of India (Bombay), 6/4/96, p. 7; in FBIS-NES- vestigation. The case began in 11/94 with the official dismissed Pakistani objections to the 96-109, 6/4/96 (6218). Atul Aneja, Hindu (Madras), arrest of Mariam Rasheeda, a Maldivian, test as an overreaction, claiming the new 6/3/96, p. 11; in FBIS-NES-96-109, 6/3/96 (6218). who was accused of staying in India after missile would not be fitted with nuclear war- her visa had expired. Other people arrested heads. The official said that nobody would 6/12/96 included: Rasheeda’s associate, Fauziya put a nuclear warhead on a 250 km-range Unnamed senior government sources in New Hassan; S. Nambinarayanan, deputy direc- missile because “the risk of damage to the Delhi said the Indian Ministry of Defence tor of the LPSC; D. Sasikumaran, general area of origin is too much.” had suspended all civilian use of the IRS-1C manager of fabrications at LPSC; K. Reuter, 2/4/96; in Executive News Service, 2/4/96 satellite to “monitor without distraction Chandrasekharan, a trade representative (6274). Farhan Bokhari and Vivek Raghuvanshi, DefenseNews, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p.18 (6274). Radio nuclear and ballistic missiles deployed by from the Russian Space Agency China and possibly Pakistan near India’s Pakistan Network (Islamabad), 2/3/96; in FBIS-NES- Glavkosmos; and Chandrasekharan’s friend, 96-024, 2/3/96 (6274). border.” The IRS-1C can perform “sensitive S.K. Sharma. Police Inspector General military satellite operations” using its pan- Ramon Srivastava was also accused of in- INDIA WITH RUSSIA chromatic camera, which can “return a reso- volvement in the scandal. When India’s Cen- lution of 5.8 m and can facilitate more tral Bureau of Investigation (CBI) originally 2/12/96 accurate aerial photographs in detail.” Ac- investigated the case, it reported that allega- cording to the anonymous Indian sources, the Indian defense sources said Russia’s S-300 tions by the State Police and IB were un- air-defense system would have to be tested IRS-1C has “a tilt of 30 degrees on either founded. The CBI also concluded the side,” which permits it to “record imagery in India before a final decision on its pur- accused had been forced by their interroga- chase could be made. India is considering deep inside neighboring countries.” tors to make statements and recommended Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 6/17/97-6/23/ purchase of the S-300PMU to counter 96, p. 10 (6235). to the Ernakulam chief judicial magistrate Pakistan’s acquisition of Chinese-manufac- that the case be closed. The six defendants tured M-11 SSMs. Russia has already offered 6/24/96* were subsequently released on the basis of to sell India the S-300V anti-missile system India’s $285.7 million program to develop a CBI’s report. The suspended Indian scien- but Indian defense officials want the S- nuclear-powered submarine has suffered a tists were reinstated to their positions. 300PMU because of its “unprecedented ca- Hindu (Madras), 6/20/96, p. 11; in FBIS-NES-96- pability.” Indian defense sources estimate the setback following failed tests of its “com- 121, 6/20/96 (6220). pressed enriched uranium water reactor with system could cost New Delhi approximately

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 159 Missile Developments

Rs 800 crore (U.S. $230 million), and they 3/15/96 INDIA WITH UKRAINE believe that India could initially afford to Russia and India were scheduled to sign a purchase only three or four systems to pro- “package of military documents on techni- 4/16/96* tect New Delhi and Bombay from M-11 at- cal cooperation, including five contracts Ukraine has reportedly offered missiles to tacks. worth $3.5 billion.” Russia’s India, but negotiations between the two coun- Ranjit Kumar, Navbharat Times (Delhi), 2/18/96, p. Rosvoorouzhenie has been working on the tries have so far been unproductive. 1; in FBIS-TAC-96-004, 2/18/96 (6249). Vivek Aleksandr Sychev, Izvestiya, 4/16/96, p. 3 (6187). Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 2/26/96-3/3/96, p. 8 five contracts with India for approximately (6061). two years under the auspices of the “Program of Military-Technical Cooperation for the 2/22/96 Period Up to 2003.” Under the terms of the INDONESIA Russian diplomats said that India’s previous contracts, India’s ground forces are sched- shortage of spare parts for its Russian-made uled to acquire Russian-made Urugan and weapon systems had been resolved and “the Smerch multiple rocket launchers, S-300V supply fluctuation” had been “stabilized.” anti-aircraft missiles, and Tunguska mobile Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 2/26/96-3/3/96, anti-aircraft guns. INDONESIA WITH MALAYSIA, p. 8 (6061). Flight International, 3/13/96-3/19/96, p. 14 (6063). PHILIPPINES, SINGAPORE, SOUTH Stephen Blank, Jane’s Intelligence Review, 4/96, pp. AFRICA, TAIWAN, AND VIETNAM 3/96* 167-169 (6063). Viktor Sergeyev, Segodnya (Mos- cow), 3/13/96, p. 4; in FBIS-UMA-96-080-S, 3/13/ By the end of 1996, the first of seven cryo- 96 (6111). Viktor Litovkin, Finansoviye Izvestiya, 4/24/96 genic booster engines will be delivered to 3/5/96, p. 2 (6376). South African Defense Minister Joe Modise ISRO by Russia’s Glavkosmos. According identified Malaysia as an important market to a Glavkosmos spokesman, the remaining INDIA WITH RUSSIA AND UNITED STATES for Pretoria. Malaysia could also become a six engines will be delivered at six-month gateway for South African defense manufac- intervals. 6/18/96 turers to access expanding markets in Indo- Strategic Digest, 3/96, pp. 423-424 (6066). The espionage trial of Aluru J. Prasad began nesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, in a U.S. federal court. Prasad, an Indian and Vietnam, where “defense budgets will 3/96 businessman accused of selling U.S. military be big.” South Africa has already signed A delegation from Russia’s Rosvoorouzhenie secrets to the Soviet Union and Russia, is three joint-production agreements with Ma- led by Oleg Sidorenko, the company’s deputy charged with attempting to obtain classified laysian firms, including ventures to produce director general, visited India to display information about infrared missile detectors, electro-optics and electronic-countermeasure Russian weaponry at the second India Inter- radar systems, and the stealth bomber’s spe- systems and equipment. The three Malaysian national Civil and Defence Equipment and cial paint that makes the aircraft invisible to companies are: Malaysian Optics Systems, System Exhibition and Conference (IICDES radar. A graduate of MIT, Prasad is presi- SME Industries Group, and Mara Holdings. ’96) in New Delhi. Russian exhibits at dent of India-based Hyderabad Batteries Ltd. According to Modise, the defense systems IICDES ’96 included modern Sukhoi com- Subrahmanyam Kota, the prosecution’s chief produced by South Africa’s Denel Group are bat aircraft, 155 mm guns, submarines, heli- witness, reportedly sold Prasad unclassified “much sought after in the Far East” because copters, and missile and anti-aircraft systems. information regarding the stealth bomber’s of their “reliability and value for money.” Russia’s Splav State Scientific Production paint for $20,000 and drawings of a Sikorsky New Straits Times (Kuala Lumpur), 4/25/96, p. 7; in Enterprise displayed Grad, Uragan, and helicopter rotor for $15,000. Although Kota FBIS-EAS-96-083, 4/25/96 (6012). Smerch multiple launch rocket systems at the was indicted with Prasad and a third man, exhibition. These systems and other Russian espionage charges against him were dropped INDONESIA WITH RUSSIA military equipment drew the attention of In- as part of a plea bargain. Kota reportedly sold dian specialists, who reportedly agreed with U.S. military software to the Soviet Union 6/96 their Russian counterparts to continue devel- during the Cold War and has sold biotech- Russia’s Reutov defense plant and Vympel oping bilateral military cooperation between nology secrets to Russia since the end of the missile design bureau displayed missiles and their two countries. Splav is providing the Cold War. The Indian-born Kota is an Ameri- rockets at the Indonesia Air Show 1996 (IAS- Indian Army with assistance to upgrade its can citizen and president of the Boston 96) in Jakarta. BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers. Group, a computer consulting company. The Valentin Rudenko, Krasnaya Zvezda, 7/2/96, p. 3 Hindustan Times (Delhi), 4/2/96, p. 9; in FBIS-NES- trial is expected to provide some insight into (6377). 96-066, 4/2/96 (6111). Viktor Sergeyev, Segodnya how espionage has changed since the end of (Moscow), 3/13/96, p. 4; in FBIS-UMA-96-080-S, INDONESIA WITH UNITED KINGDOM 3/13/96 (6111). Yuriy Golotiuk, Segodnya, 3/27/96, the Cold War. p. 2 (6376). Viktor Litovkin, Finansoviye Izvestiya, Washington Times, 6/19/96, p. A6 (6248). 3/5/96, p. 2 (6376). 2/21/96* The U.K.’s Lucas Industries is establishing

160 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments a joint “precision-machining” venture with Peay, Iran is “doing a lot of tunneling near 5/23/96-5/24/96 Indonesia’s PT Metinca Dirgantara and PT their littorals.” CENTCOM spokesman Navy Iran conducted the Velayat (Guardianship) Pindad. The venture will support Indonesia’s Captain Mark D. Neuhart confirmed Peay’s military exercise involving 200,000 troops aerospace sector. Lucas will have a 51 per- statement and said that the tunnels appeared and hundreds of tanks in the Koush-e Nosrat cent stake in the venture, while PT Pindad to have been constructed to store, rather than desert south of Tehran. According to the and PT Metinca Dirgantara will have a 34 launch, missiles. Neuhart said that the tun- commander of the exercise, General Hadi and 15 percent stake, respectively. nel project was part of Iran’s defense mod- Golestaneh, missile, artillery, engineering, Flight International, 2/21/96-2/27/96, p. 12 (6004). ernization program. CENTCOM asserted and communications units took part in the that Iran’s tunnels would “not have an im- maneuvers. Ten armored and infantry divi- mediate effect on U.S. activity in the Per- sions, 100 helicopters from the Iranian IRAN sian Gulf,” but Washington intends to army’s Havanirouz air wing, and six inde- continue monitoring the situation. U.S. De- pendent brigades also participated. The ma- fense Secretary William Perry said that he neuvers involved approximately half of Iran’s did not think the tunnels would fundamen- regular armed forces and were the largest tally alter Iran’s ability to wage war. Some ever to be conducted in the Middle East. The INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS U.S. defense officials have asserted that the exercise coincided with a warning by combination of Iran’s tunnels with its deploy- CENTCOM Commander General Binford Early 2/96 ment of Chinese-made anti-ship missiles and Peay that Iran is expected to increase the Vice Admiral Scott Redd, commander of Soviet-made submarines was “noteworthy.” range of its SSMs to make them capable of naval forces for the U.S. Central Command The tunnels are thought to be designed to reaching targets in Europe. (CENTCOM), said Iran’s test-launch of a protect storage and potential launch sites for Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6/5/96, p. 15 (6196). Chinese-manufactured C-802 ASM in the North Korean manufactured No-dong-1 North Arabian Sea in early 1/96 “renewed SSMs, as well as to house Scud SSMs. 6/10/96 concerns” about Tehran’s naval potential. New York Times, 4/30/96, p. A7 (6263). Barbara The Second International Machine-tool, The C-802 has a range of 95 km. Redd said Starr, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 5/8/96, p. 4 (6263). Construction Equipment, and Heavy Ma- that since 1994, Iran has been increasing its Financial Times, 5/3/96, p. 6 (6263). Washington Post, 5/3/96, p. A24 (6263). Jane’s Defence Weekly, chinery Fair began in Tehran. Iranian offi- “fixed manned launch sites” for SSMs and 5/1/96, p. 3 (6263). cials described the exhibition as a triumph SAMs. Redd estimated that Iran has at least in the face of U.S. sanctions. During the nine long-range SAM sites located on the 5/12/96-5/15/96 opening ceremony, Iranian Commerce Min- mainland and islands in the Persian Gulf, Maritime units of Iran’s Revolutionary ister Yahya Al-e Ishaq said that despite U.S. compared to three HAWK missile sites in Guards fired ASMs during maneuvers in the sanctions, Iranian firms were currently ex- the early 1990s. Iran has HAWK, SA-5, and Persian Gulf. According to Revolutionary porting industrial technology and equipment, SA-6 SAMs located at these sites. Tehran Guards Marine Colonel Parviz Qowsi, the and “were able to secure” overseas markets also has up to four SSM sites. event marked the first time marine units had in Africa and Central Asia. According to Iran Brief, 3/4/96, p. 6 (6265). Voice of the Islamic Ishaq, Iran had earned millions of dollars Republic Of Iran First Program Network (Tehran), launched land-to-sea and sea-to-sea missiles 5/2/96; in FBIS-NES-96-087, 5/2/96 (6265). Bar- during military exercises in the northern Gulf. recently by providing engineering services bara Starr, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2/7/96, p. 14 According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, to other countries. A total of 80 European (6265). the “four-day war games” took place between and 250 Iranian firms participated in the ex- Kharg Island and the port of Bushehr. hibition. Mid-4/96 Reuter, 5/14/96; in Executive News Service, 5/15/ Iran Brief, 7/1/96, p. 1 (6273). Iran conducted the five-day “Salman-1 of 96 (6078). 75” naval exercise between Jazireh-e Khark 6/25/96 and Bushehr in the Persian Gulf, during 5/13/96 President Hashemi Rafsanjani chaired a which missile-launching frigates and “anti- Iran announced that it had tested a new mis- meeting of the Supreme Economic Council surface air-to-sea air units” were mobilized. sile called Tondar, which it claims to have at which it was decided that Iran will pur- Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran First Program produced indigenously. The Tondar is chase 7.3 billion rials worth of navigation- (Tehran), 4/13/96; in FBIS-NES-96-074, 4/13/96 thought to be a land-based ASM. According control units, equipment for ground-based (6077). to Brigadier General Ahmad Dadbin, com- flight-control radar stations, and laboratory mander of Iran’s land forces, Iran has 5/1/96* equipment. The council also directed the “achieved the technology of missile produc- Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran Iran has been constructing tunnels capable tion.” to provide the Nasr electronics research-and- of housing long-range ballistic missiles along James Bruce, Jane’s Defense Weekly, 6/12/96, p. 27 development center with a loan to enable it its Persian Gulf coastline. According to (6196). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6/5/96, p. 15 (6196). to conclude its current projects. CENTCOM Commander General Binford IRIB Television First Program Network (Tehran), 6/ 25/96; in FBIS-NES-96-125, 6/25/96 (6239).

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 161 Missile Developments

6/30/96 Mykytenko, chief of the Ukrainian Foreign 3/10/96 Naval forces from the Iranian Army and the Ministry’s Middle East Department, said that UNSCOM Deputy Chairman Charles Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ukraine does “not supply arms to Iran” and Duelfer said that Baghdad was still in pos- initiated the Falaqh-5 missile maneuvers in that Kiev “has repeatedly stated so.” session of prohibited “documents and items,” the Persian Gulf. The exercise involved “mis- Mykytenko emphasized that Ukraine adheres and he doubted whether Iraq had accounted sile sites of the Khatam ul-Anbia headquar- to all nonproliferation agreements regarding for all the long-range missiles it was banned ters as well as missile units of the naval forces missile technology, nuclear technology, and from possessing under the terms of the 1990- of the army and IRGC.” The public relations offensive arms. 91 Gulf War cease-fire. department of the navy said the four-day Halia Pavlia, Intelnews (Kiev), 2/27/96; in FBIS- Reuter, 3/11/96; in Executive News Service, 3/11/ exercise was designed to improve the com- SOV-96-039, 2/27/96 (6095). 96 (6130). bat readiness of Iran’s naval forces. Iranian 5/22/96 naval forces tested their missile, communi- 3/11/96 cation, defense, and transport equipment Morteza Muhammad-Khan, Iran’s minister After a four-day visit to Iraq, UNSCOM during the first phase of the exercise. of economic affairs and finance, and Ukrai- Deputy Chairman Charles Duelfer said Iraq IRNA (Tehran), 7/3/96; in FBIS-NES-96-129, 7/3/ nian Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Kinakh had pledged to cooperate with U.N. weap- 96 (6287). IRNA (Tehran), 6/30/96; in FBIS-NES- signed an agreement pledging economic co- ons inspectors following an 18-hour stand- 96-129, 6/30/96 (6287). operation between the two countries. off outside the Irrigation Ministry in Baghdad Muhammad-Khan and Kinakh are co-chairs on 3/9/96. According to Duelfer, no docu- IRAN WITH: of the Iranian-Ukrainian Trade and Eco- ments were found at the ministry. UNSCOM China and North Korea, 153 nomic Committee. Ukraine has supplied Iran wanted to search the building for documents France and Qatar, 155 with assistance in the fields of electronics, related to Iraq’s long-range missile programs. satellite technology, rocket manufacture, Since the 3/9/96 stand-off, Duelfer said Iraq IRAN WITH JAPAN transportation, metallurgy, and mineral ex- had presented final reports to the U.N. on its traction. ballistic missile program, as well as its chemi- 6/20/96 Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, 6/19/96, p. cal, biological, and nuclear weapons pro- 26 (6278). Tokyo’s District Court ordered a former ex- grams. Although Iraq has said that these ecutive from Japan Avionics Electronics In- declarations are “full, final and complete,” dustry Ltd. to pay damages of approximately Duelfer believes UNSCOM needs to review 1.25 billion yen for making illegal shipments IRAQ and assess them before presenting its 4/96 of missile components to Iran in 1991. The report to the U.N. Security Council. Accord- lawsuit was brought against the former ex- ing to Duelfer, a team of 43 ballistic missile ecutive by shareholders wanting to protect experts will remain in the country, and UNSCOM Chief Ekeus may travel to their firm against financial losses stemming INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS from the management decision to allow the Baghdad in late 3/96. illegal exports. The shipments resulted in the Reuter, 3/11/96; in Executive News Service, 3/11/ 2/14/96 96 (6130). John M. Goshko, Washington Post, 3/ firm being fined by the U.S. The court’s de- UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus answered ques- 12/96, p. A9 (6290). Leon Barkho, Reuter, 3/9/96; cision, based on a 5 billion yen lawsuit tions about Iraq’s potential development of in Executive News Service, 3/11/96 (6290). brought against the former president and two a long-range missile “during a closed-door former executives by a shareholder from session” with the U.N. Security Council. 3/11/96 Fukuoka, ordered the three men to jointly U.N. inspectors suspect that Iraq is attempt- UNSCOM was involved in another stand- pay 40 million yen of the total 1.25 billion ing to develop a longer range version of the off in Iraq outside an underground training yen in damages. Japan Avionics Electronics Al-Hussein missile that would have a range facility and barracks of the Republican Guard Industry Ltd. manufactures “internal [iner- in excess of 2,000 miles. According to a se- at Salabati, 30 miles southeast of Baghdad. tial] navigation equipment” for aeronautical nior U.N. official, such a missile could reach According to a U.S. official, the facility was applications. NEC has 50.1 percent equity London, Paris, or Moscow. Although U.S suspected of concealing “banned launchers in the firm. and U.N. officials are concerned that Iraq’s for Scud medium-range missiles” of the type Kyodo (Tokyo), 6/20/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-121, 6/ used by Iraq during the Gulf War. U.N. offi- 20/96 (6193). missile program may be more advanced than previously thought, one U.S. intelligence cials say that if Baghdad continues to defy source said that any program involving mis- UNSCOM inspection efforts, there is little IRAN WITH UKRAINE siles capable of reaching European capitals chance that sanctions on Iraq will be relaxed. is in its “rudimentary stages.” John M. Goshko, Washington Post, 3/12/96, p. A9 2/27/96* (6290). AFP (Paris), 3/11/96; in FBIS-NES-96-048, Stewart Stogel, Washington Times, 2/16/96, pp. A1, 3/11/96 (6290). In an interview conducted on an unspecified A19 (6081). date at an undisclosed location, Yevhen

162 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

3/18/96 4/11/96 6/12/96 In a briefing to the Security Council, UNSCOM released a report which asserts UNSCOM missile inspectors were prevented UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus said UNSCOM that Iraq continues to conceal illegal missiles from entering a Republican Guard installa- had been obstructed by Iraqi authorities on and equipment. The report says that Iraq pre- tion in the Al-Qadissiyah district of Baghdad. five occasions since 3/8/96. He accused Iraq sented the commission with incomplete in- Team leader Nikita Smidovich, a Russian of implementing “a pattern” of violations of formation and that Baghdad must “provide long-range missile expert, said the the cease-fire resolutions. Iraqi Deputy Prime evidence to show that it no longer possessed UNSCOM inspectors would remain at the Minister Tariq Aziz responded by writing a forbidden weapons and related materials.” site “as long as it takes.” letter to the Security Council in which he Iraq denied UNSCOM’s allegations, argu- New York Times, 6/14/96 (6337). described the accusations as “wrong and ing that it had complied with the U.N.’s de- baseless.” mands. 6/12/96 Evelyn Leopold, Reuter, 3/18/96; in Executive News Leon Barkho, Reuter, 4/22/96; in Executive News The U.N. Security Council passed a unani- Service, 3/18/96 (6290). AFP (Paris), 3/11/96; in Service, 4/22/96 (6294). mous resolution demanding that Iraq provide FBIS-NES-96-048, 3/11/96 (6290). “unrestricted access” for UNSCOM to all 4/22/96 suspected weapon sites. UNSCOM Chief 3/20/96 An UNSCOM team of 15 ballistic missile Rolf Ekeus said there was “a high probabil- UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus told a U.S. Sen- specialists arrived in Baghdad to identify and ity” that Baghdad was concealing items the ate subcommittee that UNSCOM suspected tag Iraqi missiles which have ranges of less commission is “convinced still exist” in Iraq. Iraq was hiding between six and 16 Scud than 93 miles. According to John Larrabee, Barbara Crossette, New York Times, 6/13/96, p. A8 SSMs on trucks that move between military the American leader of the inspection team, (6337). installations. According to U.N. sources, the the mission’s objective was to ensure that missiles were 650 km-range al-Hussein Iraq does not modify the ranges of these mis- 6/13/96 SSMs which can carry 300 kg warheads. siles “beyond what is permitted” under the Iraq prevented UNSCOM inspectors from According to Ekeus, UNSCOM’s five con- terms of the 1991 Gulf War cease-fire. Ac- entering two more sites near Baghdad. Al- frontations with Iraqi authorities over gain- cording to U.N. sources, Larrabee’s team will though UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus said one ing access to certain facilities in 3/96 can be remain in Baghdad for more than one week, of the sites belonged to the Republican explained by Baghdad’s desire to keep the and will perform spot checks in pursuit of Guard, he did not provide details about the missiles concealed. Ekeus said that although “banned materials.” second location. Ekeus said his inspectors senior Iraqi officials had informed him that Leon Barkho, Reuter, 4/22/96; in Executive News were seeking materials, documents, and all of Iraq’s missiles and warheads had been Service, 4/22/96 (6294). equipment related to Iraq’s ballistic missiles. destroyed, no documents existed to prove According to Ekeus, all the locations inspec- this, and U.N. inspectors had not been al- 5/5/96* tors wanted to gain access to “belonged to lowed to verify the remains. During an interview in Jordan, Wafiq al- government bodies guilty of concealing Christopher Bellamy, Independent, 3/23/96 (6266). Samarrai, former chief of Iraq’s Security documents or weapons” from UNSCOM. Arms Control Today, 3/96, p. 28 (6266). R. Jeffrey Services, said that Iraq still possessed 40 Financial Times, 6/14/96, p. 6 (6337). Smith, Washington Post, 3/21/96, pp. A1, A28 (6266). Washington Times, 3/21/96, p. A15 (6258). Scud missiles that could be fitted with chemi- cal, biological or conventional warheads. Al- 6/14/96 4/1/96* Samarrai also said Iraq still had 15 biological Iraq prevented UNSCOM from accessing According to senior U.N. sources, Baghdad warheads and once stockpiled over 1,000 two additional sites thought to house mate- has denied UNSCOM the opportunity to missiles. rials relating to its proscribed weapons. Ac- Valerio Pellizzari, Il Massaggero (Rome), 5/5/96, p. cording to Iraqi eyewitnesses, “scores” of question Lieutenant General Amir al-Sa’di, 12; in FBIS-NES-96-089, 5/5/96 (6079). an official well-acquainted with Iraq’s weap- UNSCOM inspectors guarded the entrances to several Republican Guard facilities on 6/ ons programs. The sources reported that 6/11/96 14/96. Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Sa’di had been introduced previously as a A group of 30 UNSCOM missile inspectors specialist in the Iraqi missile program. Aziz said the inspectors were denied access were prevented from entering a Republican for national security reasons, but added that UNSCOM now believes Sa’di is the “most Guard base located west of Baghdad. The important person concerned with the biologi- Baghdad would permit them to enter the sites subsequent standoff between the U.N. in- if he and UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus were cal programs, as well as the chemical and spectors and Iraqi officials lasted eight hours missile issues.” Iraqi authorities have told allowed to accompany them. at the site, which was reported to be “near a New York Times, 6/15/96 (6337). Leon Barkho, UNSCOM that Sa’di will not be able to talk prison in a Baghdad suburb.” Reuter, 6/14/96; in Executive News Service, 6/17/ to the commission until 4/5/96. New York Times, 6/12/96, p. A8 (6337). Executive 96 (6337). Khalil Matar, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), 4/1/96, News Service, 6/10/96 (6337). p. 2; in FBIS-NES-96-064, 4/1/96 (6256).

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 163 Missile Developments

6/19/96 6/24/96 concluded that Parliament and the public UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus arrived in UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus said that Iraq were “designedly led to believe that a stricter Baghdad to persuade Iraq to allow inspec- continues to hide weapons, components and policy toward non-lethal defense exports” to tors to enter Republican Guard sites sus- documentation, but added that he was confi- Baghdad had remained in force, when in re- pected of concealing prohibited weapons dent the new agreement would work. Ac- ality it had been changed. Prime Minister materials. cording to Ekeus, some of the Iraqi John Major initiated the investigation in 1993 S.V. Venkatraman, AFP (Paris), 6/24/96; in FBIS- institutions charged with concealing weap- following the trial of executives from Ma- NES-96-123, 6/25/96 (6337). ons-related materials are also responsible for trix Churchill, a U.K.-based industrial firm. President Saddam Hussein’s security, and The executives had been charged with vio- 6/20/96 this was why Baghdad was sometimes un- lating British regulations that prohibited the Wafiq al-Samarrai told the Al-Sharq Al- willing to give UNSCOM access to certain sale to Iraq of equipment that could be used Awsat newspaper’s bureau in Amman, Jor- sites. Ekeus said that Baghdad was hiding in the manufacture of sophisticated weapon dan, that Baghdad still possessed “scores of items by “static means” as well as on trucks systems. The trial collapsed after the gov- surface-to-surface missiles in the prohibited that could travel around Iraq. ernment was forced to release documents range.” Samarrai cited “reliable information” Washington Times, 6/25/96, p. A 15 (6337). revealing that it had actually encouraged the that Iraq still possessed 40 Al-Hussein SSMs, sale of sophisticated lathes to Iraq, in hope 25 of which were “in a disassembled form.” IRAQ WITH RUSSIA AND UNITED STATES of gaining intelligence about Baghdad’s The former head of Iraqi military intelligence weapons programs. said that Iraq was hiding “very important” 6/96 Stephanie Strom, New York Times, 2/27/96, p. A3 documents related to its weapons programs (6021). Stephanie Strom, New York Times, 2/16/96, Robert Einhorn, U.S. deputy assistant sec- pp. A1, A4 (6021). in the Republican Palace and in camps of retary of state for politico-miliatry afffairs, the Special Guard and the Republican Guard. told the House National Security Commit- Samarrai said he had “reliable information” tee there was “no indication” the Russian regarding houses in which documents were government “sanctioned” the transfer to Iraq ISRAEL kept, and added that some documentation of Russian-made ICBM gyroscopes and ac- was stored in armored personnel carriers and celerometers in 1995. A U.S. investigation tanks. of the transfer determined that the missile ‘Imad al-Furayh, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), 6/21/ 96, p. 6; in FBIS-NES-96-122, 6/21/96 (6237). components were smuggled out of Russia. INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS According to Einhorn, the U.S. is waiting for 6/22/96 a final report on the incident from the Rus- 4/96* After four days of talks with Iraqi Deputy sian government, although it is not known The Malat division of Israel Aircraft Indus- Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and other Iraqi when this will be received. tries (IAI) successfully tested a new design Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6/26/96, p. 6 (6272). officials, UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus told of its Eye View close-range unmanned aerial reporters in Bahrain that a “major break- vehicle (UAV). The 50 km-range Eye View IRAQ WITH UNITED KINGDOM through” had been made in Baghdad; this can carry a payload of 15 kg for up to four resulted in Iraq’s surrender of “new files on hours and is equipped with a Tamam plug-in 2/15/96 its illegal arms programs” and its pledge “to optronic payload (POP), which consists of grant total access to military bases.” Accord- The results of a three-year investigation into daylight and infrared sensors. Malat is also ing to Ekeus, Baghdad agreed to give Britain’s role in supplying Iraq with military- developing the Eye View II UAV, a 130 kg UNSCOM “immediate, complete and uncon- related equipment were made public. The version designed to carry a heavier payload. ditional access” to all of its suspected weapon report, written by high court judge Sir Rich- Defense News, 2/19/96, p. 16 (6251). International sites, and provided what Iraq described as ard Scott, determined that cabinet ministers, Defense Review, 4/96, p. 22 (6251). “final documents” on its missile, and chemi- including two men currently in the cabinet, ISRAEL WITH: cal and biological weapons programs. Ekeus had deliberately misled Parliament about the said that Iraq offered to submit a report to government’s policy towards the sale of Australia and United States, 150 the U.N. by the end of 6/96 with a “full, com- equipment to Iraq. The report did not, how- China, 153 plete and final declaration on all its weap- ever, find the ministers’ actions to be “du- France and United Kingdom, 155 ons programs.” Under the agreement, Ekeus plicitous in the sense of a cover-up.” The Hungary and Sweden, 157 and Aziz will also start reviewing develop- investigation also determined that former Ministry of Defence and Department of ments on a monthly basis. ISRAEL WITH SINGAPORE S.V. Venkatraman, AFP (Paris), 6/24/96; in FBIS- Trade and Industry representatives knew they were allowing the transfer to Iraq of equip- NES-96-123, 6/25/96 (6337). Washington Times, 6/ 4/22/96 25/96, p. A 15 (6337). ment that was being used to develop and pro- duce sophisticated weaponry. The report Tony Tan, Singapore’s deputy prime minis-

164 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments ter and defense minister, announced at the The secret venture will provide Israel and ing of foreign-controlled companies in the Tuas Naval Base that the Royal Singapore Turkey with missiles, and allows for the ex- U.S. Navy (RSN) has acquired Israeli-manufac- port of some missiles to NATO and other Ross Dunn, Times, 2/24/96 (6072). tured Barak anti-missile defense systems for countries. According to the report, Israeli six of its missile corvettes. Tan did not dis- specialists have complained that Israel’s lim- 2/6/96 cuss the price. In early 1996, the RSS Valour ited geographic size, in comparison to coun- The joint U.S.-Israeli Nautilus laser gun was was Singapore’s first corvette to be equipped tries like Turkey, limits its ability to conduct successfully test fired in New Mexico at the with the new missile; Tan said the remaining accurate missile tests. White Sands Missile Range. The laser was five corvettes will be fitted with fully opera- Syrian Arab Republic Radio Network (Damascus), situated at the High Energy Laser Systems tional Barak missile systems within the next 5/12/96; in FBIS-NES-96-093, 5/12/96 (6073). Test Facility (HELSTF). Nautilus destroyed 12 months. IAI is prime contractor for the an unarmed Russian 122 mm BM-21 rocket Barak system. Each of Singapore’s missile ISRAEL WITH UNITED KINGDOM 15 seconds after lock-on. Shi’ite guerrillas corvettes is already equipped with eight Har- in southern Lebanon regularly launch rock- poon ASMs, a 76 mm gun, and six White- 4/1/96* ets of this type into northern Israel from head anti-submarine torpedoes. Rafael offered its turbojet-powered Popeye southern Lebanon from truck-mounted, 40 Reuter, 4/22/96; in Executive News Service, 4/22/ Turbo missile to fulfill the U.K.’s conven- round BM-21 launchers. According to Israeli 96 (6009). Straits Times (Singapore), 4/23/96, p. 1; tionally armed stand-off missile (CASOM) defense officials, Israel became involved in in FBIS-EAS-96-083, 4/23/96 (6009). requirement. The 16 ft-long Popeye is a the Nautilus project in 1995. Plans for the slightly larger version of the USAF AGM- Nautilus Tactical High-Energy Laser ISRAEL WITH SWITZERLAND 142 Have Nap missile. Popeye, which has (THEL) include deploying the system in bat- the same 20 inch diameter as the AGM-142, teries of four-to-six vehicles capable of de- 2/21/96* can carry an imaging infrared warhead. Po- stroying a “high volume of incoming rockets” Tadiran signed a $35 million contract with litical concerns may thwart Rafael’s attempt fired from multiple rocket launchers. Mul- Switzerland’s Oerlikon Contraves to provide to supply Popeye, because the U.K. intends tiple Nautilus units could be used to protect ground-control systems and digital datalinks to export CASOM to its Tornado aircraft troop concentrations and towns near front for the Israeli-developed Ranger UAVs or- customers in the Middle East, such as Saudi lines, or individually in an anti-terrorist role dered by the Swiss Army. Tadiran will sup- Arabia. Officials at Rafael contend that the to defend military bases and cities against ply “digital datalinks for control and export issue is “solvable.” single rockets launched from “primitive guidance and video channels for image trans- John D. Morrocco, Aviation Week & Space Technol- launchers.” By 1999, Israel and the U.S. plan ogy, 4/1/96, pp. 52-54 (6264). mission and telemetry.” Oerlikon Contraves to deploy two prototypes of the Nautilus leads the consortium that will provide the 4/10/96* THEL air-defense system. Om 2/9/9/6, Avi Swiss Army with its Ranger UAVs. Tadiran Benayahu, Israeli Ministry of Defense me- Schlomo Milo, new president and chief ex- will deliver the system through 2000. dia advisor, said the Nautilus project was still Bruce D. Nordwall, Aviation Week and Space Tech- ecutive of Israel Military Industries (IMI), in the “initial stages and a very long way from nology, 3/18/96, p. 48 (6074). Flight International, said that British Aerospace was considering 2/21/96-2/27/96, p. 22 (6074). completion.” acquisition of a variant of IMI’s Delilah de- International Defense Review, 4/96, p. 13 (6292). coy vehicle. David A. Fulgham, Aviation Week and Space Tech- ISRAEL WITH TURKEY Arie Egozi, Flight International, 4/10/96-4/16/96, nology, 3/5/96, pp. 58-59 (6292). Steve Rodan, p. 23 (6259). Jerusalem Post (Jerusalem), 2/12/96, p. 2; in FBIS- 3/96 NES-96-029, 2/12/96 (6292). Flight International, Rafael concluded a $50 million contract to ISRAEL WITH UNITED STATES 2/21/96-2/27/96, p. 14 (6292). Reuter, 2/9/96; in Executive News Service, 2/9/96 (6292). provide the Turkish Air Force with televi- sion-guided Popeye air-to-surface missiles 2/96 2/11/96 for Ankara’s proposed $600 million F-4 A U.S. Congressional report accused Israeli According to David Ivri, director of Israel’s Phantom aircraft upgrade project. The up- agents of stealing secret information about Ministry of Defense, Israel intends to deploy grade is scheduled to begin in mid-1996 and “missile chemistry” from the U.S. Uri Dromi, the Arrow-2 ATBM by 1998, by which time will be done by prime contractor Israel Air- head of the Israeli government’s Jerusalem it is expected to have attained a “minimum craft Industries.. press office, refused to comment on the ac- Flight International, 3/27/96-4/2/96, p. 19 (6129). operational capability.” According to Joseph cusations until the Israeli embassy in Wash- Butler, acting director of the U.S. Army’s ington had reviewed the report. The report 5/12/96* Arrow program office, the U.S. will not fi- follows similar accusations made by an offi- nance production or purchase the system. Turkey will finance over 80 percent of a cial from the U.S. Department of Defense project to produce medium-to-long-range Pentagon officials have said the Arrow sys- (DOD) some months earlier and recom- tem is not portable enough to meet U.S. re- missiles with Israel, according to a report in mended that the DOD increase its monitor- the Al-Kifah Al-‘Arabi weekly magazine. quirements. U.S. Secretary of Defense

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 165 Missile Developments

William Perry recently committed $200 mil- 4/10/96* David A. Fulghum and Bruce D. Nordwall, Aviation lion for the Arrow deployment phase. Al- Week & Space Technology, 5/6/96, p. 23 (6262). John The U.S. corporation McDonnell Douglas Mintz, Washington Post, 4/25/96, p. A12 (6262). though the total cost of the Arrow program (MDD) opened a project office to assess a Jane’s Defence Weekly, 5/8/96, p. 19 (6262). Jeff has been estimated at $10 billion, Lt. Gen- “special version” of Israel Military Indus- Erlich, Defense News, 4/29/96-5/5/96, pp. 4, 36 eral Malcolm O’Neill, director of the U.S. tries’ (IMI) Delilah decoy missile. IMI be- (6314). Government Press Release (Jerusalem), 5/1/ Ballistic Missile Defense Organization lieves the missile could be utilized to develop 96; in FBIS-NES-96-086, 5/1/96 (6314). (BMDO), has told Congress it will cost less stand-off weapon systems. Although the U.S. 4/30/96 than that. Air Force is the most likely customer for the UPI, 2/11/96; in Executive News Service, 2/11/96 Delilah variant known as the “Light De- Prime Minister Shimon Peres said he would (6293). Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times, 3/ fender,” MDD would probably seek foreign keep pushing for the U.S. to install a ground 9/96, pp. A1, A5 (6293). Alan Be n-’Ami, Qol station in Israel to receive early warning in- Yisra’el (Jerusalem), 2/20/96; in FBIS-NES-96-035, markets for the missile. 2/20/96 (6293). Arie Egozi, Flight International, 4/10/96-4/16/96, formation of ballistic missile attacks directly p. 23 (6259). from American satellites. Jeff Erlich, Defense News, 5/6/96-5/12/96, p. 24 2/14/96* (6314). The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has 4/24/96 An unnamed Pentagon official said it was decided to halt production of the Hunter Joint 5/14/96 “not a foregone conclusion that the Nautilus Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (JTUAV), Uzi Rubin, director of the Israeli Missile which was developed by TRW and IAI. Paul will be funded.” The U.S. is scheduled to contribute $50 million of the $70 million Defense Organization, said the complete Kaminski, the DOD’s acquisition chief, said development and production of the Arrow that Hunter “failed to meet U.S. military re- program costs through 1998, starting with $25 million in 1997. Israel will pay $20 mil- ATBM system will cost $1.59 billion. Ac- quirements.” cording to Rubin, $700 million has already Flight International, 2/14/96-2/20/96, p. 27 (6255). lion in 1997. Gerald Wilson, manager of the Nautilus program, said the U.S. Army Space been spent on “the Arrow-2 missile and launcher, launcher control center, search and 2/20/96 and Strategic Defense Command would re- fire-control radar, fire-control center and Israel conducted the second test flight of its quire approximately 15 months to produce a workable prototype. costs to integrate the system into the Israel two-stage Arrow-2 ATBM at the Palmahim Air Force.” Rubin said that Arrow develop- launch site near Tel Aviv. The test was Jeff Erlich, Defense News, 4/29/96-5/5/96, pp. 4, 36 (6314). Washington Times, 4/29/96, pp. A1, A10 ment was fully funded until 2005, and he did deemed to have been a complete success by (6314).Government Press Release (Jerusalem), 5/1/ not foresee the need for further U.S. support IAI head Moshe Qeret. Although the Arrow- 96; in FBIS-NES-96-086, 5/1/96 (6314). beyond the $200 million earmarked by 2 deviated slightly during the initial stages Washington over the next five years. The of the launch, this was within test limits, and 4/28/96 U.S. will eventually have contributed a total the missile stabilized during the latter por- Prime Minister Shimon Peres and U.S. Sec- of $565 million toward the Arrow project. tion of its flight. According to IAI represen- retary of Defense William Perry signed a Israeli defense and industry officials have tatives, the launch tested several of the joint declaration on theater missile defense estimated that the Arrow system will be ready missile’s systems. The Arrow-2 was not (TMD). The agreement focuses on provid- for “initial deployment” by 1998 and will be aimed at a target, but the test provided “tac- ing Israel with better warning of ballistic fully operational by 2000. tical focal plane array data.” This was the missile attacks through satellite data from the Carmella Menashe, Defense News, 5/20/96-5/26/96, first test of its type for the Arrow’s fire-con- U.S. Defense Support Program. The U.S. p. 33 (6250). Arieh O’Sullivan, Jerusalem Post trol radar. Future tests will involve the inter- will provide $25 million in the first year of (Jerusalem), 5/15/96, p. 12; in FBIS-NES-96-095, ception of targets. Three additional launches the Nautilus program and Israel will invest 5/15/96 (6289). are scheduled for 1996. $20 million. The U.S. could end up paying Sharon Sade, Ha’Aretz (Tel Aviv), 2/22/96, p. A1; $50 million of an estimated total of $70 mil- in FBIS-NES-96-037, 2/22/96 (6293). Jane’s De- fence Weekly, 2/28/96, p. 17 (6293). F Alan Be n- lion during the initial three years of the pro- ITALY ’Ami, Qol Yisra’el (Jerusalem), 2/20/96; in FBIS- gram. In FY 1996, the U.S. provided $5 NES-96-035, 2/20/96 (6293). million to the Nautilus program, while Is- rael contributed $800,000. Pentagon officials 3/96 said the U.S. will probably provide Israel ITALY WITH: U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Dennis with the Mk 15 Phalanx close-in weapon France and United Kingdom, 155 Reimer requested $20 million a year from system as an interim anti-rocket capability Congress to fund the Nautilus project be- until Nautilus is ready for deployment. Sup- France, Germany, and United tween 1997 and 2001. porters of Nautilus want to promote the sys- States, 146 Jeff Erlich, Defense News, 4/29/96-5/5/96, pp. 4, 36 tem as a complement to the more expensive (6314). THAAD system which is designed to pro- vide missile defense over a wider range.

166 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

LIBYA WITH UKRAINE JAPAN KUWAIT 6/13/96* Ukraine and Libya established a joint com- mittee on technological cooperation, accord- JAPAN WITH: KUWAIT WITH: ing to U.S. intelligence sources. The Iran, 162 France, 155 committee is reported to include 13 senior France and United Kingdom, 156 officials and has arranged for several Libyan JAPAN WITH UNITED STATES delegations to visit Kharkov to become ac- KUWAIT WITH RUSSIA quainted with Ukrainian technological devel- 2/23/96 opment. Libyan specialists have visited The U.S. and Japan signed a memorandum 4/29/96* several research centers and industrial en- of understanding to study the potential of an A total of $228 million worth of offsets are terprises in Kharkov, where they met scien- anti-ballistic missile system, known as The- included in the Russian sale of Smerch mul- tists and representatives from Ukraine’s ater Missile Defense (TMD). According to tiple launch rocket systems and other de- military industrial complex. Yuri Shcherbak, officials, the U.S. agreed to provide Tokyo fense-related equipment to Kuwait. Offsets Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., claimed with TMD information; Japanese defense are sometimes requested by a country as a that accusations of a “strategic alliance” be- contractors are obliged to keep this informa- form of compensation in return for purchas- tween Ukraine and Libya are “absolutely tion secret. The Japanese Defense Agency ing defense-related items. Kuwait’s offset groundless.” According to Shcherbak, (JDA) plans to make a final decision on program was initiated in 1992 to “encour- Ukraine has acted in accordance with U.N. whether Japan should participate in the TMD age diversification and private enterprise in sanctions against Libya, despite the loss of project in FY 1997. The JDA allocated 440 the Kuwaiti economy.” commercial opportunities. Shcherbak cited million yen for TMD research and develop- Philip Finnegan, Defense News, 4/29/96-5/5/96, p. Ukraine’s export control system, founded ment in the FY 1996 state budget. 10 (6261). with considerable help from the U.S., as Kyodo (Tokyo), 2/23/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-037, 2/ proof of Kiev’s commitment to international 23/96 (6092). KUWAIT WITH UNITED STATES nonproliferation and technology transfer re- gimes. According to Shcherbak, this system 3/26/96 4/29/96* intercepted a “sensitive solid rocket fuel The U.S. and Japan met at the bilateral work- Four U.S. contractors committed themselves component” before it could be smuggled ing group level to discuss possible collabo- to $438 million worth of offsets for selling through Ukraine to Libya several years ago. ration on TMD issues for the fifth time since defense items such as Patriot ATBMs to Shcherbak asserted that Ukraine is just as 12/93. During the meeting, the U.S. repre- Kuwait. interested as the U.S. in maintaining a strong sentatives briefed their Japanese counterparts Philip Finnegan, Defense News, 4/29/96-5/5/96, p. export control system. The ambassador de- on America’s “ballistic missile-related bud- 10 (6261). scribed allegations that Ukraine has supplied get, progress in a review of its ballistic mis- Libya with weapons of mass destruction sile project and its cooperation with third technology under the guise of constructing a countries over this type of missile.” railroad in Libya as “groundless and illogi- Kyodo (Tokyo), 3/26/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-059, 3/ LIBYA 26/96 (6092). Kyodo (Tokyo), 2/23/96; in FBIS- cal.” He also pointed out that the U.S. has EAS-96-037, 2/23/96 (6092). never “cited or officially warned” Ukraine regarding its adherence to the sanctions against Libya. Some U.S. officials expressed 5/21/96 LIBYA WITH NETHERLANDS JDA Director General Hideo Usui told the concern over this cooperation because of the “House of Councilors’ Committee on the 6/7/96* possible transfer of ballistic missile technol- ogy and assistance from Ukraine to Libya, Cabinet” that a decision on whether Japan The Dutch Domestic Security Service’s which could be used to improve Tripoli’s will participate in the TMD project will be (BVD) annual report said Libya has covertly medium-range missiles. taken “as early as the summer of 1997.” Usui attempted to buy expertise and equipment in said he told the relevant officials to complete Nikolai Zimin, Segodnya, 6/13/96, p. 8 (6373). Yuri the Netherlands for its indigenous missile Shcherbak, Ukrainian Weekly, 6/23/96, pp. 2, 19 their research and to make a decision on development program. The report did not say (6277). Japan’s participation in the TMD project as specifically whether Libya had successfully soon as possible. purchased such items in the Netherlands. Yomiuri Shimbun (Tokyo), 5/22/96, p. 3; in FBIS- Algemeen Dagblad (Rotterdam), 6/7/96, p. 7; in EAS-96-103, 5/22/96 (6176). FBIS-TOT-96-018-L, 6/7/96 (6315).

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 167 Missile Developments

LIBYA WITH UNITED STATES try of origin unknown) was to complete de- livery to Pakistan. The ammonium perchlo- 5/19/96 NETHERLANDS rate, which was mislabeled as “resin,” was Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi announced not supposed to be offloaded in Taiwan, but that his country is exploring ways to develop the Taiwanese authorities had received a tip an anti-missile system in response to U.S. as to the nature of the chemicals. However, threats to attack what Washington suspects NETHERLANDS WITH: because the cargo was largely Taiwanese, to be a chemical weapons plant located 60 Libya, 167 they were able to offload the entire shipment. km south east of Tripoli, in the Tarhunah However, since Taiwan was not the final mountain range. The U.S. announced in 4/ destination of the ammonium perchlorate, 96 that it had not ruled out using conven- port authorities could not confiscate the tional weapons to stop Libya from complet- NORTH KOREA cargo. Instead, they fined the vessel’s agent ing the plant. for making a false declaration, and then Reuter, 5/20/96; in Executive News Service, 5/20/ alerted Taiwanese police, who seized the 96 (6169). James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6/ ammonium perchlorate on the grounds that 26/96, p. 18 (6285). INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS bomb-making chemicals were being smuggled. 4/17/96* DPA-Yonhap (Taipei); in FBIS-EAS-96-062-A, 3/ MALAYSIA The current status of the No-dong interme- 13/96 (5991). diate-range ballistic missile program is un- clear, with some reports indicating that it is NORTH KOREA WITH UNITED STATES delayed by financial and technical problems, and others stating that production is under 4/21/96 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS way and some 60 operational missiles have U.S. and North Korean negotiators met in been manufactured. North Korea continues Berlin for talks on missile proliferation is- 4/23/96 to develop its Taepo-dong-1 and -2 missiles, sues, focusing specifically on North Korean The biennial Defense Services Asia exhibi- with the first test flight of the Taepo-dong-1 development and sales of its long-range mis- tion opened in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, with (also known as the No-dong-3) expected in sile. Leading the delegations were Robert 626 companies displaying “a lethal array of 1997. If it chooses to test to the Taepo-dong’s Einhorn, U.S. assistant secretary of state for missiles, guns, and armor-piercing shells.” full 2,000 km range, North Korea would be politico-military affairs, and Yi Hyong-choe, Malaysian Defense Minister Syed Hamid required to launch the missile over Japan or of the North Korean Foreign Ministry. This Albar opened the exhibition by announcing off the coast of China and Taiwan. was the first talk in a series; the next round that Malaysia, while considering new defense Duncan Lennox, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 4/17/96, pp. has not yet been scheduled. purchases, wanted to establish itself as a 40, 43-44 (5996). Reuter, 4/21/96; in Executive News Service, 4/23/ “major arms exporter.” 96 (5998). Ian Stewart, Washington Times, 4/26/96, p. A14 NORTH KOREA WITH: (6090). China and Iran, 153 Egypt, 154 MALAYSIA WITH: PAKISTAN Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, NORTH KOREA WITH PAKISTAN AND South Africa, Taiwan, and TAIWAN Vietnam, 160 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 3/7/96 Taiwanese authorities at the port of Early 1996 MOLDOVA Kaohsiung discovered a 15 MT shipment of Saleem Mahmood, chief scientist at ammonium perchlorate, which is used in Pakistan’s Defense Science and Technology missile rocket motors, on the Chongsung- Organisation (DESTO), said Pakistan had ho, a ship that originated in Nampo, North developed an “interceptor” missile capable MOLDOVA WITH: Korea, and was destined for “an institute for of countering India’s Prithvi SSM. The mis- Austria, Hungary, India, Romania, and space and atmospheric research” in Karachi, sile will use “highly sensitive radar” to de- Switzerland, 150 Pakistan. The Chongsung-ho was to deliver tect SSM launches before neutralizing them the ammonium perchlorate to Hong Kong, in the air. Mahmood also said Pakistan was where the Maersk Shipping Company (coun- “fully capable of retaliating against any [mis- sile] attack.” Mahmood was formerly head

168 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments of Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Qatar’s new craft is equipped with eight Research Commission (SUPARCO). Aerospatiale Exocet AShMs, a Matra De- Jang (Rawalpindi), 2/8/96, pp. 1, 5; in FBIS-TAC- PHILIPPINES fense Sadral SAM system, an OTOBreda 76 95-005, 2/8/96 (6112). mm Super Rapid Gun, and a Signaal Goal- keeper close-in weapon system. PAKISTAN WITH: Richard Scott, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6/26/96, p. France, 156 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 28 (6286). India and Russia, 159 India and United States, 159 5/21/96 North Korea and Taiwan, 168 Commodore Luis Ordonio, chief of the Phil- ROMANIA ippines naval staff, said his country plans to PAKISTAN WITH SOUTH AFRICA acquire six corvettes equipped with SSMs, SAMs, and anti-submarine weapons. The acquisition will be part of a 15-year naval 2/96 ROMANIA WITH: modernization program, and will include 12 South Africa’s Kentron was expected to win Austria, Hungary, India, Moldova, and new patrol vessels, 52 patrol craft, and three a 600 million rand ($164 million) contract Switzerland, 169 to supply Pakistan with missiles. According frigates. The Philippines Navy does not cur- to news reports, a representative from rently possess any missile systems. Kentron’s parent company, Denel, said dis- Executive News Service, 5/22/96 (6175). cussions with Pakistan had reached “a fairly RUSSIA PHILIPPINES WITH: advanced stage.” Kentron manufactures sur- face-to-air missiles, air-to-air missiles, pilot- Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South less drones, and other advanced defense Africa, Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 equipment. Kentron and Denel officials were INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS not available to comment on the proposed sale. Early 1996 Reuter, 2/13/96; in Executive News Service, 2/13/ POLAND 96 (6011). Russia conducted a series of test firings of its new OTR short-to-medium-range tacti- PAKISTAN WITH UKRAINE cal ballistic missile. The mobile, solid-fuel missile has a range of 400 km. POLAND WITH: Flight International, 3/13/96-3/19/96, p. 17 (6119). 4/16/96* Belarus, Czech Republic, and Russia, 151 Ukraine reportedly offered Tochka tactical 2/96 missiles to Pakistan. Aleksandr Sychev, Izvestiya, 4/16/96, p. 3 (6187). Russian President Boris Yeltsin approved the QATAR use of Svobodny-18—a former military gar- rison near the Chinese-Russian border—as PAKISTAN WITH UNITED STATES Russia’s newest operational space launch 4/18/96 center. The new site is officially the “State Second Experimental Cosmodrome,” and it Pakistani Foreign Secretary Najmuddin QATAR WITH: will be built in Amur Oblast near the city of Sheikh said that the U.S. intends to begin France and Iran, 155 Svobodny. The site’s “low geographical lati- shipping $368 million worth of military tude” should make rockets launched from equipment to Pakistan within the next six to QATAR WITH UNITED KINGDOM Svobodny between 20 and 25 percent more eight weeks. The shipment includes 28 Har- powerful than similar rockets launched from poon ASMs, P3-C Orion aircraft, Sidewinder 5/8/96 Plesetsk. The Russian Strategic Rocket AAMs, rockets, and rocket launchers. The Qatar received the Barzan, a fast strike craft, Forces (SRT) division that was previously equipment has been embargoed in the U.S. from the U.K.’s Vosper Thornycroft, follow- stationed at Svobodny left behind infrastruc- since 10/90 under the Pressler Amendment. ing contractor’s sea and weapon trials. Al- Flight International, 5/1/96-5/7/96, p. 18 (6113). ture valued at 1.5 trillion rubles. According Muslim (Islamabad), 4/19/96, pp. 1, 5; in FBIS-NES- though this ship is designed on the hullform to Aleksandr Vinidiktov, head of the 96-079, 4/19/96 (6113). of the Province-class fast attack craft, which Svobodny Cosmodrome, 70 percent of “what Vosper Thornycroft built for Oman in the is needed to launch a satellite is already in 1980s, the new design features a fully dis- place.” Decommissioned SS-11 ICBM silos tributed sensor, weapon, and command suite. may be used to launch Rokot SLVs by the

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 169 Missile Developments end of 1996. Policies, must also give their approval. Aleksandr Yegorov, Krasnaya Zvezda, 4/9/96, p. 1 Flight International, 2/14/96-2/20/96, p. 33 (6216). Ron Laurenzo, UPI, 3/14/96; in Executive News (6360). Russian Public Television First Channel Network Service, 3/14/96 (6115). (Moscow), 4/7/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-071, 4/7/96 4/17/96 (6216). Tim Furniss, Flight International, 3/13/96- 4/96 3/19/96, p. 19 (6216). Russia conducted the first “1996 combat Fifteen directors representing the Russian launching” of the RS-12M Topol (SS-25 2/7/96 defense industry presented a letter to Presi- ‘Sickle’) ICBM at the Plesetsk state test President Boris Yeltsin chaired a meeting of dent Yeltsin in which they generally sup- range. According to SRT spokesman Ilshat the Russian Federation Security Council to ported his policy towards the Russian defense Baychurin, the ICBM successfully hit a train- discuss methods to guarantee technological sector. Among the signatories were Igor ing target in the Kamchatka area. Although security. Among others, the meeting was at- Velichko, general designer at the Miass State the Topol ICBM has been deployed for the tended by Prime Minister Viktor Missile and Rocket Center, and Boris past 12 years, this most recent launch will Chernomyrdin, Defense Minister Pavel Katorgin, general director of the Glushkov enable Russia to extend the lifetime of these Grachev, and Security Council Secretary Machinery Production company. Glushkov rockets. Russia’s strategic nuclear forces Oleg Lobov. According to Lobov, the Secu- is the principal manufacturer of engines for development program foresees the use of rity Council was concerned that Russian Russia’s strategic missiles and space rock- Topol ICBMs as a base unit of the SRT aviation, missile, space, and shipbuilding ets. The directors supported the creation of through 2005. financial and industrial groups within the Boris Kipkeyev, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 4/17/96; in industries were overly dependent on com- FBIS-SOV-96-076, 4/17/96 (6118). panies based in other CIS countries, such as Russian defense industry, such as the Antey industrial group, the Aviation Consortium, Ukraine. 5/8/96 Grigoriy Nekhoroshev and Nikolay Ulyanov, and Kompomash. They also issued certain Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Moscow), 2/8/96, p. 1; in demands, including: increasing state protec- Konstantin Morev, spokesman for Russia’s FBIS-SOV-9-076-S, 2/8/96 (6117). tion of Russia’s defense producers in both Krasnoyarsk security department, announced domestic and international markets; federal that a scientist arrested for producing and 2/22/96 funding for the most competitive defense exporting over one kilogram of radioactive Two intruders were apprehended at a mili- projects; focused state financial support; material was not selling “plutonium or any tary base in the Primorsky region of Russia guaranteed international contracts and finan- other fissionable material,” but rather a dual- where ballistic missiles are stored. The two cial credits for developing high technology use substance that could be applied “as a individuals had tools which could have been and weapon systems; and the government’s coating for ballistic missiles.” The “very used to extract precious metals from the mis- compliance with the terms of state contracts solid and highly heat-proof” dual-use sub- siles. concluded with the principal Russian defense stance was developed and patented by the Interfax (Moscow), 2/23/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-038, manufacturers. Krasnoyarsk Technical University. Accord- 2/23/96 (6105). Larisa Sayenko, Moscow News, 2/ Viktor Litovkin, Izvestiya, 4/16/96, p. 1 (6356). ing to Morev, those responsible for devel- 22/96-2/28/96, p. 13 (6105). Segodnya, 2/24/96, p. oping the material were not involved in its 5 (6357). 4/96 illicit sale. Although Morev would not di- 3/14/96 Andrey Kokoshin, first deputy to the Rus- vulge which nations purchased the substance, he noted that between one and ten kilos of News agency Itar-Tass reported that seven sian defense minister, Yakov Urinson, first the substance could have been exported. In privatized Russian arms manufacturers have deputy minister of economics, and Yuriy 4/96, the Krasnoyarsk Prosecutor’s Office been given the authority to export weapons, Starodub of the State Committee on the De- charged a local resident with illegally export- a privilege previously enjoyed only by fense Industry, met in Dubna to discuss the ing dual-use goods. MAPO-MiG, which produces Russia’s MiG development of highly accurate, long-range weapons. Along with military representa- Itar-Tass (Moscow), 5/8/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-091, family of aircraft. The seven companies in- 5/8/96 (6094). clude: Izhmash; Metrovagonmash; tives, they discussed the work of the Raduga Gidromash; Rosvertol; the Antei Concern; design and engineering center and the joint 5/20/96* stock company “Dubnensky the Ufa Engine Building Amalgamation; and Russia’s Makeyev State Rocket Center is Mashinostroitelniy Zavod.” They also dis- the Tula Instrument Building Bureau. Ac- scheduled to conduct the world’s first orbital cussed the possible merger of the two com- cording to Valery Pogrebenkov, spokesper- launch of a satellite using a converted bal- panies. Both companies are famous son for Russia’s official state arms-export listic missile from a submarine. According producers of missiles, missile equipment, and organization Rosvoorouzhenie, shipments to Vyacheslav Danilkin, deputy head of for- other highly accurate long-range weapons. must still be approved by the defense minis- eign economic relations at Makeyev, a sub- The participants discussed a final draft of the try, foreign ministry, and intelligence ser- marine in the Barents Sea will use a Shtil-2 development program for highly accurate, vices. President Boris Yeltsin, First Deputy rocket to launch a 100 kg Earth observation long-range weapons as part of Russia’s de- Prime Minister Oleg Soskovets, and the satellite for Russia’s Institute of the Physics fense modernization plans. Chief Commission for Military Technical of Earth Magnetism. Makeyev launched a

170 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

105 kg re-entry capsule in 6/95 using a con- range doubled to 30 km. missiles in return for Russian supplies of verted SS-N-23 missile (Volna) from a sub- Pytor Yudin, Defense News, 6/24/96-6/30/96, p. 72 military-technical equipment. marine in the Barents Sea. Makeyev has also (6268). Ilya Bulavinov, Kommersant-Daily (Moscow), 3/28/ been working on the Rikshaw-1, a rocket 96, pp. 1, 3; in FBIS-SOV-96-063, 3/28/96 (6114). RUSSIA WITH: Galina Nekrasova, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 3/21/96; in designed specifically for orbital missions and FBIS-SOV-96-057, 3/21/96 (6141). Interfax (Mos- free of the technical problems involved in Australia, Brazil, and United States, 149 cow), 2/29/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-042, 2/29/96 converting missiles. The two-stage Rikshaw- Belarus, 151 (6141). Interfax (Moscow), 3/29/96; in FBIS-SOV- 1 is designed to launch small commercial Belarus, Czech Republic, and 96-063, 3/29/96 (6114). satellites from land or sea. Hungary, 151 4/1/96 Peter B. de Selding, Space News, 5/20/96-5/26/96, Belarus, Czech Republic, and p. 6 (6165). Ten SS-19 ICBMs from a combined missile Poland, 151 unit near Khmelnytskyy were scheduled to 6/6/96 Bulgaria, 152 be taken off alert status, but Russian and A combat crew from the SRT’s “experimen- China, 153 Ukrainian missile specialists did not have tal directorate” conducted a successful test Egypt, 154 sufficient funds to complete the job. launch of an RS-18 SS-19 ICBM from “the Finland, 155 Viktor Litovkin, Finansovyye Izvestiya (Moscow), vicinity” of the Baikonur Cosmodrome in France, 156 5/14/96, p. 2; in FBIS-TAC-96-006, 5/14/96 (6279). Kazakstan. The ICBM’s six warheads hit India, 159 their targets in Kamchatka with great preci- 4/12/96 India and Pakistan, 159 Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin signed sion, according to the Russian strategic India and United States, 160 rocket forces’s press center. The launch was Russian Federation Government Decree No. Indonesia, 160 designed to validate “the storage and per- 419 “On the Conclusion of the Agreement formance characteristics” of SS-19 ICBMs, Iraq and United States, 164 between the Russian Federation Government with an eye to extending their operational Kuwait, 167 and the Ukrainian Government on the Trans- lifetime. Colonel General Viktor Yesin, chief fer to the Russian Federation for Further Use of the main staff of Russia’s SRT, said 25 RUSSIA WITH SOUTH AFRICA of the Arms and Military Hardware of the similar launches have been conducted suc- Strategic Missile Complexes Stored in the cessfully since the SRT was established in 4/23/96-4/27/96 Ukraine’s Arsenals.” Rossiyskaya Gazeta (Moscow), 5/13/96, p. 9; in 1992. South Africa hosted the Africa Aviation ’96 FBIS-TAC-96-006, 5/13/96 (6269). Viktor Litovkin, Anatoliy Yurkin, Itar-Tass, 6/6/96; in FBIS-SOV-96- exhibition. Russia’s “Aviation Technologi- Finansovyye Izvestiya (Moscow), 5/14/96, p. 2; in 111, 6/6/96 (6174). cal Complex imini Tupolev” displayed tar- FBIS-TAC-96-006, 5/14/96 (6279). get drones at the exhibition, while the Fakel 6/24/96* Design Bureau displayed missiles designed 6/1/96 Valery Pogrebenkov, spokesman for Russia’s for the S-300PMU-1 air-defense system. Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma said the official arms export agency Nikolay Novichkov and Lyubov Milovanova, withdrawal of all nuclear warheads from Rosvoorouzhenie, said Russia is promoting Finansovyye Izvestiya (Moscow), 4/23/96, p. 2; in Ukraine to Russia had been completed. FBIS-SOV-96-093-S, 4/23/96 (6084). its Smerch advanced multiple launch rocket Ukrainian observers will be present to con- system in the Persian Gulf as part of an ex- firm the destruction of these warheads in RUSSIA WITH UKRAINE tensive marketing campaign intended to Russia. make it “as well-known on the world market Ustina Markus, OMRI Daily Digest, 6/3/96 (6210). as the Russian-made MiG and Sukhoi com- 3/29/96 Interfax (Moscow), 6/1/96; in FBIS-TAC-96-007, 6/ bat aircraft and the T-72 tank.” Pogrebenkov Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev 1/96 (6210). said a number of unspecified Persian Gulf announced plans for the transfer of 25 stra- countries are engaged in negotiations to buy tegic bombers from Ukraine to Russia. Ac- 6/24/96* the Smerch system from Russia, and cording to Petr Deynekin, Leaders of the Russian and Ukrainian space Rosvoorouzhenie intends to make the sys- commander-in-chief of the Russian Air agencies were expected to sign a space co- tem one of its most profitable weapons in its Force, the transfer will include 10 Tu-160 operation agreement to iron out differences future arms exports. According to and 15 Tu-95 MS aircraft currently stationed between the two nations. The agreement was Pogrebenkov, sales of the Smerch system will in Uzin and Priluki, Ukraine. Approximately to ensure Ukrainian access to both of Russia’s account for the greatest portion of Russia’s 300 air-to-ground guided missiles will be launch sites, but not to permit Ukraine’s Zenit 1996 arms export profits. Pogrebenkov also included in the transfer, which was negoti- rocket to be used for the international space said the Splav factory in Tula plans to mod- ated during talks between Grachev and station project. ernize the second-generation Grad rocket Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy Shmarov Space News, 6/24/96-6/30/96, p. 2 (6321). launcher. The modernized Grad has had its in Tysovets, Ukraine. Agreement was also reached on Ukraine’s exchange of 32 SS-19

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 171 Missile Developments

RUSSIA WITH UKRAINE AND the UAE belong. engine, and was developed jointly by Pratt UNITED STATES Philip Finnegan and Frank Olivieri, Defense News, & Whitney and Russia’s NPO-Energomash. 2/19/96-2/25/96, pp. 1, 29 (6228). The Russian military originally considered 3/15/96 the RD-180 too sensitive to export (for na- RUSSIA WITH UNITED NATIONS Two U.S. employees of Electrodine Systems tional security reasons). Lockheed-Martin chose the RD-180 over Russia’s NK-33 en- of New Jersey were arrested and charged 2/96 with the unauthorized transfer of secret plans gine in 1/96 for its upgraded Atlas-II booster. On a trip to Moscow, UNSCOM Chief Rolf for radar systems, missile guidance systems, Russia reportedly did not want to export the Ekeus met Russian First Deputy Minister and flight monitoring systems to defense in- NK-33 engine because the price was con- Igor Ivanov, Deputy Minister Viktor dustry plants in Russia and Ukraine. Since sidered too low. Posuvalyuk, and Vladimir Lukin, chairman the late 1980s, the Pentagon has awarded Post-Soviet Nuclear & Defense Monitor, 4/5/96, p. of the State Duma Committee for Interna- 15 (6297). Electrodine Systems approximately 100 con- tional Affairs, to discuss issues related to tracts on the condition that all production Iraq. Ekeus said that despite increased Iraqi 5/3/96 would take place in the U.S. However, cooperation with the U.N., it was not clear The U.S. State Department announced in the Electrodine secretly subcontracted some of whether Baghdad was being totally forthright Federal Register that it was no longer U.S. the work to unspecified plants in Russia and in exposing its WMD development pro- policy to automatically deny license requests Ukraine and illegally brought the products grams. to export defense-related goods and services into the U.S. The two employees, Dennis Elmar Guseynov, Izvestiya (Moscow), 2/7/96, p. 3; to Russia. All license requests submitted by Latan, of Iranian origin, and Viktor Lander, in FBIS-SOV-96-026, 2/7/96 (6080). U.S. firms to export defense-related goods originally from the former Soviet Union, and services to Russia will in the future be have not been charged officially with espio- RUSSIA WITH UNITED STATES examined on a “case-by-case basis with a nage or intent to harm U.S. interests. presumption of approval.” Russia will also Vseukrainskiye Vedomosti (Kiev), 3/14/96, p. 1; in 3/21/96 FBIS-SOV-96-054, 3/14/96 (6104). Intelnews be taken off the list of proscribed export des- (Kiev), 3/16/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-053, 3/16/96 Valentin Smirnov, chief designer at the tinations in section 126.1 of the International (6104). Novator Experimental Design Bureau and Traffic in Arms Regulations. former general designer at the Kalinin Plant Export Practitioner, 6/96, p. 21 (6226). RUSSIA WITH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (ZIK), which manufactures the S-300 air defense system, was assassinated at the en- 6/4/96 6/24/96* trance of his apartment block in Itar-Tass reported that the U.S. and Russia The UAE expressed an interest in purchas- Yekaterinburg. According to experts, the had initiated their first joint tactical anti-mis- ing Grad rocket launchers from Russia to murder was well-prepared and profession- sile defense exercises at the Falcon military “cool the ardor” of Iraq and other potential ally carried out. Smirnov was well-known base in Colorado. During the exercises, 20 foes, according to an unnamed senior diplo- in Russian military-industrial circles and had U.S. experts and 18 Russian anti-missile spe- mat from the Persian Gulf,. access to state secrets as one of the principal cialists practiced “coordinated anti-missile Pytor Yudin, Defense News, 6/24/96-6/30/96, p. 72 designers of the 9M82 Giant and 9M83 defense operations that could be used dur- (6268). Gladiator missiles for the S-300 system. ing future joint peacekeeping missions.” The Smirnov was also involved in designing the Russian group of experts was led by Gen- RUSSIA WITH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Galosh missile used in Moscow’s anti-mis- eral Viktor Niruk. AND UNITED STATES sile system, and the Krug anti-aircraft mis- Constantine Dmitriev, OMRI Daily Digest, 6/5/96 sile system. Smirnov was also responsible (6179). 2/15/96 for developing ship-launched land-attack U.S. Army officials met with Raytheon Co. missiles, the Vodopad and Alfa ASMs, and RUSSIA AND YUGOSLAVIA executives in an effort to foil Russia’s at- other classified missile systems. tempts to sell the SA-12 air-defense system Sergey Avdeyev, Komsomolskaya Pravda, 3/22/96/ 2/96 to the UAE at approximately half the price -3/29/96, p. 2; in FBIS-SOV-96-058, 3/25/96 (6353). Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev Aleksandr Pashkov and Viktor Litovkin, Izvestiya, signed a protocol on military cooperation of the Raytheon-produced Patriot air-defense 3/22/96, p. 1 (6353). system. U.S. Army and Raytheon represen- between Russia and the Federal Republic of tatives have been discussing the possible sale 4/5/96* Yugoslavia. Under the protocol, Russia will settle its Serbian wheat debt by providing of Patriot systems with UAE officials for the The U.S. firm Pratt & Whitney received of- Yugoslavia with an unspecified number of past two years. U.S. Army officials are con- ficial approval from the Russian government ballistic missiles, a squadron of Mi-24 heli- cerned the SA-12 does not complement the to import the RD-180 rocket engine for use copters, and a squadron of MiG-29 jets. S- U.S. systems maintained by other members in Lockheed-Martin’s upgraded Atlas-II 300 missiles are also believed to be part of of the coalition to which both the U.S. and SLV. The RD-180 is based on the RD-170

172 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments the Russian transfer, as well as “surface-to- replacement for the Cactus SAM in conjunc- pedite delivery of two Theater High Altitude surface ballistic missiles, whose range can tion with the South African Navy (SAN) and Area Defense (THAAD) systems to South be increased by making modifications and the SAAF. South Africa’s technology dem- Korea. Shalikashvili explained that, though using different rocket fuels.” The warheads onstrator programs include a ramjet-powered Luck was correct to be concerned about ob- for these missiles can reportedly be “filled missile. taining the best possible protection against with military poisons.” Although Serbia has Helmoed Roemer-Heitman, International Defense North Korean missiles, current budget con- the technological capability to modify Rus- Review, 3/96, pp. 23-26 (6013). straints required him to channel funding to- sian-supplied missiles, particularly at the wards the acquisition of aircraft, tanks, Krusik factory in Valjevo and the Merima SOUTH AFRICA WITH: trucks, and tents. While expressing regret that factory in Krusevac, military experts from Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, lack of funding is slowing down the THAAD Russia could be brought in to assist “exist- Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 program, Shalikashvili defended his decision ing teams” at the Zarkov Aircraft-Technical Pakistan, 169 on the grounds that the U.S. response Institute. Russia, 171 matches the present threat from North Ko- Vladimir Jovanovic, Monitor (Podgorica), 3/15/96, rea. Until THAAD is ready, the U.S. will pp. 15-16; in FBIS-EEU-96-061, 3/15/96 (6101). deploy the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missile-defense system and the navy SOUTH KOREA lower-tier system. SAUDI ARABIA Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 2/16/96, p. A8 (5986). 6/10/96 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Officials from South Korea and the U.S. met in Seoul for a two-day series of talks con- SAUDI ARABIA WITH: 6/29/96* cerning nonproliferation of weapons of mass France, 156 South Korea will increase defense spending destruction, particularly missile technology. beyond the 4.1-7.4 percent limit imposed ROK Foreign Ministry Director-General for since 1989. Purchases will include, 27 mul- American Affairs Yu Myung-hwan headed SINGAPORE tiple launch rocket systems, the U.S. Army’s the South Korean delegation, while U.S. 165-km surface-to-surface ATACMS mis- Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Po- siles (including 950 bomblets in each canis- litico-Military Affairs Robert Einhorn led the ter), AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, U.S. delegation. On 6/11/96, the two delega- and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft. tions agreed that South Korea should enter SINGAPORE WITH: Digital Chosun Ilbo WWW (Internet); in FBIS-EAS- into the Missile Technology Control Regime Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, 96-131, 6/29/96 (6401). (MTCR). Although the sides have not agreed South Africa, Taiwan, and on all of the terms of the ROK’s entry into Vietnam, 160 SOUTH KOREA WITH: the MTCR, the U.S. has agreed to extend Israel, 164 France, 157 South Korea’s allowable maximum missile range to 300 km, if South Korea joins the SOUTH KOREA WITH UNITED STATES MTCR. Currently, under a U.S.-ROK memo- randum of understanding, South Korea is SOUTH AFRICA 2/5/96* limited to developing missiles with a maxi- The South Korean firm Samsung is hiring mum range of 180 km, and South Korea is scientists and engineers from the U.S. who interested in developing longer-range mis- have knowledge about stealth technologies. siles. In 1995, the ROK announced that, in INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Samsung is telling prospective employees response to North Korea’s deployment of the that South Korea seeks to expand its defense No-dong-1 and the Taepo-dong-2, it intended 3/96* exports, including aircraft and missiles. to abrogate the MoU. The two sides are ex- The South African Army (SAA) is develop- James R. Asker, Aviation Week & Space Technol- pected to meet again in 9/96. ing long-range air defense radars and the AS- ogy, 2/5/96, p. 25 (5989). Seoul Sinmun, p. 2; in FBIS-EAS-96-048, 3/8/96 2000 artillery target engagement system, (5993). Korea Herald (Internet), 6/12/96 (6402). while the South African Air Force (SAAF) 2/15/96 is developing the modular precision stand- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen- off weapon (MUPSOW), in addition to up- eral John Shalikashvili turned down a 12/11/ grading the Cactus SAM system. The SAA 95 request by the Commander of U.S. Forces is also developing the SAHV-3 SAM as a in South Korea, General Gary Luck, to ex-

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 173 Missile Developments

5/6/96 THAILAND WITH: Taiwan has allocated $94.5 million to the Australia, 150 SWEDEN Chungshan Institute of Science and Technol- ogy toward the development of an early- warning radar system. The planned system would grant Taiwan a warning time of five TURKEY SWEDEN WITH: minutes against the 600 km-range Dong Hungary and Israel, 157 Feng-15 (M-9). The proposed radar system would have higher operating frequencies, a high degree of analytical capability, and a INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS small mass. If deployed at a high altitude SWITZERLAND overlooking the sea, it will also be capable 2/96* of detecting low-flying cruise missiles. Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense re- Lien-Ho Pao (Taipei) p. 3; in FBIS-CHI-96-095, 5/ quested “proposals from potential suppliers” 6/96 (6423). of Russian-made Antey 9K33 Osa ‘Gecko’ SWITZERLAND WITH: (SA-8) SAMs. Austria, Hungary, India, Moldova, and TAIWAN WITH: International Defense Review, 2/96, p. 9 (6016). Romania, 150 Australia, 150 Israel, 165 China, 153 TURKEY WITH: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Israel, 165 Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 TAIWAN UKRAINE THAILAND INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS UKRAINE WITH: 4/22/96* China, 153 Over the next five years, Taiwan will allo- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Germany and United States, 157 cate $144 million toward the development India, 160 of the Sky Bow anti-missile system. The 3/31/96* Iran, 162 Taiwanese defense ministry would like to The Defense Ministry released a white pa- Libya, 167 complete Sky Bow missile testing by 2000. per detailing the functions, duties, and mis- Pakistan, 169 According to the China Times Express, the sions of the country’s Defense Forces of the Russia, 171 ministry’s General Staff Department (GSD) Future. According to the paper, the Royal Russia and United States, 172 recently canceled plans to develop the Sky Thai Army will consider employing “multi- Bow II air defense missile into a short-range barrel rocket launchers” and developing and surface-to-surface missile (SSM). The GSD’s improving battlefield surveillance equipment UKRAINE WITH UNITED STATES reasons for cancellation were financial limi- for night operations. The army will also de- tations and technological problems with the velop “artillery range and fire-control sys- 2/96 missile, including a “limited destructive tems” and its anti-aircraft weapons will be Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and power” due to the lack of a precision guid- upgraded to include missiles. The white pa- U.S. Vice President Al Gore signed an inter- ance system. In addition, Lien-Ho Pao re- per stated that Thailand’s naval forces will governmental agreement on “international ported that the military “has no intention of be enhanced by the development of “surveil- trade in the area of commercial services con- resuming research and development” of its lance, electronic warfare, command and con- cerning space launches.” According to medium-range SSM program. (No further trol, and intelligence gathering equipment,” Volodymyr Gorbulin, secretary of the Ukrai- explanation was reported) as well as “modern long-range all-weather nian National Security Council and former Reuter; in Executive News Service, 4/22/96. Lien- weapons.” The Royal Thai Air Force will head of the Ukrainian National Space Ho Pao (Taipei) p. 1; in FBIS-TAC-96-007, 4/22/ Agency, the agreement provided Ukraine 96. (6344.) develop and improve early warning systems, anti-aircraft weapons, and fighter/intercep- with access to the commercial space launch tor aircraft. market. The agreement permits Ukraine to Sunday Post (Bangkok), 3/31/96, p. 17; in FBIS- offer the commercial launch services of its EAS-96-064, 3/31/96 (6008). Zenit and Tsyklon rockets.

174 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments

Ukrainian Weekly, 5/26/96, pp. 3, 13 (6227). Dmytro larity to that missile. Both the Centaur and Qatar, 169 Lykhoviy, Ukrayina Moloda (Kiev), 2/27/96, pp. 1, the Pegasus are members of GEC-Marconi’s 3; in FBIS-SOV-96-042, 2/27/96 (6093). United Arab Emirates, 175 precision guided munitions family. Douglas Barrie, Flight International, 2/21/96-2/27/ 2/96 96, p. 17 (6264). John D. Morrocco, Aviation Week U.S. officials said Ukraine will probably be & Space Technology, 3/4/96, pp. 42-43 (6264). Fi- UNITED NATIONS accepted into the MTCR in 1996 if Kiev nancial Times, 4/3/96, p. 9 (6264). John D. Morrocco, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 4/1/ improves its export control regime. Talks 96, pp. 52-54 (6264). between the U.S. and Ukraine are currently underway regarding the latter’s membership UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WITH UNITED NATIONS WITH: in the regime. UNITED STATES Richard C. Barnard, Defense News, 2/19/96-2/25/ Russia, 172 96, p. 2 (6173). 2/13/6-2/14/96 6/4/96 During a conference of the Association of U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry and the U.S. Army, Frank Besson, director of UNITED STATES Ukrainian Minister of Defense Valeriy security assistance in the office of the U.S. Shmarov visited a former missile silo in Army’s deputy chief of staff for logistics, said Pervomaysk, which was destroyed earlier in that UAE officials would like to purchase 1996 and is now being converted for civil- the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS, ian uses. Perry and Shmarov signed an agree- system from the U.S. PAC-3 is designed to ment to provide Ukraine with an additional have an anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) 2/28/96 $29.7 million to finance the clean-up of capability and is still under development. Republican Representative Floyd D. Spence former silos and the dismantlement of mis- Besson said the PAC-2 might be offered in- asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) siles, among other items. The base at stead, because the U.S. may not be prepared to review National Intelligence Estimate 95- Pervomaysk was once home to over 80 un- to export the more advanced PAC-3 technol- 19 (NIE 95-19), titled Emerging Missile derground missile silos that contained SS- ogy. Threats to North America During the Next 19 ICBMs targeted against the U.S. Philip Finnegan and Frank Olivieri, Defense News, 15 Years. In 11/95, NIE 95-19 concluded that Unian (Kiev), 6/4/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-108, 6/4/96 2/19/96-2/25/96, pp. 1, 29 (6228). no new long-range missile systems will (6210). Jane Perlez, New York Times, 6/5/96, p. A6 threaten the continental U.S. for at least an- (6210). Interfax (Moscow), 6/1/96; in FBIS-TAC- 2/14/96 96-007, 6/1/96 (6210). other 15 years. Although Spence’s request Ernest Jackson, Raytheon’s director of in- did not refer to any “politicization” of the ternational programs, said his company and issue, critics of the NIE, such as Republican the U.S. Army are assessing what Patriot Representative Curt Weldon from Pennsyl- UNITED ARAB EMIRATES ATBM technology can be exported to the vania, have claimed that it was “politicized” UAE and at what price. by the Clinton administration in support of Philip Finnegan and Frank Olivieri, Defense News, 2/19/96-2/25/96, pp. 1, 29 (6228). its opposition to the deployment of a national missile defense, a concept supported by UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WITH: many Republicans. France and United Kingdom, 157 Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 3/26/96, p. A4 (6122). UNITED KINGDOM Arms Control Today, 3/96, pp. 29-30 (6122). Jenni- Russia, 172 fer Heronema, Space News, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p. 6 Russia and United States, 172 (6122). Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 5/3/96, p. A10 (6122).

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WITH UNITED KINGDOM WITH: 3/96 UNITED KINGDOM Brazil and France, 151 CIA Director John Deutch suggested the cre- ation of a “B-team” of experts—led by 4/1/96* France and Israel, 155 France and Italy, 155 former CIA Director R. James Woolsey—to The U.K.’s GEC-Marconi offered its Cen- review the conclusions of NIE 95-19, on taur stand-off missile to the UAE. GEC- France and Kuwait, 156 France and United Arab Emirates, 157 condition that the GAO review be canceled. Marconi believes that if it wins the Spence subsequently rejected the “B-team” Indonesia, 160 competition to fulfill the U.K.’s convention- idea in favor of an amendment to the defense ally armed stand-off missile (CASOM) re- Iraq, 164 bill. quirement with its the Pegasus missile, the Israel, 165 Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 3/26/96, p. A4 (6122). UAE will select Centaur because of its simi- Arms Control Today, 3/96, pp. 29-30 (6122). Jenni-

The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 175 Missile Developments

fer Heronema, Space News, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p. 6 Germany and Ukraine, 157 (6122). Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 5/3/96, p. A10 (6122). India and Pakistan, 159 India and Russia, 160 5/1/96 Israel, 165 The U.S. House of Representatives’ National Japan, 167 Security Committee approved an amendment Kuwait, 167 to the FY 1997 defense bill, which, if en- North Korea, 168 acted, would force CIA Director John M. Pakistan, 169 Deutch to establish a private group of ex- Russia, 172 perts to review National Intelligence Esti- South Korea, 173 mate (NIE) 95-19. The group of Ukraine, 174 non-governmental specialists would be re- quired to deliver its findings within three United Arab Emirates, 175 months. Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 3/26/96, p. A4 (6122). Arms Control Today, 3/96, pp. 29-30 (6122). Jenni- fer Heronema, Space News, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p. 6 VENEZUALA (6122). Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 5/3/96, p. A10 (6122).

5/31/96 VENEZUALA WITH: Lt. General Malcolm O’Neill, retiring direc- Colombia, 154 tor of the Pentagon’s Ballistic Missile De- fense Organization said that he was skeptical of the prediction that “no rogue nation will have the capability to threaten the U.S. with VIETNAM missiles before 2010.” The U.S. intelligence community is conducting a “worst case sce- nario” assessment at O’Neill’s request, in order to give a “date plus or minus some- VIETNAM WITH: thing” in which a “rogue nation” might be Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, able to attack the U.S. O’Neill wants the as- sessment to demonstrate that the intelligence Singapore, South Africa, and community is thinking the issue through and Taiwan, 160 they understand “something could cause it to be earlier and something could cause it to be later.” According to O’Neill, NIE-95-19 did not account for “wildcards,” such as YUGOSLAVIA smuggling or gaps in U.S. technology, includ- ing the surveillance of underground facili- ties. Jane’s Defence Weekly, 6/5/96, p. 4 (6200). Joseph YUGOSLAVIA WITH: Anselmo, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 6/3/ Russia, 172 96, p. 32 (6275).

UNITED STATES WITH: Argentina, 149 Australia, Brazil, and Russia, 149 Australia and Israel, 150 Bahrain, 150 Brazil, 151 Brunei, 152 China, 154 France, Germany, and Italy, 155

176 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996