Missile Developments BALLISTIC, CRUISE MISSILE, AND MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS: TRADE AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS, FEBRUARY-JUNE 1996 CONTENTS OVERVIEW, 147 BRAZIL CZECH REPUBLIC United Arab Emirates and Internal Developments, 151 with: United Kingdom, 157 AFGHANISTAN with: Belarus, Hungary, and with: GERMANY Argentina, 149 Russia, 151 India, 149 with: Australia, Russia, and United Belarus, Poland, and France, Italy, and United ARGENTINA States, 149 Russia, 151 States, 155 Internal Developments, 149 France, 151 EGYPT Ukraine and United with: France and United with: States, 157 Brazil, 149 Kingdom, 151 North Korea, 154 United States, 149 United States, 151 HUNGARY Russia, 154 with: AUSTRALIA BRUNEI ETHIOPIA Austria, India, Moldova, with: with: Internal Developments, 154 Romania, and Brazil, Russia, and United United States, 152 Switzerland, 150 States, 149 FINLAND BULGARIA Belarus, Czech Republic, and Israel and United States, 150 with: with: Russia, 151 Taiwan, 150 Russia, 155 Russia, 152 Israel and Sweden, 157 Thailand, 150 FRANCE CHINA INDIA AUSTRIA with: Internal Developments, 152 Internal Developments, 157 with: Brazil, 151 with: with: Hungary, India, Moldova, Brazil and United Belarus, 150 Afghanistan, 149 Romania, and Kingdom, 151 Iran and North Korea, 153 Austria, Hungary, Moldova, Switzerland, 150 Germany, Italy, and United Israel, 153 Romania, and States, 155 BAHRAIN Russia, 153 Switzerland, 150 Iran and Qatar, 155 with: Taiwan, 153 Pakistan and Russia, 159 Israel and United United States, 150 Ukraine, 153 Pakistan and United Kingdom, 155 United States, 154 States, 159 Italy and United BELARUS Russia, 159 COLOMBIA Kingdom, 155 Internal Developments, 150 Russia and United States, 160 with: Kuwait, 155 with: Ukraine, 160 China, 150 Venezuela, 154 Kuwait and United Czech Republic, Hungary, Kingdom, 156 INDONESIA COMMONWEALTH OF and Russia, 151 Pakistan, 156 with: INDEPENDENT STATES Czech Republic, Poland, and Russia, 156 Malaysia, Philippines, Internal Developments, 154 Russia, 151 Saudi Arabia, 156 Singapore, South Africa, Russia, 151 South Korea, 157 Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 145 Missile Developments Russia, 160 MALAYSIA RUSSIA SOUTH KOREA United Kingdom, 160 Internal Developments, 168 Internal Developments, 169 Internal Developments, 173 with: with: with: IRAN Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, Brazil, and United France, 157 Internal Developments, 161 Singapore, South Africa, States, 149 United States, 173 with: Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 Belarus, 151 China and North Korea, 153 SWEDEN Belarus, Czech Republic, and France and Qatar, 155 MOLDOVA with: Hungary, 151 Japan, 162 with: Hungary and Israel, 157 Belarus, Czech Republic, and Ukraine, 162 Austria, Hungary, India, Poland, 151 SWITZERLAND Romania, and IRAQ Bulgaria, 152 with: Switzerland, 150 Internal Developments, 162 China, 153 Austria, Hungary, India, with: NETHERLANDS Egypt, 154 Moldova, and Romania, 150 Russia and United States, 164 with: Finland, 155 Israel, 165 United Kingdom, 164 Libya, 167 France, 156 India, 159 TAIWAN ISRAEL NORTH KOREA India and Pakistan, 159 Internal Developments, 174 Internal Developments, 164 Internal Developments, 168 India and United States, 160 with: with: with: Indonesia, 160 Australia, 150 Australia and United China and Iran, 153 Iraq and United States, 164 China, 153 States, 150 Egypt, 154 Kuwait, 167 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- China, 153 Pakistan and Taiwan, 168 South Africa, 171 pines, South Africa, Taiwan, France and United United States, 168 Ukraine, 171 and Vietnam, 160 Kingdom, 155 PAKISTAN Ukraine and United THAILAND Hungary and Sweden, 157 Internal Developments, 168 States, 172 Internal Developments, 174 Singapore, 164 with: United Arab Emirates, 172 with: Switzerland, 165 France, 156 United Arab Emirates and Australia, 150 Turkey, 165 India and Russia, 159 United States, 172 United Kingdom, 165 TURKEY India and United States, 159 United Nations, 172 United States, 165 Internal Developments, 174 North Korea and Taiwan, 168 United States, 172 with: ITALY South Africa, 169 Yugoslavia, 172 Israel, 165 with: Ukraine, 169 SAUDI ARABIA France and United United States, 169 with: UKRAINE Kingdom, 155 with: PHILIPPINES France, 156 France, Germany, and United China, 153 Internal Developments, 169 States, 146 SINGAPORE Germany and United with: with: States, 157 JAPAN Indonesia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- India, 160 with: Singapore, South Africa, pines, South Africa, Taiwan, Iran, 162 Iran, 162 Taiwan, and Vietnam, 160 and Vietnam, 160 Libya, 167 United States, 167 POLAND Israel, 164 Pakistan, 169 KUWAIT with: SOUTH AFRICA Russia, 171 with: Belarus, Czech Republic, and Internal Developments, 173 Russia and United States, 172 France, 155 Russia, 151 with: United States, 174 France and United QATAR Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Kingdom, 156 with: pines, Singapore, Taiwan, with: Russia, 167 France and Iran, 155 and Vietnam, 160 France and United United States, 167 United Kingdom, 169 Pakistan, 169 Kingdom, 157 LIBYA Russia, 171 Russia, 172 ROMANIA with: Russia and United States, 172 with: Netherlands, 167 United Kingdom, 175 Austria, Hungary, India, Ukraine, 167 United States, 175 Moldova, and United States, 168 Switzerland, 169 146 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Missile Developments UNITED KINGDOM YUGOSLAVIA with: with: Brazil and France, 151 Russia, 172 OVERVIEW France and Israel, 155 France and Italy, 155 Iraq’s continued evasion of United Nations Security Coun- France and Kuwait, 156 France and United Arab cil Resolution 687 and China’s missile exercises near Tai- Emirates, 157 wan featured prominently between February and June 1996. Indonesia, 160 UNSCOM (U.N. Special Commission in Iraq) Chief Rolf Iraq, 164 Ekeus revealed that Baghdad was concealing between six and Israel, 165 16 Scud missiles on trucks which traveled around the coun- Qatar, 169 try between different military installations. Also, missile in- United Arab Emirates, 175 spectors were denied access to several suspected weapon sites UNITED NATIONS in Iraq. According to Ekeus, some of the institutions ac- with: cused of hiding Iraq’s proscribed weapons-related materials Russia, 172 are also responsible for Saddam Hussein’s security, and this UNITED STATES explains why Baghdad was unwilling to give the commission Internal Developments, 175 access to certain sites. However, in late June, Iraq agreed to with: give UNSCOM “immediate, complete and unconditional Argentina, 149 access” to all of its suspected weapons sites and provided the Australia, Brazil, and commission with what it described as “final documents” on Russia, 149 its missile and chemical and biological weapon programs. Australia and Israel, 150 Ekeus said that although Baghdad continued to hide weap- Bahrain, 150 ons, components, and documentation, he was confident the Brazil, 151 new agreement would work. In a related development, the Brunei, 152 U.S. State Department informed Congress there was “no in- China, 154 France, Germany, and dication” that the Russian government had “sanctioned” the Italy, 155 transfer of missile gyroscopes and accelerometers to Iraq in Germany and Ukraine, 157 1995. A U.S. government investigation determined that the India and Pakistan, 159 Russian-made components had been smuggled out of the India and Russia, 160 country. If the investigation had implicated the Russian gov- Israel, 165 ernment, Moscow’s commitment to fulfill its obligations as a Japan, 167 new member of the Missile Technology Control Regime Kuwait, 167 (MTCR) would have been cast into serious doubt. North Korea, 168 Pakistan, 169 In Asia, China’s Second Artillery Corps test-launched four Russia, 172 600 km-range, nuclear-capable Dong Feng-15 (DF-15, M-9) South Korea, 173 ballistic missiles. Their trajectories took them from the main- Ukraine, 174 land to the waters off Taiwan’s two busiest ports, Keelung United Arab Emirates, 175 and Kaohsiung. The tests were perceived in Taipei as delib- VENEZUALA erate intimidation during the three-week run-up to Taiwan’s with: first direct presidential election. However, polls taken in Colombia, 154 Taiwan just before the election showed that the test launches served only to bolster support for the elections among the VIETNAM with: Taiwanese electorate. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- Theater missile defense (TMD) efforts progressed in Is- pines, Singapore, South rael with the second successful test flight of an Arrow-2 anti- Africa, and Taiwan, 160 tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) from the Palmahim launch site near Tel Aviv. The program is funded jointly by the United States and Israel. Project heads said the first operational The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 147 Missile Developments Arrow system should be deployed by the end of 1998 and ing Missile Threats to North America During the Next 15 that Israel will have a “significant missile defense capabil- Years, predicted that “no rogue nation will have the capabil- ity” by the end of the century. A U.S.-Israeli agreement on ity to threaten the U.S. with missiles before 2010.” Retiring TMD will bolster Israel’s missile defenses. According to director of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Organization U.S. officials, the agreement focuses on supplying Israel Lt. Gen. Malcolm O’Neill questioned this prediction. He ar- with better early-warning information. Also, Washington gued that the NIE did not account for “wildcards” such as has pledged to increase financial support for the U.S.-Is- smuggling or gaps in U.S. capability, including the technol-