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H-Diplo/ISSF Forum on “What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons.”

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H-Diplo/ISSF Forum on “What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons.” H-Diplo H-Diplo/ISSF Forum on “What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons.” Discussion published by George Fujii on Sunday, June 15, 2014 H-Diplo | ISSF Forum, No. 2 (2014)- “What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons.” http://issforum.org H-Diplo/ISSF Editors: James McAllister and Diane Labrosse H-Diplo/ISSF Web and Production Editor: George Fujii Commissioned for H-Diplo/ISSF by James McAllister Introduction by Scott D. Sagan Published by H-Diplo/ISSF on 15 June 2014 URL: http://issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Forum-2.pdf Contents “Two Renaissances in Nuclear Security Studies,” Introduction by Scott D. Sagan, Stanford University 2 “What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons: A Review Essay,” by Francis J. Gavin, Frank Stanton Chair in Nuclear Security Policy Studies, MIT. 11 Response: “The Case for Using Statistics to Study Nuclear Security,” by Matthew Fuhrmann, Texas A&M University, Matthew Kroenig, Georgetown University, and Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia 37 Response: “Nuclear Weapons Are (Still) Poor Instruments of Blackmail: A Reply to Francis J. Gavin’s Critique” by Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia and Matthew Fuhrmann, Texas A&M University 55 “A Superior Theory of Superiority,” Response by Matthew Kroenig, Georgetown University. 63 “Archives and the Study of Nuclear Politics” by Hal Brands, Duke University. 66 “An Apology for Numbers in the Study of National Security . if an apology is really necessary” by Erik Gartzke, University of California, San Diego. 77 “The Use and Abuse of Large-n Methods in Nuclear Studies” An Essay by Vipin Narang, MIT. 91 Citation: George Fujii. H-Diplo/ISSF Forum on “What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons.”. H-Diplo. 06-15-2014. https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/31776/h-diploissf-forum-%E2%80%9Cwhat-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-nuclea r Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License. 1 H-Diplo © 2014 H-Net: Humanities and Social Sciences Online [This forum may be viewed at http://issforum.org/forums/2-what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-nuclear-weapons in its entirety. Due to technical difficulties, we are unable to send along the entire forum via e-mail at this time. The introduction alone follows below]. “Two Renaissances in Nuclear Security Studies,” Introduction by Scott D. Sagan, Stanford University “Quality is better than quantity, especially in large numbers.” Anon. Over the past decade, two intellectual renaissances have emerged in the field of nuclear security studies. The first is in political science, where exciting new research has been published about such important subjects as the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation, the linkages between the growth of civilian nuclear power and the spread of nuclear weapons, deterrence and compellence theory and practice, and the consequences of new states acquiring atomic arsenals. A second renaissance is occurring in history, as new archives have opened up and scholars are studying such important subjects as Cold War crises, the evolution of international institutions such as the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the history of medium powers and smaller states that decided to pursue or decided to stop pursing nuclear weapons. These two scholarly renaissances, however, have largely developed in completely separate spheres, or on parallel tracks at best, with little interchange between historians and political scientists. This is deeply unfortunate, for creative multidisciplinary research can significantly improve our understanding of complex technical, historical, and political phenomena such as the causes and consequences nuclear weapons proliferation. During the golden age of nuclear strategy in the 1950s and 1960s, for example, when many of our theories about nuclear weapons were first developed, the breadth and diversity of scholars engaged in the field was stunning. Political scientist Bernard Brodie, economist Thomas Schelling, mathematician Albert Wohlstetter, physicist Herman Kahn, and historian Roberta Wohlstetter each produced seminal contributions about nuclear weapons and strategic stability, the danger of surprise attacks, and the possibility of arms control that created both [1] important public policy debates in Washington and personal debates in the hallways of RAND. These debates on key security issues both significantly improved the quality each individual’s scholarship and the collective policy relevance of academic research for the U.S. government. In contrast, today, the vigorous debates and intellectual cross-fertilization that enhanced earlier nuclear scholarship are missing. Both political scientists and historians too often publish only in their own disciplinary journals, attend only their own professional conferences, care only about policy implications of their narrow findings, and only engage in debates with members of their own academic tribes. Robert Jervis, James McAllister, and Francis Gavin are therefore to be thanked for putting together this H-Diplo forum and for encouraging dialogue across the disciplinary divide. Citation: George Fujii. H-Diplo/ISSF Forum on “What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons.”. H-Diplo. 06-15-2014. https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/31776/h-diploissf-forum-%E2%80%9Cwhat-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-nuclea r Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License. 2 H-Diplo This H-Diplo forum is a most welcome exchange of views about the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to nuclear scholarship. My introduction to the forum has three sections. First, I will briefly describe some of the trends I see emerging in the new political science and history scholarship on the effects of nuclear weapons on international politics. Second, I will briefly outline the major points made by the contributors to this lively forum. Third, I will discuss how historians and political scientists can interact and contribute to, rather than simply critique, each other’s work more effectively. In the decades after the end of the Cold War, many political science students and scholars turned their attention to studying civil wars, insurgency, and terrorism, with far less research conducted on nuclear issues. Over the past decade, however – sparked in part by real-world policy concerns about North Korea, Iran, nuclear terrorism, and global disarmament – much new research has been published on nuclear weapons issues. This H-Diplo Forum focuses mostly on new nuclear security [2] literature using large-N statistical methods, but the renaissance in political science work on nuclear issues is much broader in focus and more diverse in terms of methodology than this admittedly important emerging strand of the literature. New nuclear weapons research in political science includes important case-study work examining the domestic political and psychological determinants [3] of proliferation, normative and constructivist analyses of states’ and individuals’ nuclear identity and [4] [5] ethical taboos, new game theoretic models of proliferation and preventive war decisions, and the [6] use of public opinion survey experiments. (Some of the contributions to this H-Diplo forum label the large-N statistical work as “the quantitative approach” to nuclear studies, but this is misleading since other commonly used methods – such as game theory and survey experiments – are also clearly quantitative in nature.) Some nuclear scholars – Vipin Narang and Matthew Kroenig, for example – use multiple methods, combining detailed case studies with quantitative tests to determine both [7] broad correlations between variables and the importance of causal mechanisms. The renaissance in nuclear security studies among historians also displays considerable diversity regarding methods and approach. Important books by Marc Trachtenberg and Francis Gavin, for example, primarily use American archives to illuminate the evolution of U.S. nuclear strategy and [8] high-level international diplomacy during the Cold War. Other scholars have focused on social factors and domestic politics to examine nuclear decision making in different countries, such as Matthew Jones’ book about race and nuclear weapons threats in Asia, Sasha Polakow-Suransky’s work on Israeli-South African nuclear cooperation, and Tsuyoshi Hasegawa and his collaborators’ [9] work on the influence of national perceptions and misperceptions on Cold War crises. Some scholars – Timothy Naftali and Aleksandr Fursenko are a prominent example – formed effective partnerships [10] to conduct joint research in Soviet and American archives. A broad and strong group of diplomatic and international historians have conducted multi-archival research to explore the creation of international treaties such the NPT and international disputes over the spread of civilian nuclear [11] power technology. Matthew Connelly creatively organized a large consortium of younger scholars to pool intellectual perspectives and archival data to understand the history of U.S. intelligence [12] estimates regarding nuclear weapons use and proliferation. In a related development, historians, anthropologists, and sociologists using approaches developed in science, technology, and society (STS) studies have produced stunningly innovative work on missile accuracy, the Indian nuclear power and weapons programs,
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