American Hegemony and the Politics of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime
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AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND THE POLITICS OF THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION REGIME A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Rebecca Davis Gibbons, M.A. Washington, DC April 15, 2016 Copyright 2016 by Rebecca Davis Gibbons All Rights Reserved ii AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND THE POLITICS OF THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION REGIME Rebecca Davis Gibbons, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Keir A. Lieber, Ph.D. ABSTRACT Though nearly all states in the international system are signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the same cannot be said of the more recent nonproliferation agreements designed to advance the goals of the NPT. Together these treaties and agreements make up the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The project asks: what explains variation in NPT members’ commitment to the nuclear nonproliferation regime? Contrary to recent research that largely points to domestic political variables, such as regime type, to explain institutional commitment, the project theorizes that nuclear nonproliferation regime is best conceptualized as a hegemonic order in which variation in states’ favorability toward U.S. global leadership explains variation in commitment to the nuclear nonproliferation regime. This research employs quantitative analysis drawn from an original dataset of nuclear nonproliferation commitment indicators as well as detailed case studies of nonproliferation decision-making in Japan, Egypt, and Indonesia drawn from over 35 elite interviews and archival research. Empirical findings indicate support for the proposed theory. The findings suggest this particular regime may be unsustainable without a hegemonic backer, leading to questions about the future of nuclear proliferation amidst the projected relative decline of U.S. economic power. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am grateful to many individuals and organizations for supporting me through this research project. The writing is solitary but the process is not. My dissertation committee members Keir Lieber, Matthew Kroenig, Daniel Nexon, and Elizabeth Stanley provided savvy advice about the research and writing process, thoughtful comments on my drafts, and much needed guidance when I was stuck. I have benefitted from the wisdom of additional Georgetown University professors including Lise Howard, Elizabeth Arsenault, Erik Voeten, and Michael Bailey over the course of this project. Professors Daryl Press and Alexander Montgomery provided helpful feedback in the early stages of the project. Before I became a doctoral student in Georgetown’s Government Department, I completed Georgetown’s Security Studies M.A. program. Working with and learning from Kai-Henrik Barth, Elizabeth Stanley, and David Edelstein during this course of study inspired me to seek a Ph.D. Dr. Barth, in particular, is the reason I study nuclear issues. Working with him was truly a “critical juncture” in my life. I am thankful for the financial support provided by Georgetown University’s Government Department and the Frank Stanton Foundation. The year I spent at the RAND Corporation as a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, under the mentorship of Lynn Davis, was the most productive of my graduate career. The other Stanton Fellows at RAND, Chris Clary and Edward Geist, provided valuable feedback on this project. The past decade has been a beneficial time to study nuclear matters and my thinking has been aided through participation in Public Policy and Nuclear Threat’s Nuclear Boot Camp at the University of California, San Diego; the Nuclear Studies Research Initiative; and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Project on Nuclear Issues. Through these programs I have received helpful feedback from Jeff Kaplow, Jane Vaynman, Paul Avey, Christine Leah, and Robert Brown. I am fortunate to have shared the ups and downs of graduate school with so many inspiring and supportive colleagues. My original IR cohort, Rafi Cohen, Gabe Scheinmann, Andrew Imbrie, and Rafi Frankel provided lively classroom interactions, constant (mostly friendly) disagreements, and invaluable collaboration for comps studying. In addition, Devin Finn, Megan Stewart, Anjali Dayal, Jennifer Dresden, Meghan McConaughey, Beth Mercurio, Paul Musgrave, Jooeun Kim, Haillie Lee, Yu-Ming Liou, Fouad Pervez, Michael Weintraub, Adam Mount, Jacob Lupfer, Paula Ganga, Dani Nedal, and Maddie Schramm have been helpful and supportive colleagues. I am lucky to consider them friends. Megan Stewart, in particular, has been a constant source of moral support and astute feedback. iv During the course of my study I was fortunate to be part of an SAIC team supporting the Air Force’s Strategic Stability and Countering WMD office. My colleagues, both military and civilian, have been a sounding board for ideas and a crucial source of feedback. I am especially grateful for advice and moral support from Justin Anderson, Josh Pollack, and Lew Dunn. I owe a great debt to over thirty-five current and former officials who were willing to be interviewed for this project. Many were extremely generous with their time and expertise. In particular, I want to extend my gratitude to Thomas Graham Jr., Susan Burk, Dean Rust, John Carlson, and Norman Wulf. Finally, I am most thankful for the love and support of my family. My parents have always placed a strong value on my education and have supported me all along the way. Their help has been invaluable and I will always be grateful to them. My mom even waded through theory and jargon to provide proofreading on my final drafts. My two brothers, Jeff and Chris, are always a source of humor and support. My in-laws have been cheerleaders throughout. My large extended family, though they asked me many times when I would “be finished with school,” were willing to listen to me talk about nuclear nonproliferation, and that is no small thing. My grandfather, Joseph Klenk, has read most of my conference papers, and has always provided comments. I will always remember his enthusiasm for my work. And then there is my husband, Ryan, and our two daughters, Sydney and Josephina. I began the PhD program a week before getting married. I brought Ken Waltz to read by the pool on our honeymoon (in hindsight, this was probably not the best idea). We have “vacationed” to conference locations. He has sat through many dinners that revolved around academic conversations and departmental goings-on. In short, Ryan has been there every step of the way, through difficult course work, endless papers (many of which he proofread), comprehensive exams, conferences and research trips, and too many conversations about international relations theory. His patience for this process has been unwavering and for that I am deeply grateful. My children have had a tired, and often distracted mother as I worked to complete this project. They provide me motivation and inspiration on a daily basis and I hope that they also seek out hard challenges and find the personal satisfaction in completing them. It is to Ryan, Sydney, and Josephina that I dedicate this effort. Rebecca Davis Gibbons Washington DC April 2016 v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter One: Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime ....................................................................................... 5 The Importance of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime .......................................................... 7 Plan for the Dissertation............................................................................................................ 10 Chapter Two: Theories of Regime Commitment ...............................................................................13 Conceptualizing Commitment to the Regime ........................................................................... 13 A Theory of Regime Commitment ........................................................................................... 17 Alternative Theories of Regime Commitment .......................................................................... 32 Summary of Theoretical Expectations ...................................................................................... 46 Research Design and Case Selection ........................................................................................ 48 Chapter Three: U.S. Promotion of Nuclear Nonproliferation ............................................................52 Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry S. Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower ..................................... 52 John F. Kennedy ....................................................................................................................... 56 Lyndon B. Johnson ................................................................................................................... 58 Richard Nixon ........................................................................................................................... 66 Gerald Ford ............................................................................................................................... 78 Jimmy Carter ............................................................................................................................. 82 Ronald Reagan .........................................................................................................................