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Strategic Studies Quarterly Fall 2018 Strategic Studies Quarterly Quarterly Strategic Studies FALL 2018 Volume 12, No. 3 Securing the Nation One Partnership at a Time Gen Joseph L. Lengyel, USAF FEATURE ARTICLE Confidence Building Measures for the Cyber Domain Erica D. Borghard Shawn W. Lonergan FALL 2018 FALL The Case for the US ICBM Force Matthew Kroenig Russian Information Warfare: Implications for Deterrence Theory Media Ajir Bethany Vailliant The Strategic Promise of Offensive Cyber Operations Max Smeets Soft Power in China’s Security Strategy LTC Mikail Kalimuddin, SAF David A. Anderson 00a-Outside Cover 2018-03.indd 1 8/1/2018 10:52:24 AM Strategic Studies Mission Statement Quarterly Strategic Studies Quarterly (SSQ ) is the strategic journal of the United SSQ States Air Force, fostering intellectual enrichment for national and inter- Chief of Staff, US Air Force national security professionals. SSQ provides a forum for critically Gen David L. Goldfein, USAF examining, informing, and debating national and international security matters. Contributions to SSQ will explore strategic issues of current and Commander, Air Education and Training Command continuing interest to the US Air Force, the larger defense community, Lt Gen Steven L. Kwast, USAF and our international partners. Commander and President, Air University Lt Gen Anthony J. Cotton, USAF Disclaimer Commander, LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education The views and opinions expressed or implied in SSQ are those of the authors and should not be construed as carrying the official sanction of Maj Gen Michael D. Rothstein, USAF the US Air Force, the Department of Defense, Air Education and Training Director, Air University Press Command, Air University, or other agencies or departments of the US Dr. Ernest Allan Rockwell government. Editorial Staff Comments and Contact Col W. Michael Guillot, USAF, Retired, Editor Send your comments, suggestions, or address change to: Donna Budjenska, Content Editor [email protected]. Nedra O. Looney, Prepress Production Coordinator Join the debate and like us on Facebook.com/AirUnivPress. Daniel M. Armstrong, Illustrator Kevin V. Frey, Webmaster Follow us on Twitter.com/AirUnivPress. Advisors Article Submission Gen Michael P. C. Carns, USAF, Retired The SSQ considers scholarly articles between 5,000 and 15,000 words from James W. Forsyth Jr., PhD US and international authors. Please send your submission in Microsoft Christina Goulter, PhD Word format via e-mail to: [email protected] Robert P. Haffa, PhD Jay P. Kesan, PhD Strategic Studies Quarterly (SSQ) Charlotte Ku, PhD 600 Chennault Circle, Building 1405, Room 143 Benjamin S. Lambeth, PhD Maxwell AFB, AL 36112–6026 Martin C. Libicki, PhD Tel (334) 953–7311 Allan R. Millett, PhD Strategic Studies Quarterly online: http://www.airuniversity.af.mil/ssq/ Contributing Editors Free Electronic Subscription Stephen D. Chiabotti, PhD, School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Mark J. Conversino, PhD, School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Strategic Studies Quarterly (SSQ) (ISSN 1936-1815) is published quarterly by Air Kelly A. Grieco, PhD, Air Command and Staff College University Press, Maxwell AFB, AL. Articles in SSQ may be reproduced free of Michael R. Kraig, PhD, Air Command and Staff College charge. Notify editor and include a standard source credit line on each reprint. Dawn C. Murphy, PhD, Air War College David D. Palkki, PhD, Air War College Nicholas M. Sambaluk, PhD, Air Command and Staff College 00b1-Inside Cover 2018-03.indd 1 8/7/2018 2:51:17 PM Strategic Studies Quarterly An Air Force–Sponsored Strategic Forum on National and International Security FALL 2018 VOLUME 12, NO. 3 Policy Forum Securing the Nation One Partnership at a Time ......................... 3 Gen Joseph L. Lengyel, USAF Feature Article Confidence Building Measures for the Cyber Domain ................. 10 Erica D. Borghard Shawn W. Lonergan Perspectives The Case for the US ICBM Force .............................................. 50 Matthew Kroenig Russian Information Warfare: Implications for Deterrence Theory ..................................................................... 70 Media Ajir Bethany Vailliant The Strategic Promise of Offensive Cyber Operations ................... 90 Max Smeets Soft Power in China’s Security Strategy ....................................... 114 LTC Mikail Kalimuddin, SAF David A. Anderson Book Reviews The China Questions: Critical Insights into a Rising Power ....... 142 By: Jennifer Rudolph and Michael Szonyi Reviewed by: Capt Sean E. Thompson, USAF An Untaken Road: Strategy, Technology, and the Hidden History of America’s Mobile ICBMs .................................................... 143 By: Steven A. Pomeroy Reviewed by: Daniel Schwabe Understanding Cyber Conflict: 14 Analogies ................................ 145 By: George Perkovich and Ariel E. Levite Reviewed by: Lt Col Mark Peters, USAF Russia’s Dead End: An Insider’s Testimony .................................. 147 By: Andrei A. Kovalev Reviewed by: Lt Col Mark Peters, USAF Securing the Nation One Partnership at a Time America’s alliances and partnerships around the globe give the United States an unmatched advantage over our competitors. Maintaining and nurturing those relationships does not happen overnight but is a product of an enduring effort to build trust and confidence between nations. Twenty eighteen marks the 25th anniversary of the National Guard’s State Partnership Program (SPP), and it is worth reflecting on the im- portant contributions the SPP makes in enabling the US and its allies and partners to provide security and stability around the world. The SPP is an innovative and cost-effective security cooperation pro- gram that connects the National Guard with the militaries of partner nations around the globe. Guard units conduct military-to-military en- gagements with partner nations in support of defense security goals and also leverage societal relationships to build personal bonds and enduring trust. The SPP is not designed to make other militaries self-sustaining. Rather, the goal of the SPP is developing and maintaining important security relationships between the United States and other nations sharing a long-term view of common interests. As outlined in the National Defense Strategy (NDS), strengthening and evolving our alliances and partnerships is a secretary of defense pri- ority as we look to meet shared challenges and potential threats. The National Guard is playing an integral role in this effort. At the request of US ambassadors in foreign countries, the National Guard forges its unique SPP relationships by integrating its activities with the strategic goals of combatant commands and chiefs of US missions. With the re- cent announcement of the partnership between Brazil and New York, the SPP currently partners with 81 nations and is a scalable and adaptable program preserving critical partnerships as well as developing new ones with nations that are ready to partner for a more secure future. A Volatile Security Environment Geopolitical changes in the last decade have brought greater concern over strategic competition. The United States is still the most capable military in the world, but our adversaries seek gaps and seams to exploit weaknesses, some through non-kinetic means, including the so-called Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Fall 2018 3 Joseph L. Lengyel gray zones of warfare. We are seeing strategies that use all instruments of national power to compete within every aspect of the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic spheres. China is now a dominant player in the global economy, which has allowed it to increase spending for the People’s Liberation Army and assert territorial claims in the South China Sea. Russia seeks to revise the international order and change longstanding universal norms through force and unconventional means that combine military action, coercive economic tools, diplomacy, and disinformation campaigns. Iran and its Revolutionary Guard Corps are attempting to dominate the Middle East through support of rogue organizations and their own military operations. Despite recent develop- ments, security on the Korean Peninsula remains an international con- cern. Nonstate actors throughout the world with more sophisticated capabilities present new dangers abroad and in the homeland. All of these threats differ in geography and scale, making unilateral action a risky proposition that would stretch the capabilities of the US and its military. Without allies and partners, these threats become more dif- ficult to deal with. In a competitive world with diverse threats, the US must attract and work with allies as a means of achieving a competitive advantage and decisive edge. Standing Together: The Value of Alliances Like-minded nations committed to collective defense provide a number of critical benefits—particularly strong economies so essential to security. When putting an economic value on our partnerships and alliances, the aggregate GDP for the US and our European and Pacific allies is $44.4 trillion, two and a half times the US GDP alone. Additionally, 13 of the top 20 militaries in the world are close US allies with a total of $1 trillion in defense spending and approximately four million personnel. Beyond direct military and economic power, allies offer additional per- spectives on courses of action, provide diplomatic and political support in international forums, contribute essential logistical and transit hubs, and, as a collective group,
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