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Meeting the Challenges of a New Nuclear Age Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Spring 2020 Meeting the Challenges of a New Nuclear Age Robert Legvold & Christopher F. Chyba, guest editors with Steven E. Miller Anya Loukianova Fink · Olga Oliker Li Bin · Brad Roberts · Linton F. Brooks Jon Brook Wolfsthal · James Cameron James M. Acton · Harald Müller Carmen Wunderlich · James Timbie Nina Tannenwald Estimated Nuclear Warhead Inventories, 2019 Russia 6,500 United Kingdom 215 North Pakistan France Korea United States 150 30 6,185 300 Israel 80 China 290 India 140 Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences “Meeting the Challenges of a New Nuclear Age” Volume 149, Number 2; Spring 2020 Robert Legvold & Christopher F. Chyba, Guest Editors Phyllis S. Bendell, Managing Editor and Director of Publications Peter Walton, Associate Editor Heather M. Struntz, Assistant Editor Committee on Studies and Publications John Mark Hansen, Chair; Rosina Bierbaum, Johanna Drucker, Gerald Early, Carol Gluck, Linda Greenhouse, John Hildebrand, Philip Khoury, Arthur Kleinman, Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot, Alan I. Leshner, Rose McDermott, Michael S. McPherson, Frances McCall Rosenbluth, Scott D. Sagan, Nancy C. Andrews (ex officio), David W. Oxtoby (ex officio), Diane P. Wood (ex officio) Inside front cover: Inventory numbers include deployed warheads, warheads in the military stockpile, and retired but intact warheads waiting for dismantlement. Source: Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, “Status of World Nuclear Forces,” Federation of American Scientists, May 2019 update. Contents 6 Introduction: The Search for Strategic Stability in a New Nuclear Era Robert Legvold & Christopher F. Chyba 17 A Nuclear World Transformed: The Rise of Multilateral Disorder Steven E. Miller 37 Russia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World: Guarantors of Sovereignty, Great Power Status & More Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker 56 The Revival of Nuclear Competition in an Altered Geopolitical Context: A Chinese Perspective Li Bin 69 On Adapting Nuclear Deterrence to Reduce Nuclear Risk Brad Roberts 84 The End of Arms Control? Linton F. Brooks 101 Why Arms Control? Jon Brook Wolfsthal 116 What History Can Teach James Cameron 133 Cyber Warfare & Inadvertent Escalation James M. Acton 150 New Technologies & Strategic Stability Christopher F. Chyba 171 Nuclear Disarmament without the Nuclear-Weapon States: The Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty Harald Müller & Carmen Wunderlich 190 A Way Forward James Timbie 205 Life beyond Arms Control: Moving toward a Global Regime of Nuclear Restraint & Responsibility Nina Tannenwald 222 Conclusion: Strategic Stability & Nuclear War Christopher F. Chyba & Robert Legvold Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Design for the hedge maze is by Johan Vredeman de Vries, from Hortorum viridariorumque elegantes & multiplices formae: ad architectonicae artis normam affabre delineatae (Cologne, 1615). Dædalus was founded in 1955 and established as a quarterly in 1958. The journal’s namesake was renowned in ancient Greece as an inventor, scientist, and unriddler of riddles. Its emblem, a maze seen from above, symbolizes the aspiration of its founders to “lift each of us above his cell in the labyrinth of learning in order that he may see the entire structure as if from above, where each separate part loses its comfortable separateness.” The American Academy of Arts & Sciences, like its journal, brings together distinguished individuals from every field of human endeavor. It was chartered in 1780 as a forum “to cultivate every art and science which may tend to advance the interest, honour, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, and virtuous people.” Now in its third century, the Academy, with its more than five thousand members, continues to provide intellectual leadership to meet the critical chal- lenges facing our world. Dædalus Spring 2020 Claims for missing issues will be honored free Issued as Volume 149, Number 2 of charge if made within three months of the publication date of the issue. Claims may be © 2020 by the American Academy submitted to [email protected]. Members of of Arts & Sciences. the American Academy please direct all ques- Editorial offices:Dædalus , American Academy of tions and claims to [email protected]. Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge MA Advertising and mailing-list inquiries may be 02138. Phone: 617 576 5085. Fax: 617 576 5088. addressed to Marketing Department, MIT Press Email: [email protected]. Journals, One Rogers Street, Cambridge MA Library of Congress Catalog No. 12-30299. 02142-1209. Phone: 617 253 2866. Fax: 617 253 1709. Email: [email protected]. Dædalus publishes by invitation only and assumes no responsibility for unsolicited manuscripts. To request permission to photocopy or repro- The views expressed are those of the author(s) of duce content from Dædalus, please complete the each essay, and not necessarily of the American online request form at http://www.mitpress Academy of Arts & Sciences. journals.org/rights_permission, or contact the Permissions Manager at MIT Press Journals, One Dædalus (ISSN 0011-5266; E-ISSN 1548-6192) is Rogers Street, Cambridge MA 02142-1209. Fax: published quarterly (winter, spring, summer, fall) 617 253 1709. Email: [email protected]. by The MIT Press, One Rogers Street, Cambridge ma 02142-1209, for the American Academy of Corporations and academic institutions with Arts & Sciences. An electronic full-text version valid photocopying and/or digital licenses with of Dædalus is available from The MIT Press. the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) may re­­ Sub scription and address changes should be ad­­ produce content from Dædalus under the terms dressed to MIT Press Journals Customer Service, of their license. Please go to www.copyright.com; One Rogers Street, Cambridge MA 02142-1209. CCC, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers MA 01923. Phone: 617 253 2889; U.S./Canada 800 207 8354. Printed in the United States by The Sheridan Fax: 617 577 1545. Email: [email protected]. Press, 450 Fame Avenue, Hanover PA 17331. Subscription rates: Electronic only for non- Newsstand distribution by TNG, 1955 Lake Park member individuals–$53; institutions–$175. Drive, Ste. 400, Smyrna GA 30080. Canadians add 5% GST. Print and electronic for nonmember individuals–$59; institutions– Postmaster: Send address changes to Dædalus, $219. Canadians add 5% GST. Outside the United One Rogers Street, Cambridge MA 02142-1209. States and Canada add $24 for postage and han- Periodicals postage paid at Boston MA and at dling. Prices subject to change without notice. additional mailing offices. Institutional subscriptions are on a volume-year The typeface is Cycles, designed by Sumner basis. All other subscriptions begin with the Stone at the Stone Type Foundry of Guinda CA. next available issue. Each size of Cycles has been sep arately designed Single issues: $15 for individuals; $38 for insti- in the tradition of metal types. tutions. Outside the United States and Canada, add $6 per issue for postage and handling. Prices subject to change without notice. Introduction: The Search for Strategic Stability in a New Nuclear Era Robert Legvold & Christopher F. Chyba he world has entered a new nuclear era whose characteristics and chal- lenges differ markedly from those of the Cold War. No longer dominat- T ed by only two nuclear superpowers (even if Russia and the United States still possess the lion’s share of nuclear weapons), its dangers are at least as great as those during the Cold War, and made more so by a general unawareness of the multiplying ways a nuclear war could begin. Five nuclear-armed states–China, India, and Pakistan, in addition to Russia and the United States with its allies Brit- ain and France–now set the contours of a multisided matrix, determine whether and when nuclear weapons will be used, and bear the responsibility for deciding whether and by what means the risk of nuclear war can be averted. Other states with nuclear weapons, such as North Korea, further complicate the picture by cre- ating additional pathways to nuclear conflict and generating U.S. responses that stir Russian and Chinese opposition and counteractions. Israel’s nuclear arsenal remains recessed and opaque. Beyond this changing geostrategic topography, ad- vances in weapons technology and the opening of new frontiers, such as cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence, make a shifting environment still more complex. The collapse of the Soviet Union and, with it, the fading fear of nuclear war led to a general disregard of nuclear issues in key relationships, with the exception of the security of nuclear holdings in former Soviet Republics, including Russia. Nu- clear states and their defense planners continued to tend to their nuclear forces while adjusting their role to a reality no longer centered on the prospect of a war between two nuclear hegemons. Aided by the arms control agreements between the superpowers in the last years of the Cold War and the first years after, and by the positive hopes for a new and constructive relationship between the Unit- ed States and Russia, the world’s nuclear states welcomed this less tense reality. © 2020 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences 6 https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_e_01786 Robert Legvold & Christopher F. Chyba Attention in the United States shifted to threats associated with the nuclear ambi- tions of countries like Iran and North Korea, and to the possibility of nuclear ter- rorism. True, by the turn of the century, Russia and China had begun to empha- size what each saw as elements of an ongoing U.S. nuclear threat, and the United States now included both in the scenarios guiding its efforts to refine its extend- ed deterrence commitments in Europe and Asia. But this recrudescence of con- cern over nuclear trends largely flowed along channels of familiar thought rath- er than turning national attention to the formidable new challenges of a multipo- lar nuclear world. he evolution from what was fundamentally a two-sided order into to- day’s more multifarious setting adds complexity and gives a new dimen- T sion to familiar challenges and dangers.
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