Central Gosforth Transport Study Summary Report Newcastle City Council
January 2007
QM
Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3
Remarks Draft Status Draft Final
Date December 2006 January 2007
Prepared by Richard Jones Richard Jones
Signature Richard Jones Richard Jones
Checked by David Gawthorpe David Gawthorpe
Signature David Gawthorpe David Gawthorpe
Authorised by Mike D’Alton Mike D’Alton
Signature Mike D’Alton Mike D’Alton
Project number 40521102 40521102
File reference 40521102 40521102
WSP Development and Transportation 6 South Park Way Wakefield 41 Business Park Wakefield West Yorkshire WF2 0XJ
Tel: +44 (0)1924 290 484 Fax: +44 (0)1924 368 468 http://www.wspgroup.com
Reg. No: 2382309
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
1 Introduction 5
2 The First Consultation 7
3 Existing Situation 12
4 Future Developments and Traffic Predictions 18
5 Traffic Model Development 32
6 The Second Consultation 36
7 The Way Forward 39
Appendix A Survey Form - Consultation 1 Appendix B Distribution of Responses - Consultation 1 Appendix C Area Analysis Plans - Consultation 1 Appendix D Accident Plots Appendix E Survey Form - Consultation 2 Appendix F Distribution of Responses - Consultation 2 Appendix G Detailed Comments - Consultation 2 Appendix H Action Plan
3
Executive Summary
WSP was commissioned by Newcastle City Council to undertake a transport study of Central Gosforth. This report provides a summary of a number of technical reports. The study has been undertaken to identify improvements required in the Central Gosforth area to reduce the impact of through and development generated traffic, and to improve accessibility for all modes of travel. The prime focus of the Study, as a whole, is to ensure that movement patterns within the area are identified, and links to destinations outside of the area are examined. The Study aims to investigate both the traffic management and movement issues throughout the Central Gosforth Area. The study examines the existing travel patterns and identifies issues of concern and possible interventions in the area. The study has delivered a model of the transportation environment to be used as an assessment tool in a later part (Stage 2) of the Study. A wide spread consultation exercise was carried out in November 2005 as a part of the process of identifying the issues identified above. Over 800 responses were received. Responses were received from right across Gosforth. Analysis of consultation results showed that the largest public concern in the Gosforth area was on-street car parking (28% of total responses). 15% of comments were associated with junctions. 14% of responses were related to public transport issues. 10% raised traffic congestion as a major issue. The consultation provided anecdotal evidence of rat running and traffic speeding on inappropriate roads. Analysis of car ownership levels based on 2001 census data shows higher levels of car ownership with 23% of households with 2 cars compared to 13% for Newcastle. The proportion of people who travel to work by car is also higher than average for Gosforth, with 55% of people travelling by car compared to 46% for the Newcastle area as a whole. This evidence points towards a car dominated environment in an area characterised by a local road network in residential areas, which was not originally designed to accommodate high usage of the private car. Analysis of census data shows that the daytime population (or working population) of Gosforth is significantly higher than the resident population illustrating the important role of Gosforth as a local employment centre. Associated with this there is evidence of commuter based car parking problems on residential streets. Some of these have been addressed by the implementation of travel plans at major employers such as Northern Rock, and associated with this a number of resident parking zones (RPZ) have been implemented. Further RPZs may be implemented in other residential areas based on the finding of recent car parking surveys. Analysis of central government predictions (TEMPRO) of background traffic growth would suggest an increase in traffic of 6.4% up to 2011 or 15% over the next 15 years (i.e. up to 2021). Analysis of major developments, such as Newcastle Great Park, Regents Point and Northern Rock, if delivered in full, will result in a net increase of 8700 jobs and 2140 households up to 2011. With future growth this would suggest that current problems will be exasperated without the implementation of traffic and transportation improvements in the area. Analysis of accident data in the study area shows a relatively good safety record with 548 accidents over a five year assessment period. Analysis of accidents by severity shows 1 fatal, 40 serious injuries and the remainder slight over a five year period. A number of accident clusters are located at specific junctions. Some of these are already being dealt with as part of a planned programme of improvements in the area (e.g.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 1
Hollywood Road 20mph zone, Broadway West junction improvements). Improvements to the junction between Hollywood Avenue and Great North Road (at Asda) are being considered. A review of existing traffic data and information in the study area found that, in general, there was a lack of detailed data with regard to traffic patterns on the local road network such as junction based counts, automatic traffic counts and origin- destination surveys. As such manual classified counts were commissioned at key junctions on the Great North Road between Blue House Roundabout and Great Park. These counts were used to develop a VISSIM based micro-simulation traffic model of the area to represent existing traffic conditions. A second consultation exercise was carried out on September 21st 2006 to report back the initial findings of the study and to capture the public’s views on the best way forward. The VISSIM model was used at the exhibition to demonstrate existing traffic conditions. The consultation focused on the role of the High Street, traffic growth in the area as well as the need for a revised car parking strategy for the area. Over a thousand completed questionnaire responses were received.
The Way Forward The results of the second stage consultation showed that the need to investigate ways to reduce traffic levels across Gosforth as a whole ranked as the most important issue amongst the publics views. The need for a revised area-wide parking strategy to help deal with commuter/ visitor parking and encourage better use of existing car parks ranked second amongst the publics views. The need to investigate improvements to the Gosforth High Street and the need to investigate ways of reducing traffic on the High Street ranked third and fourth respectively. Through the consultations and site visits the study has identified a number of small scale traffic management and traffic engineering issues in the area. These include calls for traffic calming, control of rat running through residential areas and ‘high’ vehicle speeds in certain areas. Other issues highlighted were the need for improved lining and signing as well as calls for new pedestrian crossings. It is proposed that these issues are passed on to the Newcastle City Council Area Traffic Management Teams for further consideration and investigation. The majority of comments concerned parking issues and concern over increasing future levels of traffic in the area as well as improvements to existing junctions. Some of these issues being already dealt with by programmed schemes. It is therefore proposed that the next stage of the study should investigate a revised area wide parking strategy for Gosforth to include resident parking, commuter parking and maximising the use of existing off street car parking. This ties in with an area wide review of residential parking across the City. As part of this, Central Gosforth should be treated as a priority, due to the development pressures in the area. It is proposed that the VISSIM model is used to represent future traffic conditions. The study has reviewed the likely level of traffic growth in the area associated with both natural traffic growth and the impact of new development. Hence it is proposed to use the VISSIM model to test traffic impacts of traffic growth levels on the operation of Great North Road
2 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
Linked with the above there is a need to investigate the effects of increased traffic levels across Gosforth as a whole, particularly the reassignment of traffic, due to congestion, on local roads. This could be investigated through the development of a macro- simulation model of the area. This would necessitate a wide spread data collection exercise to provide an accurate and up to date picture of travel patterns in the area. The study identified the importance of Gosforth as a local employment centre. The study also identified a significant proportion of comments relating to the need of improved public transport in the area. It is further proposed that the next stage of the study should consider an integrated transport strategy for the area focusing on public transport accessibility for the existing and proposed major developments. There is potential to deliver public transport improvements to the local employment centre through the creation of a Business Improvement District. It is recommended that the issues outlined above should be progressed as part of Stage 2 of Gosforth Transport Study.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 3
1 Introduction
1.1 STUDY BACKGROUND 1.1.1 This summary report is the culmination of a series of reports as part of a comprehensive study undertaken to identify improvements required in the Central Gosforth area to reduce the impact of through and development generated traffic, and to improve accessibility for all modes of travel. 1.1.2 The prime focus of the Study, as a whole, is to ensure that movement patterns within the area are identified, and links to destinations outside of the area are examined. The Study aims to investigate both the traffic management and movement issues throughout the Central Gosforth Area. 1.1.3 Stage 1 of the Study examined the existing travel patterns and identify all areas of concern and possible interventions in the area. This stage of the Study delivered a model of the transportation environment within the Study area to be used as an assessment tool in a later part (Stage 2) of the Study. 1.1.4 Stage 2 will be undertaken at a later date and based on the initial findings of the Stage 1 study, is intended to develop a transportation management regime within the Central Gosforth area and identify any infrastructure improvements required. Committed development schemes will be examined and assessed for future implications within the Study area. The study will also assess the future potential of policy driven management techniques to manage future travel demands and will also provide a traffic model of the main movement network within the Study area.
1.2 STUDY AREA 1.2.1 The Study area is centred upon Central Gosforth but includes most of the northern suburbs of Newcastle between the A1 trunk road on the western fringe and the boundary with North Tyneside MBC in the east. Central to the Study area is the main arterial route of the Great North Road/Gosforth High Street and there are also a number of busy orbital routes. The area is predominately residential with commercial activity being mainly focused around Regent Centre and Gosforth High Street. There are additionally industrial areas around Christon Road and just outside the Study area in Fawdon. See Figure 1.2.1 overleaf. 1.2.2 The busy traffic routes through the Study area lead to some degree of congestion and community severance. The localised congestion can create problems for both residents and also for public transport access to the City Centre. The Council is committed to providing priority for public transport along main arterial routes and one element of the Study will need to examine measures to give priority to public transport on key nodes and corridors along with an examination of the potential impact of such measures. 1.2.3 There is also pressure from new development within the Study area that needs to be examined. The Study will examine the overall impact of these developments on the local transportation networks and also provide a critical overview of the Transport Assessments that have been submitted by developers in support of the larger developments. The study will include a review of on street parking and the need for additional controls in areas under pressure.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 5
.
Figure 1.2.1 – Study Area
6 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
2 The First Consultation
2.1 CONSULTATION DETAILS 2.1.1 A questionnaire was distributed via a postal drop to approximately 14,000 households in the Gosforth area in November 2005. The distribution area was made up of the following wards: West Gosforth, East Gosforth, Parklands and parts of Kenton and Fawdon. A sample questionnaire form is contained in Appendix A. The questionnaires Over 800 responses could be returned via a free post address or alternatively, comments could be emailed to were received directly a central address. through the post and at the consultation 2.1.2 A public consultation event was also held on Wednesday 30th November 2005 event. at Gosforth Civic Centre between 10:00am and 8:00pm. Questionnaires could also be completed and handed in at the event 2.1.3 Residents were asked to give their views on traffic issues on local streets and also the wider Gosforth area together with ideas on resolving problems.
2.2 RESPONSE RATE 2.2.1 Overall over 800 responses were received directly through the post and at the consultation event. This represents a 6% response rate. Analysis shows a wide distribution of responses across the Study area. See Appendix B. 2.2.2 It is estimated that about 150 people attended the consultation event which generated some lively debate on traffic and transportation issues across the Study area
2.3 ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 2.3.1 A broad analysis of consultation responses was undertaken to identify the key themes that the consultation had raised. These were divided into a number of topics which are detailed in Figure 2.3.1.
Consultation Summary Traffic Calming Traffic Congestion Speed Limits Cycling Issues General Highway Junction Lining and signing Street Lighting Parking Pedestrian Public Transport Speeding Rat Running Traffic Management
Figure 2.3.1 Summary of Consultation Responses
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 7
2.3.2 Table 2.3.2 illustrates summary results in percentage terms.
Issue No % Parking 306 28.0% Junction 167 15.3% Public Transport 151 13.8% Traffic Congestion 111 10.2% General 87 8.0% Speeding 51 4.7% Rat Running 42 3.8% Pedestrian 37 3.4% Traffic Calming 37 3.4% Traffic Management 37 3.4% Highway 23 2.1% Speed Limits 19 1.7% Cycling Issues 12 1.1% Lining and signing 8 0.7% Street Lighting 5 0.5%
Table 2.3.2 – Summary of Consultation Results
2.4 SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS BY ISSUE
PARKING 28% of comments 2.4.1 The majority of responses (28%) received related to car parking. A large received related to number of comments concerned commuter parking on residential streets. Residents car parking. having difficulties parking on Salter’s Road due to Northern Rock commuter parking was raised as a particular concern. 2.4.2 Associated with commuter parking there were a number of requests for the further implementation and extension of resident parking schemes (RPZ) to combat the migration of commuter parking as recent RPZ schemes have been implemented associated with local developments. In some areas commuter parking has led to difficulties in parking around community facilities particularly the swimming pool and library. Parking on pavements was highlighted as a particular problem. 2.4.3 There were few issues raised in relation to off-street car parks although some respondees raised the need for more car parks in Gosforth. The potential for a Park and Ride on the outskirts of Gosforth was also raised.
TRAFFIC CALMING 2.4.4 3.6% of responses related to traffic calming. There were geographically widespread requests for the further implementation of traffic calming measures across the area. See area Analysis Plan – Appendix C.
20 MPH ZONES/ SPEED LIMITS 2.4.5 There were a number of streets in the area upon which residents requested 20 mph zones or current 20mph speed limits should be extended.
8 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
10% of responses TRAFFIC CONGESTION identified increased 2.4.6 10% of responses identified increased traffic congestion as an issue of traffic congestion as concern. This was largely attributed to increased traffic levels on certain routes. One an issue of concern. particular area was identified as Hollywood Avenue.
CYCLING 2.4.7 The consultation results showed that there were surprisingly few comments concerning cycling. There was a general view that better cycle lanes and routes should be implemented as well as the improved signing of routes. Mathew Bank and Jesmond Dene Road were identified as areas where cycle facilities could be improved.
HIGHWAY ISSUES 2.4.8 A number of responses (15.3%) raised the potential for a ‘Gosforth Bypass’. A small number of issues such as the lack of gritting and poor drainage on certain roads were also highlighted.
JUNCTIONS 2.4.9 A large number of responses (167) identified issues concerning junctions in and around Gosforth. A large number of responses identified Blue House Roundabout as dangerous. Some responses suggested that part time signals should be implemented on the roundabout. 2.4.10 A number of responses identified mini roundabouts on Polwarth Drive as an issue. The Haddricks Mill junction was also identified as an area of concern. 2.4.11 Other responses related to difficulties turning in/ out of junctions. A number of responses identified access to Melton Park as a problem. A number of junctions along Kenton Road were identified as being problematic. See area Analysis Plan – Appendix C
LINING AND SIGNING 2.4.12 Lining and signing was only identified as an issue in a small number of responses these included abuse of double yellow lines and lack of road markings and signing on a small number of streets.
STREET LIGHTING 2.4.13 Street lighting was identified in a small number of responses. These included improving street lighting on St Nicholas Avenue/ Belle Vue/ Moor Road and also Lansdowne Place. There were calls for more lighting on Kilnshaw Place and Moor Road junction with The Grove. These were mainly related to safety related concerns.
PEDESTRIAN ISSUES 2.4.14 There were a large number of responses relating to pedestrian issues. These included the need for new crossings, new pavements and more (and longer) pedestrian phases to be included at existing signalised junctions. A few issues around school crossings and safety measures e.g. pedestrian safety railings were raised. 2.4.15 An area based analysis of this issue has been carried out and is detailed in the following section. See area Analysis Plan – Appendix C
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 9
PUBLIC TRANSPORT 2.4.16 In comparison to traffic related responses there were a low number of issues associated with public transport (13.8%). The cost of public transport (fares) was a common issue raised. A large number of responses requested that bus lane traffic restrictions on the High Street should be eased to peak hours only. Some responses stated that the bus lanes should be better enforced, others, that the bus lanes should be removed. The potential for converting bus lanes to no car lanes was also raised.
RAT RUNNING 2.4.17 3.8% of respondents identified rat running through residential streets as a particular problem. An area based analysis of this issue has been carried out and is detailed in the Area Analysis Plans – Appendix C.
TRAFFIC SPEEDS 2.4.18 Traffic speeding on a number of roads was identified by a number of residents (4.7%). An area based analysis of this issue has been carried out and is detailed in the Area Analysis Plans – Appendix C.
TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT 2.4.19 A number of traffic management issues were raised. These included banning HGVs from certain routes, closing off certain roads as well as the implementation of banned right turns at junctions, one-way systems and road widening
OTHER GENERAL COMMENTS 2.4.20 There was general feeling that traffic congestion had increased due to Newcastle Great Park and there was strong feeling that constraints should be put on the level of house building in Gosforth. There was opposition to the further development of the Regent Centre.
2.5 SUMMARY OF AREA/ STREET ANALYSIS RESULTS 2.5.1 A number of topics were considered in more detail to identify specific areas where certain transport issues were a particular problem. These included:
Rat Running
Traffic Speeding
Pedestrian Issues
Junctions
Traffic Calming 2.5.2 The results of this analysis are represented on a number of plans contained in Appendix C.
2.6 ACCIDENT ANALYSIS 2.6.1 A number of responses raised the need for traffic calming, implementation of 20mph zones, speeding traffic and poor pedestrian crossing facilities. These responses identify important public concerns in relation to road safety in the area. To corroborate this evidence a detailed analysis of accident patterns in the area was carried out looking at the total number of accidents, cycling related accidents and pedestrian related accidents over a five year period. Plans plotting the distribution of these accidents over a 5 year period are located in Appendix D for pedestrians, cyclists and all users. A summary is presented in Table 2.6.
10 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
Personal Injury Accidents Total Pedestrian Cyclists Fatal 1 0 0 Accident plots for Serious 40 16 7 pedestrians, cyclists and all users are Slight 507 84 69 located in Appendix D.
Table 2.6 - 5 Year Personal Injury Accident Record (January 2000 – December 2004) 2.6.2 Analysis of pedestrian accidents shows very few accident clusters with a linear distribution of pedestrian related accidents along heavily trafficked routes such as Great North Road, Kenton Road and Church Land/ Station Road 2.6.3 Analysis of cycling related accidents again shows a linear distribution along key roads with the majority of accidents on Great North Road. There are few accidents on Kenton Road. Small clusters are identifiable at Blue House Roundabout (4), Haddricks Mill junction (5) and around the Asda Superstore (10). 2.6.4 Analysis of total accidents shows that the vast majority of accidents are purely road vehicle related. There is a linear distribution of accidents on key routes such as Great North Road, Kenton Road, Salters Road, Church Avenue and Jesmond Dene/ Matthew Bank. 2.6.5 There are identifiable clusters at a number of major junctions e.g. Blue House Roundabout, Haddricks Mill, Kenton Road/ Grandstand Road junction, the Regent Centre Roundabout and Broadway/ Great North Road. 2.6.6 The information derived from the consultation exercise will be fed into the development of an action plan for Gosforth to help deliver transportation improvements across the Study area.
2.7 SUMMARY 2.7.1 In general the key issues identified in the consultation relate to on street car parking and increased traffic congestion. These comments account for over 40% of total responses. Comments relating to traffic junctions accounted for 16% of responses. A significant amount of comments were received relating to the need for public transport improvements in the area.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 11
3 Existing Situation
3.1 DEMOGRAPHICS AND CENSUS DATA ANALYSIS 3.1.1 Census 2001 data was collected from the National Statistics Government website at ward level to investigate travel patterns in the Gosforth area. The Study area is covered largely by two wards covered in the 2001 Census; South Gosforth and Grange. These ward boundaries have subsequently been revised. Figure 3.1.1: Census Ward Areas
Figure 3.1.1
12 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
3.1.2 Employment and travel trends within the North East provide a comparable basis to identify outlying trends in relation to its surrounds.
3.2 CAR OWNERSHIP 3.2.1 The following graph shows car ownership by household within the Gosforth area, Newcastle and the North East. Figure 3.2.1: Rates of car ownership
Car Ownership
50%
45% Gosforth Area
40% New castle 35% s d 30% hol
e North Eas t
ous 25% H 20% on of i t r 15% opo r 10% P
5%
0% e 0 1 2 3 r o m
4 or 3.2.2 Car ownership levels are high, reflecting the parking problems currently experienced in residential areas.
3.3 TRAVEL TO WORK 3.3.1 Census provides information about the preferred method and distance travelled to work for the resident population or workplace population of an area. This can be used as an indication of travel patterns mainly in AM and PM peaks when the majority of employees are travelling to/ from work.
RESIDENT POPULATION 3.3.2 Travel to work data for the resident population shows the percentage share for different transport modes. 3.3.3 Figure 3.3.3 shows modal split for journeys to work originating in the Gosforth area, Gateshead and North East.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 13
Figure 3.3.3: Mode split – resident population
Modal Split (Resident Population)
60%
50% Gosforth Area ion t 40% New c as tle opula P nt 30% de i North East s e R 20% on of i t
opor 10% r P
0% i r t r e n e o s n n e x i l e o tr a a c m cl h o ge e Bu y V V Ta f
Tra c cy r r Ot Ho en i r M , s l o B o o On i t s r r a a P t r Ca Ca Mo gh i L
3.3.4 Modal split figures are fairly consistent in relation to the local area and data for the North East with the exception of a high proportion of Metro use given easy access to the Tyne & Wear Metro system from Gosforth. This may account for the lower bus patronage in comparison to Newcastle. 3.3.5 The following graph shows the cumulative distance travelled to work for Gosforth and regional trends. Figure 3.3.5: Cumulative travel to work distance – resident population
Cumulative Distance Travelled To Work (Resident Population)
100%
75% on i t opor r
P 50% e v
i Gosforth Area t a l u m
u New castle
C 25%
North Eas t
0% K e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e on c <5 r < 2 ti U a <1 <2 <3 <4 <6 >6 o a e l pl h d i al t s ffs t ed O x i Ins Ou f
Distance (km) o N
3.3.6 The median is a more reliable average because Census data is aggregated into class widths.
14 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
3.3.7 It is clear from the graph that the average distance travelled in the North East is approximately 5km whereas Gosforth residents within the study areas travel approximately 3.5-4km to work. The Gosforth area also shows a slightly lower journey distance to work than the city wide figures.
WORKPLACE POPULATION 3.3.8 Travel to work data for the workplace population provides information about the preferred transport mode for travelling to work within the study are, irrespective of where they are travelling from. 3.3.9 The following graph represents modal split for journeys to work for all employees working within the Gosforth area, Newcastle and the North East. Figure 3.3.9: Mode split – workplace population
Modal Split (Workplace Population)
70%
Gosforth Area 60% n o i t a 50% New c as tle opul 40% North Eas t ace P l p k
r 30% o W f o
20% n o i t r
o 10% p o r P 0% i e n e o s n n e x i l a a tr a m oot her t e Bu Ta ycl f V V Tr cyc c r r n Ho O enger i r s , M B o o o l O i t s r r a o a P Ca Ca M t r h g i L 3.3.10 The graph shows no major differences between Gosforth and the local and regional figures. However, bus use is slightly lower and car/van use higher in comparison to Newcastle. 3.3.11 Figure 3.3.11 below shows a cumulative figure for the distance travelled to work.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 15
Figure 3.3.11: Cumulative travel to work distance – workplace population
Cumulative Distance Travelled To Work (Workplace Population)
100%
n 75% o i t or
op Gosf orth r
P Area
e 50% v i t
la New castle u m u
C 25% North East
0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 <5 < 2 <1 <2 <3 <4 <6 >6
Distance (km)
3.3.12 Average distance travelled to work in Gosforth is between 6 and 7km, similar to the Newcastle figures but above the regional trend of less than 5 km.
DAYTIME VS RESIDENT POPULATION 3.3.13 The daytime (or working) population of Gosforth is significantly higher than the resident population with a net increase of 2,413 people.
Figure 3.3.13: Daytime and resident populations
20000 18583 18000 16170 16000 14000 n o
i 12000 t Resident Population a 10000 Daytime Population
opul 8000 P 6000 4000 2000 0 Comparison of resident and daytime population figures
16 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
3.4 CONCLUSIONS
Car ownership in the Gosforth area is above both local and regional levels, this is reflected in journeys to work figures for the resident population with higher than average car use.
Car use is also above average for the daytime population, which is higher than the resident population.
The resident population have a below average journey to work distance (3.5 – 4km), in contrast to the daytime population which is markedly higher and above the average at 6-7km.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 17
4 Future Developments and Traffic Predictions
4.1 BACKGROUND TRAFFIC GROWTH 4.1.1 An assessment of TEMPRO (Trip End Model Program) traffic growth factors was undertaken. These figures represent an estimate of future year traffic growth and are published by the Government. The growth rates are derived from the National Trip End Model (NTEM). TEMPRO takes account of new trips (due to new development), increased car ownership and increased journey lengths. TEMPRO forecasts growth in travel across all modes. An analysis was carried out of TEMPRO future year traffic Based on TEMPRO growth for Gosforth for average weekday traffic (AWD) for car drivers. The results are growth factors traffic could displayed in Table 4.1.1. be expected to grow by 18% over the next fifteen years. AWD (Car Driver) Productions Attractions Time Period 2006 - 2011 1.080 1.064 + 5 Years
2006 – 2016 1.128 1.099 + 10 Years 2006 - 2021 1.176 1.130 + 15 Years
Table 4.1.1 – Newcastle (Urban) TEMPRO Factors (Car Drivers - Average Weekday) This traffic growth represents “background” growth and is based on Government predictions of economic growth, housing predictions and migration trends. This does not take full account of major development/ regeneration initiatives. In other areas in which WSP has worked on major transport studies, for example Tees Valley and Sunderland, the objective of the Urban Regeneration Company (URC) has been to reverse this trend based approach and subsequently alternative forecasting techniques have been adopted. These have taken account of new and pivotal development sites which are not considered to have been included in TEMPRO forecasts. Hence trips generated by major new developments are added to TEMPRO forecasts.
Tempro Factors - Newcastle (Urban)
1.2
1.15 walk 1.1 cycle car driver r 1.05 o t
c car passengers
Fa 1 bus/coach rail/underground 0.95 combine mode 0.9
0.85 2006 2011 2016 2021 Year
18 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
Source: Trip End Model Program (TEMPRO)
4.2 STRATEGIC TRAFFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 4.2.1 In April 2001 Newcastle City Council commissioned consultants to construct a strategic traffic model (STM) of the City and surrounding area. 4.2.2 The model is currently under development and is being calibrated and validated to accepted Department for Transport (DfT) standards, to demonstrate that the base year model (2001) is robust and suitable for option testing. The model will be used to test future highway schemes, demand management measures and public transport Development locations improvements. are shown in Figure 3.1. 4.2.3 At present the model is being set up to test schemes up to 2011 and 2021. The forecasting procedure is underpinned by a trip rate model based on planning data. The procedure is compatible with the National Trip End Model and will be consistent with the measures and policies proposed in the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the North East such as housing numbers and planned major developments. At present there is no information available on the actual growth factors and how they compare to TEMPRO traffic growth assumptions. 4.2.4 It is important that the traffic forecasting approach adopted in the Gosforth Transport study is consistent with the development of the STM forecasting methodology and that assumptions on trip ends in the zones that represent the areas of interest in the Study area are analogous to those found in the local model.
4.3 REVIEW OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS 4.3.1 A number of major developments are planned in the Study area. These include:
Newcastle Great Park
Northern Rock Headquarters
Regents Point
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 19
Figure 4.4.1
4.4 NEWCASTLE GREAT PARK 4.4.1 Figure 4.4.1 shows the location of the development in respect of the district centre and strategic road network. 4.4.2 The principal elements of Newcastle Great Park (NGP) scheme can be summarised as follows:
20 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
A business and industrial park with ancillary uses totalling approximately 88 ha (or 85 ha with green corridors retained) from with 80 ha would be developed – located to the north of Brunton Lane;
Housing development areas with gross cell areas totalling approximately 117 ha for at least 2,500 dwellings, schools, local open space, and internal infrastructure located mainly to the south of Brunton Lane;
A high capacity public transport corridor;
A public transport network;
Green Transport Plan and other non car borne initiatives;
A local centre with land for community uses, shops, health centre etc;
An environmental framework of open space, including community woodland, nature conservation, and wildlife corridors; and
A new distributor spine road system to serve the development, together with improvements to the A1 and several interchanges;
Mitigation measures on the secondary road network.
4.4.3 The on-site elements are divided into a number of cells. Cells A, B and C are intended for economic development with Cells D to I are allocated for residential development. Further details of the proposals are provided in the Planning, Design and Environmental Statements. 4.4.4 The economic development sites are allocated in the City Council’s Unitary Development Plan (UDP) as suitable for offices, high technology industry, and research and development (Class B1 of the Use Classes Order 1987) and clean, high quality, high technology industrial uses within Class B2. The City Council has historically anticipated that, with this mix of uses, between 6,000 and 10,000 people could be employed on the site. More recent work undertaken by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners, contained within the submitted Economic and Regeneration Effects Report, estimates that, based on the current predicted mix of uses, there are likely to be 8,200 jobs directly created on site. The NGP will provide one of the top locations for economic development in the North East region. 4.4.5 It is unknown at this time as to the final end-users of the economic development areas but for the purposes of this assessment the following assumptions in Table 4.2.5 have been taken regarding the end-use of each cell.
Area Use Class Net Site Area Gross Floor Area (Ha) of Devt (M2)
A B2 47 145,700 B (Constructed) B1 12.3 32,150 C B1 20.7 54,100 Total 80 231,950
Table 4.2.5 – Economic Development Cells – Assumed Land Uses
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 21
4.4.6 The proposed number of residential dwellings in Cells D to I are as follows:
Cell Number of Dwellings
D 530 dwellings E 90 dwellings F 830 dwellings G 410 dwellings H (Already constructed) 110 dwellings I (Under construction) 530 dwellings TOTAL 2,500 dwellings
Table 4.4.6 – NGP Residential Allocation
4.4.7 A site for a local centre is located immediately north of Cell F. This will include:
land for shops and other retail services;
community building;
library as part of the community building;
land for a building for religious activities if needed;
primary health facilities as needed;
indoor sports hall as part of the community building;
playing fields with changing facilities;
ancillary car parking.
4.4.8 The overall development time frame is now expected to be a 10 to 12 year period from 2000 to 2011. Three phases were envisaged; Phase 1, 2000-2003, Phase 2, 2004 to 2007 and Phase 3, 2008 to 2011. It is expected that 740 residential properties will be constructed in Phase 1, 960 in Phase 2 and 800 in Phase 3. 4.4.9 Public transport proposals for the NGP are considerably enhanced from those previously proposed for the Northern Development Area (NDA) scheme in the earlier Transport Impact Assessment to respond to emerging Government guidance and policy. Two Metro Complimentary Services linking the NGP to the Metro and the City Centre will be provided, together with a further high quality bus service to the City Centre and a direct service to the West End and General Hospital via Kingston Park. 4.4.10 In addition, several existing services will be re-routed via the NGP providing direct links to communities such as Cramlington, Killingworth, Wide Open, Longbenton, Battle Hill, Whitley Bay and Hazlerigg. 4.4.11 Priority will be provided both on and off-site for these services. On-site, the detailed design of the cells within the NGP has specifically taken into account the needs of public transport and the need to minimise walking distance for passengers and delays to buses. Off-site priority measures along the Great North Road corridor are to be funded to improve reliability and journey time.
22 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
4.4.12 To encourage cycling and walking, segregated routes for cyclists and pedestrians will be created, linking all areas of the NGP. These segregated routes will be linked with the adjacent communities of Kingston Park, Fawdon, Gosforth, Brunton Park, Kenton Bar, Hazlerigg and Wide Open. Routes will extend to the City Centre, Blakelaw and Newbiggin Hall. Again the provision for these modes on the NGP is considerably enhanced compared with the earlier proposals for the NDA. 4.4.13 A spine road providing vehicular access for Cells A to G will run through the NGP. The primary access for this spine road onto the strategic highway network will be via the A1 North Brunton Interchange. A secondary access will be via the A1 Kingston Park Interchange. 4.4.14 Vehicular access for residential Cells H and I will be via Brunton Lane East and the B1318 Great North Road.
PROPOSED MEASURES 4.4.15 The full development of NGP will generate a considerable demand for movement to, from and within the site. 4.4.16 A package of transportation investment is being funded to provide realistic alternatives to the car for travel to and from the NGP and to ensure that the development is not reliant on the car as the sole means of travel.
GREEN TRANSPORT PLAN 4.4.17 A comprehensive Green Transport Plan has been formulated. This will promote alternatives for travel other than the private car. A Green Transport Co- ordinator will be appointed to promote these initiatives which will be highly innovative and at the forefront of current thinking and emergent Government policy.
PUBLIC TRANSPORT 4.4.18 The developer will:
provide Metro Complementary Services between the NGP and City Centre interchanging with the Metro at Regent Centre, with capability for possible onward extension to the airport;
construct facilities on and off site to provide priority for public transport;
provide high quality facilities at NGP public transport halts including shelters, seating, level boarding and real-time information;
provide significant financial support for the provision of services in early years to enable the operators to provide high frequency services to link with the Metro, Gosforth, Kingston Park and the City Centre. Other existing services will be re- routed into the NGP from Wide Open, Killingworth, Cramlington etc.
ensure the use of high quality, easy access vehicles to the latest European standards at time of introduction;
work with the City Council, Nexus and the bus operators to provide services to other areas of the City and to provide through-ticketing where possible; and
provide a 1,000 space, secure Park and Ride facility;
Fund free travel to work for NGP employees for the first four years of commercial development on the NGP. 40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 23
PEDESTRIAN, CYCLE AND EQUESTRIAN MOVEMENT 4.4.19 Over 38 kilometres (24 miles) of pedestrians and cycle routes are to be provided on and off-site. Funding will be made for the City Council to provide six off-site cycle routes (one of which serves North Tyneside). In addition a further 8km (5 miles) of informal footpaths are to be provided within the NGP running through the strategic landscape areas. 4.4.20 In conjunction with the City Council, it is intended that safe pedestrian and cycle routes will be provided to:
A bus gate is proposed Blakelaw on Brunton Lane to prevent residential Kenton Bar traffic entering/ exiting Fawdon the development from cells D, E, F & G via Kingston Park Centre and the Metro this route whilst Brunton Park maintaining public transport access to the High Gosforth site. Gosforth High School
Gosforth West Middle School
City Centre
Hazlerigg, Brunswick Village and Wide Open
Regents Centre Metro 4.4.21 These will provide an attractive alternative for workers, residents and, in particular, school children to use cycles as a mode of transport rather that the private car. Facilities for cyclists at employment sites will be ensured, i.e. parking and showering facilities and secure parking funded at schools and the Metro. In addition, through the Green Transport Plan, the developers are funding a cycle purchase discount scheme of up to £75 per NGP per household. 4.4.22 Full account of those with a mobility disadvantage will be taken in the design of the NGP. 4.4.23 Equestrians will also be catered for by a network of bridleways being provided alongside some of the strategic cycling/walking routes in the NGP. In total these new equestrian routes amount to 5km (3 miles).
HIGHWAY MOVEMENTS AND PARKING 4.4.24 The City Council and Central Government are seeking to restrain car travel, especially for trips to work and to and from schools by making alternatives available. These alternatives are being provided in a comprehensive way at the NGP. There will however, especially in the short term and until measures are applied more regionally and nationally, be a large demand for travel to and from the NGP by car. This has been recognised and to mitigate the impacts of this traffic on local areas, investment is to be made on the strategic highway network, in particular the trunk road network in the vicinity of the NGP to accommodate this additional traffic.
24 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
4.4.25 A series of schemes were discussed with the Highways Agency and City Council to provide additional capacity on the trunk and main distributor road network. These schemes intend to maximise the use of the investment made in the last decade of the strategic road network. They have been designed to be as environmentally sensitive as possible and are generally either on-line improvements within existing highway boundaries or better management of traffic at the junctions. 4.4.26 The schemes are:
A19 Seaton Burn roundabout improvements
North Brunton interchange improvements
Kingston Park interchange improvements
Ponteland Road interchange improvements
Stamfordham interchange improvements
Widening of the A1 between North Brunton and Kingston Park
Widening of the A1 between Kingston Park and Ponteland Road
A1056 dualling between the A1 and Gosforth Park roundabout
Contribution of funds to the City Council for the dualling of the A1056 Sandy Lane northwards from the Gosforth Park roundabout to North Tyneside boundary
Ponteland Road/Kenton Lane roundabout improvement and other measures
4.4.27 The Highways Agency had agreed in principle that the scope of these highway improvements were such that the additional traffic from the earlier NDA proposals could have been satisfactorily accommodated on the trunk road network. Given the reforecast figures for the NGP are similar to that for the NDA it is considered that these proposals remain appropriate. 4.4.28 On the secondary highway network in the area, the NGP is likely to generate some additional traffic. Its impact will be mitigated where possible. A series of local road schemes had been agreed with the City Council to mitigate the impact of the earlier NDA proposals. It is considered that the majority of these proposals remain appropriate. However, improvements to Church Road/Salters Road are no longer proposed and alternative traffic calming and public transport measures are to be provided instead. The remaining schemes are intended to maximise the use of existing road space safely whilst improving conditions for pedestrians and cyclists rather than create new highways or improvements out of scale with their surroundings. The schemes are:
Brunton Lane (East)/Great North Road junction improvements
Brunton Lane (East) Widening
Kingston Par Road (West) improvement
Kingston Park Road (East)/Fawdon Lane Junction improvement
Traffic claming and safety schemes in several areas, notably Kingston Park, Fawdon, Gosforth and Wide Open.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 25
4.4.29 In keeping with the overall development aim to restrain car travel both within and to and from the NGP, several demand management measures are being supported. The number of parking spaces to be provided in the commercial areas will be the minimum consistent with the efficient operation of the NGP occupiers. Lower car parking standards are to be adopted in the NGP with a ‘ratchet’ applied over the long term to lower parking ratios in line with changing national and local policies. The Green Transport Plan will greatly assist in changing NGP occupiers’ attitudes to alternatives to the car and commuter plans will be encouraged for all new employers.
CONCLUSIONS 4.4.30 The following may be concluded from the main transport assessment:
The NGP will generate a significant demand for movement to, from and within the site.
The developer will mitigate the impacts of traffic movement by:
- providing extensive high quality alternative modes of travel including Metro Complementary Services;
- promoting a comprehensive Green Transport Plan for the NGP as a whole;
- Encouraging employers to adopt commuter plans to discourage car usage;
- providing a 1,000 space, secure Park and Ride facility on the site;
- funding improvements on the strategic highway network to accommodate the additional traffic on this network;
- funding mitigation measures on the secondary highway network; and
- providing only the minimum number of parking spaces consistent with the efficient operation of the commercial developments.
The NGP will be highly accessible by all modes of travel as:
- Over 38 kilometres (24 miles) of pedestrian/cycle routes are being provided on and off-site;
- Over 8 kilometres (5miles) of informal pedestrian routes are being provided on- site;
- Four new frequent public transport services will be operated (two of which are Metro Complementary) with high quality vehicles and several existing services will be re-routed via the NGP.
- The A1 will be widened between Ponteland Road and North Brunton and five trunk road interchanges improved to reduce delays and better manage vehicular traffic and improve facilities for pedestrians/cyclists.
The NGP development consortium is considering submission of a planning application for revised and enhanced town centre uses. Additionally to create more sustainable patterns of development in Cell C (the economic development cell adjacent to the A1) revisions are planned to the Park and Ride site previously
26 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
proposed. These changes and any consequent amendment to the Section 106 agreement will need to be considered against the overall impact of the whole development as approved and set out in this section.
4.5 NORTHERN ROCK 4.5.1 The head office operations at Northern Rock House have been expanded over recent years reflecting the success of Northern Rock and their changing business needs. Table 4.5.1 provides information on past and future development phases.
Development Growth 1999 2004 2005 1 2009 2
GFA(m2) 19700 44989 59,880 69,042
Staff 1200 3100 4500 5500
Staff Density (m2/ person) 16.4 14.5 13.3 12.5
Parking Spaces 403 956 956 1606
Table 4.5.1 – Northern Rock Development Assumptions
1. Completion of consented development based on TA information. 2. Redevelopment of the site as part of Phase V.
4.5.2 The Phase V development proposes demolition of the existing tower block on the eastern side of the site and its replacement with a larger tower block. The current tower provides 4645m2 GFA of office accommodation for some 450 employees. 4.5.3 The proposed tower block will also be 10 storeys in height with a GFA of 15,966m2 and will provide accommodation for around 1450 staff, a net increase of 1000. Northern Rock is due to On completion Northern Rock will occupy a total area of 69,042m2. complete updated staff surveys and area wide 4.5.4 The proposed development includes increasing the on site parking provision by car parking surveys by 650 spaces extension to the existing multi-storey car park to provide a total of 1606 Easter 2006. These will parking spaces on the site. The overall level of car parking provision will be 1 space per be repeated every 2 43m2, within the National Maximum Parking Standard for offices stated in PPG13. years up to 2010. 4.5.5 Parking surveys were carried out around Northern Rock in 2001 and March 2004. The 2001 surveys identified a large number of Medium Stay (3-6 hours) car parking which was attributed to business and shopping trips but may also have included part-time workers. 4.5.6 During the 3 years the number of commuters on street has increased significantly from 74 to 270 as a result of increased staff and Northern Rock as well as construction workers. Commuter parking (7-10 hours) was still estimated to be a small proportion of the total parking demand (12%). Jubilee Road was identified as a location particularly identified as experiencing significant growth in car parking demand. 4.5.7 In summary the parking surveys showed that the level of commuter parking had risen as staff numbers at Northern Rock had increased and looked set to increase further unless effective parking controls were implemented.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 27
PARKING CONTROL 4.5.8 In response to this Northern Rock funded the implementation of two RPZ’s in the Regent Farm area and Hedley Farm area. These were deemed as critical to prevent commuter parking becoming a significant problem in the local area and were implemented in 2005. 4.5.9 If car parking activity migrated to adjoining unrestricted areas it was identified that the potential to extent the RPZ’s should include areas of Coxlodge and Salters Road. 4.5.10 These are now committed, secured through a Section 106 agreement.
TRAVEL PLAN 4.5.11 In addition to the implementation of the RPZ’s Northern Rock has implemented a staff travel plan based on staff travel surveys. Based on 2004 survey results this has been effective in achieving some mode shift away from solo car journeys towards greater public transport use and car sharing (see Table 4.5.11).
2009 Projected Mode Share with Mode 1999 Staff Survey 2004 Staff Survey % Change RPZ’s
Walk 5.4% 6.5% +1.1% 7.5%
Cycle 0.7% 0.6% -0.1% 1.7%
Public Transport 28.3% 30.0% +1.7% 37%
Car Driver 53.1% 50.4% -2.7% 35.3%
Car Passenger 8.7% 11.7% +3.0% 17.5%
Taxi - 0.4% - -
Motorcycle 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Other 3.6% 0.2% -3.4% 0.1%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Table 4.5.11 - Comparison of Mode Split 1999/ 2004
4.5.12 The survey identified staff that stated that were likely to switch from driving to work by car to alternative modes if more restrictive car parking arrangements were implemented around the site. Based on the results this would result in 679 less car based trips, reducing from 2268 to 1589 car based trips reducing the overall car mode share by 15% to 35%. 4.5.13 The Transport Assessment (TA) identified that of the remaining 1589 drivers under the consented scheme there would be 956 car parking spaces on site resulting in 633 car drivers seeking on street parking at the edge of the RPZ’s.
28 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
4.5.14 Based on projected mode split figures due to the implementation of the RPZ’s, the Phase V development is forecast to attract 353 cars, all of these cars would be accommodated in proposed 650 space car park. The remaining 297 spaces in the proposed car park would be used by drivers would otherwise park on street. Thus on street parking demand (see para. 3.3.13) would be reduced from 633 to 336 cars. The TA deems this is a similar level to that experienced currently. 4.5.15 In relation to local highway impacts the TA summarises that impacts of the Phase V at the two vehicular accesses to the site can be accommodated. The existing priority arrangements at the Jubilee Road access has sufficient capacity to cope with Phase V traffic flows. The existing Jubilee Road/ Regent Avenue traffic signals will continue to operate within capacity in 2009 and beyond 2010. It is proposed to introduce a new mini-roundabout at the Regent Farm Road access. 4.5.16 Fairhurst carried out additional work in November 2004 which forms an addendum to the main TA. This examined the combined effect on Northern Rock proposals and the Regent Point development. This concluded that the additional traffic generated by the Regent Point development in addition to Northern Rock proposal did not result in any significantly adverse effects on the local highway network.
4.6 REGENT POINT DEVELOPMENT 4.6.1 The development is located in the existing Regent Centre office complex on land currently used as a temporary car park and will comprise of a four storey block for office use with a total floorspace of 11,000m2. Sixteen surface car parking spaces are proposed. 4.6.2 The Regent Centre is currently occupied by up to 1750 staff employed by several large organisations such as Northern Rock, Open University and Labour Party. The developers, Homestretch Properties (a subsidiary of Fordgate Ltd which owns the whole of the Regent Centre site), state that the proposed development has the potential to create 500 jobs. 4.6.3 A number of development proposals have been submitted in the past for a mix of commercial offices and retail facilities. In 1998 permission was granted for a five storey office building comprising of 8,350m2. Another related permission granted consent for additional car parking for 277 spaces as an extension of the multi-storey car park. This is now under construction. In 2004 an application for a seven storey office building was submitted with retail on the ground floor although this was withdrawn last year. 4.6.4 In October 2005 the City Council - Development Control Committee recommended granting planning permission for the development subject to a number of terms and conditions as part of a Section 106 planning agreement. These issues included:
Contributions to additional resident parking zones in the area
Contributions to Central Gosforth Transportation Study and relevant highway works associated with the development
Construction traffic routes
Other ‘on-site’ construction related issues such as external materials, waste disposal, landscaping, surface treatments, tree protection and restriction on construction hours. 40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 29
4.6.5 In line with the Government BVPI target time for the determination of this application, the applicant failed to agree to these issues by 10th November 2005 and the application was deferred. 4.6.6 A subsequent committee report was submitted to the Development Control Committee in February 2006 which set out the results of the discussions with the applicant on the legal agreement and brought forward the recommendation for member’s consideration again. This was again deferred pending the results of the Central Gosforth Transportation Study. 4.6.7 After further negotiations with the developers and consultation with local members the Council has required the developer to provide all predicted parking associated with this development on site. The residents parking scheme will only be triggered for developer funding if their secured Travel Plan fails to deliver to its targets and on street parking in surrounding streets is exacerbated after development is complete.
4.7 SUMMARY 4.7.1 This report has provided an assessment of traffic growth in terms of Government forecasts of background traffic growth and broad details of the forecasting methodology adopted for the STM. 4.7.2 The results of the assessment of TEMPRO growth rates for Newcastle show increasing car usage, declining public transport usage and declining slow modes (walking and cycling). 4.7.3 The report details and summarises the major developments in the Gosforth area and provides a broad assessment of their cumulative impact. Table 4.7.3 below illustrates the net increase in jobs and dwellings that will result from the major developments reviewed in this report. . This assessment does not take account of linked trips, for example trip travelling from new housing to new employment sites. The table has been calculated based on TRICs software using generic development assumptions.
Employment (Jobs) Housing (Dwellings) Year Current Forecast Increase Current Forecast Increase
Newcastle Great Park 2011 1000 8200 7200 360 2500 2140
Regents Point 2008 1750 2250 500
Northern Rock 2009 4500 5500 1000
Net Increase 8700 Net Increase 2140
Table 4.7.3. – Net Increase in Jobs and Dwellings
30 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
4.7.4 The results show that new development will generate a considerable amount of traffic in the Gosforth area in the medium term. These forecasts will be an important consideration in the traffic model development for Stage 1 of the study, for which a VISSIM based model of the Gosforth high street will be built, as well as Stage 2 of the study which may consider a wider area model of Gosforth. These models will be used to test the impact of traffic growth on the highway network and to develop potential solutions.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 31
5 Traffic Model Development
5.1 INTRODUCTION 5.1.1 In order to assess future traffic levels and the impact of potential transport improvements within Gosforth, a traffic simulation model was developed. The micro- simulation software VISSIM has been used to develop the model. This section discusses the methodology undertaken for the development for this model.
5.2 MODEL EXTENTS 5.2.1 Newcastle City Council requested that the model should include the Great North Road from Polwarth Drive/Great North Road junction to the Blue House Roundabout at Jesmond Dene/Grandstand Road/Great North Road, a distance of approximately 5km. The model includes all of its intersecting junctions within the extents, shown in Figure 5.1.
5.3 DATA COLLECTION 5.3.1 In order to determine the traffic patterns within Gosforth the following data was collected:
Junction turning counts;
Site reconnaissance including visual observations and journey times;
CCTV footage;
Controller specifications for signalised junctions within the model extents; and
Bus timetables and routes. 5.3.2 Junction turning counts were conducted on Thursday 30th March 2006 for three hour periods between 07:00 and 10:00 for the morning peak period and between 15:00 and 18:00 for the evening peak period at the following junctions:
Great North Road/Polworth Drive;
Great North Road/Broadway East/Broadway West;
Great North Road/Hollywood Avenue;
Great North Road/Regents Farm Road;
Great North Road/Christon Road;
The High Street/Church Road/Salters Road;
The High Street /Saint Nicholas Avenue;
The High Street/The Grove/Elmfield Road;
Great North Road/Jesmond Dene Road/Grandstand Road. 5.3.3 A site reconnaissance was conducted on Thursday 2nd March 2006. This included assessment of junction movements, pedestrian crossing points, bus stop locations and routes 5.3.4 CCTV footage was provided by NCC at the following junctions:
The High Street/Church Road/Salters Road;
Great North Road/Broadway West/Broadway East; and
32 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 33
Great North Road/Hollywood Avenue.
5.4 NETWORK DEVELOPMENT
Network geometry was coded in and scaled from ordinance survey tiles and matched against site reconnaissance;
Traffic volumes and movements were input using the traffic counts;
Bus services were input using timetable information and site reconnaissance;
Traffic signal information was input using signal controller specifications. Most of the junctions have bus priority. This was coded in using VAP programming and detectors placed in similar locations to reality.
5.5 TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT 5.5.1 Traffic counts were conducted for 3 hour intervals for the morning and evening peak from 0700 to 1000 and from 1500 to 1800 at significant junctions with in the study area. The morning peak was considerably worse than the evening peak, hence Newcastle City Council requested the morning peak be modelled using VISSIM. Some basic assumptions were made for minor junctions that were not surveyed. The difference in traffic flows between junctions surveyed was determined and movements were added or removed using the links between junctions. These were distributed using the attributes of the individual links. For example, if a link served a large residential area, this was given a higher proportion of the “missing” flows than a link serving only a few houses. 5.5.2 As the traffic patterns were represented by junction based counts and not roadside interview surveys the model is termed as a fixed trip matrix model i.e. origin – destinations are fixed. Therefore the model is not a dynamic assignment model and is not able to represent the reassignment of traffic on to alternative routes due to traffic congestion.
5.6 MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION 5.6.1 The model has been calibrated against visual observations and the journey times observed during the site reconnaissance. The traffic counts were used to input the traffic flows within the model and therefore cannot be used to validate the model. However a number of tests were run to ensure that the correct volumes of movements occurred at each of the surveyed junctions. The CCTV footage was used to validate the model. However since this was not for the day of the surveys, the model could not be validated to DMRB standards and the queue lengths were used as a guideline to verify the queues observed on the day of the survey.
5.7 FUTURE MODELLING 5.7.1 The next stage is future year scenario testing which will investigate future traffic levels, in particularly future congestion hot spots. This will include an assessment of future traffic taking into account all committed development and any significant transport improvements proposed with in the Study area.
34 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
5.7.2 In order to determine any reassignment to areas beyond Gosforth it is recommended that a strategic macroscopic model is developed. WSP propose the use of VISUM for this model. This will integrate with the existing VISSIM model as they are derived from the same suite of traffic modelling software. The development of an area- wide model will require a large scale data collection exercise involving road side interviews to determine trip types and origin and destinations as well as automatic traffic counts and potentially additional junction based manual classified counts. This model will provide new traffic flows to insert into the existing VISSIM model to test the proposals on a microscopic level. 5.7.3 Figure 5.7.3 shows a screen shot from the VISSIM model focusing in on the Salters Road/ Church Lane junction on the High Street.
Figure 5.7.3 – VISSIM Screen Shot
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 35
6 The Second Consultation
6.1 INTRODUCTION 6.1.1 A second consultation event was held on September 21st 2006 to report back the initial findings of the study and to capture the public’s views on the best way forward. Again questionnaires were distributed to 14,000 households across Gosforth. Over 350 people attending the consultation event at which the VISSIM model was used to demonstrate existing problems. 6.1.2 Information was presented on the following topics:
Background to the Study
Demographic Characteristics of the Area
Accident Statistics
Existing Transport Proposals
Future Traffic
Suggestions for a Way Forward 6.1.3 A number of issues were presented on the questionnaire form (See Appendix E) and the public were invited to rank priorities based on the premise that there was a need to focus on specific issues in the area. Hence the public were asked to rank the following issues on scale ranging between - not very important to very important - using a scale of 1 to 5;
Investigate improvements to the Gosforth High Street
Investigate ways of reducing traffic on the High Street
Investigate ways to reduce traffic levels across the whole of Gosforth
Investigate a revised area-wide parking strategy to help deal with commuter/visitor parking and encourage better use of existing car parks 6.1.4 Details of respondent’s postcodes were also collected to assess the distribution of responses. See Appendix Ffor distribution of responses.
6.2 DATA PROCESSING 6.2.1 Over a thousand questionnaire forms were returned to the City Council before the cut off date of 22nd October 2006 for the receipt of questionnaires. Additional comments on the questionnaire form were captured by the City Council and a broad cross comparison against comments received as part of the Stage 1 Consultation was carried out. The questionnaire forms were sent out for data capture and coding of the numerical elements of the survey form. This was returned in spreadsheet format for further statistical analysis.
6.3 RESULTS 6.3.1 A statistical analysis of the data was carried out. For each individual topic the analysis looked at the sum of results obtained, the mode, median and average. Table 6.3.1 summarises the results.
36 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
Investigate a Investigate revised area-wide Investigate ways to STATISTICAL Investigate parking strategy ways of reduce ANALYSIS improvements to help deal with reducing traffic to the commuter/visitor traffic on levels Gosforth High parking and the High across the Street encourage better Street whole of use of existing Gosforth car parks
Totals1 3633 2738 4342 4161
Mode2 5.00 1.00 5.00 5.00
Median3 4.00 2.00 5.00 4.00
Mean4 3.29 2.49 3.93 3.77
Rank 3 4 1 2
Table 6.3.1 – Summary of Results Notes:
1. Totals - Sum of rankings 2. Mode - The most frequent or repetitively occurring value 3. Median - The number in the middle of the set values 4. Mean - Average value
6.3.2 An analysis of the correlations between individual topics was also carried out. See table 6.3.2.
Investigate a Investigate revised area- Investigate ways to wide parking Investigate CROSS CORRELATIONS ways of reduce strategy to help improvements reducing traffic deal with to the traffic on levels commuter/visitor Gosforth High the High across the parking and Street Street whole of encourage better Gosforth use of existing car parks Investigate improvements to the Gosforth 1.00 - - - High Street Investigate ways of reducing traffic on the 0.37 1.00 - - High Street Investigate ways to reduce traffic levels 0.17 0.24 1.00 - across the whole of Gosforth Investigate a revised area-wide parking strategy to help deal with commuter/visitor 0.08 0.11 0.26 1.00 parking and encourage better use of existing car parks
Table 6.3.2 – Cross Correlations
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 37
6.4 ANALYSIS OF STATISTAL RESULTS 6.4.1 The results underpinned the responses obtained as part of the first consultation. The need to investigate ways to reduce traffic levels across Gosforth as a whole ranked as the most important issue in the consultation. The need for a revised area-wide parking strategy to help deal with commuter/ visitor parking and encourage better use of existing car parks ranked second amongst the publics views. The need to investigate improvements to the Gosforth High Street and the need to investigate ways of reducing traffic on the High Street ranked third and fourth respectively. 6.4.2 The analysis of cross correlations between the data show a strong correlation between respondees comments on investigating improvements to the High Street and wanting to reduce traffic on the High Street.
6.5 ANALYSIS OF COMMENTS RECEIVED 6.5.1 The second consultation confirmed views obtained from the first consultation that car parking for residents and non-residents and future traffic growth, leading to increased traffic congestion, were the two major areas of concern. The need for improved public transport was also raised as a common issue. 6.5.2 For the second consultation, the need for improvements for cyclists was raised as an important issue. This compares to a limited response in the first consultation. These comments related to the need for more cycle facilities in particular more cycle lanes in the High Street. The potential for Park and Ride from the Great Park area was also raised. See Appendix G for analysis of comments.
38 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102
7 The Way Forward
7.1.1 The Stage 1 Study has identified a number of small scale traffic management and traffic engineering issues in the area. These include calls for traffic calming, control of rat running through residential areas and ‘high’ vehicle speeds in certain areas. Other issues highlighted were the need for improved lining and signing as well as calls for new pedestrian crossings. It is proposed that these issues are passed on to the Newcastle City Council - Area Traffic Management Teams for further consideration and investigation taking into consideration existing priorities and available resources. 7.1.2 Since the commissioning of the study a number of schemes have been progressed which will alleviate some of the problems highlighted in the consultations, for example:
Great North Road/ Broadway Roundabout - improvements to the junction were designed and approved and the scheme was implemented in Autumn 2006.
Hedley Farm 20mph Zone - The Hedley Farm area lies between Salters Road, Regent Centre and Brunton Park Estate. This scheme has been issued for construction over the next few months.
Area Wide Advisory 20mph Zones - A number of 20mph zone schemes have been implemented in the Gosforth area covering a large proportion of the problem areas highlighted in the study. They cover the Hollywood Avenue area and west Gosforth (from Salters Lane to Town Moor between High Street and Kenton Road), including Elmfield Road. These areas were highlighted in the consultation as particular problem areas for speeding.
Implementation of traffic management and traffic calming measures on The Grove and Moor Road North.
North Avenue Resident Parking Zone – scheme progressed to draft order stage.
Coxlodge Resident Parking Zone – scheme due to be re-consulted on with local residents due to minor amendments. 7.1.3 One scheme was put on hold, pending the outcome of the transport study:
Great North Road/ Hollywood Avenue Junction - initial design work was undertaken for junction improvements at this location with a view to full signalisation. The alternative to full signalisation would be to re-design the junction as a more conventional four arm roundabout junction. This would involve considerable change to the existing road layout and carriageway alignment. The development of the scheme was put on hold to take account of this study. In line with the findings of the study and the need for safety improvements at the junction, it is recommended that the scheme is progressed. Developer contributions are available to part fund the scheme. 7.1.4 The majority of comments concerned parking issues and concern over increasing future levels of traffic in the area as well as improvements to existing junctions.
40521102 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 39
7.1.5 It is proposed that the next stage of the study should investigate a revised area wide parking strategy for Gosforth to include resident parking, commuter parking and maximising the use of existing off street car parking, for example, the shopping centre roof top car park. This ties in with a city-wide review of residential car parking. As part of this review, the Gosforth area, associated with proposed residential parking schemes as part of the expansion of major developments, such as Northern Rock, should be treated as a priority. 7.1.6 A base year VISSIM model has been built to represent current traffic conditions. The study has assessed the likely level of traffic growth in the area associated with both natural traffic growth and the impact of new development. The model should now be used to test traffic impacts of traffic growth levels on the operation of Great North Road. The model will be used to test a number of scenarios based on different levels of intervention. 7.1.7 Linked with the above there is a need to investigate the effects of increased traffic levels across Gosforth as a whole, particularly the reassignment of traffic, due to congestion, on local roads. This could be investigated through the development of a macro-simulation model of the area. This would necessitate a wide spread data collection exercise to provide accurate and up to date picture of travel patterns in the area. 7.1.8 The study identified the importance of Gosforth as a local employment centre. The study also identified a significant proportion of comments relating to the need of improved public transport in the area. It is proposed that the next stage of the study should consider an integrated transport strategy for the area focusing on public transport accessibility for the existing and proposed major development. This would assist major employers in the local area with the development and implementation of work based travel plans. 7.1.9 Linked with the above, the potential for a Business Improvement District (BID) could be investigated. BIDs are an investment in the local trading environment through the provision of added value services including transport improvements. BIDs are funded by local businesses through a levy on their rates bill, therefore all beneficiaries pay. Businesses identify the area and the issues of concern and put together a proposal which should include delivery guarantees, performance indicators and a management structure. 7.1.10 Appendix H contains a summary action plan and provides illustrative estimates of capital/ revenue costs and timescales to take various elements of work forward to deliver transport improvements in Gosforth.
40 Gosforth Transport Study - Summary Report 40521102