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Life Unpercepted VARIANCES: Life Unpercepted. Against Teleological Entrenchment in Evolution and Design Alike —Discussion of teleology in the problem of curatorial strategies for representational problems in Taleb, N. M., Read, R., Douady, R., Norman, J., & Bar-Yam, Y. (2014) The Precautionary Principle: fragility and black swans from policy actions —and a deconstruction of the Neo-Darwinian social constructions teleologically assumed in parts therein. by Oleksiy Teselkin Submitted to OCAD University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation. Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Dec 2018 © Oleksiy Teselkin, 2018 except as otherwise noted I�f̶ ̶t̶h̶ e̶ n̶ ̶w̶ h̶ a̶ t̶ ̶c̶o̶ m̶ e̶ s̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶ m̶ ̶a̶ r̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶f̶o̶ r̶ t̶̶ h̶ e̶ ̶s̶a̶ k̶ e̶ ̶o̶ f̶ ̶s̶o̶ m̶ e̶ t̶h̶ i̶n̶ g̶ ,̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶c̶l̶e̶ a̶ r̶ t̶̶ h̶ a̶ t̶ w̶̶ h̶ a̶ t̶ ̶c̶o̶ m̶ e̶ s ̶f̶r̶o̶ m̶ ̶n̶ a̶ t̶u̶ r̶e̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ o̶ . — Aristotle, Physics, II 8. “And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music.” — Friedrich Nietzsche “The present work therefore formulates a system, called non-aristotelian, which is based on the complete rejection of identity and its derivatives, and shows what very simple yet powerful structural factors of sanity can be found in science.” — Alfred Korzybski “The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is suicide.” — Daniel Yankelovich on McNamara fallacy ii Author's Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this MRP. This is a true copy of the MRP, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I authorize OCAD University to lend this MRP to other institutions or individuals for the purpose of scholarly research. I understand that my MRP may be made electronically available to the public. I further authorize OCAD University to reproduce this MRP by photocopying or by other means, in total or in part, at the request of other institutions or individuals for the purpose of scholarly research. Signature __________________________________________________ Apr 19, 2019 iii Abstract In this work of foresight, I communicated my perception of Taleb's policy paper and the Black Swan problem discussed in it. To this effect, I: 1. Re-conceptualized the concept of "foresight,” non-teleologically, and its “method”; 2. Revived Empedocles’ non-teleological philosophy of evolution with modern scientific data; 3. Located the real GMO safety problem in (you guessed it) teleology: in the suppression of dissent within institutions under a seeming assumption of knowing what waste is. Keywords: the problem of induction, GMO, safety, evolution, horizontal gene transfer, innovation, innovators, imagination, opinion spread, public mistrust, the expert problem, falsification, aging, fragility, fragilizing, corruption, complexity, cooperation, waste, networks, systems, probability, emergence, Biosphere, Noosphere, cybernetics, policy, design, risk, strategy, foresight, genetic engineering, social constructionism, Semmelweis reflex, Neo- Darwinism, Protestant work ethics, fear of loss, fear of missing out, generation, efficiency, optimization, precaution, precautionary principle, induction, inclusion, dissent, groupthink, deduction, retroduction, cognition, cognitive cycle, propagation, complex systems engineering, monopoly, monoculture, decision-making, Moravec's paradox, Korzybski, Vernadsky, Nietzsche, Taleb, Galam, Hume, Lem, Margulis, general semantics, general systems theory, non-Aristotelian, time binding, networks, researchers, peer review iv Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to my principal advisor, Alexander Manu, Researchers.One co-founder Harry D. Crane, former committee members Jayar La Fontaine and Michele Mastroeni, and my first (unofficial) pedagogue Vitaliy Kordyum (who showed me long time ago how to think and not what to think) --- and to everybody who inspired my attempts at transformational thinking and helped with the creation and development of this work. Especially to my friend and collaborator Brian Wang. v Dedication This work is dedicated: —in the memory of Robert Nozick (1938-2002), who, despite coming from the Analytic tradition, possessed a Non-Analytic charity to allow the room for new ideas to grow. —In the memory of Lynn Margulis (1938-2011), one of the true innovators who had suffered for her innovative thinking, like Copernicus, Semmelweis, or Turing before her. With an amazing foresight, 50 years ago Margulis argued against the sprawling religious persuasion of Anglo-Saxon Biology, whose proponents still "wallow in their zoological, capitalistic, competitive, cost-benefit interpretation of Darwin – having mistaken him ... Neo-Darwinism, which insists on [the slow accrual of mutations by gene-level natural selection as a cause for evolutionary innovation], is in a complete funk.” (Sagan, 1967). Margulis’ work had been accepted only partially, and public consciousness had it entered not at all. Shall it? vi Table of Contents Zooming in: Foresight as Perception Variances and the “method” of inquiry 1 Chapter 1: Evolution starts with Variances 26 Chapter 2: Innovation starts with Variances 51 1. Don’t be afraid of Variances in Biological life 52 2. The Human Factor: Suppression of Variances in Social life 67 Life as Art: Positioning oneself to make best use of Variances 86 Zooming out: Fixing Social Variances vs getting fixed Biospherically 96 Appendix A: Less Abstracted Abstract 101 Appendix B: The View of Evolution That Excludes The Very Evolution It Was Meant to Describe, and a More Adaptive Paradigm 103 Works Consulted 105 vii List of Figures and Illustrations Fig. 1. A natural order of evaluation 9 Fig. 2. Combining different parts for evolutionary creativity 41 Fig. 3. Genome size enigma 45 Fig. 4. Teleology prevents us from making sense of ourselves and the world. 89 Fig. 5. In the First Circle: the pathological order of evaluation and consequent aging from deductive looping without Foresight 92 Fig. 6. The Bio-, the Noo,- and the Bureaucrosphere 98 viii Zooming in: Foresight as Perception Variances and the “method” of inquiry A serious view of innovation is a philosophical view of change. “Social innovation,” for example, used to be known as “political philosophy.” And so on. To avoid the fate of Semmelweis, who infamously had the right foresight but no available theory to legitimize it by giving it a veneer of respectability, I will first of all state that this work and the very problem discussed in it (not a problem for some) are conceived within a representational theory of truth and a non-Aristotelian epistemology. Perception creates one’s reality. Foresight is all the possible ways to perceive. The normal state of technology is in it being broken. And when things break, suddenly, these previously simple systems become very, very complex, and our previous also simple perceptions, that were reflecting only a tiny fragment of the reality (despite us believing otherwise) become not enough. Our worldview must have been having blind spots all the time, of course, but up to a point --- and therein lies the danger --- this was unknown to us. The first part of this work will provide a non-teleological grounding in the biology behind the construction of “GMOs” (Chapter 1) and a systemic risk management objection to their development. The remainder of this work (Chapter 2) will be devoted to (also non-teleological) foresight --- suggesting a path forward, by way of new interpretations of dreams, in an artistic, rather than a forecasting, Excel-spreadsheet sense. I will be taking a trans-disciplinary, philosophically synthetic approach, not ignoring the science, but at the same time not limiting myself to it. We will explore the intersection of science, including its social and philosophical issues, and psychology, organizational and industrial. And call our new worldview arrival an exercise of “foresight.” This work aims to correct some fears in technology management that have no basis in fact, for a practical reason that our reluctance to acknowledge the role of chance when trying to control outcomes in the world can actually decrease our ability to control these very same outcomes. We can learn a lot from systems that survived --- for a very long time --- and perhaps try to mimic them. But it will be easier to learn what not to do --- how active closed-minded thinking can cost us. Throughout this work, we will be trying to become aware of unexpected ways to age, with aging (another simple yet elusive word) defined here generally, as corruption, progressive internal (i.e, self-) incompatibility or external misfit in both biological and non- biological systems. Ontology of “Foresight” and my approach We can paraphrase Roger Shepard’s title in Dupré, 1987 and call innovation a mesh between Operation of the Mind and Regularities of the World. As the Harvard philosopher Robert Nozick1 points out in his Invariances (2001, p.143), foresight- capable, mildly schizophrenic people lack sensory filters for the material that all people encounter (but not all of them see). Korzybski, too, wrote what became a classic, that it “takes a good ‘mind’ to be ‘insane” (2010, p.105). In this is the challenge and opportunity of foresight. More of a challenge, since such people are traditionally ostracized by the society and are, more or less directly, left to die. At every stage of the perception-action cycle, integration must happen, and nonintegrable bits are not passed along further. This is called “selection” (as if there were an agent doing this), and it is an unfortunate principle that may be operating everywhere from germ cells to minds to ideas to universes, regardless of our psychological nonacceptance of it (see Nozick, 2001, p.165).
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