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Threat Assessment and Its Perils an Interview with Cecil D Issue 83, 4th Quarter 2016 Threat Assessment and Its Perils An Interview with Cecil D. Haney Commentary on JOINT FORCE QUARTERL Chinese Military Reforms Y ISSUE EIGHTY -THREE, 4 TH QUARTER 2016 Joint Force Quarterly Founded in 1993 • Vol. 83, 4th Quarter 2016 http://ndupress.ndu.edu Gen Joseph F. Dunford, Jr., USMC, Publisher MajGen Frederick M. Padilla, USMC, President, NDU Editor in Chief Col William T. Eliason, USAF (Ret.), Ph.D. Executive Editor Jeffrey D. Smotherman, Ph.D. Production Editor John J. Church, D.M.A. Internet Publications Editor Joanna E. Seich Book Review Editor Dr. Frank G. Hoffman Art Director Marco Marchegiani, U.S. Government Printing Office Advisory Committee COL Michael S. Bell, USA (Ret.), Ph.D./College of International Security Affairs; Brig Gen Christopher A. Coffelt, USAF/ Air War College; Col David J. Eskelund, USMC/Marine Corps War College; COL (P) Paul H. Fredenburgh III, USA/Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy; Brig Gen Darren E. Hartford, USAF/National War College; Brig Gen (Sel) Brian E. Hastings, USAF/Air Command and Staff College; RADM P. Gardner Howe III/U.S. Naval War College; LTG Michael D. Lundy, USA/U.S. Army Command and General Staff College; LTG William C. Mayville, Jr., USA/The Joint Staff; Col William McCollough, USMC/Marine Corps Command and Staff College; MG William E. Rapp, USA/U.S. Army War College; RDML Jeffrey Ruth/Joint Forces Staff College; VADM Kevin D. Scott/The Joint Staff Editorial Board Richard K. Betts/Columbia University; Stephen D. Chiabotti/ School of Advanced Air and Space Studies; Eliot A. Cohen/The Johns Hopkins University; COL Joseph J. Collins, USA (Ret.)/ National War College; Mark J. Conversino/Air War College; Thomas P. Ehrhard/Office of the Secretary of Defense; Aaron L. Friedberg/Princeton University; Bryon Greenwald/Joint Forces Staff College; Col Thomas C. Greenwood, USMC (Ret.)/Office of the Secretary of Defense; Douglas N. Hime/Naval War College; Mark H. Jacobsen/Marine Corps Command and Staff College; Col Jerome M. Lynes, USMC (Ret.)/The Joint Staff; Kathleen Mahoney-Norris/Air Command and Staff College; Thomas L. McNaugher/Georgetown University; Col Mark Pizzo, USMC (Ret.)/ National War College; James A. Schear/Office of the Secretary of Defense; LtGen Bernard E. Trainor, USMC (Ret.) Printed in St. Louis, Missouri, by Cover 2 images (top to bottom): Captain Brittny Barney, 1st Helicopter Squadron, performs preflight checks of equipment inside UH-1N Huey at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, August 3, 2016 (U.S. Air Force/Philip Bryant); Sailors secure waist catapults after launching aircraft on flight deck aboard USS Carl Vinson, under way in the Arabian Gulf, March 5, 2012 (U.S. Navy/George M. Bell); Marine with 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit surveys San Clemente Island in search of landing zone during Amphibious Squadron–Marine Expeditionary Unit Integration, prior to deployment to U.S. Pacific and U.S. Central Commands’ areas of operations, July 16, 2016 (U.S. Marine Corps/Robert B. Brown) About the Cover In this Issue U.S. Army 1st Lieutenant Kelly Elmlinger, Warrior Transition Battalion, Fort Sam Houston, Texas, Dialogue swims preliminary race during 2014 2 From the Chairman Warrior Games at U.S. Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, Colorado, September 30, 2014. More Forum than 200 wounded, ill, and injured 4 Executive Summary Servicemembers and veterans participated in the 2014 Warrior 6 Global Power Distribution and Games, an annual event featuring Warfighting in the 21st Century Paralympic-style competitions (U.S. By John R. Benedict, Jr. Army/Ronda Robb) 13 Fast Followers, Learning Machines, and the Third Joint Force Quarterly is published by the National Offset Strategy Features Defense University Press for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. JFQ is the Chairman’s flagship By Brent D. Sadler 66 An Interview with Cecil D. Haney joint military and security studies journal designed to 75 Global Mental Health: inform members of the U.S. Armed Forces, allies, and 19 Predicting the Proliferation other partners on joint and integrated operations; of Cyber Weapons Optimizing Uniformed national security policy and strategy; efforts to combat Services Roles terrorism; homeland security; and developments in into Small States training and joint professional military education to By Brian W. Flynn, Joshua C. transform America’s military and security apparatus By Daniel Hughes and Morganstein, Robert J. Ursano, to meet tomorrow’s challenges better while protecting Andrew M. Colarik Darrel A. Regier, James C. freedom today. All published articles have been vetted through a peer-review process and cleared by the 27 The Danger of False Peril: West, Gary H. Wynn, David M. Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review. Benedek, and Carol S. Fullerton Avoiding Threat Inflation NDU Press is the National Defense University’s cross-component, professional military and academic By Andrew Stigler 83 Applying Smart Power via publishing house. Global Health Engagement The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations By Sebastian Kevany expressed or implied within are those of the JPME Today contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views and Michael Baker of the Department of Defense or any other agency of 34 Wargaming the Third the Federal Government. Offset Strategy 91 NATO Nouvelle: Everything Submissions and Communications JFQ welcomes submission of scholarly, independent By Paul Norwood and Old Is New Again research from members of the Armed Forces, Benjamin Jensen By G. Alexander Crowther security policymakers and shapers, defense analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United 40 I Liked Ike . Whence Comes States and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to ScholarOne, available at https://mc04. Another? Why PME Needs a Recall manuscriptcentral.com/ndupress. Or write to: Congressional Advocate 99 Fighting with Friends: Editor, Joint Force Quarterly By John T. Kuehn Coalition Warfare in Korean NDU Press 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 2504) Waters, 1950–1953 Fort Lesley J. McNair By Corbin Williamson Washington, DC 20319 Commentary Telephone: (202) 685-4220/DSN 325 44 Is the Chinese Army the Real Email: [email protected] Winner in PLA Reforms? Book Reviews JFQ online: www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jfq/jfq.htm th By Phillip C. Saunders and John Chen 4 Quarter, October 2016 105 A Passion for Leadership ISSN 1070-0692 Reviewed by Christopher J. Lamb 49 China’s Military Reforms: An Optimistic Take 107 Carnage and Connectivity By Michael S. Chase and Reviewed by Jeffrey Meiser Jeffrey Engstrom 108 Assessing War 53 Chinese Military Reforms: Reviewed by Jonathan Schroden A Pessimistic Take By Roger Cliff Joint Doctrine 57 PLA Reforms and China’s 109 Let’s Fix or Kill the Nuclear Forces Center of Gravity By David C. Logan By Dale C. Eikmeier 63 What Do China’s Military 116 Joint Doctrine Update Reforms Mean for Taiwan? By Joel Wuthnow Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL students participate in Surf Passage as part of first phase of SEAL training (U.S. Navy/Michael Russell) From the Chairman Strategic Challenges and Implications have previously written in this Joint Readiness responsiveness, flexibility, and resiliency column to share with you the areas One of my priorities is joint readi- is ensuring that our men and women I where I am devoting my time and ness, which, from my perspective, never enter a fair fight. focus: joint readiness, joint warfighting is an ongoing engagement with the capability, and the development of President and Secretary of Defense Strategic Challenges leaders for the future. I have also shared to provide timely and viable military Many of you have heard me talk about with you my thoughts regarding the options that, in the event of a crisis five strategic challenges: the four imperative for the Joint Force to remain or contingency, are responsive to the potential state competitors of Russia, focused on and responsive to the desired policy endstate objectives of the China, Iran, and North Korea, and the current National Command Authority. National Command Authority. I also nonstate challenge of violent extremist That responsiveness underpins healthy consider flexibility (transitioning from organizations. We colloquially refer to civil-military relations and is the hall- one crisis or contingency to another these five challenges as the 4+1. But mark of the Profession of Arms. I now across the range of military options) these challenges cannot be the only ones write to share with you how we are and resiliency (sustaining what the we plan against. I am humble about our channeling these priorities and profes- Joint Force is doing) as part of joint ability to predict the future, so I use the sional focus into execution. readiness. Underlining the principles of 4+1 as a planning construct. Bench- 2 Dialogue / From the Chairman JFQ 83, 4th Quarter 2016 marking the Joint Force against one of continue to advance their interests at the information on a routine basis so they these challenges or two of these state qualitative and quantitative expense of can have real-time ability to see the challenges simultaneously, along with our own. fight; to visualize in time and space the violent extremism, helps inform our The third implication, and to me one opportunities to seize the initiative; and assessment of the current inventory of of the most significant, is that we have a to better identify potential opportunity current joint capabilities and capacities. mandate to keep pace with the character costs. Over time, as we successfully help Looking at the trajectory of capability of war in the 21st century. While the the Secretary of Defense to see the Joint development in the context of the 4+1 nature of war—the violent clash of po- Force better, it will inform the assess- also informs priorities for joint capability litical will—has not changed, we should ment process to make recommendations development.
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