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Portugal Real Estate Market Report 1St Semester 2019 Portugal Real Estate Market Report

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Portugal Real Estate Market Report 1St Semester 2019 Portugal Real Estate Market Report Portugal Real Estate Market Report 1st Semester 2019 Portugal Real Estate Market Report Economy In 2019, the increase in private The gradual decline in the unemployment Throughout the year 2019, consumption will be linked to the favorable rate, which by 2020 is estimated to reach 5.7%, Portugal will maintain its evolution of disposable income of households, together with a low population growth, will expansion trajectory, albeit justified by the favorable evolution of have a decisive influence on the productivity employment and nominal wages. levels achieved, which are fundamental to to a lower rhyme compared In May 2019, the unemployment rate maintaining the competitiveness of the to the last years stood at 6.6%. Portuguese economy. It should be noted that the Portuguese At the beginning of 2019, the Portuguese economy, despite successfully passing through economy experienced a slight acceleration in a period of recession and now enjoying a more its expansion trajectory, registering a growth of favorable international context, continues 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019. to present some structural challenges that The projections advanced by the Bank of influence its growth potential. Portugal foresee a real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2019, with the evolution of Portuguese economic activity based on the growth of Macroeconomic 2019 2020 2021 2018 private consumption, the dynamism of Gross projections (f) (f) (f) Fixed Capital Formation and the increase in GDP 2.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% exports, despite the downward revision of external demand. Inflation 1.2% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% Also, financing conditions should remain 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.7% favorable for all sectors of the economy Private Consumption and external demand should grow on average Public Consumption 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% below 3%. Exports 3.6% 4.5% 3.1% 3.4% Imports 4.9% 8.0% 4.3% 4.4% Employment 2.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% Unemployment rate 7.0% 6.3% 5.7% 5.3% (f) forecast Source Bank of Portugal Unemployment Rate 20 18 17 16 17 17.3 16 14 16.2 15.4 15.4 14.8 12 14.4 13.5 13.6 13.4 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.3 % 10 11.3 10.9 10.5 8 9.8 9.2 8.8 8.1 7 7.1 6 7.6 6.7 6.6 4 6.5 2 0 May 2017 May May 2012 May May 2015 May May 2013 May May 2018 May May 2019 May May 2016 May May 2014 May August 2017 August August 2012 August August 2015 August August 2013 August August 2018 August August 2016 August August 2014 August February 2017 February February 2015 February February 2013 February February 2018 February February 2019 February February 2016 February February 2014 February November 2017 November November 2012 November November 2015 November November 2013 November November 2018 November November 2016 November November 2014 November * (Seasonally adjusted -%) of the active population aged 15-74 years by age group; Monthly Source INE 3 Portugal Real Estate Market Report Portugal Real Estate Market Report Vacancy rate by market zone 25.00% Prime Zone CBD Zone Emerging Office Zone Secondary Zone Parque das Nações Western Corridor 20.00% Offices 15.00% 12.08% 10.00% At the end of the first half of 2019, the Lisbon Vacancy Rate A12 office market totaled 110,100 sq.m of take-up, Lisbon Office Market VASCO corresponding to 97 operations. This result, PARQUE CRIL DA GAMA 5.00% DAS BRIDGE which represents an increase of 27% compared 3.27% NAÇÕES to the first half of 2018, allows us to foresee a 3.83% IC16 IP7 more exciting year-end compared to forecasts 1.41% AIRPORT 0.00% 0.35% GARE DO drawn at the beginning of the year, which ORIENTE should exceed 170,000 sq.m, but should not 1º half 2015 1º half 2016 1º half 2017 1º half 2018 1º half 2019 surpass the 200,000 sq.m. mark. Source Savills Research 2ª CIRCULAR 24% of the operations registered in the first 5.23% BENFICA six months of the year concerned areas above CHELAS 1,000 sq.m, mostly centered on the Parque ENTRECAMPOS das Nações, Prime Zone and Emerging Office STATION IC19 Zone areas. SETE RIOS STATION It should be noted that the Parque das Best performing Activity Sectors Nações zone and the Prime Zone were the best Although the vacancy rate is currently below MONSANTO L U N117 S - performing market zones with 26,840 sq.m and 6%, the market shows that it will be able to E T CAMPOLIDE R A5 O 24,937 sq.m respectively. It is important to note stay above the average take-up of the last five WESTERN N CORRIDOR O that for the performance balance of the Parque years (158,000 sq.m). IX E AMOREIRAS das Nações area, the purchase of a 17,400 sq.m The Secondary Zone, which comprises SANTA turnkey office project by the AGEAS Portugal the riverside and historical area of Lisbon, ESTRELA APOLÓNIA Prime CBD BAIXA STATION Group accounted for 65% of the total. GLA delimited by the Av. Infante Santo and Av. 24 CRIL CHIADO CBD occupied in this market area. de Julho axes, as well as the Parque das Nações BUsiness CONSULTANTS FINANCIAL A2 CAIS DO SODRÉ RESTELO CAIS DO STATION Emerging Office Zone In the Prime Zone, the market had the area, are the areas with a practically zero SERVICES: AND LAWYERS: SERVICES: ALCÂNTARA SODRÉ Secondary Office Zone leasing operations of the newly built Torre vacancy rate, resulting from the lack of entry of "Parque das Nações" da Cidade located at Fontes Pereira de Melo new speculative projects. 28,259 24,664 24,606 BELÉM TOWER Avenue 41, by the multinational consultant During the first half of 2019, 48 operations sq.m sq.m sq.m Western Corridor 25 DE ABRIL BRIDGE KPMG (9,950 sq.m) and the Law Firm PLMJ were due to relocations, accounting for a total of Zone 7 (8,306 sq.m) that occupied all the office space 72,659 sq.m, and another 31 operations related in this emblematic project. to area expansion decisions, totaling 27,157 sq.m. By the end of the year 2019, approximately 22,000 sq.m should be completed spread over 5 office building projects located in the Prime, Market Zone Take-Up 5 Years Evolution CBD and Western Corridor Zones. Pipeline 2019 – 2021 40 Between 2020-2021 will reach approximately 120,000 153,000 sq.m heavily concentrated in the 1st Semester 2015 1st Semester 2016 1st Semester 2017 106,170 Parque das Nações area, marked by innovation 1st Semester 2018 1st Semester 2019 MARKET TOTAL 100,000 1ST SEMESTER 2018 and modernity that will contribute to underline the technological nature of this market area, 26,840 such as the EXEO and K-Tower projects. 24,937 86,819 80,000 23,229 Regarding office lease prices and forecasts 22,185 sq.m. 21,338 for the next 6 months, prime rent closed the 18,785 20 18,753 17,616 semester at € 22 / sq.m / month, with relative 60,000 sq.m. 15,926 16,032 15,610 15,398 14,840 14,855 MARKET TOTAL price stability observing. 14,285 13,808 13,682 ST 12,577 12,834 1 SEMESTER 2019 Until the end of 2019, rents are expected to sq.m. (thousands) 40,000 9,867 8,765 8,766 remain stable, but there is room for general 31,300 7,163 market increases of around 5%, justified by 5,692 110,069 21,920 4,462 4,498 4,148 4,246 4,275 sq.m. the vacancy rates at minimum values and high 20,000 2,436 2,446 2,309 1,734 demand. This upward pressure will be justified 0 0 0 not only by the lack of available space, but also 0 Prime CBD Emerging Secondary Parque Western Other by the entry of new planned projects that will Zone Zone Office Zone Zone das Nações Corridor zones raise the price range. 2019 2020 2021 Source Savills Research Source Savills Research 4 5 Portugal Real Estate Market Report Portugal Real Estate Market Report Oporto Offices Market Prime rents by market zone In the first half of 2019, Oporto office A28 market accounted for a total of 22,552 sq.m of A41 €25.00 FRANCISCO SÁ CARNEIRO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT take-up, which represents a sharp decrease of N107 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 N107 45% over the same period of 2018. The ZEP zone concentrated the largest N13 €20.00 contracted GLA in a total of 8,550 sq.m and PERAFITA €22.00 €22.00 MAIA €21.00 was elected by a renowned financial services A3 €20.50 company to implement its new premises in the €15.00 €18.00 €18.00 €18.00 €18.00 €18.00 Greater Porto market, totaling 4,000 sq.m. MAR €17.00 €17.00 €17.00 €17.00 SHOPPING In total, Oporto office market registered A4 €16.00 €16.00 €16.00 €16.00 €16.00 €15.47 €14.50 €14.50 a total of 28 operations, of which 53% was A4 €14.00 €13.50 €10.00 €13.50 EXPONOR €/sq.m/month directed to operations below 300 sq.m. VIA Oporto continues to assert itself as a city A28 NORTE N105 of business destination, integrating the list of €5.00 VIA preferred locations of multinationals wishing RÁPIDA PORTO DE LEIXÕES CIRCUNVALAÇÃO to expand their activity in Portugal.
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