Protests in Lebanon: The Rebirth of the Lebanese Unity November 19, 2019

Protests in Lebanon: The Rebirth deteriorating for decades. They are the escalation of people’s steadily growing grievances against the ruling of the Lebanese Unity elite that has “amassed wealth for decades but has done little to fix a crumbling economy and dilapidated Jana Samadovái infrastructure.”3 Annotation On the night of October 14, Lebanon was hit by On October 17, 2019, spontaneous and peaceful protests extensive wilderness fires described “as the country’s erupted all over Lebanon demanding the resignation of its worst wildfire event in decades.”4 The disaster sparked political class. As protests quickly spread throughout the a wave of criticism over the government’s response, country, tens of thousands of people united in Beirut, Tripoli, its ineptitude to handle the crisis and a new instance Zahlé, Nabatieh, Jal el-Dib, Tyre, Sidon, Batroun, Byblos and of alleged corruption. In fact, the country has received Baalbek, under the Lebanese flag and anthem instead of the three firefighting helicopters as a donation in previous political parties’ emblems and chants. The people gathered years, but the government failed to fund their regardless of religious affiliations to stand against the politicians maintenance, thus preventing their use during the who, in their eyes, have long been dividing them and stripping fires.5 In the days that followed, political figures them of rights and well-being. As of November 19, the completely neglected to address the issue that sparked demonstrations are still not waning off despite the resignation of public outcry. On the contrary, the government spoke the PM Saad al-Hariri and his government and promises of only about levying new taxes, including those targeting economic, political and social reforms. widely used internet communication applications and Protests Erupt in Lebanon social media platforms, such as WhatsApp (a $0.20 An unprecedented unity, long overshadowed by daily charge on voice calls through WhatsApp was political and religious divisions endorsed by politics, introduced).6 only encouraged more people to join the protests and The government’s inadequate response to the fires made them more resilient due to a wider social and coinciding with the austerity measures, triggered the civil base. The youth and students, joined by people mass protests on October 17.7 Demonstrations from various professions, backgrounds and social pushed the government into agreeing on political status, chant “Kellon Yaani Kellon” (All of them reforms in the record time of 72 hours compared to means all of them), targeting not only the whole ruling the eight8 months it took the PM just to form that elite with no exceptions, including Hezbollah, but also government. The refusal of the reforms, however, led the Lebanese political system as such. Apart from to the resignation of the government on October 29. property destruction, the protests have been short of major violence for the most part, with demonstrators The protests have no apparent leaders, which may be clashing several times with the army or the police for perceived as a downside since they do not offer an different reasons.1 On occasion, some political alternative leadership to the current elite which, partisans, such as Hezbollah supporters, attacked according to the demonstrators, is to blame for the protesters and ransacked demonstration sites in country’s issues and should be removed from power. Beirut.2 Thus, the question is whether there is going to be a genuine elite change or a mere reshuffle. So far, The demonstrations should not come as a surprise demonstrators have refused to moderate their since major aspects of the public life have been i Jana Samadová currently pursues her master’s degree in International Security Studies at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic. E- mail: [email protected].

Prague Centre for Middle East Relations Policy Paper vol. 1 no. 2 November 19, 2019

uncompromising stance and continue with rejecting The tax reforms the government had introduced prior any solutions that would keep the same people in to the protests were precisely aiming at reducing the power. deficit but only to less than 9% of the GDP in 2019.13 This argument alone undermines the credibility of al- The Reaction of the Political Elite Hariri’s reform plan, introduced hastily under the The PM Saad al-Hariri was among the first to react. pressure of the masses.14 On October 18, he addressed the nation acknowledging the protests and the popular anger As for the presidency, it took Michel Aoun a week to building up throughout the years. He, however, address the protestors. On October 24, he praised his shifted the blame to his rivals accusing them of stalling achievements in fighting corruption and sectarianism and obstructing his reforms to decrease the budget while reassuring the nation of his continuous deficit, tackle electricity shortages, overhaul the commitment to anti-corruption measures and political system including the outdated laws from the condemned ‘other’ politicians for corruption and 1960s and revive the economic growth of the country. money embezzlement. He hinted that he does not These reforms were supposed to pave the way for plan to step down and the regime would not be foreign donor pledges and investments. Therefore, al- changed in the streets, but through constitutional Hariri asked his government, partners and rivals alike, institutions.15 Aoun’s speech was met with disdain and to agree on a reform package within a 72-hours his son-in-law, the now former minister of foreign deadline, suggesting that he might otherwise resign.9 affairs Gebran Bassil, remained one of the main targets of the protests.16 He re-appeared on October On October 21, al-Hariri announced the reform plan 31, with another pre-recorded speech agreed on by the government. It included a 2020 commemorating the end of the first half of his term, budget with a 0,6% deficit; no new taxes imposed; again listing his achievements.17 President Aoun then increased taxation on banks that would contribute addressed the protesters calling for the establishment with $3.3 billion to the ‘near-zero’ budget deficit; a of a new technocratic government without sectarian- 50% salary cut of current and former presidents, and political affiliation-based allocation of posts. He ministers and MPs; the abolishment of several identified the previous power-sharing practices as the government institutions (such as the Ministry of main cause of failure of many state projects.18 In his Information); budget cuts for other state agencies latest appearance on November 12, Aoun expressed, such as the Fund for Reconstruction and among other comments, that “if the people do not Development by 70%; reducing the electricity deficit; find decent leaders in power, let them immigrate,” the endorsement of insurance pension and poverty- further fuelling public outcry prompting the protesters support plans; or a law to restore stolen, misused or to block key roads throughout the country.19 corrupted funds.10 Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, spoke three However, the reform plan was rejected by the times, addressing the demonstrations. He backed al- protesters and al-Hariri resigned on October 29. As Hariri’s reforms package, refusing the fall of the much as this plan looked promising while offering presidency nor the holding of early elections, and comprehensive measures, its cornerstone - a budget warned the protesters from the risk of pushing the with 0,6% deficit - was hardly feasible in the short country into chaos and potentially a civil war. term. Such deficit equals to $340 million (the amount 11 According to Nasrallah, the government’s resignation is calculated from the $57 billion GDP in 2018). In would create a power vacuum that could possibly lead contrast, in 2018, the deficit amounted to $6,5 billion 12 the country into “civil unrest similar to what’s (11,5% of the GDP in 2018). Moreover, the happening in the region,” arguably referring government claimed to be able to shrink the deficit specifically to recent developments in Iraq.20 without more taxation falling directly on the citizens.

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Hezbollah is perceived as the most powerful force in government does not provide retirees from the private Lebanon since it emerged, with is partners, as a major sector with social security. This leads to a large portion winner in the parliamentary elections of 2018.21 Hence, of the population with low income making them the protests and an interim political vacuum would susceptible to falling into poverty.25 negatively affect Hezbollah, already put in the In turn, salaries of the Lebanese president, ministers spotlight by being an Iranian proxy and having arms and MPs are among the highest in the world compared outside of state structure. to the minimum wage in the country.26 Additionally, The Lebanese Forces led by Samir Geagea announced they cash in on various benefits, dispensations and on the onset of demonstrations, already on October provisions. For instance, MPs no longer in office keep 19, its withdrawal from the government citing lack of receiving remuneration ranging from 55 to 75% of confidence in the current cabinet.22 Whether this was their former salaries according to the number of terms an attempt to quickly appeal to the protesters or a served. Their families keep collecting the money even well-thought strategy to avoid the blame thrown at the after the former MP’s death.27 Moreover, Lebanon government, no other political party or politician scores 28 points out of 100 in the Corruption joined them in their move before the resignation of Perceptions Index of 2018 (0 is attributed to the most the PM. corrupted countries).28 In general, the political elite reacted in various ways. Lebanon’s economy is also highly burdened with debt Some refrained from openly addressing public as the balance-of-payment lingers in red numbers and demands or explicitly refused the resignation of the the fiscal stability depends on external and domestic government. Others have been trying to appease the borrowing. Foreign borrowing is then conditioned by angered demonstrators by supporting the reform plan the ability to maintain macroeconomic stability, but still lobbying for their power positions. Some ensured by cutting expenses and raising tax revenues.29 politicians tried to join the protestors but to no avail, The public debt has reached $80,39 billion in 2018, for example in Tripoli, Mosbah al-Ahdab, a former witnessing an upward trend in the past five years30, or MP, which led to clashes.23 In other words, existing staggering 150% of the GDP, making Lebanon one of political actors across ideological and sectarian the most indebted countries in the world.31 Despite landscape have been unable to hijack the protests, the 2019 budget that was supposed to kick start a five- despite some’s recurrent attempts to threaten and years economic recovery plan to reduce deficit and scare off the protestors. prevent financial crisis, the economy is now on a verge of a currency crisis. For twenty years, the Lebanese The Systemic Issue Leading Up to October 17 pound (LBP) has been pegged to the US dollar to Basic social services in Lebanon suffer from systemic avert currency devaluation, consequently raising prices shortcomings including unequal access to medical of imports in a country highly dependent on imported treatment, social security and pensions. The healthcare goods and foreign remittances.32 Due to several system and particularly the hospitalization sector, reasons that go beyond the scope of this article, in late suffer from insufficient funding, causing inflated September 2019, Lebanon suffered from shortage of private services and in turn inefficient public hospitals hard currency, causing a spike in the exchange rates lack equipment and staff. Without centralized health and hindering the purchasing power of the people.33 insurance system citizens are forced to rely on private While the central bank fixed the exchange rate at operators. However, a significant portion of the 1507.5 LBP/USD, the market rate reached 1595, population cannot afford full coverage. Existing causing urgency among the citizens, who fearing public welfare institutions such as the National Social devaluation, wanted to buy US dollars and withdraw Security Fund is in deficit and fail to provide pensions savings in US dollars from the banks. The economic for population over 64.24 Furthermore, the

Prague Centre for Middle East Relations Policy Paper vol. 1 no. 2 November 19, 2019

instability and the remittances drop, in an economy The Way Forward highly reliant on expatriates’ money being sent home, The people’s demands include the resignation of the led to the decrease of the LBP demand.34 government, new parliamentary elections and the retribution against the corrupted within the political Finally, the citizens still deal with an acute garbage system. Some demand the separation of religion from crisis, since the government failed to commission a politics along with calls to implement economic and company for garbage collection and disposal. As a social reforms by a smaller technocratic cabinet.43 The result, garbage was scattered across seashores and streets demand long-term and systematic changes. mountains, causing health and environmental However, the political dynamics in Lebanon are rather hazards.35 Electricity blackouts for several hours every slow hallmarked by carefully negotiated sectarian day are also ever-present, forcing people to pay yet compromises among elites which tend to stall and another bill for private generators.36 In addition, obstruct the political process. Albeit there is still hope people struggle to put their kids in costly private that this time the situation will result in genuine schools and universities given the low quality of the change, in line with protestors’ demands. public institutions. The economy suffers from high unemployment rates, especially among youth (the Unlike other Arab Spring countries, Lebanon already official youth unemployment rate is 37%37), forcing has a relatively liberal Constitution, amended at the many to look for jobs abroad and thus draining the end of Civil War in 1990. It ensures the constitutional, country from educated and competent people. The democratic and lawful means to reach the demands poverty rate keeps increasing throughout the years, being chanted in the streets. After the resignation of from 27,4% in 2011-2012 to approximately 30% in the government, the president is supposed to lead 2018 and risks rising to 50% if the ongoing economic parliamentary consultations to form a new crisis worsens.38 Furthermore, the GDP per capita government (Article 5344). A power vacuum would growth has been witnessing negative numbers since not take place as the resigned government keeps 201139, concurrently with the Syrian war that has also performing some governmental tasks and duties taken a toll on the Lebanese economy – the influx of under the temporary status of a caretaker government, refugees to an already saturated job market and a hit until a new government is formed (Article 64, to the Lebanese exports seen that Syria was one of its Paragraph 245). The latter should be established based main trade partners.40 Lebanon ranks as 91st in terms on technocracy, in a compact format and outside of of the GDP per capita (2018), compared to the rest of the current political spectrum. the world.41 The parliament would entrust the new government The list of grudges of the people against their with new legislation acts: a law ensuring the government goes on but in conclusion, the authorities independency and competency of the judiciary system failed to satisfy basic needs and deliver public services to punish corruption, abuse of power, embezzlement while also fuelling religious and party-backed division of public funds and other unlawful conduct. The other in the society. The Lebanese electoral system act should introduce a new electoral law separating the guarantees that all the eighteen confessions are sectarian affiliations from the equation of power represented in the parliament according to their division, according to which elections should be held. demographic weight and that the 128 parliamentary This would align with the Constitution and would only seats are equally divided between Christians and be an application of the constitutional amendments. Muslims. These divisions also translate into sectarian For instance, the Article 9546 declares that the quotas in the bureaucracy and the executive branch, parliament should take the appropriate measures to for example the president must be a Maronite, the PM eliminate political sectarianism. a Sunni and the speaker of the parliament a Shiite.42

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In this scenario, people could choose their deputies public debt, creating job opportunities and generating according to electoral programs and competencies real economic sustainable growth.48 Finally, the ruling regardless of religious affiliations. The newly elected class should hear out the demands of the people now parliament would then elect a new president who and at all stages of dealing with the current events. would then name a new PM who in turn would form However, politicians seem very attached to their seats a new government. However, there is a risk that the and reluctant to abandon their positions. Thus, the same actors would remain in power since the same question remains to what length are they willing to go parliament would be consulting with the president to preserve those positions? regarding the new government. There are already talks that the political parties would rename al-Hariri as PM and are lobbying for seats in that new government.47 Here lays the crucial importance of the pressure exerted by the protesters and the public opinion on the leadership.

Consequently, the people would regain trust in the ruling elite and in the implementation of reforms and measures against corrupted politicians and fraudulent officers. At this point, the new political system should come forward with reform plans to address all the economic, financial, monetary, social and environmental issues mentioned throughout this article. For instance, authorities could address the fiscal problems by raising the tax-to-GDP ratio, increasing the revenues through direct taxes such as those on wealth and property, reducing the reliance on

1 “Lebanon: Security Forces Use Excessive Force Against 9 The Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri Asks for 72 Hours for a Protesters,” Human Rights Watch, October 19, 2019, Reform Plan to Meet the Demands of the Protestors (In https://bit.ly/2JY3VLs. Arabic) (YouTube, 2019), https://bit.ly/34oigZw. 2 “Hezbollah Supporters Attack Anti-Government Protest Site 10 Saad Al-Hariri’s Speech after the Cabinet Meeting (In in Beirut,” Euronews, October 29, 2019, Arabic) (YouTube, 2019), https://bit.ly/338EgY6. https://bit.ly/2NmZfRo. 11 “Lebanon - Data,” The World Bank, accessed July 3, 2017, 3 “Lebanon’s Hariri Announces Economic Reforms in http://data.worldbank.org/country/lebanon. Response to Days of Protests,” France 24, October 21, 2019, 12 Ellen Francis and Tom Perry, “IMF Sees Lebanon’s 2019 24, https://bit.ly/2PKSHxI. Deficit Bigger than Government Target,” Reuters, July 2, 4 Timour Azhari, “‘It Was like Judgment Day’: Lebanese 2019, https://reut.rs/2K7ZfmD. Devastated by Wildfires,” Al-Jazeera, October 17, 2019, 13 Tom Perry and Angus McDowall, “Lebanese Government https://bit.ly/2PHheUr. Agrees to Raise Tax on Interest Payments to 10% for Three 5 Joumana Haddad, “Lebanon Is on Fire,” The New York Years,” Reuters, May 10, 2019, https://reut.rs/2Nk88vm. Times, October 19, 2019, sec. Opinion, 14 The Reform Paper Presented by Prime Minister Saad Al- https://nyti.ms/2N9Ylrq. Hariri, How Can Its Provision Be Implemented and Does It 6 “Lebanon Scraps WhatsApp Tax as Protests Rage,” BBC Actually Ease the Deficit? (In Arabic) (YouTube, 2019), News, October 18, 2019, sec. Middle East, https://bit.ly/2NIkiwL. https://bbc.in/34M298v. 15 President Michel Aoun’s Message to the Lebanese (In 7 “Protests Erupt in Lebanon over Plans to Impose New Arabic) (YouTube, 2019), https://bit.ly/2qsJLCI. Taxes,” Al-Jazeera, October 18, 2019, https://bit.ly/2C8ta9D. 16 Tamara Qiblawi and Nada Altaher, “Lebanon President 8 “Lebanon Announces Government after Months of Gives No Ground after Week of Angry Protests,” CNN, Deadlock,” Al-Jazeera, January 31, 2019, October 24, 2019, https://cnn.it/2JQGvaS. https://bit.ly/36qDQ1f.

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Washington Post, October 22, 2019, 17 President’s Aoun Speech to the Lebanese on the Occasion https://wapo.st/2oGQAzP. of the End of the First Half of His Presidential Term (In 33 Lauren Holtmeier, “How Lebanon’s Dollar Shortage Arabic) (YouTube, 2019), https://bit.ly/2pPtBTH. Sparked an Economic Crisis,” Al-Arabiya, October 7, 2019, 18 “Lebanese President Calls for an End to Allocation of https://bit.ly/2PItyDG. Government Posts by Religion,” France 24, October 31, 34 Dana Khraiche, “Lebanese Peg That’s Held Up for Over 2019, 24, https://bit.ly/2rfrrgw. Two Decades Is Under Siege,” Bloomberg, October 1, 2019, 19 Georgi Azar, “Protesters Take Offense to President’s https://bloom.bg/36Kukqb. Speech, Block Roads and Highways,” An-Nahar, November 35 Baumann, “Lebanon’s Economic Crisis Didn’t Happen 12, 2019, https://bit.ly/2NFp3Zm. Overnight. So How Did It Get to This Point?” 20 Mersiha Gadzo, “‘All of Them’: Lebanon Protesters Dig in 36 Ibid. after Nasrallah’s Speech,” Al-Jazeera, October 25, 2019, 37 “In Lebanon, All Roads Lead to Austerity,” Stratfor, https://bit.ly/2PZQnDj. October 7, 2019, https://bit.ly/2No7wVy. 21 Mersiha Gadzo, “Lebanon Protests: ‘Difficult, Delicate’ 38 “Lebanon Is in the Midst of Economic, Financial and Situation for Hezbollah,” Al-Jazeera, October 27, 2019, Social Hardship, Situation Could Get Worse,” The World https://bit.ly/2rLuUUl. Bank, November 6, 2019, 22 Georgi Azar, “Lebanese Forces Resign from Cabinet,” An- https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press- Nahar, October 20, 2019, https://bit.ly/2WPkDSw. release/2019/11/06/world-bank-lebanon-is-in-the-midst-of- 23 Khalil Fleihan, “Western Countries Praise Lebanese economic-financial-and-social-hardship-situation-could-get- Protests,” Asharq Al-awsat, October 22, 2019, worse. https://bit.ly/2JWfTFk. 39 “GDP per Capita Growth (Annual %),” Lebanon | Data, 24 Dina Anotnios, “The Lebanese Healthcare Sector: In accessed November 15, 2019, https://bit.ly/33SqcCp. Urgent Need of Reforms,” BLOMINVEST, April 21, 2018, 40 Jana Samadova and Yvona Novotna, “Lebanon,” in https://bit.ly/33ogZSb. Untangling the Mayhem: Crises and Prospects of the Middle 25 Marwan Mikhael, “Lebanon’s Pension System,” East, ed. Radka Havlová, International Relations in Asia, BLOMINVEST, March 18, 2016, https://bit.ly/2NKFFxD. Africa and the Americas : Politics, Economy, Society - 26 George Al-Haddad, “The salaries of Lebanese presidents Transdisciplinary Perspectives, vol. 3 (Berlin: Peter Lang, and deputies among the highest in the world (In Arabic),” 2018). Legal Agenda, September 5, 2017, https://bit.ly/2ClDZFy. 41 “Middle East : Lebanon,” The World Factbook - Central 27 Leen Abdul-Rida, “Infograph: MP in Lebanon... Get rich Intelligence Agency, accessed November 15, 2019, immediately (In Arabic),” Al-Modon, February 22, 2019, https://bit.ly/2rGgkxl. https://bit.ly/2qiIca2. 42 Samadova and Novotna, “Lebanon.” 28 “Corruption Perceptions Index 2018,” Transparency 43 “Lebanon’s Hariri Announces Economic Reforms in International, accessed November 12, 2019, Response to Days of Protests,” 24. https://bit.ly/2X8Uf6a. 44 “The Lebanese Constitution (In Arabic),” Lebanese 29 Amr Adly, “How Public Debt Explains Lebanon’s Presidency, accessed October 30, 2019, Protests,” Bloomberg, October 22, 2019, https://bit.ly/36wpQTA. https://bloom.bg/33dJ5PT. 45 Ibid. 30 Rouba Chbeir, “Gross Public Debt in Lebanon Hit $80B in 46 Ibid. January 2018,” BLOMINVEST, March 19, 2018, 47 Laila Bassam, “Hariri Ready to Be Lebanese PM Again but https://bit.ly/34rpYlK. with Conditions: Source,” Reuters, October 31, 2019, 31 Sarmad Khan, “Lebanon 2019 Budget Is Start of a Long https://reut.rs/32mrYdz. Economic Recovery Process, Saad Hariri Says,” The 48 Adly, “How Public Debt Explains Lebanon’s Protests.” National, May 26, 2019, https://bit.ly/2JLF11I. 32 Hannes Baumann, “Lebanon’s Economic Crisis Didn’t Happen Overnight. So How Did It Get to This Point?,”

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