Does Legitimacy Matter for Intrastate Armed Conflict?
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Does Legitimacy Matter for Intrastate Armed Conflict? Does Legitimacy Matter for Intrastate Armed Conflict? Fenja Søndergaard Møller PhD Dissertation Politica © Forlaget Politica and the author 2019 ISBN: 978-87-7335-250-2 Cover: Svend Siune Print: Fællestrykkeriet, Aarhus University Layout: Annette Bruun Andersen Submitted March 28, 2019 The public defense takes place June 3, 2019 Published June 2019 Forlaget Politica c/o Department of Political Science Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University Bartholins Allé 7 DK-8000 Aarhus C Denmark Table of contents Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... 9 Preface ........................................................................................................................ 11 Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................. 13 1.1 The research gap ............................................................................................... 15 1.2 The structure of the dissertation summary ..................................................... 16 Chapter 2: The conflict literature and legitimacy ...................................................... 19 2.1 Motives: Greed and grievance .......................................................................... 19 2.2 Opportunities and feasibility .......................................................................... 20 2.3 Regime types .................................................................................................... 21 2.4 War types ........................................................................................................ 22 2.5 Horizontal grievance ....................................................................................... 23 2.6 Subnational factors ......................................................................................... 24 2.7 Summary ......................................................................................................... 25 Chapter 3: Main contributions ................................................................................. 29 3.1 The theoretical contribution ........................................................................... 29 3.2 The methodologically contribution ................................................................ 30 3.3 The empirical contribution .............................................................................. 31 Chapter 4: The understanding of legitimacy ............................................................ 35 4.1 The definition of legitimacy ............................................................................ 35 4.2 Object and subject .......................................................................................... 38 4.3 Normative or empirical? ................................................................................. 39 4.4 Legitimacy and related concepts .................................................................... 40 4.4.1 Legitimacy and grievance ........................................................................ 40 4.4.2 Political support, trust and consent ......................................................... 41 4.5 Modes of legitimacy: sources, claims and actual levels ................................. 44 Chapter 5: Sub-components of legitimacy and their sources................................... 47 5.1 Breaking down a multidimensional concept .................................................. 47 5.2 Representative legitimacy ............................................................................... 50 5.3 Performance legitimacy ................................................................................... 51 5.3.1 Material performance legitimacy............................................................. 52 5.3.2 Immaterial performance legitimacy ....................................................... 52 5.4 Summary ......................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 6: Measurement of legitimacy ..................................................................... 55 6.1 Existing approaches to measurement ............................................................. 55 6.2 Measurement in this dissertation .................................................................... 57 6.2.1 Challenges related to survey data ............................................................ 62 6.2.2 Endogeneity ............................................................................................. 63 5 Chapter 7: Legitimacy and expected effects on intrastate armed conflict ................ 65 7.1 What kind of conflicts? .................................................................................... 65 7.2 Motives matter................................................................................................. 66 7.3 Overall effects of legitimacy ............................................................................ 67 7.4 The likelihood of intrastate armed conflict ..................................................... 68 7.4.1 Masses and minorities .............................................................................. 70 Chapter 8: Effects of traditional legitimacy .............................................................. 73 8.1 Middle Eastern monarchies (Paper 1) ............................................................. 73 8.2 The Kingdom of Swaziland (Paper 2) ............................................................. 75 Chapter 9: Effects of performance legitimacy ........................................................... 79 9.1 Performance legitimacy in African provinces (Paper 3) ................................. 79 9.2 Immaterial sources of performance legitimacy (Paper 4) .............................. 81 Chapter 10: Conclusion ............................................................................................. 83 10.1 Main findings ................................................................................................. 83 10.2 Policy implications ........................................................................................ 86 10.3 Suggestions for future conflict research........................................................ 87 References .................................................................................................................. 89 Short summary .......................................................................................................... 97 Dansk resumé ............................................................................................................ 99 6 List of figures Figure 1. The four papers and the main variables ..................................................... 17 Figure 2. Legitimacy and related concepts ............................................................... 43 Figure 3. Dimensions of legitimacy and possible sources ........................................ 54 Figure 4. The causal links between horizontal inequalities and civil war ................ 68 Figure 5. Motives, opportunities and legitimacy ...................................................... 69 Figure 6. Probabilities of armed conflict onset ........................................................ 74 Figure 7. Discrimination and probabilities of armed conflict onset ......................... 75 Figure 8. Trust in Swaziland and other African countries ....................................... 76 Figure 9. Performance legitimacy and violent conflicts in geocoded provinces ...... 80 Figure 10. Liberalization and protest escalation ...................................................... 82 List of tables Table 1. Overview of the conflict literature and the role of legitimacy ..................... 26 Table 2. Selected definitions of legitimacy ............................................................... 37 Table 3. The differences between legitimacy and grievance ..................................... 41 Table 4. Dimensions of legitimacy ............................................................................ 50 Table 5. Approaches to measurement of legitimacy ................................................. 60 Table 6. Overview of main findings related to the four papers ................................ 85 7 Acknowledgements Almost six years ago, I took the train from Copenhagen to Aarhus to meet with two researchers at the Department of Political Science, Morten Valbjørn and Jørgen Møller. We were discussing my potential PhD project. Later the same day, I had a meeting with the former PhD coordinator, Peter Munk Christian- sen. I told him that I would love to become a PhD student at the department. However, I wanted him to know that I was pregnant. His answer was some- thing like this: “No problem, most of our PhDs have children during the PhD process. Some of them even manage to have two.” From that moment, I knew that I was in the right place. Excellent research, interesting courses, brilliant teaching and room for parenthood. That was a dream scenario. My husband and I decided to move to Aarhus and I have never regretted that decision. I have enjoyed every course, presentation and workshop at the department – and eventually my husband and I broke the record and had three wonderful kids during my time as a PhD student. I literally have hundreds of people to thank. Foremost, my two supervisors did an excellent job of guiding me through