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Release Process for Child Poverty Statistics: Year Ended June 2019

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Report to the Minister of Statistics: Release process for Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019 Date 12 February 2020 Priority High Ref number MM1923 Timeline and next steps Decision or action 21 February 2020 required by: Will be discussed at: As required Purpose ▪ This briefing outlines Stats NZ’s process for the Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019 release, set to be published on 25 February 2020. Linkages ▪ This release fulfils the requirements of Stats NZ under the Child Poverty Reduction Act 2018 Publicity ▪ This briefing will be proactively released on the Stats NZ website as per standard practice. Recommended action It is recommended that you: 1. Note that Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019 will be released on 25 February 2020 NOTED 2. Note that the Government Statistician is required by the Child Poverty Reduction Act 2018 to provide statistics on specific measures of child poverty released NOTED 3. Note the Government Statistician has statutory independence in relation to the production and provision of official statistics, and the extent, form, and timing of publication of those statistics NOTED 4. Note the process for this release, and that key Ministers and stakeholders will receive an embargoed copy of the release 24 hours ahead of publication NOTED 5. Agree to share a copy of this briefing with the Minister for Child Poverty Reduction, Minister of Finance, Minister for Social Development, and Minister for Children AGREE / DISAGREE Jason Attewell Hon James Shaw General Manager – Social and Population Minister of Statistics InsightsProactively Date: In confidence Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019 will be the first official child poverty figures from the improved HES, as required by the Child Poverty Reduction Act (2018) 1. Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019 will be released at 10:45am, Tuesday, 25 February 2020. 2. While generally there is no pre-release to statistics for any stakeholders, the Child Poverty Statistics release falls within the realm of topical releases, which may be available for advance briefing under embargoed conditions. 3. In accordance with Stats NZ’s release practice policy, and consistent with the April 2019 release of Child Poverty Statistics, embargoed copies of the release will be provided 24 hours prior to release day for approved stakeholders. This will ensure key stakeholders have prior knowledge of the child poverty estimates before the release, so that they are prepared for questions. 4. A high-level timeline for Household Economic Survey (HES) 2018/19 publications is available in Appendix One. 5. Pre-release access is at the discretion of the Government Statistician. To be eligible for pre- release access, stakeholders must have a publicly recognised accountability for the outcomes and/or measures being reported on or be likely to be approached by the media for comment immediately after the embargo is lifted. 6. From 10:15am to 10:45am on the day of release, Stats NZ will provide a pre-release briefing at Parliament for relevant Ministers’ offices. These are the same conditions as for Stats NZ’s key market sensitive releases, such as Consumer Price Index and Labour Market Statistics releases. 7. There will also be a secure briefing at Stats NZ offices before public release. Major media outlets; child poverty experts, such as the Children’s Commissioner and academics; opposition party representatives; and officials will be given embargoed access to the release. Secure briefings for embargoed releases are held at Stats NZ offices in Wellington and Auckland in the hour before public release. They are run under strict physical ‘lockreleased-up’ conditions. 8. The list of those approved for each part of the release process is available in Appendix Two. Independence and the importance of managing pre-release access 9. Stats NZ will perform its statutory role of impartially releasing data, while emphasising the strengths, limitations, and characteristics of the data. Communications, such as news stories and other release materials, will be clear, so customers, media, and the general public can understand what the data is saying and how it can be used. 10. The Government Statistician has statutory independence, mandated by the Statistics Act 1975, in relation to the production and provision of official statistics; that is: what the number is, how it is calculated, and how it is shared. This is in order to maintain public trust and confidence in the integrity of official statistics. 11. Stats NZ has a published policy on Information releases, embargoes, and sanctions available on its website. Generally, there is no prior access for any stakeholders, including key Ministers. While this approach may appear closed, there are exceptions for some market-sensitive and topical releases. This approach is designed to maintain public trust and confidence in the integrity of official statistics and protect both Stats NZ and Ministers from opportunity for, or accusations of, any political influence on the official figures. The HouseholdProactively Economic Survey (HES) has been improved to better measure the living conditions for all New Zealanders 12. The HES is an annual survey designed to measure the economic well-being of New Zealanders. 13. Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019 will be the second of three releases from the HES 2018/19 scheduled for publication in February-March 2020. In addition to the three releases listed below, Stats NZ will also be releasing a document outlining changes made to the HES 2018/19 on 14 February 2020: 2 ▪ Household Income and Housing-cost Statistics: Year ended June 2019, released on 18 February 2020 ▪ Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019, including a technical appendix, released on 25 February 2020 ▪ Household Expenditure Statistics: Year ended June 2019, released on 3 March 2020. 14. The HES 2018/19 is the first based on the new achieved sample size of approximately 20,000 households (up from 3,500–5,500), as well as a new methodology. These changes are the direct result of funding secured via Budget 2018. Practically, a larger sample size and methodology means Stats NZ has improved the data on living conditions for all New Zealanders, not just those with children. Income and material hardship for the whole population is now available by region and ethnicity. 15. More detail about the impact of the changes are available in the Changes to the Household Economic Survey: Year ended June 2019 available in Appendix Three. Key changes include: ▪ use of administrative data ▪ increased sample size ▪ changes to how the sample is drawn, including an additional Māori booster sample ▪ inclusion of regional councils, household income, the New Zealand Deprivation Index (2013), and child poverty characteristics as stratification variables ▪ minor updates to the questionnaire. The dataset used to produce child poverty statistics went through a stringent validation process and is subject to Stats NZ’s highest level of scrutiny 16. The HES 2018/19 dataset has been validated to a level appropriate to output. Stats NZ follows a comprehensive validation process before finalising releaseda dataset. The HES dataset used to produce child poverty statistics has had checks on data collection, systems, processes, and estimates. 17. Significant steps in the validation process include: ▪ Survey Interviewers using computer-assisted interviewing for range and consistency edits in the questionnaire, which enables checking of improbable values, and results in fewer errors in the data ▪ editing to resolve inconsistencies and errors once the data are loaded to the processing system ▪ reviewing the data for unexplained outliers, as well as comparing data against previous HES data for any movements that cannot be explained by real-world changes. 18. Over recent years, Stats NZ has identified and reduced the risk of errors by increasing the number of checks and migrating to a new processing system, which provides increased control and transparency of data processing. Stats NZ continues to engage externally with child poverty experts on child poverty measurement 16. The Government Statistician has consulted with the Chief Executive of the Ministry of Social DevelopmentProactively (MSD) on matters of methodology and on the release documents themselves, as required by the Child Poverty Reduction Act 2018. In addition, MSD analysts were seconded to Stats NZ to provide early access to the HES 2018/19 dataset, and they have replicated the child poverty estimates using their own independent code. 3 17. Stats NZ also discusses with the Child Poverty Data Working Group methods used in producing child poverty statistics. The Working Group has included representatives from: ▪ Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet ▪ Ministry of Social Development ▪ Treasury ▪ Social Investment Agency ▪ Oranga Tamariki ▪ Te Puni Kōkiri. released Proactively 4 Appendix One: Release timeline for the Household Economic Survey 2018/19 14 February 2020 10:45am Changes to the Household Economic Survey: Year ended June 2019 document released 17 February 2020 Presentation and Q&A session on the Changes to the Household Economic Survey: Year ended June 2019 18 February 2020 10:45am Household Income and Housing-cost Statistics: Year ended June 2019 released 24 February 2020 10:45am Child Poverty Statistics: Year ended June 2019 provided to approved stakeholders under embargo 25 February 2020 10:15am Briefing held at Parliament for relevant Ministers’
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