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First Release of 2018 Census Data

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First Release of 2018 Census Data Aide memoire to the Minister of Statistics: First Release of 2018 Census Data Date 23 September 2019 Note by 23 September 2019 Priority High Will be For noting only. To be shared with the following offices at 1100 on 23 September discussed at 2019: . Rt Hon Jacinda Ardern . Hon Ian Lees-Galloway . Rt Hon Winston Peters . Hon Jenny Salsea . Hon Kelvin Davis . Hon Damien O’Connor . Hon Grant Robertson . Hon Kris Faafoi . Hon Phil Twyford . Hon Ron Mark . Hon Megan Woods . Hon Tracey Martin . Hon Chris Hipkins . Hon Shane Hones . Hon Andrew Little . Hon Peeni Henare . Hon Carmel Sepuloni . Hon Willie Jackson . Hon Dr David Clark . Hon Aupito William Sio . Hon David Parker . Hon Poto Williams . Hon Nanaia Mahuta . Hon Julie Anne Genter . Hon Stuart Nash . Hon Eugenie Sage Purpose and key issues released 1. This aide memoire provides high level figures from the first release of 2018 Census data on 23 September 2019. Data from the 2018 Census will support the setting of electorate numbers and boundaries, and population-based government funding decisions. Data Quality 2. Using strict data safety and security practices, we’ve added real data about real people to the census dataset. The data is reliable government administrative records that we hold in trust on behalf of the nation, such as tax data, and births records. This is not guesswork. 3. Data from the 2018 Census will support the setting of electorate numbers and boundaries, and population-based government funding decisions. 4. Stats NZ have taken a considered and balanced approach to the use of administrative data. 5. The External Data Quality Panel has endorsed the methodology used by Stats NZ. 6. The Report of the Independent Review into the 2018 Census noted that the work Stats NZ had done to remediate the census dataset is in many respects world-leading. Overarching figures 7. New Zealand’s population has grown by an average 2.1 percent a year in the five years since the 2013 Census – which is significantly higher than annual growth between 2006 and 2013 censusesProactively (0.7 percent). 8. New Zealand’s 2018 Census usually resident population count was 4,699,755 – up 457,707 (10.1 percent) from the 2013 Census (4,242,048). 9. At recent population growth rates, New Zealand is likely to reach a population of 5 million in 2020, up from 4 million in 2003. EMBARGOED UNTIL 1100 23 SEPTEMBER 2019 Dwellings 10. On Census night, New Zealand had 1,855,962 total (occupied and unoccupied) private dwellings, 108,558 more than in 2013. 11. 10.3 percent of private dwellings were unoccupied (191,649). Electoral 12. Population growth since 2013 has resulted in one new general electorate in the North Island but no change to the number of Māori electorates for the next general election. 13. The Electoral Act 1993 sets out the formula for calculating the number of electorates. The formula has resulted in: . the total number of general electorates increasing from 64 to 65 . the number of North Island general electorates increasing from 48 to 49 . the number of Māori electorates remaining at seven. 14. The average sizes (or quotas) of electorates are 65,458 people for South Island general electorates, 64,899 people for North Island general electorates, and 67,582 people for Māori electorates. 15. To ensure all electorates are within 5 percent (above or below) of these totals, approximately one-third of the electorate boundaries will need to be redrawn by the Representation Commission. Regions 16. Auckland is home to one-third of New Zealand’s population with a 2018 Census population of more than 1.5 million (1,571,718) – up 156,168. released 17. Three regions around Auckland had the highest population growth rate. They are Northland (up 3.4 percent per annum to 179,076), Bay of Plenty (up 2.9 percent per annum to 308,499), and the Waikato (up 2.6 percent per annum to 548,202). 18. All regions increased in population since the 2013 Census except for the West Coast where there was a small decline of 1.8 percent (573 people) to 31,575. 19. The census counts indicate that 60.9 percent of New Zealand's population growth since 2013 is in the four northernmost regions, and these regions account for over half (53.6 percent) of New Zealand's population. 20. As with 2006 and 2013 Censuses, the 2018 Census found that three-quarters of the population live in the North Island. Ethnicity 21. The Māori, Asian and Pacific ethnic groups have all grown as a proportion of the population since the 2013 Census while the European ethnic group has declined slightly (as a proportion of the population, but not in number). 22. The European ethnic group remains the largest in the country by a significant margin at 70.2 percent (3,297,864) followed by Māori at 16.5 percent (775,836), the Asian ethnic group at 15.1 percentProactively (707,598) and the Pacific ethnic group at 8.1 percent (381,642). Ethnicity 2018 population 2018 proportion 2013 population 2013 proportion (census counts) European 3,297,864 70.2 percent 2,969,391 74.0 percent Māori 775,836 16.5 percent 598,602 14.9 percent Asian 707,598 15.1 percent 471,708 11.8 percent Pacific 381,642 8.1 percent 295,941 7.4 percent MELAA 70,332 1.5 percent 46,953 1.2 percent 2 EMBARGOED UNTIL 1100 23 SEPTEMBER 2019 Note - These percentages sum to more than 100 percent because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity, for example, both European and Māori or Asian and Pacific.) 23. Almost two-thirds of the Pacific and Asian (63.9 and 62.6 percent) and more than half (51.0 percent) of the MELAA (Middle Eastern, Latin American, and African) ethnic groups live in Auckland. 24. The Pacific and Māori ethnic groups are much younger than the European with median ages of 23.4 years (Pacific) and 25.4 years (Māori) compared to 31.3 (Asian) and 41.4 years (European). Sex 25. Males outnumber females at birth but the ratio swaps as the population ages – in the under 15 age group there are 105 males to every 100 females but just 95 males (to every 100 females) in the 30-64 age group. released Proactively 3 EMBARGOED UNTIL 1100 23 SEPTEMBER 2019 .
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