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Japan In2050 JapaneseJapaneseSociety Society ofCulturalof Cultural Anthropology 2010 Japanese Society of Cultural Anthropology Award Lecture Japan in 2050: An Anthropological Imagination of Japan's Future through the Dreams of Filipina Migrants YAMAsHITA Shinji Graduate Sehool ofArts and Sciences, The University of Tbkyo [[lrranslated by John ERTTi Kanazawa University and TANAKA Maki University of Califbrnia, Berkeley What will Japan look like in 2050? By 2050, Japan's current population of a27 million will decline to 9" million, due to its ]ow birth rate. The number of people aged 65 or older will increase to 40.5 percent of the total population by 2055. This is an ultra-aged society never experienced before in human history. Within such a "import" demographic framework, Japan may be forced to foreign labor for the survival of its economy. Thus, some foresee that Japan will have 1O million foreign residents by 2050, accounting for 1ri percent of the total population, a$ compared with 2.2 mirlion, or 1.7 percent, as of 2008. That necessarily leads to the scenario of Japan becoming multicultura[. Agai,nst the background of such a future soc[o-demographic change in Japanese soc[ety, thi$ paper examines transnational migration into Japan and the Japanese way of IMng together in a multicultural environment, Particularly focusing on the dreams of Filipina migrants, the paper discusses the culturai po[itics of migration, including the issues of citizenship and human rights, and seeks the possibility of establishing a public anthropology directed toward the future Japanese society. Key words: Japan's future, aged society with a low birth rate, transnational migration, multioulturalism, publicanthropology Introduction My career as an anthropolegist began in 1970, fbrty years ago, as an undeTgraduate student at the University of [Ibkyo, As a graduate student at [[bkyo Metropolitan UniversitM my dissertation was an ethnographic study of rituals of the [[braja in Sulawesi, Indonesia, which was later published as a book (YAMAsHITtrt 1988). Over the past twenty years I have .1opanese Review qfCulturalAnthtzij?ology, vol. 12, 2011 NII-Electronic Library Service JapaneseJapaneseSociety Society of Cultural Anthropology 4 YL"･LxsHTTA Shinji worked to develop an anthropological approach to human mobility, wit･h an emphasis on international tourism and t,ransnational migration (\:thIAsHII;A 1999, 2009). Receiving an award such as this would generally lead into retrospection of past accomplishments. But rather, I would like to take this opportunity to look ahead, and imagine what shape Japan - - and the discipline of anthropology may take in the year 2050, Admittedly, as it is challenging to foresee changes even five or ten years ahead, it is impossible to predict what Japan may be like in forty years. As such, many people might think it pointless to attempt - such an endeavor and perhaps they are right. However, I believe that human histoTy is something that may be created through imagining the future. At the 1982 annual meeting of the American Anthropologieal Association in Washington DC, which I happened to attended, Marshal SAHI.INs gave a distinguished lecture titled, "Other Times, Other Customs." This lecture was included in his book Xylands of Histonyy (SAHLINS 1985) and opened new direetions in the field of historical anthropology. My intexest "other is in this same idea of times," but those of the future, not the past, By imagining the "other future, which may have customs," I wish to form an anthropology directed toward the future of Japan in 2050.i Imagining Japan in 2050: Demographic Change and Tltransnational Mobility ' A vision of Japanese society in 2050 must be framed within the demographic changes resulting fi]om the dwindling birthrate and aging population (sho-shi-ko'reika), First, the population of Japan, which peaked in 2004 (127.79 million), is predicted to fa11 by 30"40 million from eurrent numbers, reaching 91 million by 2050. The population of 30'40 million is approximately equal to that of the great,er [[bkyo metropolitan area, including Saitama, Chiba, and Kallagawa prefectures. Furthermore, by the year 21eO it is estimated that the population will decrease to around 45 million.2 As far as population is eoncerned, then, the twenty-first century will be a century of decline for Japan - a marked contrast to Japan's age of growth in the twentieth century Second, Japan is undergoing a shift age composition. the great in In 2009, the proportion of "super elderly population (over 65 years'old) was 22,7 pereent, making Japan a aged society" (cho-koffrei shakai), and this is expected to increase to 40.5 percent by 2055.3 In addition, the ratio of children (under 15 years-old) is estimated to fa11 to 8.4 percent and the working-age i essay a revised version This is of my leeture originally delivered in Japanese at the 44th eJapanese Society of Cultural Anthrepology Meeting (June 12, 2010, St, Paul]s University). Pflrts of the essay were also delivered in English at the Conference on Migration in China and Asia (May 20-21, 2010, Beijing, China), at the 11Lh Biennial Conference of the European Assoeiation of Social Anthropologists CAugust 24'27, 2010, Mayneoth, ITeland), and at the 3'd Annual Meeting of East Asian Anthropology (September 10'11, 2010, The Academy of Korean Studies, Korea), 2 National Institute ofPopulation and Social Security Research. JinkO 7ZJkei Shir.vo-shu- 2009 (Pepulation Statistics Data2009).http:11www,ipss.go.jptsyoushikattohkeitPopularlPopular2009.asp?ehap=O '" Cabinet Offlce. Hleisei 22 Nen Ban KOreika Shakai Hbkusho (White Paper on Aging Society 2010), httpiUwww8.cao.go.jplkoureilwhitepaperfw-2010fg'aiyou122pdf-indexg.html NII-Electronic Library Service JapaneseJapaneseSociety Society of Cultural Anthropology Japan in 2050 5 population (ages 15 to 64) to 51,1 percent.4 Third, another important factor in eonsidering the state population is transnational migration, Where Japan had once been a country notable for emigration, the large-scale entry of a foreign national population began in the 1980s, and in 2008 the number of foreign residents reached 2,217,426.'5 These numbers are eomparable to the population of Miyagi Prefecture (2,36 million) or Nagano Prefecture (2.19 million), and comprise 1.74 percent of the total population. In comparison to the United States or many European countries this is still a low figure, but it is three times larger than the approximately 750,OOO registered foreign residents in 1975. The number of fbreign residents has eontinued to increase over the past twenty years, despite the lingering eeonomic stagnation following the collapse of the bubble economy6 The United Nations Population Division stated that for Japan to maintain the same working population of 1995 (87.2 million), it needs a replaeement migration of 33,5 million in the years from 1995 to 2050.7 According to t･his prediction, this would require accepting immigrants at a rate of 610,OOO per year. While less extreme, in response to calls in the business sector, a group of Liberal Democratic Party Iawmakers submitted a proposal in June 2008, which stated that in response to the problem of declining population, the country should over the next 50 years inerease the pToportion of immigrants to roughly 10 peTcent (10 million) of the total population.8 Based on this proposal, the National Strategy Office of the Liberal Democratic Party CJimin-ton Kokka Sennyaku HbnbtD established a group called Road to a Japanese'style Immigrant Nation Project [Ibam ts'ihon-gata knin-kokka e no Michi Pt{Ky'ekuto Chimu) and submitted a proposal to the then Prime Minister FuKuDA. HoweveT, this proposal was derailed fbllowing the September 2009 demise of the Liberal Democrat,ic Party administTation. The eurrent Democratic Party has not made any clear statements regarding its position on this initiative. On the other hand, there are opposing arguments. ONO Goro (2007), for instance, argues that the acceptance of non'Japanese will eome at an immense cost (in regards to medical welfare, Japanese Ianguage instruetion, children's education), and Japan does not have the finaneial Ieeway when they are already dealing with a national pension program on the verge 4 National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Nihon no SViOrai SuikeiJinko-: Heisei 1es Nen 12 Catszt Suikei (Estimated Future Population of Japan: Deeember 2006 Estimation). http:lfwww.ipss.go.jpfsy. eushikaltohkeifsuikei071suikei.html#.chapt]O-1 5 Immigration Bureau of eJapan. ,･Nhrfikokzi Kanritv. oku 7bkei. (Immigration Bureau Statisties). http:lfwww.immi'moj,go.jpltoukeVindex.html 6 In 2009, however, the number was 2,186,121, about 30,OOO fewer than 2008, when the highest population was reeorded. This may be attributed to the world finaneial crisis that began in the United States in the fall of 2008. As stated later, Brazilian Nikkei faced haken-giri (contraet cancellation), in whieh ease they had no choice but to go back to their country, Immigration Bureau Statisties. http:ltwww.immi-moj .go,jpftoukeitindex.html 7 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration, Japan, http:/Iwww.un.org/esalpopulatieni S KOchiku ni Yinzai 1(dikokzt! Nihvn-gata hnin Seisaku no 7bigen.' Sekai no PV2ikamono ga ijtl S7iitai to Akogareru Kuni no thtkete: Chtikan 7bf'imatome (Human Resources Opening Japan! An Opinion on the Japanese-style Immigration Policy: Toward Building a Country to which Yuuths from the World Wish to Immigrate: Interim Rcport), SAKANAKiX Hidenori and ASAKAWA AIcihiro (2007) made an important eontribution to this report,. NII-Electronic Library Service JapaneseJapaneseSociety Society of Cultural Anthropology 6 hitASHITAShinji of bankruptcy and t]rying to reign in the costs of medical care for the elderly, Moreover, as businesses send their manufacturing overseas, thereby hollowing out industry within Japan, it is likely that theTe will be reduced need for labor even for Japanese eitizens. In any case, the shape of Japan in 2050 will likely be determined by the ehanging demographic structures resulting from the declining birthrate and aging society.
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