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Equitable Growth Evaluation for the Denver Region

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Equitable Growth Evaluation for the Denver Region Final Report Equitable Growth Evaluation for the Denver Region Prepared for: Mile High Connects and Denver Regional Council of Governments Prepared by: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. September 29, 2014 EPS #143011 Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................ 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 Report Organization .................................................................................................. 1 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................ 2 2. ECONOMIC VITALITY FRAMEWORK .............................................................................. 8 Background .............................................................................................................. 8 Economic Vitality ...................................................................................................... 9 Importance of Equity in Economic Vitality .................................................................. 10 Threats to Economic Vitality ..................................................................................... 11 Middle Skill Jobs ..................................................................................................... 11 3. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ........................................................................................ 13 Population Trends and Forecasts ............................................................................... 13 Aging Population ..................................................................................................... 16 Racial and Ethnic Diversity ....................................................................................... 18 Poverty Rate .......................................................................................................... 24 Educational Attainment ............................................................................................ 25 4. JOBS AND JOB ACCESS ......................................................................................... 28 Employment and Wage Trends ................................................................................. 28 Middle Skill Jobs ..................................................................................................... 32 5. LABOR FORCE ISSUES AND CHALLENGES .................................................................... 33 Last Mile Connections and Workforce Access .............................................................. 33 Housing ................................................................................................................. 34 Affordable Housing .................................................................................................. 39 Job Information Access ............................................................................................ 41 Transit Accessible Jobs ............................................................................................ 42 6. REGIONAL PLANNING ORGANIZATION CASE STUDIES ...................................................... 45 Mid America Regional Council ................................................................................... 45 Metropolitan Council of Minnesota ............................................................................. 47 Central Puget Sound Regional Council ....................................................................... 49 Other Examples ...................................................................................................... 50 List of Tables Table 1 Population Trends, Metro Denver, 2000-2012 .................................................... 13 Table 2 Population Forecast, Metro Denver, 2005-2035 .................................................. 15 Table 3 Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, Metro Denver, 2000-2010 ...................... 18 Table 4 Percent Change in Population by Race by County, 2000-2010 .............................. 19 Table 5 Foreign Born Population by Place of Birth DRCOG Region, 2000-2010 ................... 22 Table 6 Percentage of Population in Poverty by County, 1990-2012 ................................. 24 Table 7 Population with Less than a High School Diploma by Race, 2012 .......................... 25 Table 8 Wage and Salary Employment, 2001-Q2 2013, 7-County Metro Area .................... 28 Table 9 Change in Employment by Wage Level, 7-County Metro Area, 2001-Q22013 ......... 30 Table 10 Average Apartment Rents, Metro Denver, 2005-2013 ......................................... 35 Table 11 Metro Denver Affordable Housing Inventory, 2012 ............................................. 39 Table 12 Average Wages by FasTracks Corridor and Station ............................................. 43 List of Figures Figure 1 Foundation and Building Blocks for a Sustainable Economy ................................. 10 Figure 2 Share of Population Change by County, Metro Denver, 2000-2012 ....................... 14 Figure 3 Population Forecast and Share of Population Change by County, Metro Denver, 2005-2040 .................................................................................................... 15 Figure 4 Over 65 Population Forecast by County, Metro Denver, 2012-2040 ...................... 16 Figure 5 Percentage of Population Over 65 ..................................................................... 17 Figure 6 Non-White Population as a Percentage of Total by Census Tract, 2012 .................. 20 Figure 7 Statewide Forecast of Non-White and White Population, 2010-2040 ..................... 21 Figure 8 Foreign Born Population by Census Tract, 2012.................................................. 23 Figure 9 Percentage of Population without High School Diploma by County, 2012 ............... 26 Figure 10 Percentage of Population without High School Diploma, 2012 .............................. 27 Figure 11 Change in Employment by Wage Range and Quartile, 7-County Metro Area, 2001-Q2013 .................................................................................................. 29 Figure 12 Inflation Adjusted Wage Growth, 7-County Metro Area, 2001-Q2013 .................... 31 Figure 13 Projected Jobs and Average Wages by Skill Level, State of Colorado, 2012-2022 ... 32 Figure 14 Job Density (Jobs per Acre), Metro Denver, 2013 ............................................... 36 Figure 15 Average Home Price by Census Tract, Metro Denver, 2013 .................................. 37 Figure 16 Percent Change in Average Home Price, 2001-2013 ........................................... 38 Figure 17 Metro Denver Affordable Housing Inventory, 2012 ............................................. 40 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction This study by Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) was commissioned by Mile High Connects, a partner in the $4.5 million Sustainable Communities Initiative (SCI) Grant received by the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Environmental Protection Agency, and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Mile High Connects is a broad partnership of organizations from the private, public, and nonprofit sectors that are committed to increasing access to housing choices, good jobs, quality schools, essential services, and economic opportunity via public transit. DRCOG’s SCI Grant is providing funding for a Regional Economic Strategy, also prepared by EPS, as well as a Regional Housing Strategy. Both strategies are to be used to inform updates to Metro Vision 2040, and to provide guidance to DRCOG on important policy issues and partnerships. This report was prepared for DRCOG and Mile High Connects as a supplement to the Regional Economic Strategy. The purpose of this study is to: Identify issues that are inhibiting equal access to economic opportunity across race, ethnicity, place of residence, and socioeconomic status; Provide examples of best practices from other Regional Planning Agencies (RPAs) in addressing regional equity; Make recommendations to DRCOG on how to more effectively address regional equity issues both in the Metro Vision plan and through its functions as an RPA, a natural venue for convening discussions and identifying solutions for complex regional growth and equity issues; and Document trends in Metro Denver that threaten the region’s continued economic vitality. Report Organization This report contains five chapters including this Executive Summary (Chapter 1), which summarizes the major findings from the research and analysis, and makes recommendations for DRCOG. Chapter 2 describes and defines an economic vitality framework for the Denver Region and discusses the importance of equity in economic vitality. Chapter 3 documents several major demographic trends occurring in Metro Denver and discusses their implications for economic vitality and equity. Chapter 4 presents an analysis of employment and wage trends and projections in Metro Denver. Chapter 5 describes impediments to job access by people with low incomes, including transportation gaps (“last miles” connections) and housing costs. Chapter 6 profiles the equity related activities of five Regional Planning Agencies (RPAs): The Mid America Council in the Kansas City region; the Metropolitan Council of Minnesota in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region; the Central Puget
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