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Pro-Israel Party TO: Jewish Electorate Institute FROM: The Mellman Group, Inc. RE: American Jews Remain Strongly Supportive Of The Democratic Party DATE: October 16, 2018 This analysis represents the findings of a national survey of 800 voters designed to reflect the likely 2018 Jewish electorate. Interviews were conducted online though a randomly selected panel October 2-11, 2018. The sample utilized a matching method to reflect the Jewish electorate; all respondents were screened for Jewish identity and likely participation in the Nov. 2018 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups). This survey was conducted on behalf of the Jewish Electorate Institute. Our just completed national survey reveals substantial antipathy toward Donald Trump, his policies and his party among American Jews. The community plans to vote Democratic in vast numbers both in 2018 and 2020. While Jewish voters approve of Trump’s handling of US-Israeli relations by a small margin, this does very little to increase support for Trump in the Jewish community, which is focused on a wide variety of mostly domestic issues in this election. The Lion’s Share Of Jewish Voters Identify As Democratic And Liberal Large majorities of Jewish voters identify as Democrats and as liberals; and they plan to vote Democratic in upcoming elections. More than two-thirds (68%) of Jewish voters identify as Democrats, while only a quarter (25%) identify as Republicans. Overall, 47% of Americans identify as Democrats and A Large Majority Of Jewish Voters 44% as Republicans according to Gallup’s recent Identify As Democratic And Liberal survey. Party Identification Ideology 100% 100% Thus, Jewish identification +43 +35 with Democrats is over 20 80% 80% points higher than for 68% 64% Americans as a whole, while Jews are also about 20 points 60% 60% less likely to consider themselves Republicans. This 40% 40% 29% 40 point advantage in 25% Democratic identification has 20% 20% been common for decades. 7% 7% 0% 0% Likewise, 64% of Jewish Democrat Republican Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative voters consider themselves to be liberals, while only 29% call themselves conservatives. The Mellman Group, Inc. (October 2018) American Jews Nearly Three-Quarters Of Jews Would Vote For A Overwhelmingly Support Democrat For Congress And For President Democratic Candidates Thinking about the 2020 election for If the election for U.S. Congress in your President, do you think you will vote for district were held today, would you vote Jewish voters are planning to the Democratic candidate or Republican for the Democrat or the Republican? cast ballots for Democrats in Donald Trump? Congressional races this year, 100% 100% and for President in 2020. By a 80% 74% 80% 74% 74% to 26% margin, Jewish voters say they will vote for the 60% 60% Democratic candidate for Congress in their district this 40% 40% year. 26% 26% 20% 20% Similarly, when considering the 0% 0% 2020 Presidential election, 74% Democratic Republican Democratic Donald say they will vote for a Candidate Candidate Candidate Trump Democratic candidate, while just 26% will vote for Donald Trump. Indeed, President Trump is Obama And Biden Are Very Popular Among distinctly unpopular with Jewish Voters, While Trump Is Widely Disliked American Jews, more than three-quarters (76%) of whom Trump Favorability Obama Favorability Biden Favorability hold an unfavorable view of him, while just 23% express 100% 100% 100% favorable opinions. On average 76% 42% of Americans have 80% 80% 72% 80% 74% favorable views of Trump, with 55% unfavorable. 60% 60% 60% By contrast, Democratic figures 40% 40% 40% 28% 26% like Barack Obama (72% 23% favorable, 28% unfavorable) 20% 20% 20% and Joe Biden (74% favorable, 26% unfavorable) are well- 0% 0% 0% liked by Jewish voters. Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable 2 The Mellman Group, Inc. (October 2018) Jewish Voters Are Critical Of Trump’s Job Performance Overall Though A Bare Majority Approve Of His Handling Of US-Israel Relations Overall just 25% of Large Majorities Disapprove of Trump’s Handling Of Nearly Every Issue American Jews approve of the job Trump is doing as Disapprove Approve President, while 75% Overall Trump Job Approval 75% 25% disapprove. Here too Jews US-Israel relations 49% 51% prove far more hostile to Moving US embassy to Jerusalem 56% 44% Trump than the population at The economy 61% 39% large. On average, about 43% US relations with the Palestinians 38% 62% of Americans overall approve Taxes 69% 31% of the job the President is Anti-Semitism -70% 30% doing, while 53% disapprove. The Iran nuclear deal 70% 30% Foreign policy 72% 28% Large majorities of Jews Immigration 73% 27% disapprove of Trump’s Supreme Court nominations 74% 26% handling of every issue with Gun safety 75% 25% one exception: US-Israel The environment 76% 24% relations where they divide 22% Healthcare 78% evenly (51% approve, 49% -85% -65% -45% -25% -5% 15% 35% 55% disapprove). Most of those 1 who feel positively about his handling of US-Israel relations are those who support him more broadly. Just 35% of those who disapprove Trump’s performance overall, approve of the way he is handling Israel. In every other arena there is massive disapproval. Indeed, as the graph indicates, 70% or more of Jewish voters disapprove of his handling of anti-Semitism, the Iran nuclear deal, foreign policy, immigration, Supreme Court nominations, gun safety, the environment and healthcare. Over sixty percent (62%) disapprove of Trump’s handling of US relations with the Palestinians. Trump’s Policy On Israel Does Little To Generate Support For Him Among Jewish Voters While a bare majority (51%) of Jewish voters approve of the way the President is handling US-Israel relations, very few are willing to support him on that basis alone. Only 6% of Jewish voters say Trump’s Israel policy will cause them to consider voting for him despite their disagreements with him on other important issues. Another 20% say they “support President Trump’s policy on Israel, but I disagree with him on too many other important issues, so I will not consider voting for him.” Twenty-one percent support Trump’s polices in general and over half (51%) oppose him across the board. In total, more than 7 in 10 Jewish voters (71%) say they will not consider voting for Trump in 2020. In addition, American Jews see Democrats as a pro-Israel party. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Jewish voters believe Democrats are “pro-Israel,” including 84% of those who identify themselves as Democrats. 3 The Mellman Group, Inc. (October 2018) Jewish Voters Weigh Many – Mostly Domestic – Issues When Deciding How To Vote While 92% of American Jews consider themselves “pro-Israel,” and a significant number said a candidate’s support for Israel was an important consideration for them, it is clearly just one of many issues they will consider. Just over half (52%) said that “whether the candidate supports Israel” is at least “very important” to them, ranking well below a number of other issues, including “the kind of Supreme Court Justices the candidate will support” (90% at least very important—a number possibly inflated somewhat as a result of the contentious Kavanaugh confirmation taking place while this poll was fielding), the economy and jobs (87%), “protecting Medicare and Social Security” (84% at least very important), “making quality affordable healthcare available to every American” (83% at least very important) and “making taxes more fair” (80%). Again, since the vast majority of Jews are themselves “pro-Israel” (92%) and since they see Democrats as a pro-Israel party, there is no particular reason this should emerge as a critical voting issue compared to those on which real differences between the parties are widely perceived. Jewish Voters Consider While Most Jewish Voters Are “Pro-Israel” A Majority Are Themselves Pro-Israel, Critical Of At Least Some Israeli Government Policies Though Many Are Critical Which of the following best describes you? Are you… Of The Current Israeli Generally pro-Israel and supportive of the current Israeli government’s policies Government Generally pro-Israel but also critical of some of the current Israeli government’s policies Generally pro-Israel but also critical of many of the current Israeli government’s policies Most Jewish voters (92%) Generally not pro-Israel consider themselves to be 70% “generally pro-Israel,” but 59% Pro-Israel / Critical Of At Least Some Government Policies fewer than a third (32%) say 60% that they are also supportive of 50% the current Israeli 40% 35% 32% government’s policies. A 30% 24% majority (59%) say that they 20% are “pro-Israel,” but critical of 10% at least some Israeli 3% 0% government policies, with 24% Pro-Israel – Supportive Pro-Israel - Critical Pro-Israel - Critical Generally not critical of many of the of Policies of Some Policies of Many Policies pro-Israel government’s policies. Conclusion American Jews remain fiercely loyal to the Democratic Party, which they see as pro-Israel and also as representing their views on a wide range of issues, both foreign and domestic. They offer negative assessments of President Trump and nearly all his polices, and prioritize domestic issues in deciding which candidate to support. Jews will once again be voting for Democrats in overwhelming numbers next month. 4 .
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