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COUNTRY REPORT Burkina Faso Niger 3rd quarter 1998 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Jeremy Eagle Tel: (44.171) 830 1183 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases Microfilm FT Profile (UK) NewsEdge Corporation (US) World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Tel: (1.781) 229 3000 Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (US) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 CD-ROM LEXIS-NEXIS (US) The Dialog Corporation (US) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 SilverPlatter (US) M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1998 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1366-4115 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Burkina Faso 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 6 Outlook for 1998-99 8 Review 8 The political scene 14 The economy 15 Agriculture and livestock 17 Mining and energy 18 Foreign trade, aid and payments Niger 19 Political structure 20 Economic structure 21 Outlook for 1998-99 22 Review 22 The political scene 27 Economic policy 28 The economy 28 Agriculture 29 Energy 30 Aid news 32 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 7 Burkina Faso: forecast summary 18 Burkina Faso: French aid to Burkina Faso 32 Burkina Faso: quarterly indicators of economic activity 32 Niger: quarterly indicators of economic activity 33 Burkina Faso and Niger: main commodities traded 34 Burkina Faso and Niger: direction of trade 35 Burkina Faso and Niger: French trade List of figures 8 Burkina Faso: gross domestic product 8 Burkina Faso: real exchange rates 22 Niger: gross domestic product 22 Niger: real exchange rates EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 3 July 27th 1998 Summary 3rd quarter 1998 Burkina Faso Outlook for 1998-99: President Compaoré will favour a conciliatory ap- proach to try to ensure that the opposition takes part in forthcoming elections. Meanwhile, civil servants will maintain their opposition to public-sector re- forms. Cotton is likely to continue to record strong growth, while gold also has the potential to boost GDP growth in 1998. The political scene: Defying popular discontent, the government has imple- mented key pay reforms in the public sector. The main opposition alliance has rejected what was dubbed an independent electoral commission by parlia- ment, and has threatened to boycott the presidential election. Mr Yaméogo has been sworn in as president of the opposition ADF-RDA. President Compaoré hosted the OAU summit in Ouagadougou. The economy: Real GDP growth reached 5.5% in 1997. The Bretton Woods institutions have praised the government’s management of the economy. Poor harvests have pushed up food prices, while cotton output has continued to break all records, thanks to significant investment and attractive incentives for farmers. Gold production has been disappointing. While formal development assistance from France has declined, bilateral trade has increased. Niger Outlook for 1998-99: An already shaky political environment could deterio- rate still further in the short term. Fresh local elections will be held in Novem- ber under the scrutiny of international observers and the opposition. The government’s programme of economic reforms will benefit from new struc- tural funds from the IMF, World Bank and EU. Famine will remain a constant preoccupation for the government. Real GDP growth in 1998 is expected to be around 4%. The political scene: New strikes and violent demonstrations punctuated the months of April and May, despite fresh calls for calm from the unions and the EU. Two important parties, the PUND and the PNA, have left the ruling coali- tion. The announcement that local elections will be held in November has somewhat assuaged the opposition’s anger. Official harassment of journalists has continued. The 1995 peace agreement with Tuaregs in north Niger has been completed. The economy: The IMF has resumed payments under the 1996-98 ESAF, following recent efforts by the government to control spending and reform the public sector. The IMF has projected real GDP growth of 4% for 1998, com- pared with a low 3% in 1997. Year-on-year inflation rose by almost 8% in June. Emergency food stocks remain dangerously low and the threat of famine is increasing. The liberalisation of the oil sector is under way. Germany has resumed aid suspended more than two years ago. Editor: Charlotte Vaillant All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 4 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Political structure Official name République démocratique du Burkina Faso Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on constitution adopted by referendum in June 1991 National legislature Bicameral: the Assemblée nationale of 111 deputies, elected for a five-year term by universal suffrage in a single round; and the Chambre des représentants, of 178 nominated members National elections December 1991 (presidential) and May 1997 (legislative); next elections due in 1998 (presidential) and 2002 (legislative) Head of state President, elected for a seven-year term by universal suffrage National government Council of Ministers, appointed by the prime minister, who is appointed by the president; last reshuffled June 1997 Main political parties Congrès pour la démocratie et le progrès (CDP, 101 seats); Parti pour la démocratie et le progrès (PDP, six seats); Rassemblement démocratique africain-Alliance pour la démocratie et la fédération (RDA-ADF; the RDA and ADF merged in May 1998 and have four seats). The CDP forms the government President Blaise Compaoré Prime minister Kadré Désiré Ouédraogo Ministers of state At the Presidency Arsène Bongnessan Yé Environment & water Salif Diallo Key ministers Agriculture Michel Koutaba Civil service & institutional development Paramanga Ernest Yonli Culture & communications Mahamoudou Ouédraogo Defence Albert D Millogo Economy & finance Tertius Zongo Employment, labour & social security Elie Sarré Energy & mines Elie Ouédraogo Foreign affairs Ablassé Ouédraogo Health Alain Ludovic Tou Industry, commerce & artisanry Idrissa Zampaligré Infrastructure, housing & town planning Joseph Kaboré Primary education & mass literacy Baworo Seydou Sanou Territorial administration Yéro Boly Transport & tourism Bédouma Alain Yoda Women’s promotion Alice Tiendrébégeo Central bank governor Charles Konan Banny EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 Burkina Faso 5 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997a GDP at market prices (CFAfr bn) 796.0 1,030.2 1,102.5 1,231.5b 1,344.6 Real GDP growth (%) 0.5 1.0 4.8 6.1 5.5b Consumer price inflation (av; %) 0.5 25.2 7.4 6.2 2.8b Population (m) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 Exports fob ($ m) 226.1 215.6 275.6 304.5b n/a Imports fob ($ m) 469.1 344.3 485.4 583.5b n/a Current-account balance ($ m) –71.1 14.9 8.6 –103.0b n/a Reserves excl gold ($ m) 382.3 237.2 347.4 338.6 332.8c Total external debt ($ m) 1,117 1,129 1,267 1,294 n/a External debt-service ratio, paid (%) 8.3 12.1 11.8 10.8 n/a Raw cotton productiond (’000 tonnes) 116.9 143.1 151.2 206.0 290.0 Exchange rate (av; CFAfr:$) 283.2 555.2 499.2 511.6 583.7e July 24th 1998 CFAfr596.5:$1 Origins of gross domestic product 1995 % of total Components of gross domestic product 1995 % of total Agriculture 32.9 Private consumption 78.5 Industry 26.4 Government consumption 14.5 Manufacturing 20.1 Gross domestic investment 22.8 Services 40.6 Exports of goods & services 14.5 GDP at factor cost 100.0 Imports of goods & services –30.3 GDP at market prices 100.0 Principal exports 1996b $ m Principal imports 1995 $ m Cotton 110 Capital goods 151 Gold 18 Food 70 Petroleum products 51 Main destinations of exports 1996f % of total Main origins of imports 1996f % of total France 9.3 France 21.7 Taiwan 8.8 Côte d’Ivoire 14.2 Italy 7.7 Togo 3.9 Brazil 4.6 Nigeria 2.9 a EIU estimates.
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