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Monitoring Report 1 April 2013 - 31 March 2014

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Monitoring Report 1 April 2013 - 31 March 2014 Monitoring Report 1 April 2013 - 31 March 2014 Published January 2015 Contents Introduction 1 Map of Braintree District 2 Local Development Scheme and Interim Planning Policy Statement 3 Profile of the District population 7 District population and households change 10 Health 18 Economy, employment and travel to work 19 Business Development 36 Town Centres 42 The supply of new homes 43 Conservation Areas and Listed Buildings 77 Policy Performance Conclusions 78 Appendices: Appendix 1: Schedule of sites included in assessment of Five Year Supply of sites for new homes 2015-2020 Appendix 2: Schedule of sites included in assessment of supply of new homes 2014-2026 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2014 Detailed Contents Schedule Page Figure 1 Map of Braintree District 2 Interim Planning Policy Statement 4 Table 1 Population of Braintree District June 2013 7 Population age structure, Braintree District compared Table 2 7 with Essex, East of England and England averages Population and number of homes in Braintree District by Table 3 8 Parish, 2011 Census Population and number of homes by Ward, 2011 Table 4 9 Census, and estimated population by Ward 2013 Estimated population change Braintree District by year Table 5 10 2001/2002 to 2012/2013 Components of estimated population change Braintree Table 6 10 District 2001/2002 to 2012/2013 Braintree District population trend, 2001/2002 to Figure 2 11 2012/2013, components of change Migration statistics Braintree District 2005/2006 to Table 7 12 2012/2013 Top 10 sources of in-migration according to the 2011 Figure 3 12 Census, Braintree District: Top 10 destinations of out-migration to other parts of the Figure 4 13 UK according to the 2011 Census, Braintree District: Future population of Braintree District, according to the Figure 5 14 five most recent sets of ONS projections Braintree District, 2010/2012 change: ONS 2010-based Table 8 14 projections compared with ONS estimated actual change Estimated annual average dwelling requirement 2014- Table 9 2033 based on Edge Analytics Greater Essex 16 Demographic Forecasts, Phase 6 Table 10 Household composition, 2011 Census 17 Table 11: Labour Supply 2012/2013, Annual Population Table 11 19 Survey Economic activity rate trend 2004/05 to 2013/14, Annual Figure 6 19 Population Survey Table 12 Percentage unemployment April 2013-March 2014 20 Table 13 Unemployment trend 2013/2014 Braintree District 20 Claimant count unemployment, Braintree District, 2013 - Figure 7 20 2014 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2014 Longer term unemployment trend Braintree District, Figure 8 21 Claimant count January 2006 to July 2014 Job Seeker Allowance Claimants April 2014, Braintree Table 14 District compared to East of England Region and UK 21 averages Unemployment rate, Braintree District, Region and Great Figure 9 21 Britain, 2006 to 2014 Job Seekers Allowance claimants, Greater Essex Figure 10 22 districts compared: unemployment rate as at April 2014 Change in number of JSA claimants in Greater Essex Table15 22 April 2013-April 2014 Qualifications of Braintree District residents aged 16-64: Table 16 23 Jan 2013-Dec 2013 Job Density 2012: Braintree District compared to East of Table 17 23 England Region and GB Table 18 Job Density trend Braintree District 2001-2012 24 Greater Essex districts: % change in population aged 16- Table 19 24 74 during workday, 2011 Census Greater Essex districts: Net commuting according to Table 20 EEFM 2014 Baseline forecasts, and according to 2011 25 Census Travel to Work data Commuting out of Braintree District: Top 10 destinations, Figure 11 25 2011 Census Commuting into Braintree District: Top 10 sources, 2011 Figure 12 26 Census Estimated number of people working in the area, Greater Table 21 Essex districts, 2011: 2011 Census compared to East of 27 England Baseline Forecasts 2014 East of England Forecasting Model: 2012, 2013 and Table 22 27 2014 Baseline Forecasts compared, Braintree District Employment, unemployment and net out-commuting Table 23 according to the Census (and unemployment according 28 to the Nomis claimant count), March 2011 EEFM 2014 Baseline Forecasts and Cambridge Table 24 Econometrics 2014 projections compared, Estimated 28 total number of jobs, Greater Essex districts, 2011: Forecast total employment (‘000 jobs) Braintree District Figure 13 2001-2025, EEFM Baseline Forecasts 2014 compared to 29 Cambridge Econometrics forecasts 2014 Estimated/Forecast employment (‘000 jobs) Braintree Table 25 District 2001-25 according to EEFM Baseline Forecasts 29 2014 and Cambridge Econometrics Projections 2014 Spring 2014 EEFM Baseline Employment Forecasts Table 26 30 2011-2031, Greater Essex districts EEFM 2014 Baseline Forecasts of Employment (‘000 Figure 14 30 jobs): Greater Essex Projected employment (‘000 jobs) Braintree District: Figure 15 31 comparison of different forecasts: EEFM Baseline Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2014 Forecasts 2012, 2013, 2014; and Cambridge Econometrics 2014 Table 27 Industry of employment of residents, March 2011 31 Number of persons working in Braintree District by Table 28 32 industry of employment, 2011 Forecast employment change by sector (‘000 jobs) Figure 16 Braintree District 2012-2031, according to EEFM 33 Baseline Forecasts 2014 Forecast employment change by sector (‘000 jobs) Table 29 Braintree District 2012-2031, according to EEFM 34 Baseline Forecasts 2014 Braintree residents who were self-employed, 2004-2012, Table 30 35 and compared with regional average Table 31 Non-residential floorspace completed 2013/2014 36 Non-residential floorspace completed : Location of Table 32 37 development by Use Class 2013/2014 Non-residential floorspace completed : Location of Figure 17 37 development by Use Class 2013/2014 Table 33 Net retail floorspace development: 2009-2014 38 Table 34 Net office floorspace development: 2009-2014 38 Table 35 Net B1/B2/B8 floorspace development: 2009-2014 38 Net change in floorspace (sq. m) from development, Figure 18 38 Braintree District Potential sq.m. of non-residential floorspace (with Table 36 planning permission) identified as at 31st March 2014 by 39 Use Class Location of potential non-residential floorspace (with Table 37 40 planning permission) identified as at 31st March 2014 Location of Potential Development (with planning Figure 19 40 permission) by Use Class, 2014 Total remaining land identified for non-residential uses as Table 38 41 at 31st March 2014 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 39 Development of 'town centre uses' floorspace (sq. m) 42 2013/2014 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 40 42 Development sites: Use Class A1 as at 31st March 2014 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 41 42 Development sites: Use Class A2 as at 31st March 2014 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 42 42 Development sites: Use Class B1a as at 31st March 2014 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 43 42 Development sites: Use Class D2 as at 31st March 2014 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2014 Estimated dwelling stock Braintree District at 31 March Table 44 43 2013 Change in number of homes 2001-2013, Greater Essex Table 45 43 districts (rounded to nearest ten) Increase in number of homes, 2001-2013, Greater Essex Figure 20 44 districts Percentage increase in number of homes, 2001-2013, Figure 21 44 Greater Essex, England, South East and East of England Table 46 Vacant homes Braintree District 2004-2013 44 Braintree District: Vacant and long term vacant homes Figure 22 45 2004-2013 Table 47 Vacant homes October 2013, Essex Districts 45 Change in median house price in Braintree District Figure 23 46 compared with the change in the England average Change in median house price in Essex Districts, 1996- Figure 24 47 2012 Ratio of median house price to median earnings Essex Figure 25 48 Districts (2013) Relationship between Braintree District house price to Figure 26 earnings ratio and England average house price to 48 earnings ratio, 1997-2013 Ratio of median house price to median earnings Table 48 48 Braintree District 1997-2013 Ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile Figure 27 earnings, Braintree District, Essex and England, 1997- 49 2012 Ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile Table 49 earnings, Braintree District, Essex and England, 1997- 49 2012 Net supply of homes Braintree District 2001-2011: Table 50 development monitoring results compared with CLG 51 figures adjusted to inter-censal change Figure 28 The supply of new homes Braintree District 2001 to 2014 51 Table 51 Windfall site permissions, Braintree District 57 Braintree District provision for new homes: Summary of Table 52 progress so far, Local Development Framework Core 60 Strategy Table 53 Forecast supply over the 5-year supply period 2014-2019 61 The Managed Delivery Target over the 5-year supply Table 54 61 period Existing identified supply and projected completion of Table 55 63 new homes 2014-2026 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2014 The Managed Delivery Target and the LDF Core Table 56 Strategy: A: 2001-2014 dwelling supply based on 64 development monitoring results The Managed Delivery (MD) Target and the LDF Core Table 57 Strategy: B: 2001-2014 dwelling supply revised to take 65 into account the Census results Figure 29 The Managed Delivery Target 2001-2026
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