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To Protect, Serve, and Keep the Peace? the Influence of Police on Civil War

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To Protect, Serve, and Keep the Peace? the Influence of Police on Civil War TO PROTECT, SERVE, AND KEEP THE PEACE? THE INFLUENCE OF POLICE ON CIVIL WAR by SHON A MCCORMICK B.S., The United States Military Academy, 1994 M.A., Kansas State University, 2008 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Security Studies College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2013 Abstract This dissertation advances the study of civil war by addressing the means through which states’ police forces may affect the probability of civil war onset. I improve upon extant work on civil war and state capacity by considering the ability of police to act autonomously from the state and operate as a distinct element of the state’s security sector. The project consists of four substantive chapters. One chapter addresses the role of police capacity in preventing civil war and determines that simple measures of police strength do influence the probability of civil war onset. Also, anocracies require a greater number of police to prevent civil war. The next chapter tests whether police repression could lead to civil war by creating grievances among the populace. Tests of this hypothesis determine that while police repression can increase the probability of civil war, it is not as powerful a predictor as state repression overall. The third chapter looks at the effect of the mode of organization of police forces and contains two contrasting hypotheses. The first proposes that police force centralization increases the probability of civil war onset by increasing the likelihood that the state and police view the utility of employing repression more favorably. The other proposes that centralization reduces the probability of civil war onset by making the police more effective. Nevertheless, neither hypothesis yields significant outcomes when tested. The final chapter employs two case studies about the experience of police serving as military during a civil war. I find that in both cases, police service in what are typically military functions did tend to make the police more repressive after the war, which contributed to reoccurrence by giving dissidents a cause around which to rally and by reducing the dissidents’ perceptions of the utility of non-violent means of protest. I conclude the study with a summary of the major findings, suggestions for further study, and recommendations for policy makers. TO PROTECT, SERVE, AND KEEP THE PEACE? THE INFLUENCE OF POLICE ON CIVIL WAR by SHON A MCCORMICK B.S., The United States Military Academy, 1994 M.A., Kansas State University, 2008 A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Security Studies College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2013 Approved by: Major Professor Andrew G Long Abstract This dissertation advances the study of civil war by addressing the means through which states’ police forces may affect the probability of civil war onset. I improve upon extant work on civil war and state capacity by considering the ability of police to act autonomously from the state and operate as a distinct element of the state’s security sector. The project consists of four substantive chapters. One chapter addresses the role of police capacity in preventing civil war and determines that simple measures of police strength do influence the probability of civil war onset. Also, anocracies require a greater number of police to prevent civil war. The next chapter tests whether police repression could lead to civil war by creating grievances among the populace. Tests of this hypothesis determine that while police repression can increase the probability of civil war, it is not as powerful a predictor as state repression overall. The third chapter looks at the effect of the mode of organization of police forces and contains two contrasting hypotheses. The first proposes that police force centralization increases the probability of civil war onset by increasing the likelihood that the state and police view the utility of employing repression more favorably. The other proposes that centralization reduces the probability of civil war onset by making the police more effective. Nevertheless, neither hypothesis yields significant outcomes when tested. The final chapter employs two case studies about the experience of police serving as military during a civil war. I find that in both cases, police service in what are typically military functions did tend to make the police more repressive after the war, which contributed to reoccurrence by giving dissidents a cause around which to rally and by reducing the dissidents’ perceptions of the utility of non-violent means of protest. I conclude the study with a summary of the major findings, suggestions for further study, and recommendations for policy makers. Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. x List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ xii Dedication ..................................................................................................................................... xv Chapter 1 - Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 What is Civil War and Why Does it Occur? ............................................................................... 3 Definition of Civil War ........................................................................................................... 3 Civil War Onset ...................................................................................................................... 4 Stages of Civil War ............................................................................................................. 4 Spectrum of Internal Instability .......................................................................................... 5 What are Police and What do They Do? ..................................................................................... 7 The Approach of this Study ...................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 2 - Police Capacity and Civil War ................................................................................... 14 State Capacity, Police, and Civil War ....................................................................................... 15 Mobilization of Sanctions ..................................................................................................... 18 Threat and Surveillance ........................................................................................................ 19 Research Design ....................................................................................................................... 24 Dependent Variables ............................................................................................................. 24 Independent Variables........................................................................................................... 25 Actual Capacity ................................................................................................................. 25 Bias Effects ................................................................................................................... 30 Threat Capacity ................................................................................................................. 31 Bias Effects ................................................................................................................... 32 Controls ................................................................................................................................. 32 Models ................................................................................................................................... 35 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 36 Results for H1a: Increasing police actual capacity reduces the probability of civil war onset ............................................................................................................................................... 37 v Results for H1b: Increasing police visible capacity reduces the probability of civil war onset, but is conditional on regime type. Increases in police capacity in anocracies should exhibit a smaller effect. ......................................................................................................... 40 Results for H1c: Increasing police visible capacity reduces the probability of civil war onset, but is conditional on previous levels of internal violence. Police are less effective in preventing civil war when past levels of violence are higher. .............................................. 44 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 49 Chapter 3 - Repression and Civil War .......................................................................................... 51 Repression in Theory ................................................................................................................ 51 Police as a Repressive
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