Comparative Connections a Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Comparative Connections A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Regional Overview: (Almost) Everyone Pivots to the Asia-Pacific Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS A trifecta of international gatherings – the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders Meeting in Beijing, the East Asia Summit (EAS) in Nay Pyi Taw, and the G-20 gathering in Brisbane – had heads of state from around the globe, including US President Barack Obama, flocking to the Asia-Pacific as 2014 was winding to a close. North Korea was not included in these confabs but its leaders (although not the paramount one) were taking their charm offensive almost everywhere else in an (unsuccessful) attempt to block a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Pyongyang‘s human rights record. More successful was Pyongyang‘s (alleged) attempt to undermine and embarrass Sony Studios to block the release of a Hollywood film featuring the assassination of Kim Jong Un. The democratic pageant The United States. The Republican Party walloped the Democratic Party in midterm elections, retaking control of the Senate and is now running both houses of Congress for the first time in eight years. The GOP victory was forecast by most analysts; what the party will do with it is not so clear. Optimists argue that Republicans will try to prove their governing credentials and work with the president and moderate Democrats to move forward on consensus issues such as trade agreements – the chief opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Free Trade Agreement has been from Democrats, although GOP support for trade deals cannot be taken for granted – tax reform, and perhaps even immigration legislation. Pessimists counter that hardliners in both parties will focus on principles rather than pragmatism, with Democrats joining GOP rejectionists to bring Congress to a halt. The GOP could also focus on symbolic votes to repeal Obama‘s legacy health care program or congressional investigations that aim to undermine former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton‘s presidential prospects in 2016. The president won‘t be twiddling his thumbs in the meantime. In the two months since the election, he has taken executive action to push immigration reform, normalize relations with Cuba, and signed a historic climate deal with China. Action is expected on Environmental Protection Agency regulations and perhaps even campaign finance. A nuclear deal with Iran may also be in the works. Forget the notion of a chastened, lame duck president: it appears that Obama will be busy during his last two years in office. Indonesia. In Southeast Asia‘s largest democracy, the news was not encouraging. In October, the old guard took its revenge on Joko Widodo, who bested retired Gen. Prabowo Subianto in July‘s presidential elections, by restoring the old practice by which local leaders such as mayors and governors were selected by local parliaments, rather than open voting as was adopted in 2005. In Regional Overview January 2015 theory, the change was made to save money; in reality the changes prevent newcomers like the new president from rising to power. Local parliaments are controlled by established parties and ensuring that they select local leaders allows them to control the political landscape. The bill was passed in the final hours of the Parliament‘s five-year term with a 2 AM vote. Since Prabowo and his allies have a majority in the new Parliament, they can override any procedural challenge to the legislation in the new legislature. Recognizing the danger the vote would do to his legacy, outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono subsequently repealed the legislation but the new legislature was scheduled to vote again in early January to reinstate the bill. Taiwan. The ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party took a beating in local elections for positions ranging from village chiefs to mayors. The KMT held 15 of Taiwan‘s 22 cities and counties before the vote; when the dust cleared, it held just six, and lost control of Taipei, a KMT stronghold for the last 16 years. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) controls 13 cities, including four of Taiwan‘s six special municipalities, the island‘s largest cities. Three cities went to independents. The results have been heralded as a vote of no-confidence in President Ma Ying-jeou, especially his cross-strait policy that seeks better ties to China. The KMT has challenged that interpretation, insisting that local issues were on the ballot. Both are true. The vote was a testimony to the unease that young voters feel about their future and a vote of no confidence in the KMT‘s management of the economy. At the same time, the DPP cannot take the win for granted. Its China policy remains a source of great speculation and finding a middle ground that will satisfy its deep-green supporters, independents, and China will be difficult. Hong Kong. It took 79 days for the the Occupy Central movement to burn out, but it ended with the protest sites shut down, the final demonstrators sent home, and a deep sense of unease. The Hong Kong government (and the Beijing government behind it) was relieved that the protests ended without significant violence, but the ill will and larger questions remain. The ostensible object of the protest – the right of residents of Hong Kong to select their own leader; Beijing insisted that a committee would screen all candidates – was a proxy for a more general grievance about the Special Administrative Region‘s future. Residents fear that opportunities are shrinking and that connections to the mainland determine success, not hard work or education. The decisions that animated the Occupy movement also hardened Taiwanese sentiment against reunification. The ―one country, two systems‖ model that was to induce the island to return to the mainland was exposed as rhetoric. While an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese had long rejected the formula, the recent Hong Kong events put yet another nail in that coffin. Japan. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have their election win; a mandate is another matter, however. The election was mostly a reminder to Japanese voters of how few choices they have and the poverty of the opposition. That said, the long-term results are not the obvious. The far right end of the political spectrum was weakened, the left- leaning Komeito party was strengthened in the ruling coalition, and the opposition DPJ might have finally hit bottom and begun its rebound. Prime Minister Abe has pledged to double down on Abenomics, his economic agenda, and said he will press for more changes to national security and defense policy, including constitutional reform, although Komei‘s strong showing in the Regional Overview January 2015 ballot will make that harder. Japan‘s economic outlook will be the barometer for his political future: the country is again in recession and the numbers – inflation, wages, productivity – are going the wrong way. Abe has bought his party two more years in power; whether he is the prime minister throughout that term is another matter. Thailand. The Thai junta continues to consolidate its grip on power. The country remains under martial law and democracy supporters have been purged. Government criticism is banned, as are demonstrations, along with public gatherings of more than five people. The junta has reportedly forced the cancellation of university seminars on constitutional and political issues. The media is under intense scrutiny and journalists have been told to refrain from asking some questions, such as the wealth of certain government officials. In late December, the deputy prime minister revealed that there would be no new elections until February 2016 at the earliest. Previously Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha had said the ballot would be held around October 2015. In the meantime, a new constitution will be written, in theory by September 2015. It must then be approved by the king, and laws written. The king‘s health remains a question. For all the junta‘s efforts at repression, there are mounting concerns about its ability to contain the situation in Thailand. APEC Leaders Meeting: Xi’s shindig The November 2014 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders Meeting marked APEC‘s 25th anniversary and the 22nd economic leaders get-together. The meeting was a triumph for China and President Xi Jinping — the choreography of the entire gathering underscored Chinese power, the agenda reflected Beijing‘s concerns, and Xi emerged as a regional leader perhaps without peer. As always, APEC remains divided, torn between competing visions – one grand, one technocratic – and different needs of member economies. The meeting produced agreement to study the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP), originally a US initiative that Beijing championed to demonstrate its commitment to Asia-Pacific trade and (it is theorized) to slow progress toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. China originally sought to gain agreement to pursue the FTAAP, but the US objected and the compromise was the feasibility study. The group approved initiatives on global value chains, supply chains, and capacity building. It also adopted a blueprint to promote regional connectivity by 2025 and agreed to a transnational effort that would strengthen cooperation in the fight against corruption, a high priority for China. Among the usual side meetings and bilateral deals, three in particular stand out: the meeting of Xi and Japanese Prime Minister Abe, the summit between Presidents Obama and Xi, and a Xi-Park Guen-hye sit-down that produced a substantive agreement on the China-ROK free trade agreement. A handshake and a grimace. One of the benefits of international meetings is the opportunity for side meetings, including ones that might otherwise be politically difficult to arrange (see Obama‘s trilateral meeting with Prime Minister Abe and President Park Guen-hye along the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit in our May 2014 report).