ExecutiveJuly 1, 2007 Summary - June 30, 2008 Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean

Annual Report

1 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report Executive Summary

Contents Executive Summary...... 1 Climate...... 13 Marine Ecosystems...... 47 Environmental Chemistry...... 77 Coastal Oceanography...... 99 Appendices...... 117 Appendix 1 Senior Fellows and Council Members...... 118 Appendix 2 Task I Events and Visitors 2007 – 2008...... 119 Appendix 3 Task II Personnel/PIs...... 120 Appendix 4 Task III Personnel/PIs...... 121 Appendix 5 Projects by Task...... 123 Appendix 6 Personnel Count...... 126 Appendix 7 Graduate Students...... 127 Appendix 8 Post-Doctoral Research Associates...... 128 Appendix 9 Awards and Honors 2007 – 2008...... 129 Appendix 10 Publications Count...... 131 Appendix 11 Publications...... 132 Appendix 12 Most Cited Publications...... 152 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report Executive Summary

Executive Summary

1 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Introduction

he Joint Institute for the Study of the The Institute continues to grow and has experienced Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), a NOAA change over the past year. After occupying an off- Cooperative Institute at the University of campus location for many years, JISAO acquired Washington,T has completed another successful new space in a building located on the University year of fostering collaborative research under of Washington’s south campus much nearer to its four major research themes: Climate, Marine collaborating units of Oceanography, Marine Affairs, Ecosystems, Environmental Chemistry and Coastal Fisheries, Atmospheric Sciences, Earth and Space Oceanography. These themes encompass the wide Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering and range of interests represented by JISAO and NOAA the Applied Physics Laboratory. The current plan scientists and are closely aligned with NOAA’s strategic is that JISAO will share the building with the new mission and goals. JISAO personnel also work in the and innovative College of the Environment (http:// Emergency Response Division to improve critical coenv.washington.edu/) and with the Program on the response information in emergency situations and Environment, UW’s largest interdisciplinary academic to reduce the human and environmental impacts of program, training both undergraduate and graduate pollution events. Additional JISAO employees work students in environmental studies (http://depts. in Information Technology in software programming, washington.edu/poeweb/). This collocation will allow web management and the development of datasets, increased collaborations across a broader area of the while other members of the JISAO staff provide University and will enhance the research of the NOAA engineering technical support. scientists at Pacific Marine Environmental Lab, the Alaska Fisheries Science Center and the Northwest JISAO’s research is at the forefront of investigations on Fisheries Science Center. climate change, global warming, ocean acidification, fisheries assessments and tsunami forecasting. JISAO’s JISAO global and regional topics of concern and most important resource is its staff. Recognition of interest to the public include: ability and accomplishment came in many ways this • enhancing research capabilities of UW and NOAA year and will be described in each theme section as well scientists, utilizing the diverse array of scientific as listed in Appendix 9, Award and Honors 2007-08, and technical expertise and specialized research Appendix 11, JISAO research publications for 2007-08, facilities within both institutions; and Appendix 12, most cited publications for the past • facilitating the training of the next generation of year. JISAO personnel are featured in Spotlight articles NOAA’s scientists by capitalizing on the UW’s on the main page at www.jisao.washington.edu and extraordinary strength in the geosciences and its archived at http://www.jisao.washington.edu/JISAO_ degree granting authority; admin/spotlight/index.html. JISAO media coverage • providing UW students the opportunity to is tracked in the News section of the website (current participate in NOAA research, thereby enriching articles on the main page at www.jisao.washington.edu their educational experience; and news archives at http://www.jisao.washington.edu/ • offering educational and outreach activities to JISAO_admin/newsarchives/index.html.) our local and regional communities through K-12 programs, student internships, training and recruitment programs, through media contacts and publications; and, • developing relationships with government agencies and industries in the state of Washington and throughout the Pacific Northwest with a view toward assisting NOAA in tailoring its climate forecasts and assessments to meet the needs of stakeholders. Previous page: Scientists and crewmembers of the US Coast Guard icebreaker Healy deploy a buoy for the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP, http://iabp.apl.washington.edu). Photo was taken by Andy Armstrong, NOAA. 2 Executive Summary

Science Highlights Climate

ISAO climate research has several major focal Science in the Earth System (CSES), which includes points: increasing understanding of the global the Climate Impacts Group (CIG). Interest in climate ocean through modeling and monitoring; change and climate impacts has increased dramatically, improvingJ knowledge of ocean-atmosphere coupling; a situation which has been reflected by the level of understanding atmospheric climate trends; and activity and the worldwide recognition of JISAO applying climate information in regional decision- research in these areas. The CIG has been funded at making processes. Much of the research in the first two the level of $1.5 million by Washington State to carry areas makes use of data from moored buoy arrays and out the Washington State Climate Change Impacts ARGO floats; participation in research cruises is also a Assessment. This assessment is the most detailed vitally important aspect. assessment to date of climate change impacts to Washington State. It was funded in spring 2007 by the Arctic ice extent was one of the key environmental Washington State Legislature under House Bill 1303 stories of the past year due to the substantial decline in and is being carried out jointly with partners from Arctic sea ice extent observed in the summer of 2007. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Washington Data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme State University. The assessment examines the impacts (IABP) have played a significant role in the detection of climate change on the following major sectors: and documentation of this change over the past several agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, hydrology and water decades. resources, infrastructure, and salmon.

The data illustrate changes in arctic climate and The CIG has completed an assessment of sea level circulation and the relative age of sea ice, all of which rise in the coastal waters of Washington State due to contributed to the abrupt decline in ice extent in the combined effects of global sea level rise and local 2007. These data and related analyses were used by factors such as vertical land deformation and seasonal Department of the Interior Secretary Kempthorne in ocean elevation changes due to atmospheric circulation presentations this year (Figure 1). effects. This report was prepared in collaboration with the Washington Department of Ecology and provides Within JISAO, understanding climate trends and low, medium, and high estimates of sea level rise for applying climate information in the decision making 2050 and 2100 for the Puget Sound Basin, the central process are dominated by the work of the Center for and southern Washington Coast, and the Northwest Olympic Peninsula (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Maps of the age of sea ice presented by Secretary Kempthorne to illustrate the decline of Arctic sea ice and justify the listing of the Polar Bears as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (http://www.doi.gov/secretary/speeches/081405_speech.html). The white areas show the locations of older, thicker sea ice (over 5 years old), the light blue shows areas of younger, thinner sea ice (less than 5 years old), and the blue shows areas of open water in September of 1979, 1989, and 2007. Note the dramatic decrease in the area of older sea ice, the preferred habitat of polar bears. 3 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

A number of staff members were recognized for their participation in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Honored as one of the University of Washington’s ‘Best and Brightest,’ Dr. Philip Mote was selected for a 2008 Distinguished Staff Award (see http://uwnews.org/ uweek/awards2008/profile.asp?id=42236). CLIMOS, a new business venture in climate applications, added Dr. Edward Miles to its board. Dr Eric Salathé was invited by the Thai government to help develop regional climate modeling capability in Thailand, and he spent a month there working with university research groups (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/JISAO_admin/ spotlight/salathe/index.html).

Figure 2. Projected sea level rise in Washington’s water relative to 1980-99, in inches. Shading roughly indicates likelihood.

4 Executive Summary

Marine Ecosystems

arine ecosystems around the world are JISAO scientists seized the opportunity presented suffering stress and collapse due to pollution, by the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC to changing climate, acidification, and over- use these global, coupled atmosphere-ocean model fishing.M JISAO supports a broad spectrum of research projections for regional ecosystem applications. Model aimed at helping to understand these ecosystems hindcasts for the 20th century are used to select and their response to various stresses. Research in models and assign relative weights to produce 21st this area involves investigating the links between century forecasts. The results are providing some of physical, chemical and biological processes in the the first estimates of probable changes in specific fish marine environment; impacts of climate variability populations in association with climate change. For on the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska marine example, model projected changes in springtime winds ecosystems; spatiotemporal distributions, dynamics over the Bering Sea shelf and East China Sea suggest and interactions of aquatic organisms; quantitative benefit to the recruitment of northern rock sole and description of the distributions of aquatic organisms; chub mackerel, respectively. The projected warming distinguishing between climatic and human impacts in western Alaska and pole ward migration of the on ecosystem dynamics; and prediction of climatic Aleutian low are liable to be detrimental to the chum and human impacts on salmon populations in western Alaska. (Figure 3). ecosystem dynamics.

In January 2008, Ms. Kimberly Bahl was awarded the NOAA Team Member of the Month. This award recognizes each month one non- Kimberly Bahl, received the NOAA Federal employee who Team Member of the Month, has made significant January 2008. contributions to NOAA programs, and has demonstrated exceptional and sustained effort toward accomplishment of NOAA’s mission. Ms. Bahl was Figure 3. Projected winds driving cross-shelf transport on the Bering Sea shelf during the period of April-June from CMIP3 general circulation recognized for her efforts in the area of understanding model simulations carried out for IPCC. Onshore-directed (positive) the potential effects of climate change on the dynamics transports during this time of year have been established to be of fish populations. Ms. Bahl helped to create new necessary for high survival rates of northern rock sole during the larval stage (Wilderbuer et al. 2002). The ensemble mean (red) and selected protocols to improve access to hydrographic data and individual model runs (blue, green and yellow) suggest that future made important contributions to recommendations decades will include a tendency towards more favorable winds. to bring a new database on line. Her excellence in web design facilitated efforts to improve the public’s visual comprehension of complex scientific concepts. Ms. Bahl continued to contribute to the success of the North Pacific Ecosystem MetaDatabase, working with project members to add metadata from China into the federation of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization) member countries.

5 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Environmental Chemistry

esearch in mass. An acoustic Doppler environmental current profiler mounted chemistry, on the buoy confirmed whichR is a crucial that the net movement theme within JISAO, through the water during focuses on the ocean the experiment was carbon cycle and ocean negligible. In a third acidification, an area that project, discrete samples is currently receiving of water were collected at extensive recognition depth using an automated and interest. The effect filling technique. Each of ocean acidification bottle in the rosette on marine ecosystems NOAA scientist, Chris Sabine, recovering sample bottles of ocean water configuration (see picture is a particularly vexing on the RV Wecoma. The bottles are filled automatically at various page 7) holds 12 liters of depths. Samples are then analyzed for ocean acidity to assess the health problem because of of ocean water. seawater. When the bottles our substantive lack of are returned to the ship, knowledge about the the contents are analyzed subject. for over a dozen tracers and geochemical properties.

The scale of the ocean acidification problem, as well JISAO atmospheric chemists led an international as the other problems, requires a coordinated national field study in the Arctic as part of the International research program aimed at specific ocean regions to Polar Year. The 40 day research cruise, International address it. Specific accomplishments in the program Chemistry Experiment in the Arctic Lower this year include documenting an expansion of the Troposphere (ICEALOT), investigated sources of extent of corrosive waters along the continental shelf Arctic pollutants, the transport of these pollutants to of the western United States. While these acidic ocean the Arctic, and their climate impact. While providing zones occur naturally due to upwelling and respiration important new data to understand Arctic climate, of marine organisms, their extent is increasing and the the ICEALOT cruise challenged both ship and zones are shallowing – reaching closer to the surface investigators. – threatening fish and other organisms in the near- surface layers. The authors of this study suggest that JISAO and NOAA/PMEL continue to serve the this phenomenon is a result of increasing acidity in scientific community by hosting the International the ocean due to the increasing amount of CO2 in the Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Core Project atmosphere, which then increases the dissolved CO2 in Office, which sponsors major conferences and ocean water and increases ocean water acidity. workshops in any given year. The Hazardous Materials Response Program works to provide emergency The Southern Ocean Gas Exchange (SO GASEX) study responders with high quality and timely scientific was conducted on the NOAA ship Ron Brown from information that address their specific needs. Hazmat February to April 2008, and included several different scientists consider a wide range of potential disasters sampling projects. One project deployed a suite of such as oil spills, releases of hazardous chemicals, sensors on a drifting buoy and throughout the upper and harmful algal blooms. Ocean observing systems, 100 m of the water column. A second project was computer software tools, GIS, and satellite imagery aimed at a Lagrangian study of ocean chemistry. In are all used to supply information to responders and this case, several ten-meter “holey sock” drogues (see guide the selection of response strategies. Their work picture page 7) were put on the line below the buoy to continues to gather national recognition for innovation ensure that the instruments stayed in the same water and communication with stakeholders.

6 Executive Summary

Researchers from PMEL and JISAO deploy a heavily instrumented Recovery of a 24-place rosette package on the NOAA ship Ronald H.

MAPCO2 buoy during the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange cruise in Brown. Each of the gray bottles holds 12 liters of seawater and can be spring 2008. The long gray tube is one of six 10 m “holey sock” drogues closed at any depth determined by the scientists on the ship looking at used to ensure that the equipment stayed in the same water mass real-time feedback of ocean properties. Once the package is recovered, during a Lagrangian experiment. The instruments made a number of the bottles can be analyzed for a wide range of biogeochemical measurements between the surface and 100m to better understand properties. what controls gas exchange in the Southern Ocean.

Ice covered decks of the R/V Knorr during the ICEALOT Cruise to the Arctic.

7 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Coastal Oceanography

oastal target nations (Indonesia, Oceanography Sri Lanka, Thailand, India within JISAO and the Maldives), as well andC PMEL is dominated as from the Philippines by tsunami research. and Canada. There The 2004 Indian Ocean were 120 applications tsunami illustrated the from Indonesia alone. devastating impacts that Thirty-eight participants a major tsunami can have were selected, with 30 and the need for early receiving USAID funding. warning to prevent loss Participants concluded of life. The NOAA Center that they were highly for Tsunami Research University Of Washington Tsunami Science and Preparedness overseas satisfied with their (NCTR) at PMEL students experience and would continues to lead the effort recommend the course to to develop an improved others. Tsunami Warning System. The focus is on developing forecast models for population centers along the US The coastal oceanography program also carries out coastlines and creating a more effective and efficient important research in the California Current System forecast system. Additional work continues on the (CCS), primarily focusing on datasets from two development and deployment of DART buoys to moored sensor arrays deployed in the CCS from measure the initial stages of a tsunami and supply data 1997/8-2003. Studies of hypoxia on the Washington for the modeling efforts. coast are being carried out using both historical data and moored sensors deployed in the summers An important step forward was taken this year with of 2005, 2006 and 2007. Results indicate a seasonal the development and implementation of a certificate trend, consistent with estimates of respiration, as well program in Tsunami Science and Preparedness. The as fluctuations that appear to be related to along shelf certificate program was held on the University of advection of a patch of low oxygen. Conclusions differ Washington campus, July 22-August 2, 2007, and from those of the Oregon study. Off Washington, was held a second time at the Asian Institute of historical data indicate that hypoxia is not unique to Technology (AIT) in Bangkok, March 11-26, 2008. recent years; off Oregon, historical data do not show Almost all of the 32 students in the UW course were severe hypoxia on the inner shelf in the historical from five countries severely affected by the 2004 record. However, most of the historical Oregon data tsunami: Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, India and the are from the Newport line, which is not in the area Maldives. Students took courses on Tsunami Hazard of greatest hypoxia, while the Washington historical Assessment, Tsunami Warning Systems, and Tsunami data are most frequently from the region of maximum Mitigation, Preparedness, Response and Recovery, as hypoxia in that state. The investigators do not think well as embarking on several field trips. For the second that the Washington data are sufficient to suggest global program, AIT received 240 applications from the five warming as a factor due to the short record and data from similar events in the 1960s.

8 Executive Summary

Outreach & Diversity Program

“Dear NOAA, Thank you for the scholarship to your camp! I had a blast! I can’t wait to work there myself one day. Everyone was awesome! I made friends the very first day! I was also wondering if you had any other camps I could go to because I loved that one. Thanks a bunch, Azia, A member of the Tsunamis” ISAO’s Outreach & Diversity Program enjoyed another year of significant growth, expanding Following is a list of activities and accomplishments of from an initial budget of $1000 in 2007 to $40,000 the past year: inJ fiscal year 2008. With the increased budget the program was able to provide support for many • Howard University and NOAA Center for important projects including: additional scholarships Atmospheric Sciences (NCAS) exchange program for NOAA Science Camp participants such as the • JISAO hosted three visitors from Howard one noted in the student’s message above; several new University and successful initiativ • A signed letter of understanding was finalized to es such as the JISAO/NCAS establish the partnership partnership, the JISAO Lecture Series, and a variety of • The NCAS/JISAO Undergraduate Internship public education and K-12 events; and, the institute’s Program was successfully launched, with JISAO participation in many NOAA and UW community hosting one intern in summer 2008 events. • The JISAO Director will visit Howard/NCAS in the fall for meetings and a seminar exchange Because of these efforts, JISAO’s presence in the • Additional funding was granted from local and national environmental science networks NOAA/OAR in support of the NCAS/JISAO has increased. NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Undergraduate Internship Program for summer Atmospheric Research (OAR) has awarded additional 2009 funding for the JISAO/NCAS summer internship program next year. This additional funding will give • JISAO Lecture Series 2008, “Climate Change: A the internship opportunity to three students next year, Wake Up Call” rather than just one. • JISAO successfully partnered with Seattle’s Pacific Science Center (PSC) to launch a new joint lecture series that reached over 500 people • King County’s Executive Ron Sims gave the keynote address • Drs. Konrad Steffen and Jonathan Overpeck gave lectures at PSC and the UW • Spin-off events included: ■ Tom Ackerman’s participation in “Science on Tap” (a local Science Café), ■ Jonathan Overpeck’s talk before an audience of nearly 400 at Seattle Rotary ■ Konrad Steffen’s participation in the Polar Science Center Weekend opening event at PSC

• UWTV recorded the lectures which are available Angel Adames Corraliza, University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez, first on the JISAO website in streaming video and for JISAO/NCAS Summer Intern, has his first ever encounter with snow at podcasting Mount Rainier, WA. 9 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

• Public Education Events Husky Career Lunch outreaching to • The JISAO tsunami group participated in the undergraduate students widely attended NOAA outreach event, Marine Exploration Weekend, at PSC • OR&R Minorities in Science Lecture Series • JISAO co-sponsored a science café with the • JISAO’s Outreach Specialist, Cara MariAnna, UW’s Burke Museum in conjunction with their gave an invited talk on JISAO’s Outreach & exhibit, “The Last Polar Bear” Diversity Program

• JISAO Undergraduate Internship Program • JISAO co-sponsored one undergraduate summer position in Richard Keil’s research laboratory in Oceanography; the student participated in a 3-week research cruise

• New Outreach Material and Website • Content material was created for the Outreach & Diversity section of the new website • A JISAO bookmark, sticker, refrigerator magnet, pens, and “sunburn bead” packets were produced for outreach events

• Sailors for the Sea, 2-year Voyage around the JISAO scientist, Mick Spillane, shows a young visitor how to generate a tsunami at NOAA’s Marine Exploration Weekend at Pacific Science Northwest Passage, in Partnership with PSC and Center in Seattle. the UW Applied Physics Laboratory • Plans are moving ahead for JISAO to participate • K-12 Events in the scientific aspects of the voyage, mounting • JISAO scientists presented two summer science a spectrophotometer to the vessel and training workshops to nearly 60 middle and high school crew in the collection of data students with the UW GEAR UP Project (Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for • Focus the Nation, UW Campus-wide Event on Undergraduate Programs) Climate Change • The Outreach Program worked with DO-IT • Tom Ackerman gave the keynote address (Disabilities, Opportunities, Internetworking, • JISAO was a co-sponsor and staffed an and Technology) staff and organized workshops information table with other UW event sponsors at the UW and NOAA for their summer programs • JISAO scientists participated in the sixth annual NOAA Science Camp, leading the PMEL activities • For the third year JISAO contributed money to Science Camp scholarships funding students from underrepresented groups • JISAO contributed funds for the filming of Science Camp

• Mentoring and Career Fairs • In partnership with the UW Alumni Association (UWAA), JISAO provided a mentor for their Career Mentor Program Professor Dave Covert, JISAO and UW Department of Atmospheric • JISAO staffed a science table at the UWAA Sciences, demonstrates can-crushing experiment for UW GEAR-UP students.

10 Executive Summary

Financial Management and Administration

ISAO’s financial information for the past year is Task II serves as a vehicle for funding research summarized below. Since 2003, there has been scientists (UW professional staff), postdoctoral close to a 20% increase in scientific staff, mostly research associates and graduate students through atJ the NOAA/PMEL host lab, in Seattle. This growth the JISAO Cooperative Agreement grant. The Task has been supported effectively without an increase II program supports directed, collaborative research in administrative staff, mainly by reviewing and efforts between NOAA and university scientists. streamlining job functions and organizational structure on an annual basis. JISAO’s Cooperative Agreement Task II funding supported a total of 71 professional research is funded through three tasks: staff housed at NOAA/PMEL (see Appendix 3.) It also supported postdoctoral research associates housed at Task I, the institute’s “core program,” also supported by PMEL and AFSC. the UW, includes: • Two to three postdoctoral fellows on annual Task III supports University of Washington research appointments, renewable for a second year in areas compatible with the institute’s major research • Senior visiting scientists on leave from their home themes. Along with Task II, Task III programs serve institutions as vehicles for funding research scientists (UW • Honoraria and travel expenses for short-term faculty and professional staff) postdoctoral research visitors associates and graduate students through the JISAO • Education and outreach activities Cooperative Agreement grant. Task III also supported • Small percentage of administrative support postdoctoral research associates housed at PMEL and AFSC. University of Washington grants and principal JISAO provides space, computer access, administrative investigators on NOAA grants, funded through Task III support, and other services for post-docs and visitors are listed in Appendix 4. supported on Task I. Over the past year, Task I funding supported four post-docs (Meredith Hastings, Matthieu The JISAO/NOAA Cooperative Agreement funding Carre, Thomas Gorgues and Panagiotis Athanasiadis) and for the six years ending on June 30, 2008 totals the short-term visitors and activities in Appendix 2. $88,852,874. JISAO’s funding exclusive of the Cooperative Agreement for the last financial year of A vigorous search identified two new post-docs who 2007-08 amounts to another $4,690,388. The charts will be arriving around the beginning of 2009. below break down Cooperative Agreement funding by themes and tasks for 2007-08.

11 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

2007-08 Tasks

2007-08 Themes

JISAO’s management team worked on the following • Branding/marketing effort initiatives over the past year to improve and strengthen • Created a unified look for JISAO that effectively JISAO as an organization: communicates research and education goals and activities to partnering organizations as well as • JISAO Staff Recognition Program local, regional and national communities • Created a program in which UW/JISAO • Includes outreach and public relations materials employees can be rewarded at the same levels as in the form of brochures, informational signs, the NOAA employees with whom they work. posters and stationery • JISAO Outreach and Diversity Program • New website is being designed with the unified • Continued to strengthen and broaden the look and more in-depth information about success of the Outreach and Diversity Program JISAO’s research and education programs. (see section above for details of the year’s Launch of new site is expected this fall activities) • Improving Infrastructure • Strengthening Communications • Convened the new JISAO Council which • Continued joint quarterly meetings with JISAO meets quarterly to review and address major and NOAA employees management • For the first time ever, hosted a JISAO all- • Created better systems to track media coverage staff meeting on UW campus that included and publications of JISAO researchers employees on campus and those who work at • Reviewed and streamlined staff assignments to NOAA facilities better serve research and education needs • JISAO administrator initiated weekly office hours at NOAA/PMEL , improving communications and collaboration between NOAA and UW personnel

12 Climate

Climate

13 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Center for Science in the Earth System

PI Description UW - Edward Sarachik, Edward Miles JISAO’s Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES) performs integrated research on the impacts Other Personnel of climate on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) UW - Jessica Beetz, Derek Booth, Lan Cuo, Valérie by combining and integrating expertise in climate Dulière, Tim Essington, Richard Fenske, David dynamics, ecological dynamics, hydrologic dynamics, Fluharty, Rich Gwozdz, Alan Hamlet, Richard Hoskins, and institutional and policy analysis. The CSES also Daniel Huppert, Elizabeth J. Jackson, Adrienne researches the application of climate information in Karpov, Catherine Karr, Patrick Keys, Ann Marie regional decision-making processes in support of the Kimball, Dennis Lettenmaier, Zenobia Levy, Jeremy regional aspects of an eventual Climate Service. CSES is Littell, Nathan Mantua, Marketa McGuire Elsner, Don comprised of two groups: the Climate Dynamics Group McKenzie, Todd Mitchell, Amber Moore, Stephanie (CDG) and the Climate Impacts Group (CIG). Moore, Philip Mote, Robert Norheim, Richard Palmer, Alexander Peterson, Crystal Raymond, Don Reading, The 2007-08 reporting period was a very busy Jonathan Reum, Erin Rogers, Roger Rosenblatt, Eric and exciting year for the CSES. Major research Salathé, Richard Slaughter, Amy Snover, Rick Steed, accomplishments, examples of stakeholder Anne Steinemann, Ingrid Tohver, Michael J. Wallace, collaboration, and tool development include the Michael Warner, Lara Whitely Binder, Sasha Wittmann, following: Andrew Wood, Yongxin Zhang NOAA – Edmund D. Harrison • Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assess- WSU - Chad Kruger, Claudio Stockle ment (ongoing) - Research related to the Washing- PNNL - Ruby Leung, Michael Scott ton State Climate Impacts Assessment continues. The $1.5 million assessment - the most detailed Task III assessment of climate change impacts to Wash- ington State to date - was funded in spring 2007 NOAA Primary Contact by the Washington State Legislature under House Chet Ropelewski, CDEP Bill 1303. The assessment examines the impacts Caitlin Simpson, RISA/CPO of climate change on the following major sectors: agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, hydrology and NOAA Goals water resources, infrastructure, and salmon. New 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal climate change scenarios for the state were devel- & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based oped. Adaptation in each of these sectors will also Management be examined. The additional funding has enabled 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to CSES to temporarily expand the team’s research Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond capabilities with respect to personnel while also 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water extending its reach into new sectors. (See related Information entry in “Enhance regional capacity ….”)

14 Climate

• Climate Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in the effort that examined the impacts of climate change PNW (ongoing/decision support tools developed) on major water supplies in the central Puget Sound - Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) present a signifi- region. A number of keystone products were cant health threat for Puget Sound residents and an developed for the effort, including eight technical economic threat to the region’s shellfish industry. memoranda outlining the methodologies used Exceptionally toxic events have previously been at- to develop the meteorological and hydrologic tributed to large-scale patterns of climate variabili- climate change scenarios for the Climate Change ty, such as El Niño events. CSES research has found Technical Committee, a white paper describing that a combination of high frequency “weather” 13 fully-referenced climate change “building events precede toxic events. A sensitivity analysis blocks” about the impacts of climate change on of environmental precursors was conducted to temperature, precipitation, snowpack and glaciers, contribute towards an assessment of the capacity stream flows, sea level rise, and salmon habitat for prediction of paralytic shellfish poisoning risk and populations, and an online climate variables in Puget Sound. Additionally, a set of empirical database for evaluating climate change impacts on models have been developed based on relationships water resources in King, Snohomish, and Pierce between regional climate factors and past HAB Counties. (See related entry in “Enhance regional events in the PNW region, allowing for an integrat- capacity ….”) ed risk assessment for HAB events in Puget Sound. (See related entry in “Enhance understanding…”) • Preparing for Climate Change Adaptation Guidebook (completed) - CSES and King County, • Development of High-resolution Regional Climate Washington, in partnership with ICLEI – Local Scenarios for Impacts Studies (ongoing) - Climate Governments for Sustainability, released Preparing impacts studies require scenarios of climate change for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, at very high spatial resolution and at temporal reso- Regional, and State Governments in September lution of daily or hourly time steps. In this project, 2007. The guidebook is designed to facilitate the team are using statistical downscaling and a planning for climate impacts at the local level by regional climate model to produce regional climate specifying practical steps and strategies that can be scenarios to support climate impacts studies. (See used to build community resilience into the future. related entry in “Support climate impact studies The guidebook is available for download at www. ….”) cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml. (See related entry in “Enhance regional capacity ….”) • UW Surface Water Monitor (ongoing/decision support tool enhanced) - Under the NOAA TRACS • New Levels of Stakeholder Interaction - A major program funding, the University of Washing- shift in the public’s interest in dealing with both ton’s Surface Water Monitor was advanced by the climate change mitigation and adaptation has inclusion of (1) real-time cumulative stream flow been observed both regionally and nationally over runoff products; (2) real-time drought indices (SPI, the last few years, resulting in an unprecedented Standardized Runoff Index); and (3) weekly updat- number of information and presentation ing drought relevant forecasts of soil moisture and requests to the CSES from federal, state, and local runoff (which serve as input to the CPC Drought governments and the general public. Between April Briefing and CPC Drought Outlook). The SW 1, 2007 and March 31, 2008, CSES researchers Monitor is available at http://www.hydro.washing- and staff gave over 200 presentations on a variety ton.edu/forecast/monitor/index.shtml. (See related of topics related to CSES research and PNW entry in “Other Work of Wider Interest”) climate change impacts. CSES researchers and staff also continue to provide one-on-one technical • Central Puget Sound Water Supply Planning assistance to stakeholders on an as-needed basis. (completed) - CSES provided technical support to a central Puget Sound (WA) water supply planning More information on these activities and others is provided in the following sections.

15 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Objectives • Early Winter Pacific Northwest Precipitation 1. Enhance global understanding of climate Forecast Skill (Mitchell, Mantua, Lettenmaier; dynamics. ongoing) 2. Enhance understanding of the role of climate in the As part of a larger project to characterize the skill of functioning and management of coastal and ocean hydrological forecasts for regions around the globe, resources. the skill of two-week tropospheric geopotential 3. Enhance regional capacity to plan for and respond height (500 hPa) forecasts is being evaluated for to climate impacts by evaluating climate impacts the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during on Pacific Northwest resources and institutional October-November-December (OND), the arrangements, and supporting use of climate calendar months of floods in western Washington. information in decision-making processes. CSES has replicated and updated published skill 4. Support climate impact studies for the Pacific calculations with geopotential height as both Northwest. the predict (lead) and predictor (lag) fields for 5. Support NOAA and other climate research December-January-February, and repeated the committees. calculation for October-November-December (OND). The skill of both the mechanistic NOAA Accomplishments Reforecast model and an empirical model 1. Enhance global understanding of climate constructed by canonical correlation analysis were dynamics. evaluated. The OND skill has been calculated for cold, neutral, and warm ENSO episodes, with the • Documenting and Interpreting the Southeast results suggesting that the forecasts are most skillful U.S. Drought (Mitchell, Mantua, Lettenmaier; during warm ENSO episodes (years of diminished ongoing) PNW precipitation due to ENSO). Documenting Recent drought conditions in the southeast the limits and opportunities of forecasts at the U.S. were characterized, and the time history of two-week timescale is extremely useful to flood precipitation for this region related to anomalous planners and the public. marine surface temperatures over the globe. These analyses helped to focus numerical forecast 2. Enhance understanding of the role of climate in experiments for the NOAA Climate Attribution the functioning and management of coastal and activity. ocean resources.

• ENSO Forecasting (Mitchell, Mantua; ongoing) • Evaluating the Effects of Climate on Juvenile A linear statistical model was constructed that Salmon Survival in the Freshwater Environment relates off-equatorial Pacific surface temperature (Hamlet, Mantua; ongoing) anomalies in both hemispheres to equatorial ENSO In collaboration with NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries conditions one year later. The results suggest that Science Center and the UW Dept. of Civil and some portion of the Pacific Northwest springtime Environmental Engineering, CSES is exploring snow water equivalent and soil moisture may be the potential for differential responses in the predictable at 1-year leads. viability of four salmon populations in the Salmon River (ID) and Wenatchee River (WA) basins. For the Salmon basin, the team found that mean abundance decreased 20–50% and the probability of quasi-extinction increased dramatically (from 0.1–0.4 to 0.3–0.9) for all populations in the two modeled climate change scenarios. Their results for the Salmon River basin demonstrate that detailed population models can usefully incorporate climate change predictions, and that global warming poses a direct threat to freshwater stages in these fish, increasing their risk of extinction. This work is currently being extended to the Wenatchee basin

16 Climate

in eastern WA using fine scale hydrologic models • Modeling Studies to Support Conservation incorporating stream temperature. (Crozier et al. Planning for Pacific Salmon (Mantua; ongoing) 2008b) In collaboration with multiple partners, including the University of British Columbia Fisheries • Modeling Climate Change and Land Use Impacts Centre, Simon Fraser University, and The Wild on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Salmon Center, CSES has developed a working Basin (Palmer, Wiley; completed) model of the North Pacific salmon ecosystem (the An innovative collaboration between NOAA Salmon MALBEC model) that serves as a policy and CSES evaluated the effects of future climate gaming tool with potential to explore the impacts change and large-scale land use changes on of climate change, hatchery and harvest policies, Chinook salmon in the Snohomish River (WA) and changes in freshwater habitat productive basin. The study used changes in temperature capacity at the scale of the North Pacific Ocean. and precipitation derived from climate models to The results to date indicate that simulations that project shifts in stream flow and water temperature include density-dependent interactions in the in the years 2025 and 2050. The model also ocean yield better fits to the observed run-size data accounted for the recovery plan’s planned changes than those simulations without density-dependent in land cover and land use. The outputs from the interactions in the ocean. This suggests that for hydrology and water quality model then served any level of ocean productivity, the ocean will as inputs into a salmon life cycle model that only support a certain biomass of fish but that this calculated how Chinook salmon might respond biomass could consist of different combinations to the altered conditions. The analysis found that of stocks, stock numbers and individual fish size. climate change is likely to decrease the ability to (Mantua et al. 2007) reach salmon population targets established in the recovery plan, although habitat restoration • Climate Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in the slows the decline and may allow some populations PNW (Mantua, Moore; ongoing) to increase in some sub-basins. The analysis also In collaboration with NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries demonstrated how salmon recovery planning Science Center’s West Coast Center for Oceans might need to adjust spatially to compensate for and Human Health, this CSES is (1) evaluating climate change impacts. (Battin et al. 2007) the role that climate and oceanographic variability plays in the frequency and distribution of Harmful • Quantitative Tools for Evaluating the Effects of Algae Blooms in Puget Sound; (2) quantifying the Climate Change on the Population Dynamics of degree to which environmental monitoring and/ Pacific Salmon (Mantua, Beetz; ongoing) or prediction can be used to skillfully predict the Climate variations during the 20th century risks for shellfish-contaminating HAB events in are now a widely recognized driver of Pacific Puget Sound; and (3) quantifying the temporal salmon production. At this time, however, there and spatial patterns of variability in Puget Sound is a distinct lack of stock specific information on oceanographic properties. The team’s quantitative climate impacts over the entire life cycle of Pacific analysis found that a combination of high salmon as most studies concentrate on either the frequency “weather” events precede toxic events. marine or the freshwater environments. CSES, in A sensitivity analysis of environmental precursors collaboration with NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries was conducted to contribute towards an assessment Science Center’s Fisheries and Their Environment of the capacity for prediction of paralytic shellfish Program, is adopting a life-cycle modeling poisoning risk in Puget Sound. Additionally, a set framework that will allow projections of future of empirical models have been developed based on population trajectories and estimates of viability relationships between regional climate factors and measures such as annual growth, mean abundance, past HAB events in the PNW region, allowing for and probability of extinction. The scientists will an integrated risk assessment for HAB events in then incorporate various regional climate change Puget Sound. (Moore et al., in press (a) and (b)) scenarios to develop scenarios for future ocean conditions and for stream temperature and flows. Finally, they will estimate how salmon population viability will respond to climate change scenarios. 17 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

• Improving Rebuilding Plans for Overfished West are to (1) compile and digitize all possible data Coast Fish Stocks through Inclusion of Climate on the Puget Sound fish community; (2) evaluate Information (Mantua; ongoing) the data quality for putative “sentinel species” The Magnuson-Stevens Fisheries Conservation and that might serve as ecosystem indicators; and Management Act mandates that overfished fish (3) quantitatively analyze the long-term trends stocks be rebuilt in as short a time as possible. A in putative indicator species. This research is key component of a rebuilding plan is a technical being done in collaboration with the University rebuilding analysis, however the results of of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery rebuilding analyses may be impacted by climatic Sciences, Washington Department of Fish and regime shifts. In collaboration with NOAA’s Wildlife. Northwest National Fisheries Science Center and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, the project is a) • Anthropogenic Stresses on Marine Ecosystems assessing whether climate indices can be linked (Miles; ongoing) to measures of productivity for fish stocks off the In collaboration with NOAA’s Pacific Marine U.S. west coast, and b) modifying existing tools for Environmental Laboratory and other institutions, conducting rebuilding analyses to include climate this project is looking to develop a place-based impacts (and their associated uncertainties). research program in the Northeast Pacific focusing on impact of two major stressors in • Coastal Upwelling: Past, Present, and Future the NE Pacific: (1) ocean acidification, and (2) (Mitchell, Mantua; ongoing) changing ocean thermal structure. A workshop In support of a NOAA-led effort to understand funded by University of Washington’s College the failure of the 2005 upwelling season along of Ocean Fishery Sciences (COFS) was held on the Oregon and Washington coast, an historical April 23-24, 2007 at the University of Washington upwelling index was developed from sea-level (www.uwpcc.washington.edu/documents/PCC/ pressure records, and the index used to document anthropogenicstressesreport.pdf). This workshop led the regional scale of the phenomenon. The group is to the creation of a Steering Committee seeking analyzing observations and IPCC model outputs to to build a multi-institutional research program document changes in the large-scale atmospheric focusing on the effects of changing ocean thermal circulation during the upwelling seasons. structure and ocean acidification. Twentieth century observations and the GFDL CM2.1 simulation show a weakening of the tropical 3. Enhance regional capacity to plan for and respond portion of the subtropical highs in the Pacific, to climate impacts by evaluating climate impacts and decreased pressure over land in the global on Pacific Northwest resources and institutional upwelling regions, the latter that might enhance arrangements, and supporting use of climate upwelling. The GFDL model simulates diminished information in decision-making processes. land pressures and a generally more zonal pattern of pressure changes in the 21st century under • Washington State Climate Change Impacts increased greenhouse forcing. Calculations with Assessment (co-PIs: Miles, Lettenmaier; other IPCC models are in progress. ongoing) The CIG, in partnership with Pacific Northwest • Datasets for Climate Impacts Assessment on National Laboratory and Washington State Puget Sound Fish and Invertebrate Communities University, is involved in a major research effort (Essington, ongoing) to develop an updated climate change impacts To support development of Puget Sound recovery assessment for Washington State. The $1.5 plans, the CSES is collecting, organizing, and million effort focuses on seven key areas: water analyzing all of the environmental data collected resources, public health, irrigated agriculture, in Puget Sound over the past century, evaluating coasts, infrastructure, forests, and salmon. Updated the cumulative impacts of human activities on climate change scenarios at a range of scales from this ecosystem, and identifying indicator species statewide to 15-km grid size were developed for that can be used to monitor the effectiveness of the assessment. Information on adapting to climate restoration efforts. The objectives of this project change impacts will also be provided. Funding for the assessment was provided by the Washington 18 Climate

State legislature under House Bill 1303 (HB 1303). CIG provided updated climate scenarios and Major deliverables include: sector-specific impact baselines for the final PAWG report to the Governor. • A report describing how climate change is projected to affect the people and resources • Anticipating Sea Level Rise Response in Puget of Washington state over the next 50 years, Sound (Petersen, Miles; completed) focusing on impacts on water resources, public Sea level rise predictions are complicated by health, irrigated agriculture, forests, coast lines, the complex non-linear nature of the climate and salmon. Where possible, the report will system and long-term dependence on human indicate how impacts vary by region across the choices. This study, completed by CSES-supported state and indicate locations of high and low graduate student Alexander Petersen, analyzed the sensitivity to climate change. The report will regulatory and institutional structure surrounding also characterize barriers to adaptation to these coastal zone management in Puget Sound, impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) and prioritize Washington, in order to identify barriers to and areas for future action; and opportunities for sea level rise response. (Petersen, • A web portal providing free access to data, maps, A. (Sascha) 2007) and information indicating projected changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, • Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of snowpack, stream flow, agricultural and public Washington State (Mote, Petersen, Whitely health impacts, salmon risk, forest risk, coastal Binder; completed) vulnerability. Local sea level rise (SLR) is produced by the combined effects of global sea level rise and A final report on the HB 1303 assessment is due on local factors such as vertical land deformation December 15, 2008. (Climate Impacts Group 2007) (e.g., tectonic movement, isostatic rebound) and seasonal ocean elevation changes due to • Advice to Washington State Planning/Adaptation atmospheric circulation effects. In collaboration Working Groups (Miles, Hamlet, Littell, Whitely with the Washington Department of Ecology, CSES Binder; completed) reviewed available projections of these factors CSES provided technical advice to Washington for the coastal waters of Washington and provide State’s five multi-stakeholder Preparation/ low, medium, and high estimates of local SLR for Adaptation Working Groups (PAWGs), which 2050 and 2100 for the Puget Sound Basin, the were established as part of the Washington central and southern Washington Coast, and the Climate Change Challenge to determine what Northwest Olympic Peninsula. (Mote et al. 2008b) steps Washington needs to take to prepare for the impacts of climate change. CIG representatives • Direct Impacts of Climate on Forest Growth, serve on each of the five PAWGs (fresh water, Distribution, and Function (McKenzie, Littell; agriculture, public health, coasts and infrastructure, ongoing) and forests) and provided information on future In collaboration with the U.S. Forest Service climate projections, scientific information and the University of Washington’s College of on each sector, and critical reviews of PAWG Forest Resources, CSES is using basic research recommendations. In addition, the CIG in climate-vegetation relationships to provide contributed climate and adaptation information estimates of future changes to forests of the to the PAWG process. CIG summarized extensive PNW in direct response to changing climate. internal and external research on 20th and 21st The scientists are developing statistical models century climate and impacts in a document titled of tree species distributions to project changes in “Climate Facts” (Climate Impacts Group 2007). forest composition due to warming temperatures, CIG also provided key adaptation principles from particularly on the east side of the Cascades. the CIG/King County guidebook Preparing for They are identifying climatic variables associated Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, with the increases and whether decadal climate and State Governments (Snover et al. 2007). Finally, variability and/or climate change is implicated.

19 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Finally, they are using tree-rings and the VIC ecosystem productivity (NEP) that may be ex- hydrological model to update, improve and extend pected with projected changes in temperature and hydroclimate reconstructions in the Columbia precipitation in the PNW. The scale of the land- Basin and the Cascades for water managers. scapes to be evaluated will be management units Results to date suggest that land managers, both (104 – 106 hectares). Therefore, this research will private and public, will need to develop adaptation aid land managers in determining how net biome strategies to manage changing ecosystems. production within the boundaries of management (McKenzie et al., in press(a); Littell et al., in press; units may be impacted by future changes in distur- Cushman et al. 2007) bance regimes and productivity.

• Climate, Air Quality, and Wildfire (Salathé, • Snake River Economic Model (Slaughter, Read- McKenzie; ongoing) ing; ongoing) In collaboration with Washington State University, This project consists of modeling the flow of hy- the National Center for Atmospheric Research, drologic and climate change on the Eastern Snake USDA Forest Service, USDA Natural Resources Plain (Idaho) and its aquifer through to impacts on Conservation Service, and Colorado State agriculture and secondary impacts on the econo- University, CSES is using an ensemble modeling mies of the counties that lie above the aquifer. This approach to address the impacts and uncertainties portion of the Snake contributes approximately related to the effects of global change on regional 40% of the flow of the Columbia River system. air quality in the U.S. (Slaughter and Wiener 2007)

• Landscape Scale Change in Forest Composition • Climate Change and the Economics of Ski Re- and Structure due to Climate Change, sorts (Reading; completed) Hydrology, Wildfire, and their Interactions For ski areas at moderate elevation, CSES has found (Gwozdz, McKenzie; ongoing) that even modest increases in PNW temperature CSES is linking state of the art models of hydrol- and precipitation because of climate change could ogy (DHSVM) and forest growth (ZELIG) with significantly decrease revenues by shortening the a new model of wildfire disturbance. This linked length of the ski season. Depending on the location suite of models will be driven by data derived of the ski area, artificial snowmaking may not be from a regional climate model and implemented economically viable. If the resort has affordable wa- over a meso-scale watershed in the eastern Cas- ter available then snowmaking can economically be cade Mountains (WA). The coupled models will used to extend the season. For those ski areas that represent the major feedbacks between climate, do not have sufficient water availability, the future hydrology, and fire within the forest system. Thus, will mean coping with shorter ski seasons. (Mote et these models will provide a method to more fully al., in press) understand and project the response of forests to climate change. Such projections will aid in the • Institutions, Adaptation, the Prior Appropria- development of adaptation plans for fire, forest, tion Doctrine, and the Development of Wa- wildlife, and freshwater resource management. ter Markets: Snake and Klamath Institutions (Slaughter; completed) • Simulating the Effects of Climate-Driven This study examined whether the prior appropria- Changes in Disturbance Regimes and tion doctrine is a hindrance to change or alterna- Productivity on Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance tively provides the legal underpinnings for emerg- of Forested Landscapes (Raymond, McKenzie; ing markets. These questions are examined in the ongoing) context of a comparison of institutions developed The goal of this research is to develop a landscape on the Snake River in Idaho and those of the Kla- model that can incorporate the multiple pathways math River in Oregon and California. (Slaughter through which climate change can affect net biome and Wiener 2007) production of PNW forested landscapes. The mod- el will allow for testing of alternative disturbance regime scenarios (combinations of harvest and fire severity, frequency, and extent) and changes to net 20 Climate

• Basin Classification and Hydrologic Sensitiv- • Hydrologic Effects of 20th Century Warming and ity to Warming for Fine Scale Watersheds in the Climate Variability in the Western U.S. (Hamlet, PNW (Hamlet, Norheim; completed) Lettenmaier, Mote, Salathé; ongoing) In collaboration with the University of Oregon Although in the past climate has frequently been Institute for a Sustainable Environment, CSES assumed stationary in time, it is now widely used 1/8th degree (approximately 12 km) grid- recognized as an important variable affecting ded data sets of precipitation and temperature and hydrologic processes at a number of different time corresponding 1/8th degree VIC simulations of scales. In collaboration with Scripps Institute of snowpack and runoff to classify the hydrologic type Oceanography (California Applications Program), (rain, mixed rain/snow, snowmelt) of each water- this project has produced a series of publications shed in Washington State at the Hydrologic Unit exploring the effects of 20th century warming Code 4 (HUC4) scale, and to quantify the sensitiv- and climate variability on a number of important ity of each watershed’s snowpack and long-term hydrologic and water resources variables using average hydrograph to several levels of warming both observed and simulated data. (Hamlet and both in the historic period and for a simple climate Lettenmaier 2007, Mote et al. 2008a) change scenario representing a 2˚C warming over the PNW (i.e. ~mid 21st century). The study prod- • Droughts and Water Shortages: Economic ucts provide a set of regional scale maps showing Impacts and Reducing Vulnerability sensitive mixed rain/snow areas, and Excel databas- (Steinemann; ongoing) es for quickly assessing and displaying the stream In collaboration with the Washington State flow sensitivity to warming of each watershed in Department of Community, Trade, and Economic the study area. (Available at: ftp://ftp.hydro.washing- Development and the National Integrated ton.edu/pub/hamleaf/huc4_climate_change/) Drought Information System, CSES is conducting a comprehensive study of drought and water • A Comprehensive Hydrologic Data Base shortages in Washington State to (1) analyze Incorporating IPCC Climate Change Scenarios impacts from recent droughts, (2) identify the most to Support Long-Range Water Planning in the vulnerable areas and sectors, (3) develop indicators Columbia River Basin (Hamlet, McGuire Elsner, to monitor and forecast drought conditions, and Lettenmaier, Deems, Rogers, Whitely Binder; (4) determine ways to reduce drought vulnerability ongoing) and impacts in the future. A focus is the economic In collaboration with the Washington State Dept. assessment of drought in the state. A result of this of Ecology and multiple federal agencies, CSES study will be an economic assessment of drought, is developing improved technical methods and and the benefits and costs of taking early action to models and producing a comprehensive hydrologic reduce the widespread and long-lasting effects of database for the entire Columbia River basin at an droughts. unprecedented level of spatial detail - 1/16th degree (~ 12.5 sq. mi. grids). This implementation scale • Central Puget Sound Regional Water Supply will double the spatial resolution of the VIC models Planning (Palmer; completed) used in past studies, allowing for a more accurate In collaboration with University of Washington’s representation of topographic features in the Department of Civil and Environmental basin and better assessment of smaller watershed Engineering, CSES provided technical support to sensitivity to changes in climate. In addition, pilot a voluntary regional water supply planning effort studies for four different basins (likely the Methow, involving more than 20 cities, counties, tribes, state Little Spokane, Walla Walla, and Yakima) using fine agencies, utility districts, and other organizations scale hydrologic models are proposed to help assess in the central Puget Sound (WA) region. The the potential advantages of implementing these Climate Change Committee was tasked with more costly approaches in small-scale watersheds. assessing the impacts of climate change on water This effort was funded in Spring 2007 by the demand, water supplies and in stream flows. A Washington State Legislature under House Bill number of keystone products were developed for 2860. the effort, including: eight technical memoranda

21 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

outlining the methodologies used to develop the • Adaptation Case Study Database (Whitely meteorological and hydrologic climate change Binder; ongoing) scenarios for the Climate Change Technical Communities interested in preparing for climate Committee; a white paper describing (published change frequently express the need for examples of 2006) 13 fully-referenced climate change “building how adaptation strategies are being implemented in blocks” about the impacts of climate change on other communities. To support this need, the CIG temperature, precipitation, snowpack and glaciers, is developing an adaptation case study database stream flows, sea level rise, and salmon habitat that will allow interested individuals to search for and populations; and an online climate variables examples from communities of similar size, climate database for evaluating climate change impacts impacts concerns, and geographic region. on water resources in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties. The online database is available • Key CSES Stakeholder Meetings (CSES team; at http://www.climate.tag.washington.edu/index. ongoing) html. Final Committee reports and other project In addition to the dozens of more individualized documentation are available at http://www.govlink. meetings CSES researchers have with stakeholders, org/regional-water-planning/tech-committees/ CSES sponsored or was otherwise involved with climate-change/index.htm. (Alemu and Palmer the following key stakeholder meetings: 2007; Alexander and Palmer 2007; Alexander et al. 2007; O’Neill and Palmer 2007; Palmer 2007a,b; • Fall Forecast Meetings. Polebitski et al. 2007a,b,c) Every fall, CSES hosts workshops highlighting the seasonal climate forecast and water resource • Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for outlook for the PNW for the upcoming water Local, Regional, and State Governments (Snover, year. The information presented at these Whitely Binder; completed) meetings provides public and private resource CSES and King County, Washington, in managers the opportunity to consider how partnership with ICLEI – Local Governments projected seasonal stream flow levels may for Sustainability, released Preparing for Climate affect operational decisions in the PNW. The Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State meetings also provide an opportunity to learn Governments in September 2007. The guidebook about new water resource forecasting techniques is designed to facilitate planning for climate and tools. The meetings are open to the public impacts at the local level by specifying practical and include a diverse range of participants, steps and strategies that can be used to build including federal, state, and local level water community resilience into the future. These steps resource managers; public and private electric include creating a climate change preparedness utility managers; consultants; fish specialists; team; identifying community vulnerabilities to agricultural specialists; non-profit organizations; climate change; and identifying, selecting, and and researchers. The fall 2007 meetings were implementing adaptation options. More than 1,000 held in Olympia, Washington (October 2, 2007) copies of the guidebook have been downloaded and Boise, Idaho (October 17, 2007). electronically and more than 300 hard copies distributed around the world (http://www.cses. • Climate Change 101 Training Sessions. washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml). (Snover et Beginning in fall 2007, CSES researchers al. 2007) gave ten presentations to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region X staff and executive team members as part of an EPA- sponsored “Climate Change 101” lecture series. In February 2008, CSES researchers gave over a dozen presentations at four regional US Fish and Wildlife Service-sponsored “Climate Change 101” staff training sessions held at the Boise (ID), Spokane (WA), Lacey (WA), and Portland (OR) district offices. CSES also worked with

22 Climate

U.S. Forest Service (USFS) staff to plan a similar 4. Support climate impact studies for the Pacific “Climate Change 101” staff training for USFS Northwest staff in May 2008, and was invited to participate in a “Climate Change 101” training workshop • Meteorological Processes and Regional Climate for western U.S. staff of The Nature Conservancy Impacts (Salathé; ongoing) (April 2008). These training sessions, along with In collaboration with the University of Washington other meetings and presentations to planning Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pacific staff around the region, represent an important Northwest National Laboratory, and Washington shift in the region’s planning agencies from State University, CSES has developed a state-of- general interest in climate change impacts to the-art high-resolution regional climate model for active learning and a focus on building internal the PNW aimed at addressing the shortcomings capacity at the staff level. of statistical downscaling and coarse-resolution regional models and accounting for physical • Presentations on PNW Climate Change and interactions in the climate system at all spatial Adapting to Climate Change (CSES team; scales. Important climate parameters that can ongoing) only be captured in a high-resolution model A major shift in the public’s interest in dealing with include the frequency of extreme events such as both climate change mitigation and adaptation has intense precipitation, heat waves, windstorms, and been observed both regionally and nationally over droughts. (Salathé et al. 2007) the last few years, resulting in an unprecedented number of information and presentation • High-resolution Regional Climate Scenarios for requests to the CSES from federal, state, and local Impacts Studies (Salathé, Mitchell; ongoing) governments and the general public. Between April In collaboration with Pacific Northwest National 1, 2007 and March 31, 2008, CSES researchers and Laboratory, CSES is using statistical downscaling staff gave over 200 presentations on a variety of and a regional climate model to produce regional topics related to CSES research and PNW climate climate scenarios to support climate impacts change impacts. studies. Recent improvements in the techniques include statistical downscaling to 1/16-degree • Work with the Media (CSES team; ongoing) (~ 12.5 sq.mi.) spatial resolution over the PNW. CSES continues to be a resource for local and These data are suitable for simulating river flows in national media on stories related to climate change. very small basins that are important to municipal At least 25 unique stories featuring CSES research water supply. Scenarios produced with the regional or CSES researchers were printed between July climate model (dynamical downscaling) are 2007 and June 2008. Multiple on-air (radio and suitable for understanding the impacts of extreme television) media interviews were also provided. events. Mitchell assisted Seattle City Light in learning how to use downscaled IPCC precipitation • CSES Website, Newsletter, and Listserve (Whitely estimates. (Salathé et al. 2007) Binder and CSES team; ongoing) The CSES website, in particular the CIG website • Analysis of Global Climate Model Projections for (www.cses.washington.edu/cig), continues to be a the Pacific Northwest (Mote, Salathé; ongoing) resource for the CIG, the public, and the media. As part of the CSES’s Washington State climate Continued basic maintenance of the CIG website, impacts assessment (see related entry in “Enhance including regular updates to the CIG in the News, regional capacity ….”), CSES analyzed simulations CIG Spotlight (on the home page), monthly from 20 global climate models for the 20th century climate update, CIG seminar, and CIG publications and projections for the 21st century based on three pages. Continued publishing the CIG’s quarterly emissions pathways (SRES A2, A1B, and B1). This electronic newsletter, “The Climate CIGnal”. analysis has enabled the scientists to ascertain the Membership in the CIG’s listserve continues to ability of the global models to capture the observed grow as a result of the CIG’s various outreach climate of the PNW and to compare the projected activities. The listserve now includes 885 people trends in temperature and precipitation simulated (started in January 2005 with approximately 350 by the various models. (Salathé et al. 2007, Mote et list serve members). al. 2008c) 23 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

5. Support NOAA and other Climate Research the meeting, Miles was asked to make a short Committees presentation on how climate change impacts marine ecosystems. • Dennis Lettenmaier - Chair, CPO CPPA core • In connection with a visit to NOAA HQ in program review, March 2008; Section lead author, his capacity as supervisor of one of the young U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) recruits in the International Office of the Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.3, National Ocean Services who is receiving “Water and Land Resources”, lead by USDA her MMA degree this Spring (the result of a (completed March 08); Section lead author, collaborative program between SMA & NOS), UNESCO World Water Development Report 3 Miles was asked to give a seminar in the regular (Section 4.2, “Changes in the Global Water Cycle”) seminar series which is held on Fridays. Miles made a presentation on “Climate Impacts on • Jeremy Littell and Don McKenzie - Authors, U.S. the World Ocean: The Challenge of Multiple CCSP SAP 4.4 (in review), “Preliminary Review Stresses” on July 19, 2007. of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive • On the occasion of the 50th Anniversary of “The Ecosystems and Resources”. Littell was author on Keeling Curve”, jointly sponsored by NOAA and Ch.3, McKenzie was author on Ch. 4. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Miles was invited to organize and chair a panel of carbon • Nathan Mantua and Andrew Wood - Authors, cycle science specialists to address issues of how U.S. CCSP SAP 5.3 (in review), “Decision-Support carbon cycle science could link more effectively Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to to decision-makers and the public. Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data”. • On January 16-18, 2008, Miles and Chet Mantua has also been serving as lead author for Koblinsky each presented at two panels on Ch.2, “A Description and Evaluation of Hydrologic the design and implementation of a National and Climate Forecast and Data Products that Climate Service at the National Council of Support Decision-making for Water Resource Science and the Environment annual meeting. M a n a g e r s”. • Todd Mitchell, Nathan Mantua and Dennis • Edward Miles - Lettenmaier - Doing analysis on recent drought • Chaired and co-organized, with Dick Feely conditions in the southeast U.S. in support of (NOAA/PMEL), and Jim Murray (UW/ the NOAA Climate Attribution effort headed by Oceanography) a national meeting on Martin Hoerling of NOAA ESRL. “Anthropogenic Stresses on Marine Ecosystems” on April 23-24, 2007 (program involves the UW, • Philip Mote - National Integrated Drought NOAA/PMEL, the NMFS Northwest Fisheries Information System (NIDIS) implementation team. Science Center, and the Alaska Fisheries Science Center, the Marine Conservation Biology • Andrew Wood - Author, U.S. CCSP SAP 5.3, Institute, The Heinz Center of Washington, “Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations D.C., and the Joint Institute of Global Change Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Research at the University of Maryland.) Observational Data”, National Research Council • On invitation of Chet Koblinsky, attended a (in review); Review Panel Member, CDEP ESRL; CPO meeting in Chicago on May 22, 2007, - CPC Drought Outlook panel member (Drought which was to elaborate the role of NIDIS in Briefing contributor); National Weather Service a National Climate Service. Chet asked Lara L3MTO reviewer; NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Whitely Binder to present the Miles et al Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Science Steering (2006) design of an NCS. In addition, during Group member, Workshop participant; NOAA TRACS proposal review.

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Other Climate Advice/Service • Andrew Wood - Goddard, L., A.W. Wood, N. Mantua and K. Jacobs, 2007, Decadal Climate • CIG Team - University of Washington’s “Focus Prediction: Learning from the Oceans. Project the Nation” event, a daylong teach-in on climate Report to California Department of Water change. Several CSES/CIG members were asked to Resources.; Reviewer, US Bureau of Reclamation participate in different panels. (January 2008) Climate Technical Working Group final report on climate change and water • Alan Hamlet and Lara Whitely Binder – Columbia Basin Trust “Communities Adapting to Other Work of Wider Interest Climate Change” advisory committee • Climate Services Delivery through the Office • Nathan Mantua - Scientific advisor for the Puget of the Washington State Climatologist (Mote, Sound Georgia Basin 2007 annual meeting Mault; ongoing) planning committee; Member of the U.S. In the past year, the Office of the Washington CLIVAR Panel on Predictability, Predictions State Climatologist (OWSC) has developed or and Applications Interface; Member of the improved several tools that enable users with a PICES Physical Oceanography and Climate range of technical skills to examine and understand Committee; Lead author for sections 3.2 and 4.1 patterns of climate variability and change in the of Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and PNW. One tool, http://www.climate.washington. Socioeconomic Information about the Puget edu/trendanalysis, developed by the OWSC, allows Sound Ecosystem (2007). M H Ruckelshaus and M users to plot maps of trends in station data for the McClure, coordinators; prepared in cooperation whole PNW over user-specified intervals, and plot with the Sound Science collaborate team. U.S. individual time series. This tool aids stakeholders Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and who want to know details of the patterns of Atmospheric Administration (NMFS), Northwest climate variability and change, often with specific Fisheries Science Center. Seattle, Washington. 93p. applications. The OWSC also launched a newsletter for providing updates on Washington State climate • Edward Miles and Nathan Mantua - Received events. Steve Dettman, newly appointed Manager of the World Wildlife Fund-UK, to discuss and • UW Surface Water Monitor (Wood; ongoing) learn how CSES operates and what design and The Surface Water Monitor (SWM) is an procedures might be transferable to the UK experimental continental U.S. implementation of situation. His program , The Thames River Climate the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic Change Program, has a key goal of developing a model that combines a retrospective daily analysis comprehensive adaptation plan for climate change of over 90 years with real-time, daily-updated for the entire Thames River Basin. (April 2008) simulations of land surface climate and moisture conditions. The retrospective dataset provides a • Philip Mote -American Meteorological Society foundation for research toward understanding Committee on Climate Variations and Change; hydrologic trends and variability on a national scale Organized a student workshop on climate since 1915. It also provides an unusually consistent change at the 2008 AMS annual meeting in New statistical background for interpreting the real-time Orleans; UW advisory committee on the National moisture estimates, enabling their depiction as Ecological Observation Network; Co-hosted the anomalies or percentiles with respect to historical 2007 annual meeting of the American Association conditions. The system is also used for prediction of State Climatologists; Provided testimony on at seasonal lead times, enabling the production of reorienting the U.S. Global Change Research operational hydrologic, drought-oriented forecasts Program toward a user-driven endeavor, May 2007, that complement those currently available from Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC. operational centers. Under the NOAA TRACS program funding, the SWM was advanced by the inclusion of (1) real-time cumulative runoff products; (2) real-time drought indices (SPI,

25 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Standardized Runoff Index); and (3) weekly land scheme, and a grid-based version of the NWS updating drought relevant forecasts of soil moisture Sacramento soil moisture accounting model. From and runoff (which serve as input to the Climate the models, they have also evaluated the sensitivity Prediction Center’s (CPC) Drought Briefing and of runoff to temperature changes as fractional CPC Drought Outlook). The SWM is available at changes in annual runoff per °C of (uniform) http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/ temperature increase. index.shtml. • Stream flow Forecast Calibration (Wood; • West-Wide Drought Forecasting System: A completed) Scientific Foundation for NIDIS (Steinemann, This research outlined and evaluated a method for Wood; ongoing) forecast calibration as applied to seasonal stream In collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey flow prediction for correcting forecast reliability (USGS), California Applications Program, National errors. The approach used the correlation of Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), forecast ensemble means with observations to and NOAA Climate Prediction Center, CSES generate a conditional forecast mean and spread is developing a drought forecast and nowcast that lie between the climatological mean and system for the western U.S. which will serve as a spread (when the forecast has no skill) and the raw scientific framework for prediction and assessment forecast mean with zero spread (when the forecast of agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrologic is perfect). Retrospective forecasts of summer (stream flow) drought in the region. This work will period runoff in the Feather River basin (CA) were provide early warning capabilities and science- used to demonstrate that the approach improves based indicators that are critical for NIDIS, an upon the performance of traditional Ensemble effort of the Western Governors’ Association, the Stream flow Prediction forecasts by reducing errors National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, the in forecast mean and improving spread estimates, USGS, and other agencies. The team’s work will thereby increasing forecast reliability and skill. also contribute to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses the group’s National Surface Water • Importance of Hydrologic Model Calibration to Monitor, by incorporating USGS data into methods Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting (Lettenmaier; to characterize and forecast drought conditions, completed) persistence, and recovery. Further, the scientists are How much is forecast error reduced by calibration, working directly with water managers in selected beyond what can be accomplished by post- states in the region (Washington, California, and processing to remove bias? The group addressed others) to apply this forecast system to water this question through retrospective evaluation resources decisions. of forecast errors at eight stream flow forecast locations distributed across the western U.S. • Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado Forecast periods of length ranging from one to six River Stream flow (Lettenmaier; ongoing) months were investigated, for forecasts initiated To better understand the reasons for the wide from December 1 through June 1, which span the range of projected losses (6 to 45%) in naturalized period when most runoff occurs from snowmelt- stream flow in the Colorado River basin by the dominated western U.S. rivers. Ensemble Stream mid-21st century, CSES is collaborating with other flow Prediction forecast errors were evaluated both western U.S. RISAs to undertake a systematic for uncalibrated forecasts to which a percentile intercomparison of methodologies and models to mapping bias correction approach was applied, understand why different modeling approaches and for forecasts from an objectively-calibrated produce such different levels of flow reduction. To model without explicit bias correction. Using the date, the team has evaluated annual elasticities of coefficient of prediction (Cp), which essentially is annual stream flow (fractional change in runoff a measure of the fraction of variance explained by divided by fractional change in precipitation) as the forecast, the team found that the reduction in inferred from observations and from three spatially forecast error as measured by Cp that is achieved distributed land surface schemes: the Variable by bias correction alone is nearly as great as that Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, the NOAH resulting from hydrologic model calibration.

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Contributions to the IPCC’s Nobel Prize • Todd Mitchell, CSES researcher: Contributor to the Fourth Assessment Working Group I Report, On December 10, 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel Chapter 3 “Observations: Surface and Atmospheric on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Gore Jr. were Climate Change”. awarded the Nobel Peace Prize “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man- • Philip Mote, CSES researcher: Lead author for made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the the Fourth Assessment Working Group I Report, measures that are needed to counteract such change”. Chapter 4 “Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen The 2007 assessment process involved more than 2500 G r o u n d ”. scientific expert reviewers, 800 contributing authors, and 450 lead authors from more than 130 countries. • David L. Peterson, CSES researcher: an author for The Nobel Prize was recognition of the efforts of all the Second Assessment and reviewer for the Third scientists and government representatives involved in Assessment. past and present IPCC assessment efforts. • Eric Salathé, CSES researcher: Contributing The following CSES scientists were involved in writing author for the Third Assessment Working Group I and/or reviewing the Intergovernmental Panel on Report, Chapter 7 “Physical Climate Processes and Climate Change’s recent assessment reports, and as Feedbacks”. such, share the honor of the IPCC’s Nobel Prize: • Edward Sarachik, Co-Principal Investigator for the • Edward L. Miles, Co-Principal Investigator for the CSES: Reviewer for Fourth Assessment Working CSES: Reviewer for the IPCC Third and Fourth Group I report, Chapter 8 “Climate Models and Assessment Working Group II Reports, North their Evaluation”; Lead author for the Second America chapters; lead author for the IPCC First Assessment Working Group I Report, chapter on Assessment Working Group II Report, Chapter 8 climate processes. “Oceans”.

27 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Thermal Modeling and Prediction (TMAP)

PI 6. To collaborate with and assist sites utilizing TMAP UW - Andrew Chiodi software and to provide support for sites utilizing NOAA - D.E. Harrison LAS for data access. 7. To develop data management solutions that makes Other Personnel large volumes of oceanographic data accessible to UW - Mark Carson, Jeremy Malczyk, Kevin O’Brien users on demand in real-time. Task II Accomplishments Western Atlantic SST variability and hurricane activ- NOAA Primary Contact ity. D.E. Harrison, PMEL TMAP research has lead to a better understanding of the forcing mechanisms for sea surface temperature NOAA Goals anomalies over a region of the Western Atlantic and 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal Caribbean important for hurricane formation and & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based intensification. Management 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Comparison of 50-year ocean temperature trends from Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond different analysis. 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water TMAP research has documented the character and Information statistical significance of temperature trends discernable from the observational record. Recent research Description has looked further at the effects of data analysis on TMAP performs data and modeling studies to identify computed ocean temperature trends. Results point out climatically significant ocean-atmosphere interaction serious difficulties in assessing the certainty associated patterns and their linkages to US and global weather with current estimates of heat content and temperature anomalies. TMAP also develops and makes use of trends. These results are important to current efforts information technology capabilities to manage and to diagnose the reasons for possible temperature analyze large observational and computer generated trends and have been disseminated in peer-reviewed data sets. publication.

Objectives Using outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) to 1. To document sea surface and upper ocean determine ENSO-state. temperature variability, trends, and better Work has been completed to develop and characterize understand their relationship to surface climate an OLR-based method for determining the anomaly patterns. state of the tropical Pacific. Motivation for this comes 2. To improve understanding of the relationship from current understanding of the physics that allow between westerly wind events and recent El Nino- some global seasonal weather anomalies to be driven Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior. by anomalous tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation. 3. To develop methods of assessing the state of the Results show this index to be well suited for tropical Pacific that are ideal for determining its determining when such anomalies are driven from the influence on global seasonal weather anomalies. tropical Pacific (paper in review at J. Climate, results 4. To improve understanding of the mechanisms presented at the World Meteorological Society-Climate responsible for the observed seasonal cycle of sea Information and Prediction Services Workshop on surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific. ENSO, April 8-10, 2008, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA.) 5. To develop and provide software solutions that integrates and disseminates data and data products to the research and educational communities over the Internet.

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Changes in the response of the eastern equatorial Observing System Monitoring Center(OSMC) at Pacific to westerly wind events. NOAA Office of Climate Observations. It has long been recognized that the westerly wind The OSMC (www.osmc.noaa.gov) has grown in its role events (WWE) in the central and western equatorial as a monitoring tool over the past year. As Candyce Pacific are associated with warming of equatorial Clark, from the OCO, said: “The OSMC is the national Pacific surface temperature. Previous research has and international face for our work in building and shown that in general and prior to the large El Nino of maintaining the global ocean observing system for 1997/98, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has climate.” The OSMC now has the ability to show Argo tended to warm significantly in response to a WWE. profiles, ship and drifter tracks, as well as time series Since 1997/98, however, there has been relatively little data. The scientists have integrated ocean carbon warming observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific, data into the OSMC as well this year. They have also even though WWEs of roughly the same number integrated the Reynolds SST error field climate product and character have continued to be observed. TMAP into the OSMC, and are focused on adding more research has investigated the reason for the recent lack climate services and climate products to the OSMC of WWE-related eastern equatorial pacific warming. tool. Analysis has shown that, although the strength of the WWEs remains largely unchanged, the easterly trade The Curator Data Portal at the Geophysical Fluid winds have tended to strengthen during the onset of a Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). post-1997/98 WWE. Model experiments have shown The Curator Data Portal at GFDL (http://data1.gfdl. that this strengthening of the easterly trades is capable noaa.gov:8380/las/servlets/dataset) is a Live Access of wiping out the warming that would otherwise Server (LAS) that was installed to assist GFDL scientists occur in response to a WWE. This suggests that the and the general public in gaining access to the results recent increase in frequency of “Dateline” El Ninos, of model runs done for the IPCC AR4 effort. Working or El Ninos that lack strong warming in the eastern with GFDL, the team has developed tools to read equatorial Pacific, may be due to changes in the ocean configuration information out of their massive database response to WWEs. This work has been presented at of model runs, configure aggregations of the resulting the American Meteorological Society 15th Conference data using the THREDDS data server to ease data on Air-Sea Interaction, 20-24 August 2007, Portland, access, and integrate those datasets into an LAS for easy Oregon, USA (paper in review at J. Climate.) browsing and analyzing. They have recently added the ability to do seasonal regridding of monthly datasets The effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle in on the fly, as well as integrated functionality to allow the eastern equatorial Pacific. native, curvilinear access to the ocean experiments that Research has examined the roles of zonal and are run with GFDL’s complex tripolar grid. meridional wind stress and of surface heat flux in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) with a Live Access Server (LAS) interfaces for carbon dioxide primitive equation (PE) model of the tropical Pacific datasets. Ocean. Results indicate that simply reproducing a New LAS user interfaces have been developed that qualitatively accurate seasonal cycle of SST does not allow online browsing of the Takahashi and Surface necessarily allow meaningful conclusions about the Ocean CO2 (SOCAT) datasets. The LAS-SOCAT processes that control the seasonal cycle of SST to be interface will serve as the primary online tool for made. Results also suggest that a model simulation performing quality control of SOCAT data. This is a must at least reproduce all the documented near surface necessary step prior to the much-anticipated public kinematic features of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue release of this data set. region reasonably well, before accurate inferences can be made from model experiments. This provides useful guidelines to current efforts to develop and evaluate more complex fully coupled air-sea models and shows that results for simple or intermediate ocean models that do not have this level of fidelity to the observations will be difficult to interpret (paper in preparation).

29 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction

PI RAMA and is responsible for providing all scientific NOAA – Michael McPhaden instrumentation in TAO. Research related to several aspects of ocean-atmosphere interaction and the Other Personnel role of the ocean in climate is conducted within this UW - Patrick A’Hearn, Daniel Dougherty, Curran Fey, programmatic framework. Gregory Foltz, Dai McClurg, Sookmi Moon, Sonya Noor, Keith Ronnholm, Natalia Stefanova, Linda Objectives Stratton, Dongxiao Zhang, Xuebin Zhang, David 1. Ensure high quality and timely access to moored Zimmerman time series data for climate research. NOAA - Paul Freitag, Robert Kamphaus, Steve Kunze, 2. Contribute to the scientist’s understanding of the Ben Moore, Patricia Plimpton, Andy Shepherd ENSO cycle, the monsoons, and tropical Atlantic climate variability. Task II 3. Advance the understanding of decadal variability NOAA Primary Contact and trends in the tropics. 4. Establish RAMA in the Indian Ocean for climate Climate Program Office studies. NOAA Goal Accomplishments 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to 1. Research carried out at JISAO and elsewhere Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond using data from the TAO/TRITON, PIRATA and RAMA arrays depends critically on the collection, Description quality control, archival, and web-based display JISAO research on tropical atmosphere-ocean and dissemination of mooring data sets. At JISAO, interaction seeks to improve understanding and considerable effort is devoted to providing easy prediction of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation access to high quality multi-variate time series (ENSO). The centerpiece of the ENSO observing through the TAO web page (http://www.pmel. system is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) noaa.gov/tao/). Between July 2007 and June 2008, mooring array, designed to monitor variability TAO web pages received over 20 million hits and in the upper ocean and at the surface. NOAA delivered more than 235,000 mooring data files to and JISAO scientists at PMEL maintain the TAO the international community. array in collaboration with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). 2. The team studied the causes of the seasonal cycle of Complementing the TAO array in the tropical Pacific mixed layer salinity in the tropical North Atlantic is the Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Ocean from a combination of satellite, atmospheric Atlantic (PIRATA), maintained by NOAA and JISAO reanalysis, and in situ data sets. Results indicate scientists at PMEL in collaboration with institutions that the salinity balance varies regionally, leading in Brazil and France. This array provides data to to a seasonal cycle in sea surface salinity (SSS) advance the scientists’ understanding and ability to with significant spatial inhomogeneity. Horizontal predict intraseasonal-to-decadal variations in the salinity advection plays a key role in the salinity climate of the Atlantic sector. In addition, NOAA balance of the western tropical North Atlantic and JISAO scientists, along with members of the (10°–25°N, 50°–65°W), where seasonal variations international community, are engaged in developing in SSS are relatively large. In contrast, in the north- an Indian Ocean moored buoy-observing system for central basin (15°–25°N, 20°–50°W), freshening monsoon research and forecasting. This system is from meridional advection balances an excess of called the Research Moored Array for African-Asian- evaporation over precipitation, resulting in a very Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA). weak seasonal cycle of mixed layer salinity. Farther TAO Project Office at PMEL manages PIRATA and south (5°–15°N, 20°–45°W), seasonal variations

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of precipitation are more significant and drive a Atlantic. It is further found that the MOC transport pronounced seasonal cycle of mixed layer salinity. is significantly correlated with SST in the north Throughout most of the tropical North Atlantic the Atlantic, and it exerts more influence than the NAO sum of the surface moisture flux and horizontal over north tropical Atlantic SST. This study provides advection underestimates the mixed layer salinity direct observational evidence for the MOC’s role tendency during boreal fall and winter. This is the in the tropical Atlantic SST gradient mode and the time of year with highest wind speeds and highest Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). negative buoyancy flux, suggesting that vertical turbulent entrainment of high-salinity thermocline 5. Previous studies have described the impacts of wind water may be important, consistent with the results stress variations in the eastern Pacific on sea surface of an analyses carried out with daily moored time temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El series data. The results of this study highlight the Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. complexity of the seasonal salinity balance in However, these studies have usually focused on the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and the need individual El Niño events and typically have not for continued in situ monitoring of upper ocean considered impacts on La Niña - the cold phase of salinity and currents to complement future space- the ENSO cycle. The team has examined effects based surface salinity measurements. of wind stress and heat flux forcing on interannual SST variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific from 3. The group used measurements from three long- sensitivity tests using ocean general circulation term moored PIRATA buoys to investigate impact model over the period from 1980 to 2002. Results of barrier layer thickness (BLT) on the seasonal indicate that in the Niño-3 region (5°N-5°S, cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the 90°-150°W) a zonal wind stress anomaly of 0.01 central tropical North Atlantic Ocean. They found N m-2 leads to about 1°C SST anomaly and that that seasonal variations of BLT exert a considerable air-sea heat fluxes tend to damp interannual SST influence on SST through their modulation of the anomalies generated by other physical processes vertical heat flux at the base of the mixed layer, at a rate of about 40 W m-2 per 1°C. These results estimated as the residual in the mixed layer heat systematically quantify expectations from previous balance. Cooling associated with this term is event specific numerical model studies that local strongest when the barrier layer is thin and the forcing in the eastern Pacific can significantly affect vertical temperature gradient at the base of the the evolution of both warm and cold phases of the mixed layer is strong. Conversely, thick barrier ENSO cycle. The results are also consistent with the layers are associated with a significant reduction in team’s previously published empirical analysis that the vertical temperature gradient at the base of the indicated a wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m-2 leads mixed layer, which suppresses the upward transfer to about 1°C SST anomaly in the Nino-3 region. of cooler water into the mixed layer. Forced ocean and coupled ocean-atmosphere models that do 6. The scientists deployed two new ATLAS moorings not properly simulate the barrier layer may have in the Bay of Bengal in late 2007 to expand RAMA difficulty reproducing the observed seasonal cycle to 18 sites (out of 46 planned). These new moorings of SST in the tropical North Atlantic. provided unique in situ data during the passage in April 2008 of cyclone Nargis, which inflicted 4, The scientists use historical hydrographic data in catastrophic human casualty losses and property the western boundary region off the Brazil coast damage in Myanmar. RAMA and other data sets to derive a time series of transport in the North are being analyzed for publication to describe the Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC), a major conduit oceanic and atmospheric processes associated with for Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) the development of cyclone Nargis in the Bay of return flow. MOC transport at 6°S exhibits large Bengal. multidecadal variability. No significant weakening trend is found in the 40-year transport time series, in contrast to reported weakening trend based on five hydrographic sections in the North

31 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Analyzing Tropospheric Temperature Trends Using MSU Observations: Global and Regional Distributions

PI previous analyses and radiosonde observations. They UW - Qiang Fu will document the global and regional distributions as well as the seasonal variation of the tropospheric Other Personnel temperature trends, and compare these trends with the UW - Celeste M. Johanson surface temperature variations from in situ data. This study will lead to a better understanding of Task III tropospheric temperature versus surface temperature variations. The dataset produced from this proposed NOAA Primary Contact research will be useful for a variety of international Christopher Miller, William Murray and national programs and assessments including the IPCC. NOAA Goal 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Objectives Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond The overall objective of this NOAA-funded research project is to evaluate and improve the MSU tropospheric temperature retrieval method, develop Description a high quality MSU tropospheric temperature dataset The inconsistency between the satellite-inferred for climate research, and understand the tropospheric tropospheric temperature trends and the trends near temperature trends. the surface based on in situ observations, beginning with the pioneering analysis of microwave sounding Accomplishments unit (MSU) observations by Spencer and Christy 2007/2008 is the last year of this NOAA funded project (1990), has raised questions about the ability of current and below is a summary of the main research efforts global climate models (GCMs) to predict climate and finds in this year. changes, the reliability of the observational data used 1. Tropospheric temperatures in the Antarctic are to derive temperature trends, and the reality of human- retrieved by linearly combining satellite-borne induced climate change. In last few years, the MSU Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channels 2 and observations from the NOAA polar orbiting satellites 4 observations. The group show that satellite- have been analyzed by multiple, independent research inferred tropospheric temperature trends agree teams, which have greatly improved the MSU data to remarkably well with radiosonde observations, satisfy climate research requirements of homogeneity particularly in the winter season. It is illustrated and calibration. However, until recently only one that the troposphere over the Antarctic continent research team had derived the mean temperature in has cooled in the summer and fall seasons since the lower atmosphere based on the MSU observations. 1979, which agrees with the findings of Thompson That dataset has been widely used in climate research and Solomon (2002). It is shown that significant despite its uncertainties. tropospheric warming prevails in the winter and spring seasons over most of the continent but the Recently Fu et al. (2004) developed a novel statistical team also finds, that half of the East Antarctic has approach to derive the tropospheric temperature using experienced significant winter cooling. They find two MSU channels, which is free of the complications that the largest winter tropsopheric warming of afflicting the previous analyses. In this research project about 0.6 – 0.8 K/decade for 1979-2005 occurs over for the period from 2005 to 2008, the team plans to the west side of the continent between 120oW and fully evaluate and further improve the methodology 180oW (and surrounding Ross Sea) where there are developed by Fu et al. (2004), and to develop a high no radiosonde observations. The homogeneous quality tropospheric temperature dataset for the climate winter tropospheric warming over the Antarctic research. The group will compare this dataset with from ERA40 reanalysis since 1979 is not supported by observations. The MSU stratospheric

32 Climate

temperatures exhibit the expected large cooling 3. In a progress article, Seidel et al. (2008) reviewed during the spring and summer seasons over recent observational evidence about the widening the Antarctic. The research also finds large of the tropical belt in a changing climate. It is stratospheric warming in the winter and spring pointed out that this expansion has potentially seasons over half of southern hemisphere high important implications for subtropical societies and latitudes. Such warming exhibits semi-annular may lead to profound changes in the global climate shape with warming centers located at 90oE and system. Most importantly, pole ward movement 180oE in the winter and spring, respectively. See of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, Johanson and Fu (2007). such as jet streams and storm tracks, could result in shifts in precipitation patterns affecting natural 2. Fu et al. (Science, 2006) identified enhanced ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. The stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming implications of the expansion for stratospheric in the mid-latitude belts of both hemispheres, circulation and the distribution of ozone in the implying a pole ward shift of the jet stream atmosphere are as yet poorly understood. The and expansion of Hadley cell. Using three observed recent rate of expansion is greater than meteorological reanalyzes and three outgoing climate model predictions of expansion over the long-wave radiation (OLR) datasets, the scientists 21st century, which suggests that there is much yet further confirm that the Hadley circulation has to be learned about this aspect of global climate a significant expansion of about 2 to 4.5 degrees change. See Seidel et al. (2008) of latitude since 1979. The expansion of the Hadley circulation implies a pole ward expansion In addition the team has been continuing to provide the of the band of subtropical subsidence, leading to MSU-derived tropospheric temperature product to the enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming and NOAA NCDC’s Climate Monitoring Branch in the 8th pole ward shifts of the subtropical dry zone. This of each month for the period of record updated from would contribute to an increased frequency of 1979 to the most recent month for its monthly State of midlatitude droughts in both hemispheres. See Hu the Climate reporting. This product has also been used and Fu (2007). in both national (CCSP 2006) and international (IPCC 2007) assessments.

33 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) – Monitoring the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

PI The twenty Institutions from ten different countries UW - Ignatius Rigor support the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the World Meteorological Organization Other Personnel (WMO) World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, UW - Mark Ortmeyer maintain the observational array of the IABP. The IABP is an Action Group of the Joint WMO-IOC Task III Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). NOAA Primary Contact John Calder, Arctic Research Office Objectives Maintain a well-spaced observing network, to monitor NOAA Goal air, sea, and ice conditions across the Arctic Ocean. 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water Accomplishments Information Research from this project was presented by Secretary Description Kempthorne to illustrate the decline of Arctic sea ice, Dramatic changes in Arctic climate have been noted and justify the listing of the Polar Bears as a threatened during the past two decades. Observations from the species under the Endangered Species Act International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) have (e.g. Figure 1, which was adapted from Secretary played a significant role in the detection of this change. Kempthorne’s press conference: http://www.doi.gov/ For example, using IABP data, Walsh et al. (1996) secretary/speeches/081405_speech.html.) showed that sea level pressure (SLP) has decreased; Rigor et al. (2000) showed that surface air temperature Press Interviews and News: (SAT) has increased; and in concert, the circulation • Revkin, Andy: Skeptics on Human Climate of sea ice and the ocean have changed so as to flow Impact Seize on Cold Spell. New York Times, less clockwise (Steele and Boyd, 1998; Kwok, 2000; March 2, 2008. and Rigor et al. 2002). In addition to studies of Arctic • Arnold, Elizabeth: How Serious is Climate climate and climate change, observations from the Change in Alaska?, National Public Radio, Feb. IABP are also used to validate satellites, for forcing, 14, 2008. validation and assimilation into numerical climate • Kizzia, Tom: Polar ice may break 2007 record, models, and for forecasting weather and ice conditions. Anchorage Daily News, Feb. 12, 2008. • Tracy, John: The front lines of climate change,

Figure 1. Maps of the age of sea ice presented by Secretary Kempthorne.

34 Climate

KTUU 2 News (NBC Anchorage), Feb. 11, 2008. For the International Polar Year, the team has deployed • Revkin, Andy: Arctic Melt Unnerves the or coordinated the deployment of over 200 buoys. The Experts. New York Times, October 1, 2007. latest buoy positions are shown in Figure 2. During • Glenn Farley, Polar Bears Losing Their Habitat, 2007 most of the buoys were blown towards the KING 5 News, September 7, 2007. Canadian Archipelago (Figure 2, blue, black and red • Revkin, Andy: Analysts See ‘Simply Incredible’ dots), so for 2008 the group worked to spread their Shrinking of Floating Ice in the Arctic. New York deployments across the entire Arctic (green dots). Times, August 10, 2007.

Figure 2. Map of buoy positions on August 4, 2008. The green dots mark buoys deployed in 2008. There are currently 91 buoys reporting.

35 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Forecasting the Condition of Sea Ice on Weekly to Seasonal Time Scales

PI Objectives UW - Ignatius G. Rigor Update and improve the National Ice Center’s ability National Ice Center - Pablo Clemente-Colon, Lt. JG to forecast sea ice using new observations and results James Brinkley from climate research by:

Other Personnel 1. Validating and improving ice growth models using UW – Mark Ortmeyer new in situ observations of surface air temperature, NIC – Todd Arbetter ice and ocean temperatures, and ice thickness (Figures 1 and 2) obtained by the IABP, and funded Task III by NOAA.

NOAA Primary Contact 2. Develop long range forecasts/outlooks of Arctic Josh Foster, TRACS sea ice conditions by exploiting the significant lag correlations between surface air temperature (SAT) NOAA Goal and sea ice extent with large scale variations in 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to atmospheric circulation (e.g. the Arctic Oscillation Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond (AO), and the relationship between the age (thickness) of sea ice and summer sea ice extent. Description Accomplishments The Arctic has long been considered a harbinger of global climate change since numerical simulations of 1. Research from this project was presented by global climate change predict that if the concentration Secretary Kempthorne to illustrate the decline of Arctic sea ice, and justify the listing of the of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles, the greenhouse- warming signal will be much greater at high latitudes. Polar Bears as an threatened species under the This “polar amplification” of the global warming Endangered Species Act (e.g. Figure 1, which is attributed to changes in sea ice and snow (ice- was adapted from Secretary Kempthorne’s snow albedo feedback). Indeed, many studies of the press conference: http://www.doi.gov/secretary/ observational records show polar amplification of the speeches/081405_speech.html.) warming trends, and four of the last seven summers have set record minima for Arctic sea ice extent. Could the scientists have predicted these past minima? Through this project, the team plans to answer this question, and hope to improve their operational capability to predict the conditions of Arctic sea ice so that they can forecast future minima with demonstrable skill.

36 Climate

Figure 1. Maps of the age of sea ice presented by Secretary Kempthorne.

2. Press Interviews and News: • Revkin, Andy: Skeptics on Human Climate Impact Seize on Cold Spell. New York Times, March 2, 2008. • Arnold, Elizabeth: How Serious is Climate Change in Alaska?, National Public Radio, Feb. 14, 2008. • Kizzia, Tom: Polar ice may break 2007 record, Anchorage Daily News, Feb. 12, 2008. • Tracy, John: The front lines of climate change, KTUU 2 News (NBC Anchorage), Feb. 11, 2008. • Revkin, Andy: Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts. New York Times, October 1, 2007. • Glenn Farley, Polar Bears Losing Their Habitat, KING 5 News, September 7, 2007. • Revkin, Andy: Analysts See ‘Simply Incredible’ Shrinking of Floating Ice in the Arctic. New York Times, August 10, 2007.

3. During the past year, the scientists have been working to validate and refine the sea ice forecasts. Projection of September 2008 minimums Validation of the age model used for seasonal 1. Conservative: 4.02 million km2 forecasts is documented in the papers listed in 2. Moderate: 3.32 million km2 Appendix 11. In Figure 2, the group shows their 3. Aggressive: 2.64 million km2 outlook for sea ice in September 2008. 4. Extreme: 1.52 million km2

Figure 2. Outlook for the retreat of this summer’s sea ice extent. The colored areas show ice that the scientists expect to survive the summer melt season given conservative (all colors), moderate (red, orange, and yellow), aggressive (red and orange), and extreme (red) conditions for retreat based on the age and thickness of sea ice at the end of July 2008. These maps show that even their conservative estimate of 4.02 million sq. km. is below the current record minimum set last year.

37 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Simulation of the ARGO Observing System

PI Accomplishments UW - Edward Sarachik The team has been looking at the expected performance RSMAS/University of Miami - Igor Kamenkovich of the ARGO observing system for the ocean. They carried an analysis in: Other Personnel • a global coarse-resolution GCM, and UW - Wei Cheng • a high-resolution model of the North Atlantic. NOAA - D.E. Harrison To simulate the actual ARGO sampling procedure, Task III the sampling of the GCM-simulated temperature and salinity takes place every 10 days, and up to the 1500 NOAA Primary Contact meter depth. From the resulting “measurements”, Joel M. Levy, Office of Climate Observation temperature and salinity of the ocean is reconstructed NOAA Climate Program Office using objective analysis. The team focuses on such important oceanic variables, as the sea-surface NOAA Goal temperature, upper-ocean heat content and mixed- 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to layer depth. Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond Description The analysis of course resolution, global simulations aims at: The main goal of this study is to examine how well • studying limitations of the ARGO system in the ARGO observing system determines the state reconstructing large-scale oceanic fields, and of the global upper ocean. The scientists sample • analyzing the effects of oceanic advection on the and reconstruct oceanic fields from ocean general expected accuracy of the ARGO system. circulation models (GCMs), in gradually more realistic sequence of simulations. By quantifying errors in the reconstructed fields, they estimate accuracy of the The team, therefore, accomplished the first major ARGO observing system, and therefore directly address objective of their study. The group looked at three NOAA’s Program Plan for Building a Sustained Ocean sampling considerations: observing System for Climate. i. a “standard case” with the floats being advected by GCM-simulated currents; Objectives ii. a “parked-float case”, in which the float locations 1. To evaluate a performance of the simulated ARGO are fixed in time; and system in a coarse resolution model, and quantify iii. a “random-sampling case”, in which the floats the influence of the oceanic advection. are randomly re-distributed every time sampling 2. To estimate the influence of the mesoscale eddy takes place. advection and variability on the performance of the ARGO observing system in high-resolution The movement of the floats increases the overall spatial models. coverage, but decreases the temporal resolution at any given location. In reality, the ARGO floats are advected with both the steady large-scale currents and high- frequency mesoscale eddies. Comparison of cases (i) and (ii) above, therefore, addresses the importance of the large-scale advection, explicitly included in the standard case. The potential importance of the eddy advection is estimated by the random-sampling case (iii), where the eddies, not explicitly simulated in this GCM, are assumed to redistribute the floats during the time between samplings.

38 Climate

Overall performance of the simulated observing system The eddy-advection has a pronounced effect on is good, and the reconstructed climatology is very close the simulated accuracy of the ARGO system. In to the actual GCM-simulated values. However, all three agreement with the group’s previous coarse-resolution cases exhibit similarly significant differences between experiments, the regions of the fast advection, such the reconstructed and actual fields within regions of as the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current, strong currents and high gradients. The differences are correspond to the largest systematic biases in the smaller in the random-sampling case, due to a greater reconstructed fields. The amplification of mesoscale overall spatial sampling coverage. Since the intensity variability leads to nearly uniform increase in the of these currents and gradients is underestimated biases. The effects of the high-frequency variability by the coarse-resolution GCM, the deviations of the in the temperature and salinity are comparable in reconstructed fields from the actual values are expected magnitude to the effects of eddy advection. The analysis to be even greater in reality than in these simulations. of the effects of more frequent sampling is under way. This result emphasizes the need for additional, dense Results from this study were presented at the NOAA spatial sampling in the vicinity of the western oceanic Climate Observation Program 4th Annual System boundaries and in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Review (May 10-12, 2006, Silver Spring, MD).

The analysis of the eddy-resolving North Atlantic Two papers are in preparation: one describing the simulations focused on the role of mesoscale eddy results from a coarse-resolution GCM and another advection and variability, thus addressing the second describing the results from the eddy-resolving major objective of this study. The group analyzed four simulations. experiments: i. a “standard case” with GCM-simulated high- frequency variability in velocities, temperature and salinity; ii. a “no-eddy case” with high-frequency variability removed; iii. a “strong-eddy case” with high-frequency variability amplified; iv. a “eddy-advection case” with high-frequency variability in the velocities only.

39 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Distributions of Rain vs. Snow: Combining Sensors and Models for Better Flood Forecasting in the American River Basin, California

PI Objectives UW - Jessica Lundquist 1. Examine the rain-snow line in the basin. 2. Map near-surface air temperature and relative Other Personnel humidity across the basin with a variety of UW - Mark Raleigh techniques and analyze their effectiveness. 3. Simulate the snowpack with a high-resolution Task III energy-accounting model. 4. Check the physically based snow model against NOAA Primary Contact the calibrated, operational snow model and Office of Hydrologic Development and against surface measurements and satellite images Hydrometerological Testbed Program (MODIS). Boulder, Colorado 5. Analyze distributed runoff against four basin- interior stream gages and assess the dominant NOAA Goal controls on stream flow timing at various scales 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water and elevations. Information Description Along the western coast of the United States, mountain runoff is both a resource and a hazard to densely populated areas downstream, providing a critically necessary water supply, yet also producing dangerous floods. Meteorologic and hydrologic observations are sparse at higher elevations, and complex topography results in heterogeneous distributions of both temperature and precipitation. This project examines both meteorological and hydrological processes in the North Fork (NF) of the American River Basin, California, in conjunction with NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT). Specifically, this project will address: 1. How does the observed snowline vary spatially and with elevation in various events? Are there systematic differences, and can this knowledge improve forecasts? 2. How do prior surface snow conditions (e.g., depth, spatial extent) influence how the river and its sub basins respond to a mixed rain-snow event? How can knowledge of these antecedent conditions improve forecasts? Field notebook

40 Climate

Stream anchor Jessica Lundquist Accomplishments 1. In September 2007, the team deployed 50 small, low-cost temperature/relative humidity sensors (Maxim iButtons, http://www.maxim-ic.com/ products/ibutton/) in trees above the snow level and 50 temperature sensors (Maxim iButtons and ONSET Pendants) about 5 cm below the ground along the elevational gradients of two road transects (Interstate 80 and the Forest Hill Road) and along a transects down and up the slopes of the main NF American River canyon. These will be retrieved and replaced in August 2008. This is a first step for objectives 1 and 2. 2. In September 2007, the group successfully retrieved, reprogrammed, and redeployed four stream stage recorders in four sub-basins of the Mark Raleigh NF American River. The data has been processed and quality-controlled. New data will be collected in August 2008. This is a first step for objective 5. Distributed modeling will begin next year. 3. Mark Raleigh, the graduate student supported by this project, has begun comparing the Utah Energy Balance snowmelt model with the operational Snow-17 model with observations at two locations within the basin to analyze how well they perform with various input data approximations and in different weather conditions. This is a first step for objectives 2, 3, and 4. The team anticipates submitting a publication related to this analysis in 2009. 4. Two peer-reviewed publications related to the project appeared in print in 2008 and two more were submitted for publication. These satisfy objective number 1 and describe techniques that are being used in objectives 2 and 5. The team anticipates submitting two more publications related to the project in early 2009. 41 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Implementation of Satellite-Derived Products at the Ocean Prediction Center

PI Accomplishments UW - Jerome Patoux The scientist has successfully implemented satellite- derived sea-level pressure fields at the NOAA OPC. TASK: III The surface pressure fields are derived from QuikSCAT measurements using the so-called “inverse” University NOAA Primary Contact of Washington planetary boundary layer (PBL) model John Cortinas, NOAA and available to weather forecasters in near-real time. The pressure fields are observed to be more consistent NOAA Goal with QuikSCAT winds than the NWP pressure fields. 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water The central pressure, the location of the center, the Information location of the fronts, as well as the regions of strong pressure gradient are often in better agreement with Description in situ observations and helpful to weather forecasters The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) and for the issuance of wind warnings to the marine the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the community. University of Washington proposed to collaborate on the implementation of satellite-derived products such In parallel, the scientist has also implemented a as surface pressure and surface wind in an operational version of the “direct” PBL model that calculates marine weather forecasting setting. This would result in surface wind vectors from NWP (GFS) sea-level a new set of products that would first be implemented pressure analyses. The resulting surface wind vectors at the OPC and at other centers at a later stage. are generally in better agreement with QuikSCAT

Objectives winds, which points to a possible limitation of the GFS PBL parameterization and the need for a statistical The main objectives were the implementation of assessment of the differences. satellite-derived products at the NOAA OPC and a better understanding of the capabilities of satellite- The researcher started developing a similar surface derived products in a marine weather forecasting pressure retrieval from the European scatterometer operational setting. ASCAT wind vectors and from radiometer

(Windsat) winds. These are still experimental. Their implementation in the OPC operational setting, as well as the statistical assessment of the University of Washington tools, will be the subject of a new NOAA CSTAR project starting in autumn 2008.

42 Climate

The Argo Project: Global Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability

PI Objectives UW - Stephen C. Riser To continue participation in the Argo program. This international program is designed to deploy 3000 pro- Other Personnel filing floats in the world ocean (approximately 300 km UW - D. Swift, A. Wong, A. Rupan, D. Ripley, A. resolution over the globe) that will collect profiles of Rogers, L. Ren temperature and salinity over the upper 1000 m of the world ocean at approximately 10 day intervals. This is Task III the first subsurface global ocean observing system. The US is committed to providing about half of these NOAA Primary Contact floats. For the past several years, the US has been Dr. Steve Piotrowicz providing about 300 floats per year, split among four institutions (SIO, WHOI, PMEL, and UW). In the past NOAA Goal year funds were received to build and deploy 119 floats. 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to The UW floats were deployed in the Indian Ocean, the Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond Antarctic, and the Pacific. Most continue to operate as designed for at least four years. At the present time the Description data are being used to examine the state of the Indian Argo is an international project that has deployed over Ocean Dipole, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the 3000 profiling floats in the world ocean since the year North Pacific and long-term (decade to century) scale 2000. Each of these floats collects temperature and of variability of salinity in the N. Pacific. salinity profiles at about 10 day intervals, between the ocean surface and a depth of 2000 m, and transmits Accomplishments the data to shore stations in real-time while on the sea During the past year, the team deployed 127 profiling surface. Over twenty countries are now participating floats as part of Argo, the largest number of any float in Argo, with the US providing about half the total group in the world. Floats were deployed in the number of floats. University of Washington (UW) Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Many of the is one of four US sites that provide Argo floats. In floats (about 40) were deployed in the Southern Ocean addition to constructing and deploying floats, the as part of NOAA’s contribution to the International UW group carries out delayed-mode adjustment of Polar Year. These floats used new software that allowed the salinity data collected by the UW floats, and the them to operate for extended periods under seasonal project PI, Dr. Stephen Riser serves as a member of the Antarctic ice. International Argo Steering Team. All of the Antarctic floats used the Iridium communication system, and many carried dissolved oxygen sensors.

43 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Improvement of Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction

PI Accomplishments UW – Cliff Mass 1. Research by Professors Cliff Mass and Greg Hakim has addressed weather analyses and forecasts on Other Personnel regional domains. One goal of this project is to UW – Greg Hakim produce the most accurate “Analysis of Record” (AOR) that consists of a three dimensional grid Task III of weather parameters informed by available observations. AOR is especially challenging in NOAA Primary Contact regions of complex terrain and heterogeneous Sam Contorno, NWS surface boundary conditions that are characteristic of the Pacific Northwest. The team has applied NOAA Goals an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to the AOR 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to problem, which yields not only the state of the Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond atmosphere, but also an estimate of the error in the analysis. 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water Information A real-time EnKF system has been running at the University of Washington since December 2004. Objectives This system has been quantitatively compared to 1. Development and testing of high-resolution observations and to other analyses and forecasts mesoscale data assimilation based on the Ensemble from operational centers. Torn and Hakim (2008) Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach. show that the UW EnKF compares favorably to 2. Further development and application of grid-based the products from operational centers, despite bias correction. using only roughly 20% of the full observational 3. Mesoscale ensemble prediction including post DataStream (no satellite radiances are used). The processing. most significant result is that the UW system 4. Evaluating and improving precipitation prediction outperforms the operational centers in the in complex terrain moisture field, which Torn and Hakim (2008) show 5. Enhancing the value of a heterogeneous mesoscale is due to cloud-track wind observations. observing system based on multiple observing networks. During the past year this EnKF system, which consists of a 90-member ensemble on a 36 km grid, was extended to include a 12 km nest over the Pacific Northwest. Data for this new grid are experimental, but available in real time at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~enkf/ enkf_assimilation.psp. Finally, experiments have been conducted with improvements to ensemble estimation of surface fields, including ensemble spread enhancement and bias correction. Various approaches are being tested for assimilating the wide variety of surface and upper air observations available over the region. These modifications will be implemented in the real-time system during the coming year.

44 Climate

2. Grid-based bias correction has been perfected for 4. Work has continued on evaluating and improving temperature, dew point, and precipitation, and is precipitation prediction over the complex terrain now being tested in real-time on the UW real-time of the Northwest. The group has added additional modeling system. Furthermore, bias correction is observations networks, improved observation being developed for wind speed and direction now. quality control, and have intensively verified the real-time high-resolution predictions from the UW 3. Two mesoscale ensemble systems are being WRF and MM5 systems. During the past year, the maintained and run in real-time: the EnKF system microphysics parameterizations have been updated noted above and the17-member UWME system. and the impact on precipitation skill has been Substantial work has continued on the post- analyzed. A major issue has been the evaluation processing of the UWME system using Bayesian of using a positive definite advection scheme for Model Averaging (BMA). Some examples include: moist variables, which appears to lessen the over building local BMA for precipitation and global prediction on windward slopes. The IMPROVE-2 BMA for wind speed and direction. In addition, field program data sets have been used for further the team has begun intensive verification of the research on microphysical parameterizations. BMA post-processing, including comparison to MOS. 5. The team has added approximately fifteen new networks during the past year: in total, they received about 4000 observations per hour over the Northwest. These observations are then quality controlled and provided to MESOWEST and UW verification and modeling applications.

45 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

46 Marine Ecosystems

Marine Ecosystems

47 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

FOCI

PIs Objectives UW - Nicholas Bond, 1. Improve understanding of the effects of climate NOAA - Phyllis Stabeno variability and change on the North Pacific marine ecosystem. Other Personnel 2. Maintain an observational network sufficient to UW - Albert Hermann, W.Cheng, Nancy Kachel, monitor the ecosystem, verify models and develop Muyin Wang, Dylan. Righi, Margaret Sullivan, Peter indices. Proctor 3. Describe the mechanisms that determine the NOAA - Jeff Napp, B. Megrey, C. Ladd, S. Macklin, J. spatial distribution of individual ground fish Overland species and ground fish assemblages. 4. Improve modeling capabilities in pursuit of Tasks II and III ecosystem-wide forecast models for commercially valuable fish and shellfish, endangered species and NOAA Primary Contact related interdependent species. Ned Cyr, Kenric Osgood Office of Science and Technology, NOAA Fisheries Accomplishments 1. Under the broad umbrella of EcoFOCI, the NOAA Goal North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal Productivity (NPCREP) project investigated & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based impacts of climate variations on marine ecosystems Management of the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. In collaboration with scientists from the University Description of Alaska Fairbanks and NOAA (AFSC and EcoFOCI comprises physical and biological PMEL), JISAO scientists helped develop models oceanographers, atmospheric scientists, and and generate indices for use in stock assessments fisheries biologists from JISAO, NOAA and other and fisheries management. The products of institutions. It promotes cooperation between scientific these efforts include not just research papers and disciplines, while determining the influence of the presentations, but also a website of environmental physical environment on marine populations and the and ecosystem data for the eastern Bering Sea subsequent impact on fisheries. Substantial variations (http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/), and chapters exist in the natural processes of the Gulf of Alaska, for the annual Stock Assessment and Fishery Bering Sea, and Aleutian Islands, ranging from Evaluation (SAFE) report published by NOAA. temperature and salinity changes, to fluctuations in sea-ice extent, atmospheric forcing, tidal influences, 2. A major inter-disciplinary and multi-institutional freshwater influx, productivity and mixed-layer depth. project, the Bering Sea Integrated Research These variations occur on many timescales: seasonal, Program (BSIERP), has begun its second year. annual, decadal and longer. EcoFOCI scientists JISAO scientists are playing key roles in the integrate field, laboratory and modeling studies collection and analysis of shipboard observations to determine how varying biological and physical of the physical and chemical properties of the environmental trends influence this large region. Bering Sea. This work is providing unprecedented detail on the differences in oceanographic structure from south to north on the shelf, and how these differences impact the nature and timing of springtime phytoplankton blooms. One of the more important findings here is that the spring bloom in the northern portion of the shelf where ice is prevalent is dominated by algae originating within and at the bottom of the sea ice, rather than organisms endemic to the water column below. 48 Marine Ecosystems

3. Substantial progress was made in the ability to 4. JISAO scientists are at the forefront of using global model the effects of past fluctuations and future coupled atmosphere-ocean model projections for trends in the climate forcing of the Bering Sea regional ecosystem applications. In particular, a on its marine populations. The linchpin of this major ongoing effort is based on the simulations capability is a state-of-the-art numerical ocean carried out for AR4 of the Intergovernmental Panel circulation model, the Regional Ocean Modeling on Climate Change (IPCC). This work builds System (ROMS). JISAO scientists are among the upon the experience gained in collaboration with world leaders in adapting ROMS for ecosystem NOAA/AFSC and other fishery scientists over the applications. This is being accomplished through past decade. A protocol has been developed for collaboration with physical and biological this particular application. Specifically, the model modelers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks hindcasts for the 20th century are used to select and Rutgers University, with the result being the models, and for assigning relative weights, for better predictions of nutrient concentrations ensemble-weighted 21st century forecasts. The and plankton abundance and distributions. results are providing some of the first estimates Notable advances have been made in terms of of probable changes in specific fish populations incorporating the effects of tides, and in better in association with climate change. For example, accounting for surface waves and winds on upper model projected changes in springtime winds over ocean mixing. Including past improvements in the Bering Sea shelf and East China Sea should the handling of sea ice, it appears that the present benefit the recruitment of northern rock sole and configuration of ROMS is suitable for addressing chub mackerel, respectively. On the other hand, the linkages between the physics and biology in a the projected warming in western Alaska, and pole mechanistic fashion. ward migration of the Aleutian low, are liable to be detrimental to the chum salmon populations in western Alaska. In general, this work complements the more detailed process studies and vertically integrated modeling efforts that are being carried out.

49 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Biophysical Models of Pollock Recruitment and Larval Snow Crab Transport

PIs Objectives UW - Carolina Parada, 1. Improve understanding of the effects of climate NOAA - Sarah Hinckley variability and change on the North Pacific marine ecosystem. Other Personnel 2. Improve understanding of walleye pollock UW - Dave Armstrong, Julian Burgos, Billy Ernst, recruitment and the connectivity of spawning and Albert Hermann, John Horne, Lobo Orensanz nursery areas in the GOA. NOAA - Bernard Megrey, Jeffrey Napp 3. Improve understanding of snow crab transport patterns in relation to temperature and the Task II connectivity of spawning and nursery areas in the in the Bering Sea. NOAA Primary Contact Douglas DeMaster Accomplishments Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 1. Biophysical models of pollock recruitment processes and spawning-nursery area connectivity in the western NOAA Goal Gulf of Alaska. 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal This project used coupled models to study spatial and & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based temporal recruitment variability and connectivity of Management spawning and nursery areas of walleye pollock in the western Gulf of Alaska. These coupled models were Description used to accomplish the following: This project has two parts: • Study how timing and spawning location of 1. The implementation of a spatially-explicit pollock in the Gulf of Alaska determined the biological model (Individual-based Model, IBM) location of nursery areas over the last several of the early life of walleye pollock (Theragra decades. chalcogramma) coupled to a hydrodynamic model • Study the relationship between inter-annual (Regional Ocean Modeling System, ROMS), variability of pollock larval transport and and the use of these models to study spatial and recruitment success. temporal recruitment variability and spawning- • Study the importance of the Shumagin Islands nursery area connectivity of walleye pollock in the as a nursery area, as well as alternative nursery western Gulf of Alaska (GOA). regions such as the Semidi Islands. 2. The implementation of a spatially-explicit • Compare the spatial distribution of pollock biological IBM of larval snow crab (Chionoecetes produced by the models with the distribution of opilio) coupled to a hydrodynamic model (ROMS), larvae and juveniles from surveys and the use of these models to study transport and settlement patterns and connectivity of spawning The group has now coupled the pollock IBM to the and nursery areas in the Bering Sea (BS). ROMS hydrodynamic model, and implemented a Java- based tracking tool. A validation exercise, comparing the modeled distribution of individuals released from a major spawning area, Shelikof Strait, and moving downstream as they age, to data derived from NOAA surveys, was completed. The model was found to accurately track the distributions of the different life stages (Figure 1). The agreement between data and predictions of the model demonstrated the ability of this biophysical model to predict location and timing of different stages of walleye pollock in GOA. 50 Marine Ecosystems

Figure 1. Distribution of early walleye pollock larvae in May 1987, a) model, and b) data, Distribution of late larval and early juvenile walleye pollock in June and July 1987. c) model and d) data. Distribution of late juvenile walleye pollock in August and September 1987 e) model and f) data

The scientists have also used these coupled models High interannual variability of potential nursery areas to perform a simulation experiment where eggs were was seen over the domain (Figure 2). The Semidi and released in a stratified random design over the entire Shumagin Islands regions were potential nursery areas domain of known pollock spawning regions and times to some extent in all years, but especially in 1978, 1982, within the GOA. These eggs were followed as they 1988 and 2001. Northeast and southeast of Kodiak transform to larvae and then juveniles. Their locations Island appeared to be an important potential nursery at the end of the simulation, in the fall of their 0-age area in 1978, 1992 and 2001. The BS is a recurrent year, were recorded along with their trajectories and potential nursery during all years with high densities details of their histories along these trajectories. A of surviving modelled juveniles. However, it appeared connectivity analysis between spawning areas and to be less important in 1988 and 1999, when densities nursery areas was then accomplished. there were lower compared to the GOA and the Aleutian Islands (AL).

Averaging over all years (Figure 3), the modelled nursery area pattern was characterized by a large region in the central and southern BS; with the east of Kodiak Island, and the Semidi to Shumagin Islands region as the main potential nursery areas in the GOA, and only one main potential nursery area in AL.

51 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Figure 2. a) Contour map of modeled juvenile density on DOY 215 showing potential nursery areas through the whole domain in year a) 1978, b) 1982, c) 1988, d) 1992, e) 1999, f) 2001.

52 Marine Ecosystems

Figure 3. Contour map of modeled juvenile density at the end of the simulation showing potential nursery areas through the whole domain averaged over all years of the simulation.

Striking results from this study were twofold: The Bering Sea was predicted to be a very important 1. The model correctly predicted the Semidi Island potential nursery area. Dougherty, Bailey and Mier to Shumagin Island area as the most recurrent (2007) found that larvae found in the Shumagin Islands potential nursery area. had hatch dates similar to larvae in Shelikof Strait, 2. The origin of the modelled juveniles found in this but no trace (within the GOA) of larvae spawned region could have been eggs spawned in Shelikof in the Shumagin Islands was found in hatch date Strait in April. data. This modelling result may have implications for management of pollock, as pollock in the GOA and the This is consistent with literature studies and confirms BS are presently managed as separate stocks. the idea of the Shelikof-Shumagin spawning-nursery area pair (Hinckley et al. 1991). There is some evidence Research Highlights in the literature that the area northeast of Kodiak Island Completion of a model-data comparison, with good and the Semidi Islands may play a role as potential results nursery areas, which agrees with the predictions of the • Completion of a draft manuscript, “Nursery areas model. However, part of the cohorts retained around of walleye pollock populations in Gulf of Alaska: Kodiak Island (Wilson, 2000), may be advected into the A life history modeling approach” by C. Parada, Alaskan Stream and lost from the population (Bailey et S. Hinckley, J. Horne, M. Mazur, is in internal al., 1999), or transported to other, smaller nursery areas review. such as the Semidi Islands (Mazur et al., 2007). Parasite • Completion of a model simulation and analysis studies have revealed that juvenile pollock found in of connectivity of pollock spawning and nursery bays east of Kodiak Island did not originate in Shelikof areas. Strait unless there are anomalous current patterns • Manuscript “Connectivity of walleye pollock (Bailey et al., 1999), implying that areas other than spawning and nursery areas in the Gulf of Alaska” Shelikof Strait do have potential as spawning areas. by Carolina Parada, Sarah Hinckley, and John Horne is in progress.

53 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

2. Transport and settlement patterns and connectivity Domains) was partitioned into eight “IBM sectors”, of spawning and nursery areas of snow crab and potential advection in the upper 50 m of the (Chionoecetes opilio) in the Bering Sea. water column was simulated for the period 1978- An individual-based model (IBM) for snow 2003. crab larvae, coupled to a hydrodynamic model (ROMS), was implemented to investigate patterns Potential retention (larval release and settlement in the of transport and potential settlement of snow same sector) was always highest in the Middle Domain crab and their relationship to temperature, and (i.e. areas 1, 3, 5, and 7), particularly during cold years the connectivity between larval sources and sinks (Parada et al., 2007b; Figure 4). The pattern of general in the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). The coupled connectivity (Figure 5) has several interesting elements: model was run for the period 1978-2003. Near i Potential retention was always highest in IBM bottom temperature (NBT) conditions from the sector 7 (Middle Domain to the east of the hydrodynamic model were compared to data Pribilof Islands). from summer surveys to validate the output of ii Advection had a general northward direction. the hydrodynamic model; good agreement was There was potential transport from the Outer to seen between model results and data. Interannual the Middle domain and from the Middle to the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) from Inner Domain south of Pribilof Islands. the hydrodynamic model was studied to identify iii Simulated larvae released in IBM sector 6, south anomalously warm and cold years. Current and east of the Pribilof Islands (where potential velocities obtained from the model and measured retention is minimal), ended up in IBM sectors from moorings were compared and showed similar 5 and 7 (west and north of the islands). patterns, and spatial variability in modeled currents was also studied. Paths for larval advection Research Highlights were investigated using ROMS outputs and an • Completed analysis of larval transport and individual-based model approach. The most retention of snow crab larvae and its relationship to important historical region for larval release (the temperature. central and southern shelf of the Middle and Outer • Completed spawning-nursery area connectivity analysis.

Completed draft of paper, “Connectivity and settlement patterns of snow crab larvae in the Eastern Bering Sea”, by Parada, C., B. Ernst, L. Orensanz, S. Hinckley, D. Armstrong, A. Hermann, presently in internal review.

Figure 4. Retention of larvae from each sector of release. (sectors indicated in Figure 5). Solid red circles: warm years; open circles: cold years; open red circles: Middle Domain sectors.

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Figure 5. Summary of connectivity patterns, where (left) sectors 0-7 (green) represent snow crab larval release areas. Areas 0-16 are used to assess connectivity of settlement areas with the release areas. Northward transport of particles in the Middle and Outer Domains and retention in area 7 is seen. Top right: Northward average transport is observed in the Middle and Outer Domains with a potential retention area south and east of the Pribilof Islands. Bottom right: sectors of Individual-Based Model larval release (colored areas).

55 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Investigations of Links between the Early Life History Dynamics of Fish Species and Climate/Ocean Conditions in the Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Bering Sea PI UW - Miriam Doyle, Nick Bond 2. Life history groups of fish species as proxies for population response to environmental change in the Other Personnel Gulf of Alaska, and other Large Marine Ecosystems UW - Mick Spillane, (LMEs) of the U.S. NOAA - Susan Picquelle, Kathryn Mier, Janet Duffy- The GOA ichthyoplankton time-series study (above) Anderson has established that the early life history patterns of fish species in the Gulf of Alaska are linked in Task II species-specific ways to their environment and that such diversity of life history strategies and environ- NOAA Primary Contact mental links represents varying degrees of resilience Jeff Napp, or vulnerability among species to environmen- NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center tal change. The Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC) in Seattle is the repository for 30+ years of NOAA Goal data on early life history characteristics of Northeast 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Pacific fish species, based on annual ichthyoplankton Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond collections since 1977. It is hypothesized that group- Description ing fish species according to comprehensive suites of life history traits will result in species groups that Varieties of projects are being carried out in display synchrony in recruitment variation, and conjunction with the NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science similarities in relationships between species abun- Center’s Recruitment Processes Group. Specifically, dance metrics and physical variables, reflecting a early life history aspects of recruitment processes common exposure and response to physical forcing. among Gulf of Alaska and Eastern Bering Sea Using numerical measures of life history traits (e.g. fish species are being investigated. Data are from fecundity, longevity, timing of spawning, egg and ongoing (since 1977) collections of ichthyoplankton larval size, larval duration etc.) principal component samples and associated oceanographic and climate analysis will be used to ordinate species into life his- measurements in both regions. The specific projects tory groups. are listed below.

Objectives The goal of this regional study is to utilize these data, in conjunction with available adult life history 1. Larval fish abundance and physical forcing in the information, and time-series of species metrics and Gulf of Alaska, 1981-2003. climate/ocean variables, to develop an ecologically This research documents interannual variation in robust framework for predicting fish population late spring abundance of numerically dominant trends in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). The research is larval fish species in the Gulf of Alaska, and also being developed for application to other U.S. explores links between larval abundance and Large Marine Ecosystems. A unique opportunity time-series of physical oceanographic and climate exists for the development of life history driven variables using generalized additive modeling. fish population response models among U.S. Large Links between the species and the physical Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), where ichthyoplankton, variables are interpreted from the perspective fish recruitment, climate and oceanographic studies of fish life history strategies and mechanisms have continued for decades. The goal of the multi- of physical forcing on early life history aspects ecosystem phase of the project is to develop and of recruitment processes in the Gulf of Alaska evaluate a protocol for the utilization of life history ecosystem. groups of fish species as proxies for population re- sponse to environmental change in U.S LMEs of the 56 Northeast Pacific and Northwest Atlantic. Marine Ecosystems

3. Early Life History of Pacific Sand Lance (Ammodytes ted to the NOAA program Fisheries and the Envi- hexapterus) in the Gulf of Alaska – Review Paper. ronment (FATE) in December 2007 to seek fund- Pacific sand lance is an important forage fish in the ing for this project as applied to the Gulf of Alaska Gulf of Alaska ecosystem and contributes signifi- ecosystem. Funding was not received through this cantly to the diet of many species of fish, birds and program. During spring of 2008, a multi-institution marine mammals. As a key forage species, it is im- proposal based on this life history framework idea portant to understand its biology and ecology and was developed in conjunction with scientists from to investigate the potential stability or vulnerability NOAA (AFSC and NWFSC), Oregon State Univer- of Pacific sand lance populations in the Gulf of sity, and the University of Oregon, and this proposal Alaska oceanographic environment. A manuscript was submitted in June 2008 for funding through the is in preparation that comprises a review of its new NOAA/NSF CAMEO (Comparative Analysis biology and especially its early life history ecology, of Marine Ecosystems Organization) initiative. This based on ichthyoplankton samples collected in the initial phase will focus on two ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska from 1972 through to the present. Northeast Pacific; the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), and the northern region of the California Current eco- 4. Early life history and larval dispersal patterns for system (NCC). Evaluation of the species groups as northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) and proxies for population response to environmental Alaska plaice (Pleuronectes quadrituberculatus) in change will be carried out by investigating relation- the eastern Bering Sea. ships between time-series of species metrics within Evidence from previous AFSC investigations sug- and among the life history groups, and time-series of gests that favorable recruitment of these species selected Northeast Pacific climate and ocean vari- may be linked to the direction of wind forcing ables using Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM). when larvae are in the water column and subject The suite of variables will be compiled to represent to advective transport by oceanographic currents. basin-scale variation in climate-ocean conditions in This project will utilize historical ichthyoplankton the northeast Pacific, as well as local-scale variation collections and oceanographic measurements in at the species habitat level in the GOA and NCC. It this region to document early life history character- is expected that the Life History Species Groups will istics and links to the ocean/climate environment have good potential as ecological and management for these species. Results will be used (by other re- guilds. Interest and support for this project has also searchers at AFSC and PMEL/JISAO) in the devel- been solicited from scientists at NOAA’s Northeast, opment of a Dispersal Model for Early Life History Southeast, and Southwest Fisheries Science Centers. Stages (DisMELS). DisMELS is a coupled biophys- If CAMEO funding is forthcoming, a workshop will ical model that incorporates individual behavior be held in July 2009 in conjunction with the annual and simulates egg and larval dispersal based on 3D conference of the Early Life History Section of the oceanographic salinity, temperature and current American Fisheries Society in Portland, Oregon. fields from the NEP ROMS model. Ultimately, this This LME Life Histories workshop will bring togeth- model will be used to develop recruitment forecasts er NOAA and academic scientists from institutions for flatfish stocks in the Bering Sea. that study Northeast Pacific and Northwest Atlantic ecosystems, for the purpose of evaluating data sets Accomplishments and research protocol associated with the expanded Project 1. phase of this project. This project is completed and a final draft of the manu- script is being reviewed by the AFSC director’s office Project 3. and publications office for submission to the journal Analysis of data and preparation of a manuscript Progress in Oceanography. continues.

Project 2. Project 4. A detailed research plan, including development of First draft of a manuscript relating to the early life data analysis methodology, has been prepared, and history of Alaska plaice in the eastern Bering Sea is documentation of species life history characteristics in review. is progressing. A proposal was prepared and submit-

57 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Developing recruitment forecasts for age-structured flatfish stock assessments in the eastern Bering Sea based on models of larval dispersal

PIs Accomplishments UW - Albert Hermann A large ensemble of DisMELS runs has been carried NMFS - William Stockhausen, Thomas Wilderbuer, out by Stockhausen with ROMS output, demonstrating Janet Duffy-Anderson a strong interannual variability of rock sole life histo- ries. These time series are being compared with recruit- Other Personnel ment data. UW - Dylan Righi In the past year Hermann and Righi have: Task III 1. Examined the correspondence between the modeled and observed temperature in the Bering NOAA Primary Contact Sea. Significant correlations were established Kenric Osgood between: i) the depth-average temperature at FATE Program Manager the M2 mooring site (lat=56.877, long=164.057, NMFS, Office of Science & Technology bottom depth = 74m) and its model equivalent; NOAA Goal ii) observed bottom temperatures (from multiyear ground fish surveys) and their model equivalent; 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal iii) individual current meter time series and their & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based model equivalent. (see attached Figures 1 and 2) Management 2. Developed MATLAB scripts for interpolation of Description Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) global ocean model data to the NEP model grid. These It has been suggested that favorable recruitment in scripts are being used by colleagues to generate the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) of northern rock sole initial and boundary conditions for a new run of (Lepidopsetta polyxystra, a winter-spawning flatfish) the NEP model, which includes both tidal and ice may be linked to the direction of wind forcing during dynamics (the presently used run includes ice, but the spring, when larvae are in the water column and not tides). subject to advective transport by oceanographic 3. Performed EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) currents. This project examines the interannual analysis for groups of current meters, to gauge the variation of that advective transport, and its link to model’s ability to capture observed spatial/temporal recruitment, using numerical models. modes of variability. Objectives This project is intended to develop a recruitment forecast for northern rock sole by coupling an individual based model (DisMELS) to a state of the art ocean circulation model (NEP-ROMS). DisMELS is a newly developed coupled biophysical model that incorporates individual behavior and simulates egg and larval dispersal based on 3D oceanographic salinity, temperature and current fields from the NEP-ROMS model.

58 Marine Ecosystems

Figure 1. Comparison of measured (x-axis) vs. modeled (y-axis) bottom temperature (deg C) in the Bering Sea. Data are from multiyear groundfish surveys (1980s – present).Red line is regression curve; y=x line shown in blue.

Figure 2. Comparison of depth-averaged temperatures (deg C) at a mid-shelf mooring site in the Bering Sea. Data are shown in black; model result is in red.

59 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Fisheries Acoustic Research

PI Objectives UW - John Horne 1. To complete the study on acoustic ontogeny of teleost fish. Task III 2. To complete the study on effects of pressure on juvenile walleye pollock. NOAA Primary Contact 3. To complete the characterization of walleye Russ Nelson pollock distributions and examine distribution Alaska Fisheries Science Center patterns relative to environmental covariates. 4. To increase student involvement and training in NOAA Goal fisheries acoustic research. 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based Accomplishments Management 1. As an extension of the original project, general- ized additive mixed model (GAMM) regressions Description examined factors influencing target strengths of This project supports an Associate Research Faculty Donaldson trout (rainbow-steelhead hybrid). position at the University of Washington, School GAMMs using fish lengths, swimbladder angles, of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences (SAFS). Activities and lateral elongation ratios of fish bodies were include research, supervision of graduate students, better predictors of echo intensities than fish and service. Research activities examine acoustic length alone. A revised manuscript was submitted reflectivity properties of north Pacific and Bering Sea to and accepted by the Journal of Fish Biology. fish species, develop visualization tools to increase the understanding of using sound to examine fish popula- 2. Analytic techniques to characterize changes in tions, and investigate equipment and methods used three-dimensional shapes were developed and to acoustically enumerate, size, and map fish distribu- applied to swimbladders of juvenile walleye tions. Supervision of graduate students including those pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) that had been employed by RACE and REFM divisions at the Alaska radiographed while undergoing systematic pres- Fisheries Science Center (AFSC). Service activities sure changes in a chamber. Directional elliptical include fostering collaboration between the SAFS and eccentricity (relative compression in dorsal and the AFSC, organizing and administering the SAFS- lateral planes) was formulated to describe swim- AFSC summer internship program, acoustic training of bladder shapes and shape changes. As pressure students and government scientists, and participation increased, dorsal swimbladder surface areas in academic committees at the School of Aquatic and decreased at a constant rate. Swimbladder volume Fishery Sciences. reductions were similar among individuals but less than that predicted by Boyle’s law. Compression was greatest in the dorsal-ventral plane and asym- metric anterior to posterior. Experimental results were written up and presented at the ICES Sym- posium on the Ecosystem Approach with Fisher- ies Acoustics and Complementary Technologies (SEAFACTS) in Bergen, Norway. The conference proceedings paper will be submitted to the ICES Journal of Marine Science as a paper in the special issue Symposium volume.

60 Marine Ecosystems

3. The characterization of walleye pollock distribu- 4. This ongoing objective provides student education tion patterns in the eastern Bering Sea was com- and training in fisheries and fisheries acoustics pleted. Factor analysis indicated that the metric through active participation in research projects, set could be reduced to four factors: spatial occu- abundance estimate surveys, and summer pancy, aggregation, packing density, and vertical internships. One Master’s program is near distribution. Cluster analysis was used to develop a completion and another student has started a 12-category classification typology for distribution research project in association with the Alaska patterns. Visual inspection revealed that spatial Fisheries Science Center (AFSC). One Ph.D. patterns of segments assigned to each type were program is also nearing completion with two other consistent, but that there was considerable overlap students conducting research for their projects. among types. A manuscript has been published by Three undergraduate students participated in the the ICES Journal of Marine Science. UW- AFSC summer intern program with two of those students completing senior capstone A logical next step was to examine if walleye pol- projects. Two Post Doctoral research associates lock distribution patterns are correlated with envi- are investigating distributions and dynamics of fish ronmental factors. Generalized Additive Models species associated with mid-Atlantic Ridge, Hood (GAMs) were used quantify the relationship be- Canal, and in the Bering and Beaufort Seas. tween the four pattern metrics identified above and environmental covariates: bottom and surface tem- perature, thermocline depth, surface salinity, bot- tom depth, chlorophyll-a, prey abundance and time of day. Water temperature, bottom depth and prey abundance were good predictors of biomass and spatial patterns, suggesting that walleye pollock selects habitats with high prey availability. Time of day was a good predictor of vertical distribution. In most models, spatial location explained a large proportion of the variability indicating that walleye pollock biomass and spatial patterns are spatially auto correlated. A manuscript has been completed and will be submitted to Fisheries Oceanography.

61 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Beaufort Sea Pelagic Fish Acoustic Survey

PI Description UW - John Horne The overall goal of thisstudy is to quantify the distribution and abundance of fish and associated Other Personnel habitats in a subset of the Beaufort Sea OCS UW - Sandra Parker-Stetter, David Barbee Planning Area. The group’s component of this project is to participate in the planning, execution, Task III and analysis of data collected during the acoustic and midwater trawl components of the survey. NOAA Primary Contact Russ Nelson Objectives Alaska Fisheries Science Center To conduct an acoustic-midwater trawl survey in the Beaufort Sea OCS Planning Area. NOAA Goal

1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal Accomplishments & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based Cruise planning has been completed through monthly Management teleconferences among PI’s, two planning meetings, and fish identification and safety training. The cruise is scheduled for July 29 until August 31, 2008.

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Bowhead Whale Feeding in the Western Beaufort Sea: Passive Acoustic Survey Component

PI The proposed study was to purchase and deploy six (6) UW - Kate Stafford long-term acoustic recorders in the study area. These recorders have 100 GB hard drives and are capable Other Personnel of 3 months continuous recording or a year of sub- NOAA – David Mellinger, Sue Moore sampled recording across 0.1 Hz – 16 kHz, which encompasses the bandwidth of bowhead calls, as well Task III as those of gray whales, belugas, and seals. Acoustically sampling the western Beaufort for the duration of the NOAA Primary Contact bowhead feeding study will provide a new dimension National Marine Mammal Laboratory for documenting the seasonal occurrence of bowheads Alaska Fisheries Science Center in the study area. Temporal records of whale calls NOAA Goal at the respective recorders may be correlated to environmental changes, including climate and 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal anthropogenic use of the area. & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based Management Objectives Description Primary objectives 1. Assess the seasonal occurrence of bowhead calls in As part of a larger, Minerals Management Funded the study area during the first field season (mid- Study on the feeding behavior of bowhead whales in August to mid-October in 2007) through daily the vicinity of Barrow, Alaska, an acoustic recording counts of calls/hour. component was incorporated with other sampling 2. Assess the annual occurrence of bowhead whale regimes undertaken by the National Marine Mammal calls in the study season year-round starting in Laboratory, the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and August 2008. the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. 3 .Correlate bowhead occurrence with results from oceanographic and prey sampling (e.g., Passive acoustic detection and tracking is a proven temperature, salinity, florescence, and annual ice tool for assessment of large whales in Alaskan seas cover) to establish predictive variables for bowhead (Moore et al. 2006). This may be the best method to occurrence. effectively monitor seasonal occurrence over large spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, acoustic detection has proven a key addition to the census of 1. Track individual calling whales through the bowhead whales during their spring migration past hydrophone array (2008-onward). Barrow (Clark and Ellison 2000) and in relation to oil 2. Determine if changes in ice/climate is enabling a and gas development activities offshore Prudhoe Bay northward shift of Bering Sea cetacean species such (Greene et al. 2004). More recently, gray whale calls as fin, humpback, and North Pacific right whales. have been detected year-round near Barrow on long- 3. Compare current bowhead whale (and other term recorders deployed in collaboration with the NSF/ marine mammal) occurrence with data collected Shelf-Basin Interaction Study (Stafford et al. in press); during bowhead spring migrations between this was the first evidence of gray whale occurrence 1980 and 2001 to determine whether changes in in winter near Barrow. An array of moored passive acoustic receivers east and west of the study area migration timing or residence times have occurred. will be able to detect bowhead calls as the whales enter and use the waters of the western Beaufort Sea. Year-round deployment will provide previously unattainable assessment of the seasonal occurrence of bowheads in the study area. 63 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Accomplishments frame will be recovered as soon as ice cover recedes Six hydrophone packages were purchased from Multi- enough in 2008. It is, however, possible that this electronique for deployment in the Beaufort Sea. mooring will not be recovered due to possible ice All of the instruments had 100 GB hard drives. Two damage. of the instruments were deployed in shallow water on mooring frames in early August while the other Preliminary results from Cape Halkett mooring four were deployed on the Annika Marie’s transit Just over one month of data were recorded on the from Deadhorse to Barrow AK (Figure 1). The two hydrophone at M6 (8/12/07-9/14/07). These data were shallow water moorings were programmed to record scanned for bowhead whale calls but no sounds that continuously at a sample rate of 8192 Hz while the could be definitively attributed to bowheads were deep-water instruments were on a recording schedule found. Other identifiable sounds recorded included of 10 min on/20 min off in order to record for a year’s bearded seals (Figure 2) and wave noise. duration (Table 1). In addition to recording acoustic data, the hydrophones The Cape Halkett mooring (M6) was recovered on also record the water temperature at the time each file 11 September 2007. The Barrow mooring (M1) was is written. The graph (Figure 3) shows the mean daily due to be recovered after whaling season, or roughly water temperature during the deployment at Cape mid-October. Unfortunately, ice set in over the Barrow Halkett. mooring and it could not be recovered this year. The team hopes that it and the other instruments on the

Figure 1. Bowhead whale feeding study hydrophone deployment locations

Table 1. Information for hydrophones deployed for the bowhead whale feeding study

Hydrophone Date Sampling Date Latitude Longitude Depth (m) ID deployed plan recovered M-1 8/17/07 70.98 -152.25 15.1 continuous M-2 8/17/07 71.40 -152.14 108 10/30 min M-3 8/17/07 71.69 -153.17 104 10/30 min M-4 8/17/07 71.75 -154.49 100 10/30 min M-5 8/17/07 71.56 -155.59 110 10/30 min M-6 8/16/07 71.45 -156.13 16 continuous 9/11/07

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Figure 2. Example of bearded seal song recorded at Cape Halkett on 10 September 2007.

Figure 3. Mean daily water temperature.

65 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Marine Biological Interactions in the North Pacific – Fish Interactions

PI • The development and publication of reports on UW - Bruce Miller environmental conditions in Alaskan waters in- cluding the Ecosystem Considerations Chapter, Other Personnel which is part of the North Pacific Fishery Man- UW - J. Boldt, K. Dodd, R. Hibpshman, A. Whitehouse agement Council (NPFMC) Stock Assessment NOAA - K. Aydin Fishery Evaluation (SAFE) Report. This work included acquiring and maintaining ecosystem Task III indicators from about 100 collaborators in the NOAA Primary Contact Ecosystem Considerations Section of the SAFE. These indicators are updated annually and the NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Ecosystem Considerations section of the SAFE Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division is made available to stock assessment scientists, NOAA Goal plan team members, the Scientific and Statisti- cal Committee (SSC), Advisory Panel (AP), and 1. Protect, Restore and Manage the Use of Coastal NPFMC in the fall of each year. The Ecosystem and Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based Considerations section is utilized to advance the Management scientists understanding of marine ecosystem Description dynamics and deliver ecological, oceanographic, This research project focuses on improving ecosystem and climatic indices to stock assessment scien- based fishery management through increased tists and managers. The Ecosystem Consider- understanding of predator/prey relationships, improved ations section includes an ecosystem assessment, predator/prey models, and development of ecosystem updated status and trend indices, and ecosys- indicators. tem-based management indices and informa- tion. Annual updates of historical trend and Objectives present status of over 80 indicators ranging from 1. Investigations of the Feeding Ecology of North climate, oceanographic, production, species, Pacific Fishes. community, to ecosystem-level indicators as 2. Assistance collecting stomach, plankton or benthic well as ecosystem-based management indicators samples in the field. are performed. A website was developed that 3. Integration of data into ecosystem considerations provides easy access to the chapter contributions chapter. as well as to data time series summarized in the chapter by stock assessment scientists, manage- Accomplishments ment and the public (http://access.afsc.noaa.gov/ 1. Investigations of the Feeding Ecology of North reem/ecoweb/index.cfm). This website is also Pacific Fishes. A total of 13,383 ground fish updated annually. stomachs were analyzed in the laboratory. 2. Assistance collecting stomach, plankton or benthic • Development of the Ecosystem Assessment samples in the field. Collection and shipboard (a section of the Ecosystem Considerations analysis of groundfish stomachs during the time report). This work involved integrating infor- period totaled 6,099 samples. mation regarding ecosystem status and trends 3. Accomplishments for data integrations into and the use of models to predict possible future ecosystem considerations in 2007-2008 ecosystem states using an indicator approach to included: assemble the BSAI and GOA ecosystem assess- ment. The primary intent of this assessment is to summarize and synthesize historical climate and fishing effects on the shelf and slope regions of

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the eastern Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and Gulf series. These indices measure overall system of Alaska from an ecosystem perspective and to state and provide information on biomass, di- provide an assessment of the possible future ef- versity, size structure, trophic level and produc- fects of climate and fishing on ecosystem struc- tion (Fulton et al. 2005). The size spectrum is ture and function. Information must be synthe- created by plotting abundance against the body sized for managers to provide a coherent view of size of fish or invertebrates in the community. ecosystem effects in order to clearly recommend Factors, such as fishing, may change the abun- any precautionary thresholds required to protect dance of organisms of different size classes, ecosystem integrity. To this end, the assessment particularly the amount of larger animals, af- summarizes recent trends by distinct ecosystem fecting the slope of the descending limb of the properties that require consideration: predator- size spectrum. For example, in an exploited fish prey relationships, diversity, and energy flow assemblage, larger fish generally suffer higher and balance. The eventual goal of synthesis is fishing mortality than smaller individuals; this to provide succinct indices of current ecosystem may be one factor causing the size distribution conditions reflecting ecosystem properties. In to become skewed toward the smaller end of the order to perform this synthesis, a blend of data spectrum (Zwanenburg 2000), and leading to a analysis and modeling will be employed to place decrease in the slope of the size relationship over measures of current ecosystem states in the con- time with increasing fishing pressure. Simi- text of history and past and future climate. larly, k-dominance curves, which measure the combined dominance of the k most dominant • Providing an index of ground fish stock survival species (Lambshead et al. 1983) in disturbed (recruits per spawning biomass anomalies) communities, will differ from those in unper- to detect decadal- or regime-scale changes in turbed communities (Rice 2000, Bianchi et al. stock productivity. These analyses are updated 2000). Existing NMFS bottom trawl survey data annually and have been presented to NPFMC was used to create these two indices for the BS plan team members and utilized in reports and ecosystem. This information was integrated into presentations of climate effects on fisheries. the Ecosystem Considerations report to provide Current analyses include utilizing the recently a measure of ecosystem state and any potential developed sequential t-test analysis of regime effects of fishing. shifts (STARS; Rodionov 2005, Rodionov and Overland 2005) to detect regime shifts in indices • Collaboration with stock assessment scientists of ground fish recruitment and survival. These on techniques for building ecosystem-based analyses were incorporated into a manuscript stock assessments. entitled: “Patterns of covariation in productiv- • Development of methods for utilizing ecological ity among Northeast Pacific fish stocks” in 2006 indices in the formation of management advice. which was submitted for review (Mueter et al. • Facilitating comparative studies across regions 2007). by serving as a point of contact for the Alaska Region within the Fisheries and the Environ- • Completion of a manuscript titled: “An inves- ment program. tigation of fishing and climate effects on the • Collaboration on research to begin a research community size spectra of eastern Bering Sea plan for an ecosystem-based fisheries assessment fish”. This work included developing, validat- for the Eastern Bering Sea. ing, and maintaining indices of size diversity in • Collaboration with the Aleutian Islands Fish- the BS, AI, and GOA. Two size-based indica- ery Ecosystem Plan team in acquiring Aleutian tors that measure fishing induced changes at a Islands-specific indices and incorporating them system-wide level are: community size spec- into the Ecosystem Considerations report. trum and k-dominance curves. They have been • Provision of information summaries for the derived for several systems (Greenstreet and Draft Biological Opinion on the Ground fish Hall 1996, Rice and Gislason 1996, Duplisea et FMPs and State Parallel Fisheries. al. 1997, Greenstreet et al. 1999, Bianchi et al. 2000, Zwanenburg 2000) using survey data time

67 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Investigations of the Trophic Pathways & Spatial Variations of Mercury Concentrations in Yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) & Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus Obesus) in the Central N. Pacific

PI This research will provide a description and UW - Tim Essington understanding of the spatial variation of Hg and Se in yellowfin and bigeye tunas and their ecosystems. Other Personnel This study will also work towards improving the UW - Bridget Ferriss understanding of the transfer of Hg through the central north Pacific marine ecosystem. The work will Task III primarily focus on the trophic pathways and spatial variations of Hg concentrations in yellowfin and bigeye NOAA Primary Contact tuna. These results will be used to help inform state, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center national and international management efforts on the limitation of mercury in the human diet. NOAA Goal

1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal Objectives & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based 1. Describe the spatial variation in mercury levels (as Management manifested in mercury concentration vs. body size) Description in bigeye and yellowfin tuna in the central north Pacific. The research proposed seeks to better understand the 2. Describe the trophic pathways that lead to mercury processes that give rise to elevated Hg levels in tunas, bioaccumulation in bigeye and yellowfin tuna while also describing how those processes vary spa- through direct sampling of tuna prey and coupled tially. This problem is approached by recognizing that Hg-bioenergetics modeling. nearly all Hg in tunas is derived from their food, and 3 Identify spatial variation in trophic pathways, and that variation in Hg levels will be dictated primarily link these to spatial differences in yellowfin and by differences in feeding habits. Thus, spatial patterns bigeye mercury levels. in tuna Hg levels should be tightly linked to regional 4. Compare and contrast trophic pathways of differences in food web structure. With an increased yellowfin tuna and bigeye tuna in regions where understanding of how and why Hg concentrations vary they co-occur. in the food web, it may be possible to focus on manage- 5. Develop a mass-balanced model of Hg flows within ment actions that aim to promote the marketing of tuna the entire central Pacific food web to identify the with reduced Hg levels, rather than relying on warnings main pathways by which Hg is incorporated into and regulations on fish consumption. bigeye and yellowfin tuna.

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Accomplishments Objective 2. A coupled mercury-bioenergetics model This is the second year of the originally proposed has been created for yellowfin tuna. It will now be 3-year project (with the above objectives). extended to other tuna species and incorporate the analysis results from the tissue samples from objectives Objective 1, 3, and 4. Tissue samples have been 1, 3 and 4. obtained for tuna prey and tuna from the central north Pacific, western and eastern equatorial Objective 5. The mass-balanced model of mercury flow Pacific. Sources of these samples include a NOAA within the central Pacific food web has not yet been oceanography cruise, to Cross Seamount near Hawaii, created. the Hawaii-based longline fishery, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, and the University of Other accomplishments: Hawaii. Approximately half of these samples have 1. Presentation at the 59th International Tuna been analyzed for total mercury, methylmercury Conference Scholarship (May 19-22, 2008) and selenium. The analysis is moving slowly as new 2. 59th International Tuna Conference Scholarship methods are being developed to be used on some of the awarded to Bridget Ferriss smaller and different prey species, some of which have not been measured in this way before. Once all the results are obtained, the team will be able to conduct statistical analysis to determine spatial variation in concentrations within and between these species.

F/V Sea Pearl – Hawaii-based longline fishing vessel.

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US-GLOBEC NEP III-b CGOA: Modeling the Effects of Spatial-Temporal Environmental Variability on Stage-Specific Growth and Survival of Pink Salmon in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska PI UW - David Beauchamp the magnitude of subsequent size-selective mortality. This work will form the basis for linking growth Other Personnel performance and survival of a major planktivorous fish UW - Kate Myers, Mike Mazur, Jan Armstrong, Robert to the physical and lower trophic processes addressed Walker by the network of GLOBEC-NEP investigators. NOAA - Jamal Moss, Peggy Sullivan, Ed Cokelet Broader Impacts: Results will be published in peer- Task III reviewed journals, at conferences, SI meetings, a workshop in the 3rd year, and study exercises for a NOAA Primary Contact graduate-level energetic modeling class. Preseason Beth Turner, GLOBEC forecasts of marine survival enable more effective- economical salmon harvest and management, NOAA Goal benefiting local fishery communities and industry. This 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal project promotes grad/postdoc training and broader & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based participation by women and minorities in science. Management Preseason forecasts of marine survival enable more effective-economical salmon harvest and management, Description benefiting local fisheries-dependent communities, the Inter-annual differences in stage-specific survival and fisheries industry, and regional economy of northern growth of pink salmon will be examined in relation GOA and the Pacific Northwest. to monthly differences in spatial distribution and spatial-temporal patterns in environmental conditions, Objectives food availability, diet, size, and growth. Physical and 1. Contribute to development of a comprehensive biological data will be combined in bioenergetics database of pink salmon distribution, size, growth, models to estimate consumption and growth efficiency diet, and associated biophysical condition data. of juvenile pink salmon among regions, months 2. Estimate useable measures of density and biomass and years, and bioenergetic growth potential will of exploitable zooplankton taxa available to salmon. be mapped among sampling sites, water masses and 3. Use scale growth patterns to estimate individual regions through time to mechanistically examine the growth trajectories and determine the inter-annual growth and survival consequences of different spatial- variability in the magnitude of stage-specific, temporal distribution patterns and how inter-annual size-selective mortality for pink salmon from PWS differences in the biophysical environment contribute hatcheries, and develop a size-based preseason to differences in survival and production of pink forecast of marine survival. salmon in CGOA. 4. Determine the interannual and monthly variation in diet composition of pink salmon among PWS Intellectual merit. This work will advance from and the different water masses in CGOA during correlative to more mechanistic understanding of how July-October. physical and biological variability among different 5. Use bioenergetics models to estimate monthly marine water masses in CGOA affect juvenile pink consumption and growth efficiency of the major salmon growth (importance and interaction of cohorts of pink salmon during May-September, temperature, prey availability, and prey quality) and using scale-based growth trajectories.

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6. Map inter-annual, monthly, and spatial variability groups. Overall, higher marine survival was positively in instantaneous growth potential for juvenile correlated with wider spatial dispersal across the pink salmon at each sampling site in PWS and coastal Gulf of Alaska by mid-August, coincident with CGOA during July-August OCC and July-Sept/Oct higher feeding, growth, and greater reliance on non- Process and LTOP cruises (2001-2004). crustacean zooplankton (pteropods and larvaceans). 7. Connect summer growth and distribution to older Pink salmon that successfully returned as adults fed at winter-summer life stages (distribution, size). 85-100% of their theoretical physiological maximum feeding rate as juveniles during their first summer at Accomplishments sea, whereas non-survivors typically fed at 60-85% of Objective 1. A comprehensive database for pink salmon their maximum rate. Thermal conditions in the epi- catch, distribution, diet, size, marks, and associated pelagic zone did not directly affect metabolic efficiency environmental conditions has been constructed from or growth of salmon; rather, the scientists hypothesize the NOAA-Auke Bay Ocean Carrying Capacity cruises that the physical environment enables a particular and the UAF-UW GLOBEC LTOP and Process cruises ecosystem structure to develop (i.e., crustacean- versus conducted during summer-fall 2001-2004. noncrustacean-dominated zooplankton communities) which in turn influences feeding rate, growth, and Objective 2. Zooplankton surface samples with a survival of salmon. Tucker/NIO trawl severely underestimated the availability of edible zooplankton for juvenile pink In addition to the publications listed in Appendix 11, salmon. Average densities of key zooplankton prey a paper has been accepted, with revision, (Cross et were 5-30 times greater in vertical bongo net tows al.) examining the interannual differences in growth over 0-10m or 0-20m depth intervals than in the 0-1m and survival by juvenile pink salmon, and a second surface trawls; however, no correlation existed between manuscript on interannual patterns in diet composition taxa-specific densities in calibration tows using vertical by pink salmon among water masses is undergoing bongo tows paired with surface Tucker/NIO trawl internal review. samples from 2003. Interdisciplinary meetings with the GLOBEC zooplankton synthesis group (Dagg, Strom, Objective 6. Initial papers on spatially-explicit Napp, Hopcroft, Coyle) have been attended annually to modeling of growth potential (Moss et al. 2007) and enhance synergy between groups. the underlying functional response by salmon feeding on zooplankton (Moss and Beauchamp 2007) have Objective 3. The group has quantitatively linked been published. Further development of this approach feeding, growth, prey quality, and dispersal of juvenile will continue through the following year, and another pink salmon to inter-annual variation in stage-specific, manuscript is in preparation that links empirical prey size-selective marine mortality. By back-calculating fields and thermal regime to spatially-explicit growth size at specific life stages, they determined that potential (Mazur and Beauchamp). significant size-selective mortality occurred after the first summer of growth. Feeding and growth Objective 7. Scales have been measured for archived conditions during August defined the critical period for samples of sub-adult and adult pink salmon from feeding and growth when the growth rate of juveniles the same region, and preliminary analyses have been that survived to adulthood increased and diverged conducted. from other juveniles from the same hatchery release

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Climate, Fisheries, and Ecosystems: Data Quality, Management and Dissemination

PI Objectives UW - Kimberly Bahl, Nicholas Bond 1. Apply and improve quality control procedures, database management and systems analysis JISAO Themes and design for the Ecosystems and Fisheries Marine Ecosystems Oceanography Coordinated Investigations program Climate (EcoFOCI). 2. Improve the delivery of AFSC science information Task III products from the Resource Assessment and Conservation Engineering (RACE) Division via the NOAA Primary Contact World Wide Web (WWW). Jeff Napp Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Resource Assessment Accomplishments and Conservation Engineering Division, Recruitment The researchers made great progress in maintaining and Processes Program improving the data quality and data delivery of NOAA’s EcoFOCI program. During the past year, Ms. Bahl NOAA Goals helped to create new protocols to improve access to the 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal team’s hydrographic data. She made important contribu- & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based tions (as a team member) to recommendations to bring a Management new database on line. Kimberly took the lead to establish 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to new procedures for improved archival of data. Ms. Bahl’s Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond excellence in web design facilitated the Center’s efforts to improve the public’s visual comprehension of com- The work Ms. Bahl accomplished is unique in that it is plex scientific concepts presented on the RACE website supported by both the NOAA Ecosystems and Climate (http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/RACE/default.php). Her ac- Goal Teams. complishments enabled the scientists to contribute tangi- ble products to NOAA’s vision of an informed society that Description uses a comprehensive understanding of the role of the The broad goal is to investigate links between climate and oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean (Gulf of Alaska to make the best social and economic decisions. Last, but and eastern Bering Sea) for the purpose of elucidating not least, Ms. Bahl continued to contribute to the success the potential effects of climate change on the dynamics of the North Pacific Ecosystem MetaDatabase, working of fish populations. This is accomplished through quality with project members to add metadata from China into control procedures, database management and systems the federation of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science analysis and design for the Ecosystems and Fisheries Organization) member countries that participate. This is Oceanography Coordinated Investigations program a huge accomplishment and greatly improves an already (EcoFOCI). This support is critical for the timely publica- valuable tool for scientists from all over the globe (http:// tion of information regarding climate-induced interannual www.pices.int/projects/npem/default.aspx). variability and quasi-decadal trends in marine fish larvae and zooplankton from these regions. The project is also Kimberly Bahl was awarded the NOAA Team Member responsible for improving the delivery of AFSC science of the Month in January 2008. This award recognizes information products from the Resource Assessment one non-Federal employee each month that has made and Conservation Engineering Division via the World significant contributions to NOAA programs, and has Wide Web (WWW). The improvements are necessary to demonstrated exceptional and sustained effort toward maintain and improve the team’s ability to communicate accomplishment of NOAA’s mission. This award gives with other scientists and stakeholders on their research tribute to a NOAA partner, stakeholder, or contractor in the areas of fisheries acoustics, fisheries assessment, who has demonstrated excellence in serving NOAA. It fish biology, fish behavior, shellfish biology, conservation is open to all Line Offices within NOAA and is highly engineering, and pathobiology. competitive. 72 Marine Ecosystems

West Coast Groundfish Stock Assessment

PI Statistical Committee SSC) in addition to publishing UW - Andre Punt these results in peer-reviewed scientific publications. 4. Build expertise among scientists, particularly Task III those working on west coast groundfish issues, in the application of state of the art methods NOAA Primary Contact for conducting management-related research Kathleen Jewett for west coast groundfish. Organize a series of Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC) regular workshops on west coast groundfish (data collection, data analysis, and stock assessment) to NOAA Goal take place during the academic year from September 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal to June, with participation by UW faculty and & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based students, and Alaska Fisheries Science Center Management (AFSC) and NWFSC staff. These workshops will provide an intensive forum for sharing of ideas, Description methods and results. This project did not start during 2007-08. As a result, 5 Provide support, training and mentoring for no research was conducted on this project during the graduate students who have the potential to become reporting period. researchers in the field of quantitative fisheries

Objectives science. This will support the research and increase national expertise in fisheries stock assessment 1. Conduct research on the population dynamics of techniques. The Principal Investigator will west coast groundfish. Research topics will focus contribute to this objective by mentoring graduate on methods for integrating biological, climatic, students who are working on topics related to habitat and ecosystem factors that affect groundfish quantitative fisheries science. into assessment models that will provide the scientific basis for setting annual harvest guidelines Accomplishments and designing rebuilding strategies. This project did not start during 2007-08 because the PI 2. Develop quantitative methods for the analysis and the student who will be funded under the project of population dynamics of groundfish species. were assigned to completing an early project related Collaborate with NMFS scientists who are to research on the population dynamics of west coast conducting quantitative stock assessments of west groundfish. As a result, no accomplishments occurred coast groundfish species to identify key research during the reporting period. areas and on the application of methods and models. Modify the priorities for objectives 1 and Work on this project will commence in September 2008. 2 on a regular basis (at least twice annually) in Mr. Tommy Garrison, (MS student in UW Quantitative consultation with NMFS scientists to ensure that Ecology and Resource Management (QERM), will the results of the research are relevant to current examine the benefits of no-take Marine Protected Areas stock assessment and fisheries management needs. (MPAs) on the ability to improve the accuracy and Through regular workshops and other meetings, precision of stock assessments, Mr. Motoki Wu (UW collaborate with NMFS scientists on appropriate QERM MS student) will explore alternative methods use of assessment models and modify existing for developing prior distributions for the steepness models to improve the assessments. of the stock-recruitment relationship, and Ms. Dawn 3. Present the results of the research at regional and Dougherty (UW QERM MS student) will continue to national meetings, Stock Assessment Team (STAT) compare the advantages and disadvantages of different and Stock Assessment Review (STAR) meetings, as spatial stratifications when conducting stock assessments well as to relevant advisory entities for the Pacific and setting harvest guidelines. Fishery Management Council (e.g. the Groundfish Management Team GMT, and the Scientific and

73 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Graduate Research Assistantships in Marine Ecosystems Studies

PI Objectives NOAA - Kathleen Jewett 1. Research on population-level effects of sublethal contaminant exposure in killer whales. Task II 2. Research on Southern Resident killer whale NOAA Primary Contact population growth. 3. Socio-economic research of natural resource- Kathleen Jewett, Dr. Mike Ford, Dr. Karma Norman dependent communities, such as community Northwest Fisheries Science Center profiles, social impact analyses and/or assessments,

NOAA Goal for west coast fisheries, and applied social science 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal research in fishery and/or environmental resource & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based management.

Management Accomplishment

Description These projects were not active during this award period, Graduate students from the University of Washington and have been delayed until the upcoming award will collaborate with NOAA scientists from the period. These research activities will begin during the Northwest Fisheries Science on marine ecosystems Fall Academic Quarter of 2008, in collaboration with research projects. These collaborative studies offer NOAA scientists. opportunities for graduate students to work with NOAA scientist to learn research methods, explore scientific careers in marine ecosystems studies and/ or scientific research or resource management, and possibly contribute to the development of future research topics.

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Management Strategy Evaluations as a Tool to Estimate Climate Impacts on Fisheries.

PI Objectives UW – Nick Bond Extend the MSE approach in one of two ways: NOAA – Jeff Napp Build upon an existing piece of research to address climate forcing and multi-species interactions in JISAO Themes the Gulf of Alaska. This might include interactions Marine Ecosystems between walleye pollock, Pacific halibut, Pacific cod, Climate arrowtooth flounder, and Steller sea lions,

Task II or NOAA Primary Contact Develop a general MSE framework that can be applied Jeff Napp to other fisheries managed by North Pacific Fisheries NOAA, – Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Management Council (NPFMC) in the Gulf of Alaska NOAA Goal or eastern Bering Sea, or in other regions by other regional fishery management bodies. 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond The decision of which specific topic is chosen Description will be made after a North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) workshop in July 2007. A goal of NOAA’s North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP) program is Accomplishments to develop tools to assist the North Pacific Fishery This project was not active during the award period Management Council to apply an ecosystem approach and has been delayed until the 2008/2009 award period. to the management of living marine resources. The PIs anticipate that the activities will begin Winter NPCREP’s focus is on the addition of climate and Academic Quarter 2009, in collaboration with addition- climate variability to the ecosystem approach. The al NOAA scientists and a new UW Faculty member. Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) approach is a powerful, robust, and general methodology for supporting management decision-making. This approach is presently being applied in the North Pacific to evaluate how the current management system for the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) walleye pollock fishery, including both the stock assessment and the harvest policy, performs under changing ecological and climatic conditions. This project seeks to extend that work.

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76 Environmental Chemistry

Environmental Chemistry

77 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Chlorofluorocarbon Tracer Program

PIs In recent years, the growth rates of CFCs in the UW - Rolf Sonnerup atmosphere have slowed, increasing uncertainties NOAA - John Bullister in water ‘ages’ calculated from CFC concentrations. The scientists are working on methods for utilizing Other Personnel other tracers (including sulfur hexafluoride-SF6) to UW - Frederick Menzia supplement the CFCs in ocean studies. NOAA - David Wisegarver Objectives Task II 1. To monitor the uptake of anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and sulfur NOAA Primary Contact hexafluoride (SF6) into the ocean on decadal Mete Uz, Global Carbon Cycle timescales and to use this information to estimate Joel Levy, Office of Climate Observation the rates and pathways of ocean ventilation processes, and long-term changes in these rates. NOAA Goal 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to 2. To use observed tracer fields to help evaluate Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond global ocean model simulations and to estimate the oceanic uptake of other tracer gases, including Description carbon dioxide. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) along with other anthropogenic tracers have proven to be useful in the 3. To use discrepancies among observable transient study of a variety of oceanic processes. CFCs have tracer ages (CFCs and SF6) to constrain transit well characterized atmospheric histories and their time distributions, and to use these distributions to equilibrium concentrations in the surface ocean can provide more accurate estimates of anthropogenic be modeled globally as functions of location and time. CO2 levels in the ocean interior. The multiple Sensitive analytical techniques have been developed tracer approach also provides a means for to measure CFC concentrations in seawater and estimating ventilation rate changes from repeated these measurements have been included in a number transient tracer observations. of recent hydrographic surveys. The data collected have been used to provide information on rates and pathways of ocean circulation and mixing processes, water mass formation rates, rates of biogeochemical processes in the ocean, and to evaluate Ocean General Circulation Models. CFCs have also been used directly to estimate the global uptake of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean.

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Accomplishments 1. The group has continued to develop improved

The team completed CFC and SF6 measurements on the analytical methods for ultra-trace level P18 CLIVAR Repeat Hydrographic/CO2/Tracer expedi- measurements of SF6 in seawater. This tions in the Pacific Ocean in December 2007-February/ anthropogenic compound is rapidly increasing in March 2008, repeating a section occupied a decade the atmosphere and has the potential to provide earlier. A high spatial resolution SF6 section was also valuable information on the rate of uptake of made as part of this section, demonstrating that these gases in the ocean and for estimating water mass measurements can be made on a more-routine basis ventilation rates. These methods have been tested on future hydrographic sections. This program is on visits to Hawaii Ocean Time-Series (HOT) part of a systematic and global re-occupation of select monitoring site. hydrographic sections to quantify changes in stor- age and transport of heat, fresh water, CO2, CFCs and 2. Project personnel have worked with carbon related parameters. Changes in observed CFC fields investigators to utilize CFCs to estimate the global are being used to estimate water mass formation rates oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. and to evaluate the importance of physical vs. biologi- cal processes in observed subsurface dissolved oxygen 3. Decadal changes in oceanic ventilation rates have changes. Combining SF6 and CFC-12 age data will al- been diagnosed from changing transient tracer ages low improved estimates to be made of ideal ages and of using concurrent SF6 and CFC ages to constrain the the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 in this region. impacts of mixing.

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Marine Carbon Program

PIs Objectives NOAA - Richard Feely, Christopher Sabine, Simone 1. Determine the air-sea exchange of CO2 from Alin measurements collected on research ships, volunteer observing ships and moorings. Other Personnel UW - Paul Covert, Katie Fagan, Geoffrey Lebon, 2. Determine the distribution and transport of CO2 Andrea Fassbender, Sylvia Musielewicz, Cynthia into the ocean interior from measurements collected Peacock onboard NOAA and UNOLS research ships. NOAA - Dana Greeley, Cathy Cosca, Laurie Juranek, Dave Wisegarver, Stacy Maenner 3. Determine the extent of the chemical changes that are occurring in the oceans as a direct result of Task II ocean acidification.

NOAA Primary Contact Accomplishments Mike Johnson, Mete Uz 1. Analyzed dissolved inorganic carbon on two legs of Climate Program Office the Clivar/CO2 Repeat Hydrography section P18.

NOAA Goal 2. Analyzed dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to on the Southern Ocean Gasex cruise. Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond

3. Deployed a MAPCO2 drifting buoy during the Description Southern Ocean Gasex cruise. The Marine Carbon Program (MCP) provides a mechanism for research collaboration between PMEL 4. Collected dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity scientists, JISAO scientists and other University of samples on a PRISM survey cruise of Puget Sound. Washington staff with common interests in the marine

carbon cycle and its effects on atmospheric CO2 and 5. Maintained three underway and ten moored CO2 climate. The program focuses on multi disciplinary systems. research involving atmosphere-ocean CO2 exchange fluxes, water column CO2 distributions and transport, and data interpretation and modeling. Special emphasis will be placed on the continuing effort to enhance the scientists’ understanding of the role of the ocean in sequestering the increasing burden of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the changes that are occurring due to ocean acidification.

80 Environmental Chemistry

JISAO scientist, Paul Covert, running a total alkalinity system in the main The NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown off of Easter Island in January 2008 lab of the NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown during the Southern Ocean Gas during a crew change betweens legs 1 and 2 of the P18 CLIVAR/CO2 Exchange cruise in spring 2008. Total alkalinity is one of the parameters repeat hydrography line along 110°W in the South Pacific. During the 3 needed to understand carbon system changes in the ocean and ocean month expedition the ship stopped every 30 miles between San Diego acidification. California and Antarctica to collect samples between the surface and the bottom of the ocean.

Recovery of a towed undulating sampling device known as a The NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown docked in Punta Arenas, Chile in “SuperSoar” during the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange cruise in spring February 2008 before the start of the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange 2008. This device makes some in situ measurements but also pumps experiment. The ship is the largest in the NOAA fleet and carried 31 water back up onto the ship so that high resolution samples for a wide scientists into the South Atlantic for this 42-day expedition. range of ocean properties can be examined between the surface and ~60m while the ship is moving.

81 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Researchers from PMEL and JISAO deploying a heavily instrumented Recovery of a 24-place rosette package on the NOAA ship Ronald H. MAPCO2 buoy during the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange cruise in Brown. Each of the gray bottles holds 12 liters of seawater and can be spring 2008. The long gray tube is one of six 10 m “holey sock” drogues closed at any depth determined by the scientists on the ship looking at used to ensure that the equipment stayed in the same water mass real-time feedback of ocean properties. Once the package is recovered during a Lagrangian experiment. The instruments made a number of the bottles can be sub sampled and analyzed for a wide range of measurements between the surface and 100m to better understand biogeochemical properties what controls gas exchange in the Southern Ocean.

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Hazardous Materials Response (Hazmat)

PI Accomplishments NOAA – Debbie Payton Redesign of the CAMEO Chemical Database Other Personnel The Computer Aided UW - Carl Childs, Mary Evans, Matt Stumbaugh, Management of Nicholas Bigelow Emergency Operations (CAMEO) software suite Task II is the most widely used chemical emergency response software in the world. The program was designed by NOAA Primary Contact NOAA and EPA over 20 years ago and remains the PMEL gold standard for emergency response software. One of CAMEO’s primary features is a library of over 6000 NOAA Goal chemical records that provide emergency responders 4. Support the Nation’s Commerce with Information with rapid access to information on firefighting, for Safe, Efficient and Environmentally Sound non-fire response, first aid, regulatory information, Transportation and physical properties. Unfortunately, over time, Description the chemical library has evolved in fits and starts and the current structure is difficult to maintain and does Protecting public health, ensuring responder safety and not represent the best of current software capabilities. preserving vital national resources during a disaster JISAO scientists are leading a team of UW, NOAA requires that emergency responders have rapid access and EPA personnel in an effort to completely redesign to high quality scientific information. This information the CAMEO chemical library. Most significantly, must be of the highest scientific quality while at the new database management and web technologies same time being readily accessible to a non-technical will be implemented, providing users with complete audience. data sources rather than pre-determined data fields. Objectives The new design will include additional data sources and implement a new search methodology that will The mission of this research group is to improve the dramatically improve users’ ability to rapidly locate the quality of the nation’s emergency response assets by chemical information they are seeking. The US Coast facilitating the incorporation of the highest quality Guard’s Chemical Hazards Response Information scientific information into response decision-making System (CHRIS), the Department of Transportation’s processes at all levels. The team works closely with Emergency Response Guidebook, the CDC’s Pocket emergency responders and the scientific community Guide to Chemical Hazards and the information to ensure that this transition of research to operations contained in the HAZMAT table in 49CFR172 will be occurs in a seamless and efficient manner. They available in their entirety. Providing these complete work with responders and planners to define their sources will significantly improve the utility of information needs, ensuring that the group’s products CAMEO to emergency responders. Several of these will have the greatest possible utility. At the same time, new features have been implemented in an online they work with the broader scientific community to version of the chemical library that is available at www. facilitate the incorporation of innovative technical cameochemicals.noaa.gov. The new stand-alone version advances into emergency response. of CAMEO will be implemented in phases with the

next scheduled release coming in October 2008.

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Other CAMEO Enhancements Along with the chemical library and an atmospheric In addition to the team’s work on the chemical library, transport and dispersion model, the CAMEO software JISAO scientists are working on two other significant suite also has an integral mapping application. This upgrades to the CAMEO software suite. CAMEO has program, called MARPLOT, is used to map threat an integrated Chemical Reactivity Worksheet that can zones from toxic releases and plan response actions. predict the consequences of mixing two chemicals JISAO scientists are currently working with NOAA together. JISAO scientists are conducting an extensive and EPA personnel to implement several new features literature review that will result in the worksheet being into this program. The new version of MARPLOT capable of predicting the generation of specific toxic gas will be able to take advantage of web based map server by-products. The new chemical reactivity worksheet technologies that will give users the ability to download will be integrated into the October 2008 release of a large number of base map features such as aerial CAMEO. In addition, a stand-alone version of the imagery, topographic maps, and many other items. chemical reactivity worksheet will be completed. This Release of this version is expected in FY 2009. stand-alone will provide industry with the capability to merge the reactivity information with warehousing and storage tools.

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2007 Spill of National Significance Full Scale Exercise (SONS 07) The Spills of National Significance (SONS) exercise program is mandated by the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 and represents the largest oil spill exercises in the nation. The 2007 SONS exercise was unique in that it was the first exercise in this program that did not take place in a coastal area. Instead, the 2007 exercise was premised on a series of earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone in SE Missouri. This area last experienced a major series of earthquakes in 1811 & 1812. If a similar series of earthquakes were to occur today, millions of people would be affected in the St. Louis, MO and Memphis, TN metropolitan areas could expect major disruptions. The SONS 07 exercise included nearly one hundred different oil and hazmat releases along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers and a primary goal of the exercise was to practice a high-level triage of these releases.

JISAO scientists were actively engaged in the planning process for this drill including briefing the design team on the role of scientific support in emergency response Figure 1. Plume prediction from a hypothetical chlorine gas release in and helping to define mechanisms to facilitate the the SONS 07 exercise. incorporation of GIS data into the exercise. JISAO scientists also modeled numerous water borne and atmospheric releases of hazardous chemicals to support Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) Modeling exercise “truth.” During the exercise, JISAO personnel JISAO scientists have adapted the General NOAA provided on scene support as a Technical Specialist in Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) into an the St. Louis Area Command providing guidance on operational forecasting tool for Harmful Algal Blooms weather conditions, fate and transport of hazardous on the West Florida Shelf. GNOME is a trajectory materials, access to national inventories of hazardous model typically used to predict the transport of oil materials, and support of GIS efforts to improve spills in the coastal ocean. Adapting GNOME for HAB situational awareness. Following the exercise, JISAO forecasting has been a significant technology transfer scientists were engaged in the preparation of several effort that will allow this key response tool to have even after action reports on the exercise including a final greater utility. report produced by the National Response Team. Specific enhancements have been made to the model Risk Assessment of Potentially Polluting Wrecks to improve how it addresses the local shelf dynamics It has been estimated that there are in excess of 8,500 off the West Florida Shelf. Coastal current patterns shipwrecks that contain enough petroleum products to were developed and wind data from NOAA’s National pose a significant environmental threat. Estimates of Data Buoy Center can now be integrated to drive those the oil remaining on board range from 757 million to currents. New quality control methods were developed 6 billion gallons. (As a point of reference, the Exxon to compare model results of HAB distribution with Valdez oil spill of 1989 released 10.8 million gallons.) satellite observations. Additionally, the model has been JISAO scientists are currently working with NOAA modified to interface with other operational circulation personnel to initiate a comprehensive program to assess models, permitting these current forecasts to be used the risk posed by these vessels evaluate the possible in GNOME. Better methodologies for interfacing response options. GNOME with other circulation models, such as the NOAA Gulf of Mexico model, will ensure that emergency responders can take advantage of emerging

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IOOS opportunities. The IOOS Regional Associations Applying Social Science Methodologies to Assess and are beginning to deliver ever-increasing volumes Improve Training Programs of observational and model data. This project has Over the past decade, NOAA and the USCG have significantly improved NOAA’s ability to ingest these contributed substantial time and effort to support a total data into GNOME. of 15 Consensus Ecological Risk Assessment (CERA) workshops. The workshops are designed to promote These efforts have proven to be successful in forecasting skill-building, discussion, and consensus building among HAB movement. Comparison of model forecasts with stakeholders and professional responders before a spill SeaWiFS imagery and observational data from known happens, to improve the likelihood that a response can be HAB events have demonstrated that GNOME can mounted that best enhances ecological recovery. deliver results that are more accurate than previous forecast methods 75 - 85% of the time. Additionally, Until this year, however, it was not clear whether the GNOME and auxiliary analysis tools that have been CERA workshops were attaining their goal of improving developed by JISAO are quicker and easier to use. oil spill response and planning. To answer this research These improvements to GNOME have also improved question, JISAO scientists conducted an online survey the quality of NOAA’s oil spill trajectory forecasts of workshop participants and performed a qualitative for emergency response. The integration of these analysis of the consensus recommendations developed by additional current options has substantially improved participants at the close of each workshop. overall reliability of GNOME for the West Florida Shelf. These new options have already been used for oil spill While some anecdotal information indicated that the responses. workshops might have prompted some changes in spill response and contingency planning, JISAO’s evaluation project was the first effort to systematically investigate the nature and extent of changes to oil spill response and planning brought about by the CERA workshop process. JISAO scientists presented the results of this research project at the 2008 International Oil Spill Conference in Savannah, Georgia. Among the study findings: one-third of the survey respondents cited changes during drills and responses in their regions that they believe to have been inspired by CERA workshop(s), and nearly half reported that the workshops have influenced contingency planning in their areas. Forty percent are interacting more with other workshop participants. Three-quarters of the respondents reported that by attending CERA workshops, they improved their ability to think through ecological risks and tradeoffs and make decisions about spill response options.

Figure 2. SeaWiFS image showing relatively high HAB chlorophyll concentrations on the West Florida Shelf. (Image from NOAA Center for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS).)

CERA workshop participants assess potential ecological risks from alternative spill response measures. (Image from NOAA Office of Response and Restoration)

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Figure 3. Recovery time of injured resource. (Image from NOAA Office of Response and Restoration)

In a related effort, JISAO scientists conducted, At the request of the U.S. EPA and the U.S. Coast analyzed, and reported results from an online survey Guard, JISAO scientists also proposed strategies for the of US Coast Guard personnel who have emergency development of a suite of web-based training courses in response and planning, or container and vessel NOAA’s hazardous materials response-related software. inspection duties. The purposes of the survey were to learn about respondents’ experiences working JISAO provided supporting materials for upgrading the with NOAA’s CAMEO Chemicals and the Chemical Oil Spill Technologies Selection Guide. The Selection Response Tool websites; obtain suggestions and Guide designed to simplify the process of evaluating and comments about those websites; and learn how selecting potential response measures and technologies respondents build and maintain their response skills during an oil spill. Working with NOAA, USCG, and how they would like to build and maintain their EPA and other members of the response community, skills. JISAO scientists proposed new technology that would result in an on-line interactive version of the Oil Spill Using the Internet to Broaden Distribution of Training Technologies Selection Guide. Work on this upgrade is and Tools for Emergency Responders expected to begin in August 2008. Safe and successful response to hazardous materials incidents requires that responders be well trained and current in their knowledge of response practices and technologies. JISAO scientists have extensive experience in providing the training that responders need. However, as travel costs mount and institutional budgets shrink, it has become more challenging to provide training to emergency responders living and working in dozens of locations around the nation. To meet this challenge, JISAO scientists are making use of Web-based technologies to disseminate training as well as decision support to emergency responders at remote locations.

During the reporting period, JISAO scientists adopted web conferencing tools to conduct training courses Oil spill response options. Clockwise from upper left: application of on hazardous chemical response topics. This training chemical dispersant; skimming operation; in situ burning; applying protection boom. (Image from NOAA Office of Response and targeted NOAA Scientific Support Coordinators and Restoration) U.S. Coast Guard personnel at coastal locations around the U.S. 87 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Usability Engineering for Emergency Responders and Other Spills & Drills Other Key Clients JISAO scientists were engaged in several incidents and Working with JISAO, OR&R applies a rigorous usability exercises involving hazardous materials releases. These engineering process to all of their R&D activities. included providing: Usability engineers study the potential users of a • health and safety consultation and public affairs proposed product, their work, and their work goals, support during the Cosco Busan oil spill in San then apply that knowledge during product design Francisco Bay, and testing. The goal is to ensure that the product will • hazard assessment of the potential consequences of fit the needs of its users and be easy for them to use. a hydrazine or beryllium release resulting from the JISAO scientists applied two key usability-engineering shoot down of US spy satellite during Operation methods during this reporting period: Chicken Little, • environmental chemistry consultation on a release JISAO advised a NOAA website management team of Fluosilicic Acid Release in Braithwaite, LA, on the best approaches for testing the usability of • atmospheric plume model interpretation of a the public website of NOAA’s Office of Response dirty bomb explosion in Portland, OR during the and Restoration (NOAA OR&R). In a usability test, TOPOFF-4 exercise, and a potential user works with the product as he or • GIS assistance with trajectory forecasts for the 2008 she would do in real life, while a test administrator WA NPREP Drill. observes and records what the tester does and says. The test administrator then analyzes observed problems Scientific Presentations and Reviews and recommends design fixes. The JISAO scientists • JISAO scientists made presentations at the 2008 proposed a plan for accomplishing the testing project, International Oil Spill Conference and the Society and are currently conducting the tests. The JISAO for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry scientists also led an effort to collaborate with an meetings. accessible technology specialist at the University • JISAO scientists served as usability advisors to of Washington’s Access Technology Laboratory to the Mid-Atlantic Regional Association of the complete an accessibility review of a suite of public Integrated Ocean Observing System. websites managed by NOAA OR&R. • JISAO scientists served as reviewers for several important emergency response policy documents including a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on urban plume modeling, National Weather Service (NWS) Instructions for Non-weather Related Emergencies, and the US Coast Guard’s Federal On Scene Coordinators Guidebook. • JISAO scientists served as grant reviewers for the Coastal Response Research Center’s Request for Proposals on dispersed oil transport and social science support for oil spills. • JISAO scientists served as editorial reviewers for the Journal of Hazardous Materials. Conducting an accessibility review at the UW Access Technology Laboratory (Image from JISAO)

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Training Courses JISAO scientists taught several courses for emergency responders and managers. These included: • Annual refresher training in Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response (HAZWOPER) for the Port of Seattle Fire Department and the USCG Station Seattle. • CAMEO training for • EPA Region 6 in Oklahoma City • EPA Region 10 in Seattle • Seattle Fire Department’s HAZMAT team • USCG Disaster Response Assistance Team • USCG Sectors Portland, San Francisco, and North Carolina • NOAA Scientific Support Coordinators • A weeklong course on emergency response software tools for US Coast Guard emergency responders at the USCG Training Center in Petaluma, CA.

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NOAA-VENTS Hydrothermal Research Group

PIs sequestration in the deep ocean. In addition, the harsh UW - David A. Butterfield, Joseph A. Resing ecosystems are homes to novel microbes, enzymes, and macro fauna which are a valuable resource to be Other Personnel explored, understood, and preserved. Finally, these UW - Kevin K. Roe, Nathaniel J. Buck, Andrew submarine volcanoes are responsible for the creation of Opatkiewicz, Marvin D. Lilley, John Baross, Eric large economically significant ore deposits. Olson, James Murray, Lia Ossiander NOAA - Stephen Hammond, Ed Baker, Robert Embley, Objectives William Lavelle, John Lupton, Sharon Walker 1. To explore the ocean to locate and characterize neovolcanic areas, their associated hydrothermal JISAO Themes ecosystems, and their impact on the oceans. Marine Ecosystem 2. To understand the effects of ocean acidification on Environmental Chemistry ecosystems around hydrothermal environments. 3. To understand how submarine hydrothermal Task II systems evolve over time and how they respond to local and regional tectonic or volcanic events. NOAA Primary Contact 4. To understand the link between the chemical PMEL environment and microbial communities in hydrothermal vents. NOAA Goal 1. Protect, Restore and Manage the Use of Coastal Accomplishments and Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based 1. Western Pacific. Management JISAO and NOAA scientists have participated Description in a multi-year project funded by NOAA Ocean Exploration to study submarine volcanic arcs in The NOAA-VENTS Program serves the primary the western Pacific. The scientists have conducted NOAA strategic goal to “protect, restore and manage more than five major oceanographic expeditions the use of coastal and ocean resources through an to study submarine arc volcanoes in this region. ecosystem approach to management.” Highlights from these expeditions can be seen on To meet the needs of the strategic plan, the Vents Ocean Exploration web sites: http://oceanexplorer. program addresses ecosystem goals for the Office of noaa.gov/explorations/. Oceanic and Atmospheric Research as a part of the NOAA crosscutting Ecosystem Research Program (ERP). The ERP is responsible for the systematic • Brothers Volcano. In August 2007, the Vents exploration of the ocean environment where new program continued exploration of Brothers resources are discovered or developed and new regions Seamount on the Kermadec arc near New are explored. Zealand (see Figure1). This volcano was identified as hydrothermally active during Continued exploration and discovery in new areas will earlier exploration by Vents program scientists expand the boundaries of the publics understanding in collaboration with scientists from the Institute of the Earth system. JISAO scientists Joseph of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) in Resing and David Butterfield are actively engaged New Zealand. Follow up studies employing in research that discovers and characterizes novel the manned submersibles Pisces IV and V hydrothermal ecosystems and their impact on the located several hydrothermal areas. In 2007, ocean environment. Submarine volcanoes and their the team used the Autonomous Underwater hydrothermal vents affect marine ecosystems from Vehicle, ABE to conduct a fine scale survey of the deep to the surface ocean. They present uniquely the Brothers’ crater. This survey produced maps valuable natural laboratories to study the potential of the magnetic properties of the volcano, of impact of ocean acidification and carbon dioxide the distribution of the hydrothermal plumes

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• Mariana Arc. Over the 2007-2008 time period, JISAO and NOAA scientists continued to work on data and samples from the Mariana Arc. The results of these efforts were the submission and/ or publication of six manuscripts concerning these hydrothermal systems. Of particular focus was NW Rota-1 volcano which as been in an active state of eruption during most (maybe all) of the team’s studies. Most scientists view eruptions, as the start of the magmatic/hydrothermal cycle and thus gaining an understanding of them is crucial to their understanding of hydrothermal systems. In the 2007-2008 time frame, the group received funding to continue their studies of NW Rota- 1. The scientists are scheduled to return in the Figure 1. Locations of recent deep-sea exploration around the Pacific spring of 2009. ring of fire. Four years of intensive fieldwork have yielded unprecedented views of active submarine volcanism, molten sulfur flows, liquid carbon • Lau Basin. In 2003 and 2004, JISAO and NOAA dioxide vents, and a wide range of novel submarine ecosystems. (Figure courtesy of NOAA Ocean Exploration and PMEL VENTS Program.) scientists participated in the initial exploration of the hydrothermal activity within the Lau (temperature, Eh, optical backscatter, and basin along the East Lau spreading center pH), and high-resolution bathymetric maps of (ELSC) and the Fonualei Rift. This work was the caldera walls. In addition, hydrothermal done as the initial exploration of the ELSC plumes were examined and sampled using to create an integrated study site for future towed instruments and sampling gear. The most exploration and study. In 2008, JISAO and exciting results were the ability to identify both NOAA scientists returned to the Lau basin to recent and past hydrothermally active areas from search for hydrothermal activity along the flanks the magnetic filed anomalies mapped at the of the ridge. In general, submarine volcanoes on volcano (Figure 2). the linear global mid ocean ridge system have been shown to cool by circulating water along • Rumble III. On the same cruise to Brothers the axes, thus producing hydrothermal fluids seamount, the team also examined and sampled and vents that line up along the ridge crest. the hydrothermal plume above Rumble III Previous studies, however, have shown that submarine volcano. This volcano is very near sub-seafloor magma chambers extend beyond the surface of the ocean. This fact suggests that the ridge crests to the flanks, suggesting that it might be responsible for enhancing biological hydrothermal cooling might also extend to the productivity in the near surface waters above flanks. The team’s results identified little high the volcano. Because this cruise took place temperature hydrothermal cooling along the during the Austral winter, waters from more ridge flanks of the ELSC, however their results than 200m depth were being mixed into the do not discount the possibility that the magma surface ocean. These samples will be examined chambers are cooled by large amounts of low for iron content. Fe is a micronutrient required temperature diffuse hydrothermal flow. They for phytoplankton growth. Another interesting will return to the Lau Basin in November 2008, feature of seamounts is that in the presence of to identify new areas of hydrothermal activity. tidal currents, they force water to rise towards the surface and in this manner, they can stir nutrient • Arctic Ocean. The Gakkel Ridge is the planet’s rich waters into closer proximity to the ocean’s slowest spreading and least explored mid-ocean surface. In winter months, this effect becomes ridge. It extends through the Eurasian Basin of more pronounced and nutrient rich waters can the Arctic Ocean from northern Greenland to be stirred into the surface ocean. the Laptev Sea, lying some 5000 meters below

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Figure 2. Results from survey at Brothers’ Volcano on the Kermadec arc. This survey was accomplished using an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV), which is an autonomous flying robot that can conduct surveys independently of the surface ship. A. High resolution bathymetric maps overlain on existing lower resolution map. The inset box is the area covered in B and C. B. Magnetic field overlaying bathymetry in grey. Hydrothermal fluids remove the remnant magnetism in the volcanic rocks. The purple colors indicate areas of low magnetization, which identifies locations where hot waters have altered the underlying rock. C. The purple identifies areas emitting chemically altered water from hydrothermal vents. This is measured using a sensor that measures the oxidation-reduction potential in the plume waters. D. A hydrothermal vent located near the plume and magnetic anomalies. a permanent ice cap. In July and August 2007, of hydrothermal activity on the hot spot an expedition to the Arctic took place to locate influenced GSC. Their ongoing analysis of the and characterize the hydrothermal plumes in data has resulted in the characterization of the this area. The scientist’s colleague Henrietta hydrothermal venting and associated ecosystems Edmonds from the University of Texas and along the ridge crest and has resulted in the her students took part in this expedition. They publication or submission of four manuscripts. collected samples for trace metals (Resing and Vent fluid chemistry results from the 2002 Buck), particulate matter composition (Resing Ocean Exploration expedition to the original and Buck) and helium isotopes (Lupton, vent sites discovered in 1977 were published this PMEL Newport). All of the samples that were year (Pester et al.). collected have been analyzed. The student, Lucia Upchurch, visited the Resing lab in the winter 2. Of particular interest to JISAO and the vents of 2008 to conduct the Mn analyses on the trace program is the venting of fluids rich in carbon element samples. She later participated in our dioxide and other acids. Understanding how the cruise to the Lau Basin. carbon dioxide escapes the hydrothermal systems and disperses throughout the oceans will aid in • Galapagos Spreading Center (GSC). In understanding any possible role that the oceans 2006, the group examined the distribution 92 Environmental Chemistry

might play in carbon sequestration. Submarine cooperation with Dr. Richard Feely and Dr. Chris volcanic emissions of carbon dioxide create a more Sabine at PMEL and with other investigators at the acidic environment than that acidifying the surface University of Hawaii. ocean from the atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide. Thus, understanding these environments 3. Very little is known about how hydrothermal will provide valuable insight on how oceanic systems change when they are perturbed by ecosystems will respond to the stress of ocean geological events, and the prospect of recording acidification. data and collecting samples immediately after an event promises to yield new insight into the Ocean exploration on the Mariana arc has workings of hydrothermal systems. Volcanic events discovered ecosystems impacted by local have been seen to give rise to microbial blooms,

acidification. CO2-rich hydrothermal fluids at NW but the chemical conditions that lead to increased Eifuku volcano produce lowered pH conditions biomass in vent fluids have not been measured. around extensive, dense mussel communities. A spot survey of water bathing mussel communities • After 5 years of intensive multi-investigator has a pH range from 5.5 to 7.2, resulting in work sponsored by the W.M. Keck Foundation, under saturation of both calcite and aragonite. JISAO scientists (Butterfield, Roe) are Remarkably, mussels thrive in this environment, maintaining time-series studies of hydrothermal but their mixed aragonite/calcite shells are only composition to link seismic activity and half as thick as those of the same species living in a hydrothermal processes (especially chemical and higher pH range. A manuscript is in preparation. microbiological processes) along the Endeavour segment of the Juan de Fuca ridge. Their work is Resing has measured pH anomalies in many focused on time-series samplers for chemistry locations within hydrothermal plumes and and microbiology that have been deployed and continues to work to extend the range of recovered at approximately yearlong intervals to commercial pH sensors. During the cruise to create weekly time-series extending from 2003 Brothers Volcano, the scientists instrumented the through 2007. The 2005-2006 sampling has AUV with a pH sensor to map acidity during the shown a response in a hydrothermal vent that is surveys of the volcano. Unfortunately, the AUV strongly correlated with earthquakes in February had electronic noise problems on the same channel 2005. as the pH sensor and these data will require a great deal of work to eliminate the noise. In addition • Seismic activity on the Blanco fracture zone and to the AUV work, samples were collected from Gorda Ridge prompted a rapid response cruise the plumes for pH and Total Carbon Dioxide to to this region in April of 2008. This cruise was examine the regions of elevated acidity around the carried out by the Newport branch of the Vents volcano. program (J. Lupton). The participants collected samples for Total dissolvable metals. They have Butterfield has adapted the remote access not yet been analyzed. Field data suggests that samplers to collect samples for multiple chemical no intense event related plume was found. measurements in diverse oceanic environments, Nathan Buck and Joseph Resing were unable including coral reefs and sites affected by acidic to participate due to their presence on the Lau hydrothermal output. Two RAS instruments were basin cruise. deployed in June 2008 in Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii • The NeMO project continues to monitor by graduate student Katie Fagin to collect time- hydrothermal vents on Axial Volcano. A cruise series samples within a coral reef environment. to Axial Volcano was conducted in August

Hourly variation in alkalinity, total CO2, Ca, and and September of 2007 (Butterfield, Roe, and Mg over diurnal cycles will be examined in order Buck). Recovered filters and water samples to estimate calcification rates. The sampling was allow extensive chemical analysis to detect a technical success. The samples have not yet been changes related to volcanic activity or long- analyzed. The coral reef work is being done in term evolution. At present, Butterfield has one

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time-series sampler taking approximately weekly resulting in better capacity and ease of use. samples, and they intend to maintain that effort Research activities to support this goal have as long as possible, with the goal of monitoring been sponsored by the PMEL Vents Program, Axial Volcano for an entire eruptive cycle. Washington Sea Grant, NOAA West Coast and Resing has been monitoring hydrothermal Polar Regions Undersea Research Center, the plume composition at Axial with annual water W.M. Keck Foundation, and the National Science column sampling, tracking the changes in Foundation. UW Oceanography graduate student output of gases and metals. This work is funded Andrew Opatkiewicz (Masters Degree, 2007; by the NOAA Vents program. co-supervised by J. Baross and D. Butterfield) is applying innovative methods of DNA analysis • An eruption along the North East Pacific Rise to samples collected from volcanic arcs and the NEPR took place in mid-2006. Trace element Juan de Fuca ridge. His first paper has just been samples were collected from the hydrothermal submitted to Environmental Microbiology, using plumes above the eruptive site. During the statistical analysis of DNA fingerprinting and summer of 2007, Hollings scholar Dondra Biller fluid chemistry data to show previously unseen measured Mn in these samples and these data patterns in microbial community structure. Post- were included in a published manuscript by doctoral researcher Julie Huber (Marine Biological Love et al., (see appendix 11). Laboratory at Woods Hole) is conducting state- of-the-art cloning and “454” tag sequencing on 4. Hydrothermal ecosystems are highly diverse samples collected by HFPS, and is lead author on a and complex. The scientist’s understanding of new paper that shows the extremely high diversity hydrothermal ecology is in its infancy, and new in diffuse fluids, especially among the class of data are required to advance knowledge in this epsilon-proteobacteria. area. They are in a period of explosive growth in knowledge of microbial ecology, and the work Outreach and Service being done by JISAO scientists and their colleagues During the time period 2007 to 2008, the Vents in microbiology is at the forefront of work in program has hosted three NOAA-Hollings fellows submarine microbial ecology. to work at the Seattle Laboratory. Roxanne Hastings (University of South Florida) and Alex Breitinger The Hydrothermal Fluid and Particle Sampler (DePauw) have worked with D. Butterfield on (HFPS) collects clean water samples and hydrothermal vent chemistry. Dondra Biller from concentrate microbes on filters from the same the University of California San Diego, worked with location, while recording the temperature of J. Resing to develop a new analytical technique. In venting fluids in order to control sample quality. addition, Resing hosted two graduate students on the This sampler continues to collect a broad suite of cruise to the Lau basin. Resing made a presentation samples that have been and are being analyzed on erupting volcanoes to a 2nd grade classroom in the for their chemical and microbial content. The Seattle area. results have been published in a series of papers that describe microbial populations and their Resing is currently a member of the National Science relationship to changing chemical conditions. Foundation Ridge 2000 steering committee and on HFPS has been used in support of this research the advisory committee to the NSF- Marine Geology goal throughout the NE Pacific and in global and Geophysics Data systems program. Butterfield is exploration of volcanic arcs. Butterfield and currently serving on the NOAA AUV working group PMEL engineers have just completed a re- committee, and is an organizer of a RIDGE 2000 design of the plumbing system for HFPS, synthesis and modeling workshop scheduled for late September, 2008.

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PMEL-JISAO Atmospheric Chemistry - Aerosol Program

PIs Accomplishments NOAA - Tim Bates, Patricia Quinn 1. Aerosol Research: The aerosol data collected during the Texas Air Quality Study and Gulf of Other Personnel Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate UW - Dave Covert, Sarah Doherty, Drew Hamilton, Study (GoMACCS) were reduced, analyzed, and Catherine Hoyle, James Johnson, Lindsey Shank made available to the scientific community on the NOAA - Derek Coffman, Kristen Schulz group’s website. (Figure 1). Quinn et al., 2008 used the data to show the influence of particle size Task II and chemistry on the cloud nucleating properties of aerosols. Neglecting the particle chemistry in NOAA Primary Contact the sub 200 nm diameter size range can lead to an A.R. Ravishankara - Climate Office under or overestimate of CCN number by up to J. Meagher - Health of the Atmosphere 50%. Bates et al., 2008 used the data to investigate aerosol sources and transformation processes. NOAA Goals The data showed that air quality forecast models 2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to need to include ship emissions and dust transport Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond to correctly characterize aerosol loadings in SE 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water Texas. Compliance with PM 2.5 regulations in Information the Houston-Galveston area may require stricter controls on upwind aerosol sources (e.g. ship Description emissions). The PMEL-JISAO Atmospheric Chemistry - Aerosol Program is designed to quantify the spatial and 2. The program also leads an international field study temporal distribution of natural and anthropogenic in the Arctic as part of the International Polar Year. atmospheric aerosol particles and to determine the The 40 day research cruise International Chemistry physical, meteorological and biogeochemical processes Experiment in the Arctic Lower Troposphere ( controlling their formation, evolution and properties. ICEALOT ) investigated sources of pollutants to the Arctic, the transport of these pollutants to Objectives the Arctic, and their climate impact in the Arctic 1. To assess the regional climate and air quality (Figure 2). impacts of atmospheric aerosol particles through measurements of their chemical and radiative 3. PMEL/JISAO hosts the International Global properties. Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Core Project Office with funding from NOAA, NSF and NASA. 2. To improve the scientists’ capability to observe, The goal of IGAC is to promote and facilitate understand, predict, and protect the quality of the international atmospheric chemistry research atmosphere through national and international that will lead to a better understanding of the partnerships. Earth System. Dr. Sarah Doherty, JISAO Research Scientist, is the Executive Officer (http://www. igac.noaa.gov/). In 2007 the Project oversaw six research tasks, cosponsored six workshops, jointly spearheaded three new initiatives on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Laboratory Studies in Atmospheric Chemistry, and Aerosols, Clouds, Precipitation and Climate, and published and distributed three Newsletters to ~32,000 scientists. All IGAC newsletters are available to download on the IGAC web page.

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Figure 1. Development of aerosol parameterizations for air quality Figure 2. ICEALOT cruise track colored by measured concentrations of and climate models particulate sulfate

Ice covered decks of the R/V Knorr during the ICEALOT cruise to the Arctic

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Surface Ocean 13C/12C Measurements: a tracer of anthropogenic CO2 uptake

PI California and Australia were used to determine the UW - Paul Quay impact of biological productivity rates on surface

pCO2 levels and, thus, air-sea CO2 flux. The basic Other Personnel approach relies on the observation that the air-sea UW – John Stutsman, Laurie Juranek δ13C disequilibrium is a result of organic carbon export from the mixed layer. Thus by estimating Task III the air-sea gas exchange rate from wind speed (e.g., Wanninkhof, 1992) and measuring the air- NOAA Primary Contact sea δ13C disequilibrium, the organic carbon (OC) Office of Global Programs export rate can be estimated. Based on the group’s δ13C measurements on the Columbus Waikato NOAA Goal cruises, they calculated a δ13C disequilibrium of 1 to 2 ‰, which yielded organic carbon export rates 2. Understand climate variability and change to -2 -1 enhance society’s ability to plan and respond of 2 to 4 mols C m yr between 30ºN and 30ºS in the subtropical and equatorial Pacific Ocean. Objectives Equatorial OC export rates were double those for Measure the change in the 13C/12C of dissolved the subtropical gyres. These OC export rates were inorganic carbon (DIC) in the surface ocean in order to significantly higher (~2x) than concurrent satellite- determine the rate of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic based estimates and estimates derived from DIC drawdown. CO2.

Accomplishments 3. Impact on Surface Air-Sea CO2 Flux – The net 1. Sample Collection – The group’s approach to obtain air-sea CO2 flux on the Columbus Waikato cruises -2 -1 the greatest spatial and temporal coverage of the varied from 4 mols C m yr evasion from the ocean -2 -1 δ13C change in the surface ocean is to use Volunteer at the equator to +1 mols C m yr invasion from Observing Ships (VOSs) for sample collection. the atmosphere in the subtropical gyre in the N. 13 12 Seawater samples for the analysis of the C/ C of Pacific. These air-sea 2CO exchange rates were the the DIC can be collected while underway using the result of the imbalance between the rates of DIC ship’s seawater intake line. These samples can be supply and OC export. In the equatorial ocean, the preserved for several years if the sample is poisoned DIC supply rate via upwelling greatly exceeded the and sealed against air. During the past year, they OC export rate, whereas in the subtropics the DIC have collected δ13C-DIC samples on several ships supply and OC export rates were comparable. In this including the Polar Sea Coast Guard icebreaker region of the Pacific Ocean (30ºS to 30ºN), the net -2 -1 between Seattle and McMurdo, Antarctica, the air-sea CO2 flux was 0.2 mols C m yr well below -2 -1 Polarstern a German research vessel between the global average value of 0.5 mols C m yr . Bremen, Germany and Cape Town, S. Africa, and 13 the L.M. Gould cruises between Punta Aranus and 4. The results of the δ C measurements on the Antarctica. Approximately ~500 samples for δ13C Columbus Waikato container ship cruises, as analysis on these cruises over the last year. discussed above, are described in a paper entitled Net community production rates in the subtropical 2. Calculation of Organic Carbon Export Rates – and equatorial Pacific Ocean estimated from the 13 The δ13C measurements from nine container ship air-sea δ C disequilibrium by P. Quay, J. Stutsman, cruises aboard the Columbus Waikato between R. Feely and L. Juranek that has been accepted for publication in Global Biogeochemical Cycles.

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Coastal Oceanography

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Estuaries

PI Inundation Forecast for Tsunami (SIFT) is being UW - Vasily Titov implemented at NOAA’s Tsunami Warning Centers, and the continuing development of the system will Other Personnel expand the geographical coverage to include the UW - Diego Arcas, Chris Chamberlin, Edison Gica, development of site-specific forecast models for at Yong Wei, Liujuan Tang, Robert Weiss, Elena Tolkova, least 75 major U.S. population centers along the Jean C Newman, Mick Spillane, Burak Uslu, Nazila Pacific, Caribbean, Atlantic and Gulf coasts. NCTR is Merati, Christopher Moore, Nicolas Arcos, Clinton involved in several national and international tsunami Pells, Donald Denbo, John Osborne, Mike Traum, Lidia educational programs by developing curriculum and Bressan teaching certificate courses on tsunami modeling, and NOAA - Hongqiang Zhou, Eddie Bernard, Nancy developing tsunami resilient communities. Soreide, Marie C Eble Tsunami research is one of the main components of Task II NCTR activities and the JISAO Estuaries Research Program. The results and expertise of the JISAO/ NOAA Primary Contact NOAA researchers in modeling, measurements, data Marie Eble, assessment and tsunami forecast methodology are not NOAA/OAR/PMEL only published extensively, but also found in direct applications of many collaborative projects with other NOAA Goals agencies and with collaborators worldwide. 3. Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information NCTR is developing recommendations, regulations and 4. Support the Nation’s Commerce with Information procedures for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, for Safe, Efficient & Environmentally Sound FEMA, California Seismic Safety Commission, the Transportation State of Washington. Accelerated development of Description tsunami warning systems by many countries fuels a surge of interest in the NCTR expertise in tsunami The JISAO Estuaries Research Program works within forecast, and the Center is actively involved in NOAA’s National Center for Tsunami Research UNESCO’s Tsunami Warning System development (NCTR) to improve the understanding of tsunami for the Indian Ocean. NCTR is also building tsunami dynamics, to develop applications that will reduce forecast capabilities in Australia, Europe, South tsunami hazard and to help develop tsunami-resilient America, Caribbean and other regions. communities. Objectives Currently, the primary goals of NCTR are in direct 1. To improve tsunami forecasts and warnings. support of a major expansion and acceleration of The NCTR has developed and is implementing the NOAA Tsunami Program, in the wake of the 26 tsunami-forecasting tools for the NOAA Tsunami December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami disaster. In Warning System. The methodology integrates 2006, The U.S. Congress passed the Tsunami Warning two PMEL technologies – tsunami modelling and and Education Act (Public Law 109-424). The Act tsunameter measurements – to provide real-time specifies four tsunami elements: warning, education, forecasts for warning guidance. research, and international cooperation. The JISAO Estuary Research Program is involved in all four 2. To improve tsunami hazard assessment components of the NOAA Tsunami Program that are methodology. Research and Development now required by law. conducted by the NCTR to improve their understanding of tsunami dynamics is exploited NCTR is a leader in the research and development to improve development of community-specific of the operational NOAA Tsunami Forecast as part inundation maps and other long-term forecast of the U.S. Tsunami Warning System. Short-term

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products that describe the potential hazard. These The Center is focused on developing forecast research results and products are essential tools for models for population centers along the U.S. State Emergency Management and Geotechnical coastlines as well as creating a more effective officials responsible for hazard mitigation, and efficient forecast system for the two U.S. education, and disaster planning and response. The warning centers. During 2007-2008, following model forecast tools developed by NCTR provide an the previously developed Implementation Plan, unprecedented level of tsunami hazard assessment NCTR successfully completed the delivery of analysis for local coastal communities. two improved intermediate versions of SIFT (Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis 3. To help develop tsunami forecast and warning -Version 2.0 and 2.1) to the Warning Centers. capabilities for international partners. NCTR is The version provides critical capability for the involved in developing the Tsunami Warning tsunami forecast system to perform inversion of System for the Indian Ocean, working with the DART deep-ocean tsunameter data for tsunami the UNESCO-organized Intergovernmental sources assessment. This capability allows TWCs Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami to perform real-time offshore model forecast Warning System (ICG/IOTWS). As part of NOAA’s that is verified by real-time tsunami data. The international commitment, NCTR is involved in size of the model propagation database has been the capacity building efforts to establish tsunami increased to 1450 model propagation scenarios community modeling activity for the Indian to provide enhanced forecast capabilities for all Ocean nations. The Program is collaborating with potential tsunami sources in the Pacific Ocean, other nations in the Pacific, Caribbean, Atlantic Indian Ocean and the Caribbean. NCTR is also and Mediterranean to establish local and regional developing Stand-by Inundation Models (SIMs) tsunami forecast capabilities. NCTR provides for high-resolution community-level tsunami expertise and tools for mutual development of the forecast – the last crucial component of the global tsunami forecast and warning capabilities. forecast system. The Implementation Plan calls for development of high-resolution tsunami forecast Accomplishments models (SIMs) for at least 75 coastal communities 1. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR), at risk in the U.S. 30 SIMs has already been established at PMEL in October 2005, leads the developed. In addition, NCTR has been exercising tsunami research and development efforts for the SIFT in experimental mode to provide real-time improved Tsunami Warning System. Many of the assistance for the Warning Centers and test SIFT Center’s employees are JISAO research scientists performance during the response and post event who work under the JISAO Estuaries Research analysis of three destructive tsunamis during Program and collaborate with NOAA scientists on 2007-2008: August 15th, 2007(Peru), September this project. 12th, 2007 (Sumatra), November 14th, 2007 (Chile);

Figure 1. 2008 forecast: Components of the Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis (SIFT) system for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

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and several small events. Successful experimental forecast tested the SIFT methodology and help to avoid unnecessary evacuations for these tsunamis that were not hazardous for the U.S. coastlines. In total, eight destructive tsunamis have been successfully forecasted with SIFT since 2006 and proved the effectiveness of the SIFT methodology.

2. The NCTR started a multi-year Tsunami Hazard Assessment project for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to evaluate tsunami risk for nuclear power plants. This research project will lead to the development of improved recommendations for the Nuclear Power Plants’ tsunami hazard Chris Moore (right) during ComMIT (Community Model Interface for assessment. During the first year, NCTR has Tsunami) training in Seychelles. developed preliminary assessment of tsunami hazard from seismic sources from the Caribbean access to tsunami modeling technology for Indian region for the U.S. East Coast. An advanced Ocean. ComMIT has proven to be a very effective modeling technique has been developed for tool for capacity building in tsunami modeling simulating landslide-generated tsunamis to assess expertise in the Indian Ocean region and beyond. landslide hazard for the East Coast from local and NCTR was asked to organize several training distant sources. workshop for ComMIT applications. In 2007-2008 NCTR continued development of ComMIT and NCTR continues collaboration with the State of engaged in active educational and training activity Washington in inundation mapping and hazard to propagate this technology. UNESCO sponsored assessment studies. Tsunami inundation mapping three additional NCTR-led ComMIT workshop project for Everett has been started. in Thailand, Indonesia, Seychelles; two additional trainings were performed by trained instructors NCTR has started the Hazard Assessment Project without NCTR staff; two more workshops were for Guam in collaboration with NOAA’s National sponsored and organized in Spain and Chile. Ocean Service. This study provides an example use More than 100 scientists have participated in the of the tsunami forecast tools for hazard assessment. training. Preliminary model assessment for Guam has been complete. The product development and future 4. NCTR and JISAO Estuaries Research Program plans are being discussed with NOS. expertise in tsunami forecast is in high demand internationally, while coastal nations are developing NCTR R&D efforts resulted in more than their own tsunami warning systems. Australia and 10 publications and numerous conference Chile have signed formal agreements that included presentations during the past year. NCTR collaboration, Russia, China, European Union and several other nations have expressed 3. By the request of the Intergovernmental interest in collaborating in the forecast system Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean development. Several international scientists have Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/ expressed interest in long-term JISAO Estuary IOTWS II) and with support from USAID, NCTR Program for training and collaboration. Currently has developed web-enabled Community Model NCTR is hosting one graduate student from Italy Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) that provides and a National Research Council postdoc.

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Figure 2. Timeline of NCTR’s real-time forecast of 15 August 2007 Peruvian tsunami

Figure 3. Tsunami hazard assessment summary for Virginia Beach coastal community is from the Caribbean Region.

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Tsunami Science and Preparedness Certificate Program

PI • Almost all of the 32 students in the first program UW - David Szatmary offering were from five countries that were severely affected by the 2004 tsunami: Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Other Personnel Thailand, India and the Maldives. UW - John Stephens, Julie Smith, Catherine Petroff, • Students were national-level professionals from Nicolas Arcos, Stacy White, Heather Judge many different fields. NOAA – Eddie Bernard, Frank Gonzalez, David • Students were housed in University of Washington McKinnie residence halls, and attended classes on campus in classroom and lab space provided by the Task III Geography Department. • Instructors and guest speakers were nationally and NOAA Primary Contact internationally known experts. Eddie Bernard, PMEL • Students went on two field trips: to the Washington State Emergency Management Center NOAA Goal and to Pacific County to view paleotsunami sites 5. Mission Support and to attend an emergency management meeting. Description Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Offering, March JISAO funds were used for the development and 2008: implementation of the certificate program in Tsunami • AIT received 240 applications from the five target Science and Preparedness. The certificate program was nations (Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, India held on the University of Washington campus, July and the Maldives), as well as from the Philippines 22-August 2, 2007, and was held a second time at the and Canada. There were 120 applications from Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok, March Indonesia alone. 11-26, 2008. • 38 participants were selected; 30 received USAID funding. University of Washington Offering, summer, 2007: • Students were housed in AIT residence halls. • The certificate program was comprised of three • The program maintained course topics and courses: Tsunami Hazard Assessment, Tsunami structure of the 2007 offering, but added the theme Warning Systems, and Tsunami Mitigation, of Coastal Community Resilience. Preparedness, Response and Recovery. • Field trips were made to areas in Thailand that • The departments of Earth and Space Science, Civil were affected by the 2004 tsunami. Students also and Environmental Engineering and the School of visited paleotsunami sites. Marine Affairs collaborated with staff on program • Five NOAA staff members were involved as content and approved the courses. resource people and lecturers. • An advisory board of 20 tsunami experts from a variety of disciplines was formed. A listing of Objectives the advisory board can be viewed at: http://www. The Tsunami Science and Preparedness certificate extension.washington.edu/ext/certificates/tsp/tsp_ program aims to provide its audience—planners, policy brd.asp makers, emergency managers, scientists, engineers and • The application process was competitive. Program other professionals—with a comprehensive under- staff worked closely with USAID staff and advisory standing of tsunami science and the use of state-of-the- board member Charlie Macpherson to identify art warning systems technologies, as well as the social, top-level candidates. political and cultural knowledge needed to help people respond to and recover from these disasters, and to develop and maintain tsunami-resilient communities.

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Accomplishments • Evaluations from both programs indicate a high level of participant satisfaction with almost all aspects of the certificate program: • For the 2007 offering, over ninety per cent of participants were satisfied or very satisfied with the certificate program and would recommend it to others. • For the 2008 offering, over ninety per cent of the participants were satisfied or very satisfied with the topics covered in the three program courses. • Participants in both offerings were enthusiastic about the field trips that were part of each program. Classroom, Bangkok

UW Tsunami Classroom Canoes to paleotsunami

Closing ceremony group

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US-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIa-CCS: Latitudinal Variation of Upwelling, Retention, Nutrient Supply and Freshwater Effects in the California Current System

PI Accomplishments UW - Barbara Hickey This project focuses primarily on datasets from two moored sensor arrays deployed in the California Cur- Other Personnel rent System (CCS) from 1997/8-2003. The moorings UW - Nancy Kachel, Susan Geier, Thomas Connolly were deployed on the shelf near Grays Harbor, Wash- ington and near Coos Bay, Oregon. Work is collabora- Task III tive, in particular, using similar data acquired by other PIs at two other sites in the CCS (Newport, OR, Kosro NOAA Primary Contact PI and Rogue River, OR, Ramp PI). Elizabeth Turner, PMEL Along coast water properties: NOAA Goal Work on the paper including data from all four 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal GLOBEC NEP moorings was continued. This paper & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based describes alongcoast variability in velocity and water Management properties and its interannual variation.

Description The results show that upwelling-favorable wind This project focuses primarily on datasets from two stress varied by more than a factor of three over the moored sensor arrays deployed in the California latitudinal range of the data obtained during GLOBEC, Current System (CCS) from 1997/8-2003. The decreasing to the north. In spite of these latitudinal moorings were deployed on the shelf near Grays differences, seasonal cycles as well as year to year Harbor, Washington and near Coos Bay, Oregon. differences in water properties were remarkably similar Work is collaborative, in particular, using similar data at all sites, although south to north lags generally occur. acquired by other PIs at two other sites in the CCS (Newport, OR, Kosro PI and Rogue River, OR, Ramp The overall conclusion is that large scale processes PI). The project is also collaborative with other CCS overwhelm local spatial scale differences on these time PIs, using data acquired on survey and process cruises scales. The results reaffirm the importance of remote as well as model output. forcing in the CCS on seasonal to interannual scales.

Objectives Specific conclusions include the following: Year to year differences in seasonal water properties are very large The project is also collaborative with other CCS PIs, scale (>500 km along the shelf) and affect the whole using data acquired on survey and process cruises shelf water column; differences in the magnitude of the as well as model output. Project Objectives are to seasonal coastal jet have significantly shorter alongshelf investigate: structure. 1. Alongshore variability of water properties and • Water property differences from year to year are circulation in the California Current System much more variable in winter (low S, high T) than 2. Interannual variability in water properties and in summer (high S, low T). circulation • A south to north lag of 1-3 months usually occurs 3. Relationship of such variability to higher trophic in summer properties (T, S, V), with greater levels alongshelf lags in maximum coastal jet velocity. • Maximum alongshelf velocity (V) precedes S, T and maximum local alongshelf wind stress at each location, with a greater lead in winter than in summer.

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• Year to year differences in the speed of the Tom Connolly will defend his master’s thesis spring summertime coastal jet are not related to the quarter. His work illustrates the importance of benthic strength of the local upwelling-favorable wind respiration and also alongshelf transport to hypoxic stress. coastal conditions. A paper describing these results will • Year to year water property differences (both be submitted this summer. For his PhD he will attempt maxima and minima) are strongly related to to use existing models to differentiate between local alongshelf wind stress in winter but not in summer. and remote forcing of seasonal upwelling. • Year to year winter time whole water column salinity differences are not related to regional Data sharing: freshwater input Dr. Hickey’s data has been used for model-data • Year to year water property differences are strongly comparison by Dr. Allen’s modeling group. It has related to alongshore wind stress in winter, but not also been used by Dr. Strub’s group to ground truth in summer. velocities obtained from satellite altimetery data (Saraceno, M., P.T. Strub, and P.M. Kosro. “Estimates A student, Tom Connolly, supported in part by this of Sea Surface Height and Near Surface Alongshore project, will attempt to separate remote and local Coastal Currents From Combinations of Altimeters wind forcing as it pertains to upwelling in the Pacific and Tide Gauges”, submitted to the Journal of Northwest, using these datasets. Geophysical Research). It has been used by Alexander Kurapov for presentations at EPOC and the Ocean Coastal hypoxia: Science meeting (“The Effect of the Columbia River In recent years a “dead zone” has emerged in some Plume on the Upwelling Dynamics off Oregon”). years on the shelf off central Oregon. Tom Connolly has been studying hypoxia on the Washington coast, using New fundamental or applied knowledge: both historical data and moored sensors deployed in Large scale processes overwhelm local spatial scale the summers of 2005, 2006 and 2007. Results indicate a differences on seasonal time scales. The results reaffirm seasonal trend, consistent with estimates of respiration, the importance of remote forcing in the CCS on as well as fluctuations that appear related to along shelf seasonal to interannual scales. This information should advection of a patch of low oxygen. ensure that managers do not rely on local models for predictions of ocean circulation patterns. The group’s conclusions differ from those presented to the media for the Oregon case. Off Washington, In contrast to Oregon investigators, the group does not historical data indicate that hypoxia is not unique to believe the Washington data are sufficient to suggest recent years; off Oregon, historical data do not show global warming as a factor—the recent time base is too severe hypoxia on the inner shelf in the historical short to come to any specific conclusion when they record. The scientists noted that most of the historical know that have seen such events in the 1960’s. This Oregon data are from the Newport line, which is not in result suggests that hypoxia needs to be monitored well the area of greatest hypoxia. In contrast, Washington into the future to develop reliable trend information. historical data are most frequently from the region of maximum hypoxia in that state. Two papers are in the final stages of preparation, one on hypoxia, the other on large scale water properties In contrast to Oregon investigators, the team does not and their interannual variability. believe the Washington data is sufficient to suggest global warming as a factor—the recent time base is too short to come to any specific conclusion when they know that there have seen such events in the 1960’s.

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DART Data Inversion for Near Real-Time Estimation of Tsunami Amplitudes

PI Objectives Donald B. Percival The goal of this project is to estimate tsunami source amplitudes and to produce CIs for the true unknown Task III amplitudes. The estimation of the amplitudes must not only be reliable, but also use methods that allow them NOAA Primary Contact to be computed as rapidly as possible. The estimated Mike Hopkins, PMEL amplitudes are to be based upon fitting data collected in real-time by the DART buoys to a database of pre- NOAA Goal computed models for what these buoys would observe 3. Serve Society’s Need for Weather and Water from a magnitude 7.5 reverse thrust earthquake located Information within a unit source. Description Accomplishments NOAA has deployed a series of DART buoys (primarily The scientists transitioned their methodology for in the Pacific Ocean) for the purpose of directly estimating tsunami source amplitudes into NOAA’s measuring the start of a tsunami event, with the idea Short-term Forecast for Tsunamis (SIFT) tool. They of using these measurements to predict the impact of a documented the methodology in the following tsunami along U.S. coastal communities. The tsunamis report, which will be issued as a NOAA technical these buoys are designed to measure are generated by memorandum: earthquakes and landslides along known fault lines. While very large tsunami-generating events will lead to D.B. Percival, D. Arcas, D.W. Denbo, M.C. Eble, E. an immediate evacuation order, there is a need to assess Gica, H.O. Mofjeld, M.C. Spillane, L. Tang and V.V. the impact of moderate-sized events and to judiciously Titov (2008), `Extracting Tsunami Source Scaling issue evacuation orders, with the realization that false Factors via Inversion of DART Buoy Data’, 21 pages. alarms carry a cost to society. Since it is not possible to predict the impact of a tsunami perfectly, it is necessary Their methodology is also described in the following to use statistical methods to evaluate the possible technical report, which will form the basis for a paper impact of a tsunami. The most relevant statistical to be submitted to a referred journal: measure is a confidence interval (CI) that quantifies how large a tsunami event is likely to be when it reaches E. Gica, M.C. Spillane, D. Arcas, D.B. Percival and V.V. a coastal community. Such a CI necessarily depends Titov (2008), `Development of NOAA’s Short-term upon the uncertainty in the estimated tsunami source Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis (SIFT) and a Case amplitudes. Intermediate measures of interest are CIs Study of the 15 November 2006 Kuril Tsunami’, 31 for these source amplitudes. pages.

The team also developed methodology for simulating tsunami events for use in testing the SIFT tool. Finally, they began exploration of using the Kalman filter to detide the DART buoy data prior to using it in the inversion algorithm.

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An Acoustic Report from the Bering Sea: Wind Speed, Rainfall, Shipping and Other Sources of Underwater Sound

PI the Aleutian chain at Cold Bay, AK, (170 km from UW - Jeffrey A. Nystuen M2). Other sounds include ships and short transient NOAA - Sue Moore, Phyllis Stabeno tones. The PAL was designed to reject transients in the range important for quantification of wind speed Task III and rainfall, but serendipitously recorded peaks in the sound spectrum between 200 Hz and 3 kHz. Some of NOAA Primary Contact these tones are consistent with whale calls, but most are Sue Moore, PMEL apparently associated with mooring self-noise. NOAA Goal Introduction 1. Protect, Restore & Manage the Use of Coastal There are many ocean environments where the & Ocean Resources Through Ecosystem-based maintainance of surface moorings to monitor Management oceanographic processes is constrained by severe Abstract weather and remote locations. The Bering Sea is one such location. The Bering Sea supports the Ambient sound in the ocean contains quantifiable largest fishery in the US EEZ and is a location where information about the marine environment. A Passive climate change is likely to have a big impact on Aquatic Listener (PAL) was deployed at a long-term the ecosystem (Hunt et al. 2002). To monitor the mooring site (M2) in the southeastern Bering Sea physical environment, an array of moorings has been from 27 April through 28 September, 2004. This was a maintained by NOAA in the southeastern Bering Sea noisy mooring with lots of chain clanking. However, since 1995 (Stabeno et al. 2002). Augmenting these the sampling strategy of the PAL filtered through this moorings with passive acoustic sensors compliments noise and allowed the background sound field to be the suite of measurements of the physical environment, quantified for natural signals. Distinctive sounds and allows monitoring of surface conditions from include the sound from wind, drizzle and rain. These sub-surface moorings during all seasons. This latter sound sources dominate the sound budget and the capacity is especially important in high latitude sound intensity can be used to quantify wind speed regions where weather conditions are harsh, and and rainfall rate. The wind speed measurement has destroy surface-mounted equipment. Bering Sea an accuracy of ± 0.4 m/s when compared to a buoy- surface moorings are not maintained during the mounted anemometer. The rainfall rate measurement winter. Furthermore, passive acoustic sensors provide is consistent with a land-based measurement in capability to monitor sound-producing biological

The underwater acoustic record of a storm passing on August 5, 2004 (Year Day 218) at the M2 mooring in the Bering Sea. A period of calm is followed by drizzle, heavy rainfall and finally high winds as a strong atmospheric front crosses over the mooring location. [The colorized units for sound intensity are in decibels (dB) relative to 1 µPa2Hz-1.] 109 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

activities, including the detection and identification of properties of the marine environment in Alaskan important cetacean species (Moore et al. 2006). Passive waters (Figure 1). One of the moorings, Site 2 at aquatic listening instruments (PALs), used in this study, 56.87°N, 164.05°W, has been occupied regularly during are robust, proven for long-term deployment, relatively the past few years (Stabeno et al. 2002). During the inexpensive, and subsurface, avoiding the harsh summer of 2004, a Passive Aquatic Listener (PAL) was conditions at the surface (including vandalism!) (Ma deployed on the mooring. The data from this PAL and Nystuen, 2005). can be quantified to describe the marine environment.

In the frequency range from 200-50,000 Hertz, naturally generated sound at the sea surface is predominately produced by wind- driven breaking waves and precipitation. These physical processes generate sound principally through the production of bubbles during splashing at the ocean surface. And on the scale of individual bubbles, the sound is the resonant ring of newly formed individual bubbles within the splashes (Medwin and Beaky, 1989; Medwin et al. 1992). Because wind- driven breaking waves and raindrop splashes generate different distributions of Figure 1. The location of the Site 2 mooring (M2) is 56.87°N, 164.05°W on the continental shelf in water about 70m deep in the southeastern bubble sizes, the sound from breaking waves can be part of the Bering Sea. distinguished from the sound of precipitation. This allows each sound source to be identified and then Sound sources, including wind, rain, drizzle and quantitatively measured (Vagle et al. 1990; Nystuen shipping can be identified and quantified as a sound 2001; Ma and Nystuen 2005). budget. The acoustic signal from wind, drizzle and rain is used to quantify these physical processes. Beyond physical processes, there are many other Other transient sounds are also detected including sounds in the marine environment. Other important tones, whistles and bangs. Some of these sounds are sources of underwater sound include marine animal consistent with marine mammal vocalizations although populations, especially cetaceans. Knowledge of mooring self-noise was also reported. the activities and whereabouts of many marine mammal populations is important for conservation, Objectives and yet much of this information is unknown. By The objective of the project is to demonstrate using passive aquatic listening instruments, these quantitative assessment of the marine environment animals can be detected, even under conditions where using passive acoustic listening in the environment. visual observations are infrequent or impossible. In the frequency range from 1-25 kHz many natural Furthermore, PALs are passive, introducing no sound sounds are due to physical processes at the ocean into the environment themselves. surface including wind and precipitation. These features are often difficult to measure using instruments NOAA has an ongoing program known as Fisheries on surface moorings. To have the ability to make these Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) measurements from sub-surface locations will allow to monitor the biological, chemical and physical monitoring of the physical marine environment in

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remote and/or harsh locations where surface moorings Acoustic Data are not feasible or do not survive. The acoustic data reported here were collected on a Passive Aquatic Listener (PAL) (Figure 2). The PAL A second objective is to demonstrate that these is a low-noise low-duty cycle acoustic recorder. For measurements can be made from a low-duty cycle this deployment the PAL was designed to monitor acoustic recorder. While continuous recorders exist, the physical processes rather than detect and monitor they generate so much data that on-board or even post- marine mammals. The sounds generated from rain, deployment processing is problematic. drizzle or wind are generally stationary over a 15 A third objective is to assess the quality of the second time interval, whereas banging from ships or measurements. moorings, or chirps, whistles or clicks from biological sources are sound signals that usually are non- Experimental Setup stationary over a 15 second time interval. Thus, an The mooring at Site 2 (Figure 1) on the continental important preliminary evaluation of the sound source shelf in the southeastern Bering Sea is in water about is performed by comparing the four spectra from a 70m deep. A variety of physical oceanographic single data collection sequence. A non-stationary measurements are available, including vertical profiles signal between 3-15 kHz is rejected as noise, and of temperature, salinity and currents. Chemical another data collection sequence is collected. This measurements include fluorescence, nutrients and is the frequency band used to quantify wind speed water samples. Relatively frequent visits by biological (Vagle et al. 1990) and rainfall (Nystuen, 2001; Ma survey cruises identify the biota that is present. During and Nystuen 2005). Otherwise, the four spectra the summer season, meteorological measurements such are averaged into a single spectrum that is stored to as wind vector, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity memory for later analysis. and radiation are available from surface-mounted instruments. During the winter it is impossible to Data Analysis maintain a surface mooring because of the harsh The first component of using ambient sound to environment including high winds and the possibility investigate the environment is to identify the sound of sea ice. source. Figure 3 shows an eight-day section of data. This is a typical oceanic acoustic time series showing a slowing, changing background interspersed with short loud events. The background sound levels are closely correlated with wind speed and can be used to quantitatively measure wind speed (Vagle et al., 1990). The time scales of the shorter events, together with the spectral characteristics of the event, are used to identify the source of the sound. Events include rain, drizzle, ship passages and biological whistles and calls. Some examples of spectral signals are shown in Figure 4. A multivariate analysis is used to classify the sound source. For example, rainfall has relatively more high frequency energy than wind and, in contrast, ships typically have relatively more low frequency energy. Short loud bangs, whistles or animal calls also have unique spectra, but are often detected by their short duration.

Figure 2. A Passive Aquatic Listener (PAL) in its deployment cage. The hydrophone is at the top. It is physically 30” long and 6” in diameter and weighs 10 lb in water.

111 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Figure 3. A sample of the acoustic data recorded between JD 215 (Aug 2) and JD 223 (Aug 10). The top panel shows the integrated sound pressure. Different points have been identified using a multivariate analysis. Note the ship passages on Days 221 and 222. The bottom panel shows the geophysical interpretation (wind speed and rainfall rate) of the top panel. The wind speed is compared to the buoy wind anemometer.

Figure 4. Examples of sound spectra from different sources. The spectra from different wind speeds are shown. These are the mean spectra at different wind speeds from the entire deployment. Spectra from a drizzle on Day 141, rain on Day 136, a distant ship passage on Day 146 and clanking on Day 137 are labeled. The different spectral characteristics of these sounds allow them to be identified.

112 Coastal Oceanography

Once sound sources are identified, the sound intensity levels can be used to quantify wind speed and rainfall rate. Algorithms are given by:

Results The underwater ambient sound field contains instruments (continuous recorders) produce massive quantifiable information about the physical marine amounts of data that have proven difficult to analyze. environment. A low-duty cycle recording instrument, In other words, it is important to be able to subsample e.g. a PAL, can be used to access this information the environment to effectively use the underwater and provide useful measurements of wind speed and ambient sound. The PAL instrument will also detect rainfall rate. This is important as high-duty cycle ships, both distant and local, and can be modified to

Figure 5. A comparison of acoustic wind speed measurements with buoy anemometer wind speed measurement during May. The acoustic wind speed algorithm does not measure wind speeds less than 2.2 m/s as there is no signal (breaking waves) for such low wind speeds.

113 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Figure 6. The accumulation of rainfall during August and overall using Nystuen (2001) R2001 and Ma and Nystuen (2005) R2005. Data from Cold Bay, AK (170 km away) is also shown. Rcorr is the Ma and Nystuen algorithm corrected for contamination by wind noise. detect marine mammal calls (Nystuen et al. 2007). The clouds in the water column as predicted by Vagle et al. background ambient sound budget is easily obtained, (1990). This condition can be identified acoustically even when the mooring has a lot of self-noise (clanking and should be useful for predicting mixing of the upper of chains, etc.) by employing a sampling strategy that ocean by intense storms. Furthermore, a more accurate rejects short transient noises associated with chain wind speed estimate may be available by using a wind clanking and other mooring noises. speed algorithm based on a lower frequency, e.g. 2 or 5 kHz. The quantitative acoustic measurements of wind speed are highly correlated to the measured wind speed The qualitative detection of rainfall is based on an measurements for the buoy-mounted anemometer for understanding of the physics of sound production by wind speeds from 3-12 m/s (Figure 5). Below 3 m/s raindrop splashes (Medwin et al. 1992; Nystuen 2001). the acoustic measurement has no signal (no breaking Two types of precipitation are detected: drizzle and waves) and thus the distribution of wind speeds heavier rain containing large raindrops. These spectra below 3 m/s can not be obtained. However, the calm are observed in the data, indicating acoustic detection conditions (U ≤ 3 m/s) are identified and zero wind of drizzle, and light to moderate rainfall rates in stress on the ocean surface can be assumed. Above 12 moderate (~4-6 m/s) to high (~10-12 m/s) wind speed m/s, the wind speed algorithm using 8 kHz (Eqn 1) conditions. No intense downpours, such as observed in underestimates wind speed because of extensive bubble the tropical Pacific Ocean (Ma and Nystuen, 2005) were

Figure 7. Examples of transient sounds. These spectra are consistent with tones, whistles, clicks and banging. Left is a tone at 900 Hz; right is a tone at 2.8 kHz and a click at 30 kHz (consistent with killer whale calls and clicking).

114 Coastal Oceanography

detected, although the storm on August 5th (Figure References 3) had rainfall rates over 10 mm/hr. The quantitative Hunt, G.L., Jr., P. Stabeno. G. Walters, E. Sinclair, R.D. estimate of rainfall rate is potentially contaminated by Brodeur, J.M. Napp and N.A. Bond. 2002. Climate change background noise due to wind wave breaking, although and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic the role of rain to suppress wave breaking is not fully ecosystem. Deep-Sea Research II: 49(26): 5821-5854. understood. This contamination can be estimated and a corrected rainfall rate is then available. This reduces Ma, B.B. and J.A. Nystuen, 2005: “Passive Acoustic the rainfall accumulation estimate. While no ancillary Detection and Measurement of Rainfall at Sea”, J. Atmos. rainfall estimates were available on the mooring, and Oceanic Tech. 22, 1225-1248. comparison to a land-based weather station at Cold Bay, AK (170 km away) showed general agreement with Medwin H and Beaky MM, 1989: Bubble sources of the the acoustic rainfall accumulation statistics including Knudsen sea noise spectrum. J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 83, the detection of major storm events and overall 1124-1130. accumulations. (Figure 6) Medwin H, Nystuen JA, Jacobus PW, Ostwald LH and One interesting transient sound is that of marine Synder DE. 1992: The anatomy of underwater rain noise. mammals calling or echolocating. This is a signal J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 92, 1613-1623. that identifies the presence of these groups of animals and such detection is important for identifying and Moore, S.E., K.M. Stafford, D.K. Mellinger and J.A. censoring their populations (Moore et al. 2006). The Hildebrand, 2006. Listening for large whales in the filtering strategy of the PAL for this deployment filtered offshore waters of Alaska. BioScience 56, 49-55. out calls in the frequency range from 3-15 kHz. This frequency range eliminated most killer whale calls, Nystuen, J.A., 1990 “A Note on the Attenuation of Surface a species known to occur in the southeastern Bering Gravity Waves by Rainfall”, J. Geophys. Res. 95, 18353- Sea. However, the sampling strategy did allow peaks 18355. (tones) in the spectra below 3 kHz to be recorded (Figure 7). The distribution of these peaks in frequency Nystuen JA. 2001: Listening to raindrops from is consistent with humpback whale calls at 900 Hz underwater: An acoustic disdrometer. J. Atmos. and and killer whale calls at 2.8 kHz. Indeed, several Oceanic Tech. 18, 1640-1657. killer whale calls were verified on Day 179. However, the continuous recordings also revealed ubiquitous Nystuen, J.A., E. Amitai, E.N. Anagnostou and M.N. mooring noise – chain clanking, and so the verification Anagnostou, 2008: “Spatial Averaging of Oceanic Rainfall of the transient tones within the PAL data record is Variability using Underwater Sound: Ionian Sea Rainfall uncertain. Using a different sampling strategy, PALs Experiment 2004”, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 123, 1952-1962. have proven successful at detecting killer whales (Nystuen et al. 2007). Nystuen, J.A., M.B. Hanson and C. Emmons, 2007: “Listening for killer whales in the coastal waters of the The sound budget for the southeastern Bering Sea was NE Pacific Ocean”, nd2 International Underwater Acoustic calculated. It showed that wind-only sound dominated Measurements Conference, Heraklion, Crete, June 2007. 93 % of the time, with rainfall and drizzle present 4.7 % and 1.5 % of the time, respectively. Shipping was Nystuen, J.A. and B.M. Howe, 2005, “Ambient Sound only present 0.4 % of the time, but vessel noises are the Budgets”, Proceedings of the Underwater Acoustic loudest events when the sound intensity is integrated Measurements Conference, Heraklion, Crete, Jun 28-July. over the full frequency spectrum. The mean rain signal was roughly twice as loud (3 dB) than wind overall, Stabeno, P.J. and G.L. Hunt, Jr. 2002: Overview of the and especially at the higher frequencies, e.g. 20 kHz, Inner Front and Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity where small raindrops produce sound underwater. In Programs. Deep-Sea Research II: 49(26), 6157–6168. fact, at 20 kHz rain is louder than “distant” shipping. However, the approach of a ship to close range, e.g. Vagle S, Large WG and Farmer DM. 1990: An evaluation the R/V McArthur in August, shows that “close” of the WOTAN technique for inferring oceanic wind shipping is responsible for the loudest sound levels at from underwater sound. J. Atmos. and Ocean. Tech. 7, all frequencies. 576-595. 115 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

116 Appendices

Appendices

117 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Appendix 1

JISAO Senior Fellows and Council Members* Thompson, LuAnne, Associate Professor, Oceanography, Interim Director, PCC University of Washington Untersteiner, Norbert, Professor Emeritus, Atmospheric Aagaard, Knut, Professor, Oceanography, Principal Sciences Oceanographer, Applied Physics Lab Wallace, John M. Professor, Atmospheric Sciences *Ackerman, Thomas, Professor, Atmospheric Sciences, Director, JISAO NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Lab Armstrong, David, Professor, Director, Aquatic and Fishery Sciences Baker, Edward T., Supervisory Oceanographer, Ocean Battisti, David S., Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Environment Research Division, Affiliate Associate Bretherton, Chris, Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Professor, Oceanography and Applied Mathematics, Director, Program on Bates, Timothy S., Research Chemist, Ocean Climate Climate Change. Research Division, Affiliate Associate Professor, Cannon, Glenn A., Affiliate Professor, Oceanography Oceanography Charlson, Robert J., Professor Emeritus, Atmospheric Bullister, John, (JISAO Fellow) Oceanographer, Ocean Sciences Climate Research Division, Affiliate Associate Professor, Oceanography Covert, David S., Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Cronin, Meghan, Oceanographer, Ocean Climate Research Division, Affiliate Associate Professor, Emerson, Steven R., Professor, Oceanography Oceanography Eriksen, Charles C., Professor, Oceanography *Feely, Richard A., Supervisory Oceanographer, Ocean Fleagle, Robert G., Professor Emeritus, Atmospheric Climate Research Division, Affiliate Professor, Sciences Oceanography Fu, Qiang, Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Harrison, D.E., Oceanographer, Ocean Climate Research Gammon, Richard H., Professor, Oceanography and Division, Affiliate Professor, Oceanography Chemistry *Johnson, Gregory C., Oceanographer, Ocean Climate *Hartmann, Dennis L., Professor and Chair, Research Division, Affiliate Professor, Oceanography Atmospheric Sciences Kessler, William S., Oceanographer, Ocean Climate Jaegle, Lyatt, (JISAO Fellow) Assistant Professor, Research Division, Affiliate Professor, Oceanography Atmospheric Sciences McPhaden, Michael J. Senior Research Scientist, Ocean Jaffe, Dan, Professor, Interdisciplinary Arts & Sciences, Climate Research Division, Affiliate Professor, Adjunct Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Oceanography Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Professor, Civil and *Moore, Dennis W., Leader, Ocean Climate Research Environmental Engineering Division, Affiliate Professor, Oceanography Manuta, Nathan, Associate Professor WOT, Aquatic and Overland, James E., Division Leader, Coastal and Arctic Fishery Sciences Research Division, Affiliate Professor, Atmospheric McDuff, Russell, Professor, Director, Oceanography Sciences *Miles, Edward l., Professor, School of Marine Affairs Quinn, Patricia K., Research Chemist, Ocean Climate Research Division Mofjeld, Harold, Affiliate Professor, Oceanography Sabine, Christopher, Oceanographer, Ocean Climate Murray, James W., Professor, Oceanography Research Division *Punt, Andre E. Associate Professor, Aquatic and Stabeno, Phyllis, Supervisory Oceanographer, Ocean Fishery Sciences Climate Research Division. Quay, Paul D., Professor, Oceanography Rhines, Peter B., Professor, Oceanography 118 Appendices

Appendix 2

Task I Events and Visitors January 30, 2008 Ron Sims, King County Executive, “Shared September 12, 2007 prosperity in an age of global warming: King William Reeburgh, Professor at University of County’s vision for an equitable clean energy California, Irvine. “Atmospheric Methane: How economy.” well can we apportion present sources and predict future changes.” March 5, 2008 Konrad Steffen, Director of CIRES, University Scott Saleska, Assistant Professor at University of of Colorado, “Cryospheric response to climate Arizona, “Climate Impacts Ecosystems, Ecosystems change.” Impact Climate: carbon cycle-climate feedbacks from the Rocky Mountains to the Amazon.” April 1, 2008

Jonathan T. Overpeck, Director, Institute for October 12, 2007 the Study of Plant Earth, University of Arizona, Matthew Newman, Research Scientist, University “Climate change, sea level, and western drought: of Colorado, “Interannual to decadal predictability Dangerous anthropogenic interference?” of tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperatures.” June 13, 2008 Andreas Muhlbauer, Institute for Atmospheric October 24, 2007 and Climate Science, Switzerland, “Aerosol-cloud- Vernon Morris, Interim Chair of Chemistry, precipitation interactions in moist orographic Howard University, “The NCAS Aerosol Research flows.” Program with Emphasis on the Saharan Dust Aerosols and Oceanographic Science Expeditions June 16 – August 5, 2008 (AEROSE).” Angel F. Adames Corraliza, undergraduate research intern, cosponsored by NCAS/ Howard University. October 25, 2007 Everette Joseph, Research Scientist, Howard June 23, 2008 University, “The Beltsville Atmospheric Measurements Program.” Juzhi Hou, Brown University, “Reconstructing past continental climate using D/H ratios of biomarkers from lake sediments.” November 8, 2007 Vladimir Alexeev, Research Scientist, University June 26, 2008 of Alaska Fairbanks, “Atmospheric heat transport feedbacks affecting polar amplification.” Geun-Ha Park, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Korea, “Oceanic uptake of fossil-fuel carbon: Distribution and uptake rate change.” November 13, 2007 June 27, 2008 Chris Marten, University of North Carolina, Martin Vancoppenolle, Universite Catholique de “Radon and stable carbon isotope tracing of Louvain, Belgian, “Mass balance, salinity of the gas sources and exchange rates in the Brazilian polar sea ice caps and perspectives for ecosystem Amazonia” modeling.”

119 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Appendix 3

JISAO Employees Supported By Task II Projects

Name Title Name Title

A’Hearn, Patrick N...... Research Consultant Musielewicz, Sylvia Barry...... Research Scientist Arcas, Diego Rodriguez...... Research Scientist Nakamura, Tracey E...... Web Comp Specialist Arcos, Nicolas P...... Research Scientist Newman, Jean...... Research Scientist Bond, Nicholas A...... Research Scientist Noor, Sonya M...... Research Consultant Buck, Nathaniel...... Research Scientist O’Brien, Kevin...... Research Scientist Burwell, David...... Project Appointment Olson, Eric J...... Research Scientist Butterfield, David A...... Research Scientist Osborne, John Richard...... Research Scientist Carson, Mark L...... Research Associate Peacock, Cynthia G...... Research Scientist Chamberlin, Christopher...... Research Scientist Pells, Clinton K...... Research Scientist Cheng, Wei...... Research Scientist Proctor, Peter D...... Research Scientist Chiodi, Andrew M...... Research Scientist Purkey, Sarah Michelle...... Research Scientist Chung, Jin Wook...... Research Associate Resing, Joseph A...... Research Scientist Covert, Paul A...... Research Scientist Righi, Dylan D...... Research Scientist Denbo, Donald W...... Research Scientist Roe, Kevin K...... Research Scientist Doherty, Sarah J...... Research Scientist Ronnholm, Keith...... Research Scientist Dougherty, Daniel M...... Research Consultant Shank, Lindsey M...... Project Appointment Engstfeld, Amanda...... Student Assistant Sonnerup, Rolf E...... Research Scientist Fagan, Kathryn E...... Research Associate Spillane, Michael C...... Research Scientist Fassbender, Andrea J...... Limited Term Stefanova, Natalia I...... Research Assistant Fey, Curran W...... Research Consultant Stratton, Linda...... Research Scientist Foltz, Gregory...... Research Scientist Sullivan, Margaret E...... Research Scientist Gica, Edison...... Research Scientist Tang, Liujuan...... Research Scientist Hamilton, Drew C...... Research Scientist Titov, Vasily...... Research Scientist Hoyle, Catherine A...... Limited Term Tolkova, Elena...... Research Scientist Jenkins, Antonio...... Research Scientist Traum, Michael Arthur...... Research Scientist Johnson, James E...... Research Scientist Uslu, Burak...... Research Scientist Kachel, Nancy B...... Research Scientist Venturato, Angie J...... Research Scientist Lebon, Geoffrey T...... Research Scientist Wang, Muyin...... Research Scientist Malczyk, Jeremy T...... Research Scientist Wei, Yong...... Research Scientist Martin, Maria E...... Research Associate Weiss, Robert...... Visiting Scientist McClurg, Dai C...... Research Scientist Wood, Kevin R...... Research Scientist Menzia, Frederick...... Research Scientist Zhang, Dongxiao...... Research Scientist Merati, Nazila...... Research Scientist Zhang, Xuebin...... Project Appointment Moon, Sookmi...... Research Scientist Zhu, Hui Willa...... Research Consultant Moore, Christopher W...... Research Scientist Zimmerman, David K...... Research Scientist Mordy, Calvin W...... Research Scientist

120 Appendices

Appendix 4

Task III Personnel/PIs

Task III Personnel/PIs PI Academic Unit Title of Project Funding U.S.-GLOBEC NEP III-b CGOA: Modeling the Effects of Spatial- David Temporal Environmental Variability on Stage-Specific Growth Beauchamp SAFS and Survival of Pink Salmon $181,601 Investigations of the Trophic Pathways & Spatial Variations of Tim Mercury Concentrations in Yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) & Essington SAFS Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus Obesus) in the Central N. Pacific $42,984

Analyzing Tropospheric Temperature Trends Using MSU Qiang Fu Atmos Sci Observations: Global and Regional Distributions $69,968 Developing recruitment forecasts for age-structured flatfish stock Albert assessments in the eastern Bering Sea based on models of larval Hermann JISAO dispersal $22,730 Collaborative: US-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIa-CCS: Latitudinal Barbara variation of upwelling, retention, nutrient supply and freshwater Hickey Oceanography effects in the California Current System $55,726

John Horne SAFS Fisheries Acoustic Research $90,086

John Horne SAFS Beaufort Sea pelagic fish acoustic survey $18,139

Jessica Distributions of rain vs. snow: Combining sensors and models for Lundquist CEE better flood forecasting in the American River Basin, California $178,322

Cliff Mass Atmos Sci Improvement of Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction $124,200

Bruce Miller SAFS Biological Interactions in the North Pacific - Fish Interactions Task $238,509

Jeffrey Nystuen APL An Acoustic Report from the Bering Sea $25,800

Jerome Implementation of Satellite-Derived Products at the Ocean Patoux Atmos Sci Prediction Center $34,999

Donald DART Data Inversion and Detiding for Near Real- Percival APL Time Estimates of Tsunami Amplitudes $40,000

121 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

PI Academic Unit Title of Project Funding

Andre Punt SAFS West Coast Groundfish Stock Assessment $111,051

Surface ocean 13C/12C measurements: A tracer of anthropogenic Paul Quay Oceanography CO2 uptake Program Element: Global Carbon Cycle (CCC) $87,981

Forecasting the Condition of Sea Ice on Weekly to Seasonal Time Ignatius Rigor APL Scales $131,004

International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) – Monitoring the Ignatius Rigor APL Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean $50,000

The Argo Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding Steve Riser Oceanography and Prediction of Climate Variability $2,696,765

Edward Sarachik JISAO Simulation of the ARGO Observing System $60,000

Edward Sarachik JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System $1,360,000

Bowhead Whale Feeding in the Western Beaufort Sea: Passive Kate Stafford APL Acoustic Survey Component $25,886

David UW Educational Participant Costs for Certificate Program in Tsunami Science and Szatmary Outreach Preparedness $34,875

122 Appendices

Appendix 5

Projects by Task

Task # PI Funding Title of Project

Thomas I/II Ackerman $6,510,136 Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean: Tasks I & II

Thomas II Ackerman $289,030 Emergency Response Division

Thomas II Ackerman $113,207 Graduate Research Assistantships in Marine Ecosystems Studies

Thomas II Ackerman $6,204 Larval Snow Crab Transport and Survival in the Bering Sea

Thomas II Ackerman $61,286 Marine Carbon Program

Nicholas Climate, Fisheries, and Ecosystems: Data Quality, Management and II Bond $107,714 Dissemination Investigation of Links Between the Early Life History Dynamics of Nicholas Fish Species and Climate/Ocean Conditions in the Gulf of Alaska and II Bond $92,119 Southeast Bering Sea

Nicholas Management Strategy Evaluations as a Tool to Estimate Climate Impacts II Bond $10,510 on Fisheries U.S.-GLOBEC NEP III-b CGOA: Modeling the Effects of Spatial- David Temporal Environmental Variability on Stage-Specific Growth and III Beauchamp $181,601 Survival of Pink Salmon Investigations of the Trophic Pathways & Spatial Variations of Mercury Tim Concentrations in Yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) & Bigeye Tuna III Essington $42,984 (Thunnus Obesus) in the Central N. Pacific

Analyzing Tropospheric Temperature Trends Using MSU Observations: III Qiang Fu $69,968 Global and Regional Distributions

Albert Developing recruitment forecasts for age-structured flatfish stock III Hermann $22,730 assessments in the eastern Bering Sea based on models of larval dispersal Collaborative: US-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIa-CCS: Latitudinal variation Barbara of upwelling, retention, nutrient supply and freshwater effects in the III Hickey $55,726 California Current System

123 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Task # PI Funding Title of Project

III John Horne $18,139 Beaufort Sea pelagic fish acoustic survey

III John Horne $90,086 Fisheries Acoustic Research

Jessica Distributions of rain vs. snow: Combining sensors and models for better III Lundquist $178,322 flood forecasting in the American River Basin, California

III Cliff Mass $124,200 Improvement of Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction

III Bruce Miller $238,509 Biological Interactions in the North Pacific - Fish Interactions Task

Jeffrey III Nystuen $25,800 An Acoustic Report from the Bering Sea

Jerome Implementation of Satellite-Derived Products at the Ocean Prediction III Patoux $34,999 Center

Donald DART data inversion and Detiding for Near Real- III Percival $40,000 Time Estimates of Tsunami Amplitudes

III Andre Punt $111,051 West Coast Groundfish Stock Assessment

Surface ocean 13C/12C measurements: A tracer of anthropogenic CO2 III Paul Quay $87,981 uptake Program Element: Global Carbon Cycle (CCC)

Ignatius III Rigor $131,004 Forecasting the Condition of Sea Ice on Weekly to Seasonal Time Scales

Ignatius International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) – Monitoring the Eurasian III Rigor $50,000 Basin of the Arctic Ocean

The Argo Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and III Steve Riser $2,696,765 Prediction of Climate Variability

Edward III Sarachik $1,360,000 Center for Science in the Earth System

124 Appendices

Task # PI Funding Title of Project

Edward III Sarachik $60,000 Simulation of the ARGO Observing System

Bowhead Whale Feeding in the Western Beaufort Sea: Passive Acoustic III Kate Stafford $25,886 Survey Component

David Participant Costs for Certificate Program in Tsunami Science and III Szatmary $34,875 Preparedness

125 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Appendix 6

Employee/Personnel Count

Category Number B.S. M.S. Ph.D. Faculty 3 3 Research Scientist 66 10 11 45 Visiting Scientist 9 1 8 Postdoctoral Fellow** 5 5 Research Support Staff 2 2 Administrative 2 1 1 Total (> or = 50%) 84 13 13 58 Undergraduate Students 1 Graduate Students 15 Employees receiving less than 50% NOAA support 84

Located at Lab 12 Obtained NOAA employment within the last year 1

**2 additional Post Docs received less than 50% support

126 Appendices

Appendix 7

Graduate Students

Student Name Academic Department Degree Degree Supervisor

A’Mar, Z Teresa Quant Ecol Res Management Ph.D. Andre Punt

Beyene, Tazebe Kiros Civil and Environmental Engineering Ph.D. Dennis Lettenmaier

Carson, Mark L. School of Oceanography Ph.D. Ed Harrison

Chung, Jin Wook Civil and Environmental Engineering Ph.D. Stephen Muench

Connolly, Thomas P. School of Oceanography Ph.D. Barbara Hickey

Fagan, Kathryn E. School of Oceanography Ph.D. Richard Feely

Ferriss, Bridget E. School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences Ph.D. Tim Essington

Gwozdz, Richard B College of Forest Resources Ph.D. Donald McKenzie

Johanson, Celeste M. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Ph.D. Qiang Fu

Martin, Maria E Earth and Space Sciences Ph.D. Joanne Bourgeois

Purkey, Sarah School of Oceanography Ph.D. Gregory Johnson

Raleigh, Mark S. Civil and Environmental Engineering M.S. Jessica Lundquist

Rand, Kimberly School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences M.S. Vincent Gallucci

Raymond, Crystal L College if Forest Resources Ph.D. Don McKenzie

Ren, Li School of Oceanography Ph.D. Steve Riser

Reum, Jonathan School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences Ph.D. Tim Essington

Rogers, Alison L. School of Oceanography Ph.D. Steve Riser

Steed, Richard Department of Atmospheric Sciences Ph.D. Cliff Mass

Stefanova, Natalia I. School of Oceanography Ph.D. Michael McPhaden

Williams, Eleanor E. School of Oceanography Ph.D. Charlie Eriksen

Wolcott, Reid A. Department of Atmospheric Sciences M.S. Gregory Hakim

Zhang, Xuebin* School of Oceanography Ph.D. Michael McPhaden

* Graduated this year

127 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Appendix 8

Post-Doctoral Research Associates

Ancell, Brian C.

Athanasiadis, Panagiotis

Boldt, Jennifer L *

Carre, Matthieu

Gorgues, Thomas

Hastings, Meredith

Lan, Cuo*

Mazur, Michael M.

Munoz-Arriola, Francis*

Tang, Qiuhong*

Taylor, Ian G*

Zhang, Xuebin*

* Received less than 50% support from JISAO

128 Appendices

Appendix 9

Awards and Honors 2007-2008 Hartmann, Dennis, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 2007 Change.

Baker, Edward, Senior Fellow, received an Jaegle, Lyatt, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel- “Outstanding Scientific Paper” Award from NOAA Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. for publishing an outstanding scientific peer-reviewed research paper. Johnson, Gregory, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Bates, Timothy, Senior Fellow, elected AGU Fellow. Change. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Kessler, William, Senior Fellow, received the AGU Award “Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing” Bretherton, Christopher, Senior Fellow. Contributor in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Lebon, Geoff, received an “Outstanding Scientific Paper” Award from NOAA for publishing an Butterfield, David, research scientist, received an outstanding scientific peer-reviewed research paper “Outstanding Scientific Paper” Award from NOAA for publishing an outstanding scientific peer-reviewed Lettenmaier, Dennis, Senior Fellow, appointed research paper. American Association for the Advancement of Science Fellow. Charlson, Robert, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate McPhaden, Michael, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Change. Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Emerson, Steven, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Miles, Edward, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Change. Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Feely, Richard A., Senior Fellow, elected AGU Fellow for his work on ocean acidification and anthropogenic Mitchell, Todd, research scientist. Contributor to the carbon in the ocean. Contributor to the Nobel- Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Change.

Fleagle, Robert, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Mote, Philip, research scientist. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Change.

Fu, Qiang, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel- Peterson, David L, research scientist. Contributor Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Harrison, D. E., Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Resing, Joseph, research scientist, received an Change. “Outstanding Scientific Paper” Award from NOAA for publishing an outstanding scientific peer-reviewed research paper.

129 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Rhines, Peter, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel- 2008 Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bahl, Kimberly, research consultant, selected by the Sabine, Christopher, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the NOAA Fisheries Service for NOAA Team Member of Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate the Month for January 2008. Change. Beauchamp, D.A., Fulbright Scholar to Argentina Salathe, Eric, research scientist. Contributor to the March-May 2009, Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Worthington Endowed Professor 2008-2013 Change. Lettenmaier, Dennis, Senior Fellow, President-elect of Sarachik, Edward, research scientist. Contributor the American Geophysical Union hydrology section to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Lundquist, Jessica, nominated for a 2008 College of Engineering Community of Innovators Award for Thompson, LuAnne, Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Teaching Excellence. Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Miles, Edward, Senior Fellow, elected to the Board of Directors of the Union of Concerned Scientists. Wallace, Michael J., Senior Fellow. Contributor to the Nobel-Winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Mote, Philip, research scientist, recipient of a UW Change. Distinguished Staff Award.

130 Appendices

Appendix 10

Publications Count

Joint Inst Lead Author

FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07

Peer-reviewed 27 43 33 73 99 105 113

Non-peer reviewed 23 30 15 9 19 11 22

Totals 50 73 48 82 118 116 135

NOAA Lead Author

FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07

Peer-reviewed 21 35 61 22 70 30 44

Non-peer reviewed 16 10 21 0 3 9 0

Totals 37 45 82 22 73 39 44

Other Lead Author

FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07

Peer-reviewed * * * 90 79 84 93

Non-peer reviewed * * * 6 5 5 11

Totals * * * 96 84 89 104

Totals FY 01 - 07

Peer-reviewed 872 + 250 = 1122

Non-peer reviewed 182 + 33 = 215

Totals 1054 + 283 = 1337

* Data not available

131 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

Appendix 11

Publications 6. Bahlburg, H. & Weiss, R.. 2007. Sedimen- tology of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra July 2007 - June 2008 - JISAO Publications Tsunami deposits in intermediate and large (Reported as Published) distances, Eastern India (Tamil Nadu) and Kenya. International Journal of Earth Sciences. 1. Alemu, E., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Techni- DOI: 10.1007/s00531-006-0148-9. cal Memorandum #7: Impacts of Climate Change on Cloud Cover in the Puget Sound 7. Baker, E.T., R.W. Embley, S.L. Walker, J.A. Region. A report prepared by the Climate Resing, J.L. Lupton, K.-I. Nakamura, C.E.J. de Change Technical Subcommittee of the Ronde, and G.J. Massoth. 2008. Hydrothermal Regional Water Supply Planning Process, activity and volcano distribution along the Seattle, WA. Mariana Arc. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, B08S09, doi: 10.1029/2007JB005423. 2. Alexander, D., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #8: Impacts of Cli- 8. Battin, J., Wiley, M.W., Ruckelshaus, M.H., mate Change on Groundwater Resources- A Palmer, R.N., Korb, E., Bartz, K.K., and Imaki, Literature Review. A report prepared by the H. 2007. Projected impacts of future climate Climate Change Technical Subcommittee change on slamon habitat restoration ac- of the Regional Water Supply Planning tions in a Puget Sound river. Proceedings of Process, Seattle, WA. the National Academy of Sciences, 104(16): 6720–6725. 3. Alexander, D., R.N. Palmer, and A. Polebitski. 2007. Technical Memorandum 9. Barnett, T., D.W. Pierce, H. Hidalgo, C. Bon- #1: Literature Review of Research Incorpo- fils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. rating Climate Change into Water Resources Nazawa, A, Mirin, D. Cayan, and M. Dettinger. Planning. A report prepared by the Cli- 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrol- mate Change Technical Subcommittee ogy of the western United States. Science Sci- of the Regional Water Supply Planning ence Express Reports 10.1126/science.1152538. Process, Seattle, WA. 10. Beauchamp, D.A., A.D. Cross, and J.H. Moss. 4. Anderson, C.I.H., J.K. Horne, and J. 2007. Inter-annual patterns in stage-specific Boyle. 2007. Applying a robust proba- feeding, growth, and survival of juvenile pink bilistic classification technique to multi- salmon in the Gulf of Alaska. Second Interna- frequency fisheries acoustics data. (DOI: tional Workshop on Factors Affecting Produc- 10.1121/1.2731016) Journal of the Acousti- tion of Juvenile Salmon: Survival Strategy of cal Society of America 121: EL230-EL237. Asian and North American Juvenile Salmon in the Ocean. North Pacific Anadromous Fish 5. Arcas, D., A.J. Venturato, V.V. Titov, H.O. Commission. Technical Report 7:56-58. Mofjeld, C.C. Chamberlin, and F.I. Gonza- lez. 2007. Tacoma, Washington tsunami 11. Beauchamp, D.A., A.D. Cross, J. Armstrong, hazard mapping project: Modeling tsu- K.W. Myers, J.H. Moss, J.L. Boldt, and L.J. nami inundation from Tacoma and Seattle Haldorson. 2007. Bioenergetic Responses by fault earthquakes. NOAA Technical Memo, Pacific Salmon to Climate and Ecosystem OAR PMEL-132, 23pp. Variation. North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission Bulletin 4:257-268. 12. Berelson, W.M., W.M. Balch, R. Najjar, R.A. Feely, C. Sabine, and K. Lee. 2007. Relating

estimates of CaCO3 production, export, and

132 Appendices

dissolution in the water column to measure- 20. Brodeur, R.D., M.B. Decker, L. Ciannelli, J.E.

ments of CaCO3 rain into sediment traps and Purcell, N.A. Bond, P.J. Stabeno, E. Acuna, and dissolution on the sea floor: A revised global G.L. Hunt, Jr. 2008. Rise and fall of jellyfish in carbonate budget. Global Biogeochemical Cy- the eastern Bering Sea in relation to climate cles, 21, GB1024, doi: 10.1029/2006GB002803. regime shifts. Progress in Oceanography, 77, 13. Bergstrom, R.W., P. Pilewskie, P.B. Russell, 103–111. J. Redemann, T.C. Bond, P.K. Quinn, and B. 21. Bullister, J.L., and D.P. Wisegarver. 2008. The Sierau. 2007. Spectral absorption properties of shipboard analysis of trace levels of sulfur atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric Chemistry hexafluoride, chlorofluorocarbon-11 and and Physics Discussions, 7, 10669–10686, SRef- chlorofluorocarbon-12 in seawater. Deep-Sea ID: 1680-7375/acpd/2007-7-10669. Research I, 55, 1063–1074. 14. Bernard, E.N., L. Dengler, and S. Yim. 2007. 22. Burgos, J.M. and J.K. Horne. 2007. Sensitivity National Tsunami Research Plan: Report of a analysis and parameter selection for detecting workshop sponsored by NSF/NOAA. NOAA aggregations in acoustic data. ICES Journal of Tech. Memo, OAR PMEL-133, 135 pp. Marine Science 64: 160-168. 15. Bernard, E.N. 2007. Modeling the December 23. Burwell, D. and E. Tolkova. 2008. Curvilinear 26, 2004, Sumatra Tsunami. In: An Introduc- version of the most model with application to tion to the World’s Oceans, Sverdrup, K.A., and the coast-wide tsunami forecast. NOAA Tech- E.V. Armbrust (eds.), 9th Edition, Chapter 10, nical Memo, OAR PMEL-142, 28 pp. The Waves, McGraw Hill, 266–268. 24. Burwen, D.L., P.A. Nealson, S.J. Fleischman, 16. Bernard, E.N., and V.V. Titov. 2007. Improving T.J. Mulligan, and J.K. Horne. 2007. Com- tsunami forecast skill using deep ocean ob- plexity of narrowband echo-envelopes as a servations. Marine Technology Society Journal, function of fish orientation. ICES Journal of 40(3), 23–26. Marine Science 64: 1066-1074, doi: 10.1093/ 17. Birdsey, R.A., R. Cook, S. Denning, P. Grif- icesjms/fsm074). fith, B.E. Law, J. Masek, A.M. Michalak, S. 25. Caldeira, K., D. Archer, J.P. Barry, R.G.J. Ogle, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, C.L. Sabine, E. Shef- Bellerby, P.G. Brewer, L. Cao, A.G. Dickson, fner, and E.T. Sundquist. 2007. Investigators S.C. Doney, H. Elderfield, V.J. Fabry, R.A. share improved understanding of the North Feely, J.-P. Gattuso, P.M. Haugan, O. Hoegh- American Carbon Cycle. Eos, Transactions, Guldberg, A.K. Jain, J.A. Kleypas, C. Langdon, American Geophysical Union, 88(24), doi: J.C. Orr, A. Ridgwell, C.L. Sabine, B.A. Seibel, 10.1029/2007EO240004. Y. Shirayama, C. Turley, A.J. Watson, and 18. Boldt, J.L. (Editor and contributor.) 2007. Eco- R.E. Zeebe. 2007. Comment on “Modern-age buildup of CO and its effects on seawater system Considerations for 2008. Appendix C of 2 the BSAI/GOA Stock Assessment and Fishery acidity and salinity” by Hugo A. Loáiciga. Evaluation Reports. North Pacific Fishery Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18608, doi: Management Council, 605 W. 4th Ave., Suite 10.1029/2006GL027288. 306, Anchorage, AK 99501. 26. Carney, S.L., J.F. Flores, K.M. Orobona, D.A. 19. Borrero, J., B. Uslu, C. Synolakis, and V.V. Butterfield,, C.R. Fisher, and S.W. Schaeffer. Titov. 2007. Modeling far-field tsunamis for 2007. Environmental differences in hemoglo- California ports and harbors. In: Coastal bin gene expression in the hydrothermal vent Engineering 2006—Proceedings of the 30th tubeworm, (Ridgeia piscesae). Comparative International Conference, San Diego, CA, 3–8 Biochemistry and Physiology - Part B, 146(2), December 2006, 1566–1578. 326–337.

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27. Carson, M., and D.E. Harrison. 2008. Is the 35. Cooper, D. W., K. E. Pearson, D. R. Gunder- upper ocean warming? Comparisons of 50- son. 2007. Annual Fecundity and an Indirect year trends from different analyses. Journal of Estimate of Natural Mortality Rate for Rein- Climate, 21(10), 2259–2268. hardtius hippoglossoides (Greenland Turbot 28. Case, M.J., and D.L. Peterson. 2007. Growth- or Greenland Halibut) Fishery Bulletin, 105: climate relations of Lodgepole Pine in the 296-304. North Cascades National Park, Washington. 36. Cross, A.D., D.A. Beauchamp, K.W. Myers Northwest Science 81(1):62-75. and J.H. Moss. 2008. Early marine growth of 29. Cherniawsky, J.Y., V.V. Titov, K. Wang, and J.- pink salmon in Prince William Sound and the Y. Li. 2007. Numerical Simulations of Tsunami coastal Gulf of Alaska during years of low and Waves and Currents for Southern Vancouver high survival. Transactions of the American Island from a Cascadia Megathrust Earth- Fisheries Society, 137:927-939. quake. Pure applied geophysics, 164, 465-495. 37. Crozier, L.G., A.P. Hendry, P.W. Lawson, T.P. 30. Chiodi, A.M., and D.E. Harrison. 2008. Char- Quinn, N.J. Mantua, J. Battin, R.G. Shaw, and acterizing the interannual variability of the R.B. Huey. 2008a. Potential responses to cli- equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective. NOAA mate change for organisms with complex life Technical Memorandum, OAR PMEL-140, histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific Seattle, WA, 30 pp. salmon. Evolutionary Applications 2: 252–270, doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00033.x. 31. Chiodi, A.M., and D.E. Harrison. 2007. Mechanisms of summertime subtropical 38. Crozier, L.G., R.W. Zabel, and A.F. Hamlet. Southern Indian Ocean sea surface tempera- 2008b. Predicting differential effects of climate ture variability: On the importance of humid- change at the population level with life-cycle ity anomalies and the meridional advection models of spring Chinook salmon. Global of water vapor. Journal of Climate, 20(19), Change Biology 14(2): 236–249, doi:10.1111/ 4835–4852. j.1365-2486.2007.01497.x. 32. Climate Impacts Group 2007. HB 1303 In- 39. Cushman, S.C., D. McKenzie, D.L. Peterson, terim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of J.S. Littell, and K.S. McKelvey. 2007. Research the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling. Washington. Report prepared by the Climate General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-194. Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agricul- Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of ture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Station. Washington, Seattle, Washington. 40. Danchenkov, M., V. Lobanov, S. Riser, K. Kim, 33. Clemente-Colón, P. and W.G. Pichel. 2007. and J-H Yoon. 2007. A history of the physical Remote Sensing of Marine Pollution, Remote oceanography of the Japan/East Sea. Ocean- Sensing of the Marine Environment. J. Gower ography, 19, 18-31. (Editor), Manual of Remote Sensing, Third 41. de Gouw, J.A., C.A. Brock, E.L. Atlas, T.S. Edition, v. 6, A. N. Rencz, Editor-in-Chief, Bates, F.C. Fehsenfeld, P.D. Goldan, J.S. Hol- ASPRS, ISBN 1-57083-080-0. loway, W.C. Kuster, B.M. Lerner, B.M. Mat- 34. Colman, R., W. Collins, J. Haywood, M. Man- thew, A.M. Middlebrook, T.B. Onasch, R.E. ning, and P.W. Mote. 2007. The physical sci- Peltier, P.K. Quinn, C.J. Senff, A. Stohl, A.P. ence behind climate change. Scientific Ameri- Sullivan, M. Trainer, C. Warneke, R.J. Weber, can 297(2): 64-71. E.J. Williams. 2008. Sources of particulate matter in the Northeastern United States in summer: 1. Direct emissions and secondary

134 Appendices

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153. Stephenson, N., D.L. Peterson, D. Fagre, 159. Walsh, John E., William L. Chapman, and C.D. Allen, D. McKenzie, J.S. Baron, and K. Timothy L. Shy. 2007. Recent decrease of sea O’Brian. 2007. Response of western mountain level pressure in the central Arctic. Journal of ecosystems to climatic variability and change: Climate, Vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 480-486. The Western Mountain Initiative. Park Science 160. Wang, M., N.A. Bond and J.E. Overland. 24: 24-29. 2007. Comparison of atmospheric forcing in 154. Thompson, A.M, J.B. Stone, J.C. Witte, S.K. four sub-arctic seas. Deep-Sea Research 2, 54, Miller, S.J. Oltmans, T.L. Kucsera, K.L. Ross, 2543–2559. K.E. Pickering, J.T. Merrill, G. Forbes, D.W. 161. Wang, M., J.E. Overland, D. Percival, and H.O. Tarasick, E. Joseph, F.J. Schmidlin, W.W. Mc- Mofjeld. 2007. Change in the Arctic influence Millan, J. Warner, E.J. Hintsa, and J.E. John- on Bering Sea climate during the twentieth son. 2007. Intercontinental Chemical Trans- century. International Journal of Climatology, port Experiment Ozonesonde Network Study 26(4), 531–539. (IONS) 2004: 2. Tropospheric ozone budgets and variability over northeastern North 162. Wang, M., J.E. Overland, V. Kattsov, J.E. Walsh, America. Journal of Geophysical Research,112, X. Zhang, and T. Pavlova. 2007. Intrinsic ver- D12S13, doi:10.1029/2006JD00767. sus forced variation in coupled climate model simulations over the Arctic during the 20th 155. Tolkova, Elena. 2007. Compression of MOST Century. Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, No.6, pp. Propagation Database. NOAA Technical Re- 1084-1098. port, OAR PMEL-134, 9 pp. 163. Wang, W., M.J. Rood, C.M. Carrico, 156. Trask, B. 2007. Developing a multi-scale as- D.S. Covert, P.K. Quinn, and T.S. Bates. sessment framework for adaptive capacity in 2007. Aerosol optical properties along the Columbia River Basin and Skagit River the northeast coast of North America dur- Watershed. M.M.A. Thesis, School of Marine ing the New England Air Quality Study Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle. - Intercontinental Transport and Chemi- 157. Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bo- cal Transformation, 2004 campaign and jariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. the influence of aerosol composition. Jour- Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. nal of Geophysical Research,112, D10S23, Soden, and P. Zhai. 2007. Observations: Sur- doi:10.1029/2006JD007579, 2007. face and atmospheric climate change. Chap- 164. Wanninkhof, R., R.A. Feely, N.R. Bates, F.J. ter 3 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Millero, T. Takahashi, and S. Cook. 2006. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and Documenting ocean carbon sources and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The sinks—surface water pCO2 measurements Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Work- from ships. In: Annual Report on The State of ing Group I, to the Fourth Assessment Report the Ocean and the Ocean Observing System for of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate, Annual Report, Fiscal Year 2005, J.M. Change. Cambridge University Press, Cam- Levy (ed.), NOAA/Climate Program Office/ bridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, Office of Climate Observation, 207–216. USA. (Contributing author: Mote, P.) 165. Wood, A.W. 2008. The University of Washing- 158. Walker, S.L., E.T. Baker, J.A. Resing, W. Chad- ton Surface Water Monitor: An experimental wick, G.T. Lebon, J.E. Lupton, and S.M. Merle. platform for national hydrologic assessment 2008. Eruption-fed particle plumes and volca- and prediction. In Proceedings of the AMS niclastic deposits at a submarine volcano: NW 22nd Conference on Hydrology, New Orleans, Rota-1, Mariana arc. Journal of Geophysical LA, January 20-24. Research, doi: 10.1029/2007JB005441.

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166. Wood, A.W., and J.C. Schaake. 2008. Correct- 173. Armstrong, J.L., K.W. Myers, D.A. Beauchamp, ing errors in streamflow forecast ensemble N.D. Davis, R.V. Walker, J.L. Boldt, J. J. Pic- mean and spread. Journal of Hydrometeorology colo, L.J. Haldorson, and J.H. Moss. Interan- 9(1): 132-148. nual and Spatial Feeding Patterns of Hatchery and Wild Juvenile Pink Salmon in the Gulf 167. Wei, Y., Bernard, E.N., Tang, L., Weiss, R., of Alaska in Years of Low and High Survival. Titov, V.V., Moore, C., Spillane, M., Hopkins, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, M. & Kanoglu, U. 2008. Real-time experimen- submitted (in press). tal forecast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S. coastlines. Geophysical Research 174. Avise, J., J. Chen, E. Salathe, C. Mass, A. Letters, 35, L04609. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, J. Lamarque, and B. Lamb. Impact of episodic long-range trans- 168. Weiss. 2008. Sediment grains moved by pass- port of Asian emissions on ozone levels in the ing tsunami waves: Tsunami deposits on deep western U.S., today and in the future. Atmo- water. Marine Geology, 250, 251-257. spheric Chemistry and Physics, submitted. 169. Wuennemann, K., Weiss, R. & Hofmann, K. 175. Avise, J., J. Chen, E. Salathe, C. Mass, A. 2007. Wave characteristics of impact-induced Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, L. Horowitz, and large waves -- Reevaluation of the tsunami B. Lamb. Attribution of projected changes in hazard. Meteoritic and Planetary Science, 72, U.S. ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to spe- 1-11. cific global changes. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, submitted. July 2007 - June 2008 – JISAO Publications 176. Baker, E.T., R.M. Haymon, J.A. Resing S.M. (Reported as Submitted) White, S.L. Walker, K.C. Macdonald, and K. 170. A’Mar, Z. Teresa, Andre E. Punt, and Martin Nakamura. 2008. High-resolution surveys W. Dorn. The Impact on Management Per- along the hotspot-affected Galápagos Spread- formance of Including Indicators of Environ- ing Center: 1. Distribution of hydrothermal mental Change in Management Strategies for activity. Geochemistry, Geophysics, and Geosys- the Fishery for Walleye Polluck in the Gulf of tems, in press. Alaska. Submitted - journal not yet indicated. 177. Bates, T.S., P.K. Quinn, D. Coffman, K. Schulz, 171. Adam, J., A, Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. D.S. Covert, J.E. Johnson, E.J. Williams, B.M. Implications of global climate change for Lerner, W.M. Angevine, S.C. Tucker, W.A. snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century. Hy- Brewer, and A. Stohl. 2008. Boundary layer drological Processes, submitted. aerosol chemistry during TexAQS/GoMACCS 2006: Insights into aerosol sources and trans- 172. Armstrong, Janet L., Katherine W. Myers, formation processes. Journal of Geophysical David A. Beauchamp, Nancy D. Davis, Robert Research, in press. V. Walker, and Jennifer L. Boldt. Interan- nual and spatial feeding patterns of hatchery 178. Bond, N.A., J.E. Overland, and S.A. Salo. In- and wild juvenile pink salmon in the Gulf fluence of the Regional Atmospheric Circula- of Alaska in years of low and high survival. tion on the Observed Shortwave Radiation at Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, the North Pole. Journal of Geophysical Re- submitted. search- Atmospheres, submitted. 179. Boss, E., D. Swift, L. Taylor, P. Brickley, R. Zaneveld, S.C. Riser, and M.J. Perry. 2008. Robotic in-situ and satellite based observa- tions of pigment and particle distributions in the western North Atlantic. Limnology and Oceanography, in press.

144 Appendices

180. Bourlès, B., R. Lumpkin, M.J. McPhaden, 189. Casola, Joseph H., Cuo, Lan, Livneh, Ben, F. Hernandez, P. Nobre, E.Campos, L. Yu, Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Mote, Philip W., and S. Planton, A.J. Busalacchi, A.D. Moura, J. Wallace, John M. Assessing the impacts of Servain, and J Trotte. 2008. The PIRATA Pro- global warming on snowpack in the Washing- gram: History, Accomplishments, and Future ton Cascades. Journal of Climate, submitted. Directions. Bulletin of the American Meteoro- 190. Chen, J., J. Avise, C. Mass, E. Salathe, A. Guen- logical Society, in press. ther, C. Wiedinmyer, D. McKenszie, N. Lar- 181. Brown, R. D., and P.W. Mote. The response of kin, S. O’Neill, and B. Lamb. Global Change Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a chang- impacts on Future Regional Air Quality in ing climate. Journal of Climate, submitted. the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and 182. Buck, C.S., W. M. Landing, J.A. Resing. High Physics, submitted. Resolution Analysis of Particle Size and Aero- 191. Chiodi, A.M. and D.E. Harrison. Characteriz- sol Fe Solubility on Atlantic Aerosols. Marine ing ENSO variability in the Equatorial Pacific: Chemistry, submitted. An OLR perspective. Journal of Climate, 183. Buck, C.S., W. M. Landing, J.A. Resing, and submitted. Measures, C.I. The solubility and deposition 192. Chiodi, A.M. and D.E. Harrison. Hurricane of Aerosol Fe and other trace elements in the Alley SST variability in 2005 and 2006. Journal North Atlantic Ocean: Observations from the of Climate, in press. A16N CLIVAR/ CO2 Repeat Hydrography 193. Cravatte, Sophie, Thierry Delcroix, Donxiao Section. Marine Chemistry, submitted. Zhang, Michael McPhaden, and Julie Leloup. 184. Buck, C.S., W. M. Landing, J.A. Resing. High Observed freshening of the warming western Resolution Analysis of Particle Size and Aero- tropical Pacific and extension of the warm/ sol Fe Solubility on Atlantic Aerosols. Marine fresh pool in recent decades. Climate Dynam- Chemistry, submitted. ics, (March 2008), submitted. 185. Burgos, J.M. and J.K. Horne. 2008. Acoustic 194. Cuo, Lan, Dennis P. Lettenmeier, Marina Al- characterization and classification of pelagic berti, and Jeffrey Richey. Effects of a century organism distributions. (doi: 10.1093/icesjms/ of land cover and climate change on the hy- fsn087) ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: (in drology of the Puget Sound basin. Submitted, press). journal not yet indicated. 186. Burwell, D. and E. Tolkova. Curvilinear 195. Dobbins, E.L., A.J. Hermann, P.J. Stabeno. MOST and its first application: Regional Fore- Modeled transport of freshwater from a line- cast Notes version 2. NOAA Technical Memo, source in the coastal Gulf of Alaska. Submit- 2008, submitted. ted, journal not yet indicated. 187. Carre, Matthieu, Daniele Lavallee, Michele 196. Doyle, Miriam J., Susan J. Picquelle, Kathryn Julien, Ilhem Bentaleb, Michel Fontugne, and L. Mier, Mick Spillane, and Nicholas A. Bond. Orest Kawka. Insights into Early Holocene Larval fish abundance and physical forcing hunter-gatherer mobility on the Peruvian in the Gulf of Alaska, 1981-2003. Progress in Southern Coast from mollusk gathering Oceanography, submitted. seasonality. Journal of Archaeological Science, 197. Duffy-Anderson, J.T., Doyle, M.J., Mier, K.L., submitted. and Stabeno, P.J. (in review) Early life ecology 188. Carre, Matthieu, Julian P. Sachs, and John M. of Alaska plaice (Pleuronectes quadritubercu- Wallace. Quantitative paleoclimate recon- latus) in the eastern Bering Sea: seasonality, structions from oxygen isotopes in mollusk distribution, and dispersal. For submission to shell middens. Quaternary Science Reviews, Journal of Sea Research. submitted.

145 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

198. Eldridge, William H., Jim Myers, and Kerry A. 207. Gonzalez, et. al. Seaside, Oregon Probabilistis Naish. Long-term changes in fine-scale popu- Tsunami Hazard Assessment by Tsunami Pilot lation structure in coho salmon populations Study Working Group. Journal of Geophysical (Onchorhynchus kisutch) subject to extensive Research (Oceans), submitted. support breeding. Submitted, journal not yet 208. Greenslade, D.J.M., and V.V. Titov. A Compar- indicated. ison Study of Two Numerical Tsunami Fore- 199. Foltz, G. R. and M.J. McPhaden. Impact of casting Systems. Pure and Applied Geophysics, barrier layer thicknesses on SST in the central submitted. tropical North Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 209. Haas, C., A. Pfaffling, S. Hendriks, L. Raben- submitted. stein, J.-L. Etienne, and I. Rigor, Reduced ice 200. Foltz, G.R. and M.J. McPhaden. Impact of thickness in Arctic Transpolar Drift favors Saharan dust on tropical North Atlantic SST. rapid ice retreat. Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Climate, in press. in press. 201. Foltz, G.R. and M.J. McPhaden. Trends in 210. Harrison, D. E. and A.M Chiodi. Pre and post Saharan dust and tropical Atlantic climate 1997/1998 westerly wind events and equato- during 1980-2006. Geophysical Research Let- rial Pacific cold tongue warming. Journal of ters, submitted. Climate, submitted. 202. Foltz, Gregory R. and M.J. McPhaden. Sea- 211. Haymon, R.M., S.M. White, E.T. Baker, P.G. sonal mixed layer salinity balance of the Anderson, K.C. Macdonald, and J.A. Resing. tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Geo- High-resolution surveys along the hotspot- physical Research, submitted. affected Galápagos Spreading Center: 3. Black smoker discoveries and the implications for 203. Fontaine, M., and A.C. Steinemann. Assessing geological controls on hydrothermal activ- vulnerability to natural hazards: An impact- ity. Geochemistry, Geophysics, and Geosystems, based method and application to drought in submitted. Washington State. Natural Hazards Review, in press. ed method and application to drought 212. Hermann, A.J., E.N. Curchitser, E.L. Dobbins, in Washington State. Natural Hazards Review, and D. B. Haidvogel. A comparison of re- in press. mote versus local influence of El Nino on the coastal circulation of the Northeast Pacific. 204. Ganachaud, A., L. Gourdeau, and W. Kessler. Submitted, journal not yet indicated. Bifurcation of the subtropical south equato- rial current against New Caledonia in De- 213. Hermann, A.J., S. Hinckley, E.L. Dobbins, and cember 2004 from a hydrographic inverse box D. B. Haidvogel. Quantifying cross-shelf and model. Submitted, journal not yet indicated. vertical nutrient flux in the Gulf of Alaska with a spacially nested, coupled biophysical 205. Gica, E., M.C. Spillane, D. Arcas, D.B. Per- model. Submitted, journal not yet indicated. cival and V.V. Titov. Development of NOAA’s Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis 214. Horne, J.K. 2008. Acoustic ontogeny of teleost (SIFT) and a Case Study of the 15 November fish. Journal of Fish Biology, in press. 2006 Kuril Tsunami. NOAA Technical Memo- 215. Horne, J.K., K. Sawada, K. Abe, R. Kreisberg, randum, submitted. D. Barbee, and K. Sadayasu. Swimbladders 206. Gica, Edison, Michael Spillane, Vasily Titov, under pressure: Anatomical and acoustic and Chris Chamberlin. Development of the response by walleye pollock. ICES Journal of Forecast Propagation Database for NOAA’s Marine Science, submitted. Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis (SIFT). NOAA Technical Memorandum, OAR- PMEL, submitted.

146 Appendices

216. Jarvis, J.C., E.J. Steig, M.G. Hastings, and S. A. 224. Lundquist, J.D. Using inexpensive tempera- Kunasek. The influence of local photochem- ture sensors to monitor the duration and het- istry on isotopes of nitrate in Greenland snow. erogeneity of snow-covered areas in complex Geophysical Research Letters, submitted. terrain. Water Resources Research, special issue on Measurement Methods, submitted. 217. Johnson, G.C., S.G. Purkey, and J.L. Bullister. 2008. Warming and freshening in the abyssal 225. Lupton, John, Marvin Lilley, David Butter- southeastern Indian Ocean. Journal of Cli- field, Leigh Evans, Robert Embley, Gary Mas- mate, submitted, (in press). soth, Bruce Christenson, Ko-ichi Nakamura, and Mark Schmidt. Venting of a separate 218. Knapp, A.N., M.G. Hastings, D.M. Sigman, F. CO 2-rich gas phase from Submarine Arc Lipschultz, and J.N. Galloway. The flux and Volcanoes - examples from the Mariana and isotopic composition of reduced and total Tonga-Kermadec Arcs. Journal of Geophysical nitrogen in Bermuda rain. Journal of Marine Research - Solid Earth, submitted. Chemistry, submitted. 226. Martinez, Elodie, Alexandre Ganachaud, 219. Kunasek, S.A., B. Alexander, E.J. Steig, M.G. Jerome Lefevre, and Keitapu Maamaatuaia- Hastings, and J.C. Jarvis. Measurements and hutapu. Seasonal and inter-annual variability modeling of Delta 0-17 of nitrate in a snowpit on the central South Pacific thermocline water from Summit, Greenland. Journal of Geophys- circulation from a high resolution ocean ical Research – Atmospheres, submitted. model validated against sattelite data. Journal 220. Ladd, C., W.R. Crawford, C.E. Harpold, W.K. of Geophysical Research, submitted. Johnson, N.B. Kachel, P.J. Stabeno, and F. 227. Martz, T., K. Johnson, and S.C. Riser. 2008. Whitney. A synoptic survey of young me- Ocean metabolism observed with oxygen sen- soscale eddies in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. sors on profiling floats in the Pacific. Limnol- Deep Sea Research, Part II, submitted. ogy and Oceanography, in press. 221. Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, and M. Tjoelker. 228. Massoth, G.J., E.T. Baker, J.E. Lupton, R.A. Douglas-fir growth-climate relationships Arculus, T. Worthington, S. L. Walker, C. along biophysical gradients in mountain pro- deRonde, J.-I. Ishibashi, K. Nakamura, P. tected areas of the northwestern U.S. Ecologi- Stoffers, J.A. Resing, R. Greene, and J. Lebon. cal Monographs, in press. Magmatic-hydrothermal fluid plumes along a 222. Love, Brooke A., Joseph A. Resing, James P. convergent plate margin: South Tonga (Tofua) Cohen, John E. Lupton, Daniel J. Fornari, arc and Valu Fa (ELSC) back arc. Journal of Timothy M. Shank, Marvin D. Lilley, and Geophysical Research, submitted. Dondra Biller. Methane, Manganese, and 229. McPhaden, M.J. Evolution of the 2006-07 El Methane Isotopic Composition in Hydrother- Nino: The Role of Intraseasonal to Interannu- mal Plumes Following Volcanic Eruptions on al Time Scale Dynamics. Advances in Geosci- the East Pacific Rise Near 9 degrees 50 min- ences, submitted. utes North. Journal of Geophysical Research, submitted. 230. McPhaden, M.J., M.F. Cronin, and D.C. Mc- Clurg. 2008. Meridional Structure of the 223. Lundquist, J.D., B. Huggett, and H. Roop. Use Surface Mixed Layer Temperature Balance on of stream stage recorders to augment rain Seasonal Time Scales in the Eastern Tropical gauges in low-order, high-altitude, shallow- Pacific. Journal of Climate, in press. soil basins to identify thunderstorm locations and to distinguish rain from snow. Water Resources Research, special issue on Measure- ment Methods, submitted.

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231. McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Lit- 238. Mote, P.W., J. Casson, A.F. Hamlet, and D.C. tell. Global warming and stress complexes Reading. Sensitivity of Northwest ski areas to in forests of western North America. In: A. warming. In: B. McGurk (ed.), Proceedings of Bytnerowicz, M. Arbaugh, C. Anderson, and the 75th Western Snow Conference, April 16-19, A. Riebau (eds.), Forest Fires and Air Pollution 2007, Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. Soda Springs, CA: Issues. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Western Snow Conference, in press. Science, Ltd., in press. 239. Mote, P.W., A. (Sacha) Petersen, S. Reeder, H. 232. McKenzie, D., C.L. Raymond, and S.C. Cush- Shipman, and L.C. Whitely Binder. Sea Level man. In: Modeling understory vegetation Rise Scenarios for Washington State. Report and its response to fire. J. Millspaugh and F.R. prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center Thompson III, Models for Planning Wildlife for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute Conservation in Large Landscapes, in press. for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, Uni- versity of Washington, Seattle, Washington, and 233. Mecking, Sabine, Chris Langdon, Richard the Washington State Department of Ecology, A. Feely, Christopher L. Sabine, Curtis A. Lacey, Washington, submitted. Deutsch and Dong-Ha Min. Climate Variabil- ity in the North Pacific Thermocline Diag- 240. Mote, Philip, Eric Salathe, Valerie Duliere, nosed from Oxygen Measurements: An Up- and Emily Jump. Scenarios of future climate date Based on the U.S. CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat change for the Pacific Northwest. Journal not Hydrography Cruises. Global Biogeochemical yet indicated, submitted Cycles, submitted. 241. O’Brien, Kevin M., N. Auerbach, J. Cartwright, 234. Merati, N., C. Chamberlin, C. Moore, and T.C. T. Habermann, S. Hankin, K. Kern, M. Little, Vance. Integration of Tsunami Analysis Tools and R. Schweitzer. Monitoring and analyz- into a GIS workspace - Research, Modeling ing the Global Ocean Observing System with and Hazard Mitigation efforts within NOAA’s the Observing System Monitoring Center. Center for Tsunami Research. Chapter In: Proceedings of the 24th Conference on Interna- Geotechnichnical Contributions to Urban Haz- tional Interactive Information and Processing ard and Disaster Analysis, P. Showalter and L. Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, Wu (eds.), Springer Publishing, submitted. and Hydrology, 20-24 January, 2008, New Orleans, LA, USA, submitted. 235. Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.P. Kellogg, and J.A. Newton. Local and large-scale climate forcing 242. O’Brien, Kevin M., S, Nikonov, R. Schweizer, of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on S. Hankin, V. Balaji, A. Manke, J. Li, and J. Cal- seasonal to interdecadal timescales. Limnology lahan. Accessing the IPCC AR4 data: a day in and Oceanography, in press. the life of the GFDL data portal. Proceedings of the 24th Conference on International Interac- 236. Moore, S.K., V.L. Trainer, N.J. Mantua, D. tive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) Parker, E.A. Laws, L.C. Backer, and L.E. Flem- for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology, ing. Impacts of climate variability and future 20-24 January, 2008, New Orleans, LA, USA, climate change on harmful algal blooms and submitted. human health. Environmental Health, in press. 243. Opatkiewicz, Andrew D., David A. Butterfield, 237. Mote, P.W. In: Variability and trends in moun- and John A. Baross. Individual hydrothermal tain snowpack in western North America. F. vents at Axial Seamount harbor distinct sub- Wagner (ed.), Proceedings of the AAAS Pacific seafloor microbial communities. Environmen- Division Annual Meeting, in press. tal Microbiology, submitted. 244. Overland, James E., Muyin Wang, and Sigrid Salo. The Recent Arctic Warm Period. Tellus, submitted. 148 Appendices

245. Percival, D.B., D. Arcas, D.W. Denbo, M.C. 252. Rodgers, Keith B., Olivier Aumont, Chris- Eble, E. Gica, H.O. Mofjeld, M.C. Spillane, tophe Menkes, and Thomas Gorgues. Decadal L. Tang and V.V. Titov. Extracting Tsunami variations in equatorial Pacific ecosystems Source Scaling Factors via Inversion of DART and ferrocline/ pycnocline decoupling. Global Buoy Data. NOAA Technical Memorandum, Biogeochemical Cycles, submitted. submitted. 253. Salathé, E.P., R. Steed, C.F. Mass, and P. Zahn. 246. Petersen, A. (Sascha), D.J. Canning, T.M. A high-resolution climate model for the Leschine, and E.L. Miles. Adapting decision United States Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale making to uncertainty when addressing sea feedbacks and local responses to climate level rise response in Puget Sound. In: Pro- change. Journal of Climate, in press. ceedings of the 15th Biennial Coastal Zone 254. Sachs, Julian P., Dirk Sachse, Zhaohui Zhang, Conference, July 22-26, 2007, Portland, Oregon. Rienk H. Smittenberg, Matthieu Carre, and Charleston, SC: NOAA Coastal Services Cen- Stjepko Golubic. Near-Equator position of ter. In press. the Intertropical Convergence Zone during 247. Pester, N.J., D.A. Butterfield, D.I. Foustou- the ‘Little Ice Age’. Nature, (July 30, 2008), kos, K.K. Roe, K. Ding, T.M. Shank, and W.E. submitted. Seyfried, Jr. 2008. The chemistry of diffuse- 255. Seeb, L.W., A. Antonovich, M. Banks, T. flow vent fluids on the Galapagos Rift (86°W): Beacham, R. Bellinger, S. Blankenship, M.R. Temporal variability and subseafloor phase Campbell, N. Decovich, J.C. Garza, C. Guth- equilibria controls. AGU geophysical mono- rie, T. Lundrigan, P. Moran, S. Narum, J. Ste- graph, Modeling Hydrothermal Processes at phenson, J. Supernault, D. Teel, W.D. Templin, Oceanic Spreading Centers: Magma to Microbe, J.K. Wenburg, S. Young, and C.T. Smith. 2007. accepted. Development of a Standardized DNA Data- 248. Resing, J.A., E.T. Baker, J.E. Lupton, S.L. base for Chinook salmon. Fisheries, (Journal Walker, G.T. Lebon, G.J. Massoth, and K. of the American Fisheries Society), November Nakamura. The chemistry of hydrothermal 2007, submitted. plumes above active submarine volcanoes 256. Slaughter, Richard. Theoretical Foundations of the Mariana Arc. Journal of Geophysical of Water Markets. Journal of the American Wa- Research, submitted. ter Resources Association (JAWRA), submitted. 249. Resing, J.A., E.T. Baker, J.E. Lupton, S.L. 257. Slemons, Lia, Thomas Gorgues, Olivier Au- Walker, D.A. Butterfield, G. Lebon, G.J. Mas- mont, James W. Murray, and Christophe Men- soth, and K.-I. Nakamura. Hydrothermally kes. Control by the Iron Fist: Biogeochemical active submarine volcanoes of the Mariana impact of a modern western iron source in Arc. Geochemistry, Geophysics, and Geosystems, the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent. Deep Sea submitted. Research, submitted. 250. Rigor, I.G., S.V. Nghiem, P. Clemente-Colón, 258. Sloyan, B.M., and I.V. Kamenkovich. Simu- D.K. Perovich, J. Richter-Menge, G. Neumann, lation of Subantartic mode and Antarctic and M. Ortmeyer. Retreat of Arctic perennial intermediate waters in climate models. Journal sea ice: The North Pole on thin ice. Geophysi- of Climate, in press. cal Research Letters, submitted. 259. Sonnerup, R. E, J. L. Bullister, and M. J. War- 251. Riser, S.C., J. Nystuen, and A. Rogers. 2008. ner. 2008. Improved estimates of ventilation Monsoon effects in the Bay of Bengal inferred rate changes and CO2 uptake in the Pacific from profiling float-based measurements Ocean using chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur of wind speed and rainfall. Limnology and hexafluoride. Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceanography, in press. submitted.

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260. Sonnerup, R. E., B. A. Bergamaschi, A. D. Rus- 269. Voisin, N., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. sell, and P. J. Hernes. 2008. Seasonal and inter- Evaluation of precipitation products for annual variation in dissolved organic carbon global hydrological prediction. Journal of Hy- contributions to the Sacramento-San Joaquin drometeorology, in press. Delta from historical data. Biogeochemistry, 270. Walker, S.L., E.T. Baker, G.T. Lebon, J.A. Res- submitted. ing, and J.E. Lupton. Eruption-fed particle 261. Sonnerup, Rolf E., John L. Bullister, and Mark plumes at a submarine volcano: NW-Rota-1, J. Warner. A Sulphur Hexaflouride Section Mariana Arc. Journal of Geophysical Research, in the North Pacific. Journal of Geophysical submitted. Research, (Oceans), submitted. 271. Wang, Muyin, and James E. Overland. Projec- 262. Synolakis, C.E., E. Bernard, V. Titov. U. Kano- tions of Sea-Ice cover in the vicinity of Bering glu, and F. Gonzalez. Validation and Verifica- Strait and East Bering Sea. Journal of Polar tion of Tsunami Numerical Models. Pure and Science, submitted. Applied Geophysics, submitted. 272. Wang, Muyin, James Overland, and Nick 263. Tang, Quihong, Andrew Wood, and Dennis Bond. Climate Forecasts for Selected Large Lettenmaier. Real-time precipitation estima- Marine Ecosystems. Journal of Marine Systems tion based on index station percentiles. Jour- (GLOBEC Special Issue), submitted. nal of Hydrometeorology, submitted. 273. Wei, Yong, Eddie N. Bernard, Liujuan Tang, 264. Titov, Vasily. “Tsunami Forecasting”. Chapter Robert Weiss, Vasiliy V. Titov, Christopher in: The Sea. Harvard University Press, submit- Moore, Michael Spillane, Mike Hopkins, and ted. Utku Kanog. Real -time Experimental Fore- cast of the Peruvian Tsunami of August 2007 265. Tolkova, Elena. Principal Component Analy- for U.S. Coastlines. Geophysical Research Let- sis of Tsunami Buoy Record; Tide Prediction ters, submitted. and Removal. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, submitted. 274. Wei, Yong. Tsunami Impact Assessment for Unalaska, AK, USA. Proceedings of the Solu- 266. Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim. 2008. Perfor- tions to Coastal Disasters Conference 2008, mance characteristics of a pseudo-operational [Coasts, Oceans, Ports and Rivers Institute ensemble Kalman filter. Monthly Weather (COPRI) of the American Society of Civil Engi- Review, 136, accepted. neering (ASCE)], April 13-16, 2008, Turtle Bay 267. Vialard, J., J.P. Duvel, M. McPhaden, P. Bou- Resort, Oahu, Hawaii, USA, submitted. ruet-Aubertot, B. Ward, E. Key, D. Bourras, R. 275. Weiss, Robert, Kai Wu(e)nneman, and Vas- Weller, P. Minnett, A. Weill, C. Cassou, L. Ey- ily Titov. Hydrocode modeling of tsunami mard, T. Fristedt, C. Basdevant, Y. Dandoneau, generation by slides: Code validation tests. O. Duteil, T. Izumo, C. de Boyer Montégut, S. Marine Geology, submitted. Masson, F. Marsac. 2008. Cirene: Air-sea inter- actions in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline 276. Weiss, Robert. Sediment grains moved by ridge region. Bulletin of the American Meteoro- passing tsunami waves: tsunami deposits in logical Society, in press. deep water. Marine Geology, submitted. 268. Vialard, J., G.R. Foltz, M.J. McPhaden, and J. 277. Weiss, Robert. Generation of offshore tsu- P. Duvel. Strong Indian Ocean cooling driven nami deposits. Solutions to Coastal Disasters, by the Madden-Julian oscillation in late 2007 submitted. and early 2008. Geophysical Research Letters, submitted.

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278. White, S., J. Meyer, R. Haymon, K. Macdon- ald, E.T. Baker, and J.A. Resing. Influence of magma supply on volcanic morphology: Plume-ridge interaction at the Galapagos spreading center. Geochemistry, Geophysics, and Geosystems, submitted. 279. Wood, Kevin R. and Dmitry A. Streletskiy. Soil and Permafrost Temperature Data Obtained During the First International Polar Year, 1882-1883. Proceedings of the Ninth Inter- national Conference on Permafrost (NICOP), University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA, June 29-July 3, 2008, submitted. 280. Wood, Kevin R. and James E. Overland. Early 20th century Arctic warming in retrospect. Journal of Climate, submitted. 281. Wu, Z., E.K. Schneider, B.P. Kirtman, E. Sara- chik, B. Huang, and C.J. Tucker. The modu- lated annual cycle - an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies. Climate Dynam- ics, in press. 282. Yoneyama, K et al. 2008. MISMO field experi- ment in the tropical Indian Ocean. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press. 283. Zhang, X. and M.J. McPhaden. 2008. Eastern equatorial Pacific forcing of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate, in press.

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Appendix 12

Most Cited Publications DeWeaver E, Nigam S Do stationary waves drive the zonal-mean jet anomalies Climate Dynamics, General of the northern winter? JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 13 (13): 2160-2176 JUL 1 2000 Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM, Hegerl GC Times Cited: 38 Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends DeWeaver E, Nigam S JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 13 (5): 1018-1036 MAR 1 Zonal-eddy dynamics of the North Atlantic oscillation 2000 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 13 (22): 3893-3914 NOV 15 Times Cited: 351 2000 Times Cited: 34 Barsugli JJ, Battisti DS The basic effects of atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability ENSO JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 55 (4): 477-493 FEB 15 1998 McPhaden MJ Times Cited: 160 Climate oscillations - Genesis and evolution of the 1997- 98 El Nino McPhaden MJ, Zhang DX SCIENCE 283 (5404): 950-954 FEB 12 1999 Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in Times Cited: 418 the upper Pacific Ocean NATURE 415 (6872): 603-608 FEB 7 2002 Chavez FP, Strutton PG, Friederich CE, et al. Times Cited: 153 Biological and chemical response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the 1997-98 El Nino Bretherton CS, Battisti DS SCIENCE 286 (5447): 2126-2131 DEC 10 1999 An interpretation of the results from atmospheric Times Cited: 190 general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution Wallace JM, Rasmusson EM, Mitchell TP, et al. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 27 (6): 767- The structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate 770 MAR 15 2000 variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA Times Cited: 86 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 103 (C7): 14241-14259 JUN 29 1998 Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, et al. Times Cited: 147 The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field Meinen CS, McPhaden MJ JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 12 (7): 1990-2009 JUL 1999 Observations of warm water volume changes in the Times Cited: 90 equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Nino and La Nina Yin JH, Battisti DS JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 13 (20): 3551-3559 OCT 15 The importance of tropical sea surface temperature 2000 patterns in simulations of last glacial maximum climate Times Cited: 83 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 14 (4): 565-581 2001 Times Cited: 47 Bitz CM, Battisti DS Interannual to decadal variability in climate and the Bond NA, Overland JE, Spillane M, et al. glacier mass balance in Washington, Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific western Canada, and Alaska GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 30 (23): Art. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 12 (11): 3181-3196 NOV 1999 No. 2183 DEC 2 2003 Times Cited: 50 Times Cited: 59 152 Appendices

Overland JE, Bond NA, Adams JM Hare SR, Mantua NJ North Pacific atmospheric and SST anomalies in 1997: Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in Links to ENSO? 1977 and 1989 FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY 10 (1): 69-80 MAR PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY 47 (2-4): 103-145 2001 2000 Times Cited: 41 Times Cited: 360

Seager R, Battisti DS, Yin J, et al. McPhaden MJ, Busalacchi AJ, Cheney R, et al. Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe’s mild The tropical ocean global atmosphere observing winters? system: A decade of progress QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 128 103 (C7): 14169-14240 JUN 29 1998 (586): 2563-2586 Part B OCT 2002 Times Cited: 287 Times Cited: 51 Marshall J, Kushner Y, Battisti D, et al. Johnson SD, Battisti DS, Sarachik ES Thompson CJ North Atlantic climate variability: Phenomena, impacts A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part I: and mechanisms Model development INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 13 (15): 2818-2832 AUG 1 21 (15): 1863-1898 DEC 2001 2000 Times Cited: 227 Times Cited: 45 Mantua NJ, Hare SR Thompson CJ, Battisti DS The Pacific decadal oscillation A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part II: JOURNAL OF OCEANOGRAPHY 58 (1): 35-44 FEB Analysis 2002 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 14 (4): 445-466 2001 Times Cited: 180 Times Cited: 41 Garreaud RD, Battisti DS Thompson CJ Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled variability in the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO circulation JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 55 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 12 (7): 2113-2123 JUL 1999 (4): 537-557 FEB 15 1998 Times Cited: 123 Times Cited: 37 Overland JE, Adams JM, Bond NA Johnson SD, Battisti DS, Sarachik ES Decadal variability of the Aleutian low and its relation Empirically derived Markov models and prediction of to high-latitude circulation tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 12 (5): 1542-1548 Part 2 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 13 (1): 3-17 JAN 1 2000 MAY 1999 Times Cited: 28 Times Cited: 93

Interdecadal Climate Variability Arctic Climate

Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, et al. Randall D, Curry J, Battisti D, et al. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts Status of and outlook for large-scale modeling of on salmon production atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions in the Arctic BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 78 (6): 1069-1079 METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 79 (2): 197-219 FEB JUN 1997 1998 Times Cited: 1186 Times Cited: 67

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Climate Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO Hare SR, Mantua NJ, Francis RC and PDO climate signals Inverse production regimes: Alaska and West Coast JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING Pacific salmon AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE 125 FISHERIES 24 (1): 6-14 JAN 1999 (6): 333-341 NOV-DEC 1999 Times Cited: 121 Times Cited: 63

Stabeno PJ, Bond NA, Kachel NB, et al. Widmann M, Bretherton CS On the temporal variability of the physical environment Validation of mesoscale precipitation in the NCEP over the south-eastern Bering Sea reanalysis using a new gridcell dataset for the FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY 10 (1): 81-98 MAR northwestern United States 2001 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 13 (11): 1936-1950 JUN 1 Times Cited: 85 2000 Times Cited: 43 Brodeur RD, Mills CE, Overland JE, et al. Evidence for a substantial increase in gelatinous Miles EL, Snover AK, Hamlet AF, et al. zooplankton in the Bering Sea, with possible links to Pacific northwest regional assessment: The impacts climate change of climate variability and climate change on the water FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY 8 (4): 296-306 DEC resources of the Columbia River Basin 1999 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER Times Cited: 76 RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 36 (2): 399- 420 APR 2000 Hollowed AB, Hare SR, Wooster WS Times Cited: 32 Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY 49 (1-4): 257-282 Ocean Carbon Sp. Iss. SI 2001 Times Cited: 56 Takahashi T, Sutherland SC, Sweeney C, et al. Global sea-air CO2 flux based on climatological surface Clark WG, Hare SR, Parma AM, et al. ocean pCO(2), and seasonal biological and temperature Decadal changes in growth and recruitment of Pacific effects halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART II-TOPICAL STUDIES CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES AND IN OCEANOGRAPHY 49 (9-10): 1601-1622 2002 AQUATIC SCIENCES 56 (2): 242-252 FEB 1999 Times Cited: 308 Times Cited: 35 Sabine CL, Feely RA, Gruber N, et al. The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 Climate Impacts on Water Resources SCIENCE 305 (5682): 367-371 JUL 16 2004 Times Cited: 215 Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP Effects of climate change on hydrology and water Sabine CL, Key RM, Johnson KM, et al. resources in the Columbia River basin Anthropogenic CO2 inventory of the Indian Ocean JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 13 (1): 179- RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 35 (6): 198 MAR 1999 1597-1623 DEC 1999 Times Cited: 100 Times Cited: 65

154 Appendices

Feely RA, Wanninkhof R, Takahashi T, et al. Atmospheric Aerosols and Trace Gases Influence of El Nino on the equatorial Pacific contribution to atmospheric CO2 Bond TC, Anderson TL, Campbell D accumulation Calibration and intercomparison of filter-based NATURE 398 (6728): 597-601 APR 15 1999 measurements of visible light absorption by aerosols Times Cited: 95 AEROSOL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 30 (6): 582-600 JUN 1999 Feely RA, Sabine CL, Lee K, et al. Times Cited: 228

Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans Anderson TL, Ogren JA SCIENCE 305 (5682): 362-366 JUL 16 2004 Determining aerosol radiative properties using the TSI Times Cited: 134 3563 integrating nephelometer AEROSOL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 29 (1): Lee K, Wanninkhof R, Takahashi T, et al. 57-69 JUL 1998 Low interannual variability in recent oceanic uptake of Times Cited: 162 atmospheric carbon dioxide NATURE 396 (6707): 155-159 NOV 12 1998 Swietlicki E, Zhou JC, Covert DS, et al. Times Cited: 67 Hygroscopic properties of aerosol particles in the northeastern Atlantic during ACE-2 Feely RA, Boutin J, Cosca CE, et al. TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL

Seasonal and interannual variability of CO2 in the METEOROLOGY 52 (2): 201-227 APR 2000 equatorial Pacific Times Cited: 101 DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART II-TOPICAL STUDIES IN OCEANOGRAPHY 49 (13-14): 2443-2469 2002 Quinn PK, Coffman DJ, Kapustin VN, et al. Times Cited: 54 Aerosol optical properties in the marine boundary layer during the First Aerosol Characterization Experiment Wanninkhof R, Doney SC, Peng TH, et al. (ACE 1) and the underlying chemical and physical Comparison of methods to determine the aerosol properties anthropogenic CO2 invasion into the Atlantic Ocean JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL ATMOSPHERES 103 (D13): 16547- 16563 JUL 20 1998 METEOROLOGY 51 (2): 511-530 APR 1999 Times Cited: 80 Times Cited: 38 Bates TS, Kapustin VN, Quinn PK, et al. Peng TH, Wanninkhof R, Bullister JL, et al. Processes controlling the distribution of aerosol

Quantification of decadal anthropogenic CO2 uptake particles in the lower marine boundary layer during the in the ocean based on dissolved inorganic carbon First Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE 1) measurements JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- NATURE 396 (6711): 560-563 DEC 10 1998 ATMOSPHERES 103 (D13): 16369 - 16383 JUL 20 Times Cited: 37 1998 Times Cited: 74 Sabine CL, Feely RA, Key RM, et al.

Distribution of anthropogenic CO2 in the Pacific Ocean Boucher O, Schwartz SE, Ackerman TP, et al. GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 16 (4): Art. Intercomparison of models representing direct No. 1083 OCT-NOV 2002 shortwave radiative forcing by sulfate aerosols Times Cited: 33 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- ATMOSPHERES 103 (D14): 16979- 16998 JUL 27 1998 Times Cited: 68

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Anderson TL, Charlson RJ, Schwartz SE, et al. Bates TS, Quinn PK, Covert DS, et al. Climate forcing by aerosols - a hazy picture Aerosol physical properties and processes in the lower SCIENCE 300 (5622): 1103-1104 MAY 16 2003 marine boundary layer: a comparison of shipboard Times Cited: 80 sub-micron data from ACE-1 and ACE-2 TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL Anderson TL, Covert DS, Wheeler JD, et al. METEOROLOGY 52 (2): 258-272 APR 2000 Aerosol backscatter fraction and single scattering Times Cited: 38 albedo: Measured values and uncertainties at a coastal station in the Pacific Northwest Quinn PK, Bates TS, Miller TL, et al. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- Surface submicron aerosol chemical composition: ATMOSPHERES 104 (D21): 26793- 26807 NOV 20 What fraction is not sulfate? 1999 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- Times Cited: 58 ATMOSPHERES 105 (D5): 6785-6805 MAR 16 2000 Times Cited: 35 Anderson TL, Masonis SJ, Covert DS, et al. Variability of aerosol optical properties derived from in Anderson TL, Charlson RJ, Winker DM, et al. situ aircraft measurements during ACE-Asia Mesoscale variations of tropospheric aerosols JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 60 ATMOSPHERES 108 (D23): Art. No. 8647 AUG 19 (1): 119-136 JAN 2003 2003 Times Cited: 40 Times Cited: 60 Bates TS, Quinn PK, Coffman DJ, et al. Covert DS, Gras JL, Wiedensohler A, et al. Regional physical and chemical properties of the Comparison of directly measured CCN with CCN marine boundary layer aerosol across the Atlantic modeled from the number-size distribution in the during Aerosols99: An overview marine boundary layer during ACE 1 at Cape Grim, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- Tasmania ATMOSPHERES 106 (D18): 20767- 20782 SEP 27 2001 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- Times Cited: 33 ATMOSPHERES 103 (D13): 16597- 16608 JUL 20 1998 Times Cited: 50 Redemann J, Masonis SJ, Schmid B, et al. Clear-column closure studies of aerosols and water Gasso S, Hegg DA, Covert DS, et al. vapor aboard the NCAR C-130 during ACE-Asia, 2001 Influence of humidity on the aerosol scattering JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- coefficient and its effect on the upwelling radiance ATMOSPHERES 108 (D23): Art. No. 8655 AUG 30 during ACE-2 2003 TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL Times Cited: 30 METEOROLOGY 52 (2): 546-567 APR 2000 Times Cited: 39 Anderson TL, Masonis SJ, Covert DS, et al. In situ measurement of the aerosol extinction-to- Quinn PK, Coffman DJ, Bates TS, et al. backscatter ratio at a polluted continental site Dominant aerosol chemical components and their JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- contribution to extinction during the Aerosols99 cruise ATMOSPHERES 105 (D22): 26907- 26915 NOV 27 across the Atlantic 2000 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- Times Cited: 34 ATMOSPHERES 106 (D18): 20783 - 20809 SEP 27 2001 Times Cited: 38

156 Appendices

Kotchenruther RA, Jaffe DA, Beine HJ, et al. Schrenk MO, Kelley DS, Delaney JR, et al. Observations of Ozone and related species in the Incidence and diversity of microorganisms within the northeast Pacific during the PHOBEA campaigns 2. walls of an active deep-sea sulfide chimney Airborne observations APPLIED AND ENVIRONMENTAL JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH- MICROBIOLOGY 69 (6): 3580-3592 JUN 2003 ATMOSPHERES 106 (D7): 7463-7483 APR 16 2001 Times Cited: 58 Times Cited: 29 Kelley DS, Fruh-Green GL Abiogenic methane in deep-seated mid-ocean ridge Hydrothermal Vents environments: Insights from stable isotope analyses JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID Kelley DS, Karson JA, Blackman DK, et al. EARTH 104 (B5): 10439-10460 MAY 10 1999 An off-axis hydrothermal vent field near the Mid- Times Cited: 40 Atlantic Ridge at 30 degrees N NATURE 412 (6843): 145-149 JUL 12 2001 Huber JA, Butterfield DA, Baross JA Times Cited: 163 Bacterial diversity in a subseafloor habitat following a deep-sea volcanic eruption Dick HJB, Natland JH, Alt JC, et al. FEMS MICROBIOLOGY ECOLOGY 43 (3): 393-409 A long in situ section of the lower ocean crust: results APR 1 2003 of ODP Leg 176 drilling at the Southwest Indian Ridge Times Cited: 52 EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS 179 (1): 31-51 JUN 15 2000 Fruh-Green GL, Kelley DS, Bernasconi SM, et al. Times Cited: 95 30,000 years of hydrothermal activity at the Lost City vent field Delaney JR, Kelley DS, Lilley MD, et al. SCIENCE 301 (5632): 495-498 JUL 25 2003 The quantum event of oceanic crustal accretion: Times Cited: 42 Impacts of diking at mid-ocean ridges SCIENCE 281 (5374): 222-230 JUL 10 1998 Times Cited: 64 Tsunamis

Kelley DS, Karson JA, Fruh-Green GL, et al. Titov VV, Synolakis CE A serpentinite-hosted ecosystem: The lost city Numerical modeling of tidal wave runup hydrothermal field JOURNAL OF WATERWAY PORT COASTAL AND SCIENCE 307 (5714): 1428-1434 MAR 4 2005 OCEAN ENGINEERING-ASCE Times Cited: 86 124 (4): 157-171 JUL-AUG 1998 Times Cited: 65 Huber JA, Butterfield DA, Baross JA Temporal changes in archaeal diversity and chemistry in a mid-ocean ridge subseafloor habitat APPLIED AND ENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY 68 (4): 1585-1594 APR 2002 Times Cited: 61

Kelley DS, Baross JA, Delaney JR Volcanoes, fluids, and life at mid-ocean ridge spreading centers ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES 30: 385-491 2002 Times Cited: 64

157 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

158 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report

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