ExecutiveJuly 1, 2007 Summary - June 30, 2008 Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean Annual Report 1 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report Executive Summary Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 Climate....................................................................................................................................................... 13 Marine Ecosystems ................................................................................................................................... 47 Environmental Chemistry ........................................................................................................................ 77 Coastal Oceanography ............................................................................................................................. 99 Appendices ..............................................................................................................................................117 Appendix 1 Senior Fellows and Council Members ...................................................................118 Appendix 2 Task I Events and Visitors 2007 – 2008 ..................................................................119 Appendix 3 Task II Personnel/PIs .................................................................................................120 Appendix 4 Task III Personnel/PIs ................................................................................................121 Appendix 5 Projects by Task ........................................................................................................123 Appendix 6 Personnel Count ......................................................................................................126 Appendix 7 Graduate Students ..................................................................................................127 Appendix 8 Post-Doctoral Research Associates .........................................................................128 Appendix 9 Awards and Honors 2007 – 2008 ............................................................................129 Appendix 10 Publications Count.................................................................................................131 Appendix 11 Publications ............................................................................................................132 Appendix 12 Most Cited Publications ........................................................................................152 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report Executive Summary Executive Summary 1 JISAO 2007-2008 Annual Report Introduction he Joint Institute for the Study of the The Institute continues to grow and has experienced Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), a NOAA change over the past year. After occupying an off- Cooperative Institute at the University of campus location for many years, JISAO acquired TWashington, has completed another successful new space in a building located on the University year of fostering collaborative research under of Washington’s south campus much nearer to its four major research themes: Climate, Marine collaborating units of Oceanography, Marine Affairs, Ecosystems, Environmental Chemistry and Coastal Fisheries, Atmospheric Sciences, Earth and Space Oceanography. These themes encompass the wide Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering and range of interests represented by JISAO and NOAA the Applied Physics Laboratory. The current plan scientists and are closely aligned with NOAA’s strategic is that JISAO will share the building with the new mission and goals. JISAO personnel also work in the and innovative College of the Environment (http:// Emergency Response Division to improve critical coenv.washington.edu/) and with the Program on the response information in emergency situations and Environment, UW’s largest interdisciplinary academic to reduce the human and environmental impacts of program, training both undergraduate and graduate pollution events. Additional JISAO employees work students in environmental studies (http://depts. in Information Technology in software programming, washington.edu/poeweb/). This collocation will allow web management and the development of datasets, increased collaborations across a broader area of the while other members of the JISAO staff provide University and will enhance the research of the NOAA engineering technical support. scientists at Pacific Marine Environmental Lab, the Alaska Fisheries Science Center and the Northwest JISAO’s research is at the forefront of investigations on Fisheries Science Center. climate change, global warming, ocean acidification, fisheries assessments and tsunami forecasting. JISAO’s JISAO global and regional topics of concern and most important resource is its staff. Recognition of interest to the public include: ability and accomplishment came in many ways this • enhancing research capabilities of UW and NOAA year and will be described in each theme section as well scientists, utilizing the diverse array of scientific as listed in Appendix 9, Award and Honors 2007-08, and technical expertise and specialized research Appendix 11, JISAO research publications for 2007-08, facilities within both institutions; and Appendix 12, most cited publications for the past • facilitating the training of the next generation of year. JISAO personnel are featured in Spotlight articles NOAA’s scientists by capitalizing on the UW’s on the main page at www.jisao.washington.edu and extraordinary strength in the geosciences and its archived at http://www.jisao.washington.edu/JISAO_ degree granting authority; admin/spotlight/index.html. JISAO media coverage • providing UW students the opportunity to is tracked in the News section of the website (current participate in NOAA research, thereby enriching articles on the main page at www.jisao.washington.edu their educational experience; and news archives at http://www.jisao.washington.edu/ • offering educational and outreach activities to JISAO_admin/newsarchives/index.html.) our local and regional communities through K-12 programs, student internships, training and recruitment programs, through media contacts and publications; and, • developing relationships with government agencies and industries in the state of Washington and throughout the Pacific Northwest with a view toward assisting NOAA in tailoring its climate forecasts and assessments to meet the needs of stakeholders. Previous page: Scientists and crewmembers of the US Coast Guard icebreaker Healy deploy a buoy for the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP, http://iabp.apl.washington.edu). Photo was taken by Andy Armstrong, NOAA. 2 Executive Summary Science Highlights Climate ISAO climate research has several major focal Science in the Earth System (CSES), which includes points: increasing understanding of the global the Climate Impacts Group (CIG). Interest in climate ocean through modeling and monitoring; change and climate impacts has increased dramatically, Jimproving knowledge of ocean-atmosphere coupling; a situation which has been reflected by the level of understanding atmospheric climate trends; and activity and the worldwide recognition of JISAO applying climate information in regional decision- research in these areas. The CIG has been funded at making processes. Much of the research in the first two the level of $1.5 million by Washington State to carry areas makes use of data from moored buoy arrays and out the Washington State Climate Change Impacts ARGO floats; participation in research cruises is also a Assessment. This assessment is the most detailed vitally important aspect. assessment to date of climate change impacts to Washington State. It was funded in spring 2007 by the Arctic ice extent was one of the key environmental Washington State Legislature under House Bill 1303 stories of the past year due to the substantial decline in and is being carried out jointly with partners from Arctic sea ice extent observed in the summer of 2007. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Washington Data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme State University. The assessment examines the impacts (IABP) have played a significant role in the detection of climate change on the following major sectors: and documentation of this change over the past several agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, hydrology and water decades. resources, infrastructure, and salmon. The data illustrate changes in arctic climate and The CIG has completed an assessment of sea level circulation and the relative age of sea ice, all of which rise in the coastal waters of Washington State due to contributed to the abrupt decline in ice extent in the combined effects of global sea level rise and local 2007. These data and related analyses were used by factors such as vertical land deformation and seasonal Department of the Interior Secretary Kempthorne in ocean elevation changes due to atmospheric circulation presentations this year (Figure 1). effects. This report was prepared in collaboration with the Washington Department of Ecology and provides Within JISAO, understanding climate trends and low, medium, and high estimates of sea level rise for applying climate information in the decision making 2050 and 2100 for the Puget Sound Basin, the central process are dominated by the work of the Center for and southern Washington Coast, and the Northwest Olympic Peninsula (Figure 2).