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W O Rld Energy T Echnology Outlook DM611498_COVER_dos7 29/11/06 10:19 Page 1 The World Energy Technology Outlook report (WETO-H2) provides a coherent framework to analyse the drivers and constraints in world energy to 2050, energy development and CO2 emissions. WETO-H2 presents three different scenarios for the future world energy system up to 2050: the Reference case, the Carbon constraint case and the Hydrogen case. The report highlights the main future energy, environmental and technological challenges that Europe will have to face in order to stay competitive while promoting new clean energy technologies. World Energy Technology Outlook - 2050 Energy Technology World WETO - H2 DM611498_COVER_dos7 29/11/06 10:19 Page 2 Interested in European research? SALES AND SUBSCRIPTIONS RTD info is our quarterly magazine keeping you in touch with main developments (results, programmes, events, etc). It is available in English, French and German. A free sample copy or free subscription can be obtained from: Publications for sale produced by the Office for Official Publications of the European Communities are available from European Commission our sales agents throughout the world. Directorate-General for Research Information and Communication Unit How do I set about obtaining a publication? B-1049 Brussels Once you have obtained the list of sales agents, contact the sales agent of your choice and place your order. Fax : (32-2) 29-58220 E-mail: [email protected] How do I obtain the list of sales agents? Internet: http://ec.europa.eu/research/rtdinfo/index_en. • Go to the Publications Office website http://publications.europa.eu/ • Or apply for a paper copy by fax (352) 2929 42758 Photograph courtesy of: © AIRBUS S.A.S.2005 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Research Directorate Energy E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/ Contact: Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero European Commission Office CDMA 05/142 B-1049 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] DM611498_COVER_dos7 29/11/06 10:19 Page 2 Interested in European research? SALES AND SUBSCRIPTIONS RTD info is our quarterly magazine keeping you in touch with main developments (results, programmes, events, etc). It is available in English, French and German. A free sample copy or free subscription can be obtained from: Publications for sale produced by the Office for Official Publications of the European Communities are available from European Commission our sales agents throughout the world. Directorate-General for Research Information and Communication Unit How do I set about obtaining a publication? B-1049 Brussels Once you have obtained the list of sales agents, contact the sales agent of your choice and place your order. Fax : (32-2) 29-58220 E-mail: [email protected] How do I obtain the list of sales agents? Internet: http://ec.europa.eu/research/rtdinfo/index_en. • Go to the Publications Office website http://publications.europa.eu/ • Or apply for a paper copy by fax (352) 2929 42758 Photograph courtesy of: © AIRBUS S.A.S.2005 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Research Directorate Energy E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/ Contact: Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero European Commission Office CDMA 05/142 B-1049 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] weto.qxd 13/11/06 11:27 Page 3 EUROPEAN COMMISSION World Energy Technology Outlook – WETO H2 2006 Directorate-General for Research EUR 22038 weto.qxd 13/11/06 11:27 Page 4 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Freephone number: 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 LEGAL NOTICE: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu). Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2006 ISBN 92-79-01636-9 ISSN 1018-5593 © European Communities, 2006 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Belgium PRINTED ON WHITE CHLORINE-FREE PAPER Table of contents Foreword......................................................................................................... 13 Key Messages................................................................................................. 14 Introduction .................................................................................................... 18 Chapter 1 Drivers and constraints in world energy to 2050 ...................... 19 1.1 The drivers of world economic growth......................................................................... 20 1.2 World fossil fuel resources .......................................................................................... 23 1.3 Technology portfolios in the WETO-H2 scenarios....................................................... 25 Chapter 2 Energy development and CO2 emissions .................................. 29 2.1 The geo-political and climate policy context................................................................ 29 2.2 The world energy balance and emission profile.......................................................... 31 2.3 Oil and gas production profiles in the Reference projection ....................................... 33 2.4 Primary energy consumption by region and inter-regional energy trade .................... 35 2.5 The development of electricity..................................................................................... 38 2.6 Hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage............................................... 40 2.7 World CO2 emissions .................................................................................................. 41 2.8 Trends in energy-related services ............................................................................... 42 2.9 Europe’s primary energy balance................................................................................ 45 2.10 Europe’s final consumption and electricity sector ....................................................... 48 2.11 Hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage in Europe .............................. 49 Chapter 3 Impacts of the Carbon Constraint Case..................................... 54 3.1 Methodological considerations .................................................................................... 54 3.2 The climate change challenge and greenhouse gas reduction targets....................... 54 3.3 The WETO-H2 Carbon Constraint case: Factor 2 reductions in 2050 for Annex B countries .................................................................................................. 57 III 3.4 Impacts on world primary energy ................................................................................ 59 3.5 Impacts on the electricity sector and on energy conversion ....................................... 61 3.6 Responses to the carbon constraint, world level......................................................... 63 3.7 The Carbon Constraint case in Europe....................................................................... 64 3.8 Responses to the carbon constraint in Europe ........................................................... 68 Chapter 4 Towards a Hydrogen Economy .................................................. 72 4.1 State of hydrogen technology...................................................................................... 72 4.1.1 Production of hydrogen ....................................................................................... 73 4.1.2 CO2 capture and storage (CCS).......................................................................... 79 4.1.3 Hydrogen transport and distribution .................................................................... 80 4.1.4 Hydrogen storage................................................................................................ 83 4.1.5 Conversion and final use..................................................................................... 84 4.2 Hydrogen technology pathways .................................................................................. 90 4.2.1 Pathway n° 1: “Centralised fossil fuel-based hydrogen production” ................... 91 4.2.2 Pathway n° 2: “Electricity-based hydrogen production” ...................................... 92 4.2.3 Quantitative assumptions .................................................................................... 94 4.3 Breakthroughs In hydrogen technology and priorities for research ............................ 96 4.3.1 Production of hydrogen ....................................................................................... 96 4.3.2 Hydrogen distribution and storage .................................................................... 100 4.3.3 End-use technologies........................................................................................ 100 4.4 Energy development and CO2 emissions in the H2 case .......................................... 102 4.4.1 World primary energy demand .......................................................................... 103 4.4.2 World energy-related
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