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Drought and Famine Relationships in Sudan: Policy Implications

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Drought and Famine Relationships in Sudan: Policy Implications RESEARCH REPORT DROUGHT AND FAMINE RELATIONSHIPS IN SUDAN: POLICY IMPLICATIONS Tesfaye Teklu Joachim von Braun Elsayed Zaki IFPRI Research Reports Publications Review Committee and Procedures Gunvant Desai, Chairman Ousmane Badiane Maarten Immink Romeo Bautista Nurul Islam Joachim von Braun Richard Sabot Christopher Delgado Stephen Vosti Barbara Rose (ex officio) All manuscripts submitted for publication as IFPRI Research Reports undergo extensive review. Prior to submission to the Publications Review Committee, manuscripts are circulated informally among the author's colleagues and presented in a formal seminar. Following submission to the Review Committee, four to five reviewers are selected. At least two reviewers are identified from outside IFPRI, one from inside IFPRI, and one from the Review Committee. Reviewers are chosen for their expertise in the manuscript's subject matter and methodology and, when applicable, their familiarity with the country setting. The author responds in writing to the reviewers' comments and resubmits the manuscript to the Review Committee after making any necessary revisions. The Review Committee then makes its recommendation on publication of the manuscript to the Director General of IFPRI. With the Director General's approval, the manuscript becomes part of the IFPRI Research Report series. IFPRI Board of Trustees Gerry Helleiner Yujiro Hayami Chairman, Canada Japan Roberto Junguito James Charles Ingram Vice Chairman, Colombia Australia Sjarifuddin Baharsjah Dharma Kumar Indonesia India David E. Bell Harris Mutio Mule U.S.A. Kenya G. Arthur Brown Nicholas H. Stem Jamaica United Kingdom Henri Carsalade M. Syeduzzaman France Bangladesh Anna Ferro-Luzzi Charles Valy Tuho Italy C6te d'lvoke Ibrahim Saad Ahmed Hagrass Just Faaland, Director General Egypt Ex Officio, Norway DROUGHT AND FAMINE RELATIONSHIPS IN SUDAN: POLICY IMPLICATIONS Tesfaye Teklu Joachim von Braun Elsayed Zaki Research Report 88 International Food Policy Research Institute Copyright 1991 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this report may be reproduced without the express permis- sion of but with acknowledgment to the Inter- national Food Policy Research Institute. Library of Congress Cataloging- in-Publication Data Tesfaye Teklu. Drought and famine relationships in Sudan : policy implications / Tesfaye Teklu, Joachim von Braun, Elsayed Zaki. p. cm. — (Research report / International Food Policy Research Institute ; 88) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-89629-091-3 1. Famines—Sudan. 2. Droughts—Sudan. 3. Food relief—Government policy—Sudan. 4. Drought relief—Government policy—Sudan. I. Von Braun, Joachim, 1950- . II. Zaki, Elsayed Ali Ahmed. III. Title. IV. Series: Research report (International Food Policy Research Institute) ; 88. HC835.Z9F38 1991 91-33091 363.8'09624—dc20 CIP CONTENTS Foreword 1. Summary 13 2. Famine Debate, Conceptual Framework, and Study Approach 17 3. Record of Drought and Household-Level Consequences in Western Sudan 25 4. Drought-Production Relationships 52 5. Prices and Market Disconnections During Famines 66 6. Implications of Drought and Famine for Consumption and Nutrition 83 7. Past Policies and Programs for Coping with Drought and Famine 102 8. Policy Conclusions 120 Appendix: The Relief and Rehabilitation Commission 127 Bibliography 129 TABLES 1. Years of famine and drought in Sudan reported by historians 26 2. Estimates of drought-affected population in western Sudan, 1984-86 30 3. Index of production, area, and yield of major crops in North- ern Kordofan, 1974-85 33 4. Household crop production in 10 Kordofan villages, 1983-88 33 5. Herd size and distribution among rural households in Kor- dofan, 1983-88 34 6. Change in growth rate and growth components of livestock in Kordofan, 1983-88 35 7. Variation in animal production response between normal and drought years in Southern Darfur 36 8. Short-term migration rates for selected survey villages in Kordofan, 1983-88 38 9. Farm size, labor use, and value of crop output in Kordofan, 1983-88 38 10. Time path of drought-coping responses in western Sudan 41 11. Crop diversification of farm households under drought in Kordofan, 1983-88 42 12. Arrival time of displaced population around Omdurman, 1984 42 13. Percentage and destination of migrants from sedentary households in East Kordofan, 1980/81-1986/87 43 14. Percentage of population migrated from East Bara, East So- dari, and Um Ruwaba, by destination, 1984-85 44 15. Maximum likelihood estimates for short-term migration of survey households, logit model 45 16. Livestock losses among sedentary farmers in East Kordofan, 1984-85 46 17. Shares of income sources, by income group and sex of family head, 1988 47 18. Distribution of households by source of income, Kordofan survey villages, 1984-85 48 19. Determinants of household income, Kordofan survey vil- lages, 1988/89 49 20. Monthly expenditure per capita for frequently consumed food items, Kordofan survey villages, 1989 50 21. Consumption responses of sample households, Kordofan survey villages, 1985 50 22. Relative shares of agricultural components of gross domestic product, Sudan, 1981-87 52 23. Shares of crop production in Sudan, by technology type, 1961-86 53 24. Average production shares of food crops, by main producing provinces, 1974-86 53 25. Estimated livestock population in Sudan, 1981-85, and growth rates, 1976-85 54 26. Growth rates of agricultural components of gross domestic product, Sudan, 1982-87 55 27. Average production, area, and yield of cereal crops in Sudan, 1961-86 55 28. Growth rates of production, area, and yield of cereal crops in Sudan, 1961-86 56 29. Growth rates of sorghum production, area, and yield in Su- dan, by technology, 1961-86 56 30. Average growth rates of production, area, and yield of food crops, by main producing provinces, 1974-86 57 31. Indices of production, area, and yield of cereal crops in Sudan, 1974-86 57 32. Relative variability in cereal crop production, area, and yield in Sudan, 1961-86 58 33. Mean rainfall and rainy days at selected stations, 1960-86 60 34. Distribution of mean rainfall, rainy days, and rain per day at selected stations, 1960-86 61 35. Parameter estimates of yield and production response equa- tions for cereal crops 63 36. Response of yield and production of rainfed cereal crops to a 10 percent change in rainfall index 65 37. Undeflated average wholesale prices for crops and cattle in selected markets, 1974-86 67 38. Average monthly wholesale prices for sorghum, millet, ses- ame, and cattle in selected markets, October 1983-January 1986 68 39. Terms of trade between cash crops and staple foods, as ratio of price indices, 1974-85 69 40. Terms of trade between livestock and sorghum, as ratio of price indices, 1974-85 70 41. Seasonal price indices for sorghum, millet, and cattle in selected markets, 1980-82 70 42. Average monthly prices for cattle at Nyala and Bara markets, 1984-85 71 43. Interregional wholesale price differences for sorghum, 1969/70-1985/86 73 44. Regression coefficients for tests of regional market integra- tion 75 45. Index of market integration for sorghum and cattle regional markets, 1982-86 76 46. Shares of marketing cost components for sorghum and mil- let, 1985-87 77 47. Regression equations for explanation of price flexibility and domestic terms-of-trade flexibility 81 48. Effects of production and stock changes for cereal prices and cereal-livestock terms of trade 81 49. Per capita expenditure and food share, by province and loca- tion, 1978-80 83 50. Per capita expenditure and income, family size, food share, and calorie consumption, by province and income quartile, 1978-80 84 51. Share of food components in total food budget, by province, 1978-80 85 52. Variation in food budget shares in Northern Darfur, by ex- penditure group, 1978-80 85 53. Selected own-price and expenditure elasticities, 1978-80 86 54. Share of food components in total calories, by province, 1978-80 87 55. Variation in income, expenditure, calorie consumption, fam- ily size, food share, and calorie price, urban Khartoum, 1978-80 88 56. Parameter estimates for calorie demand, by province 89 57. Elasticity estimates for calorie consumption, by province 89 58. Proportion of children below 80 percent and 70 percent of standard weight-for-height among sedentary population in Kordofan, 1985/86 94 59. Proportion of children under five years of age with below -2 Z-scores for standard indicators, 1986/87 96 60. Determinants of child nutrition: list of variables 99 61. Model analysis on determinants of nutrition: predicted grain consumption 100 62. Model analysis on determinants of nutrition: predicted child health 100 63. Model analysis on determinants of child nutrition status 101 64. Macroeconomic indicators for selected years, Sudan 104 65. Delivery of relief food to Kordofan, 1985-88 108 66. Relief food arrival time, amount distributed, and frequency in sample villages of Northern Kordofan, 1984/85 109 67. Food aid targeted and received in districts of Northern Kor- dofan, May-October 1985 110 68. Sample of ongoing rehabilitation activities in Northern Kordofan, 1988/89 111 69. Index of gum arabic production, 1974-87 112 70. Trends in gum belt project participation, 1981-88 113 71. Density, farm size, and yield for low- and high-density farms in gum belt villages, 1989 114 72. Grain production before, during, and after the 1984 drought, by participation in the Jebel Marra Project 115 73. Household size and percentage of female heads of household in extension villages of the Jebel Marra area 116 74. Distribution of refugees in Jebel Marra area, Darfur, by agro-ecological zone, 1984/85-1985/86 116 75. Cooperative credit program in El Obeid district, Kordofan: loan participation and performance, 1980/81-1988/89 118 ILLUSTRATIONS 1. Determinants of and relationships in famines 20 2. Paths of household response to declining food entitlement 22 3. Overview of the focus of the analysis 23 4.
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