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GLOBALIZATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN LESS INDUSTRIALIZED SOCIETIES: AT-RISK POPULATIONS AND THE SOCIOLOGY OF HUNGER

DISSERTATION

Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for

the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate

School of The Ohio State University

By

Stephen J. Scanlan, M.A.

*****

The Ohio State University

2000

Dissertation Committee Approved by: Professor J. Craig Jenkins, Adviser

Professor Edward Crenshaw hser Professor Katherine Meyer Depj of Sociology UMI Number: 9994934

Copyright 2001 by Scanlan, Stephen James

All rights reserved.

UMI

UMI Microform 9994934 Copyright 2001 by Bell & Howell Information and teaming Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code.

Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ABSTRACT

At the present moment over 840 million people throughout the world do not have enough food to meet basic nutritional needs, with 200 million or more children under the age of five experiencing undemutrition in less industrialized countries. This is the case despite increasing food availability that has created a global surplus in the last few decades. This project examines the multiple structural determinants of food security. Because it is a complex concept with links to ethnic and gender inequality, globalization, persistent violent conflict, population pressure, poverty, rural-urban disarticulation, technological change, and uneven development, food security is an essential consideration for sociology.

I examine the determinants of food supply and distribution in less industrialized societies

in the context of sweeping globalization processes and patterns of inequality, specifically

addressing dietary energy supply and protein availability per capita, hunger in the total

population, and child hunger. I focus on the links between food security and stratification as it

relates to the most at-risk groups in developing countries: children, ethnic minorities, rural

populations, and women. I use a lagged-panel statistical design and cross-national data for less

industrialized countries from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank and

other sources. I test and integrate multiple theories of stratification and social change including

dependency, ethnic antagonisms, modernization, neo-Malthusian, military famine, techno-

ecological, urbanization, and women in development perspectives. Expanding upon classic

u "entitlements" arguments by Amartya Sen and colleagues I find that food security is largely about distribution of existing supplies and I explore the structural factors that disrupt countries' and individuals' abilities to take advantage of the global food surplus.

Findings indicate that although globalization, modernization and techno-ecological perspectives can explain growth in food availability, barriers such as absolute poverty, ethnic and gender discrimination, the military burden and conflicts, and rural-urban inequality reveal that the benefits of economic prosperity and increased food supply do not improve the experience of persistent hunger among large portions of the global population. In this regard ethnic antagonisms, military famine, urbanization, and women in development perspectives provide important explanations for food security problems while dependency and neo-Malthusian perspectives contribute much less. Food security research must focus on the economic, political, and social processes that result in hunger, borrowing from and synthesizing numerous perspectives on stratification and social change and thus establishing greater relevance for sociological analysis in this area. Furthermore, the use of cross-national methods is an additional contribution of this research to the food security and development literature and this study not only helps to fill a sociological void on an important global issue, but also has potential for policy impact beyond the academy.

ui Dedicated to my dad, may he rest in peace

IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

There are numerous people I wish to thank for their assistance during the completion of this research. I first wish to acknowledge the encouragement and insight of Craig Jenkins, my adviser and mentor, whose drive and commitment to excellence in scholarship are an inspiration.

Furthermore, I am grateful to Kay Meyer and Ed Crenshaw who provided much wisdom and support in challenging me produce quality scholarly work. Be it in the classroom or as members of my dissertation committee I could not have asked for better people to give me the knowledge and guidance that I needed to complete this work.

I am greatly appreciative of my colleagues and fnends in the Department of Sociology at

The Ohio State University for their support during this whole process. Being surrounded by people who provide kind words and a supportive work environment has made completing the dissertation possible and more enjoyable. I am especially appreciative of my "co-dissertators,"

Mikaela Dufur, Ann Marie Flores, Ken Litwin, Adam Moskowitz, and Helen Rizzo for their comradery during this time.

I would like to thank my family for their continued support and understanding during this process, especially my mother who has always encouraged me to try and do my best and

nothing more, no strings attached. Their encouragement has meant a lot, and their uncanny

ability to somehow know when or when not to inquire as to how my work was progressing was greatly appreciated, especially when it was not always clear to them just what exactly 1 was doing, nor exactly when I would complete this project.

In addition, I am grateful for the fnendship, love and support of my partner, Nicole

Yandell, who more than anyone knows what I have gone through in the writing of this dissertation. Her understanding and willingness to put up with me during this difficult process is more than anyone should be expected to do, and for that 1 will be forever indebted.

Finally, this research was supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Graduate School at The Ohio State University and a travel grant from the Graduate School Alumni. Additional support was derived from research assistant positions made possible by the National Science

Foundation and the Mershon Center for International Security in addition to teaching positions in the Department of Sociology at The Ohio State University.

VI VITA

February 21, 1971 ...... Bom - Circleville, Ohio

1993 ...... Bj \. Sociology, The University of Dayton

1993 - present ...... Graduate Fellow, Teaching Associate, and Research Associate, The Ohio State University

PUBLICATIONS

Research publications

1. Scanlan, Stephen J. "Food Availability and Access in Less-Industrialized Societies: A Test and Interpretation of Neo-Malthusian and Techno-Ecological Theories." Sociological Forum. Forthcoming, (June 2001).

2. Scanlan, Stephen J. and J. Craig Jenkins. "Military Power and Food Security: A Cross- National Analysis of Less Developed Countries, 1970-1990." International Studies Quarterly. Forthcoming, (March 2001).

3. Scanlan, Stephen J. and Seth L. Feinberg. "The Cartoon Society: Using The Simpsons to Teach and Learn Sociology." Teaching Sociology 2%, 127-139, (2000).

Book Review

1. Scanlan, Stephen J. Review of Popular Politics: Renewing Democracy for a Sustainable World, by George W. Shepherd, Jr. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 5,141-142, (1999).

Other Work

1. Contributor to Rousseau, Nathan J., ed. Internationalizing Sociology in the Age of Globalization. Washington, D.C.: The American Sociological Association (1999).

vu FIELDS OF STUDY

Major Field: Sociology Specialization in comparative social change

vm TABLE OF CONTENTS

A bstract ...... ii

Dedication ...... iv

Acknowledgments ...... v

Vita...... vii

List of Tables ...... xi

Chapters:

1. Introduction ...... I 1.1 Introduction ...... 1 1.2 Contributions of this Research ...... 5

2. Food Security and Globalization: Concepts and Theoretical Perspectives ...... 11 2.1 Introduction ...... 11 2.2 The Sociology of Hunger? ...... 12 2.3 Food Security: Conceptualization and Perspective ...... 13 2.4 The Globalization Imperative ...... 25 2.5 Theoretical Perspectives on Food Security ...... 31 2.6 Conclusion ...... 65

3. Methods and D ata ...... 69 3.1 Introduction ...... 69 3.2 M ethods ...... 73 3.3 Dependent Variable: Food Security ...... 74 3.4 Independent Variables ...... 84 3.5 Conclusion ...... 112

4. The Determinants of Food Availability in Less Industrialized Societies: A Consideration of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply ...... 118 4.1 Introduction ...... 118 4.2 Findings ...... 119 4.3 Discussion ...... 135

IX 5. Food Distribution and Hunger in the Total Population ...... 153 5.1 Introduction ...... 153 5.2 Findings ...... 154 5.3 Discussion ...... 165

6. Child Hunger and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity ...... 180 6.1 Introduction ...... 180 6.2 Findings ...... 181 6.3 Discussion ...... 192

7. Conclusions: Sociology and the Study of Food Security ...... 207 7.1 Introduction ...... 207 7.2 The Contributions of Theory ...... 207 7.3 Discussion ...... 225 7.4 Directions for Future Research ...... 237 7.5 Conclusion ...... 239

References ...... 242

Appendix A ...... 263

Appendbc B ...... 270 LIST OF TABLES

Table Page

1.1 Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), 1998 ...... 10

2.1 Food Wars by Region and Country, 1998 ...... 68

3.1 Means, Standard Deviations, and Trends in Dependent Variable ...... 114

3.2 Means and Standard Deviations in 1990 Food Security Outcome Variables Related to Women in Development ...... 115

3.3 Bivariate Correlations of Dependent Variables and Related Food Security Outcome Variables, circa 1990 ...... 116

3.4 Means and Trends for Globalization Measures, 1970-1990 ...... 117

4.1 Base Model and Lagged Panel Regression of Globalization Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 142

4.2 Lagged Panel Regression of Modernization Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 143

4.3 Lagged Panel Regression of Dependency Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 144

4.4 Lagged Panel Regression of Urbanization Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 145

4.5 Lagged Panel Regression of Neo-Malthusian Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 146

4.6 Lagged Panel Regression of Techno-Ecological Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 147

4.7 Lagged Panel Regression of Women in Development Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 148

XI 4.8 Lagged Panel Regression of Military Famine Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 149

4.9 Lagged Panel Regression of Ethnic Antagonism Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 150

4.10 Lagged Panel Regression of Multiple Theoretical Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita ...... 151

5.1 Lagged Panel Regression of Base Model and Globalization Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 170

5.2 Lagged Panel Regression of Modernization Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 171

5.3 Lagged Panel Regression of Dependency Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 172

5.4 Lagged Panel Regression of Urbanization Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 173

5.5 Lagged Panel Regression of Neo-Malthusian Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 174

5.6 Lagged Panel Regression of Techno-Ecological Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 175

5.7 Lagged Panel Regression of Women in Development Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 176

5.8 Lagged Panel Regression of Military Famine Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 177

5.9 Lagged Panel Regression of Ethnic Antagonisms Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 178

5.10 Lagged Panel Regression of Multiple Theoretical Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population ...... 179

6.1 Lagged Panel Regression of Base Model and Globalization Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 197

6.2 Lagged Panel Regression of Modernization Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 198

6.3 Lagged Panel Regression of Dependency Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 199

xii 6.4 Lagged Panel Regression of Urbanization Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 200

6.5 Lagged Panel Regression of Neo-Malthusian Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 201

6.6 Lagged Panel Regression of Techno-Ecological Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 202

6.7 Lagged Panel Regression of Women in Development Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 203

6.8 Lagged Panel Regression of Military Famine Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 204

6.9 Lagged Panel Regression of Ethnic Antagonisms Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 205

6.10 Lagged Panel Regression of Multiple Theoretical Determinants of Child Hunger ...... 206

7.1 Summary of Most Proximate Theoretical Contributions to Final,Combined Model Sequence for Each Dependent Measure of Food Security ...... 241

xm CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

Introduction

To modify an example from the Nordic Conference on Environment and Development

(1987) cited by Drèze and Sen (1989:37), imagine the press coverage that would result if a school bus full of pre-school children crashed and there were no survivors. Every night for at least a week television networks from around the globe would report on the tragedy, providing analysis of its causes and consequences, talking to grieving relatives and friends, and discussing means to prevent such an event from happening in the future. Now, imagine that if every day o f the year there were over 400 identical crashes around the world resulting in more than 16,000 children per day dying from their occurrence (Unicef 1998). That is a bus crash approximately every three and a half minutes, or nearly 17 crashes per hour killing over 660 kids. What type of response would result? At what point would the global citizenship decree that enough was enough and that these crashes must be prevented? Such is the global situation with regard to hunger* and its consequences. At the present moment more than 840 million people throughout the world, concentrated mainly in less industrialized societies, do not have enough food to meet basic nutritional needs (UNFPA 1999).

In the poorest countries alone over 200 million children under the age of five experience undemutrition that contributes to more than half of their 12 million deaths each year (Unicef

1998). As Table 1.1 reveals the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations'

Special Programme for Food Security (1998) reports that there presently exist 83 "low-income food-deficit" countries (LIFDCs) which are the most vulnerable, chronically poor, net-importers of food that are home to the overwhelming majority of the world's hungry. Although the proportion of hungry individuals relative to the total population has fallen over the last several decades, food insecurity as a global issue remains alarmingly real. While attention of late has focused upon war-torn and famine stricken parts of Sub-Saharan Africa such as chronic problems in Sierra Leone, Somalia, and the Sudan among others, hunger is a global concern with other LIFDCs such as Afghanistan, Cambodia, Haiti, North Korea, and Bolivia exhibiting persistent problems in their respective regions. With poor distribution of existing food supplies, economic development discrepancies, population pressure, poverty, and ongoing civil and ethnic conflict, food security threats remain with each passing day. This is not only reality for the child

"crash" victims denoted above, but also other threatened groups including ethnic minorities, rural inhabitants, women, and people everywhere living in absolute poverty. Food security is critical

* Here and throughout this analysis I use the term hunger to imply a structural condition of deprivation that effects populations at various levels of analysis, be it individual, family, state levels or higher. Thus, although Devereux (1993:13) notes that hunger can be considered an individual's perception of the need to eat meaning that an obese person can feel as hungry as the poor, such a micro-level approach to the term is misleading in that it detracts &om hunger's links to other conditions such as famine, food security, and undemutrition which I treat as "structural." to examine as the global economy enters the next century, and research must explore its causes

and consequences so as better to understand its complexities and continue to improve the global

hunger situation.

The second half of the twentieth century has been a unique moment in time in that social

change processes have been more rapid and far-reaching than any other era of human history.

Although often reduced to a "small world" or "shrinking planet" cliche, the power of

globalization as an engine of social change and its importance to food security should not be

underestimated (see Friedmann 1982; French 2000; McMichael 1997, 1999). As detailed below,

globalization can be viewed in a variety of ways so for now it will suffice to consider it to be an

increase in cross-border interaction and interdependency among societies in economic, political,

and social affairs. These interactions can occur at numerous levels of analysis. For example, at

the individual level there are increasingly large numbers traveling abroad or working overseas,

while at the same time goods that are purchased locally have been produced in a global

marketplace. At other levels there are institutional interactions between non-governmental

organizations and multi-national corporations in addition to contact and communication between

states bilaterally or through more diffuse means as with inter-govemmental organizations such as

the European Union or the United Nations. Although usually considered to be primarily an

economic force, a broader conceptualization that captures institutional dynamics of other forms

is essential so as not to neglect the important role that socio-political influences have in these

processes. In this regard, other institutions of social change such as educational systems, the

military, religion, and political forces such as democratization and an international push for

human rights and "global citizenship" (Shepherd 1997) interweave with the internationalization of the economy. The world has thus increasingly become a global system, having profound importance to food security and development in less industrialized societies..

In this analysis I examine the relationship between globalization and food availability and access as indicated by the per capita dietary energy and protein supply, child hunger, and hunger in the total population that are linked to these processes. More specifically, I examine the theoretical contributions of sociology and the explanatory capabilities of several macro-structural perspectives on economic and social development including modernization, dependency, urbanization, neo-Malthusian, techno-ecological, women in development, military famine, and ethnic antagonisms approaches. I explore how globalization as a macro-structural force that is replacing development studies in academic and policy circles relates to each of these perspectives and food security in less industrialized countries. I take a particular interest in the well-being of the most at-risk groups in the population including children, minorities at risk, the

rural poor, and women. Because it is hypothesized that food security is largely about problems

in distribution of the existing food supply, hunger in the population must be attributed to

structural factors that disrupt countries' and individuals' ability to take advantage of the global

food surplus. Thus, although a macro-concept, globalization has far-reaching consequences that

extend to individuals throughout the world and in this analysis I examine the positive and

negative consequences of this trend as a context to development well-being.

Children, especially girls, are most susceptible to hunger, undemutrition, and associated

diseases (Bennett 1987; Unicef 1998). The important contributions of women with regard to

food security and development have often been discounted or gone totally unrecognized and

therefore un-rewarded in addition to being denied ownership of the land they harvest and

products that they produce as the most important agricultural workers in less industrialized countries (Saeger 1997). Furthermore, the prevalence of ethnic strife throughout many regions of the globe has resulted in systematic denial of food rights to minority groups at risk for political and economic discrimination in the numerous instances of food being used as a weapon of war. There have been a number of case and regional studies (Cheatham 1994; Macrae and

Zwi 1994) that address these concerns, but little cross-national analysis that empirically evaluates food security at the global level (see Bullock and Firebaugh 1990; Wimberley and

Bello 1992).

This analysis not only contributes to filling the sociological void on the issue of food security, but also addresses an important topic of interest to a wider audience including development agencies, hunger activists, policymakers, non-govemmental organizations, and a research community that cuts across a number of disciplines. By integrating numerous theories of social change into an analysis of the economic, political, and social dynamics of food security as it relates to globalization and international stratification, this research makes an important contribution to the hunger literature and studies in human development and global social change.

Contributions of this Research

This analysis makes a number of important contributions to research on food security

and development. Not only does this establish an important role for sociology in addressing a

key issue with relevance to economic, political, and social concerns but it does so in a way that

integrates and synthesizes existing theories of social change and expands their application from

development to consideration of globalization. In doing this increased sociological attention can

be given to one of the most important macro-structural trends in contemporary world societies

reinforcing the importance of cross-national research in sociology and its potential for

contributing to the understanding of global social change. In addition, this analysis expands existing food security research by elaborating upon and extending the "entitlement perspective" pioneered by Sen (1981) and colleagues (Drèze and

Sen 1989, Drèze et al 1995) by emphasizing the importance of food security as a problem of access and distribution more than concerns with simple availability. In doing this 1 call attention to the vulnerability of certain groups in less industrialized societies. In focusing upon problems of distribution and links to inequality and stratification in developing societies, this analysis gives more credence to the political and human-made sources of famine in these societies that make hunger a social phenomenon that should attract wide attention from sociologists. On this point, as a sociologist 1 am not concerned so much then with how much food is available, but

"who gets what" with regard to the existing supply. 1 thus examine the classic question that lies at the core of social stratification, only now doing so with the social good being hunger instead of income, wealth, or other material determinant of inequality in the contemporary world.

Testing multiple perspectives is essential to providing a complete analysis of food security. In this analysis 1 deal with several "thematics" that are important. 1 consider these thematics in that not all are formal theories but instead variations or components of approaches that arise when considering the complex dynamics of food security. In this regard, these concepts are given greater credence and independence while at the same time being highlighted for their relevance to broader considerations with regard to theories of development and social change. Thus, various bodies of literature such as the women in development and military famine perspectives as well as ethnic antagonisms and urbanization approaches are singled out

for their theoretical relevance and contributions, but not as formalized theories.

By entertaining competing and/or complementary approaches to food security and

development, this research can clarify where these overlap or invalidate each other. This is important in that these perspectives are not mutually exclusive explanations, and this analysis will help synthesize and integrate them into a more comprehensive look at the complexities of food security. For example, variants of urbanization perspectives are not entirely distinct firom dependency and world system theories, just as much of what human ecologists claim regarding diffusion and technological innovation has close links to modernization theory. In this regard, application and tightening of theoretical perspectives on food security and development is an essential and complex contribution of this research.

An important theoretical contribution of this analysis is an elaboration upon Sen's (1981) entitlement theory approach to food security. By considering the importance of and debates regarding the rights of individuals to economic well-being, food security, health, reproductive rights, and freedom from political oppression, this research develops a more broadly construed conceptualization of entitlements than Sen who focuses primarily on personal property. By elaborating on the "right to food" component of food security linked to distribution and the ability of each theoretical perspective to account for these processes, this research tightens up the stratification considerations essential to hunger in less industrialized societies and how patterns akin to global processes affect them. Such an approach emphasizes the importance of examining the impact of inequalities in access on children, the rural poor, at-risk minority populations, and women. By focusing upon the food security experience of these groups this issue becomes more closely linked to the politics of food distribution and the institutional and organization dynamics that are essential to imderstanding politics and power in a macro-structural context and its

importance to the "social stratification of food" at the global level (see Bennett 1987).

On this note, an additional extension of Sen is to examine the issue of food security at the cross-national level which is an important methodological contribution of this analysis. Too little is known about the generalizability of various trends regarding food security beyond a handful of cases or certain regions in the developing world. This is especially the case with regard to examining food access which has received little attention at this level of analysis. By exploring the dynamics of food security with regard to global patterns of social change, and a sample of numerous less industrialized societies this analysis can provide a clearer understanding of the macro-structural factors of most importance in the contemporary world.

In sum, this research establishes a strong foundation for a future of more truly sociological analyses of an important issue that has received little attention in the discipline.

This is true despite its relevance to core ideas such as culture, demography, social change, stratification, and the dynamics of social institutions and how they impact individuals in society.

This is especially important with regard to considering the contributions of larger sample cross­ national analyses such as this. Through convergence, integration, and synthesis of existing theories and the application of rigorous modeling methods, then, sociology can continue to play an important role in food security research and the importance of globalization in this area of human well-being.

While considering the relevance of sociology to the study of food security in less industrialized societies and establishing a greater role for the discipline in pursuing studies of this sort, it is also important to note what this analysis is not and what its limitations are relative to other research in this realm. I focus on the sociological factors concerning food security and therefore emphasize social factors instead of more "natural" conditions contributing to hunger.

Therefore, 1 make no effort for example, to explore the impacts of climatic change such as in the important effects of El Nino or declining rainfall nor do 1 consider the presence of natural disasters and their impacts on food security. Hunger is a volatile concept to consider, especially

8 when looking at a long period of time in which there are likely to be numerous peaks and valleys. In this regard there are a variety of agronomical, anthropological, ecological, and spatial considerations which researchers may typically consider but that I have not explored. I am well aware of the numerous approaches to understanding food security and approach this project as a means to not only more firmly establish sociology's place in this body of work, but open up possibilities for interdisciplinary explorations that link social processes more clearly to natural phenomena which is especially imperative with regard to hunger that clearly straddles both.

In the chapters that follow I first explore the meaning of food security and its various components and then elaborate on each of the theoretical perspectives of interest. Following this

I present the methods and data considerations which I follow up with empirical analyses of dietary energy and protein supply, hunger in the total population, and child hunger. Lastly I tie each of these results together and present the larger ramifications of this research and directions

for future research. Africa (n=42)

Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Côte D'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome et Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Zambia

Asia and Oceania (n=24)

Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tokelau, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Yemen

Latin America and the Carribean (n=7)

Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua

Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union (n=10)

Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization Special Programme for Food Security 1998.

Table 1.1: Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), 1998.

10 CHAPTER 2

FOOD SECURITY AND GLOBALIZATION:

CONCEPTS AND THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES

Introduction

Sociological literature on and analysis of food security is for the most part absent from academic writing. Left largely to agronomists, agricultural economists, demographers, ecologists, geographers, population analysts, and policy specialists among others, studies of the causes and consequences of hunger have only minimally infiltrated sociological dialogue. This is the case despite the significance of stratification and numerous theories of development, international inequality, and social change to the food security. Furthermore, food security has important dynamics akin to each of the major social institutions in society that comprise the core of sociological writing and research. For example, be it the economics of food production, intra­ family distribution patterns of nutrition, or the politics of food aid policy, food security and human well-being derived from it are grounded in macro-structural factors that have micro-level consequences.

In this chapter I discuss the oddity of sociological neglect of food security concerns, following up with food security definitions and trends, the central place of globalization on this issue, and the various theoretical perspectives on hunger.

11 The Sociology of Hanger?

A good gauge of the basic foundations that are most important to a discipline is what can be found on the pages of its introductory textbooks or within its top academic journals. Scanning the indices and pages of the numerous introductory sociology texts reveals that food security and hunger appear to seemingly have little to do with sociology. The same is true when perusing the volumes of texts more likely to discuss the issue, such as those for stratification/inequality or social problems classrooms. Even where hunger does appear, it is only as a consequence of other concerns as in chapters on population growth or global environmental change and thus not appearing to merit sociological discussion on its own accords. Furthermore, such links to only the "Malthusian question" do a great disservice to understanding the complexities of food security in that treatment is limited to what is only a small part of the hunger dynamic.

The same lack of presence is true in major sociological journals as well, with The

American Sociological Review containing no food security-specific research in its long history, while The American Journal o f Sociology and Social Forces contributing only a few pieces that have direct significance (e.g., Friedmann 1982; Wimberley and Bello 1992). Other articles concerning food security certainly exist in these journals, though examining it less directly or in relation to other factors such as urbanization or economic growth (e.g., Bradshaw et al 1993;

Firebaugh and Beck 1994). Similarly and perhaps more surprisingly, examining the pages of the journal Social Problems since its first issue nearly 50 years ago would lead one to believe that hunger is not a social problem at all. Research on hunger and food security pitched to a sociological audience, though important as they are, have been relegated to more isolated outlets with little exposure to "mainstream" sociology journals (e.g.. Babbie 1982; Cereseto 1977; de

Janvry 1976; Friedmann 1993; McMichael 1997; Wells et al 1983).

12 The absence of what I would consider to be a firmly established "sociology of hunger" should not be misconstrued as an indication that food security analysis is irrelevant to sociology, for this is nor should not be the case. Instead, one should view this as an opportunity of great potential to apply the theories and methods of sociology to an area of great global significance.

Sociology has much to contribute to the analysis of food security concerns and is in a unique position in that it is especially well-suited to incorporate the interdisciplinary perspective

necessary to examine this issue thoroughly and in the most appropriate fashion. By utilizing the theoretical and methodological tools of sociology and incorporating the comparative perspective,

a more complete understanding of the factors contributing to food security success can be better

applied to meet future concerns in this area of research. I thus argue for a greater role for

sociology in examining food security and adapting theory, data, and method to increase

understanding of complexities.

Food Security: Conceptualization and Perspective

The concept of food security gained prominence at the World Food Conference of 1974

where it became associated with the concern for the food self-sufficiency of individual countries

(Babu and Quian 1994:213). In its evolution, the concept has shifted from food production and

importing capabilities at the macro-level to focus on individuals and their ability to avoid hunger

and underautrition (Foster 1992). Reutlinger et al define food security as "access by all people at

all times to enough food for an active healthy life" ( 1986:1 ) a definition similar to that of the

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP 1990) which says food security exists when

"... all people at all times have both physical and economic access to basic

food. This requires not just enough food to go around. It requires that people

have ready access to food —that they have an 'entitlement* to food, by growing it

13 for themselves, by buying it or by taking advantage of a public food distribution

system. The availability of food is thus a necessary condition of security —but

not a sufficient one. People can still starve even when enough food is available."

Food security thus entails more than simple availability of food supply but also has other more complex dimensions.

For example, Tweeten (1997) notes that food security is comprised of three components: food availability, food access, and food utilization. The first d i m e n s i o n , availability, refers to the supply of foodstuffs in a country. Food can come from agricultural production within the country or through imports from external sources be they the international marketplace or food assistance programs. In this regard, there is a "bread basket" of food available for a population to consume, though this concept says nothing about how this is distributed. Thus, one must also consider a second dimension,Tboef access. Food access refers to individual ability to acquire food for consumption, be it through purchase, non-market production, or public assistance. In this regard, food may be plenteously available but not necessarily accessible. Tweeten therefore reinforces the UNDP notion that food security concerns more than improvement in agricultural productivity, but also considers distribution patterns and concerns. Finally, there is also a third dimension,^<%/ utilization, which concerns the physical use of food derived from human consumption. It may be true that food is available to which individuals have access, but vitamin deficiencies or health problems may result from an imbalanced diet, tainted water supplies, or poor preparation of food that is consumed. Utilization therefore means that food security encompasses larger questions that link availability and access considerations to basic health and its relationship to a country's economic and social development and ability to meet the basic needs of its population. In sum, for food security to exist, there must be a reliable supply of

14 food, individuals and countries must be able to acquire it, and once acquired be able to derive nutritional well-being from it in the form of a healthy diet.

Paralleling Tweeten's distinctions between the various components of food security,

Uvin (1994) similarly notes that food security entails discussion of food shortage, food poverty, and food deprivation. Food shortage concerns the supply of food available to the population within a geographic area be it villages or cities, regions of countries, whole countries, continents, or the entire world. Food shortage occurs, simply enough, when food availability is insufficient given the needs of people in a designated area (Uvin 1994:1). Thus, this concept parallels

Tweeten's concept of availability in that it concerns itself strictly with stocks of food and says nothing of its distribution or nutritional content. As Uvin (1994) and others (Foster and Leathers

1999; Lappé, Collins, and Rosset 1998) note, global food supply data do not reveal a food shortage problem as agricultural production has kept pace with population growth over the last few decades in addition to producing enough carryover stocks from year to year to develop reserves to be utilized in the instance of emergency needs (Uvin 1994:2-3). In this regard, and as noted above, food supply cannot explain world hunger on its own.

Thus, Uvin continues noting that food poverty exists when households are unable "to obtain sufficient food to meet the nutritional needs of their members due to inadequate income, poor access to productive resources, inability to benefit from private or public food transfers, or lack of other entitlements to food" ( 1994:10). Paralleling the concept of access noted by

Tweeten, then, food poverty exists without the presence of food shortage. In addition, although

Uvin focuses on the household level, food poverty can also be extrapolated to other levels of analysis including individuals or countries, the latter of these being imperative to this study.

Food poverty as a concept emphasizes the overlapping links between poverty and hunger, with

15 trends in one reflecting trends in the other (Uvin 1994:14). However, one should not stop with simple economic ability to acquire food, for although this is considered the most essential, there are other forms of food poverty created in the systematic denial of peoples and nations access to the food necessary to live healthy and active lives, be it ethnicity, gender, rural-urban differences, or other forms of discrimination.

Finally, Uvin's concept of food deprivation gets at the nutritional adequacy of food that

is available and accessible. Certainly individuals may fall short of obtaining sufficient food to meet nutritional needs because of food shortage or food poverty, but as Uvin notes it may also be due to special needs that exist among certain groups in society (1994:16). Thus, when considering food security one could examine the needs of pregnant and lactating women, for example, or the birth weight of newborn infants to reveal the extent of food deprivation among groups with specific needs. Once again, a parallel exists with Tweeten in that deprivation and

utilization are tapping the same notion of an individual’s ability to achieve a balanced diet. This concept is closely tied to the other components of food security. In fact, it may be so much so that it is difficult to easily disentangle measures of this theoretical concept empirically. I discuss this difficulty in further detail below.

Whether one uses the Tweeten's or Uvin's terminology, it is essential to account the

economic, social, and political aspects of food security, thus addressing production and supply as

well as distribution and nutritional outcomes (Oshaug, Eide, and Hide 1994). It is the complexity

that makes food security interesting as a component of human development and also for its

embeddedness in globalization processes, politics, and the international political economy that

have important outcomes for individuals, especially those most vulnerable to inequalities in

distribution thus making studies of food security of considerable sociological interest

16 Food Security, Social Structure, and Famine. Using "food insecurity" in place of hunger is more than mere semantics, for it focuses on social structure and the distress associated with populations that do not have a guaranteed access to food (Poppendieck 1998:79). To further clarify using individual food security as an example, Poppendieck notes that "people who have just finished a hearty meal at a soup kitchen may not be 'hungry* in the everyday sense of the word, but they may still suffer from 'food insecurity* if they do not know where their next meal is coming from" (1998:80). Similarly, food insecurity can be simply described as "when people must live with hunger and fear starvation" (Food and Agriculture Organization 1999:1). Parallel to focusing on the lives of individuals, this logic also applies cross-nationally to explain country- level food security as is of interest in this analysis in that food relief in times of famine may temporarily reduce hunger, but not resolve the need for food security. Furthermore, poor countries like poor individuals, have no guaranteed means of maintaining sustenance short of producing food for internal consumption which is increasingly unlikely in this time of globalization and export-driven food markets. In addition, even if the poorest and least- industrialized countries were able to be self-sufficient, they would be highly vulnerable to fluctuations in availability and disruptions in food access due to drought, conflict, and other natural disasters and socially-created food disasters resulting from human interaction in the fragile global ecosystem.

To further emphasize the significance of food security as a concept and its links to famine, it can be couched nicely in the broader notion of "human security" that has become increasingly important to questions of economic development and meeting the basic needs of the global citizeiuy in the post-Cold War era. The United Nations Development Programme

17 (1994:22-43) summarizes the importance of understanding and addressing human security. As the United Nations Development Programme (1994:22) claims

"The concept of security has for too long been interpreted narrowly: as security

of territory from external aggression, or as protection of national interests in

foreign policy or as global security from the threat of nuclear holocaust. It has

been related more to nation-states than to people."

In this regard security related solely to peacekeeping, most notably linked to the Cold War and the geopolitical posturing associated with it Today, however, the largest threats to security are at the sub-national level and the quality of life that individuals have. Thus, as the UNDP

(1994:22) notes that for most people

"Security symbolized protection from the threat of disease, hunger,

unemployment, crime, social conflict, political repression and environmental

hazards . . . A feeling of insecurity arises more from worries about daily life than

from the dread of a cataclysmic world event."

Security has therefore been much more loosely regarded so as to become people-centered and

focused on human development and well-being. Links to more traditional notions of security

such as state stability and conflict certainly remain relevant but now are viewed as resulting from

breakdowns in human security. For example, state failure to recognize certain communities

within its borders can lead to conflict while natural resources scarcity can cause "water wars" or

an inability to afford food riots thus threatening state security. In this regard, numerous new

challenges to global security of the human form exist (Klare 1996), and it is in addressing these

with prevention and early warning efforts that security can be best maintained. Although food

security is of most interest in this analysis, it is important to note its interdependency on and

18 relationships with other forms of human security including community security, economic security, environmental security, health security, personal security, and political security (UNDP

1994).

In this context it is best to consider food security first and foremost as a macro-structural condition thus making it largely a public issue. There are certainly severe micro-level consequences of various structural factors giving rise to food insecurity in less industrialized societies, but such "faces of hunger" should not misplace one's focus on the reality of its root causes and what is to blame for its existence. To modify an example used by Mills (1959:8-9), a single hungry person in a city of 100,000 is certainly a personal trouble for that individual, and for alleviating the burden one need not examine much beyond the personal characteristics of that person and the opportunities he or she has for improving their well-being. On the other hand 15 million hungry people in a country with 50 million people is a public issue whose causes are much less likely to be found in the characteristics of that large a number of individuals, but instead located in the conditions of society that gave rise to their current situation. To again apply Mills (1959:9) to the structural condition of hunger, "the very structure of opportunities has collapsed. Both the correct statement of the problem and the range of possible solutions require us to consider the economic and political institutions of the society, and not merely the personal situation and character of a scatter of individuals."

Structure can limit the life-opportunities of individuals in numerous ways, and as will be explored in this analysis food security as a specific life opportunity can be threatened by multiple structural conditions. These can be natural in the form of climatic change, drought, or floods disrupting that disrupt food planting or harvesting cycles. Or it is possible also to consider natural reasons for hunger such as the conduciveness of certain regions for agriculture or other

19 means to provide sustenance. Humans have little control over such conditions linked to the earth's natural environment and must therefore adapt to these challenges as they arise. Although important for the consideration of food security natural factors such as these are not the focus of this research, however, and I instead turn to the numerous social conditions pertaining to food security that even though the world's population has much more control over them remain serious considerations with regard to the state of food security in less industrialized societies.

Each of the perspectives I examine below examines some component of social structure and determines its relevance with regard to the social, economic, or political conditions of food security and how proximate it is to explaining the prevalence of hunger.

One macro-structural social condition that is of considerable importance are trends in globalization that I detail further below. This is a classic example of a macro-structural phenomenon that has individual consequences with regard to human security and well-being, be it disease, employment, hunger and so forth. Others that are also important and will be examined in this analysis include conflict and war, democratization, demographic trends and population pressure, ethnic and gender discrimination, industrialization, global investment patterns, militarization, urbanization, and technological change to name a few in addition to consideration of development processes in general.

To clarify the structural linkages of food security it may be useful to discuss the conditions relative to the concept of famine which when spoken of conjures up images of widespread starvation and death that lie at its core. In doing this, the macro-structural, "public issue" connotation of food security alluded to above by barkening classic statements by C.

Wright Mills (1959) can be given center stage so as to adequately decipher the conditions of most importance to understanding its presence in less industrialized societies.

20 In this analysis I do not use the term famine to relate to specific famine events, but instead represent a process akin to on ongoing prevalence of hunger and food insecurity. In this regard I take an approach to understanding famine espoused by Devereux that recognizes "many shades of poverty, hunger, and starvation" (1993:17) and emphasizes that food insecurity has more to do with stratification and inequality than anything else. To understand this perspective on famine more clearly, it will help to first discuss the more familiar "outsider" approach and contrast it with the "insider" perspective of this analysis that ties this concept more clearly to food security and the structural conditions of less industrialized societies.

In reviewing the vast array of literature on the subject, famine has been as difficult a concept to define in academic and policy circles as it has been to eliminate in the field. Just as there is no single correct theory for why famine occurs or persists and there is also no universal definition of the concept. According to Devereux (1993:18) conventional outsider definitions of

famine are preoccupied with three characteristics that distinguish famine: a critical food

shortage, starvation, and excess mortality. However, citing Sen (1981) and de Waal (1989)

Devereux (1993:18) claims that in the last couple of decades alone numerous famines fail to

meet these rather simple and straightforward criteria. For example, there was no food shortage

in the 1974 Bangladesh famine, nor was there increased death from starvation as in the western

Sudan in 1984 and 1985, or increases in mortality more generally as in the Sahel in the early

seventies.

As stated by Devereux, "the contrast between "insider" and "outsider" definitions is

starkest when it is recognized that victims see widespread death as the end result of a famine

process, while outsiders see it as the beginning" (1993:18). This explains the attention given to

the images in the media of starving children in refugee camps that shape people"s typical

21 conceptualization of famine. Those looking at famines from the outside need to consider that the real famine experience for the hundreds of millions around the world is the day to day life of destitution that places them in a vulnerable position. Famine thus becomes more of a process than an event, making it akin to food security in that insider perspectives think of famine as a structural condition of one's life. Famine should therefore be considered the daily condition of

food insecurity in which individuals have limited access to available food because of various economic, political or social barriers in distribution.

This is not to say that food shortage, mass starvation , and mortality are not at the core

famines for they are indeed its most important and closely related components. What outsiders

should realize however, is that as bad as conditions are regarding the famine that finally attracts

outsider attention, the situation is and has been far worse in that conditions conducive to the

present situation did not happen overnight but instead have been a defining component of the

society's structural conditions for quite some time leading up to what is fmally considered the

crisis point For example, the present situation in North Korea has been in the making for nearly

a decade with steady decline in food security throughout, but it took the triggering event of a

flood to attract outside attention to the structural crisis already occurring thus enabling it to

finally be labeled a famine. Although massive levels of mortality are certainly a potential

outcome, the steady decline of food availability and access, the prevalence of child

underautrition, or growing numbers of low-weight births that provide early warning of the

cataclysmic "famine event" are equally serious and therefore merit attention. That is, famine is

an ongoing structural condition of many societies and realization of this and vigilance with

regard to the daily conditions of life that lead to this situation can prevent the chance that the

22 "end" to which Devereux refers that I allude to above from ever being reached and therefore keeping an already bad situation from being drastically worse.

To clarify the above one could consider a definition of famine from the Hunger Project which claims famine to be "a widespread lack of access to food that occurs when drought, flood, or war disrupts the availability of food in a society of chronically undernourished people"

(1985:13). This definition has important elements to consider that link it to food security. First, the definition emphasizes the importance of access in examining famine noting that it is when people are unable to acquire food that starvation occurs. As with discussions of food security this is essential in that distribution of existing food are primary components of hunger and famine. Second, the Hunger Project considers famine to be most relevant to those countries that are already prone to destitution and suffering in that they lack the structural capacity to avoid a crisis. Thus, although one may speak of specific famines in history such as in Ireland in the

1840s, the Chinese famine of 1877 and 1878, the Dutch Hunger Winter of 1944 and 1945, or

Ethiopia in 1984 and 1985 (see Watkins and Menken 1985; O'Neill and Taye 1998), these could be considered examples of severe crisis points in already unstable environments where food security was widely threatened and state capacity to prevent greater catastrophe was limited.

Given the early warning associated with processes occurring prior to the what outsiders would consider the famine event, insiders would view the entire process that led to that end as the famine. Third, it is important to note that this definition sees famine as a structural condition.

That is, because its causes are rooted in macro-events such as drought or war and has widespread consequences, the effects it has on a society are beyond anything linked to a single individual can control or be responsible for.

23 Lastly, it is useful to note that famines in the traditional sense of the term are actually rare events (Uvin 1993) that receive attention because they are out of the ordinary. In the words of the Hunger Project (1985:13-14)

"Famine makes news precisely because it is not the normal condition. Yet it

accounts for no more than a small fraction of the hunger-related deaths. The

overwhelming majority of hunger-related deaths are caused by 'normal hunger.'

These often go unnoticed and unreported."

It is this "normal hunger" that is at the core of the day to day notion of food security and the consideration of which insider perspectives on famine seek to make outsiders more aware.

Viewing famine as mere "events" in the sense that they happened in a given time and space is useful for highlighting a case of extreme deprivation, but isolating famine and therefore hunger to only such occurrences does a disservice to understanding the larger and more importantly ongoing structural conditions shaping the cultural, economic, environmental, social, and political processes leading up to the "event".

Sen and the notion o f entitlements. Before moving to specific theoretical perspectives of

interest to food security in this analysis, it will be useful to elaborate on the importance of classic statements by Sen and colleagues utilizing an "entitlement perspective" on food security and their place in this analysis. Although not a specific test of Sen's writings, this analysis can certainly be viewed as expanding upon his key ideas. An important aspect of this extension of

Sen is the application of the entitlement perspective to the cross-national level.

The key contribution from Sen and colleagues who continue his work was the conclusion that famine has to do with people not having enough food to eat, not that there is not enough

food available for them to begin with (Osmani 1995). By using the term "entitlement" Sen

24 emphasizes the economic rationale behind individual attainment of food in that people acquire it through trade, producing it themselves, laboring, or inheritance (1981:2). With regard to hunger, an "entitlement failure" occurs when a person is unable to acquire the food that he or she wants through these means thus enabling one to avoid starvation. When numerous individuals simultaneously experience entitlement failures, then according to Sen famine can be said to have occurred (Osmani 1995). In this regard Sen has an important place in understanding the essential issue to food security and its links to famine.

Thus, one should avoid taking too narrow of an approach toward understanding entitlements in that they should be examined beyond a focus on "economic property" as elaborated upon by Sen and colleagues. It should instead be treated broadly as a more widely encompassing collection of barriers and rights associated with food security therefore considering its structural context. Property is more than ownership of market goods, namely food, but also ownership of the right to be fiee of oppression and war, to have children, to obtain an education, and to be free of inequality and discrimination among other things. By extending

Sen's ideas into other forms of property this analysis can take advantage of a more integrative theoretical assessment of food security concerns in that existing perspectives are linked to the discussion of rights and their links to human well-being.

With this in mind I now turn to the numerous perspectives with which to examine the dynamics of food security in less industrialized societies.

The Globalization Imperative

Social change in contemporary world societies cannot be considered apart from the dynamic processes linked to globalization and the expansion of cross-border interaction between countries that has important relevance to questions of food security, famine, and the structural

25 factors that create the condition of hunger in less industrialized societies. Development in general and food security specifically has been engulfed by globalization processes in recent decades therefore demanding one attempt to grasp a bit of understanding concerning the complexities of these patterns and their relevance to understanding food security change.

In the flood of economic, political, sociological, and other literature in academic circles and the popular press incorporating the term, globalization is likely one of the most talked about yet least understood or clearly defined concepts being discussed in academic and policy circles.

It is a catch-phrase that has been en vogue since the 1980s to encapsulate social change processes that increasingly and ever more rapidly threaten to shrink the planet into a singular culture,

market, or social order. Numerous definitions of globalization abound, with common features

having to do with global cultural, economic, political and social integration linked to an

unprecedented expansion in international communication and interaction among the global

citizenry (Afshar and Barrientos 1999; Albrow and King 1990; Baker, Epstein, and Pollin 1998;

Baylis and Smith 1997; Castells 1996. 1997,1998; Cox and Hettnel995; Giddens 1990; Gupta

1997; Gupta and Choudhry 1997; Hoogvelt 1997; Robertson 1992; Sassen 1998; Scholte 1993;

Waters 1995).

Globalization of one form or other has been occurring for centuries but it has only been

recently with the advance of communications and micro-computer technology and the rise of

cross-national corporate and economic institutions seeking integration of the planet that the term

has become increasingly en vogue. As with colonization akin to global economic expansion

processes of old, or with debates surrounding development patterns in the modem era,

globalization processes have been equally controversial. A great deal of research has focused on

the impact and potential problems of globalization (e.g., Bauman 1998; Mittelman 1996; Sassen

26 1996) including specific examinations of such wide-ranging topics as culture and religion

(Haynes 1999; Lewis, Fitzgerald, and Harvey 1996), cultural imperialism and the dominance of the West (La Feber 1999; Ritzer 2000), education (Lambert 1995), environmental sustainability

(French 2000), fragmentation versus raonoculturalism (Barber 1995); international relations

(Clark 1997), international security and the arms trade (Mussington 1994; Pearson 1994), labor and grassroots movements (Brecher and Costello 1994; Tilly 1995), poverty and inequality

(Chossudovsky 1997), urbanization (Clarke 1998; Sassen 2000), and the position of women

(Afshar and Barrientos 1999). Numerous other studies of specific topics and their links to

globalization abound and given the enormity of the debates are well beyond what can be

summarized here. Suffice it to say that McMichael (1999) calls "the globalization project" has

garnered much attention, and rightly so for its impacts are far-reaching and imperative to future

considerations of global well-being.

In seeking to understand the contributions of each of the theoretical perspectives I

discuss below to explaining food security in less industrialized societies it is essential to cultivate

their interrelationships and common links. None of the theories is independent of any of the

others in that claims made by each than likely can challenge, overlap with, or complement one or

more of the other perspectives. The modernization, dependency, urban bias, neo-Malthusian,

techno ecology, women in development, military famine, and ethnic antagonisms perspectives

are not only connected by their links to food security, development, and social change, but also

to a larger macro-structural context that has increasingly defined and shaped the world over the

last few decades and transformed its economic, political, and social dynamics. That force is

globalization, which in this analysis I claim to be the overarching theme common to each of the

27 above theories, for each is attempting in some fashion to explain the determinants of food security and the consequences of not obtaining it in the dynamics of globalization.

Globalization is thus not a theory per se but a process and framework with which to apply existing theories of social change and development in seeking to better understand food security. There can be dependency and modernization perspectives on the causes and consequences of globalization just as feminists or demographers may view the topic in certain ways that are relevant to their concerns. In this sense, globalization is a dynamic existing within each of the various perspectives I examine in this analysis, providing the important context in which they seek to explain food security. Whether that context and its associated processes are positive or negative and manageable or out of control is to be determined in applying these perspectives. Furthermore, it is also essential to consider just how much the process can account for various explanations each of the theories present. Thus, is interstate war detrimental to food security or is it instead that globalization patterns are forcing countries to compete for global influence and resources? Or, are structural adjustment programs rational policies established by governments or are they instead an inevitable consequence of the demands of globalization to give in to global market forces. Questions such as these are numerous. It is in considering how globalization is the common macro-structural condition in which each of these theories operates and contributes to the explanation of food security that one realizes the links that exist between them.

Therefore, in what remains of this section I discuss such complexities of globalization as an imperative prelude to, context for, and extension of the theories for food security, development, and social change that I examine. Some have argued that globalization has superseded development as the key mechanism by which countries enter the modem era, one

28 claim coming from McMichael (1999) who presents the rise of the "globalization project" as a replacement for the "development project" bom in the tide of global economic expansion and

Cold War politics following World War H. In discussing the emergence of the globalization project as the new model for less industrialized countries to pursue, McMichael notes in 1980 that the World Bank proclaimed "the model postdevelopmentalist strategy for development to be successful participation in the world economy" with development by definition being active pursuits of liberalization with the newly industrializing countries as models for global participation (1999; 153). Globalization thus redefines questions of development in that now priorities are not so much tied to inward-focused modernization policies that mimic successful

strategies of the industrialized North, but instead applying these pursuits outwardly to globally-

managed economic processes. McMichael continues, noting that "in place of national priorities, global priorities such as debt service, expanded trade, and renewal of foreign investment

opportunities gain the upper hand" (1999:159) further adding that:

"The globalization project includes an explicit vision of global order, which is

quite distinct from that of the post-World War II modernization era. At that

time, the slogan was Team from, and catch up with, the West.' Now, under

comparative advantage, the slogan is 'Find your niche in the global marketplace.'

Whereas the first held out replication as the key to national development, the

second presents specialization as the path to economic prosperity" (1999:164).

As will be detailed below, such strategies have important relevance to food security

considerations in less industrialized societies and thus could have a variety of implications for

human well-being.

29 What is most essential to the present analysis is that a large amount of this controversy and debate surrounding globalization has centered on the international relations and political economy of food, thus giving it special relevance to food security and development. (See

Barkin et al 1990; Bongaarts 1996; Busch and Juska 1997; Fafchamps 1992; Friedmann 1993,

1994; Griffin 1987; Hopkins and Puchala 1978; Johnson 1978; McMichael 1994; Raynolds,

Myhre, McMichael, Carro-Figueroa, and Buttel 1993; Tweeten and McClelland 1997; Ward and

Almas 1997; Watts 1983). In fact, discussions that twenty years ago would have been considered "development debates" now consider globalization thus further reinforcing claims that theories of the former are now being replaced by theories attempting to explain the latter.

This is particularly true when considering attempts at understanding the impact that

macro-stmctural change such as globalization has on less industrialized societies and the lives of

individuals within them. Food security and patterns of availability and access are a

quintessential globalization process having relevance at many levels from peasant producer to

multi-national food conglomerates and the consumers they serve while navigating trade policy,

marketing boards, and the politics of food assistance and distribution. As evidence of this, world

cereal imports have climbed by 221% between 1961 and 1995 for an average annual increase of

6.32%, with similar climbs for the 1970 to 1990 period of interest in this analysis of 102% and

5.10% (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2000b). As I discuss in the

following chapter of this analysis, food imports in general have also been on the rise, accounting

for approximately 30 percent of the 1990 food supply in less industrialized countries, a 29

percent increase over the previous two decades (United Nations Development Programme 1994).

Thus, in an era of "global grocers" in which world exports of agricultural products

continually increase, dominance in world trade in grain shifts fiom the south to the north, the

30 world's fisheries stocks become increasingly depleted with rising exports, and more widespread use of agro-chemicals and genetically modified foods (French 2000), the central question becomes whether globalization as viewed by each of the respective theories detailed below positively or negatively contributes to food security in developing societies and how best to explain the complexities of this dynamic.

Theoretical Perspectives on Food Security

Examining food security cross-nationally demands an "integrated assessment" approach that considers the interaction of ecology with economic, political, and social systems to account for the relationship between the various determinants of food security (Harper 1996). Because food security is such a complex phenomenon that demands interdisciplinary and multiple theoretical perspectives to completely understand its dynamics, sociology is well suited to examining this issue. The discipline has much to offer research through application of numerous theoretical perspectives that explore the multi-faceted nature of food security and its links to globalization and development. In this section I each of these perspectives.

In addition, food security provides an ideal forum with which to pursue convergence, integration, and synthesis of the various theories that I examine in this analysis and which explain its components. Although theories differ with regard to why hunger exists and what solutions should be pursued, unlike globalization or development more generally, questions of food security are less "loaded." That is, no theoretical perspective argues in favor of hunger.

Instead differing points of view push for alternative paths to best achieve an optimal level of food security for the population of interest

There are several relevant perspectives that are important to examine with regard to food security. First, the modernization point of view claims that economic and social development

31 will improve food security as countries make the transition from agrarian to industrial societies therefore making the demographic transition and reducing fertility en route to becoming a technologically modem society. According to this perspective population pressure will succumb to development and cooperation between the industrialized and less industrialized worlds with regard to food production, assistance, and the maintenance of order and stability accompanying it. Next, dependency and world system theorists expand on notions of urban bias and challenge modernization perspectives by emphasizing the prevalence of inequality that could inhibit food security arguing that hunger in less industrialized countries is the direct result of dominance of the wealthy industrial powers in a system global market capitalism. The presence of absolute poverty, foreign capital penetration, export dependency and the disruption of subsistence agriculture practices among other occurrences can reduce a country's food security according to this perspective. Stemming from modernization and dependency considerations of food security comes increasing urbanization and various urbanization perspectives including consideration of

"urban bias" and dualism. From this point of view, food security becomes a question of rural- urban disarticulation and whether development processes favor the latter because of the location of policy-making elites in the cities. In this regard development may be limited to urban environments, or come at the expense of the hinterlands thus creating a dual economy, one rich and one poor. Fourth, arguments utilizing a neo-Malthusian perspective argue that pressure resulting from increasing population growth rates, migration, and overuse of land threatens food security in conjunction with environmental scarcity and ecosystem breakdown that further exacerbate food security crises. Fifth, is consideration of the techno-ecological perspective in which food security needs will met with human ingenuity and adaptation to the threats accompanying social change. Ecological evolutionary context and its links to development is

32 therefore an important consideration with regard to food security consequences. Finally, and related to each of the above perspectives in many ways are women in development, military famine, and ethnic antagonisms perspectives on food security each of which has special relevance with regard to the various stratification considerations of food security that are important to its distribution component in less industrialized societies. By examining various forms of inequality that exist between groups in less industrialized societies in addition to the multitude of militarization and conflict occurring throughout the world, these additional points of view bring to light several structural factors that are essential to food security. Be it consideration of war, ethnic political discrimination, or the empowerment of women in society, these additional perspectives provide key insight on the nature of food security and its dynamics.

If integration, convergence, and synthesis of theoretical perspectives are important to this analysis then it is essential to continually re-assess the common component with regard to

social change and development that each of these perspectives share: globalization. As elaborated upon above, this macro-structural process of global integration and interaction is

essential to understanding food security and explaining the its theoretical underpinnings and how

they are linked. Thus, by examining modernization, dependency, urbanization, neo-Malthusian,

techno-ecological, women in development, military famine, and ethnic antagonisms perspectives

in light of the globalization dynamic, this research can utilize clear what sociology has best to

offer with regard to understanding the complex nature of food security. By tying the various

theoretical perspectives together in the context of globalization and social change in which they

have been developed, their commonalities can be exploited so as best to utilize their numerous

ideas.

33 Modernization Perspectives. Modernization theory argues that developing societies should follow the path set forth by developed countries to achieve social well-being (Rostow

1962, Kerr et al 1969). Less industrialized countries should boost their rate of savings and capital investment and develop modem institutional structures such as a rationalized government, a modem military, expanded citizenship, strong urban centers, and an educational system that creates a literate, technologically-knowledgeable, and culturally modem population.

Economic growth is essential for modemization and development as less industrialized countries by necessity seek to find their prescribed niche in the global economy through policies of import substitution and structural adjustment policies.

To "get modem", less industrialized societies should pattern development programs on the successes of the West and foster contact with industrialized countries, meaning that foreign trade and investment, military alliances, and other international interactions are beneficial. In this regard, modemization theory would be favorable of globalization processes, viewing such patterns as beneficial to the overall well-being of less industrialized societies. Macro socio­ economic processes such as democratization, free trade, and economic development should integrate global societies, and within them create social capital, human rights urgency, and citizenship that reduce food distribution problems by challenging inequalities linked vulnerable groups in society. Globalization therefore means global cooperation and movement toward

increased standards of living for the global citizenry.

Success stories from the modemization perspective inevitably turn to the accomplishments of countries such as Hong Kong (before re-unification with China), Singapore,

South Korea, and Taiwan (see So 1990; Bradshaw and Wallace 1996) which have become economically vibrant societies while other newly-industrializing countries such as Brazil,

34 Malaysia, and Mexico tout similar, up and coming achievements. In obtaining development

success less industrialized countries can be said to have "taken off' in obtaining self-sustaining

economic growth (Rostow 1962). In Rostow*s classic formulation, developing countries follow a

similar pattern as they move fix>m a traditional stage of minimal social change to becoming an

advanced high-consumption society, moving through intermediate steps of market expansion,

industrial development, technological innovation, and the creation of resources and capital

production capabilities.

In parallel fashion during this process of increasingly rapid economic growth before

achieving eventual stability, additional modernizing patterns occur that further contribute to a

nation's development. One evitable and perhaps necessary component of modernization is

inequality between various social classes in society in addition to rural-urban disarticulation

based on the spatiality of the economy (Alonso 1968; Williamson 1965). Modernization

theorists for example, claim that inequality is short-lived and indicative of the changes brought

on by rapid economic growth that in the long run give way to more equality (Kuznets 1955) and

a likely increase in the standard of living rise for the entire population (Alonso 1980).

In addition, as Levy (1967:196-201) notes modernizing societies will become

characterized by high levels of specialization, interdependency, centralization, organizational

complexity, and rationality. In addition, modernizing societies become more structurally

differentiated (Smelser 1964) in that modem societies develop institutions that carry out perform

specific functions in addition to being integrated in their operation so as to complement a

cohesive whole. Other important contributing factors that also arise with regard to the

modernization perspective on development include achievement motivation (McClelland 1964),

"modem men" (Inkeles 1964), cultural values (Bellah 1957), and important links to political

35 development and democracy (Coleman 1968, Lipset 1963), all of which highlight the important functionalist-evolutionary theoretical roots the modernization perspective (see Portes 1976; So

1990).

Modernization theories of development concern food security specifically in the form of countries seeking full participation in the global economy. For example, Tweeten and

McClelland (1997) and Bongaarts (1996) note that improvements in global trade and access to new food markets that are characteristics of modernization will improve food supply channels and by logical extension should reduce hunger. Full participation means pursuing policies of import substitution and structural adjustment in which inward-looking "traditional" economies relegated to stagnation in the form of subsistence agriculture and local crafts industries are replaced with foreign and domestic investment patterns that create new industry and technology that utilizes the vast natural and human resources to fuel global economic growth. In such a transformation, the peasant plot is replaced by the corporate plantation which exports cash crops and hires workers for wages that are in turn used to purchase goods on the market, including staple foods more efficiently produced elsewhere. Furthermore, in such a transformation new cities arise which attract workers from throughout the country side to work in manufacturing and technology-based industries that similarly serve the global market.

Modernization theory is undoubtedly an essential consideration to food security in that it is such a strong predictor of development well-being. In other words, "modem" societies are also the best fed, the wealthiest, and most educated, industrialized, and politically stable making it difficult to argue against the correlates and logic behind the theory. Thus, it is extremely likely that development level as indicated by gross national product per capita will be a strong predictor of food security, as would economic growth. However, what can be and is typically used to

36 critique modernization theory are its universalism and the applicability of "typical" patterns of development to all less industrialized societies, often being considered Western-centric. As will be elaborated below with urbanization and dependency and world-system perspectives, such short-sightedness and misguided direction has limited development success and been directly attributed to continued inequality and food insecurity.

Dependency and World-System Theory Perspectives. Dependency and related world system theories developed as a critique of modernization perspectives, with classical Marxist roots, only instead of emphasizing the struggle between bourgeoisie and proletariat proponents of this perspective speak of a world is divided between rich and poor countries with the latter exploited by the former. It is in this system of exploitation rooted in the history of colonialism and global capitalist development that the well-being of less industrialized countries is deterred by wealthier developed countries who are in an advantaged position. At the same time, it is believed that the well-being of the developed countries is accomplished at the expense of the less industrialized countries.

Early forms of dependency theory contend that classical patterns of colonialism disrupt and exploit indigenous economies for their agricultural products, raw materials, and human labor, creating the current system of "north-south" global economy that exists in the contemporary world (Amin 1976; Chirot 1996; Frank 1967; Isbister 1995; Mazrui 1986).

Consideration of dependency in the modem era is thus rooted in the roots of historical capitalist development akin to the world system theory variant of the dependency perspective (Chase-

Dunn 1989; Wallerstein 1974, 1983). Colonialism and dominance derived from the establishment European world empires led to control of populations in the form of slavery and natural resources, agriculture production and trade essential to food security and human and

37 economic well-being (Thomas 1994). The foundations of hunger and poverty in less industrialized societies and the creation of the "Third World" is a product of a long history and struggle with colonialism (Isbister 1995).

In the post-World War II era the classical notion of colonialism has been replaced in the context of globalization by neo-colonial domination of multinational corporations that wield exceptional power in less industrialized countries which dependency theorists argue creates new forms of unequal exchange between countries in the core and periphery (Bradshaw and Wallace

1996:48-51). Thus, poorer peripheral countries are blocked from development and become dependent "satellites" that must concentrate on providing cheap labor and exporting primary products to the industrial core which acts as "neo-imperialists." Bomschier and Chase-Dunn

(1985), for example, argue that foreign capital penetration hinders economic development in peripheral countries with later studies (Dixon and Boswell 1996a, 1996b) re-affirming such findings. In addition, dependent development (Cardoso and Falletto 1979; Evans 1979;

Bomschier and Chase-Dunn 1985) and world system theories (Wallerstein 1983) claim that foreign direct investment creates dependent industrialization that substitutes advanced technology for workers, corrupts local consumer tastes, discourages basic needs investments, increases foreign debt, and creates internal inequality. In this regard, the quality of life of those living in lesser-industrialized societies is harmed by underdevelopment (London and Williams

1990; Wimberley 1990) with global economic practices particularly exploiting women

(Ehrenreich and Fuentes 1995; Nash and Feraandez-Kelly 1983; Ward 1990) and children

(Silvers 1996).

Numerous issues have taken center stage with regard to dependency perspectives on international development and social change, most notably concerns with stratification between

38 and within countries and the debt crisis associated with these processes (Bradshaw, Noonan,

Gash, and Buchmann 1993; George 1988; Lissakers 1993; Singh 1992). Land inequality and disarticulation within less industrialized societies has created a situation in which landless peasants are forced to work wage labor producing cash crops for exports while purchasing food imports at inflated prices. Land inequality is closely associated with poverty and in its most basic form equates to wealth inequality within less industrialized societies (Deininger and Squire

1997a) and creates much potential for insurgency and revolution (Huntington 1968; Muller and

Seligson 1987; Paige 1975). Thus, analysis of and calls for land reform to promote stability and return economic empowerment to the global peasantry have been a key component of dependency analyses of development and food security (Alberts 1983; de Janvry 1981; Harvey

1998).

Similarly, international food assistance programs have been critiqued for their role increasing international dependency while being politicized and thus largely misdirected and ineffective while at the same time disrupting internal markets (see Hopkins 1992; Kodras 1993;

Ruttan 1993; Uvin 1992). Furthermore, additional critique of global economic and cultural imperialism akin to dependency theory have been at the core of recent protests against the role of international agencies such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank concerning globalization processes aimed at increasingly integrating the world's people into a single global economy have heightened awareness of claims made by dependency and world-system perspective and the influence of such international institutions (McMichael 1999; French 2000;

Lappéetal 1998).

Concern with exploitation in the global economy and resulting inequalities between nations and individuals naturally parallels the problem of hunger. Thus, regarding food

39 specifically, some (de Janvry 1976; Friedmann 1982,1993,1994; McMichael 1994,1997,1999) argue that an international food order has been established that creates an unequal exchange

relationship between the developed North and less industrialized South in that the latter are dependent on food imports from the former in exchange for the provision of cheap labor and the exports of cash crops. In this regard, formerly self-sufficient economies lost their subsistence

nature to increased international dependency and market-orientation characteristic of the

international capitalist order (Bates 1981) resulting in greater vulnerability to food insecurity.

Dependency perspectives are therefore staunchly anti-globalization in that such patterns exemplify the structural inequalities and patterned exploitation that has been occurring for centuries in less-industrialized societies therefore leaving the world's poorest people hungry and even poorer. The international political economy of food, particularly the increase in

international agri-business conglomerates, is thus no different than other global markets such as manufactured goods or technology in that a situation of dependent development results that

leaves less industrialized societies in a weaker competitive position (Barkin 1990; Barkin, Blatt, and DeWalt 1990).

Dependency and world system theorists are thus likely to emphasize the negative

consequences of food security having become an international phenomenon rooted in global

capitalist development. In this sense it too has great relevance to understanding food security in

the contemporary world. However, as with other perspectives there are weaknesses to consider.

For example. So (1990) notes that dependency and world systems perspectives can be critiqued

for blanket assumptions about peripheral countries and the failure to fully acknowledge that

dependency and development may coexist Furthermore, critics note that too often these perspectives are convenient statements for all that is wrong in less industrialized societies with

40 daims often lacking sound empiricism to support claims, including specific accounting for justification of labels such as "the world system" (So 1990). These and other claims have meant that dependency and world system perspectives, like modernization approaches, have had to reevaluate their approach and methodology to better account for the dynamics of development.

Urbanization perspectives. As an extension and theoretical "battleground" for dependency and modernization theories of development and food security there is much to be considered with regard to urbanization perspectives and their links to rural-urban disarticulation

and less industrialized societies. Studies of the "urban transition" in less industrialized societies

have focused on the contributions of three perspectives with regard to the impact of urbanization

on social: modernization, dependency, and urban bias arguments (e.g., Bradshaw 1987;

Bradshaw and Fraser 1989; Gugler 1993) in addition to related "dual economy" approaches

(Alderson and Nielsen 1995). Dualism and associated disarticulation has been viewed either

negatively or positively with regard to the developing world depending on which theoretical

perspective one applies to examining urbanization. Discussion of urbanization processes that is

the focus of this section and the analysis which follows will provide critical insight into this

dynamic and its links to food security and disarticulation.

For example, the modernization perspective views urbanization as a key component of

social change that is important for development and economic growth (see Bairoch 1988;

Crenshaw and Oakey 1998; Kasarda and Crenshaw 1991). Cities are essential to development in

that they provide a key place for economic, political and social processes central to

modernization including financial services and markets, policy making arenas, and technology

and educational centers. Cities thus become the center cog in the complex process of

modernization with urbanization fueling economic development (Crenshaw and Oakey 1998),

41 international trade, and globalization (Sassen 2000). Their prevalence and associated rural-urban disarticulation that may result do not necessarily have to indicate dependency and inequality but instead indicate normal consequences of economic development that are part of this important growing process in less industrialized societies.

The more critical dependency perspective views growing urbanization in light of its negative impact on development in less industrialized societies and the inequality that is generated by this process. For example, Timberlake and Kentor ( 1983) note that dependency in the form of foreign capital penetration often results in "overurbanization" of which if goes unchecked hinders economic growth while others such as Bradshaw (1985) London and Smith

(1988), and Stockwell and Laidlaw (1980) find additional evidence for detrimental impacts of the relationship between dependency, urbanization on economic growth.

In addition, this perspective argues that dependency and the global capitalist system creates a gulf in human well-being between city and countryside (Smith and Timberlake 1993).

Paralleling classic dependency and world system arguments, cities form the "core" within less industrialized societies with the hinterlands being the "periphery" that supplies the urban environment with agricultural products, natural resources, extractive materials, and eventually a migrating labor force to serve the urban industrial base. In this process mass urban agglomerations are created in which millions live in poverty and poor health conditions associated with shanty-towns and slums springing up to fuel the global economy that the dependency and world system perspective would claim to be disrupting traditional life in less

industrialized societies.

An additional theory that has made numerous claims urbanization processes and their

links to disarticulation in less industrialized societies has been the urban bias perspective which

42 expands upon the notion of inequality that is emphasized by dependency theory to more fully elaborate on disarticulation between rural and urban areas (see Alderson and Nielsen 1995; Bates

1993; Bradshaw 1987; Gilbert and Gugler 1992; Gugler 1997; Kasarda and Crenshaw 1991;

Lipton 1977; London and Smith 1988; Nielsen 1995; Varshney 1993). The central argument

from this point of view claims that development policies favor urban areas in that economic

elites who gamer political power in the cities are able to formulate policy to their advantage. In

this regard, governments in less industrialized societies pander to the well-organized interests of

urbanites and a few rural elites to maintain their position of power through policy actions. The

result is that rural hinterlands become poorer while the urban environments prosper at their

expense thus emphasizing the harshness of rural life and the role of cities in maintaining the gulf

of inequality between them.

Thus, examining urbanization dynamics, capital investment, pricing, taxation and other

policies benefit urban areas more so than rural ones (Bradshaw 1987) while such "rent-seeking"

behavior thus increases rural-urban differences that keep rural populations powerless and poor

(Weede 1996). Although such processes are potentially linked to dependency processes, as de

Soysa and Gleditsch (1999:33) note, while dependency theory focuses on exploitation that

occurs from the outside, urban bias perspectives view it as a result of internal policies that

emphasize distorted agriculture markets at home that keep the rural peasantry poor. The classic

statement of such practices is Lipton's (1977:287-327) concept of "price twisting" in which state

commodity boards reap the benefit of purchasing agricultural products at artificially low cost

from farmers and exporting it for profit Another important example would be policy that seeks

to maintain food prices at an artificially low level for urban markets. Urban dwellers demand

cheap food, and governments and marketing boards oblige with such policies to avoid protests

43 and food riots that could otherwise challenge their position of power. Because the rural population is largely poor and with little education in addition to being dispersed throughout the countryside and thus having little means to pursue collective action (Bates 1981; de Soysa and

Gleditsch 1999; Weede 1996) they are essentially powerless to confront the exploitative dynamic.

Thus, the urban bias perspective claims that urbanization creates regional inequality by hindering rural development, encouraging rural-to-urban migration and "overurbanization" that is beyond the capability of societies to manage mass urban agglomerations as workers move to escape poverty and search for new opportunities, and creates hunger problems for vulnerable populations in these societies. It is the central importance of agriculture to this perspective that gives it particular relevance to understanding food security. In arguments similar to those from a dependency or world system perspective, much of the inequality that results between rural and urban sectors has to do with domestic policies that have pushed the peasantry to modify or totally abandon the agricultural economy that has given them both subsistence food as well as an economic livelihood.

In this regard they have chosen to forego self-sufficient lifestyles and produce cash-crops for export instead or migrate to urban centers and enter the wage-economy there leaving them vulnerable to food shortfalls and insecurity associated with markets. In addition to this and the discussion noted above with regard to price twisting and the inferior position of the rural peasantry to control their own markets there are additional and related ways in which urban bias links to food security and other development concerns. For example, Barrett (1996) notes the adverse welfare effects on the low-income rural peasantry of seasonal fluctuations in rice markets in Madagascar while Lipton (1993) notes gaps in the availability of clean water and

44 sanitation, education, famine relief, and other health services tied to human well-being.

Furthermore, studies that examine conflict and war (de Soysa and Gleditsch 1999; Homer-Dixon and Blitt 1998), food riots (Walton and Seddon 1994), landlessness (Deininger and Squire

1997a; Prosterman and Riedinger 1982), peasant revolution (Paige 1975) have at least implied meaning if not direct links to gaps in development and well being between city and countryside.

Rural-urban disparity on a variety of fronts remains a concern to dualism and urban bias perspectives, with understanding agricultural production and food security part of its core.

A related "dual economy" perspective emphasizes dualism and (Alderson and Nielsen

1995; Nielsen 1994) sees a parallel pattern with regard to rural-urban differences in less industrialized societies but not for the same reasons. Linking to analysis of the relationship between economic development and inequality such as that from Kuznets (1955) and Alonso

(1980), dualism is associated less with political bias of urban elites than it is economic processes akin to development and modernization that create dual sectors in the economy, one rich and one poor. In this regard, the growing, increasingly diversified manufacturing and service economy

of urban environments outperforms a struggling agricultural sector that is attempting to come to

grip with modernization. In other words, disarticulation results from that the urban industrial

sector being more efficient and contributing to greater value-added per worker than the

agricultural economy. Furthermore, because technology is likely to be concentrated in urban

centers before slowly diffusing to the countryside, the rural environment is likely to lag behind

and thus create uneven development patterns and a "modem" versus "traditional" or core­

periphery split within developing societies that results in a situation of urban primacy (see

Kasarda and Crenshaw 1991). In this case those less critical of urbanization processes and

associated disarticulation view such patterns as temporary and normal bumps along the path to

45 modernization that become smoothed over as the growing and increasingly sophisticated economy stabilizes so as to improve development for all and reduce inequality. Such a dualism perspective therefore returns perspectives on urbanization and development to the modernization perspective.

The dual economy and urban bias perspectives should be considered to be linked

processes that can be examined simultaneously (see Jenkins and Scanlan 2000). In addition

dualism can either be the cause of grave or less than serious concerns depending on one's

perception of its place in development. It is conceivable that a dual economy legacy can lead to

urban bias patterns in that the rural sector has greater dependency upon and is more vulnerable to

the political practices of the urban centers. In this sense persistent, long-term presence of a dual

economy is most likely evidence of urban bias as conceived by Bates (1981), Lipton (1977) and

others who claim point to great levels of rural-urban disarticulation and the urban sources of this.

However, a diminishing dual economy presence that has effects rooted in industrialization,

economic growth, or economic development level each of which is associated with

modernization is more likely attributable to the inevitable and perhaps necessary side effects of

development.

Sorting out the theoretical overlap akin to urbanization and its relationship to food

security in less industrialized societies is thus an important though difficult task, which can

become even more daunting when considering the difficulty in measuring various concepts as I

discuss below with regard to data and methods. One area of particular debate has been the extent

to which urban bias and dependency perspectives are distinct approaches to urbanization or how

much overlap exists between them if in fact they are separate. For example, it seems that most

dependency theorists would prefer to include urban bias as a product of dependency on foreign

46 exports or foreign capital penetration (see Timberlake and Kentor 1983; London 1987; London and Smith 1988; Stokes and Anderson 1990; Gugler 1997) though this link is not always confirmed, while other research (Bradshaw 1987; Kasarda and Crenshaw 1991) considers it to be a distinct argument. Jenkins and Scanlan (2000), for example, find weak effects of dependency measures on urban bias thus supporting this latter view which as detailed below is also the case in this analysis indicating that urbanization processes have little to do with dependency (see also

Breedlove and Armer1997).

Lastly with regard to urbanization it is useful to discuss the links between globalization and the growth of global cities and whether it this process has positive effects on development and food security in less industrialized societies depends upon the perspective one adopts with regard to explaining the impacts of urbanization. Globalization has certainly given rise to the creation of "global city functions" (Sassen 2000) and the growth of "global cities" with a majority of inhabitants in developing societies living in urban centers (Kasarda and Crenshaw

1991) and increased migration to them in search of opportunities provided in the new global marketplace. Those with a positive view of urbanization see globalization as fueling the growth potential of cities, and therefore developing economies, with poverty, sprawl, and disarticulation short-term consequences. However, those who take an urban bias approach view globalization negatively in that it is partly to blame for differences in well-being between rural and urban populations and the transformation of indigenous economies that give rise to urbanization in the new economy. Thus paralleling those in the dependency camp, globalization and its links to urbanization is a process that benefits elites in the cities and leaves the mass majority of the population in poverty, whether it be the countryside or city slums.

47 Neo-Malthusian Perspectives. Discussion of food security most often begins with ecological concerns of population pressure and the capacity of the earth to feed the increasing number of people on the planet (Brown and Kane 1994; Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990; Ehrlich et al

1993; Meadows, Meadows and Randers 1992; Ophuls and Boyan 1992; Smil 1994). In conjunction with the emphasis upon curbing the hazards of unchecked population growth, a key component of this perspective is that food security can only be maintained through efforts to achieve a sustainable society "that meets the needs of the human population without compromising those of future generations" (Harper 1996:269). In this regard one sees the necessity of balancing human needs with the earth's ability to confront those needs without contributing to unrecoverable environmental degradation.

Neo-Malthusian perspectives on food security thus recycle the classic claim that rapid population growth will outstrip the earth's ability to adequately provide for its inhabitants. In this scenario, the most immediate threat to food security is limits in food availability with the focus is on population pressure placing a negative burden on food security. Population pressure can come in numerous forms, be it high fertility rates or age dependency ratios, high population density that "squeezes" agricultural land, or mass movements of individuals into cities and away from agricultural productivity. Although the focus of this perspective is on availability, when food supply becomes increasingly of concern, questions of inequality and access to foodstuffs become more and more pertinent. Scarcity exacerbates problems of distribution and the likelihood of individuals experiencing entitlement failures and famine in that the less food that is available, the more likely it will be difficult to acquire by those least able to afford it.

According to this perspective there are limits to the earth's carrying capacity, and as more people make demands on the environmental resource system those limits are rapidly

48 approached. Thus, food availability is at the core of environmentalism and the need to conserve resources and pursue alternative, sustainable methods of food production and economic development that enables countries to limit population growth and reduce damage to the environment are therefore needed. Neo-Malthusians argue against a belief in "infinite substitutability" (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990) of the earth's resources, noting instead that there are limits to human ability to adapt to environmental change and food needs that demand people alter existing patterns of consumption.

Although critiqued for touting pessimistic "doomsday" scenarios regarding the earth's

future and reviving arguments already committed to failure, neo-Malthusian perspectives can

point to much evidence to support the need for renewed and continued vigilance. For example, the global population has increased more rapidly in recent decades more so than at any moment

in history, topping the six billion mark in 1999. In addition, experts claim that the world

population can be expected to double in the next 50 years before leveling off (Population

Reference Bureau 1998). This will occur in an enviroiunental context of increasingly scarce

resources in a world of which the carrying capacity is something of much widespread debate and

uncertainty. Thus, the reality of current envirorunental degradation and stress from

overpopulation and threats to sustainability can only become more dreadful. However, if

population pressure was all with which one need be concerned with regard to food security,

addressing hunger would be much simpler. But as likely could be surmised, this is just not the

case.

Globalization takes on a variety of ecological considerations when considering neo-

Malthusian perspectives. Sustainability of the planet's natural resources, most notably clean

water and air in addition to soil that is able to produce food for an increasingly growing

49 population becomes the central question. In this regard, calls for population control or other means to confront increasing pressure take on a global face in that north and south view dwindling resources as a world-wide concern that needs to be considered by all, for everyone has some responsibility for the looming changes. In addition, increased attention to the consequences of global markets and increased cross-border interactions such as the emission of greenhouse gases, increased pollutants from factories, and the spread in use of pesticides and herbicides to grow the world's groceries (French 2000) become more and more important in that those utilizing a neo-Malthusian perspective on development and food security are more suspicious than accepting of globalization processes for less industrialized societies.

Techno-Ecological Perspectives. Techno-ecologists (e.g.. Berry and Cline 1979;

Boserup 1965, 1981; Crenshaw 1992; Crosby 1986; Hawley 1968; Lenski and Nolan 1984;

Micklin and Choldin 1984; Simon 1981,1990) would take a more optimistic approach to addressing global social change and food security, arguing that ominous scenarios for the future of the world oversimplify and misunderstand how the planet really works (Harper 1996). In this regard they critique neo-Malthusians at their core arguing, for instance, that technology and human ingenuity have always adequately confronted existing scarcities, and will continue to do so in the future. In other words, human adaptability is the greatest resource available and when confronted with need for change, makes do.

As with modernization approaches, much of techno-ecology theory has roots located in the structural-functionalist perspective of Durkheim (1994 [1893]) and Spencer (1893). In this regard techno-ecology theory derives it claims from the evolutionary components of modernity and development, noting that as societies become increasingly complex they must become further integrated in order to manage such diversity. Techno-ecology theory in this regard

50 emphasizes the interdependency of human populations and the importance of the interaction between population and environment that leads to technological change and adaptation (Hawley

1968). Thus, considerations of population size and the limitations of geography and space that present potential constraints on human societies of increasing densities come to be key engines of change according to human ecologists. Turning back to the functionalist roots, Durkheim

(1984 [1893] would note this is the reason for the development of a complex division of labor in society while Spencer (1893) would denote the importance of differentiation and integration of social structure imperative to development.

Boserup (1965), following this logic, shows that developing countries address increased urbanization and population growth by adapting new technologies and strategies of land use intensification. Similarly, Simon (1981, 1990) claims that population growth should not be considered a threat but an asset in that humans are the most valuable natural resource for their problem-solving capabilities. In this regard, high population density should not be detrimental to food security but instead beneficial in that it could contribute to easier diffusion of technology or mobilization of necessary change to improve food security. Cohen (1995) likewise claims that rational political and economic action as well as utilization of human resources in science and technology help achieve efficiency in food production and distribution systems, thus reducing threats to food availability while Tweeten and McClelland (1997) and Bongaarts (1986) point out that improvements in trade and access to new markets will also limit hunger thus further illustrating the adaptive mechanisms of the world's citizenry. Thus, at a simple level, exploitation of technology that contributes to improvement of agriculture production or better food distribution via transportation networks can offset problems of population growth by

51 increasing availability of food, and in turn reducing likelihood of access and utilization problems that would contribute to increased food insecurity in less industrialized societies.

A key formulation to consider from this perspective is the notion of techno-ecological

heritage and its relevance to food security concerns. As Lenski (1970) Lenski and Nolan (1984)

note, it is important to differentiate modem nations according to whether they are

"industrializing agrarian" or "industrializing horticultural" societies in that their development

trajectory will be strongly influenced by this heritage. And, from a techno-ecological

perspective it is logical food security follows a similar pattern given its links to development

patterns. In more specific terms, agriculture in the pre-modem era meant larger social

organization and complexity that enabled a society to support a greater population and therefore

be more technologically suited for addressing food security needs in the modem era. Thus,

cities, higher literacy, the presence of bureaucracies, standardized currencies, and so forth

indicative of agrarian but not horticultural societies (Lenski and Nolan 1984) could be theorized

to have important carry-over effects into the modem era for food-security well-being. For

example, as an extension to discussion above regarding urbanization, cities may improve food

access for individuals with the provisions of new markets and availability of food while

standardization of currencies and shifts to wage-economies makes for efficient exchange and

acquisition of foods. Furthermore, industrializing agrarian societies are also likely to be

technologically advanced and thus more productive and therefore to result in increased food

availability. Lastly, and in conjunction with modernization perspectives, a literate population is

not only likely to be indicative of a more modem and sophisticated society, but one could also

expect that education has spillovers on improved nutrition and other factors improving food

52 security. It is understanding such "starting ground" that adaptive mechanisms can be best applied to food security and development needs in less industrialized societies.

Another key consideration with regard to techno-ecological theory is the extent to which ideas evolve and diffuse so as to contribution to development and innovation around the world

(see Rogers 1983; Spindler 1977). Diffusion is essential to social change and is thus important to development in that technology and iimovation with useful human application is adopted and/or reinvented to suit the needs of various populations. Communication of information across cultural and geographical barriers thus shapes social change (Rogers 1983). Such cultural borrowing becomes especially relevant to food security concerns when considering the philosophy behind expanding the Green Revolution and global patterns prevalent today with regard to the globalization of food production and markets. The Green Revolution is the proto­ typical globalization process and is the best example of the importance of diffusion processes and the importance of techno-ecology to improving food security in less industrialized societies

(see Brown 1970; Dalrymple 1986a, 1986b; Foster and Leathers 1999; Stackman, Bradfield, and

Mangelsdorf 1967). The implementation of Green Revolution technologies and programs that have introduced new seed varieties have dramatically increased food availability in developing countries (Foster and Leathers 1999:200). This is especially the case when diffusion also introduces improvements and availability of fertilizer in addition to irrigation systems and improved land management strategies essential to improved agricultural productivity. Techno­ ecology theory therefore embraces modernization and affiliated globalization processes that improve global output in food availability from improved agricultural productivity and agricultural markets characterized by increased international flows.

53 A particularly insightful example of diffusion patterns and the extent to which this links to food security and cultural borrowing is Spindler’s (1977:18-19) elaboration upon Linton

(1936:326-327) and his clever description of the typical American's rooming breakfast table comprised of Abyssinian coffee, Indian Sugar, Indochinese egg, and Persian cantaloupe among multiple other items. Such ecological change is important not only because of its links to human adaptation but also for ties to principles of modernization theory that I detail below.

As with the neo-Malthusians, techno-ecology perspectives have most relevance to the question of food availability in that what becomes most important is the ability to adapt agricultural methods so as to produce enough food to feed a growing planet. This was the whole philosophy behind the "Green Revolution" and the spread of new technology to less industrialized countries in most need of increased agricultural output. Fertilizer use is one example of the intensification of agriculture associated with the Green Revolution and human adaptation (Boserup 1965). Where the theory falls short of wholly explaining food security as in accounting for the problems of distribution of existing food supplies and how famine can occur

in times of excess production and availability. For this reason, techno-ecology theory, as with neo-Malthusian perspectives, is not enough.

Women in Development Perspectives. The next point of view to consider with regard to

food security in less industrialized societies is the women in development perspective. The main concern of this approach revolves around two central questions: the impact of economic and

social development processes on gender and the role that women play in these processes and how they influence development. There is much research on these questions, with the gender components of food security and social welfare of the world's population at the center of this

54 discussion (Benavot 1989; Boserup 1970, 1989; Charlton 1984; Dauber and Gain 1981; Dixon-

Mueller 1985; Kennedy and Peters 1992; Tinker, Bramsen, and Buvinic 1975; Ward 1984).

Despite some improvement in the status of the world's women over the last couple of decades, gender inequality and its relevance to questions of economic and social development is an important concern: "In no society today do women enjoy the same opportunities as men. This unequal status leaves considerable disparities between how much women contribute to human development and how little they share in its benefits" (United Nations Development Programme

1995:29). Furthermore, large gaps between men and women with regard to access to education, health, and nutrition in addition to the widespread inequality in institutional realms as women

"continue to be denied equal opportunities for political and economic participation" and fall short of achieving "the same protection and as men in the laws of many countries" (United Nations

Development Programme 1995:29). Throughout the world women see human capabilities and economic and political opportunities denied while often falling victim to violence and unequal treatment under the law. Women work more hours than men, yet most of their labors remains

unpaid, unrecognized, and undervalued as they contribute trillions of "invisible" dollars to the

global economy (United Nations Development Programme 1995:87-98). It is this context of

inequality that gave rise to the numerous contributions of literature on women and development.

The foundation of such analysis is most often linked to the work of Boserup (1970,

1989) who provided important insight on numerous issues confi'onting women in less

industrialized societies such as the gendered division of labor, the negative impacts of

colonialism and capitalist penetration and indigenous agriculture, the undercounting (or no

inclusion) women's contributions to production and income statistics, the position of women in

the domestic and reproductive realms, and the importance of women's education as a means to

55 improve their condition and well-being. In the time since Boserup's initial writing and later editions of her work, others have built upon the foundation she established, with regard to the two central questions noted above with regaird to women in development perspectives, the literature has arrived at two general conclusions, the first being that development processes have not been as kind to women in that they have not been provided the same opportunities as their male counterparts, being relegated secondary status as they experience exploitation. Second, women play a key role in development processes, making numerous contributions with regard to economic and social well-being that go unacknowledged and unappreciated.

An expansive literature on women in development literature has highlighted these key claims. Benavot (1989), for example, explores the links between increased education for women and the benefits this has for development and economic growth. Education is therefore not only

important in that it gives women options with regard to labor force participation and fertility and

reproductive choices, but also benefits society as a whole by investing in and maximizing the

potential contributions of the entire population. Blumberg makes similar claims in focusing on

the fertility-reduction component of increasing women's economic capacities, noting that

"educated, economically productive women not only will have fewer children but also will

enhance national output and welfare" (1975:21). Still others expand upon these ideas more so

for the purpose of emphasizing the importance of empowering women as individuals against

patriarchal development processes and economic systems (Rogers 1980; Ward 1984) and

carefully integrating them into the economy (Boulding 1981; Youssef 1975) while giving them

their full due with regard to the contributions they make for the benefit of society (Charlton

1984; Dixon-Mueller 1985; Henderson 1981; International Labor Organization Office for

Women 1981; United Nations Development Programme 1995). These and numerous other

56 studies continually re-affum the importance of achieving development that has equal benefits for men and women and enables society to benefit from and recognize the contributions of all its members.

All of this has specific and very important relevance to food security. First and

foremost, as noted women are a discriminated-against group and the distribution of and access to

food and general well-being in developing societies is no exception (Bennett 1987). In general

girls and adult women are more likely to experience malnutrition and related health

consequences than their male counterparts (Charlton 1984; United Nations Development

Programme 1995:35) while ironically at the same time are responsible for most of the food

production, working land they cannot own either because it is not economically feasible for them

to do so or because they are denied inheritance and ownership rights (Saeger 1997; United

Nations Development Programme 1995:38). The irony that women are the primary producers of

food, yet often the last to consume is of essential importance to food security considerations in

less industrialized societies.

In addition, women's roles in food security do not rest with production, for they are

largely responsible for processing and preparation as well thus constituting a number of tasks

(Charlton 1984; Dixon-Mueller 1985; International Labor Organization Office for Women

1981). In this regard women devote countless hours of the day doing laborious work related to

household food security needs from planting, hoeing, weeding, and harvesting, to herding,

cooking and cleaning, as well as gathering fuel and caring for the young and the aged. In this

regard, food security is first and foremost a women's issue in less industrialized societies. Much

research shows that there are key links between the power women have in the family and

household food security and family welfare (e.g.. Brown, Webb, and Haddad 1994; Kennedy and

57 Peters 1992). Thus, economic growth and development benefits fi’om enabling women to achieve their potential should trickle down to improve food security needs at the individual and

household levels through giving women greater decision making capacities and autonomy.

Tapping into the impact of female empowerment and the reduction gender inequalities on hunger

is therefore an integral foundation to any analysis of food security in less industrialized societies.

Lastly, a society in which discrimination occurs toward half of its population is not

utilizing its full potential with regard to human development goals. Thus, regardless of what

improving the lot of women does for the benefit of women themselves, a society in which gender

inequality is reduced is more likely to be a society that considers human well-being and fairer

treatment with regard to its citizenry a priority is thus more likely to view food security as a

greater priority. In addition, regardless of the extent to which women are responsible for

growing food or distributing it within the family, the women in development perspective could

argue that inequality existing with regard to one group is most likely to indicate inequality

toward others, and this becomes relevant to food security concerns, especially when considering

food distribution which 1 expect to be more closely tied to improvement in women's well-being.

As for a women in development perspective on globalization, there are both negative and

positive considerations from this point of view (see Afshar and Barrientos 1999). Those utilizing

a women and development perspective are not necessarily anti-globalization, but instead want to

ensure that patterns of global economic expansion benefit women as much as other portions of

the population and that they are not exploited by global economic processes as noted by

Ehrenreich and Fuentes (1995). As with the "development project" of old, this perspective

simply wants to ensure that women are included in globalization processes and not left behind.

58 thus emphasizing the contributions that the world's women can make to maximize the benefits of

globalization and contribute to well-being in less industrialized societies..

Military Famine Perspectives. The complexity of the military institution introduces

many challenges with regard to understanding the impact of militarism and militarization on

development and food security.^ Much discussion has centered around the question of "guns

versus butter" and debates over the positive and negative consequences of militarization on

economic growth and development in less industrialized countries while recent attention has

been given to new forms of security and the potential for a post-Cold War "peace dividend" to

improve human well-being (See Bullock and Firebaugh 1990; Chan 1985,1995; Mayer 1999).

An outgrowth of this traditional budgetary discussion of the military and society has been the

development of a critical approach to military power known as the "military famine" perspective.

Although not a formalized theory as is the case with modernization or techno-ecological

perspectives on food security, this approach has contributed much to the understanding of

processes contributing to hunger in less industrialized societies (see Brandt 1987; Cheatham

1994; de Soysa and Gleditsch 1999; Messer, Cohen, and D'Costa 1998; Macrae and Zwi 1994).

Discussion of development and food security from this perspective centers on the

impacts of militarism and militarization on food security in less industrialized societies with a

particular emphasis on hunger as a consequence of war. In this regard, famine and food

insecurity is not a process akin to drought or other natural disaster but instead is a human-

^ Scanlan and Jenkins (2001) elaborate upon the complexity of the military institution and its relationship with development noting the importance of distinguishing between militarism and militarization. They treat the former as increasing military control over social and economic resources while the latter is the use of military force as a means to resolve political conflicts that is typically associated with praetorianism (see Ross 1987; Vantuyll 1994). Collectively the two terras can be referred to as "military power" that in its multi-dimensionality can have either positive or negative effects on development depending on its form.

59 induced catastrophe that puts vulnerable populations at risk, most notably children, ethnic minorities, and the poor (Bennett 1987). Messer (1990) used the term "food wars" to include those conflicts in which include widespread food insecurity accompanying or following the fighting or in which hunger has been used as a weapon of war to weaken opposition forces.

Messer et al (1998:1) further elaborate on the importance of considering the relationship between conflict and hunger noting that the effects of war linger long past the period of actual combat, with food wars thus becoming a large contributor to chronic food insecurity. As Table 2.1 reveals, there are some 47 countries presently affected by "food wars" (Messer 1996; Messer et al 1998) with the majority being in less industrialized countries that can ill afford the destruction wrought by conflict.

Arguments claim that military coups, instability, or rule, repression, and civil or interstate war can negatively affect food supply and distribution in that normal food security channels are dramatically disrupted. For example, trade may be cut off, agricultural production and market patterns could be disrupted, landmines may prevent farmers from planting or harvesting, or persons may be fighting a war instead of working in the fields (Bread for the

World Institute 1994; Messert et al 1998). Furthermore, massive flows of refugees fleeing violence can place massive stress on the host country and others in the international community as they seek to meet food security and other humanitarian needs (Carnegie Commission on

Deadly Conflict 1997; Jenkins and Schmeidl 1995; Messer et al 1998). Furthermore, given that internal wars have been the most prevalent form of conflict since World War II, systematic denial of foodstuffs for opposition groups in the population such as ethnic minorities or political insrvgent groups as well as external foes thus constituting the widespread use of food "as weapon" in many developing societies (Macrae and Zwi 1992; Messer 1990; Messer et al 1998;

60 Nelson 1977). Work by de Soysa and Gleditsch (1999:56-61) cites examples from 3,000 years

of human history in which blockades, destruction of dams, irrigation systems, and enemy food

supplies, use of herbicides on cropland and orchards, and siege warfare in pursuit of starving

one's enemies has been a "legitimate" strategy of war.

Others point to tenuous relationship between military rule and the well-being of the state,

with particular emphasis on praetorianism and conduct of the military and potential preference

for political repression and favoritism with regard to allocation of state resources (Huntington

1968; Janowitz 1979; Sivard 1991; Wolpin 1981,1983). Similarly, others note that misplaced

priorities with regard to military expenditures and arms imports detract from more productive

private investment and the acquisition of basic needs and social welfare spending such as that for

education and health while also being associated with conflict and repression (Brzoska and

Ohlson 1987; Harris et al 1988; Kaldor 1976; Payne et al 1994; Thomas 1994; Wolpin 1983).

Finally, an increasing amount of research on military famine has incorporated ecological

concerns with scarcity and its contributions to conflict and impacts on food security (de Soysa

and Gleditsch 1999; Durham 1979; Hampson 1988; Homer-Dixon and Blitt 1998; Homer-Dixon

1993,1994; 1999). Often coupled with ethnic conflict to be discussed below, various "water

wars" (Starr 1991) have the potential for dominating the nature of conflicts in the twenty-first

century and food being at the core of resource needs, factors that contribute to its increasing

scarcity or maldistribution will fester in an ongoing cycle of deprivation and violence in less

industrialized societies.

The military famine perspective is most closely linked to globalization with regard to

interstate war and the spread of arms through the global arms trade. Those warning of the

famine potential of militarization do not necessarily view globalization as either positive or

61 negative but could take alternative positions depending on the issue at hand. Thus, some may claim that globalization is positive in that it ensures peace akin to neo-liberal economic practices in which trade partners are less likely to be combatants. Others could note, however, that the potential for exploitation and expanding global inequality, threats to resource scarcity, indigenous peoples, and global imperialism in all its forms could contribute to new forms of violence and backlash against global economic practices or spur new conflicts arising between regional powers. Such questions are too new to decipher with regard to the post-Cold War era, but will become increasingly relevant as continued patterns of globalization and integration of the world's peoples into the capitalist world economy persists.

To sum up the military famine perspective, this approach to understanding food security emphasizes the present and long-term detrimental impacts of militarism and militarization with a particular concern with the impact on refugee populations, ethnic minorities, women and children. In this regard, military famine approaches to food security point to the need to pursue peace through an end of abusive power on behalf of the military and the elimination of violence in all of its forms that prevents the adequate production and distribution of food to meet the needs of global citizens. The presence of structural violence as presented by Galtung (1969,

1990) is detrimental to food security enough on its own without being privy to increases resulting from militarized disputes.

Ethnic Antagonisms Perspectives. Building upon the military famine perspective and its relevance of food wars is the specific consideration of ethnic conflict and its links to food security in less industrialized societies. As with food security itself, ethnic relations present complex scenarios with multiple theoretical explanations accounting for antagonisms including developmental theories, internal colonialism and cultural division of labor models, and economic

62 models such as theories for split and segregated labor markets (see Blau 1977; Brown 1993;

Goldstone, Gurr, and Moshiri 1991; Gurr 1993; Gurr and Harff 1994; Gurr and Lichbach 1986;

Horowitz 1985; Jalali and Lipset 1992; Olzak 1983, 1992; Welsh 1993). In this project I do not specifically test each of the specific theories noted here but instead as with military famine treat ethnic antagonisms and the mobilization of various groups as a structural condition in less industrialized societies that can have important consequences for food security and development.

As Horowitz (1985) notes, ethnic conflict has been a recurrent phenomenon, which has become more noticed especially since the end of World War II. Its prevalence of late has seemed even more noticeable since the end of the Cold War and the loss of "stability" associated with East-West differences and the management imperative of domestic and regional conflicts to prevent escalation (de Soysa and Gleditsch 1999; Jowitt 1993; Zartman 1995). In addition,

Horowitz (1985), notes how ethnicity can permeate society, shaping or at least playing a role in politics, education, and the economy. For example, land distribution or political party formation may be based on ethnicity, Just as the right to attend a certain school, hold a certain job, or live in a specific section of the city or countryside may be as well. Gurr and Harff ( 1994) discuss the great potential for violence which exists as more and more ethnic groups seek autonomy and rights, noting that ethnic conflict is the largest source of war in the contemporary world.

Inequality among different groups in society is inherent to the pervasiveness of ethnicity. In this regard, economic, political, and social discrimination in a variety of forms create "minorities at risk" for violence and further isolation in society (Gurr 1993). Whether this violence is in the more direct form of genocide, or carried out in a more subtle fashion as with economic, political, or social discrimination, it is clear that ethnicity is an important consideration with regard to development

63 With regard to food security concerns specifically, ethnic antagonisms perspectives have much relevance, particularly in conjunction with ideas regarding military famines, though this is not the only context in which ethnicity matters. Although it is certainly the case that food insecurity can be rooted in the ethnic causes of civil wars or the extreme forms of ethnic conflict such as genocide and politicide, hunger can result from simple economic, political, or social discrimination as alluded to above (Gurr 1993) for these groups are most likely to be the poor and dispossessed. More specifically Messer et al (1998) discuss how in Central and Latin

America, for example, struggles revolve around the quest to escape underlying structural violence in search of land and social justice. They continue, claiming that conflicts "pit ruling elites . . . against the indigenous and mestizo poor, who seek environmental resources, fair wages, an end to state terror, and a political regime without racism that protects human rights"

(Messer et al 1998:11) with food security having important links to each of these goals.

Similarly, hunger and starvation associated with and following civil war and state breakdown in

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Indonesia, the Kashmir region of India, Sri Lanka, and the Sudan have everything to do with ethnic inequality just as much as land and ideology (Messer et al 1998).

What is clear from these and other studies noted above (e.g., Horowitz 1985; Olzak 1992) is that

ethnicity has been and will remain an important source of mobilization in less industrialized

societies with demands for economic and political rights associated with food security and social

well-being at the center of conflict.

Lastly, as for globalization and ethnic antagonisms, there are differing opinions

regarding its impacts here as with some of the above perspectives. For example, it is possible

that increased cross-borer interaction through education, economic processes, travel and the

complexity of global ethnic relations demands that antagonisms be relegated to the past. Thus,

64 taking a perspective akin to modernization points of view, some could say that ethnic antagonisms and conflict exemplify primitive relations that need to be eliminated should a country ever expect to enter the modern world. Thus, ethnic diversity results in carefully planned and managed economic and political practices for efficiency and adaptation to the complexities of globalization demand it. On the other hand, however, those critical of globalization may argue that ethnic groups, just like rural populations or women, are more likely to be exploited or discriminated against so as not to benefit from such processes. Furthermore, it could be that the growth of cities akin to globalization and development attracts people from a variety of backgrounds who instead of instead of integrating become hostile toward one another.

Thus, increasing immigration and refugee flows from various crises around the world are often the source of backlash against various ethnic groups traveling across international boarders in search of expanding opportunities. Globalization's impact on ethnic antagonisms and resulting impacts on food security in less industrialized economies therefore will depend on the fairness of the expansion and the extent to which the benefits of modernization and global expansion of the economy can be shared by people of diverse backgrounds.

Conclusion

If the "globalization project" as McMichael (1999) argues is replacing development as

the primary force shaping less industrialized societies, then one must consider how perspectives

typically considered theories of development can be equated with or at least accommodated by

globalization. In doing this globalization thus becomes the common thread tying each together

and serving as the root of not only their differences and debates but also their sources of overlap

and complementary components. In keeping with globalization being an extension of

development, modernization, techno-ecological and certain urbanization perspectives will

65 coincide with a more positive view of globalization while dependency/world system, neo-

Malthusian, urban bias, women in development, military famine, ethnic antagonisms, and conflict-oriented views of urbanization will most likely exhibit a more critical perspective. By examining the multiple perspectives in their globalization context, assessment, integration, and synthesis of theory is an essential component of this project.

Globalization therefore will serve as a forum for continued debates regarding these perspectives and their explanations of food security, thus providing a number of the flndings and making up a large portion of the discussion in this analysis. For example: Does a "global food order" exist as dependency perspectives claim, or is increased market liberalism, comparative advantage practices, and moves from subsistence agriculture the marks of efficiency and integration essential to modernity and global well-being as modernization theory believes? Is population pressure driving food insecurity as neo-Malthusians believe or is human innovation and adaptation occurring instead as techno-ecologists claim? Does urbanization contribute to food security patterns or should this theory be included in the wider notions of dependency or modernization theory? How does dependency, modernization, and demographic processes associated with globalization contribute to conflict, war, and/or inequality? How are more vulnerable and discriminated-against groups such as ethnic minorities, rural populations, women and children affected by such processes? What is the role of politics and global spread of democratization coupled with demands for the "right to food" and how do the various theoretical perspectives incorporate these ideas?

These are complex questions to consider. However, they are only a small sample of numerous other intricacies that bind the perspectives outlined above to food security, development, and globalization that give this analysis important methodological and theoretical

66 relevance to sociology. It is this web of interactions that I untangle in this analysis thus giving a more firm footing for the "sociology of hunger" lacking in the discipline.

67 Africa (n=21)

Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda

Asia and Oceania (n=9)

Afghanistan, Burma, Cambodia, India (Kashmir), Indonesia (East Timor/West Irian), Iraq, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey

Latin America and the Carribean (n=7)

Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru

Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (n=10)

Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Georgia, Moldova, Russia (Chechnya) Serbia, Tajikistan

Source: Messer et al 1998.

Table 2.1: Food Wars by Region and Country, 1998.

68 CHAPTERS

METHODS AND DATA

Introduction

As a topic of social scientific research, food security can be addressed using a variety of methods, from large sample cross national analyses to regional or case study approaches. There has been much discussion regarding comparative methods (Inkeles and Sasaki 1996, Lieberson

1991, Ragin 1985) and the benefits and drawbacks of utilizing either of these approaches as 1 discuss below, and one can reap rewards by understanding these, and taking an integrative approach that capitalizes on what is good from both to further develop the theoretical understanding of food security.

Cross-national analysis versus case-study approaches. There are both domestic and international causes of hunger in the less industrialized societies. For this reason it is essential to utilize a comparative perspective in doing food security research. Whether choosing a larger sample cross-national approach, or smaller case-study method one's knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of the global food system and events that occur beyond the

69 borders of individual countries but still affect them will be a great asset to overall understanding of the issue and its dynamics in less industrialized societies.

Studying food security from a cross-national perspective is beneficial in a number of ways. Numerous components of social change are macro-structural, global phenomena and can be studied as such, therefore having generalizable effects on food security in less industrialized countries. Performing large-sample, cross-national analyses helps food security researchers to more caiefiilly articulate which global trends have widespread, general effects. For example, ethnic and economic inequality, rapid population growth, and increased internationalization of global food markets are all global processes with effects that are potentially generalizable to a large number of countries. By utilizing such measures in simple descriptives of global trends and in more sophisticated multivariate analyses^, understanding food security at the global level can be enhanced.

Furthermore, policymakers that examine such data are able to address food security needs at the global level and take action that at a general level benefits a wide range of countries.

Implementation of programs to address widespread concerns regarding food security are universally beneficial only with careful consideration of cross-national phenomena. Thus, quality cross-national research can lead to good policy which in turn means widespread benefit.

However, a number of concerns arise regarding contextual and cultural factors within countries that are possible sources of influence that larger sample quantitative analysis may miss.

In this regard, there are important contributions from case-specific qualitative and historical

^ Ordinary least squares regression will typically suffice, though more rigorous methods such as generalized least squares may be necessary to correct for heteroskedasticity and model mis-specification. Because samples are generally small, one should also perform various regression diagnostics tests to ensure robustness of models including tests for influential cases as prescribed by Bollen and Jackman (1985).

70 evidence to explain food security in various countries, and how cases exhibit unique characteristics that distinguish it from the "typical" experience as described by cross-national analyses.

In this regard it is important to recognize that characteristics of individual countries, though linked to the larger world, also are important to understanding food security concerns.

Cross-national analyses show that certain variables are indeed generalizable while case approaches show the exceptions to such "rules" and more importantly explain provide evidence as to why this is the case. Examining the internal dynamics of a country can be very revealing with regard to why it is a food security success or failure, particularly with regard to internal conflict and politics, instability, and patterns of inequality, ethnic composition, land ownership, and so forth. Thus, although generalizable patterns are important, they cannot provide the complete picture for individual countries that a detailed study of an individual case may provide.

Case studies have the luxury of delving deeply into historical precedent, as well as ongoing distribution and consumption patterns with regard to food security that household surveys and community and state statistics can provide.

In addition, with regard to policy, it is also important to understand perhaps why broad- based applications will not or have not worked as well in some countries versus others. Just like cross-national studies can help formulate general policy, case studies provide information relevant to the specific needs of individual countries essential to successful implementation of programs within those countries that meet those special needs. Social context is very important, and unless local circumstances are understood food security needs are unlikely to be met.

However, comparative case studies have their limitations as well however, and in fact

Lieberson (1991:318) challenges the utility of making grand conclusions from small samples.

71 challenging assumptions that are made and the ability of such research to explain them.

Furthermore, "Small M’s" do not enable the researcher to consider probabilistic theories, interactions between variables, measurement errors, or multiple causality of variables. If small sample analyses are going to make large claims they need to be able to adequately justify why certain assumptions are made.

For reasons such as this I take a cross-national approach in this analysis. However, in doing so I believe it is essential to integrate the best of both approaches, thus highlighting the experience within individual cases where it can enhance the generalizable cross-national findings as I discuss below.

Integrative methods and links with theory. Choosing between case study or cross-

national analysis depends upon the goals of one's research and what aspects of food security one

is seeking to explain. "Generalists" could certainly benefit from increased understanding of

patterns in certain cases, while those with an area or country level of expertise should certainly

be aware of the much larger patterns of food security change. For this reason I suggest one

attempt to incorporate the best of both of these approaches.

Certainly one cannot do intensive case-study analysis of every countiy in the world, but

choosing a handful of theoretically important or regionally linked cases and comparing and

contrasting how these fit with general patterns certainly would make important contributions to

food security research. For example, examining a few OPEC countries in the context of cross­

national patterns would reveal the unique position of these states relative to non-oil exporting

nations. Or, perhaps one is interested in the Sahel or Great Lakes regions of Africa as compared

to general patterns, or the more densely populated countries of Southeast Asia as a contrast.

72 Historical and theoretical reasons for case selection can be further strengthened by contrasting such experiences with the general trends that cross-national studies purport to exist.

Finally, multiple methods and levels of analysis fits with the interdisciplinary and multiple theory perspective necessary for examining food security in less industrialized societies.

For example, when testing variables for modernization versus dependency theories of development, it certainly may be the case that although general patterns may support one or the other of these perspectives, there are cases that provide exceptions to these rules. In this regard the more thorough the analysis, the stronger the likelihood that contradictory evidence or exceptions can be addressed.

Methods

I examine the effects of militarization on food security between 1970 and 1990 in less industrialized countries with a population of 1 million or more at the start point of this period. 1 use an ordinary least squares lagged-panel design to examine the determinants of dietary energy and protein availability change net of its start-point level. I therefore examine the importance of

"supply" with regard to food security. Second, I use a lagged-panels to examine the factors contributing to 1990 levels of hunger in the total population and more specifically child hunger net of food availability change. By utilizing food availability as an independent variable in the

latter analyses, I test claims concerning whether increasing food supply improves the situation of hunger in less industrialized societies or that other contributing factors are more relevant.

Lagged panel designs are typically the preferred method for the analysis of structural trends that have considerable stability over time and in which the value at an earlier point is highly correlated with later values (Allison 1990; Finkel 1995:7-11). Such a design estimates the

impacts of independent predictors on change in the dependent measure thus providing an integral

73 assessment of longitudinal trends (Hannan 1979). Furthermore, there are several advantages of

utilizing lagged panels (see Jenkins and Scanlan 2000) including: 1) helping to eliminate

reciprocal effects and reduce spuriousness linked to potential exogenous variables; 2) reducing

problems associated with change score models such as the assumption that the lagged

endogenous variable does not have effect on later values; 3) allows for the examination of

longstanding structural conditions, unlike "fixed-effects" models (Allison 1990); and 4)

removing the effects of high correlation between the dependent variable at two points in time

thus producing a more conservative estimate of the effects of the independent variables (Hannan

1979).

In addition, I also perform standard procedures necessary to ensure robustness of

modeling in small sample, cross-national analyses, including checking for heteroskedasticity

(See Judge et al 1985) and testing for influential cases using standard methods (Bollen and

Jackman 1985). Finally, throughout the analysis I will supplement statistical modeling with

descriptive interpretation of data and patterns while citing examples from important case studies

to clarify macro-trends. In this chapter I discuss each variable of importance to this analysis and

its theoretical links. Appendix A contains a summary of their definitions, operational izations,

and sources while Appendix B contains the bivariate correlations between each of the dependent

and independent variables used in the models reported below.

Dependent Variable: Food Security

I examine two measures for food supply (dietary energy supply per capita, protein

supply per capita) and two measures that capture problems with distribution and vulnerability of

certain groups in society (hunger in the total population and child hunger). Table 3.1 contains

the means and standard deviations for each of the variables of interest for 1970 or 1975 and 1990

74 panels for which data are available in addition to presenting trends in these over the decades of

interest. I present descriptives for both less industrialized countries as a whole and broken down

by region. Additionally, Table 3.1 indicates cases experiencing food security decline across

each of the dependent variables for food security.

The two most commonly used measures of food security are the dietary energy supply per capita and protein supply per capita (see Bullock and Firebaugh 1990; Wimberley and Bello

1992). The dietary energy supply per capita is a measure of the caloric equivalent of the net food

supplies in a country computed by taking the sum of food from production and imports minus

food exports, divided by the total population. The protein supply per capita is constructed in the

same fashion, but instead uses the protein equivalent of the food available in a country. These

data are among the most consistently reliable and accurate measures available for developing

countries, having been produced on an annual basis by the United Nations Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAQ) for over three decades in "food balance sheets" for each country (FAG

1972, 1982,1992,1998; see also Quinn and Kennedy 1994),

One should not mistake food availability measures as food consumption as has been done

in past research (Wimberley and Bello 1992). These measures instead represent what would be

available on a daily basis to every person if there was equal distribution and access to this food.

As I examine below, increased food supply does not necessarily translate into improved well­

being for everyone. For this reason one should not examine only food availability but

supplement them with additional measures which I now describe.

As Table 3.1 reveals, there has been an overall upward trend of increasing food supply in

less industrialized countries with improvement in both dietary energy supply (8.92%) and protein

supply per capita (8.11%) over the 1970-1990 time period. This is consistent with the entire post

75 World War II period in which growth in agricultural production and food availability has experienced unprecedented growth that has kept pace with an increasing global population

(Thomas 1997). However, this growth is not shared equally by region as Table 3.1 reveals, with

Sub-Saharan Africa lagging behind the other regions with a 3.89% improvement in dietary energy supply and a 2.15% increase in protein supply. Similarly, Latin America and the

Carribean also experienced growth in dietary energy supply that was below the mean for all less industrialized countries with 6.82% and 3.79% increases in these measures respectively. North

Africa and the Middle East, on the other hand was home to more dramatic improvement in the food supply indicators, with over 20% growth in both, while Asia and Oceania experienced moderate improvement.

Next, I use the 1990 percentage o f hunger in the total population as an indicator of hunger in the total population (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1996a).

This measure is available as a three-year average for the years 1969-1971 and 1989-1991 and thus parallels my construct for dietary energy and protein supply. Although a threshold of food availability would be a nice standard with which to compare the well-being of countries, it is difficult to establish a universal human standard of need for daily energy or protein supply due to differences in age, climate, culture, level of activity, race, sex, and other items that determine individual needs (See World Health Organization 1985). However, The FAG has developed this measure of food security that takes a threshold into consideration for each country and uses that to determine the proportion of the population within that country which falls below that minimum need. Thus, what is sometimes referred to as "the relative inadequacy of food supply" takes existing levels of availability into consideration with consumption and household distribution patterns.

76 In constructing these estimates the FAO uses specifications for the distribution of food availability in each country and its minimum dietary energy supply requirement. Food distribution is estimated on the basis of surveys of household expenditures and food consumption patterns. The minimum dietary energy supply requirement is the point below which an average individual's consumption can be considered inadequate is computed for each country to account for inter-country and cultural differences in minimum food requirements. These estimates are derived from calculations based on energy requirements by age-sex groups and aggregating these results based on the age-sex composition of the population to represent the average minimum requirement for individuals in the specific population. A proportion of the population failing to meet necessary daily energy requirements is thus derived by applying the threshold point to the distribution patterns noted above.^ By being constructed from consistently proven availability data combined with basal metabolic needs of different cultures and individuals to formulate a minimum standard, this measure provides a good standard for indicating which countries experience the greatest barriers in access and distribution that result in increasing levels of hunger in the total population.

Table 3.1 reveals that in conjunction with increased dietary energy and protein availability there has also been improvement in the proportion of the population in less industrialized societies experiencing hunger with a mean reduction of nearly 12%. However, once again there is regional variation in the extent of decline. North Africa and the Middle East

* A joint report from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Health Organization, and the United Nations University (FAO 1985) contains a more detailed account of the methods and calculations used to construct this measure with additional information found in Appendix 3 of The Sixth World Food Survey (FAO 1996c), a summary of which can be found the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's The State o fFood Insecurity in the World 1999 (FAO 1999:7-8).

77 once again fared the best, reducing the proportion of hungry in the total population by 64.49% while Asian and Latin American hunger fell by 23.72% and 12.20% respectively. Sub-Saharan

Africa, however, actually experienced an increase in hunger during this time period, seeing the proportion rise by nearly 5%. Thus, although this region of the world experienced a small improvement in the food supply measures noted above, such growth did not carry over to the distributive component of food security captured by this measure. In addition, 37 countries experienced increasing hunger in the total population during the 1970 to 1990 time period.

These included Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Peru, Liberia, and Malawi exhibiting the largest percentage point increases, though most from this group were from the African

Subcontinent.

Fourth, I use child hunger, or the prevalence of undemutrition, derived from reliable national samples and anthropometry surveys for a large number of lesser developed countries circa 1975 and 1990 (UNDP 1994).* Children are most likely to have the greatest vulnerability to hunger in less industrialized countries and therefore child hunger can be associated with more general food access problems (Bennett 1987; Kelly 1992) thus capturing problems for ethnic minorities, peasants, and women. To further emphasize the vulnerability of these groups the

U.N. Food and Agriculture's Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping

Systems (FTVIMS) Programme highlights the most hunger-prone groups, including victims of conflict, migrant workers and their families, marginal populations in urban areas, people belonging to at-risk social groups, members of low-income households within vulnerable

* Unlike the food availability measures which are available on a time series basis and the measure of hunger in the total population which is constructed as a three year average circa 1970 and 1990, the prevalence of child hunger is only available in a couple panels. Thus, I use the earliest data available in 1975 as the start point from which to consider change.

78 livelihood systems, and dependent people living alone or in low-income households with large family size (Food and Agriculture Organization 1999:15). Children can be found in each of these groups, thus further increasing the likelihood of their vulnerability.

Undemutrition is the percentage of children under five whose weight for age is less than minus 2 standard deviations from the median of the reference population (World Bank 1997).

This measure is important in that like the relative adequacy of food supply it moves food security beyond simple measures of availability that has more than kept pace with population growth

(Dyson 1994). Instead it calls attention to problems of distribution and potential nutritional deficiencies that may result.

The method used to construct this measure is the Gomez "weight-for-age" system

(Foster and Leathers 1999: 62-63) which accounts for child hunger among the most severely undernourished and has been shown to be the most reliable gauge for childhood risk of undemutrition and its consequences. Using site visits in the field and household surveys conducted by the World Health Organization beginning in 1975 (UNDP 1994; FAO 1996) this measure indicates the percentage of children who are under the appropriate weight for their age.

As is the case with hunger in the total population, this measure considers the cultural, age, and sex characteristics of each country’s population thus making this measure country specific that is essential.

Once again Table 3.1 indicates food security improvement, this time being in the form of reduced child hunger with less industrialized countries having 20% decline in undemutrition.

But, once again improvement is not equally distributed. Although Asia and Oceania remains the most undernourished region of the globe with over one-third of its children experiencing hunger,

Sub-Saharan Africa is not too distant a second, with 25.89% children undemourished. In

79 addition, child hunger is improving in Asia at a greater rate than in Sub-Saharan Africa indicating that the two may possibly switch places in the near future. Finally, 12 countries experienced increases in child hunger, and not surprisingly each of these countries (with the exception of Senegal) exhibit food security decline in other the other forms discussed above with

Afghanistan and Angola having the greatest increases.

Taken together, these four measures address the complexities of food security either directly or indirectly capturing its various components, be it Tweeten's (1997) food availability, access, and utilization or Uvin's (1994) food shortage, poverty, and deprivation considerations.

For example, the dietary energy and protein supply variables directly measure food availability for each country by capturing the amount of food each person on average could obtain. At a different and more abstract level of analysis, though, per capita food availability for a country could also be perceived as that country's access to the global food supply. On the other hand hunger in the total population is not as direct of a measure. Because it is constructed from food supply data, it in one sense derives from availability. However, because it captures differentials in distribution of that available food by indicating that a segment of the population does not have adequate access to existing supplies, it is better understood as an indicator of food poverty and access problems. The same is true for the prevalence of child hunger in that it captures threats to food security on the most vulnerable segment of the population while in addition being more directly a measure of hunger in the total population.

In addition to these dependent variables, there are two food security outcome-related measures that merit discussion: the prevalence oflow-birth weight babies and the maternal mortality rate. Because of data limitations that restrict the availability of these measures only to later time panels (post-1985), I am unable to use them in the lagged-panel statistical design that I

80 have chosen for this analysis. However, because of their importance with regard to food security outcomes and the vulnerability that a certain group in society faces, namely women, they merit discussion here

The prevalence of low-birth weight babies could be considered an important indicator of gender inequality with regard to food access. According to the World Bank (1997) low-birth weight babies are children bom per thousand that weigh less than 2,500 grams, with the measurement taken within the first hours of life. Underweight births are directly linked to inadequate health and undemutrition of the mother (Hart 1993; Breslin 1998). Simply stated, low-birth weight babies indicate that a woman was inadequately nourished over the course of her pregnancy. As with child hunger, this measure is able to capture food access problems among another at-risk portion of the population: women. Even though food consumption needs for women are most likely to be the greatest when with child or during lactation, those needs are not always met, again the reason being due to discrimination or various forms of inequality and pregnancy is no guarantee of a more adequate diet. In fact, pregnancy most likely introduces new stresses on an otherwise already fragile state leading to high levels of matemal mortality

which I discuss below.

Table 3.2 reports a mean of 12.95 out of every 1,000 children bom in less industrialized

countries as a whole are bom with a low birth weight. Asia has the highest rate in this measure

with a mean prevalence of 17.27 births per 1,000 while Sub-Saharan Africa (14.24) also has a

value above the mean for all less industrialized countries in general. Thus, given the likely links

between measures for hunger in the total population and child hunger and the fact that these

regions fare worse on these measures as v/ell, regional findings here with regard with regard to

low-birth weight babies should not be surprising.

81 Similarly, matemal mortality could be considered another indicator of gender inequality in food access. As with the prevalence oflow-birth weight babies, this measure could serve as a good proxy for women's health problems associated with diet. To isolate food insecurity’s links to this, it is necessary to control for appropriate development and health indicators including availability and access to existing care which available data make difficult to do properly.

However, examining this cross-section descriptively and in the form of bivariate relationships with the other food security measures is useful to form a foundation for more complex analyses of matemal mortality in the future.

As also seen in Table 3.2, less industrialized countries have a mean matemal mortality rate of nearly 546 deaths per 100,000 live births with Sub-Saharan Afnca's rate of 907.37 by far being the highest rate among the various regions of the world. In fact, of the four regions examined, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only one with a matemal mortality rate above the mean for all less industrialized countries, with Asia (416.00), Latin America and the Carribean (202.27), and North Africa and the Middle-East (288.93) much better suited to ensure the health of the mother in childbirth.

Measures of food access at the cross-national level are in short supply. Thus, less direct measures such as the prevalence oflow-birth weight babies or matemal mortality are important supplements to extending dietary energy and protein availability, hunger in the total population, and child hunger as measures of food supply and distribution. In addition, it is essential that research move beyond simple questions of availability, and this analysis takes an important step in that direction. Gender discrimination, ethnic conflict, and rural-urban inequality are all

82 examples of patterns in the developing world that disrupt food availability and access and are important predictors as I detail below (Food and Agriculture Organization 1999:15).®

Lastly with regard to the dependent variables and related food security outcomes concepts and to reinforce that each of the concepts are capturing food security in some fashion or other. Table 3.3 contains the bivariate correlations for each of the dependent measures of interest for 1990 in addition to matemal mortality and the prevalence oflow-birth weight babies. As indicated in the table, significant correlations exist between each of the measures. Thus, whether they are tied more closely to the supply or distribution components of food security they are certainly related and therefore have this concept in common. Thus, the dietary energy and protein supply measures which are positive attributes of food security in that high values indicate food security improvement, are correlated highly and positively with each other. On the other hand these terms are negatively correlated with the measures for child hunger, hunger in the total population, the prevalence of low-birth weight babies, and matemal mortality which are

negative food security attributes in that values indicate food security decline. The bivariate

correlation level is an important starting point with which to later compare more complex

multivariate analyses that may not reveal identical conclusions. This is especially important to

® The most difficult concept to measure in cross-national research on food security is food utilization. One reason for this is that there are no direct measures available at a national level for a large number of countries in that utilization is more of an micro-level phenomenon. However, just as access is linked to availability, utilization has ties to both food availability and access. Those who straggle to obtain access to food because of poverty or discrimination are also likely to not have an adequately balanced or nutritious diet, therefore experiencing health problems or ultimately death. Food security starts with availability and being able to access that food, but if the environment is unsuitable to derive the nutritional worth from that food, then utilization that leads to proper health will certainly be inhibited. This will be an important matter in future research when better data become available at both the case and cross-national level.

83 consider with regard to the impact of food supply change on the measures for hunger in the total population and child hunger that the findings present in more detail below.

In addition to the bivariate correlations between the dependent variables and the related food security outcomes terms, several countries are highlighted at the bottom of both Tables 3.2 and 3.3 indicating they have highly volatile food security in addition to high levels of either maternal mortality or a large prevalence of low-birth weight babies. For example, a dozen countries including Angola, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Papua New Guinea, and Sri Lanka among others exhibit links between food security and its outcomes. This further reinforces the relationship between the dependent variables I utilize in this analysis and others that could be potentially used in the future.

Independent Variables

In this section I discuss each of the independent variables, organizing them according to theoretical blocs of most interest to food security. I test each theory separately for its ability to explain each dependent variable and then produce a combined equation using significant contributions from each perspective to explain food security outcomes.

Globalization perspectives. First with regard to various explanatory perspectives to consider, there are two variables that will be particularly useful for their links to globalization processes and food security. Such measures capture the extent to which countries are consumed by international economic, political, and social processes akin to other theories I examine below.

The first measure is the food import ratio. This is the proportion of a country's food imports relative to the total food available in a country for internal distribution (United Nations

Development Programme 1994). This concept is essential in that it isolates the international component of a country’s food availability that is considered in the construction of energy and

84 protein supply. Note that food for internal distribution is the sura of food production and imports, minus food exports. In this sense, countries which import a lot of food relative to exports and internal production will have high ratios, as is the case in the late 1980s with Hong

Kong (141.8), Kuwait (97.3), or the United Arab Emirates (136.5) which contrast with food producing countries in the developing world such as Argentina or India which have import ratios of .4 and 1.8 respectively (UNDP 1994).

Consideration of food available from imports is important given the continued globalization of the food market. Although primarily economic in nature, food marketing patterns also have political and social components. For example, exports of food to countries such as Iraq or North Korea have been limited because of political sanctions from the West, as a result of political and social dynamics within these societies. Even though increased reliance on food imports hints at "dependency," a term which often has negative connotations with regard to a country’s well-being, the food import ratio indicates a country’s ability to acquire food in the international market and therefore increase supply and overall food security. Food imports indicate the extent to which a country is tapped into the international market and therefore able to increase overall food security by taking advantage of this. Thus, when considering measures of food availability, it does not appear to matter whether food is produced internally, or obtained via imports but only that it is indeed available.

As Table 3.4 reveals, between 1970 and 1990 the world became increasingly reliant on food imports. Less industrialized countries as a whole increased their dependency by nearly

29% with Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the greatest increase at 40.38% followed by North

Africa and the Middle East (30.59%), Latin America (19.43%) and Asia/Oceania (20.79%).

However, despite seeing the largest growth, Sub-Saharan Africa is third in total reliability on

85 food imports with North Africa and the Middle East importing 70.23% in 1990, the most of any region, perhaps indicating the ability of this wealthier region of the world the luxury of food imports, as opposed to the necessity akin to food insecure regions.

Secondly, trade openness is another measure of economic globalization, capturing the extent of a country’s participate in the global economy (World Bank 1999). I construct this as a first difference change in the sum of total exports and imports in a country as a proportion of gross domestic product (Kenworthy 1999), indicating the level a country is linked to global economic patterns more generally than the food import ratio denoted above.

As with trends in the food import ratio, trade openness is also increasing, with less industrialized countries experiencing a 35.59% rise in this variable between 1970 and 1990.

Latin America and Asia led growth in trade openness with 59.20% and 58.13% increases respectively while North Africa and the Middle East maintained the highest regional level of trade openness at 82.71%. Sub-Saharan Africa lagged with less than 10% growth during this period.

Globalization has therefore been on the rise, making it an essential context to consider with regard to food security change. Whether it be the specific impact of food imports or the more general role of trade openness, increased international interaction resulting from global market forces are certainly likely to have an effect.

Modernization theory. There are numerous terms that researchers have utilized to capture the extent to which a country is moving toward modernity and in this section I present several of these measures.

The most basic measure for modernization is the logged level o f economic development which I measure as the logged gross national product per capita. Although I examine only less

86 industrialized countries in the analysis, there is still wide variation in modernization between them that makes controlling for level of economic development essential. As is typical in cross­ national analyses, the sample consists of some of the poorest countries in the world like Sierra

Leone, to the wealthiest, such as oil economies of the Middle East like Saudi Arabia. In addition, because countries are the unit of analysis and poverty is the most often cited reason for food insecurity, economic development serves as a measure of country’s "level of income" (see

Griffin 1987; Tweeten 1997) with which it acquires food from the "global marketplace."

Similar to a country's level of economic development and economic growth which I discuss below is growth in domestic investment (World Bank 1997). Growth in Domestic investment is important in that it captures the extent to which less industrialized societies are able or willing to commit themselves to development with spending intended to spur the economy and improve the lives of their citizenry through programs intended to enhance human development capabilities. Although domestic investment in agriculture specifically would perhaps link more directly to food security, the more general measure is more desirable with regard to modernization in that it captures spending that moves a society away ft-om traditional roots.

Similarly I consider the importance of developing a strong manufacturing base in the economy and its links to modernization. First is growth in industrialization indicated by the first difference change score in the portion of the labor force in industry between 1970 and 1990.

This measure captures the extent to which a nation's citizens are employed in "modem" sectors of the economy and therefore indicates a shift from "traditional" agriculture being dominant.

Even more specific with regard to growth in industrialization is the presence o fhigh-tech

indtistry. This is a measure of military modernization as indicated by a country's arms

87 production capacity which studies have shown to be essential to historical patterns of state-led

industrialization (Gerschenkron 1962; Kennedy 1974). Arms producers are likely to exemplify

modem countries in that numerous technology spin-offs have resulted from military research,

development, and production. Furthermore, such industrialization is important for contributing

to human capital development in addition to creating markets and increasing the prestige of the

state as seen from beyond its borders. The military institution has thus been an important

modernizing agent in developing societies, with influence in industry only one component of its

contributions to stability and growth in less industrialized countries.

Just because agriculture is typically considered to be a more traditional sector does not

mean that modernizing societies are void of agriculture or that it is not relevant. In fact, quite the

opposite could be the case when considering modernization and development within the

agricultural sector. First, a basic indicator of a societies level of development, and m^re

importantly for its absolute necessity for agricultural production I examine the first difference

change score in safe water access between 1970 and 1990. This measure is the percentage of the

population with reasonable access to safe water, including treated surface water or untreated but

uncontaminated water such as that from wells or springs (World Bank 1999). This measure is

important with regard to its ability to capture a country's environmental health and ability to

achieve this basic need in that clean water is essential for agricultural productivity and human

well-being. Second, with regard to farming specifically I test the impact of growth in the use of

modem irrigation systems which is indicated as the percentage of arable land purposely provided

with water between 1970 and 1990 (World Bank 1997). Irrigation has historically been an

essential component of increasing agricultural productivity, and the more that societies can use

88 spin-offs of industrialization to be less at the mercy of nature the more modem the system of agriculture is and therefore the likelihood of increased productivity and reduced food insecurity.

Next there are other measures of modernization that are also important with regard to their impact on creating "modem-thinking" individuals who can therefore appreciate and carry out a modemization agenda. One such measure is growth in the literacy rate of the population between 1970 and 1990. This is the first difference change in the percentage of adults aged 15 and above who can read and write (World Bank 1997). Secondly, there is human capita! formation in the form of growth in the secondary enrollment ratio (World Bank 1997), the proportion of students receiving secondary education, is a good general accounting of the development of the educational institution in a society, and the perceived need for developing the knowledge potential in a nation's citizenry. This measure takes literacy a step further in that a high secondary enrollment ratio implies a more serious effort to ingrain the importance of education into a country’s citizenry by investing in the institution. In this sense, it coincides closely with other measures of economic development and various indices of human well-being such as the United Nations Human Development Index (e.g., UNDP 1990) and the Morris'

(1979) Personal Quality of Life Index.

Lastly there are "political modemization" considerations to examine in this analysis which I examine in two forms: growth in democratization and the prevalence of human rights

89 violations. Democratization^ is indicated by the change in Gurr*s (1989) index of political democratization between 1965 and 1985 while human rights violations are captured by change in

Poe's (1995) construction of violations as reported by the U.S. State Department index. These measures are important in that they reveal the extent to which a state is committed to developing the human potential of a different sort: neo-liberal assumptions to pursue liberty of which food security has an essential component.

Dependency theory. Because food security is a global phenomenon it is necessary to consider international factors that may contribute to a country’s ability to meet its food needs. In this regard, dependency and related world system factors can help explain the links between individual countries and the potential for a larger world food order. Dependency and world system theorists are thus likely to emphasize the links between food security and underdevelopment that is the result of international phenomena. In this context one must consider an individual country's pattern of social change and whether it has accomplished development goals that would assist in food security needs. Dependency theory claims that the global economy has transformed self-sufficient, subsistence methods of agriculture, to more export-driven production that is a characteristic of the international capitalist order (Bates 1981), dramatically affecting the supply and distribution considerations essential to food security.

Some may question the relevance of growth in democratization versus level in that becoming "more democratic" as indicated by a 2-point change at the lower end of a democracy is the same as a 2-point change in the higher end, even though the former may still be much worse off. However, in testing both forms of this measure it appears that growth is the better predictor, especially given the importance of change in the dependent variables of interest in this analysis. In this regard, democratization is an important institutional mechanism to consider with regard to questions of distribution of food security and human rights considerations more broadly considered within the countries of interest as well as a "pre-requisite" for access to global goods such as food aid or development assistance important to geo-political interests.

90 1 use several measures to capture dependency arguments. First I consider the impact of the debt crisis on food security in less industrialized societies. Thus, I test the debt service load which I measure as the 1970 to 1990 change in the sum of principal repayments and interest payments on total external debt as a proportion of total exports (World Bank 1997). Debt dependency is believed to constrain economic growth and development, which the dependency perspective blames on international financial institutions such as the International Monetary

Fund and the World Bank.

Next I examine export dependency in two forms for its potential food security impacts.

One such measure is the level of commodity concentration index which reveals export dependency as indicated by the extent to which a country’s economy is dominated by a single sector (UNCTAD 1975-1988). This is an important indicator of countries adapting to modemization and the global economy by switching from localized subsistence markets to producing for export in order to maximize its output potential. Thus, the higher the concentration of a single commodity, the more likely the country is dependent on imports to round out the needs of its citizens, and, if dependency theory is true, the greater likelihood of being exploited. Similarly one could also consider export concentration in the form of export dependency in primary products which is a measure of first difference change in primary products exports over total exports from 1970 to 1990 (World Bank 1997). This measure more

directly captures the extent to which a developing country depends upon exports, accounting for

the importance of its top three exports to its export market as a whole.

In addition, one could also consider foreifft capital penetration as indicated by the ratio

of direct of foreign investment to GDP (Bomschier and Chase-Dunn 1985; World Bank 1997).

Dependency and world system theorists argue that direct foreign investment drains resources

91 from the countries in the periphery and improves the well-being of wealthier industrialized countries which exploit the poorer countries for cheap labor and natural resources. In addition, there are also links to increased debt and the inability of countries to translate transnational investment into improvement in local economies. To capture the effects on foreign investment on food security more specifically, one could also use foreign capital penetration in agriculture, the ratio of penetration in the agricultural sector by foreign actors to GDP in agriculture

(Bomschier and Chase-Dunn 1985). From a dependency perspective this would better capture disruption of subsistence agricultural systems by foreign intervention in the economy.

Penetration of this sort is likely transformative in that agriculture aimed at local consumption is now geared toward export markets.

With regard to foreign capital penetration it is important to consider the potential impacts of decapitalization and distorted growth on food security as in the Dixon and Boswell

(1996a, 1996b) debate with Firebaugh (1996) regarding the effects of foreign capital in less industrialized societies. Decapitalization is the crowding of growth in domestic investment constructed as an interaction term between the level of foreign capital penetration and domestic investment between 1967 and 1985. Distorted growth on the other hand is the interaction between level of foreign capital penetration and economic growth between 1967 and 1985 constructed to capture a "weak growth" effect that hinders development programs. According to dependency perspectives, both of these measures are essential to food security in that programs intended to increase food supply through agriculture subsidies or increasing imports, or plans to improve food access with infrastructural development or distribution programs could potentially be disrupted by foreign money disrupting local economic agendas.

92 Another form of disruption of the local economy of interest to the dependency perspective would be the growth in plantation agriculture in less industrialized societies. I measure this term as growth in permanent cropland as a proportion of arable land between 1970 and 1990 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2000). Plantations are more likely to be producing goods for export, thus transforming local economies into wage economies where locals work land they no longer own. Similarly I also test for the effects of growth in cash crop production which I construct as the first difference change in the production of non-food agricultural commodities between 1970 and 1990 (World Bank 1997). As with plantation agriculture, the goal of producing cash crops is profit which in turn is used to pay peasants wages with which they buy imported food which prior to being linked to global markets they would have grown themselves or purchased from local producers. Thus, from a dependency production, cash crop production should mean reduction in food security.

Because of the importance of distribution with regard to food security and the relationship between inequality and development, dependency and world system perspectives claim that poverty and inequality measures are essential considerations.' For example, one important consideration is agricultural inequality which I Muller and Seligson (1987) construct as a multiplicative term derived from the prevalence of land inequality weighted by the size of the agricultural labor force circa 1970. Muller and Seligson (1987) note that accounting for the agricultural labor force is essential in their construct so as to adequately gauge the true impact on

* Traditional measures of inequality such as the gini-coefficient for land inequality fiom Taylor and Jodice (1983) or various income inequality constructs such as the gini-coefficient for income inequality or quintile ratio measures from Moaddel (1994) or Deininger and Squire (1997b) unfortunately are too limited in coverage to be used in this analysis. Furthermore, it is not clear whether it is level of relative inequality or more absolute measures such as landlessness or absolute poverty as I discuss below that are more central to hunger.

93 landlessness in a society. That is, a high labor force in agriculture with large levels of land inequality indicates a system in which few peasants own the land they work, thus indicating the likelihood of plantation agriculture. Similarly, I also test landlessness as measured by the number of agricultural households without land as a proportion of the total labor force as derived by Prosterman and Riedinger (1982) is a central consideration given the importance of land as a source of sustenance and income to peasants in less industrialized societies. Deininger and

Squire (1997a), for example, consider landlessness to be strong proxy for wealth inequality in a country, therefore having important links to hunger.

In addition. The United Nations Development Programme (1997) provides three measures of poverty to capture a country's level of human deprivation. First is the 1990 human poverty index, which is constructed from three essential elements of human life: longevity, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. As with the gender-related development index I discuss below, this is a variant of the human development index but is intended to isolate the prevalence of poverty in global societies. Second, I use two measures for absolute poverty, the percentage of the population having a purchasing power parity of one dollar per day or less and the percentage of the population with incomes below the poverty line designated for each particular country (United Nations Development Programme 1997). Because the most important factor contributing to starvation is inability to afford food that is readily available (Sen 1981;

Lappé et al 1998), these measures of poverty are essential to consider in this realm. Thus, it may not be the prevalence of inequality in a society that contributes to hunger but instead the

presence of a large number of people who fall below a certain economic threshold that does not

enable them to obtain sustenance. Inequality simply means that some have more than others

which in thg food security realm is fine assuming that those who have the least have enough.

94 Absolute poverty on the other hand clearly indicates that those who have the least do not have enough and therefore are most vulnerable to food insecurity.

Urbanization perspectives. Urbanization is a complex dynamic which each of the above perspectives make competing claims regarding its impact on development, and of interest to this analysis, food security. From a dependency point of view, so-called "urban bias" perspectives shift the focus of inequality from between the north and south as in dependency theory to disarticulation between rural and urban areas within the developing world (Lipton 1977;

Bradshaw 1987; London and Smith 1988). The central argument of this thesis claims that development patterns favor urban areas in that economic elites gamer political power in the cities and formulate policy to their advantage while rural areas remain underdeveloped. Those taking a modemization perspective on the other band claim that the growth of cities is a necessary component of modemization leading to growth in the long mn outweighing the effects of short-term disarticulation and therefore contributing to development (Kasarda and Crenshaw

1991, Crenshaw and Oakey 1998). Rural-urban disparity is thus inevitable and necessary for the future of the society indicative of the "growing pains" associated with urbanization in less industrialized societies.

I consider several measures for their importance to development and food security.

First, I examine the 1970 to 1990 first difference change in rural-urban disparity, constmcting it as described by Bradshaw (1985)’ as the ratio of the percentage of non-agricultural GDP to the percentage of agricultural GDP divided by the ratio of the percentage of non-agricultural labor

’ Bradshaw (1985, 1987) also constructs a measure for "over-urbanization" which I do not analyze in this analysis because of uncertainty that the measure is actually capturing what Bradshaw claims. For example, when considering growth in overurbanization it is not clear that such change is moving farther away fiom some "normal" level of urbanization or is actually approaching it because a society started at a level below the "normal" expectations.

95 force to the percentage of agricultural labor force. Rural-urban disparity are important structural factors in a society associated with development with important consequences for food security.

For example, Lipton (1977) argues that an essential feature of urban bias is the disparity that exists between worker outputs in the different sectors of the economy relative to their size and how this favors urban areas over rural. In addition I also use the start point level of rural- urban disparity in 1970 as a measure for a heritage of economic dualism. Given the debate between modemization and dependency perspectives on urbanization, it is uncertain whether this heritage will have a positive or negative effect on food security and furthermore whether this effect differs with regard to its long and short-term impacts.

Although not ideal measures for disarticulation between rural and urban regions of less industrialized societies, Bradshaw's construct will suffice as a good proxy noting that caution should be taken when interpreting the results. However, because there may be doubt about their meaning 1 supplement these measures with additional components of urbanization that will capture rural-urban inequality.

Next I consider another form of disarticulation from Stokes and Anderson (1990) who construct this as a score for discrepancy between economic sectors in society with regard to their sizes and productivity thus capturing sectoral inequality. As with Bradshaw (1985) the interest is once again levels of productivity between rural and urban environments relative to existing inputs from each so as to determine if urban environments are benefitting or expanding at the expense of or by exploiting the rural sector of the economy.

Lastly, I examine two measures that further test the impacts of rural-urban disarticulation: rural to urban migration and the move from subsistence agriculture. Rural to urban migration is measured as the ratio of average annual percentage growth in urban

96 population to that of the rural population between 1970 and 1990 as an additional proxy for

"urban bias" and a preference for life in the city. In other words, growing urban populations could be an indication of the desire of the urban peasantry to escape the harsh life of the countryside and seek new opportunities in the city. Urbanization that keeps pace with the high fertility rates of the countryside is most likely attributed to migration (Crenshaw 2000) therefore making this an important measure to capture this dynamic. A positive effect of high rates of rural to urban migration is could most likely support either a modemization or urban bias perspective on urbanization in that city-life is an improvement in one's well-being and ^lerefore an important contributor to human development in less industrialized societies. However, a dependency perspective could argue that improvement in food security resulting from migration says nothing about reducing poverty or inequality and instead note that because of the globalized economy migrants have no choice but to search for opportunities in the city.

This can be further examined using the move from subsistence agriculture is constructed as 1970 to 1990 first difference change in productivity indicated by the ratio of agriculture value- added to labor force in agriculture. Subsistence agriculture is characterized by low levels of

productivity and minimal growth. Modemization perspectives would claim that low productivity

is evidence of a traditional economy that needs to modemize. Growing agricultural productivity

is an important step toward modemization in that it has consequences for urbanization and

increased use of technology. Dependency perspectives, on the other hand, would claim that

subsistence agriculture is desirable with regard to food security in that agrarian societies

survived for centuries feeding themselves without the needing to do away with traditional

practices and that outside interference in local economies disrupts their well-being. From this

97 point of view subsistence is therefore not necessarily harmful but instead an important way of

life for a portion of the global population content with their existence.

Urbanization is a central component of modemization, and the ability of a developing

society to adapt to this form of social change will have much to do with challenges confronting

the well-being of its citizens. The impacts of food security and the long-term development of

less industrialized societies largely depends on how well managed the urbanization process is

and the ability of societies to maximize the productive capacity associated with its dynamics so

as to minimize the disarticulation between rural and urban environments.

Neo-Malthusian theory. Population pressure from a variety of sources is very likely to

contribute to challenges of food security. Thus, there are several demographic measures that can

account for such an influence. First, there are two forms of population growth including the rural

population growth and rate the urban population growth Irate. measure the rural rate as the

average annual percentage change in population of populations living in rural portions of a

society (World Bank 1997) whereas the urban rate is growth in the population of individuals in

urban areas as specified by each country and reported to the United Nations (World Bank 1999).

Considering rural and urban population growth rates separately is important to more correctly

specify the source of the population growth that could be contributing to the effects of population

pressure on food security. For example, urban population growth is not necessarily an increase

in the overall population due to rising birthrates (or declining death rates), but instead could

result from rural to urban migration as I discuss above. In this regard, it means that there are

more "non food-producing mouths to feed" than when such individuals lived in rural

environments and most likely worked in agriculture. Rural population growth rates, on the other

98 hand, are more likely to capture the effects of population growth from increasing fertility as it is typically considered and correlations in Appendix B support this.

Second, I also consider the effects of the average annual percentage growth in total fertility rate as indicated by the average number of children that would be bom to a woman during her lifetime (World Bank 1994). Fertility is likely to be a better measure of population pressure in that It captures the increase in population due to births and not to people living longer lives. This is important in that population pressure comes from the demands of a growing young and less-productive population. In fact, to pinpoint this even further I use an additional measure, the age dependency ratio (ADR). I measure ADR as growth in the proportion of the population under 15 to those 15 and over to capture the effects of increases in the least productive segment of the population (World Bank 1994).'® This measure is similar to that used by Crenshaw et al

(1997) who found that the 15 and under population growth rate had negative effects on economic development, and I expect the same here with regard to food security.

Techno-ecological theory. There are numerous measures to consider which capture the ability of countries to adapt to ecological context and apply existing technologies to agricultural productivity and their food security needs. First are two of the most basic techno-ecological measures: techno-ecological heritage and agricultural density. Techno-ecological heritage Is constructed as a dummy variable for the pre-industrial technological and ecological heritage of a country, coded as industrializing agrarian nations equal to one, and industrializing horticultural nations equal to zero (Lenski and Nolan1984). This distinguishes the important evolutionary and

'® One could consider a more traditional measure of ADR that takes the ratio of those under 15 and over 65 to those between 15 and 65. However, given that the proportion of people over 65 in developing countries is so small, the real impact of this measure comes with growA at the lower end, hence using the similar form.

99 historical context by which developing nations in the pre-modem era began industrializing.

Such a distinction is essential given the important relevance the plow agriculture in industrializing agrarian nations to industrialization processes, including the complexity and size of the society, permanence of settlement, population growth, and urbanization (Lenski and Nolan

1984). Furthermore, agricultural density as indicated by the agricultural labor force divided by the surface area of arable land in square kilometers is a second traditional measure of techno- ecological theory (World Bank 1997). This is an essential consideration for this perspective in that it is believed a high population density is an important catalyst for agricultural development, industrialization, and fertility reduction (Crenshaw 1992). Thus, counter to neo-Malthusian perspectives which would claim that population pressure associated with high agrarian density is detrimental to food security, techno-ecological theorists note that density alone does not necessarily have to be a threat (Bongaarts 1996). Hence, countries such as Egypt or Indonesia are not food insecure relative to other less industrialized countries despite their high agricultural densities. Thus, agricultural density could facilitate agricultural efficiency and improve food security.

In addition to these more traditional measures for techno-ecological theory, there are

several constructs important to this perspective because of concerns with regard to the

agricultural economy and links to technological adaptation and change. First, one can consider

the agricultural value added in a country's economy as indicated by agriculture's contribution as

a proportion of its total gross domestic product and second, the laborforce in agriculture

measured as the proportion of the labor force employed in agriculture (World Bank 1997).

Although closely tied to modemization theory, these terms are essential to techno-ecological

explanations for food security in that they capture societies that remain rooted in an agricultural

100 heritage thus failing to adapt to trends in the globalization of technological change. Countries with dependency upon the agricultural sector are therefore evidence a "cultural lag" (Ogbum

1964) in that they have yet to make the transition to an industrial society.

Another important consideration is the diffusion o f green revolution technology to existing agricultural methods in less industrialized societies. To capture this one I use the rate of fertilizer consumption measured by the quantity of plant nutrients in lOO grams per hectare of arable land used, including nitrogenous, potash, and phosphate fertilizers (World Bank 1997).

Although there has been considerable debate regarding the green revolution and the application of expensive fertilizer and pesticide technologies that may have potentially detrimental environmental effects, it is possible that carefully planned application of such materials will be more beneficial than harmful, thus enabling countries to meet challenges from increasing population pressure through maximization of agricultural productivity. In this regard then, fertilizer consumption is an important techno-ecological adaptation to growing food security stress.

Similarly, there are numerous considerations regarding intensification of land use essential to the techno-ecological factors of food security. One can examine the proportion of land devoted to agricultural productivity in general, as well as more specific utilization of land, including percentage used for growing crops, cereal production, or permanent pasture (World

Bank 1997). More specific measures that account for improvements in food availability outputs should be superior to agriculture in general. For example, intensification of cereal land use is important in that cereals are the most essential staple to diets in the developing world, thus making decline or growth in their production important with regard to ecological adaptation.

101 To capture this I examine first difference change score in the intensification o f farming between 1970 and 1990. I construct this measure as the ratio of agricultural value added to arable land (World Bank 1997). Intensification of land use is more than just devoting increased amounts of land to farming, but also the productivity increase associated with it. Intense farming therefore produces more output on less land, be it through scientific farming techniques such as inter-planting and crop rotation or application of machinery or other technologies such as fertilizer discussed above or advanced irrigation systems denoted with regard to modemization theory.

As Boserup (1965) notes, growing population pressure and urbanization demands an altering existing land use strategies to enable production to keep pace. However, as with fertilizer consumption, there can be a potential downside to intensification of land use, particularly when considering finite land resources and environmental damage resulting fiom over farming, erosion, desertification, and soil depletion that contribute to the land degradation.

To capture this I use a close proxy which is the first difference change in the prevalence of

"waste land" (World Bank 1997) between 1970 and 1990 which captures the percentage of land that is not farmable, including grassland not used for pasture, desert, and built-up areas. Ideally I would prefer to have a more direct land degradation measure that captures such concerns for a large sample of LDCs, but consistent and feasible data do not exist. The International Soil

Reference and Information Centre (1991) constructs regional estimates, but disaggregating them to the country level makes suspect data more suspect Land use strategies that dramatically increase the amount of waste land would be detrimental to a country's ability to feed itself. Of most importance here is land lost to urban sprawl or over-farming. Thus, wetlands and forest cover, which are also included in this category are essential to the ecosystem and should only be

102 considered "waste land" in that they cannot be farmed, not that they are worthless or unnecessary to environmental health and ecological well-being of global societies.

In addition, infrastructural development is also essential to consider in that it captures the extent that food distribution network exists in a country. Although data are limited with regard to road, rail, and water transportation networks within LDCs, the World Bank (1997) does have a 1990 cross-section for the percentage of roads paved or sealed with asphalt or similar road-building materials that can provide an important context to the change in food security. Improved food production is unlikely to improve food security unless there are adequate means to distribute foodstuffs and get products to markets. This is especially important as rural lands increasingly supply growing urban populations and international markets. In addition, a road network is extremely important in times of humanitarian crisis in which aid packages need to be distributed to rural hinterlands.

Women in development perspectives. In keeping with past research on women in development (Benavot 1989; Boserup 1989; Dauber and Cain 1981; Dbcon-Mueller 1985; Tinker et al 1975; United Nations Development Programme 1995; Ward 1984), I use several key measures to tap into the extent to which women are able to actively and fully participate in society and pursue well-being.

First is growth in non-agriculturalfemale laborforce participation, which is measured

as growth between 1970 and 1990 in the proportion of the non-agricultural, adult labor force

comprised of women (International Labour Office 1986). Consideration of labor force

participation among women is only meaningful if it captures movement from the agricultural

sectoral in which they have always been employed in less industrialized societies. Simple

"female labor force participation" will be primarily capturing agricultural labor which does not

103 say anything about improvement of women's status in society or their ability to reduce dependency on male breadwinners for wages (Crenshaw 2000). In addition, labor force participation is also important for its links to other perspectives, most notably with fertility reduction and modemization which benefits from women working in non-traditional roles.

Next, I incorporate two measures that are important with regard to exhibiting the ability of women to attain an education that enables them to be contributing citizens to society. The first of these measures is female literacy which is the percentage of women aged 15 and above who can read and write and the second is the female schooling ratio, which measures women’s human capital formation indicated by the proportion of female secondary school enrollment relative to the corresponding age group in the total population (World Bank 1999). Women's Education has been examined at the cross-national level for its contributions to economic development

(Benevot 1989), but there has been no such analysis of whether such improvement trickles down to benefit food security. These measures capture investment in the social capital of the female population of a country, with equality implying that women are looked upon in less than traditional roles. In this regard, there is likely to be less gender inequality, and therefore more equal access with regard to food security. In addition, as with labor force participation, these measures are important for their modemization and neo-Malthusian links in that greater education is associated with reduced fertility characteristic of more industrialized societies.

Finally, for more general measures of women's well-being in a society, I test the gender- related development index (GDI) and gender empowerment (GEM) from the United Nations

Development Programme (1995). The gender-related development index captures the inequality between women and men with regard to a country's achievement in basic human capabilities, including education, income, and longevity. In this regard, it is a gender-specific measure of the

104 U.N.'s Human Development Index (1990) that indicates a country's overall social development situation, only adjusted downward for gender inequality (United Nations Development

Programme 1995:73). Large gaps between these measures reveal that women receive lesser priority with regard to human development emphases than men and in this regard is an important indicator of gender inequality.

Similarly, gender empowerment is measured as an index of the economic, political, and

professional participation of women in society, including the proportion of legislative seats,

administrative and managerial positions, professional and technical positions, and the earned

income share held by women (United Nations Development Programme 1995). This is

important in that countries in which women are empowered to make key decisions in society are

less likely to adhere to traditional roles for women, including links to high fertility. This

measure is available only for a single panel, circa 1994 and thus will only be useful to provide a

structural context of women's empowerment in these societies.

The United Nations Development Programme (1995:125-135) provides a thorough

discussion and complete summary of the computations used to create the gender-related

development index and the gender empowerment measure which I now summarize. In brief, the

GDI is a gender-sensitive adjustment to the human development index which uses a weighting

formula that captures a country's tendency toward inequality. This tendency is referred to as the

"harmonic mean" and is computed by taking the reciprocal of the population-weighted arithmetic

mean for indexed male and female achievement levels in life expectancy and educational

attainment (United Nations Development Programme 1995:130). Gender inequality on these

components is indicated by the extent to which the harmonic mean differs from the arithmetic

mean. There is also an income component included in the GDI which is calculated using the

105 male-female wage ratios and non-agricultural labor force participation ratios for males and

females in addition to estimating gender disparities in income based on an adjusted GDP per

capita based on gender disparity in proportional income shares. Once separate indices for the

income, education and longevity are computed the three are added together to produce the

overall index.

The GEM is more straightforward in its construction, using variables that more directly

measure the empowerment of women relative to men in political and economic aspects of

society (United Nations Development Programme 1995:132-133). These include gender

differences in administrative and managerial positions as well as professional and technical jobs

in the economic sector and proportions of parliamentary seats in the political sector. In addition

to these components the GEM also contains a measure for power over economic resources which

is and index for the purchasing power parity for each society. These components are each added

to construct the overall measure.

Although not ideal these measures provide a reasonable proxies for the state of gender

inequality in the world. Thus, they will serve as important measures for the women in

development perspective until better constructs with greater coverage can be developed in future

research. They are certainly the best general measures available for capturing gender inequality

for the world’s nations and will suffice for approximating its impacts on food security and

development in less industrialized societies.

Military famine perspectives. Apart from the potential positive effects of military

modemization associated with high-tech industry as noted above, there are several measures that

are important to consider with regard to their potential impacts of food security claimed by the

military famine perspective. These constructs give credence to the complexity of the military

106 institution and the importance considering both positive and negative potential with regard to food security and human well-being in less industrialized societies.

Those who are critical of the military modemization perspective emphasize the debilitating and negative impact that the military institution may have on development and food security. For example, there is the potentially negative effects of militarization on the economy in the form of the arms import burden (Brzoska and Ohlson 1987) and the military spending burden (U.S. Arms Controls and Disarmament Agency 1975, 1985,1994). I measure the arms import burden as the first difference change in the value of arms imports per real GNP between

1970 and 1990. This is an important consideration given the expansion of the global arms trade

(1994) and its impact on food security with regard to spending priorities which may detract from social welfare needs such as food imports or health and education expenditures (Thomas 1994).

Similarly, just as countries may be importing "guns" instead of "butter" the military spending burden in the form of expenditures as a percentage of a nation’s real GNP (U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency 1975, 1985, 1994) may also take away from the social welfare needs in society. Thus, from this perspective as a greater proportion of a country's GNP is linked to militarization, pursuing food security needs is crowded out and given less priority as a consequence.

Other key indicators from the military famine perspective emphasize the importance of potential violence derived from increased militarization in society. Often the most telling indicator of violence is the presence o f civil war (Kidron and Smith 1983, 1991; Singer and

Small 1993). Civil wars are essential to consider in that they have been a major form of political and social disruption in less industrialized societies that have a critical impact on food security (

Scanlan and Jenkins 2001). Such instability disrupts food production and distribution systems

107 while contributing to population displacement and systematic and consequential denial of sustenance from large segments of the population, thus serving as a classic example of human- made famine. The same could be said with the examination of the presence o fgeneral war in society as well. Although most conflicts are actually internal to less industrialized societies it is important to also assess the impact of war in general so as to ascertain its relevance to food security and the link between food security and conflict in general.

Three additional military famine measures that tap into the political nature of food security and account for the negative impacts on society are military repression and military instability. 1 measure military repression using a dummy variable to indicate its presence and absence (Kidron and Smith 1983, 1991). Contrary to a "modernizing" and unifying military

institution as believed by modemization theorists, military famine arguments claim that may

benefit only one segment of society which uses it to dominate other portions of society. Such

coercion is closely linked to the denial of basic rights, including food security. As for military

instability, which I measure as a scale based on military morale and loyalty to the state, coded

from zero to four, with the former representing stable and the latter being utterly unstable

(Kidron and Smith 1983, 1991). Military instability can be detrimental to food security, for

example, in that proper channels of food production and distribution may suffer in light of

instability from the presence of violence, irregular turnovers in government, or other factors

contributing to the existence of a weak state. Third is the examination of military regimes which

I measure as the intensity of military influence in politics based on the summed years in which a

military or mixed military-civilian regime held power in a society as a proportion of the years

between 1970 and 1985 (Gurr 1989). Unlike democratic regimes discussed above with regard to

modemization, military regimes may be less likely to pursue human development programs.

108 instead opting to pursue policy and take action that ensures their position of power.

Furthermore, it may be the case that military regimes tend to opt for more violent alternatives such as repression or become active more easily in armed conflict, be it civil or interstate war.

A final measure to consider with regard to the military famine perspective is the military participation ratio (MPR) which I measure as the first difference change in the ratio of armed

forces personnel per thousand in the labor force between 1970 and 1990 (U.S. Arms Control and

Disarmament Agency 1975, 1985,1994). However, it is not entirely clear that this measure is

truly a military famine construct in that past research (Bullock and Firebaugh 1990; Scanlan and

Jenkins 2001) have found positive effects of MPR on food security thus linking it more to

"military modemization" than military famine. However, because it is a core measure of

militarization in less industrialized societies and 1 am interested in testing the impact of the

military institution for its potential positive or negative effects, I include it with the remaining

militarization components.

Militarization and the potential for military famines thus brings many complex questions

to the discussion regarding food security in less industrialized societies. It is in considering the

multiple aspects of this phenomenon and that its links to food availability and distribution can be

fully understood, including its domestic foundations, and many international factors such as the

global arms trade and war.

Ethnic antagonisms perspectives. There are several measures for ethnic antagonisms to

consider, all of which are related in some fashion to the above theories. First, I test for ethnic

political discrimination which I measure as an intensity score based on the size of the minority

group and the level of discrimination which I derive from Gurr (1993). That is, an intensity

score is produced by weighting Q u it’s scale for ethnic discrimination by the size of the ethnic

109 group being targeted thus more accurately pinpointing the degree of discrimination in the society. Political discrimination serves as an important structural condition capturing the presence of "at risk" segments of the population who are the most likely victims of ethnic antagonisms.

In addition, there are three other measures to consider with regard to their ability to capture the structural condition of ethnic antagonisms and potential conflict. I use two measures to capture ethnic competition: The ratio of second largest to largest ethnic groups in a society as an indicator of potential ethnic conflict and the total number of ethnic groups present in a society to indicate ethnic differentiation potential {WorldChristian Encyclopedia 1982). The number of ethnic groups in a society is simply that, the sum of all of the different groups claiming an identity, while the ethnic competition ratio takes the two largest of these and puts them in a ratio to compare their sizes relative to each other. These are important in that the greater the number of ethnic groups contained in a society, the greater the potential for competition and demands from mobilized groups for equal treatment and protection with regard to discrimination, employment, political participation that dominant groups may find threatening. Furthermore, when the two largest groups are close in size, there is more potential for a power struggle between the two that could potentially produce conflict.

In addition, I also consider ethnic heterogeneity, measured as the proportion of the total population of a society that is comprised of multiple ethnic groups relative to the single group with the largest proportion of the population (Sullivan 1991). In other words the most populous group in an ethnically heterogeneous society would have a very small proportion of the population. Heterogeneity could challenge a country’s cohesiveness for, as with the number of ethnic groups in a society, largely heterogeneous populations should be more likely to have

110 competition and conflict stemming from ethnic differences and inequality. Furthermore, heterogeneity could lead to political instability, nationalist and separatist potential, and/or civil war as is the case currently in cases such as Ethiopia or the Sudan unlike ethnically homogeneous societies like North or South Korea which does not have to concern themselves with the potential threat of ethnic diversity.

Lastly, 1 use a dummy variable for the presence of genocide/politicide in a country as derived from Harff and Gurr (1989) and Fein (1993). Those countries which exhibit genocide and/or politicide, the most extreme form of ethnic competition and violence, are likely to represent cases of ethnic antagonisms more generally. That is, if there is genocide or politicide ethnic competition or political discrimination indicating less extreme forms of ethnic interactions are also likely, as are certain forms of military famine potentials, such as civil war or military repression.

Theoretical control variables. In addition to the measures presented above, there are two theoretical control variables that are also essential to consider: economic growth and level of economic development. By "theoretical controls" I want to emphasize the relevance of these terms to the theories noted above, mainly the modernization perspective but also having relevance to dependency, techno-ecology theory, the women in development perspectives and others. Because research on development and food security typically consider economic growth to be essential (Wimberley and Bello 1992; Bradshaw et al. 1993; Firebaugh and Beck 1994), I test for economic growth throughout the analysis using the logged ratio (Jackman 1980) in the values of real gross national product (ROMP) per capita between 1970 and 1985. As with level of economic development, this measure is most closely linked to modernization and is essential

111 to test with regard to the equation sequence for each theory as well as the final combination models for each theoretical perspective that I consider.

Much of the work on development in less industrialized societies has examined the determinants of economic growth. However, what has not been explored is whether this growth trickles down to improve human development, particularly with regard to questions of food security. The "trickle down" is an essential question, as is whether economic growth mediates the effects of any of the other independent variables. That is, it is possible that some predictors may work through economic growth in that they predict it and see their effects on food security operating through it For these reasons, then, one should not consider food security change apart from including the economic growth component of development and how it may improve human well-being in the form of increased food security in less industrialized societies.

I also control for the logged level o f economic development as indicated by the real gross national product per capita (RGNP) in 1970. As noted above this concept is the most basic form of modernization and is actually a strong indicator of this perspective. However, given the importance of modernization on food security it is also imperative to include this term throughout the analysis, thus essentially controlling for "modernization" in each equation as with economic growth. This measure ensures that any deleterious effects of the independent variable sequence are not due to a country's position at the lower spectrum of development. By controlling for economic development level findings are strengthened in that they are true net of

112 differences in modernization between countries and their varied abilities to afford improvements in food availability but other economic, social, or political causes of hunger."

Conclusion

To sum up, in this research, food security explanations can come from a variety of theoretical perspectives and concerns including neo-Malthusian, human ecology, modernization, dependency/world system, and urban bias theories in addition to special consideration for ethnic antagonisms and militarization in the developing world. Analyzing multiple measures will help to determine what decreases food security by limiting availability and access of food, and how this exacerbates health concerns that result from limited utilization of food resources by the world's populations. By integrating interdisciplinary perspectives and multiple theories and utilizing appropriate measures and methods, sociology can provide a more complete examination of the complexities of food security in less industrialized societies of the contemporary world

" An additional control to consider so as to account for potential specification bias and thus check for the possible influence of omitted variables associated with various parts of the globe I test for region. This measure consists of 4 dummy variables for global region with Asia and Oceania, Latin America, North Africa and the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa each separately coded as the reference category (equal to one) with all others equaling zero (derived from United Nations Development Programme 1993). However, tests revealed that these fail to achieve significance, meaning that omitted independent measures associated with a specific region are unlikely to be problematic.

113 Dietary Energy Supply Protein Supply Hunger in the Total Population Child Hunger

1970 1990 %A 1970 1990 %A 1970 1990 %A 1975 1990 %A

All Less 2223,44 2421,89 57 24 61 88 30,98 27,28 27,78 22,40 industrialized 8 92 8 11 -11,94 -20,00 (303.39) (411,28) (12 54) (14 54) (13,81) (17 52) (14,83) (13,45) Countries

Asia and Oceania 2202,91 2459 03 54,84 62,00 28,25 21,55 4 6 2 9 38,24 II 63 13 06 -23,72 -17,39 (281,17) (376,24) (12,14) (14 26) (12,10) (15,31) (16,25) (13,70)

Latin America and 2325,02 2483 49 59 91 62 18 2492 21,88 15,96 11,65 6,82 3 79 -12,20 -27 01 the Carribcan (260,11) (272 81) (10,77) (9,53) (13,89) (14,29) (7,04) (6,60)

North Africa and the 2399.51 2906,83 6 594 8058 25,77 9 15 I8 60 12,07 21 14 22,20 -64,49 -35,11 Middle East (431,51) (431 41) (13 99) (13 44) (16 00) (7 20) (7,77) (6,70)

Snb-Saharan Africa 2112 65 2194,89 53 83 54 99 37,85 39 59 30,29 25,89 3,89 2,15 4,60 -14,53 (237,55) (318,35) (II 69) (11,53) (11,02) (14,39) (9,76) (9,11)

Coitntries with Declining Alghanistan, Angola, Uurundi, Cainbodia. Cameroon, Central Alrican Rcpuhlic, Chad, Chile, Democratic Republic ol Congo, Ethiopia, Cihana, Dietary Energy Supply Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mongolia, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Rwatida, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sri (N =3I) Lanka, logo, Uganda, Uruguay, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Countries with Declining Arghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Chad, Democratic Republic ol Congo, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Jamaica, Kenya, Protein Supply (N=30) Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Uganda, Uruguay, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Countries with Increasing Alghanistan, Angola, Argentina, Bangladesh, Burundi. Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, Democratic Republic of Hunger in the Total Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Jamaica, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mongolia, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Panama, Paraguay, Population (N=37) Peru, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Uganda, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Countries with Increasing Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Coitgo, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Uruguay, Child Hunger (N=I2) Zambia

Table 3,01 : Means, Standard Deviations, and Trends in Dependent Variables. Prevalence of Low-birth weight Maternal Mortality Rate^^ babies^

All Less industrialized 12.95 545.69 countries (6.57) (470.89)

Asia and Oceania M il 416.00 (11J22) (399.19)

Latin America and the 9.95 20227 Carribean (2.81) (21925)

North Africa and the 9.01 288.93 Middle East (3.82) (349.80)

Sub-Saharan Africa 1424 907.37 (3.95) (408.32)

Countries with highest Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, percentages of low birth Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Buiidna Faso, weight births Guinea, Togo, Mozambique

Countries with largest Sierra Leone, Guinea, Nepal, Mozambique, rates of maternal Chad, Angola, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, mortality Uganda

•This is the percentage of children bom weighing less than 2,500 grams (World Bank 1997). ••This is measured as deaths per 100,000 live births (United Nations Development Programme 1997).

Table 3 J: Means and Standard Deviations in 1990 Food Security Outcome Variables Related to Women in Development

115 0 ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

(1) Dietary energy 1.0 Supply

(2) Protein supply .847* 1.0

(3) Hunger in the total -.831* -.672* 1.0 population

(4) Child hunger -.540* -.514* .448* 1.0

(5) Prevalence of low- -.440* -.496* .796* .354* 1.0 birth weight babies

(6) Maternal mortality -.626* -.551* .527* .663* .469* 1.0 rate * significant at .01 level or greater, two tails

Table 3.3: Bivariate Correlations of Dependent Variables and Related Food Security Outcome Variables, circa 1990.

116 Food Import Ratio Trade Openness 1970 1990 M 1970 1990 %A

All less industrialized 23.38 30.14 28.91 46.42 62.94 35.59 countries

Asia and Oceania 17.73 20.79 1726 43.42 68.66 58.13

Latin America 22.39 26.74 19.43 37.50 59.70 59.20

North Africa and 53.78 7023 30.59 54.12 82.71 52.83 the Middle East

Sub-Saharan A 18.45 25.90 40.38 51.40 5623 9.40

Countries with Algeria, Iraq, Lesotho, Jordan, Angola, Mauritania, South Korea, largest increases in Egypt, Dominican Republic, Mexico food imports

Countries with Singapore, Malaysia, Lesotho, Nigeria, Tunisia, Paraguay, largest increases in Thailand, Jamaica, Chile, Dominican Republic trade openness

Table 3.4: Means and Trends for Globalization Measures, 1970-1990.

117 CHAPTER 4

THE DETERMINANTS OF FOOD AVAILABILITY IN LESS INDUSTRIALIZED

SOCIETIES: A CONSIDERATION OF CHANGE IN DIETARY ENERGY AND

PROTEIN SUPPLY

Introduction

In this chapter I examine the multiple determinants of food supply in less industrialized societies. By beginning with the most basic question of dietary energy and protein supply and factors that increase or inhibit its flow, these analyses form an important foundation with which to build additional models that explore more pertinent issues of food distribution and outcomes of food insecurity.

Food security as indicated by notions of availability or supply is the most basic way of considering hunger. Unless there is ample food supply, questions of how it is distributed between nations and among the population within countries, or whether it is of balanced, nutritional quality are moot For this reason, food security concerns typically begin with the classic "Malthusian question" discussed above and whether the world can continue to feed its booming population (Brown and Kane 1994; Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990; Cohen 1995). The limited sociological literature on food security that exists has examined the question of supply.

118 unfortunately mis-labeling the concept of "consumption" (e.g. Wimberley 1991; Wimberley and

Bello 1992; see also Firebaugh and Beck 1994) and not addressed its additional components.

However, as I elaborate more clearly below this question is only a start, so one therefore must not stop with this single debate. Furthermore, food availability is a necessary but not sufficient component of food security analysis that one should examine apart from more specific concerns that move beyond supply.

Findings

The theoretical models. Tables 4.1 through 4.10 report the results for lagged panel regression of the determinants of dietary energy and protein supply change from circa 1970 to circa 1990. I report results for both caloric and protein models, but discussion focuses on the former of these because it has greater relevance to low-income diets and hunger. Furthermore, results are nearly identical for these dependent variables, so discussion of the protein models is centered upon where they differ from the dietary energy supply equations. 1 begin with a simple base model with controls for the lagged level of dietary energy supply, the level of economic development, and economic growth. I then test each theoretical perspective net of each control with the exception of economic growth, which I test at the end of the equation sequence to determine which of the independent variables may have effects mediated by growth. Because development studies often consider growth as the dependent variable it is essential to include it as a control in this analysis so as to determine if its benefits automatically translate to human welfare in the form of food security as considered here.

The sample consists of less-industrialized countries with a population of 1 million or more in 1970. I use an ordinary least squares lagged panel design to determine the effects of

119 independent variables net of the dependent variable at an earlier point in time. I perform standard procedures necessary to ensure robustness of modeling in small sample, cross-national analyses, including examination of residual plots to test for heteroskedasticity and checks for influential cases using standard methods from Bollen and Jackman (1985) and these indicated no problems.'^ Because of missing data, the final models in the analysis contain 49 cases for the combined dietary energy and protein supply models."

Table 4.1 contains the base model (Equation 1) in addition to the globalization determinants of food availability. As expected, the base model reveals that the lagged level of food availability significantly improves food availability, as do economic development level and economic growth. Economic development level indicative of modernization and ultimately telling of a country's "income" available for purchasing foodstuffs is an important consideration, thus paralleling claims that poverty is one of the biggest cause of hunger at the individual level

(Lappé et al 1998).

It is also worth reporting the impact of absolute poverty on dietary energy supply. Just as economic development level is an important modernization variable and determinant of a

" Three cases, Argentina, Egypt, and Zambia, appear as outliers using the Bollen and Jackman tests. However, removing Üiese cases individually and simultaneously in the modeling sequence reveal that they do not affect the results analysis and are therefore not influential cases.

" The sample for the caloric and protein supply models includes: Algeria, Argentina, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Chad, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, Indonesia, Iran, Jamaica, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, South Korea, Sudan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

120 country’s ability to acquire food, absolute poverty in the form of the percentage of a country's population living below the poverty line as defined by that country, and the proportion of the population of a country living on less than one dollar per day purchasing power parity both negatively impact dietary energy supply. In addition, when used in combined equations these measures are consistently among the strongest if not the strongest. However, because of the limited number of cases for which data are available (N=25 in combined equations) and I treat these effects cautiously and consider them only supplementary to the main findings.

Equation 2 removes the economic growth term and replaces it with two measures of globalization: the food import ratio and trade openness. Both significantly improve dietary energy supply thus indicating that neoliberalism is important to food availability concerns in that the market appears to provide for growth in global supply thus verifying claims by Tweeten and

McClelland (1997) or Bongaarts (1996). Adding economic growth (Equation 3) washes out the trade openness term indicating that it is partially mediated by growth. That is, trade openness as a component of globalization is associated with and important to economic growth as the correlation between these two terms suggests (r=.43). The presence of a global food order thus does not appear to have the negative impact that those critical of globalization processes claim

(Friedmann 1982,1993; McMichael 1997).

The base model (Equation 4) predicting change in protein availability was identical to that for dietary energy supply, the exception being of course that the lagged term is prior level of protein supply rather than calories. However, there is slight variation in the globalization models, with trade openness not significant as indicated in Equation 5. Therefore, openness to and participation in the global economy is more important for acquiring basic food needs as

121 indicated by its significance in the dietary energy supply models than it is for protein. This may be surprising in that some of the high protein consuming economies such as Mexico, Singapore, and South Korea are also active participants in the global economy. On the other hand, countries such as Mongolia consume higher levels of protein because they are herding societies and therefore do not need to acquire it on the global market, or it may be at least less likely that trade openness within such societies would improve an already high level of protein in the diets of their citizenry.

Table 4.2 presents findings for the modernization determinants of dietary energy and

protein supply between 1970 and 1990. Equation 1 presents the first of four equations

examining the impact of modernization on dietary energy supply. Land under irrigation

indicative of modernization in the agricultural sector contributes positively to food security

indicating the development of improved agricultural systems is important for increasing food

supplies. In addition, human capital formation as indicated by the secondary enrollment ratio

also improves dietary energy supply, reinforcing classical modernization perspectives on the

importance of an educated citizenry for development well-being.

Equation 2 adds industrialization indicated by growth in the labor force in industry also

contributes to food security. This term washes out the significance of development level

indicating that development is largely linked to the growth and size of a country’s industrial

sector. Adding arms production capacity (Equation 3) to this equation as an indicator of high-

tech industry reveals that it too is positive and significant, and also washes out the irrigation and

secondary enrollment terms. This makes sense in that human capital formation and

modernization in the agricultural sector most likely accompany the implementation of high-tech

122 industry in developing societies. Lastly, adding economic growth to these equations (Equation

4) reveals that it does not alter these results, nor is it itself significant. Thus, these terms appear to operate independently of growth. Overall, the modernization models shows the importance of including this theory as a foundation for beginning to analyze food security from a supply perspective.'^

The modernization predictors of change in protein availability reported in Equation 5 are identical with the exception of growth in the proportion of agricultural land under irrigation and industrialization. As with openness to international markets noted above with regard to globalization it appears, the implementation of irrigation systems improves basic food supply but not protein specifically. This most likely has to do with the types of crops under irrigation agriculture and whether they are high in protein. The growth in industrialization term is a little less clear other than protein availability being too specific a form of food security to not be influenced by a broad general trend such as increases in the industrial labor force.

Table 4.3 presents findings for dependency explanations of change in dietary energy supply between 1970 and 1990. As Equation 1 reveals export dependency, agricultural inequality, and the ratio of foreign stock to total stock all have a negative impact on dietary energy supply. In addition. Equation 2 reveals that the stock ratio is partially mediated by economic growth, as it is washed out Thus, in support of dependency arguments that emphasize

'*In addition to the modernization variables reported in Table 4.2, growth in domestic investment was also a significant predictor of change in dietary energy supply in simple models. However, this term is washed out due to shared variance with the combination of the irrigation, industrial labor force, and secondary enrollment ratio terms. Thus, domestic investment is important, though not as proximate as agricultural development, human capital formation, or industrialization.

123 the negative impacts of export agricultural on less industrialized societies, concentration on marketing a few primary products as indicated by the export dependency term inhibits these nations' abilities to supply themselves with food. Similarly, agricultural inequality within less industrialized societies has an identical effect, most likely the result of shifts from subsistence to marketed agriculture and the reduction in land ownership among peasant laborers or other small holders relative to the size of the agricultural labor force in these societies.

As for the negative impact of foreign stock over total stock on dietary energy supply, because it is a ratio variable one should not interpret this as foreign investment having an outright negative impact. Instead, relative to domestic investment stock, foreign ownership is less helpful thus paralleling claims by Dixon and Boswell (1996a, 1996b) regarding the negative impacts of foreign capital penetration and inequality in the long term. Furthermore, as Equation

3 reveals, findings also show support for Dixon and Boswell's (1996a, 1996b) decapitalization hypothesis indicated by the significant effect of the interaction of foreign capital penetration and growth in domestic investment. Thus, foreign investment has the negative impact of crowding out domestic spending and therefore inhibiting food security in the form of dietary energy supply. In addition, the inclusion of the agricultural inequality term washes out decapitalization thus indicating the association between the two. Thus, foreign investment appears to crowd out domestic investment and ownership of agricultural land that contributes to internal inequality, thus supporting a classic dependency perspective.

Further evidence of this is found by testing the level of foreign capital penetration in the agricultural sector (Bomschier and Chase-Dunnl98S). Equation 4 shows that substituting agricultural foreign capital penetration for the general penetration term reveals parallel results.

124 Interestingly, the addition of the decapitalization term (Equation 5) washes out the significance of agricultural penetration indicating that the latter is at least partially working through crowding of domestic investment by foreign sources.

However, testing the impact of plantation agriculture measured as the proportion of agricultural land that is permanent cropland does not indicate that large farming systems are more harmful than smaller, domestic-owned plots, nor do plantations have the opposite effect of significantly improving dietary energy supply. In addition, there was no support found for Dixon and Boswell's (1996a, 1996b) "distorted growth hypothesis" that would further solidify the dependency perspective's claims regarding the perils of foreign investment. In this regard, debates concerning the productivity of small farms versus plantations and their links to foreign investment cannot entirely be resolved in this analysis and will largely depend on better data that more accurately depicts plantation agriculture and links to exports as with specific products as with coffee plantations and other export commodities.

Finally with regard to dependency it is interesting to present a couple of important "non­ effects" for consideration, most notably the inability of the debt service ratio to significantly explain change in dietary energy supply. Although Bradshaw et al (1989) find negative impacts of debt on child well-being, those effects do not carry over to food supply. This is the case regardless of the form of change used to indicate debt and the period of change examined to allow for varied time-lags. From a dependency point of view or the perspective of those critical of globalization this is a curious finding. Furthermore, given there is no correlation between food import ratio in debt, countries are not choosing to improve their food security by going into debt for purchasing foodstuffs. Such questions will merit fiiture consideration.

125 The protein models for the dependency perspective were identical to the dietary energy supply equations except that export dependency is never significant. Dependency claims that focusing one’s economy on the export of a few primary products is detrimental to general food supply and not the protein component of that supply. Thus, because dietary energy supply is more essential to the least developed of the less industrialized countries, it is likely that the negative effects of export dependency have a greater impact on the poorer countries.

As an extension of debates between modernization and dependency perspectives on development and a test of urban bias and dualism perspectives. Table 4.4 presents results for urbanization perspectives on dietary energy supply. Equation I reveals that although significant in simple equations, Stokes and Anderson's (1990) economic disarticulation score does not affect dietary energy supply while dualism in the form of disparity between rural and urban sectors and change in this term from 1965 to 1985 as a proxy for urban bias both have negative effects.

Adding economic growth (Equation 2) washes out the dualism term indicating its effects are working through it. Thus, urbanization and resulting disparity with rural portions of less industrialized societies are essential considerations and given that both a start point dualism term is combined with a short-term period of change it appears that urban bias and associated dependency perspectives correctly assess the negative impacts of rural-urban disarticulation and its links to food security concerns.

As for the protein model reported in Equations 3 and 4, it is identical with the exception of the non-significant effect of the dualism term prior to the addition of economic growth.

Dualism is therefore akin to broad based food security concerns and not the specific impacts of protein availability.

126 Table 4.5 presents findings for neo-Malthusian determinants of food security. Equation

1 revels that change in the age dependency ratio negatively impacts dietary energy supply net of economic development and the lagged control. However, adding growth in the total fertility rate

(Equation 2) indicates that it is the more proximate population measure, washing out age dependency. Thus, I use it in the remaining equation introducing economic growth which is not significant. Fertility change and the population pressure associated with it therefore is detrimental to growth in dietary energy supply. However, as with dependency theory it is also useful to note forms of population pressure are not significant, most notably the growth rate of the total population as well as its urban and rural subsets. Population pressure thus must come from a specific portion of the population, such as the younger segment of the population as indicated by fertility change or the age dependency ratio which is capturing the impacts of a large population under the age of 15. In other words, correct specification of neo-Malthusian predictors is essential to adequately grasp what form of population pressure is relevant to food security concerns.

With regard to predicting change in protein availability none of the neo-Malthusian predictors ever show significance. This is the case not only with the fertility term shown in

Equation 4, but also with age dependency, agricultural density, and population growth in its multiple forms. Population pressure therefore is of more relevance to the amount of food that populations have available to them and not the type of food that is available thus making it a more general threat

In Table 4.61 present two equations for the techno-ecological determinants of change in dietary energy supply. In equation I, the dummy variable for techno-ecological heritage

127 indicates that industrializing agrarian societies are significantly better off with regard to dietary energy supply than industrializing horticultural societies. Thus, a country’s stage of evolutionary development at the onset of industrialization is essential in that agricultural economies are better able to confront the challenges confronting these than horticultural societies. Just as studies have shown that techno-ecological heritage is important to development in general (Lenski and Nolan

1994), this analysis reveals that to be the case with more specific human well-being components of development

Agricultural density growth is also positive and significant, thus countering neo-

Malthusian claims that agricultural density is detrimental to food security. Density thus provides a critical mass in the population that promotes adaptation and social change that responds to the resulting pressure on the population. Similarly, other forms of adaptation to food security demands also improve dietary energy supply change. Thus, intensification of agriculture, the diffusion of Green Revolution technologies, and infrastructure development each have a positive impact on dietary energy supply. In this regard, productive technologies resulting from human adaptation to perceived constraints from social change are essential considerations with regard to food security. Lastly, I also examine the impact of growth in the agricultural labor force on food security, which has a negative effect on dietary energy supply. As with techno-ecological heritage, the prevalence of a large agricultural sector is important in that it provides an important context to consider. Just as an increase in the industrial labor force is indicative of modernization, maintaining a large agricultural labor force or at least failing to reduce it relative to the other sectors indicates a country's present stage in ecological-evolutionary development.

128 Equation 2 adds economic growth which does not affect change in dietary energy supply, nor does it wash out any of the above indicators. Thus, in addition to their impact net of a non­ significant control for modernization theory in the form of economic development level, each measure of techno-ecological theory operates separately from growth as well. This is important in that terms such as the presence of infiastructural development or fertilizer consumption for example could potentially be considered modernization terms. Techno-ecological considerations have largely been unexplored with regard food security change and findings here indicate that utilization of this perspective is critical to adequate assessment of hunger considerations.

Examining the techno-ecological factors of protein supply change reveals parallel results to the dietary energy supply models with the exception of growth in the agricultural labor force and intensification of agriculture being not significant as Equation 3 reveals. In addition, it is also interesting to note that the dummy variable for techno-ecological heritage is only weakly significant in the protein model, some of its effect being explained away by the addition of economic growth as with the dietary energy supply models. In this regard much of techno- ecological heritage has to do with the benefits of economic growth, though this latter term is not significant. In this regard, industrializing agricultural societies are therefore likely to experience more rapid economic growth than industrializing horticultural societies.

The next perspective to consider with regard to change in dietary energy supply is the women in development perspective that Table 4.7 presents. Equation one indicates that change in the gender-related development index significantly improves dietary energy supply while the female secondary enrollment ratio has no effect. However, when introducing economic growth to the model as in Equation 2, it is significant indicating that the education of women in the

129 context of a growing economy has an impact on food security. In this regard, pursuing development policies that improve the position of women relative to their male counterparts in society has an overall societal benefit. It is therefore important that countries continually strive to improve the lot of women and their place in the functioning of the state, especially in matters of human well-being.

The women in development predictors of protein supply indicate identical results to those for dietary energy supply as Equation 3 indicates. It is interesting to note that this and the military famine and ethnic antagonisms perspectives are the only models in which the equations produced the same findings. Though data do not permit confirmation, it is possible that because women in most less industrialized societies are responsible for food gathering and preparation, educating and empowering them has effects on the specific, more nutrition-oriented component

of supply represented by protein availability in the same fashion as with general supply. Case

studies have shown (e.g. Bamji and Thimayamma 2000; Bisgrove and Popkin 1996) that

economically empowered women make more sound nutritional decisions at the household level,

and findings here imply that this may possibly be extended to the cross-national level as well. In

addition, and as will be explored further below, it may also be that in the case of food

deprivation associated with military or ethnic conflict, nutrition associated with protein supply

and the more simple notion of dietary energy supply become closer to being the same thing.

The "military famine" which 1 present in Table 4.8 is the next perspective to consider.

Equation 1 reveals the impacts of several militarization concerns, most notably the opposite

effects of change in military spending relative to GNP and the military participation ratio, which

respectively have negative and positive impacts on change in dietary energy supply. Military

130 spending therefore constitutes a burden on less industrialized societies who would more likely benefit from alternative forms of investment that have a positive impact on human well-being such as education or health expenditures that are less likely to contribute to military famines.

Social militarization in the form of the military participation ratio do not contribute to military famines, however, and in fact significantly improves dietary energy supply. This finding is consistent with Bullock and Firebaugh (1990) and Jenkins and Scanlan (2000) and most likely constitutes a human capital formation process in which recruits from relatively diverse ethnic and class backgrounds receive discipline, education, and training that enable them to become not only good soldiers but productive citizens. Therefore in line with Andreski’s (1968) formulation of the military participation ratio, social militarization has an integrative effect on society that has positive development spinoffs and in many ways constitutes modernization processes more so than military famine.

In addition to the burden associated with military spending, there is also a negative impact on dietary energy supply from growth in arms imports as a proportion of GNP. This provides an important international link to the ongoing militarization processes within less industrialized societies akin to the globalization of the arms trade and increasing accessibility to military hardware (Pearson 1994). Arms imports become a burden when they, like military spending budgets, crowd out more what are potentially more development-oriented goods. Such consideration is reminiscent of classic "guns versus butter" questions in development economics.

Although detailed budgetary data are not available for a sufficient number of less industrialized countries to provide systematic analysis findings here with regard to military spending and arms imports hint that such a tradeoff exists and is detrimental to food security in these societies.

131 Next I consider the internal dynamics of the military institution, finding that military instability has a negative impact on dietary energy supply. Even though a large military participation ratio positively benefits development, there is the potential for problems if the institution is not reliable or loyal to the state or reliable and a coup or other form of breakdown occurs. The military historically has had a very influential role in state formation (Downing

1992) and in less industrialized societies, many of which are newly-independent, recent history has shown this to be the case as well. Therefore, military instability is most likely indicative of a weak state that is not likely to have the institutional capacity to adequately address all of its development needs.

Also akin to the internal dynamics of the military is the prevalence of military repression. As Table 4.8 indicates this term is not significant unless controlling for economic growth. This indicates that repression does not appear to be a factor unless one differentiates between varied levels of economic growth. Paralleling other military famine findings, military- repressive societies would be less likely to have the same human-development related priorities as non-repressive regimes. Therefore policy pertaining to improving basic human needs (and

therefore food security) may be less likely pursued in an environment in which the military is

free to repress its citizenry.'*

As with the women in development models, the military famine equations were identical

to those for change in dietary energy supply. In this regard, "famine" that hits not only inhibits

'* Interestingly enough, however, tests for democratization, human rights violations, and military regimes do not have significant effects indicating that the detrimental impacts of military repression are rooted more in the military famine component of food insecurity and not general political context (democracy versus authoritarianism for example, or military versus civilian regimes) in which the military institution operates.

132 the amount of food that is available but also the type and quality of that food available. Thus, crowding out by military spending means or arms transfers perhaps means that less protein-rich food is readily available. Interestingly enough once again, however, is that the military participation ratio improves food security, and therefore is not a "famine" measure at all.

Finally with regard to the theoretical models predicting change in dietary energy supply there are ethnic antagonisms perspectives to consider. As Table 4.9 indicates, ethnic heterogeneity in a society as indicated by a large percentage of the population coming from diverse groups is detrimental to change in dietary energy supply. Similar to breakdown associated with military instability, it may that ethnic heterogeneity may also be evidence of a weak state, or at least a hindrance to development that limits food security. As evidence of this, ethnic heterogeneity is strongly correlated with military instability (r=.46). It will remain to be seen in the combination models for caloric change discussed below as to whether modernization or integrative components in society such as military participation can dampen the effects of ethnic diversity.

As Equation 4 reveals, ethnic antagonisms perspectives predict change in protein availability in the same fashion as with the dietary energy supply equations. Thus, once again, it appears that protein and dietary energy supply are more proximate to each other as in the women and development and military famine models noted above.

The combination models. 4.10 contains a sequence of equations in which determinants from the above perspectives are tested so as to formulate a combined model that accounts for the multiple theoretical contributions to explaining change in dietary energy supply. The last two equations of the sequence include the addition of measures for globalization and economic

133 growth so as to determine the extent to which prior measures are associated with these processes.

Variables that are significant in theory equations but not included below are important though less proximate to predicting change in dietary energy supply than those included in these equations.'®

Equation 1 contains human capital formation in the form of the secondary enrollment

ratio which as before is positive and significant net of the lagged caloric term. Development

level is not significant, however, indicating here as in many of the theoretical models that

questions of dietary energy supply are more complex than just considering modernization and

associated level of development. Equation 2 includes the significant negative effect of export

dependency while Equation 3 includes the disparity and dualism terms, the former of which

indicative of the importance of urbanization on change in dietary energy supply. Equation 4

indicates the positive significance of infrastructural development akin to techno-ecology theory

while Equation 6 reveals that the arms import burden and ethnic heterogeneity remain important

negative predictors. As Equation 5 shows, however, arms imports is significant in the combined

models only after removing the export dependency term from the equation. Thus, export

dependency and arms imports share enough common variance so as to not work simultaneously

in the combined equations. The two terms are moderately correlated (r=.26) and certainly

theoretically linked in that less industrialized societies that are dependent on exporting a few

'®The combined equation contains significant variables from the above models that are the most meaningful theoretically in addition to having enough data coverage so as to not overwhelmingly reduce the number of cases. Unfortunately, some measures as I have discussed above, are important though too limited in availability to include in the combined model sequence. For example, the prevalence of absolute poverty which is consistently negative and significant is one such predictor, as is growth in domestic investment that is important to modernization theory and the decapitalization term in dependency theory.

134 primary products are exchanging these for arms in the global marketplace, hence the detrimental impacts on change in dietary energy and protein supply.

Lastly, Equations 7 and 8 add the food import ratio measure indicative of globalization and economic growth respectively. In Equation 7 the effects of human capital formation and rural-urban disparity disappear indicating that urbanization patterns and modernization have links that are mediated by globalization processes. In the final equation, ethnic heterogeneity is no longer significant In this instance, growing economies are able to overcome the "burden" of diversity indicating its ability to explain away the heterogeneity effects. The final equations reveal that the most proximate predictors of dietary energy supply change are techno-ecology theory, military famine, and globalization, each of which reflect the importance of macro- structural processes of change with regard to the dynamics of food security in contemporary world societies.

The models for protein availability change are identical to those for dietary energy supply with the exception of variables failing to indicate significance noted above with regard to the individual theoretical models. That is, rural-urban disparity and export dependency, for example are not as proximate to protein availability change as dietary energy supply more generally. Equation 9 in Table 4.10 present the final model for the examination of protein availability. I now turn to overall discussion of food availability considerations for food security.

Discussion

From the above findings it should be clear that numerous explanations are important for explaining the dynamics of food availability in less industrialized societies. No single concept

135 can adequately account for the complexities of this component of food security therefore necessitating the multiple-perspective approach and in the remainder of this chapter I expand on some of the more interesting components of these findings, including potential sources of integration and synthesis of these perspectives with regard to food availability.

What should be clear at the outset is that food availability stems from more than considering just simple economic development level. Although important in the base equation, this most basic measure of modernization, which I also use as a control in each of the equations, is consistently washed out by other terms that explain away its effects. In this regard providing an adequate supply of food for hungry populations involves more than simply "getting modem" but instead demands an integrative process of high-tech industrialization and an expansion of the industrial labor force, human capital formation in the form of increased education, and introduction of modem irrigation systems all of which contribute to food availability change.

Furthermore, given its vital place in the combined equation, human capital formation is the most proximate of these measures.

Parallel arguments could also be made regarding economic growth in less industrialized societies as well. Although economic expansion is certainly important to development and modemization, as with economic development level the effects of economic growth are also captured by other predictors that contribute not only to improved food security specifically, growth more generally. This is important in that in the past studies have primarily focused upon economic growth as the dependent variable. By using it as a predictor of food security this analysis shows that there is some "trickle down" from economic growth to human development needs either independently by mediating some of the other effects, or in having its influence

136 explained away by other effects. As with economic development level, growth should therefore not be considered apart from other processes which both contribute to it, as well as the food security dependent variables of interest.

From this discussion, then, it should be clear that improvement in food availability is more than simply "getting modem" in that other factors have a role as well. It is in this regard in which it is important to consider overlap and potential synthesis of the various perspectives examined here. For example, consider the neo-Malthusian and women in development perspectives that did not have measures "survive" into the final equation. These two perspectives are linked in that increasing the status and power of women in less industrialized societies through education and participation in the non-traditional roles are not only improves women's well-being but also lowers fertility. At the same time, these simultaneous processes are also indicative of other patterns of social change including modemization, socio-cultural evolution, or urbanization, for example. Thus, it is not as if decreasing fertility rates or empowering women are not unimportant in and of themselves with regard to improved food availability, but these need to be linked to other macro-structural processes of which they are a part.

The same could be said regarding links between techno-ecology theory and modemization. Socio-cultural evolution in addition to diffusion and adaptive processes certainly parallel modemization. It is in understanding the ecological heritage and population context of developing nations that one can better grasp when and where development is more likely to occur. An expanded agricultural labor force, the intensification of agriculture and application of

Green Revolution technologies are certainly indicative of the agricultural revolution and eventual

137 industrialization. In this regard, improvement in food availability results when the forces of technological innovation and evolution are coupled with modemization so as to become complementary nearly inseparable processes.

Another example of links between theories is the consideration of the impacts of ethnic heterogeneity on food availability as espoused by an ethnic antagonisms point of view.

Although the analysis thus far has not found effects from ethnic competition, political

discrimination, or the presence of geno-politicide, it does appear that an ethnically diverse

population challenges a country's ability to provide food security. It is possible, however, that

the problems of diversity are akin to increased patterns of urbanization that bring multiple ethnic

groups into the growing cities or the failure of modemization to fully integrate different groups.

This latter scenario is certainly a possibility given that the ethnic heterogeneity effects are

mediated by economic growth in the combined equation. It does not even have to be the case

that full-blown ethnic conflict is occurring but instead its simple presence may be enough to be a

drag on the economy. In this regard it is important to consider what modemization theory claims

about ethnic conflict or how antagonisms arising from ethnic interaction fit into other

perspectives.

Whereas the discussion thus far has focused on improvement in food security, the

findings in this analysis also reveal that numerous factors have negative impacts on food

availability in less industrialized societies and it is to these that I now turn. Of most interest in

this realm are the negative impacts of militarization and dependency on food availability.

Dependency theory finds support in that agricultural inequality, concentration in exports of a few

primary products and decapitalization have negative impacts on food availability improvement.

138 Foreign capital penetration is a little less clear, with foreign investment having a relatively less effect than would come from domestic investment, an effect which is mediated by economic growth. The dependency measures do not fare well in the combined equation for the food availability terms, however, indicating less proximity to the food security dynamic.

Furthermore, the globalization measure of food import dependency is a strong, positive predictor of dietary energy and protein supply a finding that is contrary to the expectations of this perspective.

Militarization effects are more clear with burdens from military spending and arms imports detrimental to improving food supply while internal dynamics of the military institution in the form of repression and unreliability having negative impacts. Militarization is therefore an important consideration for its internal institutional roles as well as its external links to the global arms trade. Food availability has clear links to militarization processes indicating that although this analysis does not directly test such inquiries, long-debated questions of guns versus butter continue to have relevance. However, the military famine perspective does not find total support, for the impact of military participation is to improve food security thus revealing a human capital formation component of militarization akin to modemization theory. In addition, an interesting non-effect in the analysis is the insignificance of military regimes meaning that praetorianism cannot assumed to be detrimental to caloric or protein availability. These "non- findings" may also be due to the fact that neither modemization nor dependency theories entirely disagree with the basic premise of the military famine perspective in that war or unchecked military power or repression are likely to benefit human well-being.

139 Next, though discussed in a couple of different contexts above, urbanization perspectives demand a more careful attention. Despite reservations noted above with regard to Bradshaw's

(1987) rural-urban disparity measure, the term is consistently negative and significant until washed out by food import dependency. This would lend support to more critical perspectives on urbanization that emphasize rural-urban disarticulation as a negative consequence of globalization and modemization. The same is true for the negative impact of the dualism term in theoretical equation before it is washed out by economic growth. However, given the tenuousness of adequately capturing this concept, as with numerous other measures it is not certain that urban bias more is a theory on its own or instead is something encompassed in modemization or dependency perspectives. Significant findings would seem to indicate thus far that it leans more toward the latter of these two, but considering the numerous non-effects in this analysis such as subsistence agriculture and mral-urban migration having no impact on dietary energy and protein supply makes it more difficult to state a clear case for this. Furthermore, side analysis attempting to clearly link dependency to urban bias and vice versa did not support

claims that disarticulation and its negative effects on food security are due to urban bias

indicating that further examination of these theories and different food security impacts are

imperative.

With regard to the equations combining the various theoretical perspectives it appears

that in&astructural development and access to global food markets have the most proximate

positive effects on food availability improvement while ethnic heterogeneity and the arms import

burden have the most proximate negative effects. Discussion of development and social change

thus no longer can be reduced to a simple debate between modemization and dependency

140 perspectives but instead incorporate the dynamics of globalization, the influence of techno- ecological considerations, and the contributions of military famine and ethnic antagonisms perspectives among others that have increasing relevance to explaining hunger.

This chapter has shown that food availability in the form of caloric and protein supply per capita has numerous determinants and sorting these out is a complex process. Taken separately, each perspective has its own contribution to make, but when considered

simultaneously in multi-variate models their effects can be explained away by links to other

theories that are more proximate to the food security dynamic. Examining food availability in

less industrialized countries is the first, and most basic means of examining food security but by

no means should be the last, for food supply by no means guarantees equitable distribution or

access among the world's citizenry and it is to this question I now turn.

141 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 b b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy .38“ .34“ 2 8 ‘ supply, circa 1970 (2.53) (2.04) (1.84)

Protein supply, circa .67*“ .59“ * 1970 (7.17) (5.80)

Economic 197.57“ 151.60“ * 171.14*“ 4.82*** 3.90*“ development level (4.11) (2.96) (3.64) (3.81) (2.96)

Economic growth 116.78“ 304.60“ * 2.99* 7.64*** (2.05) (3.55) (1.80) (2.87)

Food import ratio 1021“ 8.28** .31*“ growth (2.62) (2.31) (2.84)

Trade openness 4.36“ 2.19 .03 • growth (223) (1.16) (.45)

Constant 649.90 2934.38 16.39 57.94

Number of cases 79 61 61 79 61

F-value 18.17 10.13 12.29 35.30 15.70 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .40 .38 .48 .57 .55

*‘significant at p=.05, two tails ‘ “ significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.1: Base Model and Lagged Panel Regression of Globalization Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

142 Model I Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 b b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy ^^♦♦^ .35^^ •33^^ .33^^ supply, circa 1970 (2.79) (2.42) (2.35) (2.29)

Protein supply, circa .65^^^ 1970 (5.94)

Economic 123.09^^ 73.04 75.26 75.56 1.78 development level (2.03) (1.24) (1.32) (124) (.94)

Economic growth .87 .13 (.02) (.07)

Growth in irrigated 23.15^^ 12.98^ 15.12 15.11 land (2.075) (1.69) (1.46) (1.44)

Growth human capital 9.23^^ 12^** 4.85 4.85 .17 formation (2.65) (2.19) (1.41) (1.39) (1.53)

Industrialization 12.98^^^ 12.49^^^ 12.48^^^ 22 growth (3.11) (3.07) (2.97) (1.63) Arms production 154.4P 154.46^ 4.53^ capacity (1.99) (1.97) (1.802) (producers=l)

Constant 567.14 12.98 876.73 882.50 5.58

Number of cases 62 62 62 62 62

F-value 12.95 13.87 12.83 10.80 12.08 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .38 .51 .54 .53 .56 ^significant at p=.10, two tails ♦•significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4JZ: Lagged Panel Regression of Modemization Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

143 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 b b b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy .16 .12 26‘ ‘ 29‘ 27** supply, circa 1970 (.96) (.76) (2.02) (1.89) (2.04)

Protein supply, j 9 ‘ “ circa 1970 (6.01)

Economic 123.32‘ ‘ 125.53“ 221.76‘ “ 178.84‘“ 212.44“ ♦ 529*** development level (2.30) (2.57) (5.01) (3.34) (4.63) (3.90)

Economic growth 307.65“ ♦ (2.85)

Export dependency -453.64‘ “ -33327“ -261.02‘ -490.76“ -353.66‘ -521 growth (-2.91) (-225) (-1.69) (-229) (-1.79) (-1.00)

Level of foreign -72.62“ -40.59 -129.87‘ ‘ -4.69‘ “ capital penetration (-223) (-128) (-2.64) (-2.76)

Agricultural -.10“ -.06‘ inequality growth (-2.62) (-1.70)

Growth in 20.71 “ ♦ 20.55‘ “ .60“ ♦ domestic (4.23) (4.04) (3.66) investment

Decapitalization -6.24‘ -6.89‘ -27** (-1.87) (-1.98) (-2.351)

Level of foreign -424‘ -.57 capital penetration (-1.90) (-27) in agriculture

Constant 1670.19 386524 742.54 716.45 76528 2.61

Number of cases 41 41 52 50 50 52

F-value 9.54 10.93 12.94 8.98 10.45 16.06 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj.R* .62 .60 .58 .39 .57 .64 *signifîcant at p=.10, two tails ‘ •significant at p=.05, two tails “ ♦significant at p=.OI or greater, two tails

Table 4J: Lagged Panel Regression of Dependency Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

144 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy .38* 21 supply, circa 1970 (1.95) (1.59)

Protein supply, circa .65*** .60*** 1970 (4.84) (4.89)

Economic 78.53 102.91* 1.44 1.90 development level (1.19) (1.75) (.77) (1.10)

Economic growth 333.40*** 9.02*** (3.71) (3215)

Economic .76 1.70 .03 .05 disarticulation (.32) (.82) (40) (.811)

Dualism heritage -37.83* -28.39 -.93 -.65 (-1.88) (-1.59) (-1.51) (-1.14)

Growth in rural-urban -23.94" -23.84** -.62* -.60* disparity (-2.05) (-2.32) (-1.71) (-1.81)

Constant 1265.16 3687.77 17.52 80.78

Number of cases 50 50 50 50

F-value 6.19 8.94 8.61 10.42 (F-prob.) (.0002) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: 35 .49 .44 .54 'significant at p=. 10, two tails "significant at p=.05, two tails •"significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.4: Lagged Panel Regression of Urbanization Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

145 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy .4 6 '" .5 1 '" .4 8 " ' supply, circa 1970 (2.92). (3.27) (3.07)

Protein supply, circa .7 3 '" 1970 (7.41)

Economic 123.03" 101.89' 118.47" 3.27" development level (229) (1.92) (2.19) (222)

Economic growth 68.45 2.14 (1.16) (123) Age dependency -584.62" -128.43 growth (-2.50) (-.418)

Fertility growth -95.07" -9 7 2 8 '" -1.54 (-2.21) (-2.97) (-1.57)

Constant 599.64 552.59 1029.80 13.48

Number of cases 71 71 71 71

F-value 16.80 14.54 15.09 26.33 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .40 .44 .45 .59 'significant at p=.10, two tails "significant at p=.05, two tails "'significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.5: Lagged Panel Regression of Neo-Malthusian Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

146 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy /#♦♦♦ supply, circa 1970 (2.93) (2.86)

Protein supply, circa ,1\*** 1970 (7.25)

Economic 17.84 25.55 -.01 development level (.33) (.47) (-.004)

Economic growth 72.71 1.99 (.82) (.68)

Techno-ecological heritage 211.H *** 200.02^^ 5.31^ (industriaiizing- (3.01) (2.41) (1.957) agrarian =1)

Agricultural density 3.29^^ 3.36^^ .09^ growth (2.33) (2.37) (1.92)

Agricultural labor -I0.84^^ -10.69^^ -23 force growth (-2.49) (-2.44) (-1.63)

Intensification of .16^ • 16^ .004 agriculture (1.97) (2.00) (1.60)

Diffusion of Green .004^^ Revolution (3.32) (3.12) (2.39)

Infrastructural 3.80^^ 3.58^^ .10^ development ■ (2.57) (2.36) (1.97)

Constant 823.91 1354.09 22.15

Number of cases 45 45 45

F-value 15.00 13.29 11.73 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj.R' .72 .72 .69 *signifîcant at p=.10, two tails ♦♦significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.6: Lagged Panel Regression of Techno-Ecological Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

147 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy .81“ * .80*** supply, circa 1970 (4.08) (4.08)

Protein supply, circa .92*** 1970 (6.41)

Economic -38.67 -2.37 -.84 development level (-.63) (-.04) (-.42)

Economic growth 146.82 4.12 (1.39) (1.34)

Growth in women's 4.76 6.12* .16* human capital (1.50) (1.87) (1.77) development

Gender-related 2670.71*** 2154.51** 76.10*** development index (3.32) (2.46) (2.97) growth

Constant 302.72 1253.87 26.63

Number of cases 38 38 38

F-value 11.78 10.08 14.39 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .54 .55 .64 *significant at p=.10, two tails ‘ ♦significant at p=.05, two tails «««significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.7: Lagged Panel Regression of Women in Development Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

148 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy ,31^^ 22 supply, circa 1970 (223) (1.59)

Protein supply, circa .58^^^ 1970 (6.583)

Economic 158.33^^^ -180.94^^^ 3.56^^^ development level (3.41) (4.01) (3.04)

Economic growth 138.38^^^ 320^^ (2.73) (2.10)

Military spending -1473.80^^^ -1805.66^^^ -3023^ burden growth (-2.63) (-3.29) (-1.89)

Growth in military 5.95^^^ 1.29*** .16^^ participation ratio (2.89) (3.60) (2.58)

Arms import burden -I.IS^*^ -.87^^ -.03^^ growth (-3.18) (-2.44) (-2.58)

Military instability -66.55*** -68.4P^^ -\.91*** (-2.82) (-3.04) (-2.80)

Military repression -90.93 -109.73 ♦ -3.42^ (-1.44) (-1.81) (-1.86)

Constant 951.80 2036.99 34.94

Number of cases 74 74 74

F-value 14.86 15.20 22.11 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .57 .61 .70 ♦significant at p=. 10, two tails ♦♦significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.8: Lagged Panel Regression of Military Famine Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

149 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy .44*" .39*** supply, circal970 (3.097) (2.74)

Protein supply, circa .61*** 1970 (6.66)

Economic 151.13*** 166.14*** 422*** development level (3.24) (3.52) (3.45)

Economic growth 87.60 2.30 (1.58) (1.44)

Ethnic heterogeneity -4.43*** -4.02*** -.13*** (-3.169) (-2.85) (-2.97)

Constant 72121 1357.50 23.02

Number of cases 79 79 79

F-value 21.35 16.96 31.42 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R* .44 .45 ,61 'significant at p=.10, two tails "significant at p=.05, two tails «** significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.9: Lagged Panel Regression of Ethnic Antagonism Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

150 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 b b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy .40“ .35** .33** .42*** .41*** supply, circa 1970 (2.314) (223) (2.19) (2.89) . (2.87)

Economic 50.02 15.42 423 1326 1622 development level (.80) (21) (.08) (25) (.31)

Human capital 11.90‘ “ 11.79*** 10.49*** 8.63*** 8.29** formation growth (3.64) (3.63) (323) (2.77) (2.68)

Export dependency -740.93*** -645.53*** -41520* -315.52 growth (-3.52) (3.05) (-1.92) (-1.40)

Dualism -21.04 -16.58 -14.88 (-1.36) (-1.14) (-1.03)

Rural-urban disparity -17.74* -16.39* -15.27 growth (-1.77) (-1.75) (-1.64)

Infirastructural 4.59** 4.48** development (2.653) (2.62)

Arms import burden -.86 growth (-1.40)

Constant 1003.34 1266.26 1507.75 1151.90 1182.09

Number of cases 49 49 49 49 49

F-value 8.84 11.41 8.68 9.52 8.77 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj.R^ .33 .46 .49 .55 .56 ^significant at p=. 10, two tails *‘significant at p=.05, two tails ••♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.10: Lagged Panel Regression of Multiple Theoretical Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita.

151 Model 6 Model 7 Model 8 Model 9 b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Dietary energy supply. •40^^^ 38^^^ circa 1970 (2.76) (2.97) (2.83)

Protein supply, circa .55^^^ 1970 (4.52)

Economic development 7.44 12.77 31.42 .67 level (.14) (.26) (.59) (.39) Economic growth 78.52 .15 (.84) (.05)

Human capital 6.96^^ 431 3.31 .12 formation growth (2.29) (1.43) (1.02) (1.14) Dualism -15.65 -21.87 -20.70 -.39 (-1.10) (-1.63) (-1.53) (-.87)

Rural-urban disparity -18.68^^ -14.01 -13.82 -34 growth (-2.01) (-1.59) (-1.56) (-.83)

Infrastructural 4.68^^^ 3.45^^ 3.12^ .06 development (2.89) (2.19) (1.91) (1.13) Arms import burden -2.74^ -I.IO^^ -1.03^ -.04^^ growth (-1.72) (-2.05) (-1.90) (-2.06)

Ethnic heterogeneity -1.17^^ -2.69^ -2.35 -.09 (-2.02) (-1.82) (-1.52) (-1.60)

Food import 9.9P^^ 10.23^^^ 3 2 " dependency growth (2.67) (2.73) (2.52)

Constant 1443.79 1444.51 1951.06 26.75

Number of cases 49 49 49 49

F-value 9.10 10.12 9.11 8.85 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj.R* .57 .63 .63 .62 *signifîcant at p=.10, two tails ♦•significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 4.10: Lagged Panel Regression of Multiple Theoretical Determinants of Change in Dietary Energy and Protein Supply per Capita (continued).

152 CHAPTERS

FOOD DISTRIBUTION AND HUNGER IN THE TOTAL POPULATION

Introduction

In this chapter I examine the determinants of change in hunger in the total population.

This measure captures the proportion of people in the population of a country whose daily dietary energy intake falls below the minimum daily requirement as computed by the Food and

Agriculture Organization (FAG) of the United Nations (1996). This is a logical extension to dietary energy supply data examined above in that the FAG uses availability data for each country to compute this measure. By capturing the proportion of the population failing to meet daily nutritional requirements it is will serve as a good measure of hunger in the total population, or the relative inadequacy of the food supply.

In this regard, this measure is an important step in beginning to examine problems in distribution that are essential to food security concerns. Food availability is an important consideration but does not provide an adequate snapshot of the entire hunger dynamic.

Therefore, here and in the following chapter I examine the stratification component of food

security that considers problems of inequality and access to existing supplies. It is only in

153 extending studies of availability to this next level that a more clear and accurate understanding of the complexities of food security in less industrialized societies can be reached.

Findings

The theoretical models. Tables 5.1 through 5.10 report the results for lagged panel

regression of the determinants of hunger in the total population from circa 1970 to circa 1990."

I begin with a simple base model with controls for the lagged level of hunger in the total

population, the level of economic development, and economic growth. As with the availability

models I then test each theoretical perspective net of each control with the exception of

economic growth, which I examine at the end of the equation sequence to determine which of the

independent variables may be working through growth. This will serve as an additional test as to

whether there is a "trickle down" effect from economic growth to improve general human well­

being.

The sample consists of less-industrialized countries with a population of 1 million or

more in 1970. I use an ordinary least squares lagged panel design to determine the effects of

independent variables net of the dependent variable at an earlier point in time. I once again

utilize standard procedures to ensure robustness of my models, checking for heteroskedasticity

" Note that in this portion of the analysis I am examining a negative attribute of food security unlike food availability which was positive. That is, increases in this dependent variable indicated by a positive sign in the regression table indicate a decline in food security, while negative signs indicate improvement. Thus, I speak of hunger in this chapter so as to remind the reader that reduction is the goal unlike with supply, where increases are desired.

154 and influential cases and with the latter of these indicating minimal problems." Because of missing data, the final models in the analysis contain 44 cases."

Table 5.1 reports includes the base model (Equation 1) for the determinants of hunger in the total population as well as the measures for globalization. As before with dietary energy and protein supply per capita the base equation presents no surprises, with the lagged level of hunger significant and positive with development level and economic growth significantly decreasing child hunger. In addition, this model also contains a measure for change in dietary energy supply per capita as a control for food supply change between 1970 and 1990. Controlling for this will strengthen the remaining models in that declines in hunger among the total population can be attributed to simply increasing food supply, but instead links to other factors. In addition, it provides an important test as to whether food supply growth has any bearing on the access component of food security, which as can be seen below is important to the combined equations as well as to each of the theoretical modeling sequences with the exception of those for the

urbanization perspectives.

" Ghana, Liberia, Niger, Sri Lanka, and South Korea all appear as outliers. None are influential with the exception of South Korea which is driving the negative effects of export dependency in the final equation of the combined model. That is, removing this case reduces the effects of this measure to just below significance at the p=.10 level. Thus, one should interpret the effects of this variable with caution.

" The sample for models examining hunger in the total population includes Algeria, Argentina, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Burma, Cameroon, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Mexico, Nicaragua, Niger, Nepal, Pakistan, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, Tunisia, Uganda, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.

155 Continuing with Table 5.1, Equations 2 and 3 reveal that globalization is a factor with regard to hunger in the total population as with food availability. However, here trade openness is the measure of importance, significantly reducing hunger in the total population while change in food import dependency is not significant. Because food imports significantly improved food supply, but not the situation of hunger suggests a problem with regard to the distribution of imported foodstuffs in that it is likely that those countries able to afford increasing imports cannot guarantee that the increase in supply trickles down to the neediest segments of the population and therefore fails to reduce hunger. It is interesting, though, that general openness to global markets significantly reduces hunger, perhaps due to imports of agricultural technologies, transportation improvements, or other factors which have as much to do with modemization and techno-ecological adaptation as they do with globalization. This will merit further discussion in the combined models I consider below.

Table 5.2 indicates results for modemization predictors of hunger in the total population, with findings again differing slightly from those for food availability. Industrialization growth is once again significant (Equation 1) as is the presence of high-tech industry as indicated by arms production capacity (Equation 2). Thus, entry into the modem economy and movement beyond an agrarian-based system not only improves food supply but reduces hunger as well. In addition, growth in democratization decreases hunger in the total population as Equation 3 presents, while also explaining away the effect of industrialization. The rational order established by democratic systems of government thus appear more likely to emphasize the distributive component of food security in that increasing democracy indicates increasing fairness and therefore greater access to food available for those in need. Given that this measure was not significant in the food

156 availability models it follows that although democracies do not necessarily outperform non- democratic states with regard to increasing food supply, they simply ensure that fewer people fail to meet their nutritional needs. However, this term is washed out by the addition of economic growth in Equation 4, meaning that its effects are at least in part working through the expanding economy, so its contributions are not entirely political.

Moving to Table 5.3, there is once again evidence from the dependency perspective that export dependency and agricultural inequality are harmful to food securityFrom this point of view, export dependency may increase hunger in the total population in that crops formerly

produced for local consumption have been replace by cash-crops for export. Another

explanation could be that akin to the prevalence of agricultural inequality which would note how

persons are no longer working their own land but instead have shifted to wage labor in new

factories or commercial agriculture plots which does not enable them to afford what some

believe to be the inflated prices of imported food. Despite these findings, the dependency

perspective is not without question, however. For example, foreign capital penetration is not

significant, either in the general form reported in Table 5.3, nor the agriculture-specific measure

considered with regard to food availability. In addition, neither decapitalization nor distorted

growth are significant, further questioning die external, world-systemic component of inequality

important to the dependency perspective.

“ The prevalence of absolute poverty was once again a significantly strong predictor of food security, in this case increasing the level of hunger in the total population. However, with models having no more than 29 cases, I am hesitant to pursue these findings in any great fashion other than to briefly report them, and save for future analyses with improved data with more coverage.

157 Table 5.4 reports findings related to urbanization perspectives, which again provide an interesting extension of the modemization and dependency models noted above, in addition to exhibiting several differences from the availability models. In Equation 1, the presence of economic disarticulation between rural and urban environment increases hunger in the total population, though this is mediated by economic growth (Equation 2) which significantly improves the hunger situation. Thus, not only are more persons in the population experiencing undernourishment, it is likely that rural populations are suffering more than those in urban environments. Thus, a more critical perspective on urbanization would therefore note the parallels between this finding and that for agricultural inequality discussed above. Further supporting this more critical perspective, growth in agricultural productivity that moves away

from subsistence-based farming increases hunger in the general population, which would be

contrary to modemization perspectives on urbanization and development. In addition, rural-

urban disparity also increases hunger in the total population as in the availability equation,

though the dualism term is not significant Further checking of the rural-urban migration rate,

growth in plantation agriculture, and increased production in cash crops each fail to show

significance in a direction supporting either dependency or modernization perspectives. Thus, if

individuals are moving to cities in search of improved quality of life in the form of reduced

hunger, it is not clear from this set of equations that this is the case. From these results it is clear

that urban bias may in fact exist but whether this is due to modemization or dependency links is

unclear. As with the food availability models there is simply no evidence that dependency

causes these problems in less industrialized societies.

158 Moving next to the neo-Malthusian equations reported in Table 5.5, there is once again basic support for the importance of examining population pressure as a source of food insecurity.

As with the food availability models, growth in fertility is the best form of predictor for this perspective washing out effects of either the age dependency ratio or the rural population growth rate (Equations 1 and 2) which significantly increase hunger in the general population in simple equations controlling only for the lagged term, development level, and caloric change. However, fertility's effects are mediated through economic growth (Equation 3) which washes out its effects. Thus, although an important consideration with regard to hunger, population pressure is difficult to separate from economic growth, though this did not prove to be the case in the availability models.

Table 5.6 presents findings relative to the techno-ecological perspective and its limited contributions to explaining change in hunger among the general population. This is in striking contrast to the examination of food availability in which a number of techno-ecological factors contributed to explaining food security. Only the dummy variable for techno-ecological heritage is significant, with industrializing-agrarian societies significantly better off than industrializing horticultural societies with regard to reduction in hunger in the total population.

Techno-ecology theory thus appears to be much more suitable for explaining food availability change and increase in supply as a response to growing human adaptation needs than it is for offering solutions for improving the distribution and access.

This may not be entirely surprising, though one would at least expect infrastructural development in the form of the prevalence of roads to be a significant factor, but this is not the case. In addition, these findings do not bode well for the implementation and expansion of

159 Green Revolution technologies in that although it may be true that such application improved dietary energy supply, this does not appear to spillover into improve food distribution that would

reduce hunger. In this regard, the diffusion of technology appears to have limited benefit to the

masses who are likely to be in greatest need of the improvements it brought to less industrialized

societies.

Next I move to consideration of a women in development perspective on hunger in the

total population as Table 5.7 presents. As with food availability, findings indicate that the

gender-related development index significantly improves food security while other women in

development measures have no effect This term is washed out by economic growth in Equation

2. Once again, findings with regard to women in development provide some evidence of the

important food security role that women have. Educated and employed women who experience

the benefits of development relatively well compared to men in less industrialized societies are

good for overall development well-being, in addition to an environment that encourages more

equitable distribution of social goods in these societies.

Turning to the military famine perspective reported in Table 5.8 there is additional

parallelism with the food availability models in that the arms import burden negatively impacts

hunger in the total population just as it did general food supply. However, findings on other

terms surprisingly indicate that no other factors are contributing to food security decline in the

form of increased hunger. As shown in the equations, the military spending burden, military

participation ratio, and civil wars are not significant. In addition in models not shown, military

repression, military regimes, and military instability also do not affect hunger in the total

population.

160 Curious of these findings and given the strong links between military famine perspectives, I decide to perform further analysis after removing the control variable for change in dietary energy supply. As Equation 3 reveals, removing this term reveals significant and positive effects of military spending and military instability and a negative effect of the military participation ratio thus more closely paralleling the food availability models. Change in dietary energy supply thus washes out these terms, which should not be surprising given that military famine is such a strong predictor of food supply.^' That is, their effects are mediated through their impact on dietary energy supply.

Lastly with regard to the theoretical models. Table 5.9 presents findings for ethnic antagonisms perspectives on hunger in the total population. As Equations 1 and 2 reveal, ethnicity does not appear to have any effects on the distributive component of food security with

the ethnic competition ratio and intensity of ethnic political discrimination reported having no

effects. However, as with the military famine models, removing change in dietary energy supply

(Equation 3) from the equation reveals that ethnic competition is an important consideration in

that it increases hunger in the total population. Similar to the ethnic heterogeneity effects in the

food availability models, ethnic competition between the two largest groups in society which are

also close in size is detrimental to food security.

Curious as to whether the same is true in other theoretical models, particularly the techno-ecological considerations that were strong in the availability models, I perform new analyses removing the caloric growth term. However, with the exception of the ethnic antagonisms findings I discuss below, results remain the same, indicating that change in dietary energy supply must be more proximate to the military famine and ethnicity items than to the other theoretical components.

161 Table 5.10 reports findings for the combined sequence of equations for hunger in the total population. As in the food availability equations, the last two equations of the sequence include the addition of measures for globalization and economic growth so as to determine the extent to which prior measures are associated with these macro-structural processes. And once again, signifîcant predictors from the theory equations that are not included in the combined models are less proximate to explaining hunger in the total population, but remain important for their theoretical contributions.

Equation I indicates that change in democratization significantly reduces hunger in the total population net of economic development level, growth in dietary energy supply, and the

lagged term for hunger in 1970. Equality associated with democracies remains an important contributor to food security, remaining significant throughout the sequence of combined models with the exception of the addition of growth in Equation 5 which mediates its effects.

Adding export dependency in Equation 2 reveals that it is significant and positive,

contributing to increased hunger. Therefore, the dependency perspective remains an important

consideration with regard to hunger in the total population Furthermore, the addition of measures

for urbanization perspectives in Equation 3 indicate that economic disarticulation, rural-urban

disparity, and movement from subsistence agriculture all increase hunger. These measures

capture important differences between rural and urban environments and the distribution of food

that is available in less industrialized societies. In this regard it is likely that hunger is

disproportionately associated with rural populations, which is ironic given the predominance of

agriculture and food production in such regions. What is not clear regarding this dynamic,

however, is whether rural-urban inequality is due to "urban bias" associated with policies made

162 by urban elites favor cities or the fact that rural life in less industrialized is more challenging than urban living where opportunities are better. Furthermore, it is not necessarily the case that these differences are due to dependency either, for as with the availability measures there is little association between the urbanization and dependency terms. Data that enable this consideration to be clearly captured are not available for this analysis and will have to be explored in future analyses.

In Equation 4 the significance of the arms import burden net of each of the other predictors indicates that this too remains an important consideration. As with food availability, the burden of arms transfers on less industrialized societies is too much for strapped economies to handle with regard to human well-being. Although neither the trade openness or the food import measures indicative of globalization significantly improve food security as with the availability model, arms imports essentially capture the same process in that increasing availability of arms and growing militarization has been an important pattern of globalization in the last few decades. Furthermore, given that it is important to both supply and now distribution, this component of military famine has great relevance to the question of food security in less industrialized societies that merits further discussion.

The last model (Equation 6) in Table 5.10 removes the control for change in dietary energy supply and adds the military participation ration and military spending burden which again have opposite effects with regard to food security, the latter of which increasing hunger in the total population.^ In addition, these factors wash out the effect of export dependency.

“ Military instability, which was significant in Equation 3 of Table 5.8 after removing the growth in dietary energy supply is not significant in the combined equation.

163 meaning that those countries tied up in concentrating on a few primary products are also militarizing states. As with the availability models, the military participation ratio is much more appropriately deemed a modernization term in that its effects are more human-capital related than military famine related, though military spending is. Also with regard to Equation 6, the ethnic competition term is significant, indicating that it increases hunger in the general population. Furthermore, because this is net of the inclusion of modernization and ethnic growth terms ethnic antagonisms in this case are not a simple phenomenon that disappear with modernization and development but instead hinder these processes. By being significant in this combined model it is clear that stratification between ethnic groups in less industrialized societies is an essential component of food security and the distribution patterns associated with human well-being in these societies.

Lastly with regard to the combined models for hunger in the total population, it is once again interesting to note that neo-Malthusian arguments regarding population pressure have little relevance to explaining food security when considered in the context of other theoretical perspectives. This indicates that food security is more than simple consideration of population

growth but instead a economic and political phenomenon as well as the socio-demographic.

Thus, population pressure is important for its links to economic growth, modernization, and

disparity between rural and urban populations each of which mediate its effects.

In addition, globalization is also not a factor with regard to hunger in the total

population, with effects being tied to economic growth and modernization perspectives. Thus,

although important to questions of food availability, increased global interaction does nothing to

improve food distribution in less industrialized societies. In this regard, benefits from food

164 import dependency and trade openness are thus most likely experienced by those who have the ability to take advantage of the opportunities of neo-liberalism and expanding global markets.

Discussion

As was the case with regard to dietary energy and protein supply models, no single theory can adequately explain the complexities of change in hunger in the general population as these findings reveal. However, certain theories such as military famine and urbanization

perspectives are more proximate to explaining hunger while others such as neo-Malthusian and

techno-ecological perspectives have their effects mediated through other terms such as economic

growth and modernization. In this section I summarize the key findings with regard to hunger in

the general population, further noting potential links between various theoretical explanations.

Whereas food availability is linked most closely to modernization and techno-ecology

theory it seems that the distributive component of food security as indicated by hunger in the

total population is primarily tied to military famine and urbanization perspectives, with

dependency theory and ethnic antagonisms being additional factors. Significant modernization

effects were limited to the limited significance of level of economic development, political

modernization in the form of growth in democratization, which eventually is mediated through

economic growth.

The significance of democratization in these models as opposed to the food availability

equation is important in that by reducing hunger in the general population its effects support

claims that this component of food security is more closely linked to distribution and not supply.

In other words, democratic states are no more efficient than non-democracies in increasing food

availability in less industrialized societies. They instead are better able at ensuring it is

165 distributed more equitably around society. Democratization therefore is an important goal in these societies given its relevance to human well-being and the commitment to what could be considered a human rights approach to food security. Thus, it is imperative that analyses of food security not stop with food availability and move to important considerations of access to that food and consideration of which portions of the population are most likely to experience hunger.

With regard to the findings presented here for hunger in the total population it seems that rural populations are most at risk on the food security front. Rural-urban disparity negatively impacts food security in both its supply and distribution forms, with further evidence of rural- urban inequality being the significance of economic disarticulation and the move from subsistence agriculture in less industrialized societies. However, it is not clear that such findings are due to dependency in that scores for rural-urban disarticulation are not associated with the various measures for dependency theory including decapitalization, export dependency, foreign capital penetration. At the same time, however, it is not necessarily the case that rural-urban inequality can be attributed to a temporary "growing pain" of development.

Expanding upon this, the subsistence agriculture link is the most interesting of these findings. Constructed as the change in agricultural productivity and thus the move away from self-sufficiency, findings reveal that subsistence agriculture is not necessarily backward or primitive but instead beneficial to food security in less industrialized societies. Although the significance of measures such as cash crop production and plantation agriculture would further strengthen these findings it remains interesting given the emphasis on modernization and integration of agriculture into the global economy. Furthermore, given that this effect was not present in the availability models, subsistence agriculture has nothing to do with increasing or

166 availability, it also appears that a larger military relative to the population improves distribution as well. This could possibly be linked to the military often being in charge of distributing food assistance in times of emergency need. Thus, the larger the institution, the more efficient the distribution. Alternatively, it may be the case that a strong military must be well-fed. Therefore, the larger the military participation ratio the lower the proportion of society that is going to go without sustenance, while the more likely a state is going to provide it so as not to have hungry and therefore disgruntled troops.

In addition to the urbanization and military famine factors there is also evidence that ethnic antagonisms also play a part with regard to hunger in the total population, though only when removing the control for growth in dietary energy supply from the equations. Unlike the combined equations for dietary energy supply where ethnic heterogeneity was mediated by economic growth, the ethnic competition ratio remains an important predictor of hunger in the total population. This measure does not capture overall ethnic diversity but instead reveals the impact of having dominant groups of similar size competing for power and influence in less industrialized societies. In such instances, ethnicity becomes highly political with food security being politicized as well to the extent that its distribution patterns become disrupted. Thus, the prevalence and potential of ethnic conflict is a vital consideration.

The most surprising finding with regard to hunger in the total population was the non- effect of the women in development perspective in the combined equation though change in the in the gender-related development index is significant at the theoretical level. As discussed above, this certainly has to do with the mediating effects of economic growth as shown, but also with regard to modernization in that wealthier and more developed societies are those who

168 improve the well-being of their entire population therefore increasing women’s education and participation in politics and the economy. Although case studies have shown that the empowerment of women is beneficial at the household level with regard to nutrition and food security there does not appear to be a trend generalizable to the cross-national level.“

Furthermore, there are links to other theories besides modernization, most notably neo-

Malthusian perspectives and the importance of considering population pressure associated with high fertility, though this approach is also linked to modernization as well.

In summing the findings of this chapter, there is continued merit to taking an approach to food security that considers a wide range of potential factors contributing to its complexities.

From these findings it becomes more clear that hunger in the total population is a related but different form of food security than caloric or protein availability analyzed above. In this regard, different theories are more proximate to contributing to one's understanding of this component, with military famine and urbanization perspectives having the most influence, while ethnic antagonisms and dependency make additional contributions.

^ As a final thought on this, data availability is also an important consideration with regard to the utility of measures such as the gender-related development index in combined models, for as with the availability models the number of cases is much less when using this measure, and thus likely to effect the results.

169 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .62"* .68*** .59*** population, circa 1970 (7.17) (7.65) (6.12)

Dietary energy supply .13.10*" -13.71*** -12.75*** growth (-10.39) (-10.07) (-9.14)

Economic -3.37** -2.38 -3.34** development level (-2.35) (-1.61) (-2.23)

Economic growth -7.47*** -6.17** (-3.15) (-2.11)

Food import .05 .08 dependency growth (.40) (.70)

Trade openness -.11* -.08 growth (-1.97) (-1.32)

Constant -21.99 26.15 -11.75

Number of cases 75 76 76

F-value 73.131 40.58 36.73 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .80 .77 .78 'significant at p=. 10, two tails "significant at p=.05, two tails *** significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.1: Lagged Panel Regression of Base Model and Globalization Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

170 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .55*^^ .52^^* .45**^ population, circa 1970 (5.55) (5.15) (5.36) (4.37)

Dietary energy supply -12.23^^^ -11.64^*^ -11.54^^^ -10.87*^^ growth (-8.59) (-8.13) (-8.34) (-7.62)

Economic -.72 -.83 -.54 -1.80 development level (-.46) (-.54) (-.37) (-1.09)

Economic growth -4.46 (-1.59)

Industrialization -25* -.25^ -.19 -.16 (-1.76) (-1.75) (-1.44) (-121)

High-tech industry -4.00^ -4.59^^ -423* (presence=l) (-1.805) (-2.13) (-1.98)

Democratization -.71^^ -.53 change (-2.17) (-1.54)

Constant 22.01 29.59 23.29 -1.01

Number of cases 58 58 58 58

F-value 41.94 35.64 32.59 29.13 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .74 .75 .77 .78 *signifîcant at p=. 10, two tails ♦•significant at p=.05, two tails •••significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.2: Lagged Panel Regression of Modernization Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

171 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .51*** /#••• 31*** population, circa 1970 (427) (3.92) (2.98)

Dietary energy supply -11.02*^ -10.65*^^ -9.39*** growth (-5.92) (-5.99) (-4.95)

Economic -2.78 -2.09 -2.55 development level (-1.55) (-120) (-1.49)

Economic growth -1.32* (-1.65)

Export dependency 1327^* 15.33^^ 14.93^^ growth (2.18) (2.61) (2.60)

Foreign capital 124 1.16 .72 penetration (1.03) (1.00) (.62)

Agricultural .003 •• .002* inequality (2.14) (1.73)

Constant 31.19 19.94 -26.86

Number of cases 40 40 40

F-value 18.81 18.08 16.70 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .70 .72 .74 •significant at p=. 10, two tails ••significant at p=.05, two tails ••♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 52: Lagged Panel Regression of Dependency Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

172 Model 1 Model 2 b b (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .56‘ ‘ ‘ .48‘ ‘ ‘ population, circa 1970 (5.88) (4.69)

Dietary energy supply -10.91‘ ‘ ‘ -10.09‘ ‘ ‘ growth (-8.35) (-7.40)

Economic -3.35‘ ‘ -3.79‘ ‘ development level (-2.05) (-2.34)

Economic growth -5.27‘ (-1.72)

Economic .11‘ .09 disarticulation (1.84) (1.56)

Transition from 23.95‘ ‘ ‘ 19.04‘ ‘ subsistence agriculture (3.135) (2.39)

Dualism .06 .05 (.12) (.10)

Rural-urban disparity .82‘ ‘ ‘ .79*** (2.83) (2.77)

Constant 22.89 -9.88

Number of cases 47 47

F-value 24.47 22.85 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .78 .79 *significant at p=.10, two tails ♦‘significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.4: Lagged Panel Regression of Urbanization Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

173 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .71*** .72*** /%♦♦♦ population, circa 1970 (7.79) (7.70) (6.44)

Dietary energy supply -1 3 .9 6 ''' -13.97''' -1 2 .6 2 ''' growth (-10.58) (-10.53) (-9.54)

Economic -1.46 -1.53 -3.44'' development level (-.98) (-1.02) (-2.23)

Economic growth -8 .1 7 ''' (-3.04)

Fertility growth 1.76' 2.16' 1.95 (1.77) (1.70) (1.63)

Age dependency -4.54 -11.80 growth (-.507) (-1.35)

Constant 21.96 22.15 -24.77

Number of cases 68 68 68

F-value 58.96 46.66 45.57 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .78 .77 .80 'significant at p=.10, two tails ♦♦significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.5: Lagged Panel Regression of Neo-Malthusian Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

174 Model 1 Model 2 b b (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .66*** .57*** population, circa 1970 (5.13) (4.46)

Dietary energy supply -10.91^^^ -10.61^^^ growth (-5.03) (-5.13)

Economic development -.88 -2.01 level (-.43) (-1.01) Economic growth -7.87** (-2.14)

Techno-ecological heritage -6.99^^ (industrializing- (-2.83) (-2.09) agrarian=l) Agricultural density -.06 -.06 growth (-.96) (-1.13) Agricultural labor force .22 .20 growth (1.22) (1.15) Intensification of -.001 -.001 farming (-.21) (-.42)

Diffusion of Green .001 .001 Revolution (58) (.81) Infiastructural -.01 .01 development (-.17) (.16) Constant 24.93 -25.83

Number of cases 45 45

F-value 17.61 17.94 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .77 .79 ^significant at p=.10, two tails ♦♦significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.6: Lagged Panel Regression of Techno-Ecological Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

175 Model 1 Model 2 b b (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .?!••• population, circa 1970 (6.54) (5.42)

Dietary energy supply -12.1 -11.48^^^ growth (-7.16) (-7.16)

Economic -.07 -2.10 development level (-.04) (-1.18)

Economic growth -8.64^^ (-2.58)

Non-agricultural -.08 -.06 female labor force (-.93) (-.69) participation growth

Gender-related -44.16^ -29.20 development index (-1.91) (-1.31) growth

Constant 1920 -32.01

Number of cases 46 46

F-value 25.74 25.58 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. RZ .73 .77 ^significant at p=. 10, two tails ••significant at p=.05, two tails •••significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.7: Lagged Panel Regression of Women in Development Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

176 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total .6 9 " ' .58*" .10 population, circa 1970 (7.81) (5.84) (.802)

Dietary energy supply -1 4 .0 9 '" -12.73*" growth (-10.79) (-9.15)

Economic -2.45 -3.86** -9.60*** development level (-1.56) (-2.36) (-4.37)

Economic growth -6.09** -1520*** (-2.34) (-4.34)

Military spending -2.72 7.91 61.56** burden growth (-13) (.39) (2.16) Military participation .10 .04 -22** ratio growth (1.41) (.59) (-226)

Arms imports burden .03*" .03*** .05*** growth (2.95) (2.67) (2.73)

Presence of civil war -.51 -.93 -.56 (-24) (-.45) (-.19)

Constant 24.53 -8.70 -3623

Number of cases 71 71 71

F-value 39.39 37.61 13.19 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .79 .81 .58 'significant at p=. 10, two tails "significant at p=.05, two tails "♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.8: Lagged Panel Regression of Military Famine Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

177 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Hunger in the total J6*** .64* .33^^ population, circa 1970 (8.34) (6.52) (2.34)

Dietary energy supply -14.00^^^ -12.85^^^ growth (-9.93) (-9.07)

Economic -1.96 -321** -1.92*** development level (-1.24) (-2.02) (-3.40)

Economic growth -6.55^^ -13.73^^^ (-2.59) (-3.69)

Ethnic competition 3.34 2.56 11.06^ ratio (.86) (.69) (1.98)

Intensity of political -2.12 -2.58 2.31 discrimination (-.31) (-.40) (.23)

Constant 19.77 -17.44 -43.08

Number of cases 64 64 64

F-value 41.02 38.67 12.47 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R* .76 .78 .48 ♦significant at p=. 10, two tails ♦♦significant at p=.05, two tails ««•significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.9: Lagged Panel Regression of Ethnic Antagonisms Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

178 Model 1 Model 2 Models Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 b b b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Himger in the total .67*«* .59* •• J4 » '« 21»»» .46»»» .05 population, circa 1970 (6.27) (6.15) (6.56) (6.96) (528) (.48)

Dietary energy supply -11.80**» -10.20*** -9.87»»» -9.59»»» -9.12»»» growth (-7.91) (-7.24) (-8.39) (-928) (-8.22)

Economic development -.55 -.02 -1.27 -2.21» -2.73»» -6.62»»» level (-.318) (-.02) (-.89) (-1.72) (-2.01) (-2.94)

Economic growth -3.12 -10.20»" (-1.15) (-2.71)

Democratization change -.82** -69*« -69»» -.50» -27 -.06 (-2.12) (-2.00) (-2.38) (-1.92) (-1.34) (-.15)

Export dependency 20.96» •• 10.58» 10.66" 9.65» 11.01 growth (3.35) (1.81) (2.08) (1.87) (1.44)

Economic disarticulation .10»» .10»» .09»» .07 (2.29) (2.58) (2.36) (1.14)

Tramition fiom 1925»» 19.30*»» 1723»» 21.25" subsistence agriculture (2.66) (3.02) (2.61) (2.13)

Rural-urban disparity .84»»' .60»» 2 7 " .67»' (3.32) (2.60) (2.47) (2.08)

Anns import burden .08»»» .09»" .09 " growth (3.40) (3226) (2.26)

Military spending burden 56.81" growth (1.77)

Military participation -.33» » ratio growth (-2.17)

Ethnic competition ratio 1028" (227)

Constant 13.54 14.13 12.70 17.98 -.14 -2521

Number of cases 44 44 44 44 44 43

F-value 24 J1 26.81 26.95 32.47 29.62 11.61 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj.RZ .68 .75 .83 .87 .87 .75 «significant at p=.10, two tails * «significant at p=.05, two tails significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 5.10: Lagged Panel Regression of Multiple Theoretical Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

179 CHAPTER 6

CHILD HUNGER AND VULNERABILITY TO FOOD INSECURITY

Introduction

In this chapter I examine the determinants of change in child hunger to further explore barriers contributing to food distribution and access in less industrialized societies. This measure captures the percentage of children under the age of five who are undernourished. Just as increasing food availability does not necessarily reduce hunger in the total population, reducing hunger in the total population does not by default mean that children will benefit from this improvement in food security. This chapter therefore explores how the most vulnerable segment of the population is affected by the various economic, political, and social factors that determine the food security dynamic.

Food access and distribution therefore remain the essential consideration in this part of the analysis. Children are a key test of a society's ability to equitably distribute social goods for they are the segment that is the least to be able to fend for itself, often being the first casualties of hunger (Bennett 1987). Hence, the child hunger measure is a valuable test of the extent to which available foodstuffs are distributed so as to benefit the entire populace. A high or growing prevalence of child hunger is not only a good indication of a country’s current economic and

180 social well-being, but perhaps more importantly where it is headed in the future in that the inability to care for its children is certainly a negative sign of times to come.

Findings

The theoretical models. Tables 6.1 through 6.10 present findings for the analysis of change in child hunger between 1975 and 1990. As with the models for hunger in the total population positive signs in the equations indicate increases in a negative attribute, hunger, and thus a decline in food security. As before 1 begin each sequence with a simple base model and follow with equations for each theoretical perspective before constructing the combined models..

The sample contains less industrialized countries with a population of 1 million or more in 1970. I once again use an ordinary least squares lagged panel design to determine the effects of independent variables net of controlling for the dependent variable at an earlier point in time.

1 also continue to utilize standard procedures to ensure robustness and correct specification of my models, checking models for heteroskedasticity and influential cases, with both of which revealing no problems.^'* Because of missing data, the final models in the analysis contain 54 cases.“

Algeria, Argentina, Mauritania, Thailand, and Zambia all appear as outliers when performing influence diagnostics. However, further analysis indicates that these are not influential cases that bias the regression results.

^ The sample for the combined models examining child hunger includes Algeria, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Burma, Cameroon, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Congo, Costa Rica, Côte Dfvoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Ghana, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Sudan, Thailand, Togo, Uganda, Venezuela, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

181 Table 6.1 reveals two models for the effects of the lagged term for child hunger, development level, economic growth, and change in dietary energy supply. As in the models for hunger in the total population, controlling for change in food supply is an important test as to whether child hunger reduction can be attributed to factors. However, unlike with hunger in the total population, the effects of growth in dietary energy supply is mediated through economic growth and therefore not directly relevant. This is not only the case in the simple base model as indicated in Equation 3 but also the theoretical and combined models as well. For this reason I exclude it from the remaining equations, noting the significance that although increasing dietary energy supply significantly improves the overall hunger situation in less industrialized countries, that improvement apart from working through economic growth does nothing to ensure the well­ being of the most vulnerable portion of these societies: children.

If improvement in dietary energy supply is not the most essential consideration the question of child hunger becomes one of distribution and access as with hunger in the total population. Thus, I again move to each perspective for explanation. Table 6.1 also presents the impact for globalization on child hunger, indicating that growth in food import dependency significantly reduces child hunger while trade opeimess has no effect. This stands, net of significant effects of the lagged term for child hunger, modernization in the form of economic development level, and the addition of economic growth in Equation 2. As with the food availability equations, food imports improve child well-being, though not hunger in the total population. This is interesting in that those most vulnerable to food insecurity benefit from these processes in the form of food import patterns. This may be due to the type of food being imported and targeted distribution to areas where need is greater due to the potential of famine

182 within the younger segment of the population. Furthermore, it may be that governmental and non-governmental programs alike are directed to improve child well-being specifically. Data do not permit direct examination of this question at the cross-national level, but future research should certainly examine this.

Moving Tables 6.2 and 6.3 one finds that classical explanations for development in the form of modernization and dependency theory have little explanatory ability with regard to child hunger. In the modernization equation, industrialization trickles down to improve child hunger in Equation 1, but the addition of growth in democratization mediates this effect. As with hunger in the total population democracies therefore do a better job of improving food distribution than non-democratic states. Unlike previous equations, this effect is not mediated by economic growth indicating the democratization is more proximate to improving child well­ being than it is reducing hunger in the total population. As for the dependency models in Table

6.3 there are no effects, unlike in the food availability and hunger models discussed above. In this regard, dependency Is not useful at the cross-national level of analysis for explaining development outcomes as specific as change in child hunger. It therefore must be applied to

183 more general patterns of food availability or hunger in the total population or tie its links to effects related to urbanization patterns as I discuss below.“

Moving to urbanization considerations in Table 6.4 findings indicate that once again this is an important consideration with regard to determining barriers of food distribution in less industrialized societies. An interesting new effect is that rural to urban migration significantly reduces child hunger. This is important in that it reinforces the plight that rural populations face with regard to their food security. As findings with regard to hunger in the total population indicate, inequality between rural and urban environments has a large presence in the developing world. The fact that child well-being with regard to food security improves when the countryside is abandoned for life in urban environments which are certainly not the most inviting of places, especially the poor, says a lot with regard to the stark reality of peasant life. It seems unfathomable that a slum on the outskirts of Mexico City or a shanty-town outside of Calcutta is an improvement in life but that is the case with regard to child hunger and struggles in rural life.

As with the models for hunger in the total population, movement fiom subsistence agriculture increases child hunger (Equation 2). Thus, self-sufficiency in agriculture not only benefits the population as a whole, but also improves the lot of children in these societies.

“ Separate analyses not directly related to food security examining child mortality indicate that dependency theory does have significant effects. However, even here the significance is more of a general effect in that child mortality rates are measures not so much of a measure of child well-being or status as it is a general indicator of a society's development which therefore captures a variety of other components including education and health considerations as well industrialization and other modernization determinants. In addition, as in the models for food availability and hunger in the total population indicators for absolute poverty were once again significant and quite strong but the number of cases was far too low to be considered acceptable. Thus, the inequality component of dependency perspectives has relevance in this realm as well.

184 Subsistence agriculture appears to better enables families to feed their children than high productivity agriculture akin to large-scale enterprises in which laborers are likely required to purchase their food on the open market with wages earned in the fields. In this regard higher productivity that may in fact increase supply does nothing to improve distribution and in fact creates barriers to access that harm child well-being. In addition, the presence of dualism is also detrimental (Equation 3), though growth in disparity is not significant indicating continued relevance of inequality between rural and urban sectors with regard to food security and its distributive component in the form of child hunger. However, it is important to note that economic growth does mediate the effects of movement from subsistence agriculture and dualism as Equation 4 indicates. Thus, of the urbanization measures present, it appears that rural to urban migration has the closest proximity to explaining child hunger, thus again reinforcing the harshness of rural peasant life.

Moving to neo-Malthusian perspectives in Table 6.5 child hunger again presents some alternative outcomes from what analyses for food availability and hunger in the total population

indicated. In simple models not shown, fertility growth significantly increases child hunger, though this effect does not remain with the addition of other neo-Malthusian variables, be it rural population growth or growth in the age dependency ratio. Furthermore, its effects are mediated by economic growth as with other dependent variables. I instead report findings regarding the age dependency ratio which is a stronger measure in these models than fertility and therefore more proximate to child hunger. As Equation 1 indicates growth in the age dependency ratio

increases child hunger while the addition of the rate of rural population growth adds additional explanatory power in Equation 2. The addition of rural population growth attenuates the relative

185 strength of the age dependency term” indicating that high age dependency is at least partially a rural phenomenon, a fact further supported by the strong correlation between these two terms

(r=.40). In this regard population pressure is a rural phenomenon where peasant-life demands larger families, again pointing to the harshness of life in the countryside. However, both rural population growth and the growth in age dependency are mediated through economic growth which washes out their significance in Equation 3. Thus, neo-Malthusian perspectives are important in that population pressure is an important consideration at a basic level though its links to other perspectives, mainly modernization and economic growth processes, again mediate its effects predicting child hunger as was the case in the models for food availability and hunger in the total population.

Table 6.6 presents findings for techno-ecological explanations for child hunger, which as with hunger in the total population has little explanatory power as these equations indicate. The only factor having a significant effect on child hunger was techno-ecological heritage in which industrializing agrarian societies were significantly better than industrializing horticultural ones with regard to this component of the distributive aspect of food security and this is only the case in simple equations with only the base terms for modernization and the other controls. Thus, techno-ecology is once again not useful for predicting food security beyond its links to the availability models noted above where it has a strong presence.

Table 6.7 reveals findings for the women in development perspective and its links to child hunger. As was the case with the models for food availability and hunger in the total

” The standardized regression coefficient Beta slightly declines from .14 to .12 in addition to the weaker t-values reported in Table 6.5.

186 population, the gender-related development index significantly improves food security, thus reducing child hunger. Strengthening women's position in society relative to men therefore improves child well-being further reinforcing the importance of further including women and girls in development agendas of the future. Improving women’s position in development not only benefits society as a whole but ensures a better future for less industrialized societies by decreasing child hunger.

Further evidence of this can be seen with the significance of growth in the non- agricultural female labor force which also significantly reduces child hunger. Women have always participated in the economy, namely in the agricultural sector. By indicating the extent to which they have been able to escape "traditional" roles and move into the service and manufacturing sectors of the economy this measure captures the opportunities granted to women in less industrialized societies. Movement from agriculture to other sectors can mean a number of things including fertility reduction and migration from the harshness of the rural environment.

With regard to child hunger it could mean greater household income from wage labor that is more likely in the non-agricultural sectors while also indicating empowerment of women and increasing influence. Children thus benefit when the lives of those who are their primary care givers is improved and this empowerment is shared.

Lastly with regard to women in development perspectives, the child hunger findings are significant net of economic growth which mediates the effects of the female empowerment measures in the models for food availability and hunger in the total population. In this regard, the gender related development index and growth in non-agricultural female employment are more proximate to child hunger than the other components of food security. Thus, improving the

187 status of women in development processes is most essential for bettering child-well being and increasing their access to the food that is available in less industrialized societies.

Next I turn to the military famine perspective which Table 6.8 presents. In these equations there are patterns similar to the availability and hunger in the total population models in that the once again the arms import burden significantly reduces food security indicating that children are not exempt from their detrimental impacts. Neither the military spending burden nor military participation ratio are significant in Equations 1 or 2 however. The military participation ratio comes in after controlling for economic growth in Equation 3 which also washes out the negative impacts of arms transfers. Thus, with regard to affecting child hunger, arms transfers is not a factor in the context of growing economies while the benefits of the military participation ratio are. It once again appears that the military participation ratio is more aptly described as a modernization variable in that its effects are in tune with this perspective more so than the detrimental impacts of militarization associated with military famine arguments.

Further consideration of the military famine perspective indicates the negative impacts of civil war and war in general as Equations 1 and 2 indicate respectively. Because these terms are not significant predictors of food availability or hunger in the total population, armed conflict is therefore linked most closely to food security through the harmful effects it has on the most vulnerable portion of society: children. What many have found to be highly important in case studies invoking the importance of the military famine perspective can now be generalized to the cross-national level as these findings indicate. In this regard the structural violence that some consider hunger to exemplify is linked closely to armed conflict and traditional considerations of

188 violence. It should thus be clear that "food wars" are a large source of hunger in less- industrialized societies and until such conflict can be alleviated military famine is likely to remain a large global concern.

Table 6.9 contains the last theory-specific models, examining the impacts of ethnic antagonisms perspectives on child hunger. Findings here also present considerations unique to this distributive aspect of food security compared to the other forms I have examined in this analysis. First, the intensity of ethnic political discrimination increases child hunger in less industrialized societies. Thus, not only does the prevalence of ethnic inequality decrease food security meaning that certain groups are more vulnerable to hunger, but this vulnerability is directly linked to children. Thus, children who are minorities are more likely to experience hunger and therefore less well-being in the developing world. Race stratification therefore is an essential dynamic with regard to food security and its distribution component.

Further evidence of this can be seen in Equation 2 which indicates that the prevalence of genocide or politicide also significantly increases child hunger. States in which such patterns of violence occur thus do not present an environment conducive to increasing the rights and access that the population has to food availability. When barriers of ethnic antagonisms become so severe that portions of the population are systematically targeted for this most severe form of discrimination and political exclusion, then priorities such as simple as pursuing child well-being by ensuring adequate distribution of food become lost or unimportant.

Adding the ethnic competition ratio in Equation 3 washes out the effects of ethnic political discrimination meaning that the discrimination occurring is not so much due to the prevalence of different ethnic groups but instead the presence of competing groups of similar

189 size. As with food availability and hunger in the total population ethnic competition detracts from seeking food security for all. In addition, given the links between ethnic antagonisms and civil war these findings further reinforce the importance of the military famine perspective, most notably the negative impacts of civil war noted above given the importance of culture, ethnicity, and religion in contributing to armed conflict.

The combined models. Table 6.10 contains the combined models for the determinants of child hunger as an Indicator of the access component of food security. As in the models for food availability and hunger in the total population these results reveal those measures that are most proximate to child hunger and therefore indicative of the best models for explaining the complexities of child hunger while utilizing a number of theoretical lenses simultaneously.

Equations 1 through 3 reveal the importance of democratization, rural to urban migration, dualism, and growth in the non-agricultural female labor force for reducing child hunger and therefore improving food security in less industrialized societies. Democratization as political modernization and the female labor force measure indicative of the women in development perspective reveal the importance that a notion of equality and human rights have with regard to food distribution and ensuring the well-being of a nation's citizens. Rural to urban migration on the other hand points to inequality of a different sort, that between rural and urban environments, and the fact that food security improves when moving from the former to the latter of these contexts. The significant and harmful effects of the dualism term confirm the harshness of rural life in this equation, indicating that inequality between rural and urban environments is great, hence the migration patterns.

190 Moving to Equation 4 one sees that the military famine perspective also finds support in that civil wars negatively impact food security in the combined equation by increasing child hunger. Although not shown in the equation sequence, the same is true for war in general, thus revealing that the negative consequences of this component of the military famine perspective is not limited to internal unrest but is indicative of armed conflict more generally. Equation 5 adds the intensity of ethnic political discrimination, which washes out the effects of non-agricultural female labor force participation.^ Ethnicity therefore remains an important consideration with regard to food security, while also capturing the benefits of movement toward gender equality.

Thus, where there are high levels of ethnic discrimination, gender inequality is also likely therefore removing the women in development effect.

In addition, adding food import dependency as an indicator of globalization (Equation 6) reveals that this is not a factor in improving child hunger in less industrialized societies. I show this equation to emphasize that despite being relevant at a simple level, the dynamics of globalization are explained away by the combination of other factors contributing to child hunger. That is, the benefits of food import dependency appearing in simpler models is less important than the impacts of civil war, ethnic discrimination, and urbanization dynamics.

Lastly, adding economic growth in Equation 7 does not alter any of the above findings meaning that none of the effects are mediated by it.

^ Although strong in the theoretical equations, neither the ethnic competition ratio nor the presence of genocide or politicide was significant in the combined model sequence due to their links to civil wars. This therefore supports the notion above claiming links between the military famine and ethnic antagonisms perspectives in that the presence of civil wars mediates the effects of genocide/ politicide and ethnic competition in less industrialized societies.

191 In sum, multiple theoretical perspectives are once again necessary to explain the complexities of food security. In addition, numerous new factors arise that indicate the relevance of child hunger as an additional component of food security that merits attention. That is, although certain factors have important explanatory capabilities across each dependent variable, there are enough differences between these measures to merit detailed analysis of each.

Discussion

In this chapter there is once again evidence for the need of entertaining multiple theoretical perspectives with regard to examining food security in less industrialized societies.

Overall, this examination of child hunger indicates that urbanization, military famine, ethnic antagonisms and political modernization are the most important factors, with the women in development perspective adding additional explanation. Techno-ecology theory and the dependency perspective, on the other hand, have little to contribute to the understanding of child hunger as a distribution component of food security, excepting for maybe the links of the latter with the rural-urban inequality while the effects the of neo-Malthusian perspective are mediated by economic development and growth. Because the explanatory factors for child hunger are different than those for food supply and hunger in the total population, it merits further discussion as I do in this section, thus elaborating on the unique factors which make this an important part of food security to examine.

One of the most interesting findings with regard to child hunger is the importance of democratization as was the case in the models for hunger in the total population. Once again, the importance of political freedom and the emphasis that democracies place on equality and the well-being of their citizenry relative to more authoritarian states has effects that trickle down to

192 the most vulnerable segment of these societies in the form of their children. If rights are an important consideration to food security as some argue, then this analysis certainly reinforces that notion with the significance of democratization and its links to reduction in child hunger.

Linked to democratization and rights are the effects of the women in development perspective, most notably the gender-related development index and non-agricultural female labor force participation. The latter of these measures is a very strong predictor of the reduction in child hunger and is significant only in these models. Thus, equality associated with women working in non-traditional sectors of the economy has food security benefits that are most near to

improving the well-being of children as opposed to hunger in the more general population or basic food supply. Empowered women with newly found roles and freedoms in society are thus better able to ensure the nutrition of children. Another way of explaining this effect is that just as if one vulnerable group in society experiences discrimination or hardship, the more likely

another group is as well, the reverse could be true in that gains by one group could mean that

another group is gaining as well. In this case, progress achieved by women can be translated to

children and improvements in their quality of life.

This can perhaps be made more clear by considering the link between growth in non-

agricultural female labor force participation and the intensity of ethnic political discrimination

which washes this term out in the combined equation. The presence of discrimination toward

one group, in this case ethnic minorities, means likely discrimination of another group, women.

Therefore, the positive effects of increasing their participation in non-traditional sectors of the

economy are lost. Ethnic political discrimination is therefore an important consideration in that

it indicates the vulnerability of minorities at risk in less industrialized societies with regard to

193 food security and human well-being, but such inequality can also translate to inequality in other forms. In this regard, vulnerability to hunger on behalf of one group is very likely to be linked to the vulnerability of others who experience similar barriers to food access.

Ethnic antagonisms are also important for their ties to the military famine perspective as well. The presence of genocide/politicide is highly correlated (r=.50) with the presence of civil war for example which mediates the effects of the ethnic competition ratio in combined equations. When considering barriers to food access that result in child hunger one must therefore not ignore the importance of military famine and ethnic antagonisms perspectives.

Genocide, war, ethnic competition, and discrimination are forms of economic and political stratification that clearly translate into human development outcomes and having the most serious impact on children in these societies. If hunger is about problems in food access then one of the best places to explore this is with regard to armed conflict and ethnic inequality.

In further examining the consequences of inequality with regard to food access in less industrialized societies it is also important to address the dynamics of urbanization and its ties to rural poverty. In the combined equation rural to urban migration is a strong predictor of child hunger, indicating that moving from the harshness of rural life to growing urban environments

improves food security. The trials of the peasantry is further reinforced in that dualism increases child hunger in the final models (although mediated by economic growth) while moving from subsistence agriculture in the theoretical equations is also detrimental. As with hunger in the total population, inequality between rural and urban environments is a serious consideration with regard to food access and ensuring adequate distribution of available food supplies beyond the urban centers in less industrialized societies. Although this analysis has not permitted direct

194 tests for "urban bias" that points to specific policies implemented that favor rural environments, there is evidence that the rural sector fares worse with regard to food security, with children apparently taking the hardest hit.

Next, it is interesting to note that the positive effects from globalization seen in the food availability models does not translate to improved food distribution in less industrialized societies. Although food import dependency has a significant effect in the simple theoretical model for globalization, its impact is mediated by the combination of other factors, most notably the urbanization measures. That is, in models not shown the positive effects of increasing food imports is washed away by the negative impacts of rural to urban migration, dualism, and the shift from subsistence agriculture. Thus, food imports are most likely improving food access in the city and not the countryside, hence the migration. On this note, although there are no effects from traditional and more direct dependency measures, the findings here highlighting the links between food import dependency and rural-urban inequality certainly hint in that direction.

Food imports are beneficial to food security if they can be purchased, and the most likely place for this to occur are urban markets where populations are increasingly shifting.

Lastly, it is important to reiterate the fact that growth in dietary energy supply does not trickle down to improving child hunger, but instead is captured by level of economic development and economic growth. Unlike with hunger in the total population, children do not see improvement in their food security situation with growing food supplies. This reinforces the notion of their vulnerability with regard to development well-being. In this regard special consideration must be given to understanding how despite increasing food availability and

195 improvement among the general population regarding hunger does not translate to reductions in hunger among children in less industrialized societies.

These findings therefore also reinforce the importance of moving beyond examining simple food availability in less industrialized societies and systematically examining factors related to distribution and barriers to access. Whether it be war or inequality of a number of types, exploring how a food surplus does not translate into "food for all" as proclaimed at the

1996 World Food Summit is an essential task, and it is this question that I continue to explore in the next chapter.

196 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa •81*** .71*** 68*** .65*** 1970 (17.98 (13.73) (12.02) (12.10)

Dietary energy supply -1.87** -.91 growth (-2.33) (•1.19)

Economic -2.79"* -2.91*** -3.36*** development level (-2.86) (-2.75) (-3.34)

Economic growth -4.74*** -4.84*** (-3J2) (-2.83)

Food import -.17** -.15** dependency growth (-228) (-221)

Trade opetmess -.04 -.002 growth (-.97) (-.04)

Constant .65 -15.93 20.86 -11.96

Number of cases 74 74 59 59

F-value 164.90 102.67 75.93 7023 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .82 .85 .84 .86 'significant at p=.10, two tails "significant at p=.05, two tails "•significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6.1: Lagged Panel Regression of Base Model and Globalization Determinants of Hunger in the Total Population.

197 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa 70*** .69^^^ 1970 (11.40) (11.75) (11.71)

Economic -1.76 -1.61 -2.10^ development level (-1.58) (-1.51) (-1.96)

Economic growth -2A1* (-1.90)

Industrialization -.16^ -.11 -.08 (-1.963) (-1.37) (-.97)

Democratization -.55^^^ -.43^^ change (-2.69) (-2.10)

Constant 14.26 12.97 -5.35

Number of cases 67 67 67

F-value 97.80 82.41 69.41 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .81 .83 .84 ’ signmcant at p=. 10, two tails *‘ significant at p=.05, two tails ** ♦significant at p=.OI or greater, two tails

Table 6.2: Lagged Panel Regression of Modernization Determinants of Child Hunger.

198 Model 1 Model 2 b b (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa .69*** .70^** 1975 (9.83) (10.49)

Economic -2.n* -2.51* development level (-1.78) (-1.77)

Economic growth -6.47^« C2.19)

Export dependency 1.68 -.32 growth (.44) (-.09)

Foreign capital .66 .10 penetration (.82) (.13) Agricultural .001 .001 inequality (1.27) (.91) Constant 1322 -33.16

Number of cases 39 39

F-value 43.59 41.33 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .85 .86 •significant at p=.10, two tails ••significant at p=.05, two tails $ $ $significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6 J: Lagged Panel Regression of Dependency Determinants of Child Hunger.

199 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa .16*** .11*** .12*** 1975 (14.20) (14.61) (14.98) (14.19)

Economic -2.62^^^ -2.1A*** -2.13*^ -2.58*** development level (-2.63) (-2.82) (-2.13) (-2.66)

Economic growth -4.55*** (-2.67)

Rural-urban migration -.17^^^ -.19*** (-2.75) (-2.83) (-3.13) (-3.30)

Transition firom 8.44^ 8.54* 322 subsistence agriculture (1.95) (1.86) (.67)

Dualism .55** .39 (2.01) (1.48)

Rural-urban disparity .05 .003 (.32) (.02)

Constant 17.04 16.84 11.34 -17.45

Number of cases 64 64 64 64

F-value 121.19 96.06 67.05 64.67 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .85 .86 .86 .88 •significant at p=.10, two tails ••significant at p=.05, two tails •••significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6.4: Lagged Panel Regression of Urbanization Determinants of Child Hunger.

200 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa .11*** .12*** .71” ’ 1975 (12.74) (13.01) (1328)

Economic -1.74 -.77 -1.75 development level (-1.57) (-.62) (-1.44)

Economic growth -4.76* •• (-2.91)

Age dependency 11.34” 9.61” 3.54 growth (.02) (2.09) (.74)

Rural population 1.23’ 1.06 growth (1.70) (1.55)

Constant 13.25 5.20 -23.76

Number of cases 67 67 67

F-value 110.11 85.79 78.56 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .83 .84 .85 ’ significant at p=.10, two tails •♦significant at p=.05, two tails ••♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6.5: Lagged Panel Regression of Neo-Malthusian Determinants of Child Hunger.

201 Model 1 Model 2 b b (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa .59’ ” 1975 (6.13) (5.65)

Economic -1.41 -2.36 development level (-.80) (-1.37)

Economic growth -5.40’ ♦ (-2.12)

Techno-ecological heritage -3.45 -1.50 (industrializing- (-1.49) (-1.37) agrarian=l)

Agricultural density .02 .02 growth (.34) (.38)

Agricultural labor .19 .18 force growth (1.52) (1.48)

Intensification of -.002 -.002 farming (-.78) (-.80)

Fertilizer consumption -.001 -.001 growth (-.37) (-27)

Infiastructural .04 .06 development (.81) (1.32)

Constant 1528 -19.23

Number of cases 44 44

F-value 16.15 1629 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .74 .76 ^significant at p=.10, two tails ♦’significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6.6: Lagged Panel Regression of Techno-Ecological Determinants of Child Hunger.

202 Model 1 Model 2 b b (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa .82” ’ .78’ ” 1975 (20.90) (19.79)

Economic -.38 -1.65’ development level (-.43) (-1.76)

Economic growth -3.95” ’ (-2.74)

Non-agricultural -.10” -.09” female labor force (-2.46) (-2.34) participation growth

Gender-related -48.66’ ” -36.69’ ” development index (-5.38) (-3.88) growth

Constant 11.71 -11.07

Number of cases 46 46

F-value 190.90 178.53 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .94 .95 ’significant at p=.10, two tails • ’significant at p=.05, two tails ’ ’ ’ significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6.7: Lagged Panel Regression of Women in Development Determinants of Child Hunger.

203 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa .70 .69^^^ .68^^^ 1975 (13.04) (12.63) (13.46)

Economic -2.43^^ -2.53^^ -2.16*** development level (-2.32) (-2.41) (-2.81)

Economic growth -A.12*** (-3.25)

Military spending 8.11 6.05 7.34 burden growth (.65) (.49) (.63)

Military participation -.06 -.06 -.08^ ratio growth (-1^5) (-1.29) (-1.79)

Arms imports burden •02^^ .02^^ .01 growth (2.30) (2.55) (1.56)

Presence of civil war 3.47^^ 3.06^^ (2.44) (2.30)

Presence of general 3.54^^ war (2.43)

Constant 14.67 15.16 -17.03

Number of cases 70 70 70

F-value 64.79 64.75 65.43 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .85 .85 .87 *significant at p=.10, two tails ♦•significant at p=.05, two tails ♦♦♦significant at p=.OI or greater, two tails

Table 6.8: Lagged Panel Regression of Military Famine Determinants of Child Hunger.

204 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa J 5 *** .15*** .13*** 1975 (12.47) (13.05) (13.45) (13.63)

Economic -1.63 -.90 -.97 -1.53 development level (-1.38) (-.79) (-.88) (-1.41)

Economic growth -3.69** (-2.60)

Intensity of political 1.11* 7.04^ 4.12 3.33 discrimination (1.80) (1.73) (.98) (83)

Presence of geno- 4.46^^^ 5.43^^^ 4.12*** politicide (2.95) (3.53) (3.17)

Ethnic competition 5.08^^ 4.05^ ratio (2.10) (1.73)

Constant 9.47 4.22 2.52 -20.00

Number of cases 63 63 63 63

F-value 95.59 83.27 8321 66.66 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .82 .84 .84 .86 ♦significant at p=. 10, two tails ♦♦significant at p=.05, two tails significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6.9: Lagged Panel Regression of Ethnic Antagonisms Determinants of Child Hunger.

205 Model 1 Model! Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model? b b b b b b b (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value) (t-value)

Child Hunger, circa .lA *** .??••• .11*** .74^^^ .13*** .13*** .13*** 1975 (10.68) (12.11) (12.53) (12.08) (12.05) (12.12) (12.35)

Economic -1.69 -1.10 -1.23 -1.01 -.47 -.13 -.60 development level (-1.43) (-1.01) (-1.17) (-.96) (-.45) (-.12) (-.55)

Economic growth •2.1%* (-1.66)

Democratization -.56^** -.56*^^ -49*^^ -.46^^ -.42^* -.34* change (-2.96) (-2.94) (-3.02) (-2.70) (-2.60) (-229) (-1.86)

Dualism .49^ .48^ .58^^ .46^ .48^ .40 (1.80) (1.81) (222) (1.75) (1.84) (1.52)

Rural-urban migration -.19^^^ -.17*^^ -,16^^^ -.16^^* -.14^^ -.15^^* (-3.23) (-2.96) (-2.86) (-3.04) (-2.50) (-2.66)

Non-agricultural -.13^^ -.11^ -.09 -.08 -.07 female labor force (-2.08) (-1.84) (-1.58) (-129) (-1.26) participation growth

Presence of civil war 2.11* 3.35*^ 3.64^* 2.88* (1.84) (226) (2.42) (1.86)

Intensity of ethnic 9.71^ 1125^^ 8.61* political (2.00) (2.23) (1.66) discrimination

Food import -.08 -.07 dependency growth (-1.12) (-.98)

Constant 10.89 6.06 7.76 5.65 1.94 -.15 -17.02

Number of cases 54 54 54 54 54 54 54

F-value 83.50 62.59 56.51 51.40 48.38 43.40 40.88 (F-prob.) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) (.0001)

Adj. R: .82 .85 .86 .87 .88 .88 .88 *sigoificant at p=.10, two tails ••significant at p=.05, two tails •••significant at p=.01 or greater, two tails

Table 6.10: Lagged Panel Regression of Multiple Theoretical Determinants of Child Hunger.

206 CHAPTER?

CONCLUSIONS: SOCIOLOGY AND THE STUDY OF FOOD SECURITY

Introduction

In this chapter I summarize the above analysis and discuss overall patterns with regard to the applicability of each theory of development and social change to food security in the context of globalization. Overall findings suggest that an integrated assessment approach to understanding the complexities of food security change in less industrialized societies is indeed necessary, with results indicating the importance of considering a number of different perspectives. In what follows below I discuss the contributions of the various perspectives with regard to the theoretical and combined models for each measure of food security thus presenting their overall value for understanding food security. In addition I discuss the overlap that exists between the various perspectives and potential integration and synthesis. Lastly, I discuss the overall significance of this analysis to food security more generally, citing key themes m this analysis and important directions in future food security research and the continued relevance of the sociology of hunger.

The Contributions of Theory

207 Table 7.1 summarizes the results for the most proximate theoretical contributions for the combination model sequences for each dependent variable, in addition to revealing the relevance of economic development level, economic growth, and change in dietary energy supply to these

equations. As Table 7.1 reveals, the findings indicate the importance of a number of

perspectives and their abilities to explain different components of food security. In this section I

discuss the utility of the various thematics and their proximity to explaining food security in less

industrialized societies as indicated by the final, combined models for each dependent variable

presented above, in addition to recalling significance relative to simpler theoretical models.

Modernization perspectives. Modernization theory is a consistently strong predictor of

food security throughout this analysis as revealed by Table 7.1 which indicates the importance of

this perspective to the combined models for food availability and access. This is not the case

with modernization in its most basic form, level of economic development, which has its effects

explained away by other measures in both theoretical and combined equations. Similarly,

economic growth which I utilize as a theoretical control also has limited significance apart from

the other predictors with its effects also being consumed by other independent variables in both

simple and more complex equations.

Modernization is beneficial to improving both the overall supply of food available in less

industrialized countries as well as ensuring that it is more equitably distributed in these societies.

Thus, with regard to the former consideration, evidence of modernization as indicated by human

capital formation, industrialization, and the prevalence of high-tech industry reveals that a strong

manufacturing base is good for the health of a country and that such human development

potential and economic stimulus trickles down to improve food security. Industrialization and

208 high tech industry are also important to improving food access, as is political modernization in the form of democratization. In this regard the notion of equity, fairness, and rights accorded in democracies affects the distributional component o f food security in that where such considerations are important, there are less barriers to sustenance. Findings thus indicate that democracy may not matter with regard to food availability in that democratic and non- democratic nations alike produce and acquire equal amounts of food. What is important is that democracies do a better job of ensuring fairer distribution.

One cannot therefore consider food security change apart from including its modernization components. Modem societies eat better than those struggling for survival, and this should be not be surprising. For this reason I include level of economic development in each of the remaining models in addition to testing for the impact of economic growth and the potential that effects may be mediated through it.

Dependency perspectives. The dependency perspective is also important to models for both food availability and access as indicated in Table 7.1. However, its effects in equations for the former of these do not survive into the final model because the inclusion of measures for the urbanization perspectives wash out its effects. With regard to the access models, the effects are on hunger in the total population and not child hunger specifically where one would perhaps expect them to more likely occur.

The theoretical model for dependency theory indicates that in a number of ways it significantly reduces dietary energy supply and protein availability, including growth in export dependency on primary products, foreign capital penetration in all sectors, growth in agricultural inequality, decapitalization, and the level of foreign capital penetration in agriculture. The

209 dependency perspective therefore highlights the effect of disruption to internal food supply in the form of shifts to export economies as well as foreign capital crowding out the benefits of domestic investment. Foreign influence and shifts to account for changing marketing demands therefore detrimentally impact less industrialized societies.

As for food access, the equations for hunger in the total population reveal effects from growth in export dependency and agricultural inequality significantly reduce food security.

However, only findings for the export dependency measure are significant in the combined model sequence and as noted above these effects are driven by a single case. South Korea, therefore reducing the relevance of dependency theory on this front. The disruption in food availability does not extend to hunger in the total population nor child hunger in less industrialized societies, thus indicating little relevance of dependency theory as an explanation within the multiple components of food security. Sociology could therefore be well-suited to find new and better ways of measuring dependency concepts and how they link to food security if this perspective is to maintain an important influence in research on development and social change.

For example, models including measures for absolute poverty indicate that this is a consistently strong predictor of food security problems, be it availability or access considerations. Unfortunately such data are limited in coverage and therefore can only be

interpreted with caution in that combined models containing these terms contain only a handful of cases therefore not enabling this measure to be used apart fiom simple equations. Such consideration should not totally be discounted however, for the prevalence of hunger is largely

indicative of the quality of life that people confront in less industrialized countries. That quality

210 of life is linked directly to the large prevalence of absolute poverty that denies even the most basic form of existence. In this regard dependency theory’s concern with poverty and its links to detrimental development incomes is supported. However, what causes that inequality cannot be ascertained in this analysis once again limiting the empirical conclusions that can be drawn in support of dependency theory.

However, dependency provides little to understanding problems of distribution in less industrialized societies as related to child hunger. Apart from the effects of absolute poverty as denoted in Footnote 1, food access in this form cannot be attributed to dependency patterns.

Thus, the dependency perspective appears to have more relevance with regard to the macro- structural economic processes that determine overall food supply while actual disruptions in distribution are linked more closely to internal problems such as rural-urban disarticulation, military famine, and ethnic antagonisms that I discuss in more detail below instead of external factors such as export dependency on primary products, decapitalization, distorted growth, or foreign capital penetration that are tied to international phenomena.

Lastly with regard to dependency theory, some of its effects are captured by other perspectives, namely the urbanization measures in the availability models. Furthermore, the dependency perspective conceived more broadly would not disagree with findings discussed with regard to the women in development perspective, military famine, and ethnic antagonisms approaches. The problem, however, is for the theory to link processes important to these perspectives clearly to international interference in and disruption of the indigenous economies of less industrialized societies.

211 Urbanization perspectives. The urbanization models extend the discussion of modernization and dependency theories to the important dynamics of rural-urban disarticulation and the consequences of potential "urban bias" and dualism in less industrialized societies. By providing an important testing ground for these various perspectives, urbanization processes can be seen to be essential considerations with regard to understanding food security.

In this analysis urbanization reveals the negative impacts of rural-urban inequality, the plight of rural populations, and how these extend to food security in the form of hunger in the total population and child hunger. It is therefore interesting to note that the urbanization perspectives are only relevant with regard to the combination models for food access as Table

7.1 reveals, indicating that the growth of cities has less to do with food supply than it does determining its distribution. Thus, dualism, economic disarticulation, the transition from subsistence agriculture, rural-urban disparity, and rural to urban migration all reveal gaps between rural and urban environments with regard to food security and human well-being. Each of these factors is detrimental to food security, with the exception of rural to migration, which indicates that moving from the countryside to the city reduces child hunger indicating the harshness of rural life.

What is unclear from this analysis, however, is whether urbanization processes can be linked more closely to actual urban bias, dependency theory or modernization theory or even neo-Malthusian and techno-ecological considerations. That is, each of these perspectives would agree that inequality and therefore food security problems are likely to arise due to urbanization processes. Where they differ is with regard to the duration of the disarticulation and its long­ term effects. Thus, in the 20 years o f food security change I examine in this analysis, it appears

212 that urbanization could be taken in a more critical light than modernization presents, though at the same time it is not entirely the case that this can be linked directly to dependency theory either as I note above in the discussion of the findings for each analysis. Furthermore, it may be that the period of interest is not great enough to exhibit the long term positive effects of urbanization processes that modernization and techno-ecological considerations claim to be important to less industrialized societies. This is especially the case with regard to the measure for the transition from subsistence to high production agriculture, which modernization theory would posit to be a more long-run effect. Thus, countries that experience high productivity at the current moment, but little growth between 1970 and 1990 may have made the transition already and are therefore reaping the benefits while those experiencing a lot growth maybe in the midst of the transition and therefore too early in the process for it to improve food security.

Urbanization thus will necessarily entail further analysis to disentangle the contributions of the various theoretical perspectives and their links to this process and its impact on food security in less industrialized societies. There clearly exists a productivity differential between rural and urban environments that results in inequality between these spatial regions in the developing world. There is no evidence presented in this analysis that this is due to the negative effects of dependency nor is the period of change sufficient enough to claim that long-term benefits of modernization are there either. If anything, it appears that a separate distinct perspective entailing urban bias or dualism is most appropriate to consider, though questions remain here with regard to measures that adequately capture this concept. Furthermore, the urban proximity to and links with agriculture merit additional explanation with regard to fitting these with urban bias, dependency, and modernization perspectives. This is particularly

213 imperative given the links between rural-urban migration, food security, and the move from subsistence agriculture that is ongoing in less industrialized societies.

Neo-Malthusian perspectives. Despite often being the first consideration with regard to the complexities of food security in less industrialized societies, in this analysis I find that neo-

Malthusian perspectives have little relevance to better understanding the dynamics of hunger.

As Table 7.1 indicates, the neo-Malthusian perspective is not a proximate an indicator of food security in any of the combined equations, being a significant predictor only in simple theoretical equations.

This is largely due to the links between neo-Malthusian concerns regarding over­ population and population pressure with other factors, namely modernization and economic development but also techno-ecological, urbanization and women in development perspectives.

Thus, it is not as if the "non-findings" for the neo-Malthusian predictors in the combined model sequence indicates that the world should not be concerned with population growth, for that is certainly not the case. What these findings reveal is that high levels of fertility or growth in age dependency can be explained by other indicators. Thus, there is a negative association between those countries experiencing the greatest levels of population growth and their level o f economic development, growth in urbanization, or the extent to which women participate in the non- agricultural labor force or receive an education. Similarly, there are also links between levels of population growth and the size of a country's agricultural labor force and rural poverty.

In this regard, doomsday hypotheses regarding the hazards of population growth with regard to food security in less-industrialized societies should be denoted with a large asterisk.

That is, at the cross-national level population matters only for its links to other factors more

214 proximate to explaining food availability and access in less industrialized countries. Concern for population growth in developing societies should be shifted in focus to questions of consumption and how to achieve sustainable development for the global population making population pressure the concern for north and south and therefore not blaming the latter for potential problems ensuing from this dynamic.

Techno-ecology perspectives. Opposite of the urbanization perspectives, techno-ecology theory indicates the positive impacts of ecological-evolutionary context and adaptation on the availability component of food security as Table 7.1 reveals. Thus, techno-ecological explanations for food security in less industrialized societies are more proximate to explaining dietary energy and protein supply than determining questions of distribution. In this regard the perspective is more valuable as a contributor to understanding what ecological context processes are important to making food more readily available but not what makes it more accessible.

What seems to be the most critical from this perspective is the importance of the prevalence of paved roads as a proxy for infrastructural development. Easing the burden of transportation of food to markets and where it is most needed is an essential contribution of infrastructural development. Those countries that have this ability are therefore more likely to have greater food availability as this analysis indicates. Furthermore, it is also probable that with infrastructure in the form of roads comes other factors of human adaptation as frndings in the theoretical equations for this perspective reveal.

For example, diffusion in the form of Green Revolution technologies and the intensification of agriculture both improve food supply while techno-ecological heritage is also important in that industrializing agrarian societies perform better than those with an

215 industrializing horticultural heritage. In addition, and further reducing the relevance of neo-

Malthusian concerns, growth in agricultural density is an important ecological force to providing the motivation for adaptation in that it has a positive effect on food availability. Furthermore, failure to make the transition from agricultural to industrial societies as revealed by growth in the labor force in agriculture is detrimental to food security change. Techno-ecology theory is therefore very important with regard to explaining the determinants of dietary energy and protein supply in less industrialized societies.

Where it has little explanatory capability is with food access as noted. Only the dummy variable for techno-ecological heritage is significant in the theoretical equations on this front, and only with regard to hunger in the total population. However, this should in no way lessen the contributions of this theory with regard to food security. If anything, it reinforces the notion that multiple perspectives must be examined when examining hunger, for different components of the concept may be explained by different theories.

Women in development perspectives. As Table 7.1 reveals the women in development perspective surprisingly appears to have little to contribute with regard to understanding food security in less-industrialized societies. The perspective is most closely proximate to explaining child hunger which is the only combination sequence in which a predictor from this perspective is significant. And, even here it disappears in the final equations due to its effects being captured by other terms, namely the presence of antagonisms in the form of ethnic political discrimination.

However, it is important to reiterate claims above noting that coverage on measures most essential to women in development is limited, meaning that using change in the gender-related

216 development index was not possible in the combined model sequence in that the number of cases fell to unacceptable levels. Furthermore, it is important to note that this measure predicts both food availability and access in each simple theoretical equations for each of the dependent variables indicating that the concerns of this perspective are relevant and should thus not be overlooked. In addition, the significance of growth in the non-agricultural female labor force in the child hunger equations is important by highlighting the links between the empowerment of women and child well-being. Taking an active interest in the development of women by opening

up new opportunities trickles down to benefit those who are most likely in their care. Thus,

limiting discrimination toward one segment of the population is likely to have spinoff effects that

benefit another at-risk portion, in this case children, but it is also likely to spread to other groups

as well.

It is also important to note the links between the women in development perspective with

other theories especially modernization and the neo-Malthusian points of view. It may be argued

that modem societies with greater economic development are also those that incorporate women

into the development process thus utilizing the full potential of the population. High levels of

female literacy or educational attainment in addition to non-agricultural labor force participation

are correlated with level of economic development, and therefore increased food security.

Furthermore, as noted above, empowering women means fertility reduction and therefore less

population pressure. In this regard, if the direct effects of improving female well-being are not

obvious from this analysis one should at least consider the indirect effects and spinoffs from

improving the lot of women in less industrialized societies.

217 Military famine perspectives. Turning next to the military famine perspective in Table

7.1 one sees a consistently strong predictive capability indicating as much proximity to food security as the modernization perspective. In this case, however, the effects touted from this point of view are geared more toward what is detrimental to food security in less industrialized societies, though the effects of the military participation ratio are in the opposite direction that this perspective would expect as discussed in the findings above.

Growth in the military spending and arms import burdens in addition to the presence of civil war are the most proximate predictors of the military famine perspective as indicated by the combination equations. The former two measures negatively impact both food availability and access while the latter is detrimental to the child hunger portion of food access. In addition, other measures are important in the theoretical equations including military instability, military repression, and the presence of general war indicating that breakdown in the institutionalization processes of the military in less industrialized societies is harmful as are international links in the form of war. Little good appears to come from militarization then in these societies.

That is, unless one considers the human capital formation contributions of the military participation ratio which as noted increases food security. In this regard, the benefits of a high military participation ratio espoused by Andreski (1968) and confirmed by Bullock and

Firebaugh (1990) and Scanlan and Jenkins (2001) are again reaffirmed. For example, labor- intensive militarization therefore can be very beneficial as opposed to capital-intensive militarization which appears to be more of a burden (Scanlan and Jenkins 2001). In addition, those societies that are able to integrate citizens from diverse backgrounds into the military

institution in addition to providing training for a portion of the population that otherwise may not

218 receive such benefits has positive developmental spinoffs that trickle down to improve the well­ being of society. Furthermore, numerous other development spinoffs such as infrastructural development in the form of roads, bridges, and public works projects such as hospitals, air-strips, and port facilities may evolve out of increasing military participation as may governmental programs such as education and training programs as noted, but also public welfare expenditures

in the form of military pensions and the benefits to modernization associated with the military

institution's ability to produce a cosmopolitan and "modem" population. These effects are

especially relevant to the least industrialized countries in the developing world where the

military may be the only stable, modem institution. This has been the case historically in

addition to having much relevance to contemporary political, social, and economic change

(Downing 1992, Huntington 1968, Trimberger 1978).

In this regard the military participation ratio is probably more aptly considered a

modernization variable than military famine in that it supports arguments more closely akin to

the former perspective thus contributing to "military modernization" in the same fashion as arms

production as a proxy for high tech industry. The same could be said for other military famine

components as well. The negative effects of the military spending and arms import burdens may

in fact also be modernization processes. Evidence for this exists in these terms are closely

associated with other modernization variables, including economic growth. Thus, as with

democratization these could be more "policy-based" forms of modernization except they have a

negative impact in that they are poor policy pursuits for strapped economies in less industrialized

societies. Similarly, effects of civil war, military instability and even military repression could

be interpreted using modernization arguments in that each is a "primitive" breakdown in the

219 military institution that is supposed to be a symbol of steadiness and modernity. This once again reinforces the notion that military famine ideas, though critical to consider, are certainly not a distinct theory but instead an important variant of more established perspectives.

However, this is not to say that consideration of a military famine as a thematic in food security studies is not important. In fact, this perspective is an essential consideration in that it brings attention to the power dynamics akin to militarization and militarism pertinent to hunger

(see Scanlan and Jenkins 2001). Thui'., because of the centrality of troop size and strength to institutionalization of the military in society, for example, I consider military participation ratio in the context of the military famine perspective along with other predictors which may in fact have modernization or other theoretical links. In this regard discussion of "military famines" is given a place in standard development debates, drawing links to the more traditional theoretical perspectives while acknowledging the substantive importance of considering its contributions to explaining the food security dynamics of less industrialized societies.

Ethnic antagonisms perspectives. Extending the discussion of the military famine perspective into an additional burden on food security in less industrialized societies, Table 7.1 also reveals that ethnic antagonisms are another important predictor of food security in both its availability and access forms. In this regard, ethnic antagonisms inhibit processes associated with development and modernization that would improve productivity and therefore overall food supply while at the same time presents barriers in access for certain at-risk groups in society. In this regard it is interesting to note that the effects ethic antagonisms have on food security in less industrialized societies depends on which aspect of ethnicity one is considering.

220 In the combined equations ethnic heterogeneity is most proximate to dietary energy and protein supply, while ethnic competition and ethnic political discrimination have the greatest relevance to hunger in the total population and child hunger respectively. Thus, not only are ethnic antagonisms important, but consideration of multiple forms is essential in that general ethnic differences that inhibit societal cohesiveness are detrimental to processes that improve overall food availability. In this regard heterogeneity appears to block growth in food supply, or at least hinder progress in this area. On the other hand, active discrimination or competition between groups as indicated by ethnic competition or ethnic political discrimination creates barriers in food distribution channels in less industrialized societies. From these findings, then the importance of stratification and political conflict become clearer with regard to understanding food security.

In addition, there is evidence of the need for examining not only multiple components of

food security but also different aspects of the various theories as well, for they may separately

explain its different parts. In addition, ethnicity and the consideration of minorities at risk is

important in that barriers and inequality on this front are likely to spillover to barriers on others

as well. For example, linking to the women in development perspective noted above, the

prevalence of ethnic political discrimination washed out the effects of non-agricultural female

labor force participation in the combined child hunger equations. Thus, discrimination toward

one group is likely to explain discrimination on another as well. Furthermore, there are also

likely to be links between ethnic antagonisms with other perspectives, including military famines

as in the link between civil wars and the prevalence of genocide/politicide in addition to ties to

rural-urban disarticulation and the plight of the rural peasantry and indigenous groups living in

221 the hinterlands that are also linked to an ethnicity. Thus, many considerations regarding ethnic antagonisms and their importance to food security should be examined.

The globalization imperative. Lastly with regard to considering the contributions of each of the various perspectives, it is also important to denote the impact of globalization on food security in less industrialized societies. As Table 7.1 reveals, globalization improves food security, but only with regard to the availability component Thus, globalization improves overall supply, but it does nothing to explain a trickle down to food security in that how the supply is distributed or contributes to reducing hunger cannot be accounted for by globalization.

Imported food is thus most likely advantageous only to those countries that are

economically able to aiford purchases in the global market, and also has limits to how it "trickles

down" within countries. Thus, as Barkin et al note (1990: 111), governments import food at

higher prices than what could be grown domestically or without the impact of fluctuating foreign

exchange rates, leaving a great portion of the population unable to afford food that they could

produce themselves if subsistence agriculture was still supported as it was prior to the post-

World War H economic transformation. Globalization is far-reaching and may actually increase

the amount of food available, but its benefits are not shared equally by different portions of the

population as evidenced here with its non-effect on undemutrition. Care must be taken to not be

overly enthusiastic about the positive effect of food imports on availability, for it is clear that

they do not alleviate the inequalities that result in portions of the population being hungry.

Although the food import ratio is more proximate a predictor of food security as

indicated by its presence in the combined equations, trade openness is also an important

globalization consideration in the simpler theoretical equations. Furthermore, openness is

222 mediated by economic growth in these equations, indicating the importance of globalization to modernization and development. With regard to food security, then, it seems that globalization is beneficial in that there are only significant effects in this regard. Such a finding goes against claims from the dependency perspective which would be skeptical of the benefits of liberalism and comparative advantage policies that are essential to examining core-periphery interaction in the global marketplace. Thus, what should be critically examined from this perspective is not so much how to keep global economic processes from occurring but instead exploring how to make the benefits more distributive so that the advantages of a global economic system can trickle down to improve food security access for all.

Economic growth. As Table 7.1 reveals, there are mixed findings regarding the impact of economic growth on food security. As results from each of the empirical chapters revealed, economic growth is significant in base equations controlling only for level of economic development and the lagged dependent variable. In addition, it is significant only in the combined equation for child hunger, thus indicating a trickle down to improve human welfare while also being an important consideration for its mediating effects on certain independent variables such as foreign capital penetration or human capital formation in the form of secondary schooling ratios.

Economic growth is significant in the combined models for hunger in the total population only when removing the control for growth in dietary energy supply. Thus, it appears that the effects of economic growth on hunger in the total population are mediated through its impact on change in dietary energy supply. In this sense there is some association between these terms that does not appear in the final equations for dietary energy and protein supply, perhaps

223 because the other independent variables are also associated with economic growth. This should not be surprising in that development studies traditionally examine economic growth. In this regard the non-effects of economic growth should not be interpreted as it being irrelevant to food security but instead that its effects are captured by other variables.

Food stipply and hunger. Lastly with regard to Table 7.1 there are also mixed effects of growth in dietary energy supply on measures of food access in that growth in food availability reduces hunger in the total population but does not improve child hunger.^ This is an important consideration with regard to Sen’s (1981) entitlement perspective and links between food availability and access. The results here indicate that growth in food supplies that have resulted in a surplus are no guarantee that the entire population will benefit. If child hunger levels are a good proxy for more general problems in food access (Kelly 1992) associated with ethnicity, gender, or rural-urban inequality, then hunger studies must focus further on the important distributive component.

Food supply remains an important consideration, however, in that unless there are new ways to increase agricultural productivity and yields while reducing waste so as to enable availability to continually keep up with expanding population growth questions of distribution of existing supplies will become increasingly problematic as scarcity becomes more prevalent.

Claims from Sen and those that note that availability is not the important question with regard to food entitlements can only make that claim in times of plenty. Given the volatility of markets

^ In addition, because dietary energy supply is utilized to construct the measure for hunger in the total population, it may be that its effect is due to this. Thus, even where it appears to be beneficial it actually may not be, further reinforcing important entitlement arguments claiming that the examination of food supply is necessary but not sufficient to understanding hunger.

224 and the complexities of globalization, continuing population growth, and the temperament of the natural environment and its links to hunger, this is certainly no guarantee.

To tie these findings together, it is important to note that there are numerous theoretical perspectives and important controls to consider with regard to their importance in explaining food security. Unless one incorporates a variety of perspectives it will not be known which

explanations are most proximate to understanding the value of these different and sometimes

divergent, sometimes complementary and overlapping points of view.

In sum, sociology has multiple lenses at its disposal and is therefore particularly well

suited to explore the complexities that food security in less industrialized societies presents.

Although it is not certain that I am actually examining actual "theories" in this analysis but

instead what are more aptly considered thematics, the various perspectives are important grounds

to test sociology’s contributions to understanding food security. More firmly-grounded theory

and actual critical tests with regard to food security will come, and this analysis is an important

beginning on this front. I continue to explore these dynamics below, elaborating on the

contributions of these findings with regard to broader notions of food security and human well­

being.

Discussion

In this section I expand upon the above findings, moving from discussion of not just

specific perspectives on development but the broader relevance of food security in less

industrialized societies. I highlight the most important major themes in this analysis, most

notably the significance of stratification and inequality in food security outcomes and the

importance of considering the vulnerability of at-risk groups with regard to himger in these

225 societies. Furthermore, I expand upon the significance of this analysis, placing the findings I present here in a the larger body of literature on globalization, hunger, and social change. In doing this I link the question of hunger to more philosophical realms in discussion of democratization and the right to food security, structural violence, and poverty.

Major themes. Several major themes arise from this analysis and in this section I elaborate on each of these. I first expand upon the debate between modernization and dependency perspectives on development and their importance to the food security dynamic, emphasizing the need for the application of a broader theoretical lens. I follow this by elaborating on the significance of stratification and inequality within and between countries including the need to consider the position of women, children, the rural poor, and at-risk minorities. In doing this I establish a greater role for sociology in an important though neglected area of study. It is essential that what is largely a social process be examined by methods and theoretical perspectives applicable to deciphering these dynamics.

It is clear in this analysis that modernization is essential for development and food security well-being. It is only logical that a country with a higher level of economic development and a more technologically advanced economy, an educated citizenry and a democratic polity is better-suited to address the human development needs of its population.

Modernization means capital investment, economic growth, and the sophistication and strategic management of society important for addressing these important needs.

It is perhaps true that for less industrialized societies to improve their food security situation they must indeed "get modem" and if this is the case then one must consider how this is going to be possible, if ever. Thus, the dependency perspective raises the question as to whether

226 the "development of underdevelopment" (Frank 1968) is a permanent fixture for developing societies that relegates them to a ceaseless existence in the periphery. Dependency theory challenges whether Rostow*s "take-off’ (1964) is possible given the state of affairs of less industrial societies and their position of wealth and poverty relative to the developed world. A development debate that is decades old still continue, and becomes even more salient in the present expansion of globalization in which the gap between rich and poor countries continues to widen (United Nations Development Programme 1999). Modernization theory will continue to make claims regarding the necessity of transition from tradition to modernity and the dependency perspective will continue to ask questions and challenge the assumptions that the theory makes.

Concerns regarding food security are no different and in fact become more and more important as notions of human security and basic needs consideration take a firmer hold on the world as it enters its second decade of the post-Cold War era. However, the development debate and the shift in attention to a focus on globalization indicate that modernization and dependency perspectives remain important but are not enough to explain the complexities of food security in less industrialized societies. Not only must there be increased attention given to globalization perspectives and the positive and negative impacts of increased cross-border interaction and its links to food security, there must also be an increased understanding and application of additional perspectives to build upon the foundations that modernization and dependency theories have established. Food security demands that researchers and policymakers consider the relevance of urbanization, neo-Malthusian, techno-ecology, women in development, military

227 famine, and ethnie antagonisms perspectives to fill gaps that these theories have left open to understanding this issue and its place in less industrialized societies..

This research should make clear the importance of entertaining a number of perspectives and examining the multiple components of food security in a variety of ways. No single theory can adequately explain the dynamics of hunger. Sociology therefore must utilize the tools at its disposal to address the reality the macro-structural phenomena contributing to food insecurity.

In this regard the links between each of the important perspectives examined in this analysis should be clearly drawn to indicate their complementary nature and potential for integration and synthesis.

A key area of particular importance to sociology which can provide much mileage with regard to understanding food security change is the analysis of social stratification. Important questions that form the core of sociological understanding thus caimot only be applied to examining questions on human well-being such as hunger and but also related matters akin to education, employment, health, mortality and numerous other concerns regarding inequality that sociologists examine. The structured inequalities that exist within and between countries are integral to shaping food security in less industrialized societies. In this regard, the shift in focus from food availability concerns to questions of food access and distribution will emphasize what is most pertinent and extend calls by Sen (1981) and his colleagues (Drèze and Sen 1989, Drèze et al 1995) to examine the prevalence of famine in times of plenty. This shift will entail the consideration of root determinants of inequality linked to power differentials in economic, political, and social realms. In this analysis consideration has been given to such inequalities as the vulnerability of children, and the importance of gender, ethnicity, and the rural poor each of

228 which in many ways is powerless to the various forces of social change. Using both direct and indirect measures and applying the various theoretical perspectives, findings reveal that each of these groups merits examination with regard to their food security well-being.

In contemporary world societies childhood, ethnicity, gender or where one lives should not matter with regard to a necessity as basic for human survival as food. More specifically, in this day and age those in rural environments should be able to aiford the food they produce, or at least use the wages they earn to provide sustenance just as mothers should not have to choose which child eats first, or how various ethnic groups are to confront survival of the most basic sort. This is not the case in numerous less industrialized societies in the many comers of the globe. Numerous barriers block food access to such at-risk groups in these countries. Whether it is the prevalence of genocide/politicide, ethnic competition or discrimination, or limited access to non-traditional employment for women as has been found in this analysis, the structural condition of inequality prevents the distribution of available food from reaching all of those in need.

At the root of the powerlessness that less industrialized societies and such groups that live within them face is their poverty. Although as alluded at numerous points in this analysis that absolute poverty indicators for a large sample of developing countries is not available to provide a thorough analysis, models containing a sub-sample of countries indicate that this is indeed the most important consideration with regard to food access in these societies.

Stratification in its many forms can often be boiled down to its economic roots, and in doing so with regard to food security it becomes clear that hunger is just as much an economic, political.

229 and social condition as it is a physical one. Understanding hunger must first and foremost involve grasping the complexities of poverty and I turn to this below.

In addition to the important social stratification considerations, food security also is a key consideration with regard other core areas of sociology, most notably culture, institutional analysis, and political economy perspectives. Though not explicitly stated as yet, this research and future sociological analysis of food security has relevance to these areas in a number of ways. For example, patterns and types of food consumption are cultural in many ways, and thus determined by historical and traditional practices among the earth's peoples and becomes an increasingly important consideration with the growing influence of globalization in the contemporary world. Culture in the presence of hunger is important in that it may provide important explanation for patterns that persist to the dismay of outsiders to that culture.

Probably the best example would be Western ignorance regarding India's "sacred cow" and how citizens in a country with over a billion people and massive poverty and hunger can refuse to consume beef, neglecting to consider the cultural importance and economic contributions of the animal.

Institutions and formal organizations are and will continue to be of interest in this area of research. In this analysis I have touched upon the economy, education, and the state in addition to giving attention to the role of the military in less industrialized societies. The institutional role of the media, governmental, and non-govemmental organizations, and religion can also serve as important areas of focus with regard to food security. Famine, for example, often appears only through the lens of the television camera in times of drought or disaster, though in reality it is a way of life for a large portion of the world's citizens.

230 Lastly, political economy perspectives on food security have been woven throughout this analysis and is particularly important with regard to the structured inequalities that determine hunger. My treatment of globalization, modernization, and dependency theories in addition to consideration of factors such as women's roles in the economy, ethnic barriers to development, and international processes such as food assistance programs or the arms trade all have important political economy links. Furthermore, less obvious approaches such as techno-ecological and neo-Malthusian perspectives also have relevance, for demographic and technological components of social change have important consequences for the political economy of food.

My exploring these links, the political and economic components of food security become further entwined with the social determinants of hunger thus further emphasizing the importance of sociology.

Food security, globalization, and poverty. Globalization is not going to disappear any time soon, nor will its impacts and links with poverty and food security. For this reason it is imperative to consider this concept in more detail one last time in this analysis, particularly for its links to poverty and global inequality. Recalling from the findings that the food import ratio as a measure of globalization improved food availability but not access in the combined model sequence implies that food importing only benefits those countries that are economically able to do so. In addition to this, it does not appear to "trickle down" where it is most needed. Thus, pointing to Barkin (1990:111) it is possible that governments import food at higher prices than what could be grown domestically or without the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rates, leaving a great portion of the population unable to afford food that they could produce themselves if subsistence agriculture was still supported as this analysis also has shown.

231 Globalization is far-reaching and may actually increase the amount of food available in less industrialized societies, but its benefits are not equally shared by different portions of the population as evidenced here by its "non-effect" in the combined equation sequence for hunger in the total population and child hunger. Care must be taken to not be overly enthusiastic about its positive effects then, for it is clear that globalization does not alleviate the inequalities that result in portions of the population being hungry.

Therefore, if globalization is bringing food, or perhaps more importantly jobs to people in less industrialized societies who need them, its effects on improving the distribution component of food security will perhaps have to wait a generation or two. Until this process contributes to increased standard of living that enables large numbers of people to escape absolute poverty hunger will remain at the forefront of their misery.

Neo-Malthusianism and the continuing relevance o f supply? Because of the novelty and importance of the distributive component of food security and its importance to social stratification I have centered the discussion of findings and conclusions around this theme. This should not be surprising given the limited explanatory ability of the neo-Malthusian perspective in the combined model sequences for each dependent variable in which there is consistent evidence that the threats from population are associated with other patterns, most notably economic development, modernization, and techno-ecology theory. However, just because this perspective has limited impact in this analysis, warnings regarding population pressure and food supply should not go unignored.

Food security remains a concern for numerous cases, but as this analysis has shown, at the cross-national level developing countries have benefitted from improving food security

232 trends between 1970 to 1990. However, this only confirms what we already knew from experiencing these decades and these findings are not guaranteed to continue in the future.

Population pressure shall and new ways of addressing it will thus continue to demand attention.

As Homer-Dixon (1995) notes, meeting such challenges in the future will require great ingenuity and management of resources. But, such ingenuity may be lacking where it is most needed: the developing world. If food security is to be maintained, technological development must continue to improve so the philosophy of "food for all" proclaimed at the 1996 World Food Summit in

Rome (Committee on World Food Security 1996) and the goals of cutting the world's hungry population in half (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations 1999) can be accomplished . In the spirit of the Rome Declaration, such needs should be pursued globally so as to eliminate an "ingenuity gap" (Homer-Dixon 1995) between the North and South that could further exacerbate differences in food security and the quality of life of the world's peoples.

In this regard there must be an effort to draw links between globalization and technology confronting the strains from population pressure and environmental scarcity and the consequences from failing to do so such as war and resulting mass movements of individuals.

This analysis has shown there to be much promise in explaining problems in food distribution using the "military famine" thesis (Cheatham 1994; Macrae and Zwi 1994) with the specific food security consequences of armed conflict being well documented (see Lappé et al 1998). When conflicts arise from environmental scarcities (see Homer-Dixon 1999; Homer-Dixon and Blitt

1998) they have an exacerbating effect on already limited resources. The potential for violence and unrest from future environmental scarcity and the failure to pursue a program of global ingenuity that does not divide the North and South is great thus reinforcing arguments for the

233 integration of theory that encompasses the dynamics of eco-systems and their overlap with human activity and social processes (Harper 1996; Homer-Dixon 1995).

Examining food supply should therefore continue in stride, for it is the foundation of global food security. As findings in this analysis have shown there are a variety of contributing factors related to modernization and technological adaptation that work with regard to maintaining sufficient food supplies in less industrialized societies. It is only with continued vigilance on this front that the basic supply question may remain "unimportant" in that entitlement may remain concerned with the classic question of social stratification of not "how much" food, but how is it distributed. In sum, one should not be complacent with food supply surplus, but instead consider this a luxury that gives researchers the freedom to consider questions of distribution apart from the crisis of scarcity.

Food security, democratization, and the philosophical realm. Considering food security at a more abstract level as a theoretical construct, one can see its important links to both classical treatments of famine that examine the economic "entitlement" (Sen 1981; Drèze and Sen 1981;

Drèze, Sen, and Hussain 1995) and human rights (George 1986; Kutzner 1991; Lappé et al 1998) components of hunger as well as more philosophical treatments of hunger as is the case with those concerned with "structural violence" and the ethics of mass starvation (Galtung 1969,

1990; Dower 1998; O'Neill and Taye 1998). Links between food security, structural violence, and famine need to be elaborated with regard to the above findings and their importance with regard to food availability and even more so access.

The importance of human well-being and the rights associated with this has given credence to food security being considered an essential human right. Everyone, everywhere

234 requires a daily minimum amount of food and for this reason the globalization of food security concerns becomes increasingly prevalent. Food security therefore has special universal importance with regard to human development considerations essential to health and survival.

For this reason there has been much discussion regarding food as a human right (George 1986;

Kutzner 1991 ; Lappé et al 1998) that authors claim should not be denied to any of the world's citizens. As Article 25 of the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights (10

December 1948) claims "Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself (sic) and of his (sic) family including food ..." (Donnelly 1993:168).

Thus, if the formation of the United Nations and new forms of global governance following

World War II can be considered the early stages of the modem state of globalization, then food security would seemingly benefit from such increased interstate interaction and dependence.

Thus, if globalization means the spread of new freedoms and the extension of rights and privileges of global citizenship across borders of all kinds, then by all means its links to food security should become clear.

Of course, proclamations are one thing, while practice is quite another thus bringing to light the difficulty and multitude of interpretations of various universal directives. As this analysis has shown there are certainly gaps that exist between signatories of various human rights conventions and their ability to carry out those claims in reality. It is this reality which needs monitoring so as to check the ability of the global community to live up to its commitments to human well-being.

Findings in this analysis revealing the importance of growth in democratization to food security reinforce the pertinence of human rights conventions and entitlements with regard to

235 hunger and development. The democratization effects on reducing child hunger is an essential consideration that has important links to ethnic and gender stratification within less

industrialized societies as well as gaps in development that exist between them. Whether it is due to internal policy practices of rights-oriented, redistributionist perspectives of democratizing states, economic growth associated with free market liberalism, geo-political rewards from being a democracy (as opposed to "sanctions" akin to being a rogue state), or some combination of these factors it is clear that those who are most vulnerable to food insecurity can benefit from the movement toward increased democracy. If current patterns persist with regard to the latest wave of democracy (see Huntington ; Markoff), then further progress with regard to food security in less industrialized societies is likely to continue.

Further extending the meaning of food security to perspectives on structural violence can further reinforce its usefulness as a concept, therefore emphasizing the macro-structural processes and conditions of society at its roots of interest to sociology. Galtung (1969) uses the term structural violence to indicate violence that occurs in a society to which any individual person cannot be directly linked. In other words, "the violence is built into the structure and shows up as unequal power and consequently as unequal life chances" (Galtung 1969:171).

Food security is certainly an important example of life chance opportunities, particularly given the emphasis upon distribution and access to food that is central to hunger. On this front, important concerns of social stratification and the differentiation, rank, and unequal rewards associated with it become clear giving important sociological credence to the concept of food security and its structural determinants.

236 Hunger and food security can provide an essential foundation to understanding structural violence, just as understanding structural violence can call attention to the need of theoretical understanding and analysis of hunger on food security. "If people are starving when this is objectively avoidable, then violence is committed regardless of whether there is a clear subject- action-object relation, as during a siege yesterday or no such clear relation, as in the way world

economic relations are organized today" (Galtung 1969:171). Later work by Galtung elaborates

on structural violence linking it to cultural processes and claims that violence can be viewed as

"avoidable insults to basic human needs" (1990:292). Galtung further cites four classes of basic

needs —survival, well-being, identity, and freedom— that when violated not only constitute

structural violence but also have key links to components of human security discussed above. In

this regard, failure to provide or maintain human security as discussed above is structural

violence in a variety of forms, including food insecurity.

Violence thus extends beyond that considered with regard to the military famine

perspective is an extension on each of the important theoretical perspectives considered in this

analysis. By applying sociological understanding of macro-structural determinants of human

well-being to Galtung's notion of structural violence and the consideration of human rights

perspectives, this analysis extends hunger beyond simply a topic of study and moves it to a new

level of sophistication akin to broader reaches of social change.

Directions for Future Research

Taking the situation of children and their well-being specifically, which I examine

directly as a dependent variable in this analysis, one sees that food security is not only relevant in

its present condition, but will remain as such in future generations. The well-being of a society

237 is best viewed through the eyes of its children who best indicate the path which it is most certain to travel. Unless shifts in policy toward a new development agenda in the era of globalization re-define global priorities numerous directions for future research that this analysis has inspired but left unanswered in its limitations will remain salient.

First and foremost on the agenda for future food security analysis should be the development of new and improved data, with expanded coverage. Data collection and quality has improved significantly over the last few decades and is surely to continue to improve so as to enable more precise measurement of complex constructs thus giving greater reliability and validity to cross-national research. Of most important consideration for food security are new dependent measures that more directly tap into questions of food access, and even food poverty and utilization that have been unexamined here. Even expansion of indirect measures such as the prevalence of low-birth weight babies and maternal mortality rates would be beneficial.

As for other needs, there is also room for improvement of data for the women and development and urbanization, namely constructs that respective to these theories capture a male-female tradeoff and inequality gap, more accurately account for "urban bias" and disarticulation. In addition, there is much room for improvement of data for the dependency perspective as well, particularly with regard to capturing inequality and absolute poverty across time as well as more accurately and thoroughly assessing foreign capital penetration across various sectors. Lastly, in keeping up with interests in globalization, new measures should be developed and applied so as to best capture this concept cross-nationally therefore enabling true tests of theories regarding its impact in contemporary world societies. One area of need is

clearer measurement of pressure from the International Monetary Fund that better captures debt

238 and refinancing that seems imperative to food security and development. In addition, clear measures to account for structural adjustment policies would further capture the globalization dynamic more clearly. The impact of globalization on food security and development more generally will remain increasingly important therefore making reasonable methodological assessment more imperative.

In addition there are several areas to which the above research could be extended so as to provide further contexts to examining the food security dynamic. Be it consideration of the world refugee crisis, detailed examination of food aid and assistance most notably its links to the international arms trade found important in this analysis, examination of hunger in developed societies where its roots in poverty and structural inequality become more clear, or finally links to food in the realm of social movements, most notably the hunger strike, are all vital considerations in further developing the important sociological contributions to understanding food security.

Conclusion

To sum up this analysis, it should be clear that food security is an important sociological consideration. Not only are there numerous applications of important theories of social change relevant to understanding himger, but the condition of stratification lies at the core of this issue.

Food security should therefore not be left to the agronomist, economist, or geographer but instead take a larger place in sociological research that can encompass a number of theoretical perspectives and integrate various disciplines so as to most accurately account for the complexities associated with food security change.

239 Industrialization, an educated population, technological innovation and diffusion, and democratization are just a few of the many beneficial components of food security as captured by modernization and techno-ecological perspectives. On the other hand, dependency on primary products exports, decapitalization, civil war, arms imports, gender discrimination, genocide/politicide, and rural urban disparity account for a few of the detrimental impacts on food security which the dependency, urbanization, women in development, military famine and ethnic antagonisms perspectives explain.

If the fate of the children discussed at the outset of this analysis is to be best understood it is imperative that one utilize all of the tools at one's disposal so as to correctly specify the structural determinants of the sources for the more than 840 Malathion people presently experiencing hunger around the world.

240 Dietary Energy Hunger in the Supply Protein Supply Total Population Child Hunger

Level of Economic N.S.* N.S. Beneficial N.S. Development

Modernization Beneficial Beneficial Beneficial Beneficial

Dependency Detrimental Detrimental Detrimental N.S.

Urbanization/Rural- N.S. N.S. Detrimental Detrimental Urban Inequality

Neo-Malthusian N.S. N.S. N.S. N.S.

Techno-Ecology Beneficial Beneficial N.S. N.S.

Women in N.S. N.S. N.S. Beneficial Development

Military Famine Detrimental Detrimental Detrimental Detrimental

Ethnic Antagonisms Detrimental Detrimental Detrimental Detrimental

Globalization Beneficial Beneficial N.S. N.S.

Economic Growth N.S. N.S. N.S.** Beneficial

Growth in Dietary - - Beneficial N.S. Energy Supply

*The designation "N.S" denotes that the perspective is not a significant predictor in the final, combined equation sequence which indicates closest proximity to explaining food security. However, it does not mean that simpler theoretical models for the perspective do not have predictive capabilities.

**Economic growth is significant when the control for growth in dietary energy supply is removed from the equation as Table S. 10 indicates. Thus, economic growth effects hunger in the total population but is mediated through food supply change.

Table 7.1: Summary of Most Proximate Theoretical Contributions to Final, Combined Model Sequence for Each Dependent Measure of Food Security.

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262 APPENDIX A:

VARIABLE DEFINITIONS, OPERATIONALIZATIONS, AND SOURCES

Dependent variables

Child Hunger. The prevalence of child hunger as indicated by the percentage of children under 5 who are undernourished, 1975,1990 (United Nations Development Programme 1994).

Dietary Energy Supply per Capita. First difference change in the five-year average for caloric availability per capita, circa 1970 to circa 1990, and lagged control, circa 1970 (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations 1994,1992,1972).

Hunger in the total Population. The estimated prevalence of undemutrition in the population for a three-year period determined by the proportion of the population failing to meet the minimum energy requirement specific to a country below which the average individual's consumption can be considered adequate, 1990-1992 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1996).

Protein Supply per Capita. First difference change in the five-year average for protein supply per capita, circa 1970 to circa 1990, and lagged control, circa 1970 (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations 1994,1992,1972).

Independent variables

Absolute Poverty. Two measures to account for absolute deprivation in society. First is the percentage of the population having a purchasing power parity of one dollar per day or less. Second is the percentage of the population with incomes below the poverty line designated for each particular country (United Nations Development Programme 1997).

Age Dependency Ratio. Average annual percentage change in age dependency as indicated by the proportion of the population under 15 to those over 15,1970-1990 (World Bank 1994).

Agricultural Density. Population pressure as indicated by the agricultural labor force divided by the surface area of arable land in square kilometers, 1970 (World Bank 1997).

263 Agricultitral Inequality. Multiplicative term for agricultural inequality as derived from the prevalence of land inequality weighted by the size of the agricultural labor force, circa 1970 (Muller and Seligson 1987).

Agricultural Labor Force. First difference change in the proportion of the total labor force in agriculture, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Agricultural Value-Added. Agricultural production as a proportion of gross domestic product, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Arms Import Burden. Average annual percentage change in the value of arms imports per Real GNP, 1970-1985 (Brzoska and Ohlson 1987).

Cash Crop Production. First difference change in the production of non-food agricultural commodities as indicated by the difference between agricultural and food production indices (relative to the base period 1989-1991=100), 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Civil War Presence. Dummy variable for the presence of civil war, coded yes=l, no=0, 1970- 1990 (Kidron and Smith 1983,1991; Project Ploughshares 1993-1998; Singer and Small 1993).

Commodity Concentration. Export dependency as indicated by the extent to which a country's economy is dominated by a single sector measured as a proportion of total exports, 1970 (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 1975-1988).

Debt Service Load. The sum of principal repayments and interest payments on total external debt as a proportion of total exports, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Decapitalization. The crowding of growth in domestic investment constructed as an interaction term between level of foreign capital penetration and growth in domestic investment, 1967-1985 (Bomschier and Chase-Dunn 1985; U.N. Conference on Trade and Development 1997, World Bank 1994).

Democratization. Change in index of democratization as a measure of political modernization, 1965-1985 (Gurr 1989).

Diffusion o f Green Revolution Technologies. First difference change in fertilizer consumption measured as the quantity of plant nutrients per hectare of arable land including nitrogenous, potash, and phosphate fertilizers, 1965-1985 (World Bank, 1997).

Disarticulation. Score for discrepancy between economic sectors in society with regard to their varied levels of development and productivity, 1978 (Stokes and Anderson 1990).

Distorted Growth. Growth in the prevalence of weak economic growth with limited abilities to benefit human welfare measured as an interaction term between level of foreign capital

264 penetration and economic growth, 1967-1985 (Bomschier and Chase-Dunn 1985; Summers and Heston 1991).

Domestic Investment. Compounded growth rate in real (1980 U.S. dollars) domestic investment over GDP, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1994).

Economic Development Level. Logged level of economic development based on real (1980 U.S. dollars) gross national product per capita, 1970 (Summers and Heston 1991).

Economic Dualism Heritage. Start point level in rural-urban disparity as indicated by the ratio of the percent non-agricultural GDP to percent agricultural GDP divided by the ratio of the percent of non-agricultural labor force to percent agricultural labor force as constructed by Bradshaw (1985, 1987), 1965 (World Bank 1997).

Economic Growth. Economic Growth as constructed by Jackman (1980) as the logged ratio of the start point and endpoint of real (1980 U.S. dollars) gross national product per capita, 1970- 1990 (Summers and Heston 1991).

Ethnic Competition. Two measures to capture the potential for ethnic conflict and violence in a society. First is the ethnic competition ratio, which is ratio of the second largest to largest ethnic groups in a society, 1970s Second is the ethnic differentiation potential associated with the number of ethnic groups in a society as a predictor of potential competition and conflict, 1970s (World Christian Encyclopedia 1982).

Ethnic Economic Discriminatio Intensity >. of ethnic economic discrimination based on summed proportion of minorities experiencing economic discrimination with high values meaning greater conflict on larger minority populations, 1980s (Gurr 1993).

Ethnic Heterogeneity. The proportion of the population that is comprised of multiple ethnic groups relative to the single group with the largest proportion of the population, circa 1980 (Sullivan 1991).

Ethnic Political Discrimination. Intensity of ethnic political discrimination based on summed proportion of minorities experiencing political discrimination in the form of neglect, social ostracism, and political exclusion or repression, with high values meaning high conflict on larger minority populations, 1980s (Gurr 1993).

Export Dependency in Primary Products. First difference change in the dependence on exports of primary products over total exports, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Female Labor Force Participation (non-agricultural). The level of non-agricultural female labor force participation as a proportion of the total female labor force, 1970-1990 (International Labour Office 1986).

265 Female Literacy. First Difference change in the percentage of women aged 15 and above who can, with understanding, read and write, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Female Schooling Ratio. Women's human capital formation as indicated by the first difference change score in secondary school enrollment indicated by the proportion of female enrollment to the total population of the age group that officially corresponds to that level of education, 1970- 1990 (World Bank 1999).

Foreign Capital Penetration. Total foreign stock in a country divided by total capital stock, 1967 (Bomschier and Chase-Dunn 1985; UJ^. Conference on Trade and Development 1997).

Foreign Capital Penetration in Agriculture. The ratio of foreign capital penetration in the agricultural sector to agriculture value-added, 1967 (Bomschier and Chase-Dunn 1985).

Gender-related Development Index. Measure for the inequality between women and men with regard to a country's achievement in basic human capabilities including education, income, and longevity, 1970-1992 (United Nations Development Programme 1995).

Gender Empowerment. Index for the measure of the economic, political, and professional participation of women in society including proportion of legislative seats, administrative and managerial positions, professional and technical positions, and the earned income share held by women, 1994 (United Nations Development Programme 1995).

Genocide/Politicide Presence. Dummy variable for the presence of genocide or politicide, coded yes=l no=0, (Fein 1993; Harff and Gurr 1989).

Globalization: Food Import Ratio. First difference change in the ratio of food imports to the total food supply, 1970-1990 (United Nations Development Programme 1994).

Globalization: Trade Openness. The first difference change score in the sum of total exports and imports in a country as a proportion of its gross domestic product, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1999).

High-tech Industry. The prevalence of military modernization and high-tech industry indicated by a dummy variable for a country’s capacity to produce arms coded yes=l, no=0, 1970-1990 (Brzoska 1989; Kidron and Smith 1983, 1991).

Human Poverty Index. Index of poverty comprised of three essential elements of human life: longevity, knowledge, and a decent standard of living, 1990 (United Nations Development Programme 1997).

Human Rights Violations. Change in the prevalence of human rights violations as reported by the U.S. State Department index, 1976-1990 (Poe 1995).

266 Industrialization Growth.. First difference change score in labor force in industry, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997,1999).

Infrastructural Development. Development of a food distribution system as indicated by the percentage of roads paved or sealed with asphalt or similar road-building materials, 1990 (World Bank 1997).

Intensification o f Farming. Increased agricultural output as indicated by the first difference change score in the ratio of agricultural value added to arable land, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Land Degradation. First difference change score in the prevalence of "waste land" between 1970 and 1990 which captures the percentage of land that is not farmable, including grassland not used for pasture, desert, and built-up areas (World Bank 1997).

Landlessness. Prosterman and Riedingeris (1982) estimates for the number of agricultural households without land as a proportion of the total labor force, circa 1970 (Muller and Seligson 1987).

Literacy. First difference change in the percentage of people aged 15 and above who can, with understanding, read and write, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1999).

Military Instability. Measure for military instability based on military morale and loyalty, coded utterly unstable=4, unstable=3, barely unstable=2, not wholly stable=l, stable=0,1980s (Kidron and Smith 1983,1991).

Military Participation Ratio. Change in the ratio of armed forces personnel per thousand in the labor force (population aged 15 to 64), 1970-1990 (U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency 1975,1985, 1994).

Military Regime. The intensity of military influence in politics based on summed years in which military or mixed regimes held power divided by the total number of years from 1970-1985 (Gurr 1989).

Military Repression. Dummy for the presence of military repression, coded yes=l, no=0, 1980s. (Kidron and Smith 1983,1991).

Military Spending Burden. Military spending burden on the economy measured as the first difference change in military expenditures over GNP, 1970-1990 (ACDA 1975,1985, 1994)

Modem Irrigation Systems. Percentage of arable land purposely provided with water, including land irrigated by controlled flooding, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

267 Move from Subsistence Apiculture. The increase in agricultural productivity measured as the first difference change in the ratio of agricultural value-added to total labor force in agriculture (World Bank 1997).

Plantation Apiculture. Permanent cropland as a proportion of total hectares of agricultural land (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2000).

Region. Dummy variables for global regions with Asia/Oceania, Latin America, North Africa and the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa each separately coded=l, with else=0 (United Nations Development Programme 1993).

Rural Population Growth Rate. Average annual percentage growth rate rural areas as defined by each country, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Rural-Urban Disparity. Change in the ratio of the percent non-agricultural GDP to percent agricultural GDP divided by the ratio of the percent of non-agricultural labor force to percent agricultural labor force as constructed by Bradshaw (1985, 1987), 1965-1985 (World Bank 1997).

Rural-Urban Mipation. The ratio of average annual percentage growth in urban population to rural population as a proxy for urban bias and preference (World Bank 1997).

Safe Water Access. First difference score in the percentage of the population with reasonable access to safe water supply, including treated surface water, or untreated but uncontaminated water such as that from springs and sanitary wells, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1999)

Human Capital Formation. A measure of the importance in the human capital formation in a nation as indicated by the first difference change score in secondary school enrollment measured as the ratio of total enrollment to the population of the age group that officially corresponds to that level of education, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

Techno-Ecological Heritage. Dummy variable for the pre-industrial technological and ecological heritage of a country coded as industrializing agrarian nations=l and industrializing horticultural natioos=0 (Lenski and Nolan 1984).

Total Fertility Rate. Average annual percentage increase in total fertility rate indicated by the average number of children bom to a woman during her lifetime, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1994)

Urban Population Growth Rate. Average annual percentage growth rate in population living in urban areas as defined by each country and reported to the United Nations, 1970-1990 (World Bank 1997).

268 War Presence. Dummy variable for the presence of general war (civil or interstate), coded yes=l, no=0,1970-1990 (Kidron and Smith 1983,1991; Project Ploughshares 1993-1998; Singer and Small 1993).

269 ' ' ~ (Ï) m (3y w (sy ' w m m) cmimm d'5) (»6) do) (20) (21) (ip (23) (24) (2 5 )= m ( 1 ) Age dependency ratio 1.00 (2) Agricultural density -.55 1.00 (3) Agricultural inequality .34 -.44 1.00 (4) Agricultural labor force .16 .52 -.50 1.00 (5) Arms import burden .12 -.06 .13 .11 1.00 (6) Child hunger, 1970 .27 .42 .26 .23 .07 1.00 (7) Child hunger. 1990 .39 .41 .34 .33 .18 .89 1.00 (8) Civil War presence .16 -.01 .07 .07 .24 .22 .35 1.00 (9) Decapitalization -.06 .05 -.00 -.03 -.10 .17 .13 .12 1.00 (10) Democratization -.21 -.05 -.01 -.21 -.08 -.19 -.32 -.20 .24 1.00 (11) Dietary energy supply. 1970 -.29 -.03 -.52 -.12 -.12 -.49 .46 -.21 -.05 -.04 1.00 (12) Dietary energy supply. 1990 -.42 .02 -.61 -.26 -.29 -.37 -.51 -.24 .18 .10 .54 1.00 (13) Dietary energy supply grow th-.28 .05 .20 -.22 -.25 -.06 -.23 -.12 .24 .15 -.15 .75 1.00 (14) Diffusion of Green Rev. -.36 .46 -.43 -.08 -.10 -.14 -.24 -.16 .10 .03 .42 .50 .29 1.00 (15) Disarticulation .21 -.00 .33 .25 .16 -.18 -.12 -.30 -.11 -.07 -.16 -.27 -.18 -.30 1.00 (16) Domestic investment -.32 .01 .57 -.12 -.12 .25 .17 .07 .57 .04 .28 .60 .46 .15 -.05 1.00 ^ (17) Economic development -.32 -.10 -.47 -.34 -.04 -.60 -.65 -.24 -.17 .16 .54 .61 .30 .35 -.12 -.14 1.00 ° (18) Economic dualism .39 -.13 .35 .12 .34 .18 .28 -.07 .01 -.11 -.21 -.42 -.31 -.24 .45 -.07 -.35 1.00 (19) Economic growth -.26 .04 -.39 -.08 -.25 -.11 -.25 -.03 .21 .20 .14 .20 .11 .33 -.23 .39 -.07 -.27 1.00 (20) Ethnic competition .18 -.18 .26 .06 .15 .00 .07 .01 -.05 -.12 -.06 -.26 -.26 -.25 .35 -.00 -.08 .13 -.14 1.00 (21) Ethnic heterogeneity .34 -.08 .21 .17 .19 .06 .12 .11 -.06 -.04 -.13 -.33 -.29 -.27 .28 -.09 -.23 .27 -.16 .60 1.00 (22) Ethnic political discrimination .22 -.07 -.09 .04 .03 .16 .26 - 02 .08 -.10 -.10 -.12 -.06 -.12 .09 .01 .11 .24 .14 .30 .15 1.00 (23) Export dependency .36 -.07 .14 .16 .26 .07 .12 .01 -.18 -.12 -.01 -.25 -.28 -.23 .23 -.32 -.08 .20 -.24 .30 .35 .25 1.00 (24) Female L.F. (non-agriculture)-.12 .10 -.20 -.08 .02 .09 -.02 .03 .22 -.04 .06 .02 -.02 .18 -.09 .36 -.04 -.05 .24 .01 .15 -.10 -.06 1.00 (25) Female schooling ratio .33 -.01 -.35 - .il .10 .22 .20 .19 .09 -.06 -.40 - .il .22 -.21 .09 .11 -.15 .18 -.05 .14 .23 -.00 -.13 -.17 1.00 (26) Foreign capital penetration -.00 -.08 .09 -.04 .09 -.16 -.il .00 -.74 -.19 -.00 -.24 -.26 -.il .15 -.26 .13 .04 -.25 .20 .21 .05 -.03 -.04 -.19 1.00

Appendix B: Correlation Matrix for Dependent and Independent Variables Used in Models (varying Ns). (continued next page) Appendix B, Continued.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (II) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) ;27) Foreign capital pen.: Agriculture -.09 -.15 .23 .13 .00 -.02 -.05 -.11 -.40 .13 .01 -.14 .13 -.11 .24 .05 .06 -.07 -.15 .09 .15 -.23 -.04 .03 -.12 .40 28) Gender development index -.46 -.22 -.44 -.20 -.27 -.15 -.40 -.26 .14 .26 .28 .60 .48 .28 -.02 .28 .51 -.30 .17 -.05 -.39 -.29 -.22 .18 -.36 .06 29) Genocide presence .22 .01 .20 .09 -.13 .24 .38 .58 .18 -.23 -.23 -.12 .03 -.12 -.19 .23 -.35 .09 .03 -.15 .01 .07 -.10 -.03 .22 .12 30) Globalization: Food imports .03 -.15 -.32 -.33 .02 -.12 -.15 -.00 .04 .13 -.07 .23 .31 .12 .09 .12 .11 .03 .03 -.10 .00 .11 -.02 -.09 .16 -.14 31) Globalization: Trade openness -.29 .33 -.39 -.17 -.13 -.12 -.18 -.10 .18 .01 .23 .40 .26 .63 -.21 .12 .22 -.24 .43 -.18 -.19 -.08 -.39 .39 -.03 -.03 32) High-tech industry -.28 .17 -.17 -.07 -.27 .14 .04 -.18 .29 .02 .14 .41 .38 .28 -.21 .49 .22 -.29 .10 -.10 -.28 -.12 -.25 .05 -.00 -.26 33) Human capital formation -.42 -.11 -.35 -.30 -.19 -.22 -.34 -.12 .14 -.05 .23 .53 .42 .29 -.19 .35 .43 -.31 .12 -.11 -.27 -.03 -.13 .01 -.03 -.13 34) Hunger in total population, 1970 .43 -.00 .34 .06 .19 .33 .34 .11 .11 -.06 -.79 -.45 .07 -.30 .09 -.03 -.43 .32 -.30 .06 .19 .26 .07 -.02 .27 -.08 35) Hunger in total population. 1990 .44 -.04 .42 .19 .36 .24 .42 .23 -.13 -.24 -.38 -.83 -.68 -.47 .15 -.27 -.50 .40 -.48 .33 .35 .33 .34 -.12 .09 .18 36) Industrialization -.63 -.22 -.44 -.39 -.15 -.35 -.46 -.il .14 -.05 .33 .55 .38 .55 -.38 .23 .43 -.38 .17 -.34 -.39 -.24 -.29 .41 -.36 -.07 37) Infrastructural development -.16 .03 -.53 -.27 -.13 .02 -.09 .08 .22 -.01 .19 .58 .53 .34 -.36 .32 .35 -.26 .34 -.09 -.13 .05 -.20 .13 .07 -.17 38) Intensification of farming -.13 .38 .05 -.10 -.02 -.02 -.09 .10 .08 -.04 .34 .29 .06 .79 -.21 .10 .30 -.06 .24 .04 .06 .00 -.11 .08 -.06 -.07 39) Military instability .35 -.09 .14 .04 .05 .07 .13 .21 -.04 .07 -.19 -.42 -.35 -.22 -.08 -.30 -.27 .18 -.00 .23 .46 .03 .27 -.03 .22 .13 to ■ o 40)M PR .03 .03 -.09 -.14 .08 -.11 -.15 .02 -.13 .10 .06 .19 .18 .09 -.11 -.31 .20 .06 -.19 -.19 -.17 .03 .12 -.31 .13 -.04 41) Military repression .07 -.10 .12 -.02 .19 .10 .14 .37 .03 -.05 -.12 -.17 -.11 -.14 -.35 .09 -.04 -.02 .08 .02 -.10 - 17 -.02 .19 -.01 -.14 42) Military spending burden .19 -.15 .06 -.33 .18 -.11 -.08 .06 -.14 .10 -.13 -.15 -.07 -.il .09 -.25 .16 .13 -.02 .02 .06 -.06 .11 -.17 .27 .06 43) Modem irrigation -.22 .32 -.06 -.08 -.il .54 .45 .04 .17 -.00 .06 .17 .16 .52 -.33 .30 -.13 -.09 .14 - 31 -.26 -.16 -.20 .14 .15 -.21 44) Move from subsistence agriculture .03 -.53 -.16 -.62 -.02 -.20 -.19 .15 .01 -.12 .18 .10 -.03 .07 -.30 .05 .29 .10 -.08 .11 .05 .07 -.07 -.08 .03 .00 45) Protein supply. 1970 -.10 -.06 -.35 -.13 -.32 -.44 -.40 -.17 -.03 -.08 .67 .38 .10 .50 -.13 -.03 .36 -.02 .14 -.20 -.30 .12 .01 .01 -.28 -.07 46) Protein supply. 1990 -.26 -.02 -.58 -.24 .34 -.38 -.49 -.28 .09 .02 .51 .84 .39 .34 -.24 .09 .54 -.28 .20 -.34 -.44 .05 -.16 .03 -.10 -.25 47) Rural pop. growth .40 .28 .57 .25 -.06 .34 .45 .13 .02 -.21 -.42 -.46 -.20 -.36 .27 -.07 -.57 .25 -.12 .17 .20 .18 .16 -.15 .29 -.04 48) Rural-urban disparity .07 .10 .36 .29 .23 .09 .06 -.16 .07 .04 -.07 -.17 -.14 -.il .40 -.05 -.13 -.08 .04 .05 -.06 -.10 .23 -.09 -.04 -.07 49) Rural-urban migration II -.04 .20 -.19 .09 .15 .03 -.02 -.18 .01 -.24 -.13 .03 -.15 .07 -.10 -.15 .20 -.04 .13 .20 .05 .02 .07 .19 .21 50) Techno-ecological heritage -.55 -.08 -.25 -.31 -.28 -.15 -.25 .04 .09 .34 .25 .56 .44 .42 -.54 .28 .33 -.55 .53 -.44 -.58 -.32 -.44 .12 -.18 -.20 51)Total fertility rate .72 -.03 .18 .20 .14 .18 .30 .03 -.06 -.23 -.21 -.47 -.39 -.28 .38 -.27 -.35 .46 -.20 .26 .46 .41 .43 -.03 .09 .12 52) War presence .23 -.03 -.07 .04 .16 .23 .33 .57 -.03 -.23 -.06 -.06 -.02 -.13 -.28 .02 -.09 -.11 -.01 -.03 .01 .10 .02 -.11 .22 .06

(continued next page) Appendix B, Continued

(27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) (33) (34) (35) (36) (37) (38) (39) (40) (41) (42) (43) (44) (45) (46) (47) (48) (49) (50) (51) (52) 27) Foreign capital pen.: 1.00 28) Gender development index .05 1.00 29) Genocide presence -.22 -.15 1.00 30) Globalization: Food imports -.03 .18 .02 1.00 31) Globalization: Openness .00 .30 -.06 .18 1.00 32) High-tech industry -.08 .31 .04 .02 .20 1.00 33) Human capital formation -.13 .43 -.12 .25 .11 .35 1.00 34) Hunger in total population, -.14 -.38 .12 .14 -.07 -.19 -.31 1.00 35) Hunger in total population, .05 -.63 .10 -.12 -.32 -.42 -.44 .52 1.00 36) Industrialization -.02 .41 -.16 .09 .33 .23 .42 -.37 -.53 1.00 7) Infrastructural development -.23 .49 .04 .34 .42 .27 .26 -.11 -.44 .28 1.00 38) Intensification of farming -.20 .24 -.08 -.09 .67 .13 .09 .00 .08 -.01 .34 1.00 39) Military instability -.02 -.23 .05 .00 -.27 -.43 -.24 .22 .41 -.30 -.22 .00 1.00 lO 0)M PR -.05 .13 .07 .15 -.08 -.13 -.04 -.01 -.06 .03 .04 .15 .03 1.00 ;y 1) Military repression -.21 -.26 .37 -.21 -.13 .03 .06 .43 .10 -.06 -.02 -.03 .07 -.12 1.00 42) Military spending burden -.05 .01 .06 .20 -.06 -.19 -.09 .19 .17 -.11 .02 -.03 .15 .50 .06 1.00 3) Modem irrigation -.15 -.02 .04 -.05 .07 .19 .15 -.13 -.22 .28 .14 -.22 -.13 .20 -.05 -.00 1.00 4) Move from subsistence -.04 -.02 .10 -.04 .05 -.15 .10 .06 .17 .10 .09 .35 .15 .11 .14 .10 -.27 1.00 S) Protein supply, 1970 -.24 .11 -.11 -.03 .23 -.03 .10 -.38 -.22 .19 .08 .30 -.29 .17 -.07 -.00 .03 .19 1.00 6) Protein supply, 1990 -.27 .48 -.10 .21 .35 .28 .39 -.30 -.67 .43 .45 .33 -.45 .22 -.16 -.06 .17 .14 .71 1.00 47) Rural pop. growth .11 -.32 .36 -.13 -.21 -.10 -.28 .31 .36 -.43 -.28 -.07 .17 -.06 -.06 -.04 -.06 -.08 -.07 -.25 1.00 8 ) Rural-urban disparity .01 -.05 -.18 -.18 -.22 -.07 -.06 .08 .09 -.32 -.06 -.15 .01 .01 -.15 -.01 .04 -.29 .01 -.09 .23 9) Rural-urban migration .15 -.00 -.08 .27 .20 -.16 -.12 .29 .06 -.02 -.08 .05 .02 .04 -.15 .12 -.07 .00 .01 -.04 -.01 50) Techno-ecological heritage -.09 .33 .04 -.05 .41 .42 .52 -.39 -.56 .64 .32 .02 -.33 .02 .33 -.16 .30 .08 .18 .46 -.39 51) Total fertility rate -.01 -.38 .18 .08 -.28 -.38 -.46 .42 .53 -.66 -.24 .01 .28 .00 -.18 .18 -.34 .04 -.05 -.28 .33 .13 .16 -.75 1.00 52) War presence -.10 -.13 .46 -.16 -.14 -.11 -.05 -.01 .14 -.21 .09 -.10 .03 .05 .38 .10 .04 .16 -.06 -.04 .05 -.16 -.20 .04 .11 1.00