Nordic Grid Development Plan 2012 Foreword
The Nordic transmission system operators (TSOs) have a long history of successful cooperation within grid development. Three common Nordic grid master plans have been developed in the last ten years in the context of Nordel, the previous cooperative organization for the Nordic TSOs.
Joint Nordic grid development is essential to support further development of an integrated Nordic electricity market, as well as increased capacity to other countries and integration of renewable energy sources (RES).
The Nordic co-operation on grid development is now taking place within the wider regional context provided by the regional groups North Sea and Baltic Sea of ENTSO-E, the European organization for TSOs, in addition to bilateral co-operation when required.
The Nordic Grid Development Plan 2012 is prepared as a response to the request from the Nordic Council of Ministers of October 25, 2010. The plan is prepared by Statnett, Svenska Kraftnät, Energinet.dk and Fingrid, and the Icelandic TSO Landsnet has provided input regarding the Icelandic grid. The plan presents the Nordic grid investment plans for the next ten years.
28. September 2012
Oslo Stockholm Copenhagen Helsinki
Statnett SF Svenska Kraftnät Energinet.dk Fingrid
Auke Lont Mikael Odenberg Peder Østermark Andreasen Jukka Ruusunen CEO CEO CEO CEO
LIST OF TABLES...... 2
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 3
2 INTRODUCTION ...... 8 2.1 ENTSO-E ...... 8 2.2 EXPECTATION OF THE 3RD LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE ON GRID PLANS ...... 9 2.3 EXPECTATIONS OF THE NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS ...... 9
3 MONITORING - STATUS OF PREVIOUS NORDIC PRIORITIZED GRID INVESTMENTS ...... 10 3.1 NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002 ...... 10 3.2 PRIORITY CROSS –SECTIONS 2004 ...... 11 3.3 NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 ...... 12 3.4 MARKET BASED ANALYSIS OF INTERCONNECTIONS BETWEEN NORDIC, BALTIC AND POLAND AREAS IN 2025 (2009) ...... 14 3.5 SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT – THREE SCENARIOS (2010) ...... 14 3.6 CURRENT STATUS ...... 15
4 DRIVERS FOR GRID INVESTMENT IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES ...... 17 4.1 PRESENT SITUATION ...... 17 4.2 DRIVERS OF SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ...... 19 4.2.1 MARKET INTEGRATION ...... 20 4.2.2 RES AND CONVENTIONAL GENERATION INTEGRATION ...... 20 4.2.3 SECURITY OF SUPPLY ...... 20 4.2.4 AGING TRANSMISSION ASSETS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ...... 21
5 SCENARIOS AND MARKET STUDY RESULTS ...... 21 5.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS ...... 21 5.2 REGIONAL MARKET STUDY RESULTS ...... 22 5.2.1 SIMULATED BALANCES AND NET FLOWS ...... 22 5.3 BULK POWER FLOWS IN 2020 ...... 26
6 FUTURE INVESTMENTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES ...... 28 6.1 CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING PROJECTS ...... 28 6.2 PROJECTS OF PAN EUROPEAN AND NORDIC SIGNIFICANCE ...... 28 6.2.1 MID-TERM (2012-2017) ...... 29 6.2.2 LONG TERM (2017-2022) ...... 32
7 NORTH SEA OFFSHORE GRID ...... 34 7.1 THE OFFSHORE GRID INITIATIVE ...... 35
8 ICELANDIC GRID ...... 35
9 TERMS/GLOSSARY ...... 38
10 REFERENCES ...... 39
Front page photo by: Pål Bentdal 2
List of Figures
FIGURE 1 MEDIUM TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E...... 6 FIGURE 2 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 7 FIGURE 3 ENTSO-E REGIONAL GROUPS FOR GRID PLANNING - NORDIC PARTICIPATION IN BALTIC SEA AND NORTH SEA GROUPS ...... 9 FIGURE 4 IDENTIFIED TRANSMISSION NEEDS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002 ...... 11 FIGURE 5 EXPECTED TRANSMISSION PATTERNS IN THE NORDIC GRID ...... 11 FIGURE 6 PROPOSED NORDIC GRID REINFORCEMENTS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 ...... 13 FIGURE 7 RECOMMENDED NEW INTERCOMMECTORS FROM 2009 ANALYSIS ...... 14 FIGURE 8 PRIORITIZED REINFORCEMENTS, SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT 2010 ...... 15 FIGURE 9 THE THREE SYNCHRONOUS SYSTEMS OF BALTIC SEA REGION, MAXIMUM CROSS BORDER CAPACITIES AND CROSS BORDER NET IMPORT CAPACITY OF EACH COUNTRY COMPARED TO COUNTRY'S WINTER PEAK LOAD IN YEAR 2012. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 17 FIGURE 10 CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 18 FIGURE 11 . GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES IN 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 18 FIGURE 12 MAP OF MAIN DRIVERS IN BALTIC SEA REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 19 FIGURE 13. ENERGY PRODUCED IN NORDIC REGION IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH 2020 GRID (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 23 FIGURE 14. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO EU2020 WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 24 FIGURE 15. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO B WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 24 FIGURE 16 DIFFERENCE IN NET FLOWS AND BALANCES WITH NUCLEAR PHASE OUT IN GERMANY WITH 2020 GRID IN SCENARIO EU2020 ( LEFT); IN SCENARIO B (RIGHT). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 25 FIGURE 17. BULK POWER FLOWS AND THE MARKET FLOWS IN MW RANGE FOR RGBS REGION IN 2020. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 26 FIGURE 18. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO CONTINENT. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 27 FIGURE 19. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO BALTIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 27 FIGURE 20 MID TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E...... 29 FIGURE 21 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...... 32 FIGURE 22 DEVELOPMENT OF THE GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2005-2012 ...... 35 FIGURE 23 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2012 – 2026...... 36
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 3.1 PRIORITIZED CONNECTIONS, PRIORITY PLAN 2004 ...... 12 TABLE 3.2 REINFORCEMENTS, NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 ...... 13 TABLE 3.3 CURRENT STATUS OF PROJECTS ...... 16
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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Nordic Transmission System Operators (TSOs) have a long history of cooperation in grid development in the context of NORDEL, the previous cooperative organisation for the Nordic TSOs. The Nordic power systems (with the exception of Iceland) are strongly connected and interdependent of each other, and hence close cooperation is essential to ensure a rational development of the system.
Several common Nordic grid studies and plans have been produced the last decade. In 2004 the Nordic TSOs agreed on five prioritized reinforcements in the Nordic system. Three of these reinforcements are now in operation, while the remaining two are under construction with expected commissioning in 2014. In 2008 three more projects were added to the Nordic Grid Master Plan. Proposed reinforcements from this plan are also on the way. Hence the common Nordic grid development has so far delivered important results.
This Nordic grid development plan describes the development of the interconnected Nordic system, including the grid development plans with the neighboring systems. The Nordic system is geographically large and the transmission capacity is limited due to long distances between production and consumption areas.
No new analysis has been performed as a basis for this Nordic grid development plan. The plan is founded on the analysis and studies done commonly in two regional groups under ENTSO-E where an even larger area has been the focus of the study, according to the regions defined within ENTSO-E. The results are shown for the Nordic area especially. Common market and grid analysis were performed and based on a number of scenarios and sensitivities. As such, this plan contains no new information compared to the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2012 package.
The Nordic power system is influenced by the development in the neighbouring systems, and a wider area needs to be taken into account in the grid planning. This is well taken care of within the context of the ENTSO-E regional groups, which include both the Nordic system and its neighbours.
Investment drivers
The main investment drivers for system development in the Nordic countries are
1. connection of new renewable and conventional generation units
2. increased market integration inside the Nordic system as well as on its borders
3. preservation of security of supply as power transfers increase
The further integration of the Nordic countries and connections between Nordic and Continental European countries will make the system more robust and accommodate the integration of large amount of wind power and other renewable energy sources within and around the Nordic countries, as well as providing balancing and storage for Continental Europe. 4
Investment needs
The Nordic electricity system is now connected via HVDC (high-voltage-direct current) links with the Continental Europe, Baltic states and Russia.
Increased grid capacity is an important prerequisite to integrate new generation, and hence to meet national targets for renewable generation by 2020. A substantial increase in generation is expected in the Nordic region by 2020, and could lead to an energy surplus in the region, if not met by increased demand. The main transmission direction is expected to be north-south in the Nordic Countries. Increased capacity to Continental Europe, UK, the Baltic States and Russia will be needed in order to utilize the renewable energy resources in the Nordic. The interconnectors cannot be studied separately however, but need to be combined to the analysis with the needed internal reinforcements. Lack of grid capacity would most probably lead to lower investments in renewable energy sources (RES) and hence failure to achieve RES targets.
Strengthening the existing grid between the hydropower dominated northern part and thermal and wind power dominated southern part is beneficial for other reasons too. The large hydro reservoirs in Norway and northern Sweden can be utilized in order to balance the changes in wind as well as the demand fluctuations. The hydropower system can work as storage for unregulated power to and from Continental Europe. The Continental power systems can absorb excess energy from the Nordic countries in wet years, and supply energy deficit in dry years. More interconnector capacity will therefore be beneficial for both parties.The interconnectors between the Nordic countries and the continental Europe are important also regarding the Security of Supply in the Nordic countries, as they help to manage the system with a lot of non-flexible generation (wind and nuclear).
Developments in Russia and between the Baltic states and central Europe affect the needs for transmission capacity in the Nordic region. It is one of the European priorities to connect the Baltic states better to the wider European energy networks.
Investments
As a response to the investment needs the Nordic TSO's present a number of projects which are considered having European significance. In addition there are national projects that are presented in the national development plans in more detail.
Most of the projects are already mentioned in previous plans, but there are some additional investments presented in this plan. The majority of the previously presented projects are on schedule, and the delays are mainly caused by time consuming permitting processes.
The plan shows grid investments both between the Nordic countries and between the Nordic countries and the neighboring systems the Baltic states, the Continental Europe, and even UK. 5
New connections between Nordic and Continental European countries are necessary and beneficial in order to handle the expected changes in generation portfolios in the Continental European countries and the Nordic countries, as well as the nuclear phase out plan of Germany.
A major challenge is that the grid development may not be in time if the RES targets are met as planned by 2020. Permit granting procedures can be long lasting, and may cause commissioning delays. If energy and climate objectives are to be achieved, it is of utmost importance to smoothen the permitting processes.
The focus of the studies has been the next ten years. Beyond the next ten years, especially the developments in the offshore wind production in the North Sea might play a role in meeting the renewable energy targets. Any benefits of an integrated offshore grid are expected to be most significant beyond 2020-2030.
The expected level of investments in this Nordic grid development plan for the next ten years are about 11 bill. Euros. All investments in national plans are not included in this number, only projects of European and/or Nordic significance.
In the Icelandic power system the consumption is doubled since 2005, and further increase is expected for the coming decade. Due to the system being small, the transmission development is highly driven by single projects in power intensive industry.
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FIGURE 1 MEDIUM TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION . SOURCE: ENTSO-E
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FIGURE 2 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
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2 INTRODUCTION The Nordic TSOs have for long cooperated in grid development and have produced several common grid plans during the past years in the context of NORDEL, the previous cooperative organisation for the Nordic TSOs.
• 2002: Nordic Grid Master Plan analyzing the bottlenecks
• 2004: Priority Cross Sectios defining the five prioritized projects
• 2008: Nordic Grid Master Plan; three new projects, analyzing the connections to the continent
• 2009 Multiregional plan together with Baltic, Polish and German TSO's
In 2009 when NORDEL was dissolved and the TSO cooperation in Europe was concentrated in the new ENTSO-E organization, the pan-European and regional grid development cooperation was also concentrated inside the new organization ENTSO-E. This gave the Nordic TSOs an important opportunity to cooperate in a wider regional context to ensure further integration of the Nordic countries with neighbouring countries.
In the ENTSO-E work two reports are already produced on grid development:
• 2010: pilot Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) with a common list of projects, also on regional level.
• 2012: TYNDP package consisting of both a pan-European document and regional plans, based on joint regional market- and grid analysis.
2.1 ENTSO-E
ENTSO-E was established on a voluntary basis on the 19th of December 2008 and became fully operational on the 1st of July 2009, in anticipation of the entry into force of the 3rd Legislative Package for the Internal Electricity Market (hereinafter the 3rd Package), which entered in to force 3 March 2011. This imposed a number of requirements on the European Electricity Industry in terms of regional co-operation. The purpose was to promote the development of the Electricity Infrastructure both within and between Member States, and looking at Cross-border Exchanges of Electricity between the Member States.
Today, 41 TSOs from 34 European countries are members of ENTSO-E. The working structure of the association consists of Working and Regional Groups, coordinated by four Committees (System Development, System Operations, Markets and Research & Development), supervised by a management Board and the Assembly of ENTSO-E, and supported by the Secretariat, the Legal and Regulatory Group, and Expert Groups.
Co-operation of the European TSOs both on the pan-European and regional level in order to undertake effective planning is the main requirement of the 3rd package, and therefore one of ENTSO-E's key purposes. In order to achieve this goal ENTSO-E has established 6 9
regional groups for grid planning and system development tasks. For the other tasks the regional groups are different from this.
Nordic TSO's belong to two of these Regional groups as presented in Figure 1.
NORTH SEA BALTIC SEA
FIGURE 3 ENTSO-E REGIONAL GROUPS FOR GRID PLANNING - NORDIC PARTICIPATION IN BALTIC SEA AND NORTH SEA GROUPS
2.2 EXPECTATION OF THE 3RD LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE ON GRID PLANS
The key requirement of the 3rd Package that forms the legislative driver for the “Ten Year Network Development Plan” suite of documents is Article 8.3(b) of The Regulation, whereby “The ENTSO for Electricity shall adopt: (b) a non-binding Community-wide network development plan, ...including a European generation adequacy outlook, every two years”. The 3rd package also includes a requirement to publish Regional Investment Plans every two years.
2.3 EXPECTATIONS OF THE NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
The Nordic Council of Ministers has requested a Nordic grid development plan to be provided every two years. The first Nordic biannual grid plan is to be presented on the Ministerial meeting of Nordic Energy ministers in the autumn 2012.
The basis for this document is the studies and analysis done in the Regional cooperation in the North Sea group and Baltic Sea group complemented with the National Plans of the TSO's where appropriate. 10
Iceland is not present in any of the Regional grid planning groups under ENTSO-E being separated from the other systems. Therefore Iceland is presented in a separate part of this plan, where developments in the Icelandic system are described.
3 MONITORING - STATUS OF PREVIOUS NORDIC PRIORITIZED GRID INVESTMENTS There has been a number of joint Nordic grid plans the last ten years. Together they have identified around ten interconnectors and reinforcements that are important for the development of the common Nordic and European electricity market. In the following we will give a short summary of the results from the different plans and an update of the current status of the reinforcements suggested.
3.1 NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002
This was the first joint Nordic Grid Master Plan building upon many years of Nordic cooperation in grid planning. The plan looked at the future transport patterns in the Nordic transmission network and identified a number of important cross-sections which were to be subject to more detailed analyses in future plans.
In the analysis for the plan in 2002 the foreseen future energy balance in the Nordic area for the time period of 2005 – 2010 was negative. In the years leading up to the report there had been an energy surplus but the trend was negative with increasing demand and decommissioning of old generation units and very few new plants taken into operation. The analysis indicated an energy shortage and increasing interdependency on trade with neighbouring regions and a need for energy import to the Nordic area. This identified two major predicted transmission patterns: in east – west direction through the area, from Russia through Finland and Sweden to Norway and possibly to the UK and north – south between Norway/Sweden and the Continent. From this, and with the experiences from the market situation and grid operations taken into account, the following transmission needs were brought forward as being important and a priority for further studies:
- An increase in the transmission capacity of the HVDC interconnection between western Denmark and southern Norway through the establishment of an additional interconnection should be considered. - Expansion through the establishment of an HVDC interconnection from southern Norway to eastern Denmark or southern Sweden should be considered. - An increase in the transmission capacity of the HVDC interconnection between western Denmark and central Sweden through the establishment of an additional interconnection should be considered. - An increase in the transmission capacity on the Hasle cross-section between eastern Norway and central Sweden should be considered. - An increase in the transmission capacity between central Sweden and central Norway should be considered. 11
- Any need for additional initiatives aimed at improving the transmission capacity on internal Swedish cross-sections between central Sweden and southern Sweden should be established.
This needs are illustrated in the below figure.
FIGURE 4 IDENTIFIED TRANSMISSION NEEDS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002
3.2 PRIORITY CROSS –SECTIONS 2004 The follow-up of the 2002 Nordic Grid Master Plan 2002 was presented in 2004 in the Priority cross-sections report. In the report an updated analysis of the predicted situation for 2010 was performed. The energy balance for the Nordic area looked more positive for 2010 than in the previous plan with the Nordic area roughly in balance between production and demand. Behind the assumption lay plans for new nuclear power in Finland as well as gas fired production in Norway and more wind power.
The analysis identified typical transmission pattern in the Nordic area. Several transmission constraints were expected in these transport channels.
FIGURE 5 EXPECTED TRANSMISSION PATTERNS IN THE NORDIC GRID 12
The report concludes that Nordel has identified five critical cross-sections that would be beneficial to reinforce. These are:
Earliest
Reinforcement Commissioning date
The Great Belt connection 2008
Cross-section 4 in Sweden 2010
Skagerrak between Norway and Denmark 2009
Fenno-Skan between Sweden and Finland 2010
Nea – Järpströmmen between Sweden and 2009 Norway
TABLE 3.1 PRIORITIZED CONNECTIONS, PRIORITY PLAN 2004
These five reinforcements were presented as a common Nordic reinforcement “package”, and the actual investments were to be handled bilaterally between the involved TSOs.
3.3 NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 A new Nordic Grid Master Plan was presented in 2008. It looked at the situation in the Nordic area and the capacity to neighbouring countries given that the reinforcement package from the previous plan was implemented. The analysis was made in a scenario representing 2015 with the reinforcements in operation. Possible further reinforcements were identified and tested for robustness in four scenarios representing different energy market developments for 2025. The scenarios covered a spread of Nordic energy balances from a large surplus to a substantial deficit.
Based on the analysis, Nordel recommended that the TSOs started the planning process for reinforcement of the following internal Nordic cross-sections. All of these reinforcements showed a positive benefit in all four future scenarios.
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Earliest Reinforcement Commissioning date
Sweden – southern Norway (Hasle cross-section) Prel. 2015
• Realised through the SouthWest link Sweden – Norway north-south axis Prel. 2013
• Realised through Ørskog –Fardal
Arctic region Prel. 2014
• Realised through Ofoten – Balsfjord – Hammerfest
TABLE 3.2 REINFORCEMENTS, NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 The analysis also showed high benefit for additional interconnectors between the Nordic area and neighbouring areas. However, since no external parties had been part of the study and no comprehensive analysis of internal reinforcements had been made, Nordel recommended that further studies should be made within the multiregional planning cooperation between Nordel, Baltso and Union for Coordination and Transport of Electricity (UCTE – the previous association for TSOs in continental Europe).
Previously proposed 1 Fenno-Skan II (Decided) 2011package 2 Great Belt (Decided) 2010 3 Nea - Järpströmmen (Decided) 2009 4 South Link (Decided) * 2014 8. 5 Skagerrak IV (Letter of Intent) Prel. 2014
Proposals for possible new reinforcements 6 Sweden - Norway (Southreinforcements) * SouthWest Link Prel. 2015 99. . 7 Sweden – Norway (North -South axis) Ørskog – Fardal Prel. 2013 8 Arctic region Prel. 2014 Ofoten – Balsfjord – Hammerfest
* Combined in the ”SouthWest Link” 3. Possible external reinforcements (Not prioritised) 7. Reinforcements requiring additional analysis 1.
9 Finland - Sweden
National reinforcements of importance to the Nordic grid 6. 5. Decided or planned 4. Under consideration 2.
FIGURE 6 PROPOSED NORDIC GRID REINFORCEMENTS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 14
3.4 MARKET BASED ANALYSIS OF INTERCONNECTIONS BETWEEN NORDIC, BALTIC AND POLAND AREAS IN 2025 (2009) An extended, multi-regional, study was performed 2008-2009 by TSOs from Nordel (Svenska Kraftnät and Fingrid), BALTSO (the organisation of TSO:s in the Baltic states) and Poland. The aim for this co-operation was the development of a coordinated extension plan of interconnections from the Baltic States to Poland and to the Nordel area in order to satisfy transmission needs between the regions. The study looked at the socioeconomic benefit of three specific interconnectors:
- Estonia – Finland - Lithuania – Poland - The Baltic states – Sweden The methodology was similar to the previous Nordel-study, using one base scenario for 2015 and three scenarios for 2025 and with benefits calculated from market model analysis.
The overall conclusion was that a solution with all three interconnections was the best solution. The results showed that the capacity provided by the interconnectors would be needed already in the scenario for 2015.
FIGURE 7 RECOMMENDED NEW INTERCOMMECTORS FROM 2009 ANALYSIS
3.5 SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT – THREE SCENARIOS (2010) Statnett and Svenska Kraftnät did a joint study in 2010 which focused in more detail on the common need for reinforcements in the national grids using three different scenarios. Two of these included high and respectively very high levels of additional renewable power generation in the Norwegian/Swedish system. The analysis confirmed the need for the reinforcements identified in the previous studies, with several of them already being 15
implemented, but also showed that further reinforcements are needed to accommodate large new volumes of renewable generation in northern parts of Norway and Sweden. There is a need for reinforcements in the northern and the central parts of the Norwegian/Swedish grid in a north-south direction, as well as reinforcements in the southern part in order to prepare for interconnections to other markets. This is illustrated below in figure 8.
Prioritized reinforcements First step (Scenario Recession)package 1. Nea-Järpströmmen (In operation) 2009 2. Fenno-Skan 2 (Decided) 2012 8. 3. South-West Link, South (Decided) 2013 4. Sima - Samnanger (Decided) 2013 10. 5. Ørskog - Fardal reinforcements 9. (License applied) 2014 11. 6. Southern Norway, 300420 kV 2014/17 7. Skagerrak 4 (Decided) 2014 18a. 12. 8. Ofoten – Balsfjord – Hammerfest 2015 18b 9. NordBalt (Decided) 2016 13. Prioritized reinforcements 31. Second step (Scenario Renewable+) 10. Reinforcements out of Ofoten (ch.7.3.4) 14. 20. 11. Svartisen - Nedre Røssåga 21. 57. 15. 12. Serial compensation, cross-section 1 13. Namsos – Trollheim/Orkdal 16. 12. 14. Klæbu – Aura, 300 420 kV 4 19. 15. Shunt compensation, cross-section 2 16. Øvre Vinstra - Fåberg, simplexduplex 6 17. South-West Link, West 17 6.. Possible further reinforcements 5. 3 Third step (Scenario 202020) 7 422. 18. a Nedre Røss.-Grundfors, 220420 kV 9 b.Nedre Røssåga–Klæbu, 300420 kV 19. Further reinforcements cross-section 2 2. 20. Further reinforcements Mid-Southern Norway 21. Aura-Fåberg, 300 420 kV 22. Further reinforcement cross-section 4
Possible interconnectors to continental markets
FIGURE 8 PRIORITIZED REINFORCEMENTS, SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT 2010
3.6 CURRENT STATUS The table below gives a summary of the status of the projects identified in the joint grid planning in the last 10 years. Three out of the first five reinforcements identified in the Priority cross-sections report from 2004 are in operation while the remaining two are under construction with expected commissioning dates in 2014. The reinforcements from the Nordic Grid Master Plan 2008 are also on the way as well as the interconnectors between the Baltic states and the Nordic area.
Reinforcement Identified in Description Commissioning date
Fenno-Skan 2 Priority cross – HVDC-link (800 MW) between In operation sections 2004 Finland and Sweden December 2011 16
Great Belt Priority cross – HVDC-link (600 MW) between In operation sections 2004 Jutland and Zealand in September 2010 Denmark
Nea – Priority cross – 420 kV AC line between In operation Järpströmmen sections 2004 Norway and Sweden September 2009
Cross-section 4 Priority cross – HVDC-link (2*720 MW) in Expected 2015 in Sweden sections 2004 southern Sweden. This is being developed as the (Under construction) southern part of the “SouthWestlink” in Sweden.
Skagerrak 4 Priority cross – HVDC-link (700 MW) Expected 2014 sections 2004 (Under construction)
Norway – Nordic Grid HVDC-link (2*720 MW) Expected 2018- Sweden Hasle Master Plan 2008 between Norway and Sweden. 2022 (timetable up cross-section This is being developed as the for revision) western part of the “SouthWestlink”.
Sweden – Nordic Grid 420 kV AC line between Expected 2015 Norway north- Master Plan 2008 Ørskog and Sogndal in south axis Norway (under construction)
Ørskog – Sogndal
Arctic region Nordic Grid 420 kV AC line between Expected Master Plan 2008 Ofoten – Balsfjord – Ofoten – Hammerfest in northern 2018-2019 Balsfjord – Norway Hammerfest
Estonia – Multiregional plan HVDC-link (650 MW) between Expected 2014 Finland 2009 Estonia and Finland (Under construction) Estlink 2
Baltic states – Multiregional plan HVDC-link (700 MW) between Expected 2015 - Sweden 2009 Lithuania and Sweden 2016
NordBalt
TABLE 3.3 CURRENT STATUS OF PROJECTS 17
4 DRIVERS FOR GRID INVESTMENT IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES
4.1 PRESENT SITUATION
The Nordic region comprises four countries in two separate synchronous systems: Eastern Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden comprise the Nordic synchronous system, and western Denmark is synchronously connected to the Continental European system. A total of nine subsea HVDC cables currently connect the Nordic system to the Continental system and one subsea HVDC cable connects the Baltic and Nordic systems. The Nordic system is connected to Russia via DC back-to-back station and some Russian generators are connected to the Nordic system by AC lines. The Nordic system is already a very integrated electricity market and as Figure 9 shows, the system also has high transfer capacities to neighboring countries compared to their maximum load.
FIGURE 9 THE THREE SYNCHRONOUS SYSTEMS OF BALTIC SEA REGION, MAXIMUM CROSS BORDER CAPACITIES AND CROSS BORDER NET IMPORT CAPACITY OF EACH COUNTRY COMPARED TO COUNTRY'S WINTER PEAK LOAD IN YEAR 2012. SOURCE: ENTSO-E The total yearly consumption in the Nordic region is approximately 390 TWh, excluding Iceland. The peak load is much higher in winter than in summer due to cold winters and large amounts of electric heating. Industry accounts for approximately 35% of the consumption. Main consumption areas are located in the southern parts of the Nordic system. Consumption and production of electricity in the Nordic countries are shown in Figures 16 and 17. 18
FIGURE 10 CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The Nordic power system is hydropower dominated with most of the hydropower plants located in Norway and northern Sweden. Denmark stands out with a high share of wind power. The energy constrained Nordic hydropower system has a very flat daily price structure compared to the capacity constrained thermal systems. The difference in energy balance of countries in the region between wet and dry year is significant. During an average year Finland has a large energy deficit while other countries in the region are more balanced. Finland is the only country in the region which is dependent on import during peak load hours. However, it has grid connections to four neighboring countries.
FIGURE 11 . GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES IN 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E 19
The main power flow is during the day from the hydropower plants in northern Scandinavia to the south all the way to Central Europe. During the night, flows are from Central Europe and Baltic States to Nordic countries.
4.2 DRIVERS OF SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
FIGURE 12 MAP OF MAIN DRIVERS IN BALTIC SEA REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The three main drivers for system development in the Nordic region are market integration, RES and conventional (nuclear and other thermal) generation integration and security of supply. These drivers are followed by the refurbishment of aging equipment and environmental issues. One of the biggest challenges with the main drivers is the considerable uncertainty with respect to generator investments. On the EU-Russian border there is also uncertainty about the market development in Russia. Until now the flow direction 20
has been steady from Russia without electricity price impact. But in the future, with more equal prices due to changes in generation portfolio, CO2 and fuel prices, there may be less import or even export when the electricity price is higher in Russia or low in Baltic Sea region. We can see this already today. In the south-east part of the region the integration of Baltic countries with the Nordic and European electricity market can also have an impact on the border transfer between Russia and the neighboring countries.
4.2.1 MARKET INTEGRATION
In the medium term, market integration is a key driver for grid investments in the Nordic region. More capacity is needed between the Baltic States and the European energy market to thoroughly integrate the Baltic States with the Nordic and European energy market. While a strong integration already exists between the Nordic countries, further integration is required in order to fully utilize the benefits of the countries’ diverse generation type portfolios. Bottle necks currently still exist between the hydropower dominated areas of Norway and northern Sweden and the thermal generation dominated areas of southern Finland, southern Sweden and Denmark.
Market integration is also a main driver in the long term. More capacity between Nordic and Continental Europe is vital to serve the expected change in transmission patterns due to the increase in wind power in Continental Europe and the change in power balance in Germany.
4.2.2 RES AND CONVENTIONAL GENERATION INTEGRATION
In the long term, integration of new renewable generation and new or upgraded nuclear power plants are important drivers of grid development in the Nordic region.
New wind power plants are planned to be built almost all around the region, but mainly concentrating on the coastal areas, offshore and the highlands in the northern part of the region. New small scale hydro generation is planned to be constructed particularly in Norway. The new wind and hydro generation in the northern areas which already have a high surplus of energy, requires a strengthening of north-south connections in Sweden, Norway and Finland.
In Finland there are plans and decisions-in-principle to build two new large nuclear power units, and in Sweden there are plans to replace and/or upgrade the existing aging nuclear power units.
4.2.3 SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Security of Supply is a driving force for grid investments in the Arctic region especially in the northern-most part of Norway due to increased consumption of the oil industry and new mining sites. The area has weak security of supply even today.
In the Nordic countries the capacity of wind generation is expected to rise, whilst conventional generation is expected to decrease, meaning that security of supply would become a critical issue without the planned transmission investments. 21
There are also some restricted areas in the region (Finland) where investments are needed to secure the supply especially when old assets are being dismantled.
4.2.4 AGING TRANSMISSION ASSETS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
Aging of the network equipment is a driver for investments in all the countries in the region. Joined together by a need for more capacity, the old assets are frequently replaced with equipment which increase the transfer capacity. More transmission capacity is achieved with minimal environmental impact when old assets are replaced with higher dimensioned equipment. As an example, in Norway the plan is to upgrade most of the 300 kV grid to 420 kV, providing a substantial increase in transfer capacity.
In Sweden and Denmark there is a political urge to minimize the use of overhead lines in urban areas which could lead to extensive funds with which to build new cable connections. The Danish cable action plan implies that new 132, 150 and 400 kV connections will be laid as underground cables, and that existing 132 and 150 kV grid will be under grounded.
5 SCENARIOS AND MARKET STUDY RESULTS In this chapter the scenarios used in the Nordic Grid Development Plan and the market simulation results are described. The chapter starts with a description of the two scenarios that are used within all the simulations. In addition, some additional specific scenarios are addressed. Finally the market simulation results and conclusions are presented.
The investments presented later in this report, is not based entirely on these model simulations. Most of them emerge from previous national or bilateral studies. The market simulations in this report however supports the need for these investments.
5.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS
Two different scenarios have been analysed for the whole region, both for the year 2020. They represent different possibilities of the main variables involved in the behaviour of the systems and thus, the markets.
A first scenario has been called the “EU 2020”, and represents a context in which all objectives of the European 20-20-20 objectives are met (20% of RES in the final energy, 20% reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG), and 20% increase in energy efficiency).
• Assumed efficiency measures result in low growth in demand in all countries.
• The prices of the main fuels, gas and coal, are taken from the reference scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its report World Energy Outlook. CO2 price is higher than IEA forecast, and Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) units are generally cheaper than coal plants, except for the coal with “must-run” conditions. 22
• The installation of power from RES is optimistic, and according to the National Renewable Energies Action Plans sent to the European Commission.
A second scenario has been called “Scenario B”, and represents bottom-up estimates of the TSOs, no matter if European objectives are globally met or not.
• Higher demand growth rates result in significantly higher demands all over the simulated region.
• The prices of CO2 emissions used are the central forecasts of the IEA, and result in lower variable generation cost for most coal plants in Europe (particular efficiencies of coal or CCGT plants sometimes invert this merit order)
• The installation of power from RES is the central forecast of the TSOs, and is generally (but not always) lower than the national targets.
In addition to these two scenarios a sensitivity analysis “Nuclear Phase Out (NPO)” was added. In this analysis part of the nuclear units in Germany will be shut down (the total phase out is expected for 2022).
A more detailed description of scenarios and the history can be found in the ENTSO-E Ten Years Network Development Plan 2012.
5.2 REGIONAL MARKET STUDY RESULTS
While reaching for EU 2020 targets, the Nordic countries are expected to become a surplus area. New investments in interconnectors between the countries will be beneficial to utilize this surplus. New domestic reinforcements will also be necessary, to be able to supply the new interconnectors and avoid bottlenecks with negative impacts on the obtainable electricity market benefit. The proposed grid investments and the Nordic power surplus will result in an increased north-south flow. The new RES generation will enable a substitution of carbon- intensive power generation. The electricity market benefit of the grid investments is substantial in all the studied scenarios. A closer integration between the Nordic, Baltic countries and Continental Europe will generate added value through utilization of natural resources in a viable and sustainable way.
5.2.1 SIMULATED BALANCES AND NET FLOWS
Simulated productions for each generation type, balances, and net flows in Nordic region in 2020 are presented in this subchapter. The figures show the situation in scenario EU2020, scenario B, scenario EU2020 with nuclear phase out in Germany, and scenario B with nuclear phase out in Germany. The figures are based on market model simulations in an average hydrological year. The following graph shows the energy produced per generation type in the Nordic region in different scenarios. Figures are based on market studies with the expected 2020 grid. Windpower and hydropower make up about 55 per cent of the total generation in each scenario. The share of nuclear power is about 26 per cent of the total generation in all scenarios. The share of coal and lignite generation is higher in B scenarios 23
than in EU2020 scenarios because of the lower CO2 price. However, the share of CO2 neutral generation, that is wind, hydro, nuclear and most of the generation in "Other" category (e.g. solar and biomass), is well over 80 per cent in each scenario.
The market simulations also show that nuclear phase out in Germany only has a minor effect on the energy balances and generation mix in the Nordic region.
250
200
EU2020 150 B2020 100 EU2020 w/ nuc shutdown B2020 w/ nuc shutdown 50
0 Wind Hydro Nuclear Other Lignite Coal Natural gas
WIND HYDRO NUCLEAR OTHER LIGNITE COAL NATURAL
GAS
EU2020 31,4 219,3 120,0 70,4 0,0 3,9 5,4
B2020 33,6 219,6 117,8 48,5 2,6 15,7 5,3
EU2020 W/ NUC PHASE OUT 31,4 222,0 120,0 71,1 0,0 4,1 5,7
B2020 W/ NUC PHASE OUT 33,6 221,2 116,6 49,8 2,6 20,9 5,8
FIGURE 13. ENERGY PRODUCED IN NORDIC REGION IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH 2020 GRID (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO- E
5.2.1.1. EU2020
In scenario EU2020 there is a large surplus of energy in Norway and Sweden due to the high amount of renewables in both countries and nuclear generation in Sweden. The main direction of energy flows in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region is from north to south and from west to east. The Baltic countries, Germany, and Poland will import more due to the inexpensive generation in the Nordic countries.
The energy balances shown for each country are the simulated balances from the market model. A negative value does not necessarily indicate a shortage of nationally available generation capacity, only that cheaper imported generation is used. The figure shows the effect on the flows due to the grid capacity changes of the grid investments presented in this plan. 24
FIGURE 14. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO EU2020 WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E
5.2.1.2. SCENARIO B
In scenario B the surplus of energy in the Nordic countries is moderate compared to the scenario EU2020. The deficit of energy in Poland is significantly lower than in scenario EU2020 and Germany is showing a surplus of energy. That is due to a smaller share of renewable generation in Nordic countries and a lower CO2 price which makes lignite and coal generation more competitive. In scenario B the main energy flows in Nordic and Baltic Sea region are from north to south and from east to west. Interconnection of Baltic system with Nordic and Central European system allows establishing alternative transmission route possibilities between Nordic and Central Europe. Most visible differences in relation to the EU2020 scenario can be seen on the flows towards Germany and Poland and to the Baltic states.
FIGURE 15. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO B WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E 25
5.2.1.3. EU2020 AND SCENARIO B WITH NUCLEAR PHASE OUT
Nuclear phase out sensitivity case was built on the base scenarios by changing the nuclear capacity in Germany with the planned phase out announced by Germany.
The following two maps show the changes in net flows and balances after the nuclear phase out in Germany compared to the base scenarios presented above. The figures show the difference between the case with nuclear phase out and the base case, both including the 2020 grid. As the figures show, the flows from east to west and north to south increase in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region after the nuclear phase out.
FIGURE 16 DIFFERENCE IN NET FLOWS AND BALANCES WITH NUCLEAR PHASE OUT IN GERMANY WITH 2020 GRID IN SCENARIO EU2020 ( LEFT); IN SCENARIO B (RIGHT). SOURCE: ENTSO-E
*The above market simulation results are uncertain, and subject to assumptions and input for the models, as well as simplifications of the power system. Results cannot be interpreted as actual truth, rather as indications on where increased transfer capacity might be beneficial.
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5.3 BULK POWER FLOWS IN 2020
The figure shows main load flow from north to south.
FIGURE 17. BULK POWER FLOWS AND THE MARKET FLOWS IN MW RANGE FOR RGBS REGION IN 2020. SOURCE: ENTSO-E Duration curves for Nordic-Continent and Nordic-Baltic flows in EU and B scenarios with both 2015 and 2020 grid are presented below. Nordic-continent shows the sum of simultaneous flows in all interconnections between Nordic countries and the continent. As the figure shows, flows in both directions increase significantly after the investments presented in this plan are made. The main direction of flows in both scenarios is from north to south. As the figure shows, there are no simultaneous bottlenecks in all lines between Nordic countries and the continent. However, there are considerable bottlenecks in certain individual lines, and adding capacity to those lines brings benefits, although the total capacity would already seem to be sufficient. 27
FIGURE 18. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO CONTINENT. SOURCE: ENTSO-E
The Nordic-Baltic figure shows the sum of simultaneous flows in all interconnections between Nordic countries and Baltic countries (Finland-Estonia and Sweden-Lithuania). Flows are mostly from Nordic countries to Baltic countries in both scenarios. In the EU scenario there are larger flows whilst at the same time interconnections are fairly congested, as the figure shows. In B scenario power flow levels are lower and there are no simultaneous bottlenecks in interconnections after the investments are made.
FIGURE 19. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO BALTIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E In conclusion, market studies indicate that the Nordic countries are expected to become a surplus area while reaching for EU 2020 targets. New investments in interconnectors between the countries will be beneficial to utilize the surplus. Additionally, new domestic reinforcements will be necessary to be able to supply the new interconnectors and to avoid internal bottlenecks. The share of CO2 neutral generation in Nordic countries is well over 80 28
per cent in each studied scenario, and the electricity market benefit of the planned investments is also substantial in all studied scenarios.
6 FUTURE INVESTMENTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES The drivers for grid investments in the Nordic countries have resulted in the development of several projects to increase market integration, RES and conventional generation integration and security of supply. This is also supported by the market study results presented in chapter 5. Both mid-term and long-term projects are being built for increasing power transmission within the Nordic area towards Continental Europe. Particularly, several large HVDC projects are planned for this purpose. Internal grid reinforcements are also necessary to support this development. Examples of such projects are voltage upgrades and series compensation of existing transmission lines and adding new transmission lines.
The projects presented in this plan are those of Nordic and Pan-European. In addition, all the Nordic TSOs have a number of other investments planned or in consideration, which are of national importance. These investments are included in the national development plans for each country. These purely national projects are not mentioned in this plan.
6.1 CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING PROJECTS • A Project of Pan-European Significance is a set of Extra High Voltage assets, matching the following criteria: • The main equipment is at least 220 kV if it is an overhead line AC or at least 150 kV otherwise, and is, at least partially, located in one of the 32 countries represented in TYNDP. • Altogether, these assets contribute to a grid transfer capability increase across a network boundary within the ENTSO-E interconnected network (e.g. additional Net Transfer Capability (NTC) between two market areas) or at its borders (i.e. increasing the import and/or export capability of ENTSO-E countries vis-à-vis others). • An estimate of the abovementioned grid transfer capability increase is explicitly provided in MW in the application. • The grid transfer capability increase meets at least one of the following minimums: o At least 500 MW of additional NTC; or 2 o Connecting or securing output of at least 1 GW/1000 km of generation; or o Securing load growth for at least 10 years for an area representing consumption greater than 3 TWh/yr.
6.2 PROJECTS OF PAN EUROPEAN AND NORDIC SIGNIFICANCE In this chapter a general description of the projects at regional level for the Nordic region is presented. Particular reference will be made to the most important issues and targets which the new investments are contributing towards. 29
6.2.1 MID-TERM (2012-2017)
FIGURE 20 MID TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E The figure above illustrates the projects which are expected to be delivered in the Nordic region in the first five-year period of the ten-year plan, that is, between 2012 and 2016. A number of important projects will be completed during this period, three of which involve offshore HVDC technology.
The mid-term projects are mainly driven by the need for more transmission capacity in the north-south direction due to RES integration both in the northern part of the region and in the southern part of the region. However, projects seldom only have one driver; for instance, the 30
projects affecting the NTC greatly improve the possibility of renewable integration in the region and also in the neighboring regions.
The projects recognized in the Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) are included in this regional plan. This plan presents links from the Baltic States to Finland, Sweden and Poland, these are also supported by European Union.
EstLink 2, a new HVDC (450kV) connection, will be built between Estonia and Finland. On the Finnish side, a 14km DC overhead line will be built to a new substation, namely Anttila. On the Estonian side, an 11km DC cable line will be built to an existing substation, namely Püssi. The length of the submarine cable is 140km. The capacity of the new HVDC link will be 650MW. Together with the existing link, the total transmission capacity between Estonia and Finland will increase to 1000 MW. The project also includes reinforcement of two existing 330 kV OHLs in Estonia thus enabling connection to the HVDC line on the Estonian side. The expected commissioning year is 2014.
NordBalt is a planned 300kV VSC HVDC subsea cable between Lithuania and Sweden (440km) with a capacity of 700 MW. The project will connect the Baltic grid to the Nordic and will, together with the Estlink connection, integrate the Baltic countries with the Nordic and European electricity market. The Project also includes AC grid reinforcements in Lithuania, Latvia and Sweden which are needed in order to use the capacity of the DC connection. The expected commissioning year is 2015 - 2016.
Improving the north-south transmission corridor in the region The Nordic power system is dominated by hydropower, and the variations in annual generation are extensive. Interconnectors to thermal systems are therefore important to balance out these variations. There is a high RES potential in the northern parts of Sweden, and in the northern, middle, western and southern parts of Norway. Increased RES generation in these areas must be transmitted southwards to areas with high consumption and interconnectors. Interconnectors to the continent and UK will facilitate the integration of RES in Norway and Sweden, as well as ensuring security of supply in years with low hydropower generation. Storage capabilities will also be provided in the form of the countries' hydropower reservoirs.
In the mid-term, one new interconnector will be built; the Skagerrak 4, which is a subsea HVDC link between Norway and Denmark (127 km), in parallel with the three existing links. The project includes a voltage upgrade of the so-called eastern corridor in the internal Norwegian grid. The capacity is 700 MW, and the expected commissioning year is 2014.
North-south in Scandinavia; There are several projects in Norway which aim to upgrade the existing 300 kV into 420 kV, and to establish a new 420 kV AC line from western to central Norway in order to secure the security of supply in central Norway. These projects will also integrate large volumes of RES generation. The capacity increase is divided between mid- term and long-term. Shunt compensation and series compensation of existing lines in 31
northern Sweden will be used to increase the transmission capacity in a north-south direction.
The north-south part of the South-West link; the South-West link will consist of a three- terminal VSC HVDC link which will connect the Oslo region in Norway to southern Sweden with a terminal midway in Sweden. Connecting to that terminal a 420 kV AC line will be used to strengthen the grid northwards. The AC line and the Swedish part of the DC line provide together a strengthening of the north–south capacity in the Swedish grid. These are planned for the mid-term with an expected commissioning year of 2015. The DC part connecting to Norway falls under long-term investments. The DC part of the South-West link will have a maximum capacity of 1400 MW.
North-south in Finland, several 400 kV AC lines are planned in Finland to increase the north- south transmission capacity thus enabling the integration of new renewable and conventional generation in northern Finland and to compensate the dismantling of the existing 220 kV lines. The commissioning of the lines is scheduled to take place in segments both in mid- term and long-term.
In addition, all mid-term projects listed in BEMIP are contributing to increased transmission capacity between the northern and southern parts of the Nordic countries by forming additional bridges between the generation surplus and deficit areas.
Denmark/Germany: The upgrading of the 400 kV back-bone transmission system in western Denmark and 400 kV connections to Germany will increase the grid transfer capacity from Denmark to Germany. The project is divided between mid-term and long-term. The Danish cable action plan will affect these investments.
Cobra is a 700 MW HVDC 320 kV link between western Denmark and the Netherlands. The capacity is 700 MW. The project will allow for the exchange and integration of wind energy and will increase the value of renewable energy in the Dutch and Danish systems and also increase the security of supply in both countries. The expected commissioning year is 2016. 32
6.2.2 LONG TERM (2017-2022)
FIGURE 21 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E The figure above illustrates the projects which are expected to be delivered in the Nordic region in the second five-year period of the ten-year plan, that is, between 2017 and 2022. This period will experience a significant number of completed new transmission line projects. These new links will further reinforce the Nordic grid. The plan in its totality will enable greater market integration and will create a larger market for the region’s renewable energy generation, by implementing a strong grid around the Baltic Sea. 33
Market integration is the main driver for most of the projects, but as for the mid-term projects, the renewable integration is also made easier in the whole system with increased capacity between the Nordic, Baltic and continental systems. Some projects are related to the security of supply (Arctic region) and some directly with RES integration. There are also some projects related to integration of large conventional generation (nuclear units planned in Finland ). Some of the transmission capacity will be added gradually from the mid-term, since additional internal reinforcements will be finished within the long-term timeframe.
Improving north-south transmission corridor in the region Large investments in RES generation are expected towards 2020 throughout the Nordic region. Reinforcements in the internal grids as well as increased interconnector capacity are needed. Increased surplus and more interconnectors will lead to a stronger north-south flow, and domestic reinforcements are especially needed in this direction.
For the long-term time horizon additional grid extension inside Germany will be required to meet the foreseen RES generation (especially wind) in northern Germany, the increasing geographical imbalance between generation and consumption, as well as the long distances separating generation and consumption regions. German TSOs are considering several DC- connections, allowing the north-south and northeast-southwest power flow and enhancing the grid stability. This will affect the future flows to and from the Nordic Area. Similarly future connections between Baltic system and continental Europe (LitPol link) will affect the transmission needs also in the Nordic system and between Nordic and Baltic systems.
South-West link; the western part of the South-West link expands the Swedish North-South VSC HVDC-link from mid-term investments to Norway, increasing the capacity between southern Norway and central/southern Sweden. The western part of the South-West link is planned for commissioning in 2018-2022, but the timetable is up for revision.
Several projects are planned to increase north-south capacity in Norway and Sweden. These include voltage upgraded and new AC-lines in northern and mid-Norway, voltage-upgrading between central and southern Norway. Increased capacity between Norway and Sweden in the northern or central areas will support more north-south flow, but more studies are needed in order to identify actual projects.
The north-south direction will also be reinforced with internal grid reinforcements in Finland and throughout the Baltic States. These reinforcements will provide an alternative route for exporting Nordic surplus power to central Europe.
An HVDC cable from Norway to Germany is planned to be commissioned by 2018, and a cable between Norway and UK is planned to be commisioned by 2020. The planned capacity for these links are 1400 MW.
Western Denmark/Germany Interconnection upgrade: The upgrading of the 400 kV back- bone transmission system in Denmark West and the 400 kV connections to Germany will increase the grid transfer capacity from western Denmark to Germany by 1000 MW and from 34
Germany to western Denmark by 1550 MW. The projects involve the transmission system upgrade in the two countries and have regional importance for integration of wind power in Denmark and Germany, improving the security of supply and better integration of the market for electricity. The expected commissioning year is 2017.
Kriegers Flak Combined Grid Solution (CGS) from eastern Denmark to Germany is considered to be a pilot project to build, utilise and demonstrate a multi-vendor, multi-terminal HVDC VSC offshore system interconnecting different countries and integrating offshore wind power. This will be a full-scale prototype of future European HVDC super grids, e.g. offshore transmission systems in North Sea and Baltic Sea, placing the Kriegers Flak CGS among the projects of pan-European significance and has been awarded a grant from the EEPR.
The project of a new (third) interconnection between Polish and German systems (Ger-Pol Power Bridge) is interesting for the Nordic area in the way that it is allowing connection of possible future off-shore super-grid to the rest of the network of central Europe and transit RES (wind off- and onshore) to consumption centers in central Europe. After commissioning the project it will be possible to build a second DC link to Sweden and transit renewable energy from Scandinavian power systems to consumption centers in continental Europe.
A third 400 kV AC line between northern Finland and northern Sweden is under consideration. Strengthening of the AC connection between Finland and Sweden is necessary due to new wind power generation, larger conventional units and decommissioning of the existing 220 kV interconnector. The estimated capacity increase is 700 MW, and the planned commissioning year is earliest 2021. The project and timetable are under evaluation.
7 NORTH SEA OFFSHORE GRID In the North Sea Region of Europe the offshore wind generation might play an important role in meeting the renewable energy targets up to and beyond 2020. Connecting this in an economic and efficient way is a key challenge. The development of an offshore grid in the North Sea has been identified as one of the priorities in the European Commission’s October 2011 Energy Infrastructure Package.
ENTSO-E proposes a pragmatic, stepwise approach to the connection of this resource, while keeping in mind the ultimate goal of a possible future integrated offshore grid that extends beyond the North Sea. This gives the opportunity to further extend the infrastructure and thereby also increasing interconnection capacities.
Although the backbone of such an offshore grid is likely to commence in the next ten years, it is only beyond 2020 and 2030 that the benefits of an integrated offshore grid are expected to be most significant. 35
Due to the highly variable output from renewable generation it is important to maintain enough transmission capability to maintain supply when the output is low and provide commercial opportunity when the output is high enough.
7.1 THE OFFSHORE GRID INITIATIVE
In December 2010, the ten governments of the North Sea countries (Ireland, UK, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) signed a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at providing a coordinated, strategic development path for a possible offshore transmission network in the North Sea. The ENTSO-E work in this domain is now being taken forward within the North Sea Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative (NSCOGI).
It should be recognized that in addition to the physical challenges of planning, constructing and operating such an interconnected European system, there are many regulatory, legal, commercial and political hurdles that must be identified and addressed. NSCOGI will be looking at these wider issues as part of its deliverables.
8 ICELANDIC GRID Landsnet is the Icelandic Transmission Operator, which operates the isolated Icelandic transmission grid. Since the Icelandic transmission grid is without connections to other grids, there are no mutual transmission projects.
The following figure shows an overview of the growth in consumption since Landsnet was founded in 2005.
FIGURE 22 DEVELOPMENT OF THE GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2005-2012
As seen from the figure, the total consumption has doubled since 2005. This is due to a very high increase in the power intensive consumption. 36
Further increase in consumption is assumed, as illustrated in Figure 21 below, which shows the estimated development until 2026.
Official plans for new power generating units indicate that new exploitation areas will be in the north-eastern and south-western parts of Iceland.
FIGURE 23 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN ICELAND, 2012 – 2026. The main targets for the development of the central transmission is to ensure:
• that the electricity market is able to operate without obstacles. Only temporary transmission restrictions,
• non-discrimination in grid access,
• that transmission system expansion is based on future visions and long-term perspectives,
• that socio-economic aspects are taken into consideration,
• that the transmission expansion is based on the n-1 rule,
• that the tariffs are based on non-discrimination
• a clear definition of the transmission system in the long-term view.
The focus for the development of the regional transmission systems is based on the following:
• Non-discrimination in grid access
• Market-based bottlenecks
• Compensation for delivery restrictions 37
• System expansion based on demand
• Faults/disturbances of single transmission units may lead to transmission disturbances (non n-1 rule)
• Non-traditional solutions may be applied instead of building new transmission units (e.g. diesel-generator set with battery back-up).
• Tariff based on real cost.
• Socio-economic assessment.
Due to how small the Icelandic power system is (i.e. measured in total load and installed production capacity), a single power intensive user project may have significant impact on the development of the transmission grid. Thus, the scenario illustrated in Figure 23 above is based on a careful assessment of future projects.
38
9 TERMS/GLOSSARY AC Alternate Current
BALTSO Regional cooperation between the Baltic TSO’s
BEMIP Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan
CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
CGS Combined Grid Solution. Used in the Kriegers Flak project
DC Direct Current
ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity
EU 2020 An ENTSO-E scenario which is built on the National Renewable Energy Action Plans from each member country
GHG Green House Gasses
HVDC links High Voltage Direct Current connections
IEA International Energy Agency
NTC Net Transfer Capacity
NORDEL Regional cooperation between the Nordic countries (including Iceland)
NPO Nuclear Phase OutTYNDP Ten Years Network Development Plan
NSCOGI North Sea Countries Offshore Grid Initiative. Regional group in ENTSO-E
RES Renewable Energy Sources
3rd Package 3rd legislative package
TSO Transmission System Operator
UCTE Union for Coordination and Transport of Electricity
VSC Voltage-Sourced Converter. The newest cable technology
39
10 REFERENCES 1. Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2010-2020, ENTSO-E, June 2010
2. Regional Investment Plan Baltic Sea, ENTSO-E, July 2012 (Reg IP Baltic Sea)
3. Regional Investment Plan North Sea, ENTSO-E, July 2012
4. 10-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2010-2020, ENTSO-E, July 2012
5. Kerfisaætlun (Icelandic Grid Plan 2012-2026)
6. Grid development plan 2011, Statnett, November 2011
7. National Action Plan for Renewable Energy in Denmark, Klima- og Energiministeriet, June 2010
8. National Action Plan for Renewable Energy in Sweden
9. National Action Plan for Renewable Energy in Finland
10. Act on elsertificates in Norway ("Lov om elsertifikater av 26.04. 2011")
11. Swedish-Norwegian Grid Development Plan, Svenska Kraftnät and Statnett, November 2010
12. Prioritised cross-sections, Reinforcement measures within the Nordic countries, Nordel, June 2009
13. Nordic Grid Master Plan 2008, Nordel, March 2008
14. Nordic Grid Master Plan 2002, Nordel, 2002
15. Priority cross-sections 2004, Nordel, 2004
16. Market based analysis of interconnections between Nordic, Baltic and Poland areas in 2025, BALTSO, Nordel, PSE Operator S.A., February 2009