Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation
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Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation Evaluation of Additional Submarine Fiber Cable Projects to the NSN and NordLink HVDC Projects June 2015 Version 1.0 3333 - Nexia - Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation 2015 Title Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation Date and version June 2015 – Version 1.0 About this report The Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation report has been prepared by Jan Morten Ruud, Tore Røraas, Mikael Christiansson and Harald Wium Lie at Nexia Management Consulting AS on behalf of Statnett in the period from October 2014 to June 2015. Special thanks to We will like to thank the many experts that has shared their insight with us through interviews, phone calls and emails. About Nexia Management Consulting AS Nexia Management Consulting AS is a management consultancy with expertise in telecommunications, ICT infrastructure and technology. Nexia Management Consulting AS provides expertise in business analysis, strategy development, business development and management to the telecommunications, ICT infrastructure and technology sector. Disclaimer Information and opinions contained in this publication is provided by the authors and by Nexia Management Consulting AS, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of Statnett. This report is based on information from Statnett, publicly available information and information from sources deemed to be reliable. Nexia has not been able to verify the information in many cases, and cannot guarantee for the correctness of the information. All rights are reserved. 2 - Nexia - Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation 2015 Content 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................5 1.1 Our Scope .............................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Fiber Alongside the HVDC-cable Projects .............................................................. 6 1.3 Sources and Methods ............................................................................................ 6 1.4 Limitations ............................................................................................................. 7 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................8 3 MARKET ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 11 3.2 International Capacity and Internet Transit ........................................................ 12 3.3 International Data Center Services ..................................................................... 17 3.4 Oil and Gas Sector Demands ............................................................................... 20 3.5 General national interests ................................................................................... 21 3.6 Market for NordLink and NSN fiber .................................................................... 23 4 TECHNOLOGY .................................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Introduction to Fiber Communication ................................................................ 25 4.2 System Components ............................................................................................ 29 4.3 Manufacture, Freight and Loading ...................................................................... 29 4.4 The Installation Process ....................................................................................... 30 4.5 The Operation of Bundled Cables ....................................................................... 31 4.6 Comparable Fiber Sea Cable Systems ................................................................. 34 5 ALTERNATIVES AND ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................. 36 5.1 About the Fiber Alternatives ............................................................................... 36 5.2 Method for Benchmarking .................................................................................. 37 5.3 Calculation of Payback and Net Present Value ................................................... 37 5.4 Sensitivity Analysis .............................................................................................. 38 6 POTENTIAL NORDLINK FIBER PROJECT ............................................................................. 40 6.1 The NordLink Project ........................................................................................... 40 6.2 The NordLink Fiber Project .................................................................................. 42 6.3 Summary of figures ............................................................................................. 45 6.4 Synergies and Sensitivities .................................................................................. 47 7 POTENTIAL NSN FIBER PROJECT ....................................................................................... 50 7.1 The NSN Project................................................................................................... 50 7.2 The NSN Fiber Project ......................................................................................... 52 7.3 Summary of figures ............................................................................................. 55 7.4 Synergies and Sensitivities .................................................................................. 56 8 RISK ELEMENTS ................................................................................................................. 59 8.1 Risks Related to the Power Cable Project when Bundled with Fiber .................. 59 8.2 Risks Related to the Fiber Cable Project when Bundled with the Power Cable Project ............................................................................................................................. 61 8.3 Issues for Consideration ...................................................................................... 62 9 DISCUSSION AND RESULTS ............................................................................................... 64 9.1 NordLink Discussion and Results ......................................................................... 64 9.2 NSN Discussion and Results................................................................................. 66 9.3 Discussion and Results Related to Our Scope ..................................................... 68 10 LIST OF SOURCES .............................................................................................................. 73 3 - Nexia - Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation 2015 APPENDIX I - METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 74 APPENDIX II – ASSESSMENT OF TERMINATION POINTS ............................................................. 76 APPENDIX III - BASIS FOR MARKET SIZE ...................................................................................... 80 APPENDIX IV – SENSITIVITY DATA ............................................................................................... 81 4 - Nexia - Statnett Submarine Fiber Evaluation 2015 1 Introduction 1.1 Our Scope Statnett vurderer å legge undersjøisk fiberkabel sammen med HVDC-kabler på hhv 516 og 750 km mellom Norge og Tyskland og Norge og England. I den forbindelse skal følgende problemstillinger analyseres: I hvilken grad det er praktisk gjennomførbart å etablere fiberkabler uten at signalene må regenereres. Hvilken risiko og driftsmessige konsekvenser som en samleggning av fiberkabler med HVDC-kabel vil ha. Realistiske nivåer for etablerings- og driftskostnader som et fibernett med og uten regenerering av signaler vil ha. Hvilke markedsmuligheter som finnes for salg av mørk fiber og/eller optiske kanaler til aktører i telebransjen. Oppdragsmottaker må gjennomføre minst 5 intervjuer med leverandører og/eller tekniske eksperter og minst 3 intervjuer med aktører i telebransjen i tillegg til intervjuer med Statnett sitt drifts- og prosjektmiljø. Leveransen skal dokumenteres i form av en rapport som inneholder tekniske vurderinger om fiberkablene med tilhørende kalkyle for inntekter og kostnader med og uten regenerering av signaler. Rapporten skal ha en kvalitet som gjør den egnet for offentliggjøring, og kalkylene skal ha en detaljeringsgrad på linje med andre offentlig tilgjengelige rapporter om investeringer i telenett (se f.eks. rapporten «Kostnadsanalyse –bredbåndsdekning i ulike varianter» som Nexia utarbeidet for Fornyingsdepartmentet i 2013). Our translation to English: Statnett considers the installation of fiber optic cables alongside HVDC-cables of respectively 516 and 750 km between Norway and Germany and Norway and England. The following problems shall be analyzed: To which degree it is technically viable to establish fiber cables without amplification. Identification of the risks and operational consequences of a bundled installation of HVDC and fiber cables. Identification of realistic levels of investment and operational costs that a fiber network with or without amplification will have. Which market opportunities that exist for sale of dark fiber and/or optical wavelengths to telecom customers. The recipient of the assignment shall perform