Norway, That Could Affect Norwegian Security and Damage National Interests in the Coming Year
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Analyses of Crisis Scenarios 2019 DSB ANALYSES OF CRISIS SCENARIOS 2019 1 DISASTERS THAT MAY AFFECT NORWEGIAN SOCIETY Issued by: Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) 2019 ISBN: 978-82-7768-472-7 (PDF) Cover and design: Dinamo Printed by: ETN Grafisk, Skien 2 ANALYSES OF CRISIS SCENARIOS 2019 DSB SEVERE WEATHER Hurricane on the coast. Frøya municipality, Trøndelag. / SAMPHOTO WUTTUDAL TORE PHOTO DSB ANALYSES OF CRISIS SCENARIOS 2019 3 4 NASJONALTANALYSES OF RISIKOBILDE CRISIS SCENARIOS 2013 DSB 2019 DSB NATIONAL RISK AND THREAT ASSESSMENTS The DSB’s Analyses of Crisis Scenarios (ACS)1 is one of four threat and risk assessments published every year. The others are published by the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST), the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) and the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM). The PST’s primary responsibility is to prevent and investigate crimes against national security. The PST’s annual threat assessment discusses situations, usually in Norway, that could affect Norwegian security and damage national interests in the coming year. These include threats from state actors in the form of foreign intelligence services, their current intelligence targets and the services’ operational patterns in Norway. The assessments also deal with threats from non-state actors, especially threats of politically motivated violence by extremist groups or individuals. The assessments have a time horizon of one year and are published in the first quarter. The NIS’s primary task is to warn of external threats and support the development of Norwegian security, foreign and defence policy. The service publishes an annual assessment of the international situation and foreign threats of significance to Norway and Norwegian interests. This year’s ‘Focus 2018’ assessment provides an overarching description of the relevant situations and security threats within various countries, regions, and themes. The assessments have a time horizon of one year and are published in the first quarter. The NSM is Norway’s expert body on information and object security, and the national specialist authority for ICT security. The NSM produces an annual report on the state of security within the scope of the Norwegian Security Act. In this report, the NSM considers risks applying to vital societal functions and critical infrastructure, information that should be protected and people being impacted by espionage, sabotage, terrorism or other serious acts. The report has a time horizon of one year. The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) is tasked with maintaining a general overview of risk and vulnerability within society. The DSB has published risk analyses of scenarios since 2011. The analyses cover risks associated with catastrophic events that could impact Norwegian society and that Norway should be prepared to face. These include natural events, major accidents and intentional acts. The analyses have longer time horizons than the annual assessments of the other three agencies. 1 Up until 2016, the DSB’s scenario analyses were called ‘National Risk Analyses’. Since 2016 they have been called ‘Analyses of Crisis Scenarios (year) – Disasters that may affect Norwegian society’. DSB ANALYSES OF CRISIS SCENARIOS 2019 5 CONTENTS A word from the general director ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 01 Aim and content .......................................................................................................................................................................... 19 1.1 Selection of events ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 1.2 Use of Analyses of Crises Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 21 02 Methodical approach to risk ............................................................................................................................................... 25 03 Extreme weather and flooding .......................................................................................................................................... 35 3.1 «Storm in Inner Oslo Fjord» scenario ......................................................................................................................... 38 3.2 «Flooding in Lågen and Glomma» scenario ............................................................................................................. 44 3.3 «Flash Flooding in a City» scenario .............................................................................................................................. 48 04 Landslides and avalanches ................................................................................................................................................... 53 4.1 «Rockslide at Åknes» scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 56 4.2 «Quick Clay Landslide in a City» scenario ................................................................................................................. 60 05 Communicable diseases ...........................................................................................................................................................65 5.1 «Pandemic in Norway» scenario .................................................................................................................................. 68 5.2 «Foodborne Illness» scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 72 5.3 «Disease Outbreak with Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria» scenario .............................................................. 76 06 Forest and wilderness fires .................................................................................................................................................. 81 6.1 «Three Simultaneous Forest Fires» scenario ......................................................................................................... 84 07 Space weather ............................................................................................................................................................................ 89 7.1 «Solar Storm» scenario ..................................................................................................................................................... 92 08 Volcanic activity ......................................................................................................................................................................... 97 8.1 «Long-Term Volcanic Eruption in Iceland» scenario .......................................................................................... 100 09 Earthquake .................................................................................................................................................................................. 107 9.1 «Earthquake in a City» scenario .................................................................................................................................. 110 6 ANALYSES OF CRISIS SCENARIOS 2019 DSB CONTENTS 10 Chemical and explosive incidents .................................................................................................................................... 117 10.1 «Fire at an Oil Terminal in a City» scenario ........................................................................................................ 120 10.2 «Gas Emission from an Industrial Plant» scenario ......................................................................................... 124 11 Nuclear accidents .................................................................................................................................................................. 129 11.1 «Nuclear Accident» scenario .................................................................................................................................... 132 12 Offshore accidents ................................................................................................................................................................ 137 12.1 «Oil and Gas Blowout» scenario ............................................................................................................................... 140 13 Transport accidents ............................................................................................................................................................. 145 13.1 «Collision at Sea off the Coast of Western Norway» scenario ................................................................ 150 13.2 «Tunnel Fire» scenario ................................................................................................................................................. 154 14 Supply failures .......................................................................................................................................................................... 159