Finding the Optimal Seat Capacity for Train-Services Using Transport Models
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK June 2014 FINDING THE OPTIMAL SEAT CAPACITY FOR TRAIN-SERVICES USING TRANSPORT MODELS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT María Díez Gutiérrez – s121456 Finding the optimal seat capacity for train services using transport models MSc Thesis – Transport Engineering ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It is with gratitude to my supervisor Kim Bang Salling for making possible this thesis project and encouraging me during the process. I would like to express my appreciation to Trude Tørset whose enthusiasm for transport models has been inspiring to focus my research on the field. I thank her for following up my thesis from the earlier stages, providing me support and guidance. My sincere thanks to Jernbaneverket, in particular Per Jorulf Overvik and Patrick Ranheim, who helped me to specify the topic and to obtain the required data. I thank them for the useful observations along the learning process of this master thesis. I would like to express my gratitude to Stefano Manzo for the worthwhile comments and remarks on this project. I want to thank Olav Kåre Malmin who has helped me to understand better the technical aspects of the model. Thanks to NSB for providing me with necessary data and resources for the Jæren line analyses. Last but not least, I would like to express my love and gratitude to my family for their understanding, encouragement and support. I Finding the optimal seat capacity for train services using transport models MSc Thesis – Transport Engineering ABSTRACT This master thesis project aims to estimate the optimal capacity for the rush period in the Jæren line, particularly in the service between Stavanger and Egersund. The study is based on the modelled demands using the part-area-model DOM_Jæren of the Norwegian Regional Transport Model. The general idea and methodology behind the transport models is described in this report, as well as, a deeper analysis on the Norwegian Transport Models, especially the Regional Transport Model. The transport model used is validated and calibrated with respect to observed train passengers’ counts. Potential sources of errors in modelling the train demand are identified and understood in order to update the model, and hence improving the simulation. Society is nowadays demanding more comfortable means of transport. Therefore, in the decision process of a possible public transport user new variables might be involved. A review of different comfort variables is encompassed in this project. Including crowding in the demand model is proposed and developed. The perception of travel time on board of a crowded carriage could be perceived as longer for some users. In this report, different crowding factors are suggested in order to use them as travel time multipliers. A possible methodology for implementing crowding in the model is also described. In addition, potential passengers’ reactions towards highly occupied carriages are analysed. After obtaining an updated and crowding dependent load profile for the line Stavanger - Egersund, the optimal capacity in the rush period is estimated. On one hand, based on an economic approach using the marginal utility and cost of an extra vehicle or carriage. On the other, a method based on the demand profile and frequencies. III Finding the optimal seat capacity for train services using transport models Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT .................................................................................. 3 2. COMFORT VARIABLES ..................................................................................................... 5 2.1 CROWDING .............................................................................................................. 6 Effects of crowding ......................................................................................................... 6 Perception of crowding .................................................................................................. 6 Measurement of crowding ............................................................................................. 7 Crowding in transport models ........................................................................................ 8 Value of crowding ........................................................................................................... 9 2.2 CAPACITY ............................................................................................................... 10 Capacity constraints in the transport model ................................................................ 10 2.3 ADDITIONAL COMFORT VARIABLES ...................................................................... 12 3. NORWEGIAN TRANSPORT MODELS ............................................................................. 15 3.1 NATIONAL TRANSPORT MODEL (NTM) ................................................................. 17 3.2 REGIONAL TRANSPORT MODEL (RTM) ................................................................. 18 Car ownership model ................................................................................................... 19 Demand model (Tramod_by) ....................................................................................... 20 Network assignment .................................................................................................... 22 Generalized costs – Level of service ............................................................................. 23 3.3 DOM_JÆREN ......................................................................................................... 26 4. JÆREN LINE ................................................................................................................... 29 Socio-demographic information ................................................................................... 30 Schedules of the local trains ......................................................................................... 31 Type and policies of the local trains ............................................................................. 33 5. BUILDING THE NEW MODEL ......................................................................................... 37 5.1 VALIDATING AND CALIBRATING THE MODEL ....................................................... 38 Observed demand -> NSB counts ................................................................................. 38 Modelled demand -> Scenario 0 .................................................................................. 38 Differences modelled and observed demand -> Scenario 0 vs. NSB counts ................ 41 MSc Thesis – Transport Engineering Calibrating input data in the model -> Scenario 1........................................................ 43 Differences modelled demand changing input data -> Scenario 1 vs. Scenario 0 ....... 47 Calibrating mode choice parameters in the model -> Scenario 2 ................................ 51 Differences modelled demand changing utilities -> Scenarios 2 vs. Scenario 1 .......... 51 5.2 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CROWDING FACTOR IN THE MODEL ......................... 54 Crowding factor ............................................................................................................ 54 Implementation in the model ...................................................................................... 58 6. CROWDING SCENARIOS ................................................................................................ 63 6.1 CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS ON THE ROAD -> Scenario 2 vs. Scenario 3 .................. 64 6.2 CROWDING ON BOARD -> Scenario 2 vs. Scenario 4, 5, 6, C ................................ 66 Equilibrium point .......................................................................................................... 66 Crowding Scenario -> Scenario C .................................................................................. 69 6.3 CROWDING SENSITIVITY -> Scenario 2 vs. Scenarios 7, 8, 9, 10 ........................... 74 7. OPTIMUM SEATING CAPACITY ..................................................................................... 79 7.1 ECONOMIC APPROACH ......................................................................................... 83 Marginal cost curve ...................................................................................................... 83 Marginal utility curve ................................................................................................... 85 Optimal capacity ........................................................................................................... 89 7.2 LOAD PROFILE APPROACH .................................................................................... 91 Procedure ..................................................................................................................... 91 Optimal seat capacity ................................................................................................... 97 8. DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................. 99 DOM-Jæren .................................................................................................................. 99 Crowding-model ......................................................................................................... 101 Passenger reactions towards crowding.....................................................................