Nordic Grid Development Plan 2012 Foreword The Nordic transmission system operators (TSOs) have a long history of successful cooperation within grid development. Three common Nordic grid master plans have been developed in the last ten years in the context of Nordel, the previous cooperative organization for the Nordic TSOs. Joint Nordic grid development is essential to support further development of an integrated Nordic electricity market, as well as increased capacity to other countries and integration of renewable energy sources (RES). The Nordic co-operation on grid development is now taking place within the wider regional context provided by the regional groups North Sea and Baltic Sea of ENTSO-E, the European organization for TSOs, in addition to bilateral co-operation when required. The Nordic Grid Development Plan 2012 is prepared as a response to the request from the Nordic Council of Ministers of October 25, 2010. The plan is prepared by Statnett, Svenska Kraftnät, Energinet.dk and Fingrid, and the Icelandic TSO Landsnet has provided input regarding the Icelandic grid. The plan presents the Nordic grid investment plans for the next ten years. 28. September 2012 Oslo Stockholm Copenhagen Helsinki Statnett SF Svenska Kraftnät Energinet.dk Fingrid Auke Lont Mikael Odenberg Peder Østermark Andreasen Jukka Ruusunen CEO CEO CEO CEO LIST OF TABLES....................................................................................................................... 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................. 3 2 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 8 2.1 ENTSO-E ...................................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 EXPECTATION OF THE 3RD LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE ON GRID PLANS ......................................................... 9 2.3 EXPECTATIONS OF THE NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS ...................................................................... 9 3 MONITORING - STATUS OF PREVIOUS NORDIC PRIORITIZED GRID INVESTMENTS ....... 10 3.1 NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002 .................................................................................................. 10 3.2 PRIORITY CROSS –SECTIONS 2004 .................................................................................................... 11 3.3 NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 .................................................................................................. 12 3.4 MARKET BASED ANALYSIS OF INTERCONNECTIONS BETWEEN NORDIC, BALTIC AND POLAND AREAS IN 2025 (2009) .......................................................................................................................................... 14 3.5 SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT – THREE SCENARIOS (2010) ............................................ 14 3.6 CURRENT STATUS .......................................................................................................................... 15 4 DRIVERS FOR GRID INVESTMENT IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES .................................. 17 4.1 PRESENT SITUATION ....................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 DRIVERS OF SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................. 19 4.2.1 MARKET INTEGRATION .................................................................................................................. 20 4.2.2 RES AND CONVENTIONAL GENERATION INTEGRATION ...................................................................... 20 4.2.3 SECURITY OF SUPPLY ..................................................................................................................... 20 4.2.4 AGING TRANSMISSION ASSETS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ............................................................. 21 5 SCENARIOS AND MARKET STUDY RESULTS .............................................................. 21 5.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS ..................................................................................................... 21 5.2 REGIONAL MARKET STUDY RESULTS ................................................................................................ 22 5.2.1 SIMULATED BALANCES AND NET FLOWS ........................................................................................... 22 5.3 BULK POWER FLOWS IN 2020 .......................................................................................................... 26 6 FUTURE INVESTMENTS IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES ................................................. 28 6.1 CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING PROJECTS ................................................................................................. 28 6.2 PROJECTS OF PAN EUROPEAN AND NORDIC SIGNIFICANCE ................................................................... 28 6.2.1 MID-TERM (2012-2017) ................................................................................................................. 29 6.2.2 LONG TERM (2017-2022) ............................................................................................................... 32 7 NORTH SEA OFFSHORE GRID .................................................................................. 34 7.1 THE OFFSHORE GRID INITIATIVE ....................................................................................................... 35 8 ICELANDIC GRID .............................................................................................. 35 9 TERMS/GLOSSARY ................................................................................................ 38 10 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... 39 Front page photo by: Pål Bentdal 2 List of Figures FIGURE 1 MEDIUM TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E............................................................... 6 FIGURE 2 LONG TERM PROJECTS IN THE NORDIC REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ................................................................... 7 FIGURE 3 ENTSO-E REGIONAL GROUPS FOR GRID PLANNING - NORDIC PARTICIPATION IN BALTIC SEA AND NORTH SEA GROUPS ..................................................................................................................................... 9 FIGURE 4 IDENTIFIED TRANSMISSION NEEDS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2002 ............................................................ 11 FIGURE 5 EXPECTED TRANSMISSION PATTERNS IN THE NORDIC GRID ................................................................................ 11 FIGURE 6 PROPOSED NORDIC GRID REINFORCEMENTS IN NORDIC GRID MASTER PLAN 2008 .............................................. 13 FIGURE 7 RECOMMENDED NEW INTERCOMMECTORS FROM 2009 ANALYSIS ...................................................................... 14 FIGURE 8 PRIORITIZED REINFORCEMENTS, SWEDISH – NORWEGIAN GRID DEVELOPMENT 2010 .................................. 15 FIGURE 9 THE THREE SYNCHRONOUS SYSTEMS OF BALTIC SEA REGION, MAXIMUM CROSS BORDER CAPACITIES AND CROSS BORDER NET IMPORT CAPACITY OF EACH COUNTRY COMPARED TO COUNTRY'S WINTER PEAK LOAD IN YEAR 2012. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ......................................................................................... 17 FIGURE 10 CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ............................ 18 FIGURE 11 . GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES IN NORDIC REGION COUNTRIES IN 2010. SOURCE: ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................... 18 FIGURE 12 MAP OF MAIN DRIVERS IN BALTIC SEA REGION. SOURCE: ENTSO-E .............................................................. 19 FIGURE 13. ENERGY PRODUCED IN NORDIC REGION IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH 2020 GRID (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................................. 23 FIGURE 14. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO EU2020 WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ................................................................................................................... 24 FIGURE 15. NET FLOWS AND BALANCES IN SCENARIO B WITH 2015 GRID (LEFT) AND 2020 GRID (RIGHT) (TWH/A). SOURCE: ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................... 24 FIGURE 16 DIFFERENCE IN NET FLOWS AND BALANCES WITH NUCLEAR PHASE OUT IN GERMANY WITH 2020 GRID IN SCENARIO EU2020 ( LEFT); IN SCENARIO B (RIGHT). SOURCE: ENTSO-E ................................................ 25 FIGURE 17. BULK POWER FLOWS AND THE MARKET FLOWS IN MW RANGE FOR RGBS REGION IN 2020. SOURCE: ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................................. 26 FIGURE 18. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO CONTINENT. SOURCE: ENTSO-E .................................................................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 19. DURATION CURVES SHOWING SIMULTANEOUS FLOWS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES TO BALTIC COUNTRIES. SOURCE: ENTSO-E ...............................................................................................................