Places for All A School Place Planning Strategy 2018 to 2023 newham.gov.uk

Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ...... 3 1.1 Mainstream Education ...... 3 1.2 Special Education Needs and Disabilities ...... 4 1.3 Early Years ...... 4 1.4 Post-16 Education and Training ...... 5 1.5 Next Steps ...... 5 2.0 Compulsory Education ...... 6 2.1 Monitoring Demand for Mainstream Pupil Places ...... 6 2.2 Pupil demographics for Primary and Secondary Schools ...... 6 2.3 Funding to commission new school places ...... 8 2.4 Process to provide additional mainstream school places ...... 9 3.0 Forecasting for Mainstream School Places ...... 11 3.1 Planning areas ...... 11 3.2 Secondary School Places Forecasts ...... 12 3.3 Schools within the Secondary Pupil Place Planning Area ...... 14 3.4 Year 7 Forecasts ...... 14 3.5 Overall Secondary Forecasts ...... 16 3.6 Primary School Place Forecasts ...... 17 3.7 Beckton Planning Area ...... 20 3.8 Canning Town and Custom House Primary Planning Area ...... 21 3.9 East Ham Planning Area ...... 25 4.0 Forest Gate Planning Area ...... 27 4.1 Manor Park Primary Planning Area ...... 29 4.2 Plaistow Primary Planning Area ...... 31 4.3 Stratford Primary Planning Area ...... 33 5.0 Special Educational Needs provision ...... 36 5.1 Duties for children and young people aged 0 to 25 with SEND ...... 36 5.2 SEND Provision ...... 36 5.3 An inclusive approach to special educational needs and disability (SEND) ...... 38 5.4 SEND Needs analysis ...... 38 5.5 SEND Emerging plans ...... 38

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5.6 Pupil Referral Units and Alternative Provision ...... 39 Appendix A: Births ...... 40 Appendix B: Types of Schools in Newham ...... 42 Appendix C: School place planning methodology...... 43 Appendix D: Capital Basic Need Projects Undertaken ...... 45 Appendix E: 16-19 place analysis and projections ...... 47

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1.0 Executive Summary

Local Authorities have a statutory duty towards the spiritual, moral, mental and physical development of the community by securing sufficient education provision to meet the needs of the population within their area. This duty encompasses provision for all primary and secondary aged pupils from to sixteen years of age; provision of post-16 places; provision of early years places from birth to the age of five; and provision of specialist education places for any child that requires a place from birth extending to the age of 25.

This place planning strategy makes recommendations for adjustments in the supply of future provision based on forecasts of need. The five year forecasts include population growth that is anticipated from Newham’s housing development programme. The strategy has been developed with engagement from head teachers and governors from schools in Newham. It includes provision for Special Education Needs and Disabilities, Early Years, and Post-16 planning.

By providing information to residents and stakeholders, the purpose of this strategy is to provide a platform for transparency and engagement on decision-making for future school provision.

The last ten years has seen an increasing child population in Newham which has increased the demand for education provision. The Office of National Statistics mid-year population estimates have identified Newham as having the third highest 0 to 15 aged population in London. Although recent birth trends indicate that the large increases previously experienced in births have now slowed down, this has also been reflected in the birth rate in Newham. Newham’s Local Plan has identified approximately 19,000 new homes to be delivered over the next five years and beyond. This place planning strategy incorporates the latest pupil projections based on known live births, housing yields and current trends to ensure resources are prioritised accordingly to deliver the best provision for all.

1.1 Mainstream Education Newham has responded proactively to the increases in its mainstream primary aged population by providing additional primary places through the expansion of existing schools. The primary January School Census (2018) evidenced an increase of an additional 6,000 pupils being educated within Newham from January 2010 to January 2018.

After a period of continuous primary school roll growth the latest pupil projections have identified:

1. The level of live births has stopped rising and has levelled out over recent years. The significant increases in the number of pupils joining reception year is not forecast to increase further and therefore primary numbers will stabilise into the future, other than in those areas where significant additional housing is planned.

2. A number of primary schools have raised concerns over an increasing number of unfilled places experienced in their schools. This is a trend that has been experienced across London due to a decrease in births. Factors such as the unaffordability of homes, the economic viability of families to remain in London and trends in migration rates have caused uncertainty.

3. Sufficient infrastructure is required to meet the need of 19,000 planned new homes in the borough. The occupation of these developments will increase the population of Newham

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and subsequently the demand for school provision. The potential pupil yield from residential developments impacts specifically in the pupil place planning areas of:  Beckton - forecasts show a deficit of places from 2021/22;  Canning Town & Custom House - a potential deficit of places from 2023/24; and  Stratford - a deficit of places from 2022/23.

Canning Town & Custom House primary place planning area shows the largest deficit of places arising from the pupil yield from new housing. Potential increases from pupil yield will have an impact across all school year groups.

Provision has been made within the Infrastructure Delivery Plan to provide additional primary places in response to the housing developments. It is important to acknowledge that forecasts based on anticipated pupil yield are more volatile than forecasts based on known birth data and school cohort growth patterns. Many external factors impact pupil yields such as the completion date of the development; changes in housing mix or number of bedrooms; the development being occupied by existing Newham residents thereby not increasing the overall population but moving from over-crowded housing to new housing; economic and social factors, national and local policies and trends can impact the build and occupation of future developments.

4. Following the increases in the primary school roll over the last ten years there is now a rising need for additional secondary school places in Newham. The existing secondary supply together with the proposed additional expansions of two secondary schools is insufficient to meet the additional demand of the increased primary cohorts transitioning into the secondary sector.

The latest secondary roll projections indicate that there will be considerable pressure on secondary school places of around 3,177 places (the equivalent of 21 forms of entry) up to 2025/26. These are based on pupils already within the primary setting. Projections beyond this date will rely on projected reception rolls and projected births. The Council is proposing to provide some of these additional places through the expansion of existing secondary schools. To ensure the places are available it is necessary to postpone some of the existing primary projects to make to enable capital funding to be directed to the area of greatest need.

1.2 Special Education Needs and Disabilities There has been increased pressure for provision for children and young people with special education needs and disability (SEND) or an Education Health Care Plan (EHCP) particularly relating to complex autism. To address this there has been additional resourced provision provided within existing Newham primary schools. There is a pressing need for additional specialist places for secondary age children.

1.3 Early Years There are sufficient places within the early years sector for the birth to under five year olds. Provision in this sector has been increased since 2015 by 11%. Changes in the childcare market and the extended 30 hour free entitlement, introduction of tax-free childcare, and the increase in the child population has the potential for further growth. The local authority has a role to play in facilitating and promoting sufficient early years provision.

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1.4 Post-16 Education and Training Local authorities are required to promote participation in education and training of 16 and 17 year olds. For those with Education Health Care plans this duty extends to the age of 25. In Newham the majority of secondary schools provide education up to the age of 16. Additional provision for education and training has been provided through places at NewVic and the UTC colleges. Past trends indicate significant mobility in the post-16 population, in recent years this trend has reversed with an increased take-up of Newham students taking up places in Newham. With the projected increases in the secondary school sector this has a significant effect on post-16 provision which is forecasted to increase by approximately 2,500 pupils over the next five years described in Appendix E.

1.5 Next Steps There are significant pressures for additional secondary school places within the mainstream and SEND sector over the next five academic years. Current funding and future funding needs to be prioritised to ensure sufficiency and best value is achieved for all. It is therefore necessary to review all planned schemes to identify how best to utilise the funding.

To ensure sufficient education places for all the Council is working with its partners, educational providers, service users and the Department for Education to engage all interested parties in the dialogue.

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2.0 Compulsory Education The Education Act 1996 (section 14) imposes a duty on local authorities to secure sufficient school provision for all pupils of ages four to sixteen within its area. This duty requires the local authority to monitor and review its current supply of school provision against the forecasted demand; making necessary adjustments to the supply to ensure there is not an unnecessary surplus or deficit of places.

Newham has 66 state-funded schools providing primary aged education and 21 schools providing secondary aged education. Approximately 50% of the state-funded schools are academies or free-schools. Appendix B provides further details of these. In addition to this education is also provided for pupils that are not in mainstream provision due to reasons of illness, exclusion or otherwise at Pupil Referral Units at Tunmarsh School and New Directions; The Reintegration to Education Team; the Coborn Centre at Newham University hospital; and other provisions for those most vulnerable.

2.1 Monitoring Demand for Mainstream Pupil Places Demand for pupil places within the mainstream sector is monitored using a forecasting methodology based on guidance from the Department for Education’s projection toolkit. The outputs from the methodology are used to inform strategic decision making and allocate capital resources to the areas of greatest need.

The results of the forecasting methodology are compared with the known supply of school places to identify any surpluses or deficits in school places. The Audit commission recommends an operating surplus of 5% to allow for in-year admissions.

The projection methodology is checked for accuracy against the outcome of the January School Census. The projections produced annually by the authority and reported to Cabinet and to the Department for Education (DfE) as part of the annual School Capacity Return (SCAP). The data in this return is used by the DfE to calculate projected shortfalls in pupil numbers to determine Basic Need Funding capital allocations. Basic Need Funding is provided to local authorities to meet the capital costs of additional school places, with allocations from previous years being awarded primarily for primary provision. 2.2 Pupil demographics for Primary and Secondary Schools Over the past five years, the pupil population has increased by over 12% which represents nearly 6,000 additional pupils. Continued growth in the secondary sector is expected (Appendix A) as increased primary numbers transfer to the secondary sector.

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55000 53694 52582 53000 51538 51000 49944 48897 49000 47729 46370 47000 45568 44633 44516 44710 44902 45000 43000

41000 Number ofPupils 39000 37000 35000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 1: Total number of primary and secondary mainstream pupils, 2006 to 2017 (excluding post-16, Special schools and Alternative education)1

5500

5046 5012 4948 5000 4921

4834 4771

4493 4500 4253 4071 3959 4000 3835

Number ofPupils 3551 3500

3000 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 National Curriculum Year

Figure 2: Total number of pupils in each year group, January 2017 (excluding post-16, Special schools and Alternative education)2

Figure 3 shows that recent growth has focused on primary year groups. The growth in the primary phase is now progressing through to the secondary phase.

1 Newham January School Census data (2006 to 2017) 2 Newham January 2017 School Census data

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60000

19,669 18,941

50000 18,587

18,019

17,872

17,921

17,751

17,662

17,836

17,694

17,731

17,568

40000

34,025

33,641

32,951 31,925

30000 31,025 Secondary

29,808

28,619

27,906

27,066

27,016

26,948

26,902 Primary

20000

10000

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 3: Total number of primary and secondary mainstream pupils, 2006 to 2017 (excluding post- 16, Special schools and Alternative education) broken into phases.

Figure 4 illustrates historically the relatively modest rise in secondary numbers compared to the significant rise in primary numbers.

2.3 Funding to commission new school places

Basic Need Funding To enable local authorities to deliver school provision brought about by the increases in birth rates and population the Department for Education provides basic need capital funding based on current and future school provision and anticipated pupil forecasts. In addition to this the free-school programme delivers school places that are funded directly by the Department’s Education and Education and School Funding Agency.

Newham has received £228,523,658 in Basic Needs Funding from financial year 2011/12 to 2019/20. The capital programme for school places is determined annually by the Council to meet the priority for school places. This means that the capital programme may change depending on emerging priorities. When new schemes are identified these are normally estimates based on high level feasibility studies. Actual costs are often unknown until a number of processes are completed such as: full design, procurement and tendering of contracts, planning conditions and commencement of contractual works onsite. Appendix D provides a list of projects undertaken using the Basic Need funding.

When additional school places are opened, the Schools Forum is able to determine whether a proportion of revenue funding is retained centrally to fund those places in advance of the school’s budget. This enables schools to resource new places in a way which is timely, effective and maximises the opportunity of high quality places.

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New Free School Programme In addition to Basic Need Funding new free-schools can be funded through the DfE’s new free school programme. This requires providers to express interest in establishing a new free-school through the DfE. The DfE has currently opened wave 13 of its free-school programme requesting providers to focus on opening schools in the areas of greatest need, with Newham identified as having a need for secondary provision3. Previously there have been a number of free-schools delivered through the new free-school programme (School 21, Bobby More Academy) providing additional places which have been funded centrally by the ESFA.

Housing Developer Contributions In addition to capital grants from central government, the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) and Section 106 agreements may also provide additional funds from residential developers to fund new school places. These are agreed by the planning authority, for Newham, either London Borough of Newham (LBN) or the London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC).

Special Provision Fund For Special Education Needs and Disability, the DfE announced the Special Provision capital fund to assist local authorities in delivering and improving such places. For this Newham has been awarded a total of £2,761,274 across three financial years from 2018/19 to 2020/21.

New Special Free School Bid The DfE invited expressions of interest from local authorities to establish new special free school provision in the autumn of 2018. Newham has submitted a bid for a 100 place special school and is awaiting the outcome. If the bid is unsuccessful consideration needs to be given on how the Council will meet the need for such provision.

2.4 Process to provide additional mainstream school places

Local authorities still maintain the duty to secure sufficient school provision, however the process in which to deliver this has altered through various legislative changes in school organisation and the introduction of free-schools and academies.

Forecasting future school demand against the known and future supply of provision is an important mechanism for fulfilling this duty. This enables local authorities to review and make recommendations on potential shortfalls and surplus provision of places. Local authorities and education providers are to work in partnership to ensure sufficiency and quality of provision.

Having identified a need for additional places a local authority is able to deliver this by:

Permanent Expansion of existing schools by increasing floor areas and extending school building’s to provide for a permanent increase in the number of pupils to be admitted. Expansions can be subject to legal processes, planning and building permissions. This often is seen as more cost-effective than opening a new school which entail higher build and

3https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/706188/ Wave_13_Map_of_estimated_number_of_secondary_places_needed.pdf Newham January School Census data (2006 to 2017)

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Temporary Expansions and Bulge Classes these are delivered for a fixed number of years, usually while a cohort moves through the school system. These may be within existing accommodation, mobile classrooms or permanent alterations to the school. They can require planning permission and adaptations to internal buildings, however statutory school organisation proposals are not required. Temporary expansions can be provided to meet an unexpected need or be planned to accommodate foreseen need.

Increases in Planned Admission Number the admitting authority for a school is able to provide additional places through an increase in admission numbers. This can be through increasing the PAN for future years (within existing accommodation) or over-offering of places.

Establishing a New School Generally there are two options in which a new school can be established.

The first route is through the DfE’s new free-school waves where providers express an interest to open provision within a local authority area. Capital funding for the provision is provided by the DfE/EFSA through the central free-schools programme. In Newham a number of schools have been delivered through this route. (Bobby More Academy, School 21).

The other option requires local authorities to seek proposals to establish an academy/free school under the Education Act 2011 free-school presumption. Under the presumption route the local authority is responsible for providing the site for the new school. It is the department’s expectation that the site be made available free or on a peppercorn basis by the local authority to the free-school provider. The local authority is also responsible for meeting the associated capital and pre/post-opening revenue costs. Basic need capital funding is provided on a non-ring-fenced basis; so that local authorities can provide the places that they need, including through new presumption schools. The decision on all new free school proposals lies with the Secretary of State. Newham has not delivered a free- school under the free-school presumption route.

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3.0 Forecasting for Mainstream School Places The statutory duty for the provision of school places includes forecasting future demand and making recommendations to adjust the supply accordingly. Newham uses a school projections method in line with other authorities. Data used to forecast school roll projections includes ONS live birth data for the borough; previous trends identified in the School Census; current and planned housing developments; cohort survival patterns; and cross- border movements. Trends in school applications, parental preference, school performance and local demographic knowledge are also used to inform the forecasts. Pupil forecasts provide a good indication of future need at a given point in time. It is important to emphasise the forecasts are not absolute certainties, as information and future trends are subject to change. Forecasts are reviewed annually in the spring and summer term as new data and trends emerge.

3.1 Planning areas Each year the DfE collects information on school places from local authorities as part of the annual school capacity SCAP collection. Local authorities are required to provide, at pupil planning area level, information about the number of registered pupils and the capacity of state funded schools in their area. The annual return also includes local authorities’ own forecasts of pupil numbers by year group and for whom primary and secondary education will be provided.

Guidance from DfE states that planning areas should take account of, local geography; parental preference patterns; distance between schools; schools located in close proximity;

For primary planning purposes Newham is divided into seven planning areas (shown in Figure 5):  Beckton;  Canning Town & Custom House;  East Ham;  Forest Gate;  Manor Park;  Plaistow; and  Stratford.

For secondary there is one planning area covering all of Newham.

The following sections gives an analysis of the planning areas showing current and projected supply and demand of school places, with opportunities for potential new provision highlighted.

Please note that capacity figures are based on the published admission numbers (PAN) for each year. The demand for school places is based on a number of factors and this is outlined in more detail in Appendix C – School place planning methodology.

School expansions are listed as either confirmed or unconfirmed. The latter will be due to a number of factors including, necessary consultations statutory or otherwise; planning approvals; the availability of sites; procurement; costs; and capital programme priorities. Unconfirmed expansions are subject to review.

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Figure 5 – Primary Place Planning Areas

3.2 Secondary School Places Forecasts Demand for secondary school places within Newham is forecasted to increase over the next five years. This is due to the larger primary cohorts which are now transitioning to secondary schools. The Local Plan will deliver approximately 19,000 new homes in Newham over the next five years and will place additional pressure on secondary school provision. The forecasted increases in secondary demand are in line with those being experienced in many London authorities. The existing supply of places and potential places, from additional free- schools, is insufficient to meet the forecasted demand.

Since the academic year 2011/12 to the current academic year 2018/19 there has been an increase of 32% of pupils on roll in Year 7 within Newham schools. The 2018/19 academic year evidenced an increase on 282 pupils from the previous year, equivalent to ten forms of entry.

Increase in Year 7 Numbers on Roll School Academic Year 7 Increase from Census Year Roll Previous Year Jan-12 2011/12 3509

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Jan-13 2012/13 3530 21 Jan-14 2013/14 3729 199 Jan-15 2014/15 3960 231 Jan-16 2015/16 4038 78 Jan-17 2016/17 4253 215 Jan-18 2017/18 4345 92 Oct-18* 2018/19 4627 282 Oct-18 Census data will be replaced by Jan-19 Census when available

Recent trends indicate that a higher number of Year 6 Newham pupils (in the last year of their primary education) are transitioning to take up Year 7 places in Newham (the first year of secondary education) than previously identified. This together with the higher number of primary pupils progressing through the school system translates to an increased demand for secondary school places.

Year 6 to Year 7 Transition Rate

Year 6 Pupils Transitioning to Year 7 Entry Year 7 September 2011 -8.50% September 2012 -6.81% September 2013 -4.90% September 2014 -4.14% September 2015 -4.52% September 2016 -6.38% September 2017 -3.29% September 2018* -2.57%  Based on Oct-18 School Census data

The following shows the actual numbers in Year 7 based on the Schools Census over the last three academic years, at each termly census point. Data will be added for 2018/19 when available.

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 National Offer 4103 4413 4441 4743 Day offers Oct census 3978 4263 4159 4627 Jan census 4038 4253 4214 May census 4046 4288 4231

Vacancies reported by schools – year 7, for the last three academic years

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2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Oct census 208 71 224 153 Jan census 196 32 222 May census 184 55 221

3.3 Schools within the Secondary Pupil Place Planning Area Bobby Moore Academy Langdon Academy Sarah Bonnell School Brampton Manor Academy Lister Community School School 21 Chobham Academy Little Ilford School St Angela's Ursuline School East London Science School London Design and St Bonaventure's RC School Engineering UTC Eastlea Community School Oasis Academy Silvertown Stratford School Forest Gate Community School Plashet School The Cumberland School Kingsford Community School Rokeby School The Royal Docks Community School

3.4 Year 7 Forecasts

Year 7 forecasts from the academic year 2019/20 are illustrated in the table below and include pupil yield from the Council’s Local Plan. The places available for 2019/20 include, a proposed 174 additional bulge places at Eastlea (60), Lister (60), St Bonaventure’s RC (24) and the possibility of Royal Docks increasing its PAN to lift its cap by 30. The planned expansions at Brampton Manor and Forest Gate will provide an additional 90 places (rising to 120 the year after) and 60 places from September 2019 respectively.

Academic Year Newham Year 7 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places Available 4,737 4,563 4,563 4,563 4,563 Potential Places (unconfirmed) 4,911 4,857 4,947 5,037 5,037 Places required 4,802 4,798 4,915 4,995 5,024

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5200 Forecast Year 7 Forecasts Actual + 2019 Bulge

5000 Unconfirmed Expansions

4800

4600

4400

4200

4000 Sept 19 Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept 22 Sept 23 Sept 24 Sept 25

Plans for proposed additional secondary places are underway to deliver further provision to meet the increased demand. These include permanent expansions at the following secondary schools categorised in the table above as unconfirmed expansions:

 Brampton Manor Academy – permanent expansion of 4 forms of entry (120 additional places per year group) to provide a total of 600 places. For September 2019 an additional 90 will be available incrementing to 120 in the subsequent academic year ;  Forest Gate – permanent expansion of 2 forms of entry (60 additional places per year group) to provide a total of 300 places from September 2019;

There are plans for two new free-schools to be provided through DfE approved free-school programme within the vicinity of strategic housing sites. These are both proposed by School 21, Campus a 3FE school and Sugar Lane a potential 2.8FE school. These are expected to open by September 2021 subject to suitable sites being secured.

The September 2019 forecasted position shows a deficit of two forms of entry against a supply of 4,737 known places available (includes temporary and bulge provision). Should the expansions at Brampton Manor Academy and Forest Gate be delivered for September 2019 with the proposed 174 bulge places at the above mentioned schools there would be sufficient places with marginal operating headroom of 2%. The need for ‘bulge’ classes for September 2019 will be kept under review once confirmed data is available on numbers of pupils offered places for year 7 entry, early in 2019. It is important to avoid excessive over provision of places in order to support Newham’s schools to be financially sustainable.

To ensure sufficient Year 7 places beyond September 2019 additional provision is required.

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3.5 Overall Secondary Forecasts

The graph below illustrates the forecasted secondary position (Year 7 to Year 11) including pupil yield from residential development in the five year housing supply. The forecasts show that without the above proposed increase in places the secondary estate would have a deficit of around 3,177 places, around 21 forms of entry by 2025/26. With the proposed additional school provision in place this deficit for 2025/26 reduces to 897 places or six forms of entry.

27000 Total (Years 7 to 11) Numbers on Roll including Pupil Yield

26000 Forecast with Pupil Yield Actual Actual + 2019 bulge 25000 Unconfirmed expansions

24000

23000

22000

21000

20000 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

The Council is facing increased demand for places as pupils move through the secondary school system. For the academic year 2017/18 provision was made for an additional Year 9 bulge class. There is continued pressure in the current academic year 2018/19 across the higher secondary year group.

The above graph illustrates the forecasted demand against the actual provision and provision with unconfirmed expansions. Unconfirmed/planned expansions include proposed permanent provision at Brampton Manor, Forest Gate; increases in PAN at Royal Docks, Oasis Academy and the Chobham Academy.

Head teachers of all secondary schools were consulted earlier in the autumn term to express an interest for future proposed permanent expansions. Lister, Rokeby and Little Ilford have expressed an interest for proposed expansions. Following an expression of interest, feasibilities will be conducted and schools to be expanded will be selected upon the following criteria: Ofsted rating of good or outstanding; Site and existing building capacity – ease of deliverability and associated capital costs; geographical location; parental preferences

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There are also proposals for two new free-schools to open as part of Wave 12 of the DfE free-schools programme to be provided by School 21.

Should any of the unconfirmed expansions be delayed or not occur this will increase the forecasted deficit. It is necessary to ensure pupil yield and cohort growths from the primary to secondary transfer is closely monitored.

To ensure the Council is able to provide the proposed secondary places funding needs to be aligned meet this need. Therefore, it is necessary to review all basic need funded programmes to ensure priority is given to the provision of secondary places.

Headlines for Secondary Planning Area

 Necessary to prioritise funding to provide additional secondary places

 Proposed future expansions are awaited at Brampton Manor, Forest Gate and Oasis  Proposed two new all-through free schools are anticipated  Bulge classes needed for 2019 – the number will be kept under review  Around 19,000 new homes in the next five years yield approximately 1,551

secondary pupils  With known future expansions, by 2025 there will be a deficit of around 900 places

3.6 Primary School Place Forecasts The starting point for forecasting primary school projections is the live births that have occurred to mothers resident in the borough. This data is provided by ONS annually in July for the previous calendar year. A birth to reception ratio is calculated to identify how many births transpire to reception aged pupil in a Newham state-funded school. The turn of the century evidenced an increase in births across England and Wales, with London recording birth rates substantially higher than the national average.

The increase in births and migration into Newham has been evidenced in the primary school roll. Since January 2010 the primary school roll has evidenced an increase of 6,000 additional pupils from Reception to Year 6. The Council has successfully responded to the increased demand by providing additional primary provision.

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Growth in Primary School Roll No. on School Academic Roll Census Year (YR-Y6) Growth %Change Jan-10 2009/10 27,906 Jan-11 2010/11 28,619 713 2.56% Jan-12 2011/12 29,810 1,191 4.16% Jan-13 2012/13 31,025 1,215 4.08% Jan-14 2013/14 31,944 919 2.96% Jan-15 2014/15 32,953 1,009 3.16% Jan-16 2015/16 33,666 713 2.16% Jan-17 2016/17 34,025 359 1.07% Jan-18 2017/18 34,282 257 0.76% Oct-18* 2018/19 34,237 -45 -0.13% *Oct-18 Census data will be replaced by Jan-19 Census when available

The growth in the primary sector is now reducing due to a decrease in births. The current academic year 2018/19 has seen a decrease in the primary school roll of 45 pupils across Reception to Year 6. This impact is most apparent in the Reception year group with a number of schools experiencing low roll numbers. A similar trend has been reported in many authorities across London including neighbouring authorities. Plausible reasons include the decrease in births from 2013 onwards combined with increasing housing costs, limited availability of family housing leading to families moving away from London.

Latest primary forecasts indicate that while overall there is sufficient primary provision across Newham, there are planning areas that will experience increased demand from residential housing developments from 2021 onwards. To ensure there is not an over-provision of school places it is necessary to ensure timeliness for delivery of proposed provision and closely monitor the delivery of new housing developments.

3.6.1 Borough wide Reception Forecasts The table below illustrates the demand and supply for future local authority wide reception places.

Academic Year Newham Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Year 2023/24 Places available 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 Places required 4,780 4,728 4,646 4,701 4,735

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3.6.2 Borough wide Primary Forecasts Across the borough there is sufficient primary provision (Reception to Year 6) until 2022 when demand increases due to pupil yields from housing.

Academic Year Newham Rec to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 37,655 37,940 38,135 38,330 38,510 Potential Places available 37,795 38,340 38,795 39,250 39,500 Places required 34,929 35,387 35,599 35,913 36,134

Primary forecast all year groups (Rec to Year 6) including pupil yield 40,000

39,000

38,000

37,000

36,000

35,000

34,000

33,000 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Forecast with Pupil Yield Known places Potential places

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3.7 Beckton Planning Area The Beckton planning area is forecasted to have shortfall of primary places with 1,438 new homes planned in the next five years. Estimated primary pupil yield for Beckton is 255 primary pupils. There are a number of strategic development sites for housing with the Beckton planning area and a potential for a new school in the Albert Basin development.

Ellen Wilkinson Primary School North Beckton Primary School Gallions Primary School Winsor Primary School

3.7.1 Beckton Reception Forecasts Reception forecasts are in line with Reception places in the Beckton area.

Academic Year Beckton Reception Year 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 330 330 330 330 330 Forecasts 286 283 278 281 285

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Beckton Reception Year 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places required Places available

3.7.2 Beckton Primary Forecasts YR to Y6 The anticipated pupil yield and primary cohort growth will create additional pressure on the demand for school places within Beckton.

Academic Year Beckton Rec to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 Forecasts 2,152 2,216 2,314 2,361 2,347

Beckton Primary YR to Y6 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places required Places available

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3.8 Canning Town and Custom House Primary Planning Area Canning Town and Custom House planning areas have a number of strategic sites with large scale planned housing development of 7,336 new homes. This will generate an estimated pupil yield of 1,262 primary pupils. Additional primary places (subject to the housing developments coming on board) will be required from September 2021 onwards.

Current proposed plans for expansion of Hallsville School will be postponed until 2022 when the places maybe required. In addition to this there are plans for a 2FE Royal Wharf free- school to be established from the wave 11 free-schools programme.

Britannia Village Keir Hardie Primary St Joachim's RC Primary Calverton Primary Ravenscroft Primary St Luke's Primary Drew Primary Rosetta Primary Star Primary Hallsville Primary Scott Wilkie Primary

Royal Wharf primary (Wave 11 free school)

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3.8.1 Canning Town and Custom House Reception Forecasts There is a sufficiency of Reception Places in the Canning Town and Custom House planning area.

Academic Year Canning Town Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Year Places available 810 810 810 810 810 Places required 639 632 621 628 633

Canning Town and Custom House Reception 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places required Places available

3.8.2 Canning Town and Custom House Primary Forecasts The table and chart below illustrate the demand and supply for places within this planning area. Confirmed expansions at St Joachims and the Royal Wharf free school have been incorporated into the places available. Potential places available include the expansion at Hallsville from 2022 onwards.

Academic Year Canning Town Rec to 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Year 6 Places available 5,160 5,250 5,340 5,430 5,520 Potential Places available 5,160 5,280 5,400 5,520 5,640 Places required 4,813 5,030 5,242 5,498 5,708

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6,000 Canning Town and Custom House

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Academic Year Places required Places available (Confirmed) Potential Places available(Unconfirmed)

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3.9 East Ham Planning Area The East Ham planning area has the highest pupil population of all the primary planning areas. Nearly 1,400 new homes are expected in the next five years. There is a surplus of primary place which will be available for the anticipated increases from the additional housing.

Altmore Infant Hartley Primary Roman Road Primary Brampton Primary Langdon Academy St Michael's Catholic Central Park Primary Lathom Junior St Stephen's Primary Cleves Primary Nelson Primary Vicarage Primary

3.9.1 East Ham Reception Forecasts There is not a need for additional reception places in the East Ham planning area.

Academic Year East Ham Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Year Places available 1,110 1,110 1,110 1,110 1,110 Places required 987 977 979 999 966

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East Ham Reception Year 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places required Places available

3.9.2 East ham Primary Forecasts YR-Y6 There is sufficiency of primary provision within this planning area as depicted in the data below. The surpluses are higher than 5% but below 10%.

Academic Year East Ham Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 to Year 6 Places available 7,740 7,740 7,770 7,770 7,770 Places required 7,176 7,215 7,231 7,203 7,021

East Ham Primary YR-Y6 7,800

7,600

7,400

7,200

7,000

6,800

6,600 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Places required Places available

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4.0 Forest Gate Planning Area Forest Gate planning area is in the north of the borough bordering Redbridge and Waltham Forest. There is a high density of housing, mainly Victorian terraced family housing. The Local Plan identifies 186 new homes in the next five years, which is significantly minimal when compared to other areas within the borough. It is estimated that there will be an additional 32 primary pupils over the next five years from additional housing.

Should there be a requirement for additional places there is potential to expand Odessa and St James schools.

Earlham Primary Odessa Infant St Antony's RC Primary Woodgrange Infant Elmhurst Primary Sandringham Primary St James' CofE Junior Godwin Junior Shaftesbury Primary William Davies Primary

4.0.1 Forest Gate Reception Forecasts Reception forecasts with places available are illustrated below.

Academic Year Forest Gate Reception Year 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 690 690 690 690 690 Places required 640 633 622 630 638

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Forest Gate Reception 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Places required Places available

4.0.2 Forest Gate Primary Forecasts YR-Y6 Academic Year Forest Gate Reception to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 4,800 4,830 4,830 4,830 4,830 Places required 4,549 4,551 4,541 4,515 4,481

Forest Gate Reception to Year 6 8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400 7,200 7,000 6,800 6,600 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places required Places available

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4.1 Manor Park Primary Planning Area The Manor Park primary Planning area is in the north-east of the borough and borders the neighbouring borough of Redbridge. This is a high density of Victorian housing within this area with very little land for additional housing developments. There are no proposed new housing units within this area. Forecasts indicate a healthy surplus of places and there is no requirement for further provision.

Avenue Primary Kensington Primary Sheringham Primary Dersingham Primary Monega Primary Sir John Heron Primary Essex Primary Salisbury Primary St Winefride's RC Primary

4.1.1 Manor Park Reception Forecasts

Academic Year Manor Park Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 800 800 800 800 800 Places required 739 731 719 732 737

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Manor Park Reception Forecast 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Forecasts Places available

4.1.2 Manor Park Primary Forecasts Academic Year Manor Park Reception to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 5,570 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 Places required 5,238 5,237 5,200 5,168 5,152

Manor Park Primary 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Places required Places available

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4.2 Plaistow Primary Planning Area The Plaistow primary planning area has sufficient primary provision. There are a negligible 162 new homes planned in the next five years yielding an estimated 28 primary pupils over next five years. The planning area has sufficient places for the level of demand.

Curwen Primary New City Primary Selwyn Primary St Helen's Primary Grange Primary Plaistow Primary Southern Road Primary Tollgate Primary Kaizen Primary Portway Primary St Edward's Primary Upton Cross Primary

4.2.1 Plaistow Reception Forecasts Academic Year Plaistow Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 990 990 990 990 990 Places required 848 839 825 834 845

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Plaistow Reception Forecasts 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Forecasts Places available

4.2.1 Plaistow Primary Forecasts Academic Year Plaistow Reception to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 6,750 6,780 6,810 6,840 6,840 Places required 6,023 5,994 5,993 5,981 5,940

Plaistow Primary Forecasts 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Places required Places available

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4.3 Stratford Primary Planning Area The Stratford primary planning area incorporates the areas of Stratford and West Ham. The Stratford area has evidenced significant change with regard to housing developments and investment from the Olympic Park and stadium. There are plans for a further 6,722 new homes in the next five years, with an estimated primary pupil yield of 1,156 pupils.

Reception forecasts for this planning area indicate sufficient provision in the short-term. The pupil yield from the proposed housing developments may produce greater demand for overall primary places within this planning area. This will need to be monitored to ensure timeliness of any proposed additional places is in line with occupancy of the housing developments. There are proposed expansions at Colegrave, Maryland and Ranelagh primary schools within this area. Two free-school proposals have also been confirmed (School 21 Sugar House and School 21 Campus) to provide all-through education. It is necessary to evaluate all proposed provision to ensure provision it is brought on in line with housing occupancy. Due to this it has been projects at Maryland and Colegrave have been selected to be postponed by one to two years, as they are in the early stages.

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Bobby Moore Academy Gainsborough Primary Ranelagh Primary Carpenters Primary Manor Primary School 21 Chobham Academy Maryland Primary St Francis' Catholic Primary Colegrave Primary Park Primary West Ham Church Primary

4.3.1 Stratford Reception Academic Year Stratford Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 810 810 810 810 810 Places required 652 658 651 655 655

Stratford Reception 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Forecasts Places available

4.3.2 Stratford Primary Academic Year Stratford Reception to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places available 5,325 5,400 5,475 5,550 5,610 Potential Places 5,355 5,520 5,735 6,040 6,330 Places required 5,104 5,263 5,504 5,791 5,748

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7,000 Stratford Primary 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Places required Places available (Confirmed) Potential Places available(Unconfirmed)

Headlines Primary Provision

 Birth rate within Newham is falling in line with London births  Since January 2010 the primary roll has increased by 6,000 pupils  Newham has accommodated this increase by investing in its primary provision  Sufficient Reception places across Newham  Next increases are likely to be from housing developments  Increases expected in Canning Town & Custom House, Stratford and Beckton  Pupil yield from housing dependent upon various factors occupancy, social, economic  Proposed planned provision in the primary sector to be reviewed and postponed

(where possible) to ensure timeliness of provision in line with new housing occupancy

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5.0 Provision for Special Educational Needs and Disabilities Local authorities have legal duties to identify and assess the special educational needs (“SEN”) and disability of children and young people within their area and ensure there is sufficient provision to meet the needs.

5.1 Duties for children and young people aged 0 to 25 with SEND4

The relevant legislation is within Part 3 of the Children and Families Act 2014 and associated regulations. It sets out the statutory special educational needs and disability (SEND) system for children and young people aged 0 to 25 in England. The Act places duties on Local Authorities to ensure:

 reasonable adjustments for disabled children and young people; and  auxiliary aids and services to disabled children and young people.  a clearer focus on the views of parents, children and young people and their role in decision- making. Guidance is now provided on the joint planning and commissioning of services to ensure close co-operation between education, health services and social care;  0-25 Education, Health and Care Plans(EHCP);  support that pupils and students should receive in education and training settings;  focus on support that enables those with SEN to succeed in their education and make a successful transition to employment and adulthood;  parents can express a preference for any maintained school, academy, free school or non-maintained school.

5.2 SEND Provision

Most children and young people with special educational needs and disability (SEND) have their needs met in mainstream provision and Newham has a strong legacy and commitment towards inclusion. Around 90% of high needs funded pupils with autism attend mainstream schools, including resourced provision. The high levels of need of a small number of children and young people require even more support and expertise than can be offered in mainstream and resourced provision. The existing provision at JFK School is at capacity and more pupils are having to attend Out of Borough (OOB) provision due to the lack of suitable places.

In their ‘Do the Maths 2018’ report London Councils highlighted that London will require approximately 2,340 specialist secondary school places over the next five years. The report states the average capital cost of providing a specialist school place is £67,043 (three times the cost of an average mainstream place at £23,641), with some specialist places for severe complex needs costing £300,000 per place.5

The increases in the school aged population are well documented rising by around 21% from 2010 to 2018. Over the same period, the increase in high needs funded pupils has risen by

4 Special educational needs and disability code of practice: 0 to 25 years – January 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/398815/SEND_Code_of_Pra ctice_January_2015.pdf 5 https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/our-key-themes/children-and-young-people/education-and-school- places/do-maths-2017/special

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88% and analysis shows that the highest rise is ASD funded pupils increasing by 278%. Out of Borough (OOB) ASD places have increased by 54 pupils. The next highest increase was SEMH that increased by 11 pupils.

The current high number of primary ASD pupils will transfer into the secondary sector in a similar way as also seen in the mainstream sector. Based on school census data only, without any further increases in numbers and a year 6 to year 7 transfer rate of 100%, this would see the numbers on roll in schools increase by around 53% over the next 10 years.

There are two special schools in Newham as shown in Table 1.

Table 1 - Summary of special school provision

Age Range Year Groups Specialism John F Kennedy Special 5 to 19 15 PMLD/ASD5 School Academy Eleanor Smith School and Primary Support Service - 5 to 16 12 SEMH6 Academy In Newham, there are 21 specialist resource provisions based in a nursery and mainstream schools providing 315 places, as shown in Table 2. Table 2 – Current Resource Provision

School Name & Cohort Provision Commissioned RP Need Places Brampton Primary SCLN 10 Calverton Primary ASD 21 Cleves Primary SCLN 23 Colegrave Primary SCLN 14 Cumberland Secondary ASD 20 Eastlea Secondary SCLN 14 Essex Primary ASD 14 Gainsborough Primary ASD 14 Gallions Primary ASD 8 Langdon ASD 26 Lister Secondary HI 18 Little Ilford Secondary ASD 5 Nelson Primary SSLD 14 North Beckton Primary SCLN 14 Ravenscroft Primary ASD 10 Ronald Openshaw Nursery SCLN 6 Selwyn Primary HI 32 Sir John Heron Primary SCLN 14 Stratford Secondary ASD 6

5 PMLD Profound and Multiple Learning Disabilities and ASD Autistic Spectrum Disorder 6 SEMH – Social Emotional and Mental Health,

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Stratford Secondary SCLN 5 Royal Docks Secondary SCLN 25 Tollgate Primary ASD 14 Ranelagh Primary ASD 8 Sandringham ASD 8 Newham College ASD 6 Totals 335

5.3 An inclusive approach to special educational needs and disability (SEND) The Council undertook a wide consultation in 2017 identifying key areas for development across services, phases of education and broad areas of special educational needs and disabilities. The findings formed the Best for All strategy that is part of a wider Council strategy to improve education, health and well-being outcomes for children and young people. This strategy provides a blueprint for our providers and all those working in the local authority and health services with children, young people and their families. This includes working with education providers and universal services where necessary to be inclusive of children and young people with special educational needs or who are disabled.

5.4 SEND Needs analysis There has been significant growth in the number of children and young people with high level of needs, particularly complex autism, and we are forecasting significant further growth particularly as the current increase in primary numbers moves into secondary.

Between 2010 and 2018 the number of high needs funded pupils has risen by 88%. The highest rise is Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) funded pupils (increasing by 278%). There are 68 pupils placed out of borough, a rise of 113% in the last five years.

The trend for funded ASD pupils suggests a further increase of around 800 pupils to 2025. Around 90% of high needs funded pupils with autism attend mainstream schools, including resourced provision. If this proportion is maintained, this would mean 720 more pupils in mainstream and resourced provision; and 80 more pupils attending out of borough settings and borough special school places.

5.5 SEND Emerging plans The high level of inclusion that Newham is well known for both nationally and internationally is being maintained. This is supported by the 34 additional resource provision places made for September 2018 rising to an additional 105 places in the next two to three years; 79 of those places are specifically for ASD children and young people. However no additional ASD places have been secured in the secondary sector.

Reducing the number of pupils attending schools in other local authorities and independent settings is an essential part of the approach. This would at the same time reduce in real

38 | P a g e terms the levels of expenditure from the high needs block of the dedicated schools grant for fees and reduce the level of expenditure for out of borough transport.

There is a particular focus on increasing places in secondary provision where the current and forecast demand is greatest. This can be achieved through:

 Increasing secondary resource provision for ASD. Resourced provision at secondary would provide inclusive education to reflect the primary setting. However this will not meet the needs of some pupils.  Potential for a new special school focussing on ASD. A new school could be a centre of excellence supporting the needs of all schools in Newham. The opportunity to work in partnership with mainstream, resourced provision and special schools alike could make this new school a beacon for good practice and expertise across Newham. A school could play a role in driving up standards for SEND across Newham, with a greater concentration of specialist staff than is possible in other provision. Newham submitted an expression of interest to DfE for a 100 place SEN special free-school focussing on ASD. If a special school bid is approved the design and build costs will be met by DfE. This is estimated at £15 to £20 million. If the special school bid is unsuccessful then consideration will be needed on how to meet the increasing number of pupils with ASD where a special school place is needed. Any alternative option would require additional capital resources.  Extending existing special school provision. Plans are in development to provide additional short term special school places to meet the current shortfall. Further options are being explored.

5.6 Pupil Referral Units and Alternative Provision Local authorities are responsible for arranging suitable full-time education for those pupils that are permanently excluded and for those pupils - because of illness or other reasons – would not receive suitable education without such provision.

Newham has a range of provision for such pupils at Tunmarsh, Eleanor Smith School and the New Directions. The increase in Newham’s pupil population has evidenced a direct impact of increased demand for PRU and alternative provision placements. In particular there is a need for additional PRU and alternative provision places at Key Stage 3. There is an increase in demand for students with SEMH needs, which is already showing placement pressure at Eleanor Smith, in both primary and secondary settings.

The PRUs are also facing a demand in short term Directed Placements from schools to deliver intervention work to prevent permanent exclusions. To ensure mainstream schools are supported for reintegration and assessments to prevent exclusions there needs to be availability of places within the PRU settings.

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Appendix A: Births

Much of the increase in the primary school numbers can be attributed to an increasing birth rate. From the calendar year 2000 to 2012 the Newham birth rate increased by 1,499 births or 30%. Since the turn of the century births hit their highest point in 2012 nationally. Increases across London are illustrated in the table below. Increases in London Live Births from 2000 to 2012 (Source ONS) Increase 2000 Borough to 2012 % Barking & Dagenham 1636 70% Redbridge 1607 50% Hounslow 1533 50% Greenwich 1384 43% Harrow 1025 40% Wandsworth 1503 38% Hillingdon 1239 38% Waltham Forest 1311 37% Barnet 1455 35% Tower Hamlets 1243 35% Merton 874 34% Ealing 1451 33% Brent 1319 33% Enfield 1222 32% Lewisham 1208 31% Newham 1499 30% Croydon 1312 29% Kingston upon Thames 510 28% Havering 583 25% Sutton 542 25% Richmond upon Thames 532 22% Southwark 908 22% Bromley 589 17% Hackney and City of London 636 16% Bexley 399 15% Westminster 370 14% Haringey 475 13% Lambeth 481 11% Islington 279 10% Camden 195 7% Hammersmith & Fulham 167 7% Kensington & Chelsea 4 0% GREATER LONDON 29491 28% ENGLAND AND WALES 125349 21%

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Newham’s increase has been higher than the London and national average although not as high as some of its neighbouring boroughs. Since their peak in 2012 births have now stabilised and are now decreasing nationally, across London as well as locally. The table below indicates the position in Newham.

Newham Live Births (ONS) Newham Live Births (Source ONS) 7,000

6,500 6,426 6,335 6,000 6,262 6,267 6,227 6,023 6,027 5,966 5,500

5,000

4,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Calendar Year

Following an increase in 2015, births have decreased for two consecutive years with a decrease of 199 births from 2015 to 2016, and a decrease of 111 births from 2016 to 2017. This decrease is in line with national and London averages. The latest National Population Projections produced by ONS in November 2017 forecast a reduction in births across England and Wales from previously forecasted.

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Appendix B: Types of Schools in Newham

There are 89 state-funded schools within Newham as illustrated in Table 17 (excludes nursery schools and post-16). This number can change in line with the way schools are organised, for example, schools may be amalgamated, new schools can open or schools can be closed.

Table 1: State-Funded Schools in Newham All- through Primary Secondary Special Total Academy/Free School 4 28 8 2 42 Community School 30 6 36 Voluntary Aided School 6 2 8 Voluntary Controlled School 2 2 University Technical College* 1 1 Total 4 66 17 2 89 *UTC are academies with provision for 14 to 16

Approximately 47% of state-funded schools in Newham are academy schools or free-school, this number is more prevalent in the primary sector with 42% and in the secondary sector 53% being an academy or free-school. All schools within the special schools setting and all- through settings are either an academy or free-school.

All state-funded schools within the primary, special and all-through settings are co- educational admitting boys and girls. Within the secondary setting there are five single- gender schools representing 29% of the schools in the secondary sector. Of these there are three schools that admit girls only and two schools that only admit boys. There are no selective schools within Newham. Of the schools in the primary sector eight or 12% are faith schools and in the secondary sector there are two faith schools representing 12%.

From a school place planning perspective many factors need to be considered when determining how to increase existing provision. Not all schools have equal parental preference, there are limitations to geographical accessibility, or whether an existing school site would lend itself to an expansion, the impact of an expansion on existing school rolls. Consideration needs to be given to maintaining a balance of gender, identifying impacts on cross-border mobility as some schools particularly faith schools have traditionally taken from a wider area.

7 Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics: January 2018 - Local Authority Tables https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/schools-pupils-and-their-characteristics-january-2018

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Appendix C: School place planning methodology

In order that the council can meet its statutory duty to ensure sufficient school places are available for children in the borough, the balance of places is assessed for the admissions entry points for primary (Year R) and secondary (Year 7). This identifies where there are pressures and where there are surplus places.

To identify the balance of places, the current supply is considered against the projected demand for places, which takes into account the demand from the existing demographic as well as the projected demand from new housing. The starting point for primary projections is to calculate the projected Reception roll using the live birth rate. A birth to reception transition rate is used based on historic trends of live births in the borough that have translated into a Reception pupil on the January School Census. Historic cohort trends are used to roll forward the year groups to forecast for all other year groups. For secondary forecasts a Year 6 to Year 7 transition ratio is used. Newham is a net exporter of Year 7 pupils, evidenced through the loss of pupils from Year 6 to Year 7.

The current supply of places is not considered as the ‘net capacity’ of a school, which is a government determined formula used to calculate the capacity of a building based on the amount of teaching space considered available. Although the net capacity can be used to inform the Planned Admission Number (PAN), the two figures are not directly related and a PAN can often be higher or lower than the net capacity of a school.

Forecast accuracy is determined by comparing the actual pupils on roll at the January School Census against the forecasted position. Forecasts are validated using the October Census as an interim measure. A 5% accuracy margin for pupil forecasts is generally recommended. The October 2018 School census indicate that projections for the 2018/19 academic year are well within the 5% error margin.

2018/19 Forecast Accuracy compared to October 2018 School Census R Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y11 Oct-18 Census 4756 4915 5012 4922 4889 4807 4936 4627 4414 4304 4152 4040 Forecast for2018/19 4737 4832 5098 5071 4990 4874 5018 4665 4390 4321 4131 4068 Difference -19 -83 86 149 101 67 82 38 -24 17 -21 28 Accuracy -0.40% -1.69% 1.72% 3.03% 2.07% 1.39% 1.66% 0.82% -0.54% 0.39% -0.51% 0.69%

School Preferences

Despite significant expansion in the size of the population, a relatively high percentage of Newham’s young people receive a place in their first, second or third preference school8.

Four year olds starting school for the first time at reception year, in September 2018, 98.5% were offered a place at one of their preference schools and 91.7% were offered their first preference. This is higher than the national average of 90% and higher than the averages for London and Inner London areas at 85.9% and 85%.

8Secondary and primary school applications and offers: 2018 – https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/secondary-and-primary-school-application-and-offers-2018

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For young people starting secondary school in Year 7 for September 2018, 97.7% were offered a place at one of their preference schools and 91.7% were offered their first preference. This is higher than the national average of 86.6% and higher than the averages for London and Inner London areas at 86.6% and 84.7% respectively.

Parental choice and local geography is such that Newham experiences significant levels of cross-border movement, both in and out of the borough. 2,842 children and young people living in Newham attend schools elsewhere is as follows:

Additional movement in and out of the borough may also be linked to residential developments and associated new schools. For the purposes of place planning these are not factored into the forecasting process as any consistent changes would be reflected in increases or decreases in the forecast factors.

Planning for the impact of new housing Any new homes are considered to generate additional pupils and place additional demand on school places. A pupil yield of 17.2% for primary aged pupils and 9% for secondary aged pupils is factored into the forecasts. This is a locally adopted formula based on local research and trends from Newham residential developments. This is based on the Council’s policy for the size and tenure of residential developments being:  Market – 65%  Affordable - 35% (60% social rented and 40% intermediate)  1 bedroom at 30.5%  2 bedrooms at 30.5%  3 bedrooms or more 39%

Number of Homes (Units) 500 1000 2000 3000 Pupil Yield Primary 86 172 344 516 Secondary 45 90 180 270 Additional classes Primary 3 6 12 18 required.9 Secondary 2 3 6 9 Table C1 - Final pupil yield from housing developments and the number of classes eventually required per year group

School provision for new housing is planned in two ways. Large developments, which may include multiple smaller developments, over a total of 2,500 homes, are usually planned for independently. Such developments include: Royal Wharf; Sugar House Lane and potentially Albert Basin. For such developments, primary provision will usually be identified and commissioned exclusively for that development through Section 106 agreements.

Developments that are not as large and planned for within the existing provision, for example conversion of commercial premises; or maximising the use of existing sites, etc. will also yield additional pupils, in addition to the anticipated pressure from birth rates or pupils already within the school system. For such developments the CIL applies and education and school infrastructure is one of many infrastructure requirements from these contributions.

9 Additional classes are shown as determined on 30 pupils per class and therefore whole classes are shown, in some cases there would be need for additional infrastructure or specialist provision in addition to classes only. Some residential developments would require new schools rather than just additional classes. For example, 2,000 homes would be best accommodated in a 2FE (420 places) primary school; a 5,000 unit development produce sufficient places for 4FE (480 places) secondary school.

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Appendix D: Capital Basic Need Projects Undertaken

Based on the DfE Allocation between 2011/12 & 2020/21: £228,523,658

Completed Projects Project Detail (nearest £000k) Altmore Infant 1FE Expansion / Bulges (Infant classes only) £4,300,000 Avenue Primary 1FE Expansion £5,500,000 Brampton Primary 1FE Expansion £7,500,000 Calverton Primary 1FE Expansion £5,300,000 Central Park Primary 1FE Expansion £4,800,000 Cleves Primary (Ph1) Remodelling £1,300,000 Cleves Primary (Ph2) Remodelling / bulge classes £2,800,000 Curwen Primary (Ph2) 1FE Expansion £3,600,000 Drew Primary 0.5FE Expansion / Remodelling £3,600,000 Earlham Primary 0.5FE Expansion £4,600,000 Elmhurst Primary Remodelling £400,000 Gallions Primary 1FE Expansion / Resource base £2,000,000 Godwin Junior 1 FE Expansion (Junior classes only) £3,700,000 Hartley Primary 1FE Expansion £4,900,000 Kensington Primary 1FE Expansion £4,300,000 Lathom Junior 1FE Expansion (Junior classes only) £3,300,000 Manor Primary Replace Kitchen / dining block £1,500,000 Nelson Primary Replace Kitchen / dining block £1,000,000 Nelson Primary Remodelling / bulge classes £1,700,000 New City Primary 0.5FE Expansion £2,600,000 North Beckton Primary 1FE Expansion £3,900,000 Park Primary 0.5FE Expansion £3,800,000 Portway Primary 1FE Expansion £4,100,000 Ravenscroft Primary 1FE Expansion £4,000,000 Roman Road Primary 2FE Expansion £7,600,000 Rosetta Primary Kitchen block / remodelling £1,900,000 Salisbury Primary 1FE Expansion £3,200,000 Sandringham Primary Remodelling / bulge classes £3,300,000 Sir John Heron Primary 0.5FE Expansion £2,400,000 Southern Road Primary Remodelling £3,100,000 St.James CofE Junior Remodelling £300,000 St.Stephen's Primary 1FE Expansion £4,000,000 Tollgate Primary 1FE Expansion £4,300,000 Upton Cross Primary 3FE Expansion £7,000,000 West Ham Church Primary Remodelling / bulge classes £3,700,000 William Davies Primary Remodelling £500,000 Winsor Primary 1FE Expansion £2,700,000 Woodgrange Infant 1FE Expansion (Infant classes only) £3,500,000

JF Kennedy (Beckton) Expansion £1,200,000

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JF Kennedy (Stratford) Remodelling £500,000

Kingsford 1FE Expansion (contrib to School project) £1,300,000 Little Ilford 1FE Expansion (contrib to PSBP project) £2,000,000 Plashet 1FE Expansion (contrib to School project) £4,300,000 Sarah Bonnell 1FE Expansion (contrib to School project) £1,000,000 St.Angela's RC 6th Form remodelling £1,300,000 St.Bonaventure's RC 6th Form remodelling £1,400,000

Edith Kerrison Nursery Remodelling / expansion £1,600,000 Kay Rowe Nursery Remodelling / expansion £1,100,000

On Site / Design Stage Carpenters Primary Contribution to Regen £1,100,000 Colegrave Primary 1FE Expansion/replace mobiles £10,300,000 Ranelagh Primary 0.5FE Expansion £5,200,000 Selwyn Primary 0.5FE Expansion / Early Years £3,400,000

Eleanor Smith New Building £11,700,000 Tunmarsh / other SEND Scope to be agreed £1,300,000

Brampton Manor 4FE Expansion £23,700,000 Forest Gate 2FE Expansion £13,400,000 Lister Bulge Classes £1,000,000 Secondary Schools Expansions to be agreed £24,700,000

Unallocated balances £4,400,000

£247,900,000

Difference between total 2011-2021 Basic Need Allocations due to other funding sources forming total budget : Primary Capital Programme (PCP) / Capital Maintenance Programmes / Planned Maintenance Programmes School Contributions (Revenue & DFC) / Section 106 Funding / Basic Need (prior to 2011/12) / Other

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Appendix E: 16-19 place analysis and projections Projecting demand for places in 16-19 education and training in Newham is both more complex and difficult than planning pupil place needs pre-16. This is because the majority of schools in Newham are 11-16, so there is necessarily significant student mobility at age 16. Options at age 16, both in terms of the range of institutions and the options available to individual students are also determined by prior attainment by age 16.

Students also have a choice to travel outside of Newham for their education or training at age 16. There is significant mobility outwards at age 16 from Newham, and significant mobility inwards at 16, due to the large FE college in Newham and the large sixth form college.

Projections for 16-19 places in Newham therefore need to be considered in terms of:

 Newham secondary school pupil projections  Current size of Year 12 & 13 resident cohorts in Newham  Current Key Stage 4 attainment in Newham schools  Current destinations following Key Stage 4  Current 16-18 take up of places in Newham institutions by detailed age, Level, course/qualification type offered  Any additional planned increases in places by Newham providers

The assumptions behind the projections are therefore that:

 Sufficient places need to be available in Newham to meet increased demand  GCSE grade achievement is unlikely to increase for the next few years due to the introduction of numeric grades and the period of settlement that this will entail  Demand for qualifications at Levels 1-3 is likely to remain fairly stable in percentage terms, but is projected to increase in numerical terms due to increases in cohorts  Demand for academic/applied/technical Level 3 qualifications is likely to remain stable in percentage terms, but is projected to increase in numerical terms  The percentage of pupils from Newham 11-16 schools taking up places in Newham is increasing year on year, and is projected to continue to increase – both due to the increase in Newham’s 16-18 population, and increases in 16-18 populations in neighbouring boroughs, which will result in less places being available for out of borough residents from Newham  16-19 projections are purely based on projected pupil numbers from Newham schools and current take-up of Newham post-16 provision – the projections cannot predict the effect of variables such as student choice, sudden changes in Key Stage 4 attainment, changes in qualifications, or changes in the popularity of institutions, which can all affect demand. The projections therefore need to be viewed as a guide, and not an exact prediction of actual numbers or demand.

16-19 Projections

Actual Projections Table 1: Year 11 September 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pupil projections 3799 4068 4173 4448 4608 5008 5351 5356 Year 12 projected increase/decrease +160 +269 +105 +275 +160 +400 +343 +5 Enter Year 12 in September 3858^ 3799 4068 4173 4448 4608 5008 5351

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Year 13 in September 4015^ 4101 3799 4068 4173 4448 4608 5008 Total Size of Year 12 +13 projected 7873 7900 7867 8241 8621 9056 9616 10359 cohort** ^Data from 15Billion Sept 17 and May 18. Year 13 cohorts always increase, so the year 13 projections above are likely to be an underestimate Table 2: Year 12 & 13 projected demand 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (residents)*** E & Level 1 + no level 13% - 1027 1023 1071 1121 1177 1250 1347 Level 2 15% - 1185 1180 1236 1292 1359 1442 1554 Level 3 72% - 5688 5664 5934 6208 6520 6924 7458 Total - 7900 7867 8241 8621 9056 9616 10359 -data on 2017/18 take up not available from ESFA until Dec 18 ** assumes 100% participation. Assume tolerance of 5% +/-

*** based on 16/17 take up of 16-19 places anywhere by Newham 16-19 residents (ESFA)

Table 3: Level 3 projected demand 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (residents years 12 &13) A Level 74% - 4209 4191 4391 4594 4825 5124 5519 Level 3 Applied and Technical 26% - 1479 1473 1543 1614 1695 1800 1939 *introduction of Level 3 T Levels 2021

The tables above show that the number of 16-19 places required by Newham residents is projected to increase by 2,459 over the seven academic years from 2018/19-2024/25.

72% of the places required are projected to be at Level 3, and of those, 74% of the Level 3 places required are projected to be A Level. The increase in the number of A Level places required by Newham residents over the seven year period is projected to be 1,310 (53%).

Table 4: Year 12 & 13 projected 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 demand (institutions)*** E & Level 1 + no level 17% - 1343 1338 1401 1466 1539 1635 1761 (1082)*** Level 2 18% - 1422 1416 1484 1552 1630 1731 1865 (1169)*** Level 3 65% - 5135 5113 5356 5603 5887 6250 6733 (4200)*** Total - 7900 7867 8241 8621 9056 9616 10359 6451*** ***based on 16/17 take up of 16-19 places at Newham 16-19 institutions (ESFA)

Table 5: Level 3 projected demand 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (institutions) A Level 70 % (School Sixth Forms & - 3594 3579 3749 3922 4121 4375 4713 Newvic) Level 3 Applied and Technical 30 % - 1541 1534 1607 1681 1766 1875 2020 *introduction of Level 3 T Levels 2021 - data on 2017/18 take up not available from ESFA until Dec 18 *** based on 16/17 take up of 16-19 places in Newham institutions (ESFA)

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Tables 4 & 5 above, project the demand by Level for 16-19 institutions based in Newham. The demand is projected, based on size of Newham’s projected cohort and percentage take- up of provision by level at Newham institutions in 2016/17. 73% of the take-up in Newham institutions in 2016/17 was by Newham residents, and the other 27% was from neighbouring boroughs including 6% from Barking and Dagenham, 4% Redbridge, 4% Tower Hamlets, and 3% Waltham Forest. Demand for A Level places at Newham institutions is projected to increase by 964 places over the period 2020/21 – 2024/25.

Projections are reviewed annually, and updated to reflect any changes in pupil population, GCSE achievement, and take-up of 16-18 education by Level or Level 3 qualification type.

Current and planned places in Newham

ESFA funded 16-19 places 2018/19

Institution Name Institution type Provision type 2018/19 funded places Total 7,837 (7688 in 17/18) Newham College FE College Level 1-3 Applied and Technical 1,871 Newtec** IPP Level 1-3 Applied and Technical 327 Building Crafts College** IPP Level 1-3 Applied and Technical 92 NewVIc Sixth Form A Level, L3, L1-2 Applied and 2,361 College Technical St Angela’s School VI Form A Level 357 St Bonaventure’s School VI Form A Level 309 Brampton Manor Academy Academy A Level 585 Chobham Academy Academy A Level + L3 Applied 303 London Academy of Excellence Free School A Level 461 (LAE) School 21 Free School A Level 278 East London Science School (ESS) Free School A Level 87 Newham Collegiate (NCS) Free School A Level 502 LDEUTC** UTC A Level + L3 Applied and 205 Technical London Skills for Growth** IPP L1 & L2 Applied and Technical 100^ *the above places are 16-19 study programme, and do not include apprenticeship places ** Apprenticeship provider ^estimated

Planned increases

 London Academy of Excellence plan to increase their places by 230 across two year groups when they move to larger premises  Newham Collegiate are consulting on increasing their places by 200. This would result in an increase of 100 places in 2022 and a further 100 places in 2023  East London Science School will have a Year 12 & 13 cohort in 2019, so will increase by approx. 90 places in 2019, and will increase to 200 when they move to permanent premises  Bobby Moore Academy will open a sixth form in 2022 with an estimated 150 places per year, increasing to 300 in 2023  LDEUTC is also likely to increase 16-18 Technical Level 3 places from 2020 onwards

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Table 2: 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 September Planned place 90 ESS 150 BMA 150 increases: 115 LAE 100 NCS BMA Level 3, A Level 115 LAE 100 NCS Total 920 205 0 0 365 250

Planned increases in places at NCS, ESS, and LAE would be Level 3 A Level. Planned increases at BMA are not yet known, but are likely to be A Level. Increases at LAE and NCS are provisional, as they are reliant on new premises. Also institutions such as LAE have a PAN Admissions policy, where the intake is only 50% from Newham, so not all additional places would be potentially be available to Newham residents. This may also be the case at BMA and ESS, which operates an admissions policy where 2/3 of students are admitted from within a 3 mile radius.

Conclusions

The Newham 16-19 (Year 12 & 13 equivalent) cohort is projected to increase by 2,459 students in the seven year period from 2018/19-2024/25.

Newham has had a very high birth rate for many years, and in 2017, Newham had the highest number of births in London. The neighbouring boroughs of Barking & Dagenham, Redbridge and Waltham Forest also have high numbers of births, so demand for pupil places is likely to increase for the foreseeable future, both in Newham and in neighbouring boroughs.10

This means that as secondary school populations increase, young people from Newham secondary schools will find it increasingly harder to access 16-18 places at popular institutions in neighbouring boroughs, as their places will be filled with their borough residents. This will result in increased demand from Newham residents for 16-19 places in Newham institutions.

Demand for A Level, Level 3, and Level 2 places is not expected to change significantly over the next few years in percentage terms, however the demand for the number places is projected to increase significantly in line with the increases in the size of the Newham cohort.

Projection suggest that demand for additional A Level places should be met through planned increases and through incremental increases of places at existing A Level institutions (sixth forms and LDEUTC). Projections suggest that there will be a need for an additional 791 A Level places between2021/2 and 2024/5. Timescales for the opening of new places at LAE and NCS are not yet confirmed, but the planned increases of 230 at LAE, 200 at NCS, and

10 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/birth summarytables

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300 at BMA should provide the additional A Level places required, provided they are delivered.

Demand for Level 3 Applied and Technical places is also projected to increase, and the introduction of T Level qualifications in 2021 is predicted to increase demand, although this might not be significant until the first cohort completes their qualifications in 2023. Projections based on the current take-up of places on Level 3 non-A Level programmes suggest that there will be a need for an additional 400 places from 2021/2-2024/5. There is capacity within institutions in the borough to create the additional places, although the new Technical qualifications will require some specialist technical and occupational knowledge that institutions will need to develop. The Newham institutions delivering technical education have formed a T Level Working Group together with Council Officers that is developing the borough T Level offer and will ensure that sufficient places in all the T Levels are available to meet demand.

Demand for places at Level 2 is projected to increase due to the increases in the cohort size, and again it is anticipated that the 380 additional places needed between 2020/21 – 2024/25 can be supplied through the existing provider base in Newham, and that a significant proportion will be provided through the Tech Level Transition Year programme which is being developed by the T Level Working Group.

Demand for 16-19 places at Entry Level and Level 1 is also projected to increase due to increases in the cohort size by 360 places from 20/21-2024/25. These places are currently provided primarily by Newham College, with some Foundation provision at NewVIc, and specialist SEND provision at Newham College, JFK Special School, and a small number of places at other providers in Newham. Provision for SEND learners is up to the age of 25.

The Council is in discussion with existing providers in Newham regarding the expansion of provision for SEND, and the additional numbers of places for learners at Entry Level and Level 1 are expected to be provided through the expansion of existing provision.

Newham Council will lead on process for the provision of additional 16-18 places with Newham providers during 2018/19, and will notify the ESFA of any projected gaps in provision or places that cannot be met through expansion of existing provision.

Methodology and Data

In order to provide a projection for the number of 16-19 places that will be required up to and including 2024/25, we consider a number of factors alongside the Year 11 pupil projections.

 Newham secondary school cohort and pupil projections for neighbouring boroughs  Current size of Year 12 & 13 resident cohorts in Newham  Current Key Stage 4 attainment in Newham schools  Current Year 11 destinations following Key Stage 4  Current 16-18 take up of places in Newham institutions by detailed age, Level, course/qualification type offered  Any additional planned increases in 16-19 places by Newham providers

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The number of Year 11 pupils is projected to progress in to Year 12 and Year 13 at 100%. Current progression rates are 97%.Substantial growth in neighbouring boroughs is also taken into account, as this will have an effect.

Cohort Size

Numbers below 5 are suppressed for data protection reasons.

It is not possible to project demand for Apprenticeships, as the demand and supply is highly volatile. Demand will increase as more Apprenticeships for 16 & 17 year olds become available.

Demand for Year 14 places is not included within 16-19 projections, as they are generally small numbers of students who started long courses prior to the 31st August in the year of their 18th birthday, and are completing courses after their 18th birthday or 19th birthday.

Pupil projections

Table 1: Pupil projections - Newham schools (SCAP projections 2018)

Actual Projections Table 1: Year 11 September 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pupil projections 3799 4068 4173 4448 4608 5008 5351 5356

Table 1 shows that the Year 11 pupil numbers from Newham schools who will progress into post-16 education (Year 12 equivalent) is due to increase significantly over the 8 year period to 2024/25.

Year 12 & 13 resident cohorts

The 16 & 17 year old resident cohort will be larger than the pupil cohort, but less predictable in terms of mobility at age 16. Increasing school populations in Redbridge, Barking & Dagenham and Waltham Forest suggest that there will be fewer places available for Newham residents in schools at age 11 and in sixth forms and colleges in those boroughs at age 16 in the future. This is likely to result in increased demand for 16-19 places in Newham institutions. The projections above assume 100% progression in both Year 11 to year 12 and Year 12 to Year 13. Current participation rates for Newham residents are 97%+ Year 12

Table 2 Year 11 resident cohort who progressed to Year 12 (data source 15Billion) Year 2016 2017 Numbers 3718 3754

Table 2 shows the size of the Year 11 cohorts in Newham schools that progressed into education and training destinations in Sept 16 and Sept 17, which are slightly lower than the cohort number in Newham Year 11. This is likely to be due to some young people moving out of London or the UK, so their Year 12 destinations were not captured.

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Take up of places at institutions located in Newham in 2016/17 (data source ESFA)

Table 3: Age and Level 16 17 18 18+ Total E & L1 474 270 250 46 1040 L2 552 392 215 <5 1163 L3 School VI Forms 762 532 30 <5 1327 L3 FE 880 1341 614 34 2869

Total 2668 2535 1109 87 6399 *not including Skills for Growth data as their HQ is in Bexley and their data is not disaggregated by borough.

Table 3 shows the take up of places by all 16-19 year old students in institutions located in Newham in 2016/17 by detailed age and notional level of qualifications studied. Small numbers of 5 or less have been suppressed. In 16/17, 42% of provision delivered in Newham was taken up 16 year olds (year 12 equiv). 39% by 17 year olds (year 13 equivalent) and 19% by 18 year olds and 18+ (Year 14).

17% of places taken up in 2016/17 are below Level 2 or have no designated level

18% are at Level 2

65% are at Level 3

The take up of places at Level 3 in 2016/17 is broadly in line with Newham GCSE achievement in 2015/16 of 63% achieving A*-C grades in English and Maths

Level 3 Academic & Vocational Level 3 enrolments at Newham institutions (qualification enrolments – not learner numbers) source: ESFA

Table 4: Level 3 enrolments 14/15 15/16 16/17 Academic 7221 8673 7677 Vocational 2947 2456 2914 Total 10,168 11,129 10,591

Table 4 shows that there was a decrease in the number of qualification enrolments on Academic L3 qualifications between 15/16 and 16/17. This is mainly due to institutions ceasing to offer AS Levels when they were de-coupled from A Levels in 16/17.

There was an increase in the number of enrolments on Vocational Level 3 qualifications in 2016/17 back to 14/15 Levels, which is again attributable to qualification changes in 15/16.

The table also shows that 73% of enrolments on Level 3 qualifications in Newham were Academic, and 27% were Vocational Level 3 vocational (applied and occupational).

Full time destinations of Newham residents Year 11 into Year 12 (source 15Billion)

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Tables 8 & 9 Local Authority Destinations with the highest number of full-time participating Year 11s from Newham schools in 2016 & 2017 (source 15 Billion)

Table 8 Table 9

The tables above show that the percentage of Newham pupils remaining in Newham has increased to over 59%, an increase of just under 10% over the last five years.

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