Russia Mining 2019-2020 KY GG AJP
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RUSSIA MINING SECTOR 2019/2020 An EMIS Insights Industry Report Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2019 EMIS, all rights reserved. CONTACT US www.emis.com FOLLOW US ABBREVIATIONS CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CDDFEC Central Dispatching Department of Fuel and Energy Complex CIS Commonwealth of Independent States ECM Equity Capital Market FASU Federal Agency for Subsoil Use FCS Federal Customs Service FMST Federal Ministry of Sustainability and Tourism FSSNR Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resource GVA Gross Value Added HBI Hot Briquetted Iron LME London Metal Exchange MNR Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment M&Q Mining and Quarrying oz Ounce koz Thousand ounces moz Million ounces RGMU Russian Gold Miners Union RUB Russia Rouble Federal Service for Ecological, Technological and Nuclear Rostekhnadzor Supervision USGS United States Geological Survey Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2019 EMIS, all rights reserved. 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY p.5 Sector in Numbers Sector Overview Sector Snapshot Outlook Driving Forces Restraining Forces 02 SECTOR IN FOCUS p.13 Main Economic Indicators Main Sector Indicators Production Global Positioning Foreign Trade Foreign Investments Employment and Wages 03 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE p.24 Timeline Russia Mining Highlights Coal Market Iron Ore Market Nickel Market Diamond Market Gold Market M&A Deals M&A Activity 04 COMPANIES IN FOCUS p.34 Norilsk Nickel Metalloinvest EVRAZ ALROSA Polyus Gold CONTENTS 05 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT p.51 Main Regulatory Bodies Government Regulations Licences 06 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE p.56 Highlights Main Events Focus Point – Coal Production by Area Coal Production Coal Exports Focus Point – Metal Ore Production by Federal District Iron Ore Production Iron Ore Foreign Trade Iron Ore Prices Nickel Production Nickel Foreign Trade Nickel Prices Copper Production Copper Foreign Trade Copper Price 07 PRECIOUS METALS & p.73 MINERALS Highlights Main Events Gold Mining Focus Point – Gold Mining Resources Gold Prices Diamonds Mining Focus Point – Alrosa Largest Diamond Production Regions CONTENTS RUSSIA MINING SECTOR 2019/2020 An EMIS Insights Industry Report CONTENTS 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2019 EMIS, all rights reserved. 5 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector in Numbers 12.9% RUB 10.8% of GDP 18.2tn CAGR M&Q Sector Production Production Growth GVA Value 2012–2018 No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 Diamond Producer Coal Reserves Gold Producer Globally Holder Globally Globally USD USD 1.1mn 290.7bn 5.0bn Mineral Product Sector Exports Net FDI Employment Source: Statistics Office, FCS, CEIC, USGS, BP Statistical Review of World Energy RUSSIA MINING SECTOR 2019/2020 6 An EMIS Insights Industry Report 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector Overview The mining industry is of strategic importance to the Russian economy, contributing about 12% to the GDP, providing jobs to 1.1mn people and contributing a third to government revenues. Since Russia hosts one of the world’s largest mineral resources, its mining sector is an important supplier for the global economy. In 2018, Russia ranked as the largest miner of rough diamonds, the third largest gold producer and the third largest coal exporter. The mining industry is a significant contributor to overall exports and an important source of hard currency for Russia. In 2018, exports of minerals accounted for close to 65% of the country’s total exports. Entry Modes The government has imposed high entry barriers, restricting foreign ownership and investment in the sector. Foreign investors are allowed to own a stake of up to 25% in any Russian mine and they have to be granted a special permit by the regulator. Local companies are privileged in terms of possession of mines and it is be difficult for a foreign company to get a mining licence. The best way to enter the sector is through joint ventures with local players and minority stake acquisitions. In search of extra cash, the government is offering for sale stakes in mineral raw commodity producers, creating opportunities for new players to enter the market. Foreign investors can participate in this privatisation provided they register a subsidiary in Russia. However, they will only be allowed to buy minority stakes, as control over strategic enterprises must remain within the Russian state. Segment Opportunities The best opportunities for growth exist in the segment of iron ore mining as the global market is currently experiencing an undersupply due to the collapse of a dam in Brazil in January 2019, which derailed the world's biggest iron ore producer Vale. Strong demand from Asia will support an increase in Russia’s coal exports, which hit record levels in 2017 and look set to continue rising over the next few years as China banned imports from North Korea and continues to eliminate outdated coal capacity. The segment of nickel mining, which is presented largely by Norilsk Nickel, is positioned to gain from the rapidly growing use of electric vehicles (EV). The company is getting involved in battery manufacturing through a partnership with BASF in Finland and plans to expand its nickel production by 15% over 2019–2026. Government Policy All mineral resources located underground in Russia are the property of the state regardless of land ownership. In order to conduct exploration and mining activities, an entity must obtain one of the three types of subsoil licences: exploration, production or a combined licence. The mining and quarrying sector is highly regulated and foreign players are restricted form entering it. Source: EMIS Insights, MNR, Company Data, USGS, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, FCS, CEIC RUSSIA MINING SECTOR 2019/2020 7 An EMIS Insights Industry Report 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector Snapshot Russia Mining Sector PRODUCTION RUB 18.2tn USD 291.8bn Value Value Mining of Energy Producing Materials: RUB 14.7tn Mining of Non-Energy Materials: RUB 3.6tn EXPORTS USD 290.7bn TURNOVER RUB 17.7tn Mining and Quarrying Industry Sales Energy Segment: Non-Energy IMPORTS RUB 14.1tn Segment: RUB 3.7tn USD 5.0bn Sales of Energy-Related Sales of Energy -Related Materials Materials KEY PLAYERS’ REVENUES 1. Evraz – USD 12.8bn 2. Norilsk Nickel – USD 11.7bn 3. Metalloinvest – USD 7.2bn 4. Alrosa – RUB 299.6bn 5. Polyus Gold – USD 2.9bn Note: Data for 2018. Source: Statistics Office, FCS, CEIC, Company Data RUSSIA MINING SECTOR 2019/2020 8 An EMIS Insights Industry Report 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector Snapshot Russia Mining Sector The Russian mining and quarrying (M&Q) sector generated a gross value added (GVA) of RUB 12tn in 2018, equal to nearly 13% of the country’s GDP. The M&Q production value increased by 34% y/y to RUB 18.2tn in 2018, driven by the segment of energy commodities, which experienced an expansion of 40% y/y to RUB 14.7tn (80% of the total), while the non-energy commodities added 15% y/y to RUB 3.6tn (20% of the total). Due to the depreciation of the rouble, the production value of M&Q grew at the slower rate in US dollar terms of 25% y/y to USD 291.8bn. M&Q trade turnover increased by 31% y/y to RUB 17.7tn, mainly as a result of commodity price rises on the global markets. Coal trade turnover added 29% y/y to RUB 1.7tn, the oil and gas trade turnover rallied by 39% y/y to RUB 12.4tn, while the trade turnover with metal ores experienced a rise of 18% y/y to RUB 1.2tn. Russia is a major supplier for the global economy both of energy and non-energy minerals. In 2018, the country’s mineral trade surplus widened by 37% y/y to USD 285.7bn, reflecting stronger export demand and rising commodity prices. The overall minerals exports jumped by 36.1% y/y to USD 290.7bn, while imports went up by 11.8% y/y to USD 5bn. In 2018, Russian coal production hit a 5-year high reaching 440.2mn tonnes, up 6.9% y/y, driven mainly by rising shipments abroad, underpinned by higher market prices. In 2018, iron ore production advanced by 0.9% y/y on stronger global demand as well as supply rationalisation in China, which supported iron ore prices in 2018. Nickel production, on the other hand, dropped by an estimated 1.9% y/y to 210,000 tonnes in 2018, according to data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Higher global demand from cable and wire manufacturers lifted the Russian copper production volumes by 6% y/y to 747,700 tonnes. The production of gold went up by 4% y/y to 264,400 tonnes, while that of diamonds shrank by 2.8% y/y to 24.4mn carats. One of the largest players in the mining sector is Norilsk Nickel, which is also the world’s largest producer of nickel and palladium and one of its leading producers of platinum and copper. The company generated revenues of USD 11.7bn in 2018, up 228% y/y. Another major player in the sector is EVRAZ – a vertically integrated steel, mining and vanadium business company. It is among the top steel producers in the world, with revenues of USD 12.8bn in 2018, up 19% y/y. PJSC Alrosa is a government-controlled diamond-mining company that holds 28% of the world’s total diamond production, making it the largest global diamond player. In 2018, Alrosa earned RUB 300bn in revenues, or 9% more than in 2017. Metalloinvest is a vertically integrated iron ore and steel company and the largest iron ore producer in Russia. Metalloinvest had revenues of USD 7.2bn in 2018, an increase of 15% y/y.