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Country Report Iran May 2016

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Country Report Iran May 2016 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on May 23rd 2016 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Economist Intelligence Unit Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (44.20) 7576 8500 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva Economist Intelligence Unit Economist Intelligence Unit 60/F, Central Plaza Rue de l’Athénée 32 18 Harbour Road 1206 Geneva Wanchai Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Tel: (41) 22 566 2470 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 Fax: (41) 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. The whole report may be viewed in PDF format, or can be navigated section-by-section by using the HTML links. In addition, the full archive of previous reports can be accessed in HTML or PDF format, and our search engine can be used to find content of interest quickly. Our automatic alerting service will send a notification via e-mail when new reports become available. Copyright © 2016 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 2047-5020 Symbols for tables "0 or 0.0" means nil or negligible;"n/a" means not available; "-" means not applicable Iran 1 Iran Forecast Highlights Outlook for 2016-20 3 Political stability 4 Election watch 4 International relations 5 Policy trends 6 Fiscal policy 6 Monetary policy 7 International assumptions 7 Economic growth 8 Inflation 8 Exchange rates 8 External sector 9 Forecast summary Data and charts 10 Annual data and forecast 11 Quarterly data 11 Monthly data 12 Annual trends charts 13 Monthly trends charts 14 Comparative economic indicators Summary 14 Basic data 16 Political structure Recent analysis Politics 18 Forecast updates 24 Analysis Economy 28 Forecast updates Analysis Country Report May 2016 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Iran 2 Highlights Editor: Robert Powell Forecast Closing Date: May 13, 2016 Outlook for 2016-20 Internal politics will become increasingly polarised as the president, Hassan Rowhani, seeks to exploit the international nuclear deal and the strong showing of his supporters in the elections to eclipse the country's hardliners. We expect Mr Rowhani to win re-election in the presidential election scheduled for 2017, assisted by the economic gains engendered by the nuclear deal and divisions among his hardline conservative opponents. With the economy struggling under the burden of low oil prices, the govern ment will energetically seek to leverage the lifting of sanctions to stimulate inward investment, with a focus on the oil and gas sector and infrastructure. We forecast that Iran will record the fastest growth in the Middle East and North Africa in 2016 20, at an average of around 5%, as the lifting of sanctions boosts trade and investment. We have lowered Iran's inflation forecast, in line with a fall in price growth in the first quarter of 2016. We now expect inflation to decline to 9.2% in 2016, rising to an average of 11.5% in 2017-20 as demand-pull inflation increases. We expect the official exchange rate to continue to weaken against the US dollar. Nevertheless, the nuclear deal should boost confidence in the rial and help to narrow the gap between the official and weaker market rates. After a short-lived fillip in 2016-17, as oil exports are boosted following the lifting of sanctions, we forecast that the current account will slip into deficit in 2018-20 as imports are driven up by pent-up demand and rising investment. Review In keeping with the results of the first round of the parliamentary election, reformists and moderates had a strong showing in the run-off. Moderates now hold some 125 seats in the new 290-seat parliament, with the rest split between hardliners and independents. Differences between Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the president over economic policy have re emerged, in the wake of speeches from Ayatollah Khamenei extolling the virtues of a "resistance economy". Data from Bank Markazi (the central bank) have revealed the extent to which the economy was struggling in late 2015, with manufacturing, construction, trade and bank finance all painting a moribund picture of economic activity. Data from Bank Markazi have indicated that the fiscal deficit in the first ten months of 2015/16 (March 21st-January 20th) rose from IR126trn (US$4.4bn) in the same period of 2014/15 to over IR160trn as oil prices plummeted. According to the central bank, year­on­year inflation fell to 8.3% in March— its lowest level since June 2010—as food costs continued to decline. Country Report May 2016 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Iran 3 Outlook for 2016-20 Political stability Internal Iranian politics will become increasingly polarised. The president, Hassan Rowhani, will seek to build on the strong showing of centrists in parliamentary and Assembly of Experts (AoE) elections in February and April to build a consensus in favour of social and economic reform. In particular, with an eye on the 2017 presidential election, Mr Rowhani will seek to leverage the implementation in January of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the international agreement reached in July 2015 over Iran's nuclear programme—in order to tackle vested interests, combat corruption and draw in much-needed foreign investment. However, hardliners, fearful that Iran's reintegration into the global community might precede broader political and civil change, will respond by cracking down on moderates and attempting to neuter Mr Rowhani's government and his parliamentary allies. Amid this in-fighting, the position of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will be crucial in maintaining stability and preventing an outbreak of general disorder. In this regard, he will seek to strike a balance between the two sides: generally supporting the JCPOA and economic liberalisation, while maintaining an uncompromising approach towards social and political reform and the US. However, such an uneasy balance will prove difficult to maintain. In particular, the continued capricious interventions of the unelected Guardian Council (a vetting body dominated by hardliners) will prove a continual source of irritation for the president and his pro-business cabinet. This situation will be exacerbated by the extra-judicial interventions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the country's political and economic spheres, and the residual dominance of vested business interests. As a result, political and social reform will remain largely stifled, and economic liberalisation will proceed inconsistently. Amid these political machinations, the future of Ayatollah Khamenei could come under greater scrutiny. His position is guaranteed by the theological doctrine of velayat e faqih (the rule of the supreme Islamic jurisprudent), but his ability to maintain a degree of stability between the country's myriad political factions would weaken if speculation over his health were to revive; the 77 year old supreme leader underwent prostate cancer surgery in September 2014. As a consequence, the issue of succession will loom larger in 2016-20. However, the identity of Ayatollah Khamenei's potential successor remains unclear at this time. Hardliners on the Guardian Council managed to exclude most reformist candidates from participating in the election for the AoE, which in turn selects the supreme leader. Nonetheless, even with this interference, a number of leading conservatives (including the AoE's chairman, Mohammad Yazdi) failed to win re-election, while Mr Rowhani and his reformist ally, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, topped the poll in the election in Tehran. The upcoming internal poll to select a replacement for Ayatollah Yazdi will give an indication of the relative power of different factions
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