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The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
Country Report Iran March 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
Iran Case File (April 2021)
IRAN CASE FILE April 2021 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 Executive Summary .....................................................................................4 Internal Affairs ........................................................................................... 7 The Ideological File .............................................................................................8 1. Women and the “Political Man” ............................................................................... 8 2. Khatami and the Position of Women ......................................................................10 The Political File ............................................................................................... 12 1. The Most Notable Highlights of the Leaked Interview .............................................12 2. Consequences and Reactions .................................................................................13 3. The Position of the Iranian President and Foreign Ministry on the Interview ..........14 4. The Implications of Leaking the Interview at This Time..........................................15 The Economic File ............................................................................................. 16 1. Bitcoin’s Genesis Globally and the Start of Its Use in Iran ........................................16 2. The Importance of Bitcoin for Iran -
República Islámica De Irán
OFICINA DE INFORMACIÓN DIPLOMÁTICA FICHA PAÍS Irán República Islámica de Irán La Oficina de Información Diplomática del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores y de Cooperación pone a disposición de los profesionales de los medios de comunicación y del público en general la presente ficha país. La información contenida en esta ficha país es pública y se ha extraído de diversos medios no oficiales. La presente ficha país no defiende posición política alguna ni de este Ministerio ni del Gobierno de España respecto del país sobre el que versa. FEBRERO 2018 Constitución. Además, en torno a un 25 % de la población tiene una variedad Irán del turco como lengua materna y se hablan otros idiomas minoritarios, como el kurdo. Moneda: Rial iraní (cambio a 4 de febrero de 2018: 1€ = 46.086 riales) Religión: El Islam está consagrado en la Constitución hoy vigente como religión oficial. La mayoría musulmana iraní (un 96% de la población total) es chiíta (en Mar Caspio torno al 89% de los musulmanes). Hay una minoría musulmana que pertenece TURQUÍA Tabriz a la creencia autóctona conocida como bahaísmo. Existe una importante mino- TURKMENISTÁN ría cristiana de origen armenio, junto a asirio-caldeos; también hay un pequeño Mashhad grupo de judíos y de seguidores del Zoroastrismo. Teherán Forma de Estado: El artículo 1 de la Constitución de 1979 define a Irán como una República Islámica. El sistema se basa en la distinción entre un Ejecutivo encabezado por el Presidente de la República y compuesto por los distintos mi- Isfahán AFGANISTÁN nisterios, que gestiona la administración del país, y un Legislativo o Majlis, que de manera efectiva aprueba las leyes y vota a los candidatos a ministro propues- IRAK Ahvaz tos por el Presidente. -
Diplomatic Unease Casts Shadow on Jordan-Iran Ties
16 April 23, 2017 News & Analysis Iran Diplomatic unease casts shadow on Jordan-Iran ties The Arab Weekly staff “It is advisable that the Jordanian king take a passing look first at the statistics released about the Jorda- London nian terrorists joining [the Islamic State] and other blood-spilling and iplomatic relations be- ignorant groups and then make tween Jordan and Iran an opinion on Iran which is on the are going through a pe- frontline of the fight against terror- riod of unease following ism and extremism and striving to the trading of insults be- strengthen security in the region,” Dtween Amman and Tehran. Ghasemi said. The Jordanian Foreign Ministry Jordan’s Foreign Ministry said said it summoned Iranian Ambas- Ghasemi’s “unacceptable” com- sador to Amman Mujtaba Fardousi ments were “a failed attempt to Bour to deliver a “strongly worded misrepresent the central role the protest.” kingdom plays in supporting re- The protest was against a state- gional security and stability and ment from Iranian Foreign Minis- fighting terrorism.” try spokesman Bahram Ghasemi branding comments Jordanian King King Abdullah said Abdullah II made to the Washington Iran was involved in Post as “silly and careless.” “strategic problems” King Abdullah told the American in the region. newspaper that Iran was involved in “strategic problems” in the re- gion. “There is an attempt to forge a Former Jordanian Ambassador to geographic link between Iran, Iraq, Tehran Bassam al-Amoush told the Syria and Hezbollah/Lebanon,” he website AlkhaleejOnline.net that said. the “Iranian transgression against He added that Iran’s Islamic Revo- Jordan needed a strong response, lutionary Guards Corps troops were especially since the proximity of within 70km of Jordan’s border and the Iranians from the Jordanian- Better days. -
In Iran? How Did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ΩϭοϭϣϟϤϭϧϋ Scenario" in Iran? 21/05/2017 : ΈηϧϟΦϳέύη
How did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ωϭοϭϣϟϡγ Scenario" in Iran? How did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ωϭοϭϣϟϥϭϧϋ Scenario" in Iran? 21/05/2017 : έηϧϟΦϳέΎΗ ΔϣΩϘΗϣϟΕΎγέΩϟϭΙΎΣΑϸϟϝΑϘΗγϣϟίϛέϣ : ΏΗΎϛϟϡγ : ωϭοϭϣϟ 10/2/2021 2:24:03 AM 1 / 2 Competition between Iran¶s 12th presidential candidates that was held on May 19, 2017, heated up after their debates concluded only one week before the race began, with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a conservative politician and former military officer, and incumbent Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, dropped out of the race. In the May 12 third debate which kept its focus on the economic situation, incumbent reformist President Hassan Rouhani, appeared to have taken the lead from conservative candidate Ebrahim Raisi, the current custodian and chairman of Astan Quds Razavi in Mashhad City. Rouhani focused on potential risks that Iran would face if it adopts the economic policies pursued by the conservatives, that, in his view, would result in having what can be called a ³Venezuelan scenario´in Iran.Rouhani pointed out that the other candidates are promising higher financial subsidies for citizens and said it would be possible but might result in a scenario similar to that of Venezuela where inflation rates have soared. For Rouhani, this threatens Iran¶s economic and political stability. This concurs with warnings from some Iranian officials that Iran could be hit by a wave of violence that could be more severe than the 2009 protests staged by a group of reformists, known then as the Green Movement, against the presidential elections in which former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term.Proponents of Ahmadinejad's PoliciesRouhani reaffirmed that such policies are largely similar to economic measures taken by the government of two times President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, especially with regards to providing financial subsidies to citizens, which then caused inflation rates to jump to as high as 40% under the conservative president. -
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions From
IDENTITY AND LEGITIMACY: IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS FROM NON- TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVES Pupak Mohebali Doctor of Philosophy University of York Politics June 2017 Abstract This thesis examines the impact of Iranian elites’ conceptions of national identity on decisions affecting Iran's nuclear programme and the P5+1 nuclear negotiations. “Why has the development of an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle been portrayed as a unifying symbol of national identity in Iran, especially since 2002 following the revelation of clandestine nuclear activities”? This is the key research question that explores the Iranian political elites’ perspectives on nuclear policy actions. My main empirical data is elite interviews. Another valuable source of empirical data is a discourse analysis of Iranian leaders’ statements on various aspects of the nuclear programme. The major focus of the thesis is how the discourses of Iranian national identity have been influential in nuclear decision-making among the national elites. In this thesis, I examine Iranian national identity components, including Persian nationalism, Shia Islamic identity, Islamic Revolutionary ideology, and modernity and technological advancement. Traditional rationalist IR approaches, such as realism fail to explain how effective national identity is in the context of foreign policy decision-making. I thus discuss the connection between national identity, prestige and bargaining leverage using a social constructivist approach. According to constructivism, states’ cultures and identities are not established realities, but the outcomes of historical and social processes. The Iranian nuclear programme has a symbolic nature that mingles with socially constructed values. There is the need to look at Iran’s nuclear intentions not necessarily through the lens of a nuclear weapons programme, but rather through the regime’s overall nuclear aspirations. -
Iran Report 5 Budget Final Review
A Budget for Challenging Times To what extent will the government’s 2019-20 Budget shield Iranians from economic turmoil? ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Predicting Iran’s revenues for the financial year 2019- 20 (which ends in March 2020) is nearly impossible as the full impact of US sanctions is not yet known. What is certain, however, is that the state will be met with a sizeable budget deficit, ranging from 20% to 45% depending on scenarios. • Iran’s 2019-20 (Persian Year 1398) budget aims to protect the population from the worst effects of the economic crisis, which will involve postponing long- term structural reforms and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The state’s fear of public protest has pushed it to become the world-leading subsidiser of fossil fuels, thus wasting $45bn per year. • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and religious foundations have seen their budgets increase in the context of the “Resistance Economy”, much to the discontent of Iranians. • Recent floods will cost as much as $2.5bn, a significant burden for the government to bear. Who are we? Castlereagh Associates is a research and analysis company, providing clients with key insights to support their decision-making and enable them to build more competitive and resilient businesses on national, regional and global levels. Copyright © 2019 Castlereagh Associates- All Rights Reserved. Credits: Copyright © Shutterstock IRANIAN PARLIAMENT A BUDGET FOR CHALLENGING TIMES: A Widening Budget Deficit: $76bn $61bn $50bn Planned Revenues Planned Revenues Planned Revenues $72bn $72bn $72bn Planned Spending Planned Spending Planned Spending Source: The draft budget 2019- Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad, Our Worst-Case Scenario 20, presented by Donya-e- March 2019, Page.194 Eqtesad Masood Nili 3 3 ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 Iranian parliamentarians always aim for a zero-deficit budget. -
Zarif Extensive Dialogue”
WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y Pages Price 40,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 39th year No.13453 Sunday AUGUST 4, 2019 Mordad 13, 1398 Dhul Hijjah 2, 1440 Tehran condemns Sanctioning Zarif Fencer Mojtaba Abedini Iran opens exhibition U.S. sanctions shows U.S. frustration hungry to win gold to showcase historical against Russia 3 3 at 2020 Tokyo 15 objects of children’s life 16 Iran will take next step if obligations not met: Zarif TEHRAN — Foreign Minister Moham- ICANA in an interview published on mad Javad Zarif has said Iran will take the Saturday. Tehran-Baku trade next step in reducing commitments under He noted that Iran’s actions are within the 2015 nuclear deal if the remaining the framework of the JCPOA, the official parties to the agreement do not honor name for the nuclear agreement. their obligations. Paragraph 36 of the JCPOA has “It is the Islamic Republic of Iran provided a mechanism to resolve who should take decision in this respect. disputes and allows one side, under This step will be taken in continuation certain circumstances, to stop com- of previous actions if other sides do plying with the deal if the other side more than doubled not fulfil their obligations,” he told is out of compliance. 2 See page 4 Riyadh welcomes Iran’s condition for resuming Umrah Hajj TEHRAN — Saudi Hajj Minister Muham- He made the remarks during a meeting mad Saleh bin Taher Benten has welcomed with head of Iran’s Hajj and Pilgrimage Tehran’s condition including guaranteeing Organization Alireza Rashidian. -
Country Report Iran September 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
Menas Associates Ltd Cannot Ensure Against Orbeheld Disclaimer Publisher
Menas Iran Strategic Focus 02 /14 >>> Politically independent monthly news and analysis of strategic developments in Iran 02 Slow, slow, quick quick slow: The path to a · Volume 10 · Number· Volume 10 comprehensive deal 014 2 On 18 February the negotiating teams of Iran implementation of the interim deal began on 20 the future of the Arak heavy water reactor, the (AEOI) director Ali Akbar Salehi has already and the P5+1 (the United States, United King- January and has proceeded smoothly. Western enrichment site in Fordo, and the degree of Inter- stated that Tehran is willing to make adjust- February dom, Russia, France, and China plus Germany) governments have introduced some sanctions national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervi- ments to reduce concerns about its utilisation. started a new round of talks in Vienna to final- relief, and Iran is reconfiguring some of the com- sion over the programme. Evidently, compromises ise the agenda for negotiations towards a com- ponents of its nuclear programme, in particular are possible in all these areas. As Foreign Minister The Fordo site was originally designed to enrich prehensive nuclear deal. reducing the level of uranium enrichment to Mohammad Javad Zarif remarked, making sure uranium to 20 per cent and has been reconfig- below 5 per cent. that the nuclear programme remains peaceful is ured to reduce that to below 5 per cent. West- This round of negotiations is expected to take also an Iranian objective. ern governments insist that the site should be 6 to 12 months. Its objective is clear: based on Although the Iranian delegation believes that a shut down, however, and that scenario is unac- the interim deal signed on 24 November 2013, comprehensive agreement is achievable within Iran currently has 19,000 centrifuges, 9,000 of ceptable to Iran. -
General Assembly Distr.: General 14 August 2017
United Nations A/72/322 General Assembly Distr.: General 14 August 2017 Original: English Seventy-second session Item 73 (c) of the provisional agenda* Promotion and protection of human rights: human rights situations and reports of special rapporteurs and representatives Situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran Note by the Secretary-General** The Secretary-General has the honour to transmit to the General Assembly the report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, submitted in accordance with Human Rights Council resolution 34/23. * A/72/150. ** The present report was submitted after the deadline as a result of consultations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. 17-13925 (E) 230817 *1713925* A/72/322 Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran Summary During its thirty-third session, the Human Rights Council appointed Asma Jahangir as Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The present report outlines the activities carried out by the Special Rapporteur since the issuance of her first report to the Council (A/HRC/34/65), examines ongoing issues and presents some of the most recent and pressing developments in the area of human rights in the country. Contents Page I. Introduction ................................................................... 3 II. Charter on Citizens’ Rights ....................................................... 4 III. Civil and political rights ......................................................... 4 A. Right to take part in the conduct of public affairs ................................ 4 B. Rights to freedom of expression, opinion, information and the press ................. 6 C.