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Short-Fetch Proposal PROJECT SUMMARY: Collaborative Research: Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems – Surface and Atmospheric Influences on Lake-effect Convection (OWLeS – SAIL) This collaborative proposal is one of three proposing research associated with the Ontario Winter (OW) Lake-effect Systems (LeS) field project, scheduled for Dec 2013 - Jan 2014. The OWLeS project aims to document dynamical and cloud microphysical processes of planetary boundary-layer (PBL) convection over and downstream of relatively warm, mesoscale open-water surfaces at unprecedented detail, using X-band and S-band dual-polarization (dual-pol) radars, an aircraft instrumented with particle probes and profiling cloud radar and lidar, and a network of profiling systems and surface precipitation instruments. The OWLeS project focuses on the Lake Ontario and Finger Lakes regions because of the varied size and orientation of lakes, the climatological frequency of LeS events, the nearby moderate orography, the impact of Lake Ontario LeS hazards on public safety and commerce, and the proximity of several universities and colleges with atmospheric science programs. The OWLeS project is comprised of two complimentary modes, each related to the prevailing wind direction: 1) short-fetch LeS (those oriented at large angles to the long axis of the lake) are the main topic of this proposal; and, 2) long-fetch LeS (those more aligned with the lake’s long axis). The PIs of OWLeS proposals are committed to coordinated field operations, the sharing of all OWLeS data and analysis products, and collaborative research. This proposal and the OWLeS project stand out mainly for two reasons: 1) the focus on physical processes in the context of a prime example of interactions between the PBL, the surface, and cloud & precipitation, interactions that current operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models cannot resolve because the processes are separately parameterized; and 2) the unique collaboration with undergraduate programs at several institutions and the extensive opportunities for undergraduate students to participate in cutting-edge research, from data collection in the field to co- authoring peer-reviewed publications. The key objectives of this proposal are to describe and understand: 1) the upwind surface and atmospheric factors determining the three-dimensional structure of short-fetch LeS convective bands that develop over a relatively-warm, open water surface; 2) the development of, and interactions between, internal planetary boundary layers (PBL) and residual layers resulting from advection over multiple mesoscale water bodies, including smaller lakes, and intervening land surfaces; 3) how organized, initially convective LeS structures in short-fetch conditions persist far downstream over land, long after leaving the original buoyancy source (i.e., the ice-free water). Intellectual Merit: While current operational NWP models reasonably capture LeS timing, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of fine-scale thermodynamic and kinematic structure of LeS; the interaction between and evolution of multiple internal boundary layers as an air mass progresses over multiple stretches of open water and intervening land; the role that variation in multiple internal boundary layers have on the morphology of mesoscale precipitation; and how the interplay between dynamics and mixed-phase cloud processes produce long-lived snow bands persisting far downstream of open water. Building on previous LeS field campaigns, OWLeS provides a unique opportunity to not only document the fine-scale thermodynamic, kinematic, and cloud microphysical structure of LeS, but also to further our understanding of key processes in LeS by deploying a mesoscale network of new, high-resolution in situ and remote sensors. This observational network is well suited to capture the structure, evolution, and spatio-temporal variability of the PBL and will provide unprecedented evaluation of short-fetch LeS. Broader Impacts: Lake-effect snow events create major weather hazards downwind of the Great Lakes, especially considering the region includes several well-traveled interstate highway systems. An understanding of the structure and processes leading to intensified downwind LeS will better inform road management agencies of weather situations having large impacts on winter travel. This research becomes more urgent in a warming global climate, as boreal lakes and the Arctic coastal waters are expected to remain ice-free for longer periods. This may lead to substantial increases in boundary-layer heat, moisture and snow growth, and, as a result, an increase in coastal erosion, precipitation, and ecosystem impacts. Finally, the proximity to several institutions with participating PIs gives us the opportunity to inexpensively train many students (~ 35), mostly undergraduates, in authentic hands-on instrument-based end-to-end (data-to-papers) research in atmospheric science, and to reach out to numerous K-20 students across the region. TPI 7276043 RESULTS FROM PRIOR NSF SUPPORT ATM-05-12954 (Kristovich) & ATM-05-12233 (Laird) 9/2005–9/2010 Collaborative Research: Effects of Non-Uniform Surface Conditions on Lake-Effect Systems Description of Results: The current proposal builds on scientific findings and expertise developed during our previous investigations using a variety of approaches to understand fundamental planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes and lake-effect (LE) systems. Below we present results from an NSF Collaborative Research grant which focused on LE systems during the last five years. Emphasis is placed on studies which relate to the proposed research. Barthold and Kristovich (2011) provided a detailed investigation of cloud and snow growth across Lake Michigan during a LE snowstorm with southwesterly winds. As anticipated, both liquid and ice water contents increased steadily across the lake. However, snow particle concentrations decreased over the downwind half of the lake as aggregation became more prominent. Surprisingly, snow particles were observed 3-7 km upstream of the LE cloud deck. One of the potential causes of this is snow blowing from the upwind shore; a process targeted for observation during the proposed OWLeS project with planned research to examine its linkage to over-lake snow development. Our research revealed several cases of variations in LE boundary layer conditions related to processes outside of the typically-considered LE system, such as “seeding” of LE clouds by non-LE snow particles or PBL modification by upwind lakes. Perhaps the most visible manner by which an upwind lake can influence LE over a downwind lake is the development of lake-to-lake cloud bands. In a study examining such bands throughout the Great Lakes region, Rodriguez et al. (2007) found that approximately 30% of all LE cases that develop over Lake Huron produce a cloud band that extends to Lake Ontario, the study region for the proposed OWLeS project. Such lake-to-lake cloud bands result in important spatial variations in LE PBL clouds and snow and, presumably, PBL depth and other thermodynamic processes. This study also builds on a previous case study by Schroeder et al. (2006), who found that the depth of the well-mixed boundary layer and snowfall rates in LE systems can be very sensitive to variations in environmental stability and pre-existing snow. Despite modest surface heat fluxes of 100–200 W m−2 over Lake Michigan, cross-lake boundary layer growth was twice that previously reported as the LE convection merged with an overlying reduced-stability layer caused by a nearby cyclone. In addition, snowfall rates were increased by an order of magnitude where cyclone-generated snow “seeded” the shallower LE clouds and boundary layer depth increased by about 10% compared to nearby non-seeded areas. These studies demonstrate the sensitivity of convective PBLs to the environments in which they develop and the significant roles that upwind lakes and synoptic systems can have in LE development and intensification. Laird et al. (2009a, 2009b, 2010) provided climatological analyses of LE precipitation events which developed in association with lakes smaller than the Great Lakes. The frequency, characteristics, and environmental conditions favorable for LE precipitation were examined for nine winters (October-March) for Lake Champlain (Laird et al. 2009a) and eleven winters for the New York State (NYS) Finger Lakes (Laird et al. 2009b, 2010). WSR-88D radar data from Burlington, VT (for Lake Champlain) and Binghamton, NY (for the Finger Lakes) were used to identify 67 and 125 LE events, respectively. Laird et al. (2009b) showed that all of the eastern and central NYS Finger Lakes can produce LE precipitation bands. These LE events had an average duration of 9.4 hrs and exhibited an evident diurnal signal in the timing of their initiation and dissipation – a result consistent with Great Lakes LE snowfall (Kristovich and Spinar 2005). Additionally, Laird et al. (2010) showed that LE precipitation events originating from the Finger Lakes, rather than an enhancement to Lake Ontario LE or synoptic precipitation, developed with the: (a) coldest temperatures, (b) largest lake-air temperature differences, (c) weakest wind speeds, (d) highest sea-level pressure, and (e) lowest base height of the stable layer. The characteristics of and transitions between LE events in the Finger Lakes region strongly suggested links to variability of the Lake Ontario boundary layer – an interaction targeted during the
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