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Metrolinx GO Expansion Full Business Case

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GO Expansion Full Business Case Executive Summary November 2018 GO Expansion Full Business Case Executive Summary November 2018 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE Problem and Opportunity: Investing in Regional Transportation to Realize and Manage Urban Growth THE PROBLEM: THE CURRENT TRANSPORTATION NETWORK CANNOT THE SOLUTION: TRANSFORM GO RAIL INTO A RAPID RAIL SYSTEM MEET THE NEEDS OF A GROWING REGION GO Expansion is an investment program that will transform GO Rail into a By 2041, the GO Service Area, including Rapid Rail System that provides the expanded mobility the GTHA needs to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area accommodate growth and maintain a high quality of life and prosperous economy. (GTHA), Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, and GO Expansion is one of Canada’s largest infrastructure and transport Niagara is expected to grow to over 12 projects. It will cost $16.8 billion beyond the $38.9 GO Rail would need to million people. While this growth will be spend over 60 years to continue to operate and maintain the system. spread across the region, Toronto will remain the largest concentration of jobs and will continue to be the economic engine of the province Travel demand is expected to 1 FASTER AND increase by over 50% by the same year. MORE ALL-DAY SERVICE MORE EFFICIENT TRAINS Existing infrastructure will not be able to SERVICE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS Over 680 km of electrified track to provide trains that are up to 30% faster and 50% cheaper to operate per train KM accommodate this growth. Much of the network is already congested today – demand TRAINS EVERY 15 MINUTES for travel exceeds the network’s capacity. MORE ACCESSIBLE AN EXPANDED Over 205 km of new track laid to enable STATIONS UNION STATION • Today congestion can increase travel 6,000 weekly services with two-way all-day service on Lakeshore West, Kitchener, times for drivers by as much as 120%. 42 Stations are upgraded Union Station’s platforms and tracks Barrie, Stouffville, and Lakeshore East. to improve accessibility are upgraded to accommodate • Congestion could cost the region's demand beyond 2055 economy up to $15 billion annually Expanding GO is a cost-effective way to add transport capacity in the GTHA by 2 in lost productivity by 2031. leveraging existing, under-used rail corridors that span over 400 km of the region. The transportation network requires new travel choices for trips within cities, between cities, and across the region. Without investment, the region’s transportation network will become a bottleneck to further growth and will be a limiting factor for HIGHWAYS SUBWAYS AND RAPID TRANSIT quality of life and economic prosperity. The highway network provides six lanes into the core on Line 1 and Line 2 play a critical role in the GTHA’s the Don Valley Parkway and six lanes on the Gardiner transportation network. They ensure travellers can WHY NOT USE OTHER MODES TO Expressway. These highways are already congested access the core and much of the City of Toronto. and do not have capacity for further growth. SOLVE THIS PROBLEM? New rapid transit to Downtown Toronto is being Both highways cannot realistically be expanded further – explored as a means to reduce crowding and expand Other modes also play a critical role in the GTHA the Gardiner runs alongside new urban developments accessibility – however, using subways or rapid transit transportation network and are being invested in to connect the rest of the GTHA to Downtown Toronto Investment in highways upstream will not mitigate through other projects and programs – however, will be expensive, while the railway network already the Downtown Toronto bottleneck, while investment they are not optimal solutions to provide more provides 400km of coverage across the GTHA. capacity for long distance travel and travel to in rail can decongest highways reducing travel Downtown Toronto from the rest of the GTHA. times for people who continue to drive. 2 Metrolinx Cost of Congestion i 1 Population, Employment, and Demand statistics drawn (www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/costsofcongestion/ from the Greater Golden Horseshoe Model v4 ISP_08-015_Cost_of_Congestion_report_1128081.pdf) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Benefit: Unlocking Regional Growth through Transportation Investment GO Expansion was evaluated using Metrolinx’s Business Case Guidance to complete a Full Business Case – the most rigorous analysis of a potential investment.3 The case for GO Expansion is robust – • GO Rail will become one of the busiest railways in North America with over it will realize significant benefits to 200 million annual riders – allowing seamless access to the downtown core transit users, drivers, and the region • Passengers will save over 10 minutes a trip on average, as a whole. By leveraging an existing while drivers benefit from less congested roads network of over 400 km of railway, GO • Over 40% of all homes and 45% of all jobs will have direct access to a Expansion will break the development STRATEGIC CASE station with two-way all-day service with a train every 15 minutes or better bottleneck and unlock the development Realizing regional potential of the region. This means: policy • GO Rail will provide more service with up to 70% less pollution per passenger trip • More time with family, for everyone – • Investment in GO Expansion will generate 8,300 annual job travellers using GO Rail will get from where equivalents in the first twelve years of construction and delivery they are to where they want to go faster, while drivers will benefit from decongested roads. • Total benefits of $42.2 billion compared to $16.2 billion in economic costs resulting in a benefit cost ratio of 2.6 to 1 – • More money in pockets – travellers meaning every dollar invested generates $2.60 for Ontario.4 who switch to GO Rail will save money • Benefits include: by not paying for gas and parking . ECONOMIC CASE • Transit User Benefits of $35.4 billion • More jobs and increased productivity – Realizing value • Auto Traveller Benefits of $3.3 billion investing in rail will create new jobs in the for society • Auto Operating Cost savings of $1.9 billion transport sector and make the GTHA a more competitive place to invest and do business. • Health and Safety Benefits of $1.1 billion. • Emission Reduction Benefits of $330 million • Better business for Metrolinx – more efficient trains will reduce operating subsidy requirements, and improved • GO Rail’s incremental revenue is $12.3 billion, which means that most service will grow ridership and revenue. of the $16.8 billion in incremental costs can be paid for by farebox FINANCIAL CASE revenue, leading to a net incremental investment of $4.5 billion • Partnering with Private Sector – private Managing financial sector partnerships will minimize delivery resources accountably • GO Expansion recovers 110% of all operating costs over to maximize returns its lifecycle (up to 130% per year after 2055) risk and support job growth and industrial investment in the GTHA, while ensuring GO Rail service meets customer needs. • Metrolinx has already secured most necessary environmental approvals and has begun early and enabling works 3 Metrolinx Business Case Guidance DELIVERABILITY AND (http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/ OPERATIONS CASE • Metrolinx is shortlisting international consortia to deliver GO Expansion projectevaluation/benefitscases/Metrolinx%20 Ensuring benefits through a Public Private Partnership model, where a private partner Business%20Case%20Overview%20Volume%201.pdf) are realized through consortium will Design Build Operate Finance (partially) and Maintain innovative delivery the system through construction and the first 30 years of operations mechanisms 4 Benefits indicated in the table do not add to $42.2 due to rounding. Table E.4 provides a detailed summary of benefits and costs. ii GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE Preface Background This document is Metrolinx’s Full Business Case (FBC) for GO Expansion For over fifty years, GO Rail has provided While GO Rail has played a crucial role in shaping — an investment program that will high-quality, fast, and reliable commuter rail regional growth and economic development transform GO Rail into a Rapid Rail system service. GO Rail began as a one line pilot in the GTHA, it is only realizing a portion of its that will provide faster and more frequent in 1967 and has now grown into one of overall potential and requires new investment two-way all-day service across the GO Rail North America’s largest and most successful to meet the evolving needs of the region. network. The purpose of this document is to commuter rail systems, exemplified by: illustrate the proposed investment program, GO Rail can be transformed into a Rapid Rail its benefits and costs, and core requirements • Daily ridership of over 200,000 passengers system that provides services all day in both to successfully implement the program to and over 70 million annual passengers. directions with faster trains. This transformation will significantly expand transportation capacity decision makers, the public, and funding • Consistent ridership growth to support growing communities and changing partners. This document has been prepared for the last 20 years. in accordance with Metrolinx’s business economies across the GO Rail Service Area. • Passenger rail service on seven lines case guidance, which specifies a common The analysis in this Full Business Case covering over 400 km of railway structure for each Business Case to analyze (FBC) builds on over three years of analysis corridors and 66 stations. potential investments: and investment planning to put forward • Service is integrated with municipal bus the case for this transformation. Case for Change networks and rapid transit systems with What challenges and opportunities new connections being added alongside does the investment address? the development of new rapid transit. Today, the GO Rail Service Area covers a Investment Definition population of over 8.8 million people living What is the proposed investment? in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA), Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, and Niagara.
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