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London Mayoral Election Poll Conducted for the Labour Party

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London Mayoral Election Poll Conducted for the Labour Party Page 1 London Mayoral Election Poll conducted for The Labour Party Weighted - J32742/3604600 Table 1 QA & QB COMBINED TABLE - FIRST CHOICE - QA In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your FIRST CHOICE? QB Which candidate are you most inclined to support? (if undecided, refused or don't know) Base : All respondents Certain to Wtd. Total vote Gender Age Social Economic Group Work status Unwtd. Total Working (FT/ 10/10 certain Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE PT) Not working (x) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) Unweighted Total 808 389 391 417 273 297 234 530 266 512 197 808 Weighted Total 808 384 395 413 303 293 208 509 287 517 191 808 Effective Base 768 370 365 404 261 284 224 510 250 483 190 808 Total voting 708 360 352 356 261 260 184 456 243 459 166 710 Ken Livingstone (Labour) 312 149 162 149 132 108 70 186 122 208 65 311 44%fg 42% 46% 42% 51%xf 42% 38% 41% 50%xg 45% 39% 44% Boris Johnson 233 138 124 110 73 95 64 158 72 149 58 235 (Conservative) 33%d 38%x 35% 31% 28% 37%d 35% 35% 30% 32% 35% 33% Brian Paddick (Liberal 114 57 42 73 37 39 37 87 26 70 32 117 Democrat) 16%bh 16% 12% 20%xb 14% 15% 20% 19%xh 11% 15% 19% 16% Sian Berry (Green) 31 9 12 19 13 14 4 21 10 22 5 30 4%a 2% 3% 5% 5% 5% 2% 5% 4% 5% 3% 4% Gerard Batten (UK 5 2 5 - 3 2 - 1 4 4 - 4 Independence Party) 1%g 1% 1%c - 1% 1% - * 2%g 1% - 1% Richard Barnbrook 7 4 3 4 1 - 6 - 7 1 6 8 (British National Party) 1%gi 1% 1% 1% * - 3%xde - 3%xg * 3%xi 1% Matt O'Connor (English 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 1 1 2 - 2 Democrat) * - 1% - * - * * 1% * - * Other 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 - 3 * * 1% * * * 1% * * 1% - * Undecided 40 13 18 22 16 14 9 20 19 25 8 39 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 7% 5% 4% 5% Would not vote 41 3 20 20 18 12 11 20 21 23 9 40 5%ag 1% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 4% 7% 4% 5% 5% Don't know 13 5 2 11 6 5 2 8 5 6 6 12 2%b 1% * 3%xb 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% Refused 7 4 3 3 2 2 3 5 - 5 2 7 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% Fieldwork dates : 8th to 12th February 2008 Respondent Type : Adults aged 18+ in London Source : Ipsos MORI *=Less than 0.5 % Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a - x/b/c - x/d/e/f - x/g/h - x/i/j * small base Page 2 London Mayoral Election Poll conducted for The Labour Party Weighted - J32742/3604600 Table 2 Q.C & Q.D COMBINED TABLE - SECOND CHOICE - MAYORAL CANDIDATE QC. And who would be your SECOND CHOICE? QD. Which candidate are you most inclined to support? (if undecided, refused or don't know) Base : Total voting - All giving a first choice at QA/QB Certain to Wtd. Total vote Gender Age Social Economic Group Work status Unwtd. Total Working (FT/ 10/10 certain Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE PT) Not working (x) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) Unweighted Total 710 365 349 361 236 264 207 475 226 455 173 710 Weighted Total 708 360 352 356 261 260 184 456 243 459 166 710 Effective Base 675 347 326 350 226 252 199 457 212 430 167 710 Ken Livingstone (Labour) 102 47 39 63 37 43 22 74 27 67 20 104 14%b 13% 11% 18%xb 14% 16% 12% 16% 11% 15% 12% 15% Boris Johnson 135 62 68 68 54 42 39 79 56 88 35 134 (Conservative) 19% 17% 19% 19% 21% 16% 21% 17% 23% 19% 21% 19% Brian Paddick (Liberal 215 126 121 93 68 83 64 139 74 132 54 220 Democrat) 30%c 35%x 34%xc 26% 26% 32% 35% 30% 30% 29% 32% 31% Sian Berry (Green) 75 41 24 50 34 25 13 55 17 56 11 75 11%bh 11% 7% 14%xb 13% 10% 7% 12%h 7% 12%j 7% 11% Gerard Batten (UK 22 12 13 9 8 9 6 12 10 12 8 22 Independence Party) 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% Richard Barnbrook 11 5 7 4 6 2 2 6 5 6 3 11 (British National Party) 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% Matt O'Connor (English 18 6 10 8 9 4 5 12 6 10 5 17 Democrat) 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% Other 8 3 5 3 1 6 1 4 4 7 1 7 1% 1% 1% 1% * 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% Undecided 54 23 20 33 22 21 10 36 18 40 11 52 8% 6% 6% 9% 9% 8% 5% 8% 7% 9% 7% 7% Would not vote 53 27 36 16 16 20 16 34 18 32 14 53 7%c 7% 10%xc 5% 6% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% Don't know 16 9 9 7 4 5 6 6 8 9 4 15 2%g 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% Refused 1 - 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 * - * - * - - * - * - * Fieldwork dates : 8th to 12th February 2008 Respondent Type : Adults aged 18+ in London Source : Ipsos MORI *=Less than 0.5 % Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a - x/b/c - x/d/e/f - x/g/h - x/i/j * small base Page 3 London Mayoral Election Poll conducted for The Labour Party Weighted - J32742/3604600 Table 3 Q.A/B/C/D. COMBINED MAYORAL VOTE, LIVINGSTONE v JOHNSON Base : All giving a first choice at QA/QB Certain to Wtd. Total vote Gender Age Social Economic Group Work status Unwtd. Total Working (FT/ 10/10 certain Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE PT) Not working (x) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) Unweighted Total 710 365 349 361 236 264 207 475 226 455 173 710 Weighted Total 708 360 352 356 261 260 184 456 243 459 166 710 Effective Base 675 347 326 350 226 252 199 457 212 430 167 710 Ken 1st vote 312 149 162 149 132 108 70 186 122 208 65 311 44%fg 42% 46% 42% 51%xf 42% 38% 41% 50%xg 45% 39% 44% Paddick to Oth QA/B, AND 50 22 21 29 22 19 9 37 13 34 9 52 Ken QC/D 7% 6% 6% 8% 9% 7% 5% 8% 6% 7% 5% 7% Ken ANY vote 362 171 183 179 154 127 79 223 135 242 74 363 51%f 48% 52% 50% 59%xef 49% 43% 49% 56% 53% 45% 51% Boris 1st vote 233 138 124 110 73 95 64 158 72 149 58 235 33%d 38%x 35% 31% 28% 37%d 35% 35% 30% 32% 35% 33% Paddick to Oth QA/B, AND 54 27 23 31 15 18 21 35 19 31 18 53 Boris QC/D 8% 8% 7% 9% 6% 7% 11%xd 8% 8% 7% 11% 7% BORIS ANY vote 288 165 147 141 88 113 85 193 91 180 76 288 41%d 46%x 42% 40% 34% 44%d 46%d 42% 37% 39% 46% 41% Vote not transferred 58 24 22 36 18 20 20 40 17 37 16 59 8% 7% 6% 10% 7% 8% 11% 9% 7% 8% 9% 8% Fieldwork dates : 8th to 12th February 2008 Respondent Type : Adults aged 18+ in London Source : Ipsos MORI *=Less than 0.5 % Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a - x/b/c - x/d/e/f - x/g/h - x/i/j * small base Page 4 London Mayoral Election Poll conducted for The Labour Party Weighted - J32742/3604600 Table 4 The next elections for the Mayor of London will be held on 1st May this year. How likely are you to vote in these elections, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base : All respondents Certain to Wtd. Total vote Gender Age Social Economic Group Work status Unwtd. Total Working (FT/ 10/10 certain Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE PT) Not working (x) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) Unweighted Total 808 389 391 417 273 297 234 530 266 512 197 808 Weighted Total 808 384 395 413 303 293 208 509 287 517 191 808 Effective Base 768 370 365 404 261 284 224 510 250 483 190 808 1 Absolutely certain 62 - 31 31 33 18 11 30 31 32 11 62 NOT to vote (1) 8%agi - 8% 8% 11%xef 6% 5% 6% 11%xg 6% 6% 8% 2 (2) 12 - 4 8 7 4 1 10 2 9 3 11 2%a - 1% 2% 2% 1% * 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3 (3) 13 - 3 10 10 1 2 6 7 5 5 12 2%abei - 1% 2% 3%xe * 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4 (4) 19 - 6 13 4 10 5 9 10 13 4 19 2%a - 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% 5 (5) 84 - 34 50 40 32 12 51 30 57 18 82 10%af - 9% 12% 13%f 11%f 6% 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 6 (6) 30 - 16 14 10 15 5 19 9 21 4 30 4%a - 4% 3% 3% 5% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 4% 7 (7) 49 - 28 21 27 17 6 33 16 29 7 48 6%af - 7% 5% 9%xf 6% 3% 7% 6% 6% 4% 6% 8 (8) 90 - 46 44 45 27 18 64 26 63 18 89 11%a - 12% 11% 15%xef 9% 8% 13% 9% 12% 9% 11% 9 (9) 52 - 29 24 26 14 13 38 14 39 10 53 6%a - 7% 6% 9% 5% 6% 8% 5% 8% 5% 7% 10 Absolutely certain 384 384 192 192 97 153 131 243 134 243 104 389 to vote (10) 48%d 100%x 49% 46% 32% 52%xd 63%xde 48% 47% 47% 55%x 48% Don't know 12 - 6 6 4 2 6 6 6 4 6 12 1%ai - 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3%i 1% Refused 1 - 1 - - 1 - - 1 1 - 1 * - * - - * - - * * - * Mean 7.76d 10.00x 7.94 7.60 7.03 7.94d 8.57xde 7.92xh 7.48 7.86 8.06 7.80 Fieldwork dates : 8th to 12th February 2008 Respondent Type : Adults aged 18+ in London Source : Ipsos MORI *=Less than 0.5 % Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a - x/b/c - x/d/e/f - x/g/h - x/i/j * small base Page 5 London Mayoral Election Poll conducted for The Labour Party Weighted - J32742/3604600 Table 5 Thinking specifically about Boris Johnson, the Conservative candidate and Ken Livingstone, the Labour candidate, if you were forced to choose between them, which would you prefer to be Mayor of London? Base : All Certain to Wtd.
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