RSS 2013 International Conference 2-5 September 2013 University of Northumbria, Newcastle, UK www.rssconference.org.uk
Sponsored by Conference Directory
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Welcome Sponsors Acknowledgments
Welcome to the RSS 2013 conference in Newcastle We would like to thank the following organisations for their support of the conference: Newcastle upon Tyne is perched on the edge of England, only 8 miles from the North Sea and surfing beaches of Tynemouth and Whitley Bay. Newcastle Accenture as an overall event sponsor was named after the New Castle that was built in 1080 on the North bank of the River Tyne. There are 12 bridges connecting Newcastle and Gateshead Winton Capital for sponsoring the Conference Dinner including the parabolic shaped Millennium pedestrian and cycle Bridge linking Newcastle Quayside with the Baltic Centre for Contemporary Art and the Google for sponsoring the Welcome Reception Sage performance venue in Gateshead.
West from Newcastle the River Tyne passes through stone villages and PSI and the UK Statistics Authority for their support of the statistical market towns such as Hexham with its Abbey and 1300 year old Saxon Crypt. excellence awards Hadrian’s Wall extends from Wallsend through Newcastle 84 miles across the country to Carlisle. The Cheviot Hills and the Scottish border are only 50 ATASS for their support of the Young Statisticians Section’s activities at miles to the North mid way between Newcastle and Edinburgh. Durham with conference its University and Cathedral both dating back a thousand years are 15 miles to the South.
So this is the perfect, well connected and strategically important place to be for a conference.
I hope you have an uplifting and enjoyable time.
Shirley Coleman, ISRU, School of Maths and Stats, Newcastle University, Co-chair of RSS 2013
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Local Map and Venue Plans
Main Hall
Stairs Corry to Room ground Reception Exhibition/ floor Catering
Sports Central
Stairs to 1st floor Entrance to Student Union
Northumberland Building Plan is illustrative only and not necessarily to scale
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Outline Timetable MONDAY 2ND WEDNESDAY 4TH THURSDAY 5TH SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER
09.30am – 05.00pm - Pre-conference short courses and 09.00am – 10.20am - Invited/Contributed sessions (5) 09.20am – 10.40am - Invited/Contributed sessions (9) workshops 10.00am – 12.30pm - Visit to the Skills Academy for 10.40am – 11.10am - Refreshment break 06.30pm- Welcome Reception (BALTIC Centre) Sustainable Manufacturing and Innovation (SASMI) on the Nissan site 11.10am – 12.30pm - Invited sessions (10)
TUESDAY 3RD 10.30am – 11.20am - Plenary 2 12.30pm – 01.40pm - Lunch SEPTEMBER 11.20am – 11.50am - Refreshment break 01.40pm – 03.00pm - Invited sessions (11)
09.20am – 10.20am - Contributed sessions (1) 11.50am – 1.10pm - Invited sessions (6) 03.00pm – 3.20pm - Refreshment break
10.30am – 11.20am - Campion (President’s Invited) Lecture 01.10pm – 02.30pm - Lunch 03.20pm – 04.20pm - Plenary 4
11.20am – 11.50am - Refreshment break 01.30pm – 02.30pm - Poster Viewing (B) 04.20pm - Close of conference
11.50am – 01.10pm - Invited/Contributed sessions (2) 02.30pm – 03.50pm - Invited sessions (7)
01.10pm – 02.30pm - Lunch (including YSS Reception) 03.50pm – 04.15pm - Refreshment break YSS Tuesday night social (Tuesday from 8pm)
01.30pm – 02.30pm - Poster Viewing (A) 04.15pm – 05.15pm - Invited/Contributed sessions (8) Join the Young Statisticians Section on Tuesday evening for a social drink or three in some of 02.30pm – 03.50pm - Invited/Contributed sessions (3) 05.25pm – 06.15pm - Plenary 3 - Significance Lecture Newcastle’s finest watering holes. Meet from 8pm onwards at Pacific House, just a two minute stroll from 03.50pm – 04.20pm - Refreshment break 07.30pm - Conference Dinner (Great North Museum) the conference - we’ll be there till at least 10pm before moving on. All welcome! 04.20pm – 05.20pm - Contributed sessions (4)
05.45pm – 07.15pm - Royal Statistical Society Awards Ceremony
07.15pm – 08.30pm - Awards Ceremony Reception 3
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Exhibiton Plan and Information
Exhibition Plan Key 6 5 4 3 7 1 - Accenture 2 2 - CRC Press
1 3 - Royal Statistical Society
4 - Significance 8 5 - Wiley Blackwell
6 - Winton Capital
9 7 - PSI
8 - Oxford University Press
9 - Springer
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General Information
Badges Photography
Conference attendees are asked to wear their badges and lanyards The Society will have a photographer taking photographs in many at all times while in the Conference. Catering staff may not be able to sessions and at social events. The Society may use photographs serve individuals who cannot be identified as conference attendees. taken in publications and in future publicity. If you would prefer your photograph not to be used in this way please contact the conference Lost badges will be replaced at the discretion of the conference office. organisers. A replacement fee may be charged. Recording sessions Internet Access Please note that the Society will also be recording a number of key The University provides wi-fi access – attendees will find a code in their sessions during the conference which will be made available from the conference packs. Society’s website in due course.
Mobile Phones Refreshments
We ask that you switch your mobile phones and other hand held Lunch as well as tea/coffee at the mid-morning break and the devices to silent when you are in sessions. mid-afternoon break is provided as part of your conference fee. All refreshments will be served in the exhibition hall on the first floor of Online Tools the Students’ Union.
The conference blog can be found at www.rssconference.org.uk and Registration and information desk you can also follow proceedings on Twitter: RSSAnnualConf – please use the hashtag #RSS2013 The registration and information desk can be found on the first floor landing outside the exhibition area in the Students’ Union.
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The Registration desk will open at the following times: Social events
If you have booked to attend one of the social events during the Date Opening Times conference when you collect your badge from registration you will be Monday 2 September 3pm – 5.30pm provided with tickets for the relevant events (welcome reception and conference dinner) Tuesday 3 September 8.30am – 6pm Wednesday 4 September 8.30am – 5.30pm Please note that at the reception on Monday evening a BBQ will be served but at the Tuesday evening reception only light canapés are Thursday 5 September 8.45am – 3pm being served.
Session locations Speakers table
Plenary sessions will be held in the main hall in the Sports central For speakers wishing to submit their presentations during the building. All other sessions will be held in one of 7 rooms on the first, conference the speakers table will be located on the first floor of the third and fourth floors of the Northumberland Building. You should Students’ Union in the Escape area. allow at least 5 minutes to walk from the exhibition hall to the rooms on the third and fourth floors.
Session timings
The following timings for presentations will normally apply: Plenary talks: 30-45 minutes plus time for questions and discussion Invited talks: 20-30 minutes plus time for questions and discussions Contributed talks: 20 minutes including time for questions and discussion
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Full Programme
1.1 Contributed 1.2 Contributed 1.3 Contributed 1.4 Contributed (Communicating Statistics) (Methods & Theory) (Time Series) (Healthcare) 9.20am - 10.20am 9.20am - 10.20am 9.20am - 10.20am 9.20am - 10.20am Room 442, Room 314, Room 306, Room 449, Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Northumberland Building
EMOS- The European Master in Simultaneous Confidence Bands for a Quasi-maximum likelihood Applications of Mixed Models to Official Statistics Percentile Line in Linear Regression estimation of periodic investigate progression of Chronic Markus Zwick with Application to Drug Stability autoregressive, conditionally Diseases using Routinely Collected Eurostat, Luxembourg Studies heteroscedastic time series General Practice Data: a case study Yang Han Florian Ziel in chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Making Data Accessible - JRF DATA. S3RI and School of Mathematics, European University Viadrina, UK The new data initiative of the Joseph University of Southampton, UK Frankfurt, Germany Zalihe Yarkiner Rowntree Foundation Kingston University, London, UK Aleks Collingwood On the effects of the Diebold-Mariano Big Data impacts on stochastic Joseph Rowntree Foundation, UK test on the selection of prediction forecast models: Evidence from FX Dealing with non-response in models time series longitudinal analysis of trajectories of Census for all: Dissemination of the Robert Kunst Sebastian Dietz frailty and wellbeing in older people 2011 Census Microdata Products Institute for Advanced Studies, and University of Passau, Germany Gindo Tampubolon Paul Waruszynski University of Vienna, Vienna (Wien), University of Manchester, UK Office of National Statistics, UK Austria
S e p te mb er Joint spatio-temporal modeling of
TUESDAY 3RD TUESDAY bovine TB in badgers and cattle Gabrielle Kelly University College Dublin, Ireland
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1.5 Contributed 1.6 Professional Development 2.1 Invited 2.2 Invited (Heterogeniety) The Young Statistician’s Guide to the Communicating and interpreting Retrospective Read Paper: 9.20am - 10.20am Conference statistical evidence in the Bayesian Measure of Model Room 308, 9.20am - 10.20am administration of criminal justice Complexity and Fit Northumberland Building Room 149, 11.50am - 1.10pm 11.50am - 1.10pm Northumberland Building Room 149, Main Hall, Sports Central Modelling Heterogeneous Variance- Northumberland Building Chair: Alastair Young Covariance Components in Two-Level Organised by the RSS Young Statisticians’ Section. Chair: Colin Aitken Multilevel Models with Application to This session is designed to help attendees both Organised by the RSS Research School Effects Educational Research new and old get to grips with the conference Organised by the RSS Statistics & the Section George Leckie programme, and get a sneak preview of some of Law working group University of Bristol, UK the key talks. Speaker: Colin Aitken David Spiegelhalter Statistical Inference on Networks With (University of Edinburgh) Heterogeneous Degrees Plenary 1: Campion Statistics and the evaluation of Discussants: Pierre-André Maugis (President’s Invited) Lecture evidence Christian Robert University College London, UK 10.30am - 11.20am Elias Moreno Bas Main Hall, Sports Central Paul Roberts A re-analysis of the Cochrane Library Chair: John Pullinger (University of Nottingham) data: the dangers of unobserved Statistics, probability and the logic of heterogeneity in meta-analyses Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci forensic proof Evan Kontopantelis University of Manchester, UK Sir Mark is the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Graham Jackson Government and Head of the Government Office (University of Abertay) for Science. The basis of opinions in forensic science
Tea/Coffee 11.20am - 11.50am Exhibition Area
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Full Programme
2.3 Invited 2.4 Professional Development - Young Statisticians’ Section Reception 3.2 Invited Data sharing and linking - the Presenting Skills 1.15pm - 2.30pm George Casella, his life methodological, legal and 11.50am - 1.10pm Corry Room, Sports Central and work practical issues Room 306, 2.30pm - 3.50pm 11.50am - 1.10pm Northumberland Building Lunch and wine provided! Room 149, Room 442, Come and meet fellow career-young Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Presenter: statisticians (first 10 years in the profession) Chair: Christian Robert Chair: Alison Walker Jenny Freeman over lunch - and enjoy some free wine! All (University of Sheffield) welcome, no need to reserve a place. Event Organised by the RSS Organised by the RSS Social kindly sponsored by Atass Sports. Research Section Statistics Section Improving your presentations: all you Sponsored by the Open Data need to know in 80 minutes! Convergence analysis Institute Poster viewing of the Gibbs sampler for Have you ever felt nervous before a 1.30pm - 2.30pm Bayesian general linear Multiple imputation for linking data presentation; lost concentration during Exhibition Area, Students’ Union mixed models with improper Katie Harron a presentation; wondered afterwards See listing on page 27 priors UCL Institute of Child Health, if you could have done better? If the Jim Hobert London, UK answer to any or all of these then this University of Florida, workshop is for you. In less than an 3.1 Invited - Big Data Revolution Gainesville, FL, USA Improving our evidence base hour and a half we will look at what 2.30pm - 3.50pm through making better use of existing makes for an effective, memorable Main Hall, Sports Central Consistency issues in administrative data: the DWP/ presentation and help you develop variable selection
S e p te mb er HMRC/MoJ data sharing experience. some strategies for improving what Speakers: Elias Moreno
TUESDAY 3RD TUESDAY Josephine Daniels², Samaira you do. Giovanni Montana (Imperial College) University of Granada, Iniesta-Martinez¹, Melissa Cox¹ Big Data in science and medicine Granada, Spain, ¹Ministry of Justice, UK, ²Department for Work and Pensions, UK Lunch Giles Pavey (Dunnhumby) 1.10pm - 2.30pm Big Data in retail and commerce Exhibition Area, Students’ Union Rajen Shah (University of Cambridge) Big Data & high dimensional statistical methods 9
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3.3. Invited 3.4 Contributed 3.5 Invited 3.6/4.6 Professional Development Statistical challenges in Meta analysis Britain: what are we thinking and Improving graphs & tables quantitative finance 2.30pm - 3.50pm feeling? 2.30pm - 5.20pm 2.30pm - 3.50pm Room 314, 2.30pm - 3.50pm Room 306, Room 449, Northumberland Building Room 442, Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Chair: Kostas Triantafyllopoulos Meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes from Chair: Hetan Shah includes break at 3.50pm randomized trials using restricted mean survival Organised by the RSS Business & time: application to individual participant data Bobby Duffy (Managing Director, Presenter: Industrial Section Yinghui Wei Social Research Institute, Ipsos Jenny Freeman (University of MRC Clinical Trials Unit Hub for Trials MORI) Sheffield) Modelling bubbles and crashes in Methodology, London, UK housing and stock markets Alison Park (Head of Society and Well designed tables and graphs are John Fry Using meta-analysis of phase II trials to inform Social Change, NatCen) essential for communicating with an University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK potential phase III trial results audience, either in a presentation, Danielle Burke report or scientific paper. However, Conditional Alphas and Realized MRC Midland Hub for Trials Methodology good display does not always Betas Research, and University of Birmingham, both happen in practice and when done Valentina Corradi Birmingham, UK poorly, it can convey a misleading or University of Warwick confusing message. The purpose of Multivariate meta-analysis using individual this workshop is to give participants participant data, with application to continuous, hands-on experience of designing survival and surrogate outcomes tables and graphs that are easy Richard Riley to read, contain all the essential University of Birmingham, UK, information necessary and are thus effective tools for communication. Estimating the power of a meta-analysis using individual participant data Joie Ensor Tea/Coffee University of Birmingham, UK Tuesday 3 September 3.50pm - 4.20pm Exhibition Area
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Full Programme
4.1 Technology Forum 4.3 Contributed 4.4 Contributed 4.5 Contributed Open Data Institute/UK Data Service Business & Finance Medical: scanning & surveillance Communicating Statistics 4.20pm - 5.20pm 4.20pm - 5.20pm 4.20pm - 5.20pm 4.20pm - 5.20pm Main Hall, Sports Central Room 449, Room 149, Room 442, Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Ulrich Atz, Open Data Institute Jo Wathan, UK Data Service Small and Medium Sized Estimation of Seasonal Influenza Back to Basics. Helpful concepts for Enterprises and the Financial Vaccine Effectiveness (SIVE) in Reasoning and Arguing that you might Crisis Scotland not have learned in your statistics 4.2 Contributed Jake Ansell Kimberley Kavanagh course. Methods & theory University of Edinburgh, UK University of Strathclyde, Ulrike Naumann 4.20pm - 5.20pm Glasgow, UK, Institute of Cancer Research, Room 314, Ensemble models: theory and Sutton, UK Northumberland Building applications Causal effects of changes in brain Silvia Figini structure on behavioural and The Use of Interactive E-Books The evaluation of evidence for autocorrelated University of Pavia, cognitive measures accounting for for teaching Bayesian Statistical data with an example relating to traces of Pavia, Italy, age-effects Modelling and Missing Data Methods cocaine on banknotes Simon White Using the Stat-JR package Colin Aitken The Invers of Autocovariance MRC Biostatistics Unit, William Browne The University of Edinburgh,UK, Matrix method for a better Cambridge, UK University of Bristol, UK space-time modeling Direct Semiparametric Estimation of Fixed Utriweni Mukhaiyar Communicating interactions -
S e p te mb er Effects Panel Data Varying Coefficient Models Institut Teknologi Bandung, Correcting for rater bias in scores on an alternative graphical view
TUESDAY 3RD TUESDAY Alexandra Soberon Velez Bandung, Indonesia a continuous scale, with application Neil Spencer University of Cantabria, to breast density University of Hertfordshire, Santander/Cantabria, Spain Matthew Sperrin Hatfield, UK University of Manchester, UK Nonparametric predictive inference for ordered three-class ROC analysis with continuous measurements Tahani Coolen-Maturi Durham University Business School, Durham, UK 11
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4.6 Contributed 5.1 Contributed 5.2 Invited Sports & Gaming Medical/Clinical Trials RSS medal/prize winners & 4.20pm - 5.20pm 9am - 10.20am contributed (methods & theory) Room 308, Room 449, 9am - 10.20am Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Main Hall, Sports Central
A comparison of sporting heroes: Bayesian A review of statistical methodology for recurrent Guy Bronze medal winner modelling of Test match cricketers events, with application to major trials in heart Piotr Fryzlewicz Pete Philipson failure Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK Jennifer Rogers RSS Research Prize winner London School of Hygiene and Tropical Haeren Cho Comparison of Machine Learning and Statistical Medicine, UK Models with Application in Rugby Fitness Tests Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Matthew Revie Flexible joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to- High-Dimensional Transposable Data University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK event data: a semiparametric regression approach Anestis Touloumis with exact likelihood. EMBL-European Bioinformatics Statistical Analysis of Player Behaviour of Online Jessica Barrett Institute, Hinxton, UK, and Cancer Freemium Games Leading to Business Models MRC Biostatistics Unit, Research UK Cambridge Institute, Anusua Singh Roy Cambridge, UK Cambridge, UK Edinburgh Napier University, and Games Analytics, both Edinburgh, Midlothian, UK Quantifying the bias in estimated treatment effects if an early stopping rule is used in clinical trials: an
Royal Statistical Society Awards Ceremony S e p te mb r analytic assessment. Tuesday 3 September Stephen Walter 5.45pm - 7pm McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada Main Hall 4TH WEDNESDAY Chair: John Pullinger, RSS President Use of historical information to supplement a future study: opportunity and difficulty See centre pages for details Nicholas Galwey GlaxoSmithKline, Stevenage, UK Awards Ceremony Reception Tuesday 3 September 7pm - 8.30pm Exhibition Area 12
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Society Honours
Guy Medal in Gold: Sir John Kingman Guy Medal in Silver: Professor Brian Ripley
Sir John Kingman FRS was the third director of the Isaac Newton Brian Ripley has been Professor of Applied Statistics at the Institute for Mathematical Sciences, serving from October 2001 to University of Oxford since 1990. He holds MA and PhD degrees September 2006. During that period he was the first N.M. Rothschild from Cambridge and previously held academic positions at Imperial & Sons Professor of Mathematical Sciences. College and the University of Strathclyde. He is the author of six books, two with Bill Venables, with ‘Modern Applied Statistics with Sir John works on the theory and applications of probability and S’ running to four editions and 90,000 sales. He is a long-standing stochastic analysis, including operational research and population member of the R Core Team. genetics. He has written five books and about a hundred papers on these and related areas of mathematics. He has been President of the Royal Statistical Society, the London Mathematical Society and the European Mathematical Society. He was elected to the Royal Society in 1971, and received its Royal Medal in 1983. He is also Foreign Associate of the US National Academy of Sciences.
He gained his degrees at Cambridge, as a scholar and later Fellow and Honorary Fellow of Pembroke College. After teaching in Cambridge he became a professor at Sussex in 1966 and then at Oxford in 1969. From 1981 he was Chairman of the Science and Engineering Research Council (SERC), before becoming Vice-Chancellor of the University of Bristol, a post he held from 1985 to 2001. In 2000 he set up the Statistics Commission, to oversee the quality of Guy Medal in Bronze: Piotr Fryzlewicz official statistics in the UK, and was its Chairman until 2003. Piotr Fryzlewicz received his MSc in Mathematics from Wroclaw Sir John is married with two children, one a senior civil servant and the other a consultant obstetrician University of Technology, Poland, in 2000, and PhD in Statistics and gynaecologist. His wife Valerie Cromwell was Director of the History of Parliament from 1991 to from the University of Bristol in 2003. Between 2003 and 2009, he 2001. He has served on a wide range of national and international bodies, including the British Council, worked as Chapman Research Fellow at Imperial College London, the British Technology Group, the Parliamentary and Scientific Committee and the boards of IBM UK and Lecturer and Senior Lecturer in Statistics at the University of Bristol, SmithKlineBeecham. In 1988 he chaired the committee which produced the government report on the and Researcher at Winton Capital Management. Since 2009, he has teaching of the English language. been Reader and then Chair in Statistics at the London School of Economics. His knighthood came in 1985 for his work with the SERC, and he holds honorary degrees from English, Russian and Canadian universities. He is Officier dans l’Ordre des PalmesAcadémiques, and an His research interests lie in multiscale modelling in statistics, Honorary Senator of the University of Hannover. time series (especially nonstationary time series), nonparametric modelling, adaptive estimation, high-dimensional statistical inference and dimension reduction, statistical learning, and applications of statistics in finance.
Piotr’s past service to the Society includes Associate Editorship of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (2006-2010) and his service as Secretary of the Research Section (2011-2012). 13
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Bradford Hill Medal: Paddy Farrington Greenfield Industrial Medal:Professor Ron Kenett
I was born in France of Irish parents. I studied pure mathematics at Professor Ron Kenett, Chairman and CEO of the KPA Group, Aberdeen, Oxford and Leeds, where I got my PhD in 1980. Then I Research Professor, University of Torino, Torino, Italy, International lived in Hanoi, Vietnam for 2 years where I worked as a translator Professor Associate, Center for Risk Engineering, NYU-Poly, NY, for the Foreign Languages Publishing House. After coming back to USA, President of the Israel Statistical Association (ISA) and Past the UK, I was for several years circulation manager of the political President of the European Network for Business and Industrial magazine Marxism Today. My first job as a statistician was at Statistics (ENBIS). Editor in chief of the Wiley Encyclopedia of the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre in London, now Statistics in Quality and Reliability, member of the advisory editorial part of Public Health England, from 1987. As I’d never studied board of Quality Technology and Quantitative Management, the statistics, I thought I’d better learn some, so I followed an evening Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, the Electronic Journal of Applied course at Birkbeck College, and got an MSc in Statistics and OR in Statistical Analysis: Decision Support Systems and Services 1988. I moved to the Open University in 1998, and was appointed Evaluation, the Journal of Methodological and Applied Statistics, professor in 2004. I served as RSS Vice President for Academic Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry and past Affairs in 2011. My research is primarily in infectious diseases and associate editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society pharmacoepidemiology. (Series A).
He has worked in a wide range of statistical applications including industrial statistics, biostatistics, design of experiments, operational risks, customer surveys, systems and software process improvement, multivariate quality control, health care, quality management and machine learning methods Haeron Cho: Research Prize such as Bayesian Networks and Association Rules.
After doing BSc in Statistics in the Department of Statistics at Seoul In the 1980s Ron held the position of Director of Statistical Methods in a large telecom corporation. He National University in South Korea, I came to UK and received PhD also held positions at the University of Wisconsin, Madison Wisconsin, Bell Laboratories, New Jersey, in Statistics at London School of Economics. I will start working as a the State University of New York in Binghamton and Tel Aviv University. Ron authored and co-authored lecturer in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Bristol over 160 papers and 9 books published by Willey, Taylor and Francis and Duxbury Press. He is now in September 2013. My research interests include nonstationary working with S. Zacks and D. Amberti on a second expanded edition of Modern Industrial Statistics, time series modelling, high-dimensional data analysis and electricity with applications using R, MINITAB and JMP to be published by Wiley. He has been a consultant for data modelling. companies in Europe, the US, the Middle East and the Far East in electronics, semiconductors, software, healthcare, banking and education systems. The company he created in 1994, is focused on creating insights through analytics with tailored projects and web based technologies on a global scale. Among the customers of KPA on finds multinational companies such as hp, 3M, SanDisk, Intel, Cisco, Amdocs, Perrigo, Teva and Roche. Ph.D. in Mathematics (1978) from the Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, B.Sc. in Mathematics (1974) from Imperial College of Science and Technology, with first class honors, London University, London, UK. Ron is a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and an Associate of the Royal College of Science.
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Awards Winners
Award for Statistical Excellence in the Pharmaceutical Industry Awards for Statistical Excellence in Official Statistics
Jointly awarded by the Society and Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (PSI). Supported by the UK Statistics Authority
The overall winner is the HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics Team
HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) Trade Statistics unit operates uktradeinfo.com alongside the main HMRC website for the purpose of publishing information about UK import and export trade statistics. These statistics record the movement of goods between the UK and both EU and non-EU countries. EU statistics are collected from the Intrastat survey and non-EU from Customs import and export entries.
The team members attending this evening all played an active role in the re- development of the site, web publishing, user engagement and customer service support. Björn Bornkamp obtained his PhD in Statistics from Dortmund University of Technology in 2009. His dissertation was on the topic of Bayesian nonparametric shape constrained inference. In 2010 he joined the Novartis Statistical Methodology group in Basel where he works as an Expert Statistical Methodologist.
He started collaborating with the Novartis Statistical Methodology group in 2005, and worked jointly with Frank Bretz and José Pinheiro (now at J&J) on the development of new methods for dose-finding and their computer implementation, resulting in several articles on this topic in peer-reviewed journals. In addition > 20 Novartis studies have by now used the developed methods.
During 2006 to 2010 Dr Bornkamp was an active contributor to the PhRMA working group on adaptive designs. Sandra Tudor (Head of HMRC Trade Statistics) Don Priest (previously Head of Compilation, currently on secondment to Eurostat) He is the main developer and maintainer of the DoseFinding R package. Richard Batterham (Head of Outputs & Delivery) Dave Belcher, Natalie Harris & Steve Wilson (Outputs & Delivery team)
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There are two joint runners-up: The Welsh Government for My Local School project and the ONS for 2011 Data Visualisation.
Welsh Government - Knowledge and Analytical Services and Department for Education.
Glyn Jones, Andy Milne, Jon Ackland, Alun Lee, Bill Oates and Tim Spiers
The team that delivered MyLocalSchool comprised experts in Statistics, Education, Technology and Project Management, from 3 different departments of Welsh Government. The technical lead was provided by the Geography & Technology team in the Welsh Government’s Knowledge and Analytical Services function. This team The graphics were designed to appeal to a very broad range of users, as a hook provide a digital delivery capability for statistics and data products, utilising open for engaging with the census, without dumbing the data down. To reach a wide- source, open standards and cloud technologies. The team relies heavily on agile ranging audience we offered these interactive visualisations direct to a huge variety approaches to delivery, and MyLocalSchool was typical of this approach, with five of mainstream media organisations (e.g. BBC, Guardian, Telegraph) who embedded phases of releases to stakeholders ahead of the full launch of the site. the ONS content directly in their own reporting of the Census data. This impact this had was enormous, opening up the visualisations to large audiences (>500,000). The visualisations generated a lot of discussion - conversations observed on social ONS media showed that the visualisations were used by a wide range of people including academics, government, politicians, journalists and the general public. Alan Smith, Robert Fry, John Nixon, Martyn Hill, Bruce Mitchell.
he interactive data visualisations were a centrepiece of the 1st and 2nd 2011 Census Awards for Statistical Excellence in Journalism releases (available online at http://bitly.com/ONSDatavis). They were designed to support a wide variety of users and uses, from interactive exploration, through to Information about the winners of these awards was not available at the time of going compelling narratives and even small area local area detail. These graphics exploited to press – an announcement will be included in the delegate packs ONS expertise and statistical insight and built on the world class reputation for interactive visualisations which ONS Data Visualisation Centre has developed in recent years.
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Full Programme
5.3 Invited 5.4 Invited 5.5 Contributed 5.6 Professional Development RSS Medal winner & Contributed - YSM 2013 Prize winners Census & Surveys RSS PDC: how we can help those Design of experiments 9am - 10.20am 9am - 10.20am providing and sourcing training 9am - 10.20am Room 149, Room 314, 9am - 10.20am Room 442, Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Room 306, Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Rolling Markov Chain Monte Carlo Quality and compromise: what is Greenfield Industrial medal winner Din-Houn Lau the use of census? Ron Kenett Imperial College London, London, UK Thomas King 5.7 Contributed Newcastle University, Newcastle Data Science On doing fine work in statistics X-11 Versus SEATS: A comparative upon Tyne, UK, 9am - 10.20am Ron S. Kenett study of revisions on short time series Room 308, (KPA Ltd., Raanana, Israel; Univ. of Folasade Ariyibi Estimating the population from Northumberland Building Torino, Torino, Italy; Center for Risk Office for National Statistics, Newport, aggregated administrative counts: Engineering, NYU Poly, New York, UK initial findings on how models Power calculations for N-of-1 studies USA) perform over time Sharon Xiaowen Lin Modelling benefits and harms of Domenica Rasulo Southampton Statistical Science Optimal Designs for Two-Parameter mammographic screening for breast Office for National Statistics, Research Institute, University of Nonlinear Models with Application to cancer using a Bayesian cohort London, UK Southampton, Southampton, UK Survival Models simulation model Alan Kimber Necdet Gunsoy Re-thinking households - Using A new class of models for rating data University of Southampton, Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton, administrative data to count and Marica Manisera
S e p te mb r Hampshire, UK Surrey, UK, classify households with some University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy geographical applications Bayes linear kinematics in the design Gill Harper A multiple imputation approach to WEDNESDAY 4TH WEDNESDAY of experiments Cass Business School, and remove residual confounding through Malcolm Farrow geocreate Ltd, both London, UK coarse data models Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Robert Grant Tyne, UK St George’s, University of London, London, UK
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Plenary 2 - Is statistics good for 6.1 Invited 6.2 Invited 6.3 Invited your health? Minding your Quantile Regression Probabilistic Analysis of MCMC Evidence-based support for ecosystem Ps and Rs 11.50am - 1.10pm 11.50am - 1.10pm management 10.30am - 11.20am Main Hall, Sports Central Room 449, 11.50am - 1.10pm Main Hall, Sports Central Chair: Angela Noufaily Northumberland Building Room 442, Northumberland Building Chair: Marian Scott Chair: Andrew Wade Organised by the RSS General Organised by RSS Panel on Statistics of Ecosystem Doug Altman Applications Section Organised by the RSS Applied Change Centre for Statistics in Medicine in Probability Section Oxford Simple thoughts on simple quantile RSS Panel on Statistics for Ecosystem Change and regression Variance bounding and geometric the INQUEST project Chris Jones ergodicity of Markov chain Monte Ron Smith Visit to the Skills Academy for The Open University, Carlo kernels for approximate Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK Sustainable Manufacturing and Milton Keynes, UK Bayesian computation Innovation (SASMI) Anthony Lee How should regional biodiversity be monitored? 10.30am - 12.30pm From LMS to GAMLSS – 25 years of University of Warwick, Coventry, UK Stephen Buckland, Sunderland semiparametric quantile regression University of St Andrews, UK, Tim Cole A General Metric for Riemannian Advanced booking is required UCL Institute of Child Health, Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Role of environmental regulation in environmental Visit host will be Josey Wardle who is London, UK Michael Betancourt management and valuation Infrastructure Manager of Zero Carbon University College London, Marian Scott Futures, a wholly owned subsidiary of Transformations in quantile regression London, UK University of Glasgow, UK Gateshead College. Marco Geraci University College London, Scale and uncertainty in the evaluation of natural London, UK capital and ecosystem services: case study within Tea/Coffee Cairngorm National Park 11.20am - 11.50am Jan Dick Exhibition Area Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK
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Full Programme
6.4 Invited 6.5 Professional Development Writing 7.1 Invited 7.2 Invited Beyond 2011 - future production of for a non-statistical audience Methods for the developing Modern Applied Bayesian Statistics population and socio-demographic 11.50am - 1.10pm use of electronic medical 2.30pm - 3.50pm statistics Room 306, record databases Main Hall, Sports Central 11.50am - 1.10pm Northumberland Building 2.30pm - 3.50pm Chair: Richard Boys Room 149, Room 449, Northumberland Building Presenter: Northumberland Building Chair: Ron Smith Julian Champkin (Editor, Significance) Chair: David Reeves Michael Goldstein (Durham University) Bayesian history matching for oil Organised by the UK Office for Organised by the RSS Primary reservoirs National Statistics Lunch Health Care Study Group 1.10pm - 2.30pm Ian Vernon (Durham University) Beyond 2011 - future production of Exhibition area Irene Petersen Galaxy Formation: Bayesian history population and socio-demographic (University College London) matching for the observable universe statistics - an overview Dealing with missing data in Jane Naylor Poster viewing electronic medical records Office for National Statistics, 1.30pm - 2.30pm Bayesian modelling of compositional Hampshire, UK Exhibition area Using electronic medical record heterogeneity in molecular databases to evaluate drug phylogenetics Population estimation from See listing on pages 27 - 28 benefits and harms: are the Sarah Heaps administrative data-based models results valid and replicable? Newcastle University, Becky Tinsley, Cal Ghee David Springate Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
S e p te mb r Office for National Statistics, Interactive session for Fellows on the University of Manchester, UK Fareham, UK RSS strategy 2014-18 1.30pm - 2.20pm Implementing cluster randomised WEDNESDAY 4TH WEDNESDAY Integrating surveys and administrative Room 306, trials using electronic health data to estimate population Northumberland Building records characteristics Alex Dregan Neha Agarwal Hetan Shah, Executive Director, Royal King’s College London, UK, Office for National Statistics, Statistical Society Newport, UK John Pullinger, President, Royal Statistical Society 19
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7.3 Invited 7.4 Invited - Probability, Uncertainty 7.5 Invited 7.6 Professional Development Anti-fragility and statistical thinking & Risk in the Environment The RPI and the CPI - where Building an R package 2.30pm - 3.50pm 2.30pm - 3.50pm statistical and political issues collide 2.30pm - 3.50pm Room 314, Room 442, 2.30pm - 3.50pm Room 306, Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Room 449, Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Chair: Tony Bendell Chair: Paul Northrop Chair: Jill Leyland Presenter: Laurent Gatto (Cambridge) Organised by the RSS Quality The Hazard Impact Model - translating Organised by the RSS National Writing good code is not a trivial matter; Improvement Section weather forecasts to societal risk Statistics Advisory Group maintaining, re-using and sharing it is certainly Ken Mylne not easier. R has a dedicated mechanism for the Tony Bendell, Services Ltd Met Office, Exeter, UK Derek Bird (Office for National Statistics) latter challenges, which we shall investigate and Nottingham & BPP Business School; apply. We will explore how to transform code Anti-Fragility & the Statistician Assessing volcanic eruption intensity Jens Mehrhoff (Deutsche Bundesbank) snippets into parametrised functions, craft a fully from near-field lithic deposits The CIA (consistency in aggregation) fledged package and see how to distribute it to Martin Sewell, Univ of Cambridge; Jonathan Rougier approach - A new economic approach to the R community. We will also briefly touch on Philosophy, Anti-Fragility & Statistics University of Bristol, Bristol, UK elementary indices best practices like unit testing, version control, Sweave vignettes and reproducible research. Alex Aisher, University of Sussex; Probability and Uncertainty in Seismic Tony Cox Anti-Fragility v spirits Hazard Analysis Chair, RPI CPI user group The course will mainly be hands-on and Ian Main delegates are invited to bring laptops with a Debate on The pros & cons of University of Edinburgh, UK working R installation (see http://is.gd/Rinstall) prediction, “Nate Silver v Nassim and some of their R code to work with. Taleb”: Michael Folkson (an Actuary on Sabbatical), Pro Taleb Tea/Coffee Nigel Marriott (Marriott Statistical 3.50pm - 4.15pm Consulting Ltd), Pro Nate Silver Exhibition area
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Full Programme
8.1 Invited 8.2 Invited 8.3 Contributed 8.4 Contributed RSS Medal winner & Contributed RSC 2012 Prize winners Copula models Industry (Medical) 4.15pm - 5.15pm 4.15pm - 5.15pm 4.15pm - 5.15pm 4.15pm - 5.15pm Room 149, Room 308, Room 314, Main Hall, Sports Central Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Northumberland Building
Bradford Hill Medal winner Objective Bayesian survival analysis Estimation of Copula Models With Predictive Modelling to Support Paddy Farrington using shape mixtures of log-normal Discrete Margins via Bayesian Quality by Design in Pharmaceuticals distributions Data Augmentation Development and Manufacturing Modelling Reporting Delays for Catalina Vallejos Michael Smith, Julian Morris Infectious Diseases Using Splines University of Warwick, Coventry, UK, and University of Melbourne, School of Chemical Engineering Angela Noufaily Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Victoria, Australia & Advanced Materials Newcastle The Open University, Santiago, Chile University, UK Milton Keynes, UK A Regression Model for the Applications of copula regression models Copula Graphic Estimator. Estimating the occurrence of debris in in paediatric research Ralf Wilke nuclear reactors: a Bayesian Monte Eirini Koutoumanou University of York, UK Carlo approach UCL Institute of Child Health, Paolo Mason London, UK Approximate Uncertainty with EDF Energy, Gloucester, UK Pair-copula Constructions for Non-Gaussian Directed Acyclic graph models using minimum
S e p te mb r information method Alireza Daneshkhah Cranfield University, UK WEDNESDAY 4TH WEDNESDAY
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8.5 Contributed 8.6 Contributed 8.7 Professional Development 8.8 Contributed - Modelling Environment Population/Migration Statistics CStat revalidation - just ‘business as 4.15pm - 5.15pm 4.15pm - 5.15pm 4.15pm - 5.15pm usual’ for professionals Room 445, Northumberland Building Room 442, Room 449, 4.15pm - 5.15pm Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Room 306, Northumberland Building Improving analysis of transplant survival data Chair: Trevor Lewis using multiple imputation Exploring sources of uncertainty in the Combining Internal Migration data Laura Pankhurst cloud model MAC3 sources in England under a Bayesian This session will outline the process for NHS Blood and Transplant, Bristol, UK Jill Johnson framework CStat revalidation by the submission of University of Leeds, UK Rebecca Newell information on continuing professional How do childhood diagnoses of type 1 diabetes Office for National Statistics, Titchfield, development and will clarify the cluster in time? Investigating species interactions by UK, and University of support that the Society gives to those Colin Muirhead modelling multivariate time series data Southampton, UK professional members undertaking Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK Hideyasu Shimadzu revalidation. The session will be University of St Andrews, UK Two Nations? Trends in UK particularly pertinent for Chartered Residential Segregation since 1991. Statisticians with a revalidation date of Plenary 3 - Significance Lecture - The Using Bayesian Methods for Benefit Paul Jones 1st January 2015, who will be going Bayesian Revolution Transfer from Choice Experiments Sheffield Hallam University, UK through the revalidation process for 5.25pm - 6.15pm Jacqueline Potts the first time in 2014; but will also be Main Hall, Sports Central Biomathematics and Statistics A functional data analytic approach relevant to all Chartered Statisticians Chair: Julian Champkin Scotland, Aberdeen, UK for forecasting population size: A case and Graduate Statisticians. The session study of United Kingdom will be adapted to suit the needs of Sharon Bertsch McGrayne Han Lin Shang those attending and will include the University of Southampton, UK opportunity to learn more about the RSS online CPD recording system. Conference Dinner 7.30pm until late Great North Museum
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Full Programme
9.1 Invited 9.2 Invited 9.3 Contributed 9.4 Contributed 9.5 Contributed RSC 2013 Prize winners Recent advances Bioinformatics Data Science Official Statistics 9.20am - 10.40am in functional data 9.20am - 10.40am 9.20am - 10.40am 9.20am - 10.40am Room 149, analysis Room 314, Room 308, Room 442, Northumberland Building 9.20am - 10.40am Northumberland Northumberland Northumberland Building Chair: Marian Scott Main Hall, Sports Building Building Central Measuring the volume of International Spatially explicit capture-recapture Evolutionary links Statistical inference: Development Assistance; lessons from with imperfect information on animal Function-valued traits between multiple always valid but often National Accounting. location in evolution species fragile Matthew Powell Ben Stevenson John Moriarty Stuart Barber Ian Hunt Oxford Policy Management, Oxford, University of St Andrews, UK University of University of Leeds, UK EDHEC Risk Institute, UK, and Office for National Statistics, Manchester, UK Nice, France Newport, UK Static-Parameter Estimation in Evaluation of Piecewise Deterministic Processes Functional Factor Trans-ethnic A Framework Measuring gender equality: an index for using Particle MCMC Methods Analysis For Periodic Meta-analysis Understating Europe Axel Finke Remote Sensing Data Approaches for Statistical Anne Laure Humbert University of Warwick, Coventry, UK Surajit Ray Fine-Mapping Performance European Institute for Gender Equality, University of Glasgow, Jennifer Asimit Paul Askew Vilnius, Lithuania Clustering High Dimensional UK, and Boston Wellcome Trust Sanger Chartered Society Data Streams by Feature Space University, USA Institute, Hinxton, of Physiotherapy, A new approach to Statistical Computing Partitioning. Cambridge, UK London, UK at the UK Office for National Statistics
Sep t embe r David Hofmeyr Regression models Gareth James Lancaster University, UK over bidimensional Bayesian Protein Office for National Statistics, Newport,
THURSDAY 5TH THURSDAY manifolds Structure Alignment UK Laura M. Sangalli Christopher Fallaize MOX - Department University of Nottingham, Improving small-area employment of Mathematics, Nottingham, UK estimates produced by ONS business Politecnico di Milano, surveys Milano, Italy Matthew Greenaway Office for National Statistics, Newport, South Wales, UK
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9.6/10.6 Professional Development 9.7 Professional Development Tea/Coffee 10.2 Invited Peer Review Workshop Statistical skills: supply, 10.40am - 11.10am Developments in 9.20am - 12.30pm demand and need Exhibition Area Density Estimation Room 306, 9.20am - 10.40am 11.10 - 12.30pm Northumberland Building Room 449, Room 314, Northumberland Building 10.1 Invited Northumberland Organised by Voice of Young Science Visualising Multivariate data Building The profession on statistician has 11.10 - 12.30pm Peer Review: The nuts and bolts - a Sense About become increasingly important in today’s Room 449, A comparative study Science workshop data-rich world. Data are ubiquitous, Northumberland Building of new cross-validated and there is an ever-growing need for Chair: Neil Spencer bandwidth selectors for This event is aimed at early career researchers statistical skills in the workplace, not kernel density estimation (PhD students, post-doctoral fellows or equivalent just at a basic level, but also in highly Organised by the RSS Statistical Computing Jens Perch Nielsen in first job) in all sciences. specialised environments. This panel Section City University London, discussion looks at the future demand UK Find out about peer review for statistical skills in higher education Bringing together geovisualisation, time Debate challenges to the system and the workplace, and asks whether the geography and computational ecology: using On log-concave Discuss the role of peer review for scientists and current supply can match what is needed. space-time density of trajectories to visualise densities and bi-log- the public. Does our current school system provide dynamics in animal space use over time concave distribution the rights kills to ensure highly qualified Urska Demsar functions Should peer review detect plagiarism, bias or professional statisticians? And if there University of St Andrews, Fife, Scotland, UK Lutz Duembgen fraud? What does peer review do for science and is a mismatch, what role should the RSS University of Bern, Bern, what does the scientific community want it to do play in the advocacy of statistical science Looking at multivariate outcomes of designed Switzerland for them? Should reviewers remain anonymous? (and creating the next generation of experiments in Canoco Does it illuminate good ideas or shut them down? statisticians) with funders/government/ Cajo ter Braak industry, using its knowledge of the Biometris, Wageningen University, Speakers include: deficiencies in supply vs. the demand of Wageningen, The Netherlands Eva Amsen (F1000Research Outreach Director) today and that projected for the future. Sheila Bird (MRC Biostatistics Unit) Harnessing the Power of Maps for Data Christopher Greenwell Visualisation (Publishing Director, Elsevier Ltd) James Cheshire Victoria Murphy (Sense About Science) UCL, London, UK
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Full Programme
10.3 Invited 10.4 Invited 10.5 Invited Research funding workshop 11.2 Invited The Cancer Research Statistics of paleoclimate Measuring Child Poverty 12.50pm - 1.40pm Papers from the journal of the UK ICGC Prostate and and paleo-environment Main Hall, Sports Central Room 308, Royal Statistical Society Oesophageal Projects 11.10 - 12.30pm Chair: Hetan Shah Northumberland Building 1.40pm - 3.00pm 11.10 - 12.30pm Room 442, Chair: Kevin McConway Room 149, Northumberland Room 149, Northumberland Building Organised by DEMOS/LSE Building Northumberland Chair: Marian Scott Panel discussion: This session will be an opportunity Chair: Adam Butler Building to share information about funding Jonty Rougier (Bristol) Peter Matejic, Child Poverty sources for statistical research Organised by the RSS Andy Lynch (Cambridge) Unit, London, UK in universities. Information about Publications Network Bayesian estimation of funding sources will be presented, Mike Smith (Cambridge) radiocarbon calibration curves Matthew Tinsley, Policy representatives from funding bodies A model based framework Re-pairing reads - for palaeoenvironmental Exchange, London, UK will be present, and there will be for air quality indices and identifying and correcting chronology construction opportunities to ask questions and population risk evaluation. With image registration issues Caitlin Buck Matt Barnes, NatCen, pass on information to colleagues. an application to the analysis of in Illumina sequencing University of Sheffield, London, UK Scottish air quality data. data Sheffield, UK Francesco Finazzi John Veit-Wilson, Newcastle 11.1 Invited University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Ludmil Alexandrov Estimating periodicities from University, Newcastle, UK Room 101: Use and abuse of Italy (Wellcome Trust Sanger time-uncertain and irregularly statistics Institute) spaced palaeoclimate data 1.40pm - 3.00pm Spatial Spline Regression Signatures of mutational Andrew Parnell 10.7 Professional Main Hall, Sports Central Models
Sep t embe r processes in prostate University College Dublin, Development Mentoring Chair: Tim Paulden Laura M. Sangalli and oesophageal Ireland 11.10 - 12.30pm MOX - Department of
THURSDAY 5TH THURSDAY cancers Room 308, Organised by the RSS Young Mathematics, Politecnico di Abrupt changes in Greenland Northumberland Building Statisticians’ Section Milano, Milano, Italy David Wedge Ice Sheet runoff and sea Chair: Mary Sweetland (Wellcome Trust Sanger water temperature since 1821 Panel of speakers including the A mixed effects model for Institute) recorded by coralline algae Society’s current President, identifying goal scoring ability of Molecular palaeontology Nicholas Kamenos Lunch John Pullinger; President Elect, footballers of multifocal and University of Glasgow, UK Peter Diggle; Sheila Bird and the Ian McHale metastatic prostate author Sharon Bertsch McGrayne The University of Salford, cancers Greater Manchester, UK 25
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11.3 Invited 11.4 Invited 11.5 Invited 11.6 Professional Development Tea/Coffee An introduction to the Energy Statistics Evidence and measures of progress Leadership in a non-statistical environment - Omics revolution 1.40pm - 3.00pm in international development why our statistical background matters 1.40pm - 3.00pm Room 442, 1.40pm - 3.00pm 1.40pm - 3.00pm Plenary 4 Room 314, Northumberland Room 449, Room 306, Changing face of Northumberland Building Northumberland Building Northumberland Building statistics Building Chair: Idris Eckley Chair: Hetan Shah 3.20pm - 4.20pm Presenters: Main Hall, Sports Organised by the RSS Modelling extreme This session will also launch Central General Applications events in power system the Society’s new International Karen Facey Chair: Shirley Coleman Section reliability analysis Development Working Group Non-Executive Director, NHS Health Scotland and Chris Dent Evidence Based Health Policy Consultant Sheila M. Bird The Omics revolution Durham University, Speakers: (MRC Biostatistics and the statistical Durham, UK Martin Gibson Unit, CAMBRIDGE) challenge it poses Neil Jackson Owner, AQUIST Consulting Sarah Lewis Forecasting Locally (Chief Statistician, Department for The University of Bristol, Stationary Series with International Development) Good leadership is a blend of many things: Close of Bristol, UK Energy Applications skills, experience, vision and a desire to drive an conference G Nason Alex Cobham organisation forward. Statisticians can certainly Thursday 5 September Data analysis issues in University of Bristol, UK (Research Fellow, Centre for Global be effective leaders, but for those contemplating 4.20pm epigenetic epidemiology Development) future leadership roles, identifying good role Caroline Relton Multidimensional models is not always easy. In this session two MRC Integrative covariate effects Suman Seth (Oxford Poverty and experienced statisticians who have experience Epidemiology Unit, in spatial and joint Human Development Initiative) of leading in very different settings share their University of Bristol, UK, extremes thoughts on leadership, and describe how and Institute of Genetic Philip Jonathan they have led successfully in non-statistical Medicine, Newcastle Shell Projects and environments. University, Newcastle Technology, Chester, UK upon Tyne, UK
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Poster Listing
Posters will be on display throughout the Bayesian Inference for Probability of A New Family of Gamma Distributions The variance: a New Equivalent Formula. conference in the exhibition and catering Chronic Non-communicable Diseases in Kishore Das The Double Variance of the Normal area with two viewings scheduled for the Nagaland: A Remote Hill State of India Gauhati University, Guwahati, Distribution Tuesday and Wednesday lunchtimes Labananda Choudhury Assam, India Muawia Abdelsalam when the poster presenters listed below Gauhati University, Guwahati, University of Gezira, Medani, Gezira have been asked to stand by their Assam, India Cohort Analysis to study wastage of State, Sudan posters to answer any questions. Manpower of the Employees in Dhubri Timothy O Olatayo District of Assam, India Wednesday 4th September: Tuesday 3rd September: Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Kishore Das Ogun State, Nigeria Gauhati University, Guwahati, Normal approximation of the Maximum UK Biobank as a resource for Assam, India Likelihood Estimator using Stein’s identification of spatial variation in Covariate shift adaptation from a method hearing impairment and its treatment viewpoint of missing data problems The UK Statistical Policy Andreas Anastasiou Mark Edmondson-Jones Masayuki Henmi Landscape Infographic University of Oxford, Oxford, UK NIHR Nottingham Hearing Biomedical The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Paul Askew Research Unit, Nottingham, UK Tokyo, Japan Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, Comparing Sources of Welsh Language London, UK Statistics Hypertension and the risk of Gaussian Tree Graphical Models for Sophie Larcombe cardiovascular disease mortality in an Discrimination A Greedy Algorithm for Representative Welsh Government, Cardiff, UK elderly male population: a competing Guillermina Eslava-Gomez Sampling: repsample in Stata risks approach National University of Mexico, Mexico, Evan Kontopantelis Generalizing smooth transition Joanna Moschandreas D.F., Mexico University of Manchester, autoregressions University of Crete, Crete, Greece Manchester, UK Emilio Zanetti Chini Comparison of Prediction Capabilities of University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Modelling population psychometric Partially Replicated Central Composite A new model for estimating district life Italy function in a speech-in-noise task: Using Designs in Cuboidal Region expectancy at birth in India with special UK Biobank to explore links between Polycarp Chigbu reference to Assam (2001, 2010) Do improvements to car safety save cognition and listening Univ. of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria Labananda Choudhury lives? Mark Edmondson-Jones Gauhati University, Guwahati, Assam, Caroline Reeves NIHR Nottingham Hearing Biomedical India TRL, Wokingham, Berkshire, UK Research Uni, Nottingham, UK
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Rank Estimation in Regression Semi-parametric predictive inference for Sub-state Life Expectancy Estimation How Robust is the Linear Logistic Yuankun Wang bivariate data using copulas Using the Methodology for Small Test Model when the Q-matrix is Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK Noryanti Muhammad Population Misspecified? University of Durham, Durham, UK Prasanta Barman George MacDonald Efficiency of Neyman Allocation Kohima Science College, Jotsoma, University of South Florida, Procedure over Equal and Proportional A penalized quality index for identifying Kohima, Nagaland, India Tampa/Fl, USA Allocation Procedures in Stratified number of clusters Random Sampling Marika Vezzoli A Model of Neonatal Mortality in Dynamic Process Monitoring Using Olaniyi Mathew Olayiwola University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy Republika Srpska Partial Least Squares and Extensions Federal University of Agriculture, Rainhard Bengez Bothinah Altaf Abeokuta, Nigeria Consequences of ignoring clustering in TU Muenchen, Muenchen, Germany, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon linear regression and National University of Taipei, Taipei, Tyne, UK Statistics in BAE Systems Munitions Georgia Ntani Taiwan Robert Langford MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology BAE Systems Munitions, Glascoed, UK Unit, University of Southampton, Evaluation of an Enhanced Model of Please note this listing is provisional – a final listing with poster board numbers allocated will be Southampton, UK Partnership Working to Support Universal available at the conference Development and validation of a model Speech and Language Provision in the for longitudinal survey optimum response Local community awareness and use Early Years O.M. OLAYIWOLA1, of wetland resources in Kyeizooba sub Thomas King Federal University of Agriculture, county Bushenyi district – Uganda Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria, Dorothy Mubuuke Tyne, UK Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a Stochastic Hybrid Modeling of the cell nonparametric functional regression Quality of Midwifery Care in Uganda. decisions leading to bone formation model with mixed types of data and Case Study Soroti District Rodrigo Assar unknown error density Resty Nansubuga Fondecyt 3130762, Centro de Han Lin Shang Makerere University, Institute of Statistics Investigaciones Biomédicas, Facultad University of Southampton, and Applied Economics, Kampala, de Ciencias Biológicas and Facultad Southampton, UK Uganda de Medicina, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago, Chile, Fundación INRIA Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Thanks and Acknowledgements
Thanks and acknowledgements to those responsible for organising the Anna Mair (exhibition manager), Sarah Simpson (awards ceremony coordinator), conference: Charlotte Stovell (registration manager), Toni Young (social events coordinator), Amelia Conolly, Cat Eaton-Lee, Tom Connelly and fellow staff at the Royal Statistical Members of the RSS Conferences & Events Programme Board Society.
Chair: Marion Scott Also to members of the RSS Young Statisticians Section Committee and (University of Glasgow/Theme Director for Meetings & Conferences) postgraduate students at Newcastle University for their assistance with stewarding.
Deputy Chair (2013 Programme Chair): Shirley Coleman (ISRU, University of Newcastle) Production
Paul Clarke (University of Bristol/General Applications Section) Nick Oatley and colleagues at Mills Media Group (www.millsmediagroup.com) for John Disney (Nottingham Trent University/Quality Improvement Section) publication design and production Sara Hughes (ViiV Healthcare) Jamie Kirkham (University of Liverpool/Merseyside Local Group) Paul Arrowsmith and colleagues at Mills Media Group (www.millsmediagroup.com) for Daphne Kounali (University of Bristol/Avon Local Group/General Applications AV support and staging Section) Andy Lynch (University of Cambridge) Jonathan Wallace for photography Paul Northrop (University College London) Alison Walker (Social Statistics Section) Patrick Wolfe (University College London/RSS Research Section) Venues
Bex Newell (Office for National Statistics) Sarah Taylor and colleagues at Northumbria University Colin Gillespie (Newcastle University/RSS North East Local Group) Tim Paulden (Atass Sports/Young Statisticians Section) Sally Vleugels and colleagues at Northumbria Students’ Union Karen Wynne (University of Northumbria) Jennifer Hawley and colleagues at the BALTIC Centre for the welcome reception
RSS Staff and stewards Victoria Field and colleagues at Great North Museum for the conference dinner
Paul Gentry (conference manager), Sarah Barker (short course coordinator), Jack Gill Pilkington and Anna Moroney at the Newcastle Gateshead Convention Bureau for Beeby (web & multimedia manager), Mawreen Chapman (speaker coordinator), the accommodation booking service
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Notes
30 FOCUSED ON YOUR FUTURE IN DATA MANAGEMENT & STATISTICS
SCAN SIGN UP FOR JOBS BY EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE THE LATEST DATA MANAGEMENT & STATISTICS JOBS
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