May 2011 • Issue #407 AMSTATNEWS The Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association • http://magazine.amstat.org

Croatia

Bosnia Serbia Herzegovina

ThroughPeace Statistics ALSO: Meet Susan Boehmer, New IRS Statistics of Income Director

Publications Agreement No. 41544521 Mining the Science out of Marketing Math Sciences in 2025

AmstatNews May 2011 • Issue #407

Executive Director Ron Wasserstein: [email protected] Associate Executive Director and Director of Operations features Stephen Porzio: [email protected] 3 President’s Invited Column Director of Education Martha Aliaga: [email protected] 5 Pfizer Contributes to ASA's Educational Ambassador Program Director of Science Policy 5 TAS Article Cited in Supreme Court Case Steve Pierson: [email protected] 7 Writing Workshop for Junior Researchers to Take Place at JSM Managing Editor Megan Murphy: [email protected] 8 Meet Susan Boehmer, New IRS Statistics of Income Director

Production Coordinators/Graphic Designers 10 Peace Through Statistics Melissa Muko: [email protected] 15 Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research Kathryn Wright: [email protected] May Issue of SBR: A Festschrift for Gary Koch Publications Coordinator Val Nirala: [email protected] 16 Journal of the American Statistical Association March JASA Features ASA President’s Invited Address Advertising Manager Claudine Donovan: [email protected] 19 Technometrics Fingerprint Individuality Assessment Featured in May Issue Contributing Staff Members Pam Craven • Rosanne Desmone • Fay Gallagher • Eric Sampson

Amstat News welcomes news items and letters from readers on matters of interest to the association and the profession. Address correspondence to Managing Editor, Amstat News, American Statistical Association, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA, or email amstat@ columns amstat.org. Items must be received by the first day of the preceding month to ensure appearance in the next issue (for example, June 1 for the July issue). Material can be sent as a Microsoft Word document, PDF, or within an email. 21 FUNDING OPPORTUNITIES Articles will be edited for space. Accompanying artwork will be accepted The Mathematical Sciences in 2025 in graphics file formats only (.jpg, etc.), minimum 300 dpi. No material in WordPerfect will be accepted. This column highlights research activities that may be of interest to ASA members. These Amstat News (ISSN 0163-9617) is published monthly by the American brief articles include information about new research solicitations and the federal budget Statistical Association, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314- for statistics. Comments or suggestions for future articles may be sent to ASA Research 1943 USA. Periodicals postage paid at Alexandria, Virginia, and additional and Graduate Education Manager Keith Crank at [email protected]. mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Amstat News, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA. Send Canadian address changes to APC, PO Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Rich Hill, Contributing Editor ON L4B 4R6. Annual subscriptions are $50 per year for nonmembers. Amstat Keith Crank earned a BS in mathematics education and an MS in News is the member publication of the ASA. For annual membership rates, see mathematics from Michigan State University and a PhD in statis- www.amstat.org/join or contact ASA Member Services at (888) 231-3473. tics from Purdue University. Prior to joining the ASA as research American Statistical Association and graduate education manager, he was a program officer at the 732 North Washington Street National Science Foundation, primarily in the probability program. Crank Alexandria, VA 22314–1943 USA (703) 684–1221 • FAX: (703) 684-2037

ASA GENERAL: [email protected] 23 MASTER'S NOTEBOOK ADDRESS CHANGES: [email protected] Mining the Science out of Marketing AMSTAT EDITORIAL: [email protected] This column is written for statisticians with master's degrees and highlights areas of ADVERTISING: [email protected] employment that will benefit statisticians at the master's level. Comments and sugges- WebSite: http://magazine.amstat.org tions should be sent to Keith Crank, ASA research and graduate education manager, at Printed in USA © 2011 [email protected]. American Statistical Association Contributing Editor Jim Fong is the newly appointed founding director of research and consulting at the University Professional and Continuing Education Association (UPCEA). He has held many leadership and analytical

Promoting the Practice and Profession of Statistics roles within the research, marketing, and higher education com- The American Statistical Association is the world’s largest munities. Fong can be reached at [email protected] or jimfong@ community of statisticians. The ASA supports excellence in comcast.net. His blog can be found at www.jimfongonline.com. the development, application, and dissemination of statistical Fong science through meetings, publications, membership services, education, accreditation, and advocacy. Our members serve in industry, government, and academia in more than 90 countries, advancing research and promoting sound statistical practice to inform public policy and improve human welfare. columns 25 STATtr@k What Happens at JSM Should Not Stay at JSM How to get the most out of the Joint Statistical Meetings STATtr@k is a column in Amstat News and a website geared toward people who are in a statistics program, recently graduated from a statistics program, or recently entered the job world. To read more articles like this one, visit the website at http://stattrak.amstat.org. If you have suggestions for future articles, or would like to submit an article, please email Online Articles Megan Murphy, Amstat News managing editor, at [email protected]. Contributing Editors The following articles in this issue can be Christopher Bilder is an associate professor in the department of found online at http://magazine.amstat.org. statistics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. He earned his PhD in statistics from Kansas State University and now focuses on devel- What Statisticians Should Watch in oping new statistical methodology to help assay large quantities of Congress in 2011. The 112th Congress is well clinical specimens through the use of group testing. under way, with federal budget discussions Bilder grabbing most of the headlines. Once the fiscal year 2011 (FY11) budget is resolved, what are the issues that might interest ASA members in 2011? Which issues should ASA members contact their members of Congress about? ASA Director of Science Policy Steve Writing Workshop for Pierson’s list includes the FY12 federal Junior Researchers to budgets, forensic science, statistics education, Take Place at JSM p. 7 and U.S. Census Bureau issues. Read more in the May Science Policy column at http:// magazine.amstat.org/blog/2011/04/08/ scipol511.

Jeff Wu to Deliver the COPSS Fisher Lecture. Born in Taiwan, Wu came to the United States to study at the University of California, Berkeley and earned his PhD in statistics in 1976. His research contributions span the full range of statistics, from theory to application, and touch many applied domains, departments from sample surveys to nanotechnology. A 29 meetings special article about Wu’s life, prepared by Michael Newton and Hugh Chipman, can be Stat Bowl Hits the Beach at JSM 2011 viewed online at http://magazine.amstat.org/ blog/2011/05/01/fisher-lecture. JSM 2011 Keynote Speakers

The Benefits of Using Rigorously Tested 2011 FDA Industry/Statistics Workshop Registration Form Routines from Numerical Libraries— 2011 FDA Industry/Statistics Workshop Roundtable Mathematics and Statistics Edition White Luncheon Topics Paper Available. Now mathematicians and statistical researchers—many of who are already contending with slower performance of legacy applications developed for 32- bit processors operating in 64-bit systems member news or supercomputer-level resources—can obtain a white paper tailored to concerns 35 Awards and Deadlines of environmental researchers. “The Benefits 36 People News of Using Rigorously Tested Routines from Numerical Libraries—Mathematics and 37 Section • Chapter • Committee News Statistics Edition” can be obtained by writing to [email protected]. 39 Calendar of Events For details, visit http://magazine.amstat.org/ blog/2011/05/01/white-paper. 40 Professional Opportunities

2 amstat news may 2011 president's invited column

First ASA Conference on Statistical Practice Phil Scinto

To meet the needs of its various constituencies, the ASA decided through its strategic planning process to launch a new meeting aimed at statistical practitioners. That vision is coming to frui- tion in early 2012 with the ASA Conference on Statistical Practice. This month, I have invited Phil Scinto, chair of the Conference on Statistical Practice Organizing Committee, to give you an update on this new and exciting opportunity. ~ Nancy Geller, ASA President

Organizing Committee Sylvia Dohrmann Amy Farris n response to the requests of including data analysts, research- many members, the first ASA ers, and scientists—who use Fay Gallagher Conference on Statistical statistics to solve real-world prob- Stephen Porzio PracticeI (CSP) has been set for lems on a daily basis. The confer- February 16–18, 2012, in ence will provide an opportunity James Rutherford Orlando, Florida, at the to learn about the latest statistical Michael Schell Renaissance Orlando at SeaWorld methodologies and best practices (www.amstat.org/meetings/csp/ in statistical design, analysis, Nathaniel Schenker 2012/index.cfm). programming, and consulting. Keith Schleicher While the Joint Statistical Additionally, you will learn the Meetings (JSM) is the premier following: LeAnna Stork conference for statisticians, it is Kathleen Wert large and diverse. In particular, • Statistical techniques that Philip Scinto JSM cannot focus on the needs apply to your job as an applied of applied and consulting statisti- statistician cians working on urgent problems, issues, and systems for clients and • How to better communicate organizations to improve process- with customers es, products, and decisions. • How to have a positive impact The vision for CSP is to bring on your organization together statistical practitioners—

may 2011 amstat news 3 Annual Conference Committee The CSP will focus on invited highlight or promote statistical presentations and courses full of theory. The conference will have David Nickerson information for you, the practic- an intimate feel (we are targeting LeAnna Stork ing statistician, to take back to 400 people for the initial confer- your job. ence) and will provide opportuni- James Rutherford The intended CSP audience ties for you to learn new statistical Don McCormack includes those statisticians, data methodologies and best practices analysts, researchers, educators, through invited courses and ses- Winson Taam and scientists who engage in sta- sions, posters, and plenary pre- Dominique Haughton tistical analysis, design, and con- sentations. The conference also sulting as a major component of will provide opportunities for Sylvia Dohrmann their jobs. A sizable portion of you to further your career devel- Jennifer Van-Mullekom the audience will have graduate opment through workshops and degrees in statistics or a related seminars on effective communi- Dennis Kunimura area, while others will have no cation, management, and leader- Jyoti Rayamajhi statistics degree, but will have ship skills. In addition, a goal is mastered their skills through self- to strengthen relationships in the Stephen Porzio study or coursework as part of statistical community for those Kathleen Wert another discipline. practitioners not necessarily part It is not the ASA's goal that of an academic community or a Amy Farris the CSP mimic JSM or be an large statistical organization. Fay Gallagher extension of JSM. Nor is the Members of both the CSP CSP intended to be a vehicle to Organizing Committee and the Philip Scinto Annual Conference Committee are diligently working on the 2012 conference program. In fact, 2012 ASA President Bob Rodriguez has agreed to be the plenary speaker and kick off the conference. This initiative will serve applied statisticians in all areas. While sessions and courses are still in development, we plan to have tracks in research and devel- opment, operations and engi- neering; business analytics; and communication, impact, and career development. However, do not let the track names lead you to believe the topics are lim- ited. These tracks, still prelimi- nary, are intended to span diverse areas, industries, and disciplines. Whether you are in industry; government; medical, pharma- ceutical, environmental, business, or economic statistics; education; software; or general consult- ing, there will be something for you. Check the CSP website for updates. n

4 amstat news may 2011 Pfizer Contributes to ASA's Educational Ambassador Program

fizer recently contributed $6,000 to the ASA’s Educational Ambassador (EA)P program for 2011. The EA program was launched in 2005 as a means to foster collaboration between the ASA and other inter- national statistical societies for permanent exchanges of knowl- edge. It has been successful in bringing statistical education to countries and regions in which statistical education receives less- organized support. Pfizer consid- ers this contribution especially worthwhile, since the EA pro- From left: Martha Aliaga, ASA director of eduction; Christy Chuang-Stein, ASA gram could help elevate scientific vice president; and Ron Wasserstein, ASA executive director rigor worldwide. Pfizer also sponsored the JSM 2010 Student Mixer in Vancouver, British Columbia, and will cosponsor the Student TAS Article Cited in Supreme Mixer at JSM 2011 in Miami Court Case Beach, Florida. Pfizer is the world’s leading Rosanne Desmone, ASA Public Relations Specialist innovation-based pharmaceuti- 2009 The American Statistician article, “How Likely Is a cal company. It employs a large Simpson’s Paradox?” was recently cited in a case before number of statisticians in several the Supreme Court. Oral arguments were heard by the parts of the world. Being a global courtA in the case of Dukes v. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. on March 29. company driven by research and An amicus curiae brief filed by CostCo in the case cites the development, Pfizer places a article, which was written by Marios G. Pavildes and Michael strong emphasis on cutting-edge D. Perlman. The paper also was cited in a footnote in the writ- science and technology in all ten decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit areas of discovery, development, (California), allowing the case to move ahead as a class action. and manufacturing of medicines At issue is whether the Supreme Court will certify the case for people and animals. as a class-action suit. The court agreed to hear arguments about State-of-the-art science and whether a federal rule of civil procedure [Rule 23(b)(2)] can be technology is only possible through used to file a class-action suit that demands monetary damages. advanced education and training The court also requested that the parties argue as to whether at all levels. The EA program is the class action meets traditional requirements of numerosity, fundamental in contributing to commonality, typicality, and adequacy of representation. If the the knowledge necessary to evalu- case is allowed to proceed as a class action, it will be one of the ate the value of medicinal products largest—if not the largest—civil rights class-action suits in U.S. in improving human life. n history, encompassing some 1.6 million women who work or have worked for Wal-Mart. CORRECTION: A decision from the court is expected in June. CNN coverage In the April issue of Amstat of the case stated that a ruling by the justices against Wal-Mart News, Andrew Beam’s name could eventually affect nearly every private employer, large was misspelled in the STATtr@k column. We regret the error. and small.

may 2011 amstat news 5 Meeting Within a Meeting (MWM) Statistics Workshop for K-12 Mathematics and Science Teachers (www.amstat.org/education/mwm)

Sponsored by the American Statistical Association (ASA) 2011 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM)*    Based on the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics (corestandards.org) and Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE): A Pre-K–12 Curriculum Framework (www.amstat.org/education/gaise)

Dates: Tuesday, August 2, and Wednesday, August 3, 2011, 8:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.

Places: Miami Beach Convention Center, 1901 Convention Center Drive, Miami Beach, FL 33139-1820, and neighboring hotels (workshop meeting room location to be announced)

Audience: K–12 mathematics and science teachers. Multiple mathematics/science teachers from the same school are especially encouraged to attend. Note: Experienced AP Statistics teachers should register for the Beyond AP Statistics (BAPS) workshop. See www.amstat.org/education/baps for more information.

Objectives: Enhance understanding and teaching of statistics within the mathematics/science curriculum through conceptual understanding, active learning, real-world data applications, and appropriate technology

Content: Teachers will explore problems that require them to formulate questions; collect, organize, analyze, and draw conclusions from data; and apply basic concepts of probability. The MWM program will include exam- ining what students can be expected to do at the most basic level of understanding and what can be expected of them as their skills develop and their experience broadens. Content is consistent with Common Core standards, GAISE recommendations, and NCTM Principles and Standards for School Mathematics.

Presenters: GAISE report authors and prominent statistics educators

Format: Tuesday: Grades K–4 and 9–12 sessions Wednesday: Grades 5–8 session One-day pass to attend activities at JSM (statistics education sessions, poster sessions, exhibit hall) Activity-based sessions, including lesson plan development

Provided: Refreshments Complimentary one-day pass to attend the Joint Statistical Meetings Lodging reimbursement (up to a specified amount) for teachers from outside the Miami area Handouts Certificate of participation from the ASA certifying professional development hours Optional graduate credit

Cost: The course fee for the two days is $50. Note: Course attendees do not need to register for the Joint Statistical Meetings to participate in this workshop.

Follow up: Follow-up activities and webinars (www.amstat.org/education/k12webinars) Network with statisticians and teachers to organize learning communities

Registration: Online registration available at www.amstat.org/education/mwm. Space is limited. If interested in attending, please register as soon as possible.

Contact: Rebecca Nichols, [email protected]; (703) 684-1221, Ext. 1877

*The Joint Statistical Meetings is the largest annual gathering of statisticians, where thousands from around the world meet to share advances in statistical knowledge. The JSM activities include statistics education sessions, poster sessions, and the exhibit hall.

6 amstat news may 2011 Writing Workshop for Junior Researchers to Take Place at JSM Keith Crank, ASA Research and Graduate Education Manager

and will close with discussion and debriefing at a follow-up lunch. The full-day session is scheduled for July 31 in Miami Beach, Florida. At the close of the formal activities, mentors will meet individually with par- ticipants to go over the writing samples they sub- mitted. Each participant will then prepare a revision of a critiqued portion of the paper and return it to the mentor by the evening of August 2. Mentors and participants will meet again in conjunction with a lunch on August 3 to discuss the success of the revi- sions. The lunch program also will include general feedback to participants, mentors, and organizers. Attendance is limited and will depend on the number of mentors available. An online applica- tion form is available at www.amstat.org/meetings/ wwjr/registration. Applications are due by June 1, and successful applicants will be notified by June 30. Applications received after June 1 will be con- sidered if space is available. There is no fee for participation. Participants will receive lunch on July 31 and August 3. Participants must agree to attend both sessions. We anticipate funding for partial travel support. This workshop is designed for researchers with a recent PhD in either statistics or biostatistics. Top he National Institute of Statistical Science priority will go to those who have held the PhD (NISS) and the American Statistical for 0–3 years. The limited funding will be used to Association (ASA) will hold a writing work- support attendance by researchers from U.S. insti- Tshop for junior researchers. The goal of the work- tutions. Current PhD students who are completing shop is to provide instruction about how to write their degree before the end of the summer and who journal articles and grant proposals. Participants will be at U.S. institutions in the fall also will be will be required to provide a recent sample of their considered. If space is available, researchers at insti- writing, which will be reviewed by a senior mentor. tutions outside the United States will be admitted, The sample can be a current draft of an article to be but not provided with travel support. submitted for publication or an early version of a For more information, contact Keith Crank, grant proposal. (Submission of the manuscript will ASA research and graduate education manager, at be required as part of the registration process. Prior [email protected]. n experience suggests that the best results come from submitting an early draft of something that is writ- ten solely or primarily by the participant.) Register online for the Joint Mentors will be former journal editors and pro- Statistical Meetings at www. gram officers, who will critique (a portion of) the submitted material. Individual feedback will be pro- amstat.org/jsmregistration vided as part of the opening session, and participants Don’t miss your chance to participate in will be expected to prepare a revision in response. the largest gathering of statisticians held The workshop will open with a one-day session of in North America. general instruction on effective writing techniques

may 2011 amstat news 7 Meet Susan Boehmer, New IRS Statistics of Income Director

mstat News invited new Statistics of Income Director Susan Boehmer to respond to the following questions so readers could learn more about her and the agency she directs. Look for future new statistical agency headA interviews in forthcoming issues.

Describe the top 2–3 priorities you have for the IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) Division. My goal is for SOI to maintain its status as a premier federal statistical agency. To accomplish this, I plan to focus on three key priorities. First, M. Susan Boehmer joined SOI Fast Facts SOI’s statistical products and services must con- SOI in July 2010. Prior to Part of the IRS Research, Analysis, and tinue to evolve with customers’ needs and exceed that, she served as direc- Statistics Organization expectations. Historically, SOI has met this chal- tor of the IRS Wage and lenge. For example, as customers’ use of the web Investment Division’s Website: www.irs.gov/taxstats grew, we responded. In addition to investing in Planning, Research, and our own website (www.irs.gov/taxstats), SOI is an Analysis. Boehmer also Fiscal Year 2010 budget: $43 million served as the first chief of active participant in the open government initia- tive, Data.gov. Wage and Investment’s Staff size: 180 Business Systems Security Second, SOI must continue to invest in its Office, which included the most outstanding resource: its human capital. We IRS Identity Theft Program must provide challenging, innovative, and reward- Office; director of strategic ing work to our dedicated staff. operations for the Earned Finally, SOI must continue to play a vital role Income Tax Credit pro- What about this position appealed to you? in the federal statistical community. Working gram; and deputy assistant The organization’s vital mission; rich history; and collaboratively with others in the community will regional inspector (internal its professional, dedicated staff made my decision allow SOI to contribute to, and benefit from, agen- audit) in Atlanta, Georgia. to join the Statistics of Income (SOI) Division cies’ ‘best practices.’ By achieving these three priorities, Boehmer is a graduate SOI will thrive as a leading statistical organization. of Northern Kentucky an easy one. SOI is a principal federal statistical agency whose mission is to collect, analyze, and University and a certified What do you see as your biggest challenge(s) for SOI? internal auditor. disseminate information about federal taxation for the Treasury Department’s Office of Tax Analysis, Over the years, SOI has done an outstanding job congressional committees, the Internal Revenue of pioneering new processes and harnessing new Service in its administration of the tax laws, other technology. For example, SOI adopted computer organizations engaged in economic and financial technology, entered the Internet age, built systems analysis, and the general public. for creating digital images of paper documents, SOI has been in the business of producing and and developed techniques for using electronically disseminating tax data for a long time. The Revenue filed return data. However, we cannot be compla- Act of 1916 mandated the annual publication of cent and rest on our previous accomplishments— statistics related to the “operations of the internal we must continue to grow as an organization. revenue laws,” and SOI was created to meet that Like all statistical agencies, we are challenged to requirement. Ultimately, our nation’s leaders use provide more data and provide it faster. We’re also SOI data to shape economic and tax policy, and, in challenged to meet the opportunities that arise that way, SOI plays an important role in achieving from electronic data, all in an environment of good government. shrinking budgets. However, with input from—

8 amstat news may 2011 We certainly look to the statistical and the creativity of—SOI staff, as well as input from our peers in the statistical community, cus- community for help in further tomers, and oversight groups, I know SOI will continue to thrive, providing its customers with promoting our products and services to innovative and high-quality statistical products and services. potential users. How can the statistical community help you? A member of the Interagency Council on Statistical Policy, SOI actively participates in, and benefits from, the federal statistical community. SOI staff support and participate in the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology (FCSM), the interagency committee dedicated to improv- ing the quality of federal statistics. In recent years, filed corporate (and other) tax data. This required SOI has worked with other FCSM agencies to cre- creating “shred scripts” to parse XML data into ate interagency innovation workgroups to share database columns and tables. Since its original ideas and develop ‘best practices.’ Workgroups design, staff [members] have introduced improve- have addressed balancing print and web-based dis- ments to XRDB that have dramatically reduced semination of statistical products, and data review, the time required to complete the annual corpo- editing, and imputation for administrative records rate program. The time savings are impressive. and surveys. This type of collaborative work will Use of XRDB for SOI’s corporate tax program allow SOI to gain valuable knowledge from the reduced cycle time by 3,000 hours, or 17%. statistical community. While SOI’s statistical products and services, Do you envision any major changes to SOI’s projects, and the vehicle for many of those products and products, or services? services, SOI’s Tax Stats website, are well known Of course, in coming years, SOI will continue to and regarded among our primary customers and provide projects, products, and services that meet others, we continually seek new ways to reach new customer needs, and SOI staff will work closely users. We certainly look to the statistical commu- with our primary customers and others to ensure nity for help in further promoting our products our deliverables evolve as customers’ needs change. and services to potential users. For example, in response to customer requests and to make SOI data accessible to a broader audience, Prior to your tenure, what do you see as the biggest recent we have steadily introduced more metadata to the accomplishment of the agency? pages of SOI’s Tax Stats website. SOI also has devel- Again, in its efforts to produce the best possible tax oped a single page snapshot that presents simple data, SOI has always identified process improve- statistical information on various topics for access ments and adopted new technology. Because of by customers who are less familiar with tax data. this, SOI has recently experienced significant We also continue to explore ways to encourage col- reductions in the time required to complete its laborative research on tax issues, while respecting major programs. Let me give one example in the the confidentiality required when sharing tax data. area of corporate tax data. In meeting the needs of our customers, as well as In 2004, the IRS introduced the modernized meeting our original mandate to annually publish electronic filing (MeF) system, which allowed certain statistics related to the operations of the internal corporate taxpayers to file their tax returns electroni- revenue laws, SOI is ever mindful that our data— cally. MeF has expanded, and the IRS now requires and high-quality data produced throughout the all firms with more than $10 million in assets and at federal statistical community—play a critical role in least 250 annual filings to file electronically. Talented achieving good government. That’s a great respon- IT and other staff within SOI developed an XML sibility and one that SOI takes very seriously. n relational database (XRDB) to store electronically

may 2011 amstat news 9 Slovenia

Croatia Serbia

Bosnia Herzegovina

ThroughPeace Statistics Jürgen Symanzik, Utah State University, and Natascha Vukasinovic

10 amstat news may 2011 he list of recent Nobel Peace Prize Tlaureates goes as follows: • 2009—Barack H. Obama, president of the United States of America • 2010—Liu Xiaobo, Chinese dissident • 2011—Miodrag Lovrić (Serbia), Jasmin Komić (Bosnia and Herzegovina), and Ksenija Dumičić (Croatia), statisticians

That’s a joke, isn’t it? Actually, no, but a pos- sible (perhaps not very likely) outcome for the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize award. Lovrić, Komić, and Dumičić were among the 241 nominations (188 individuals and 53 organizations) entered by the February 1, 2011, deadline for the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize. What led to the nomination of a group of three statisticians for such a prestigious award? Flashback to the 1990s: The Yugoslav Wars and Split of Former Yugoslavia The fall of communism in eastern European states resulted in mostly peaceful splits of former commu- nist countries such as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and Czechoslovakia in the early 1990s. However, this wasn’t the case for Yugoslavia. Due to tensions between different ethnicities (e.g., Serbs, Albanians, Bosniaks, Croats, Macedonians, Montenegrins, Slovenes), religions (e.g., orthodox Christian Serbs, Catholic Croats, Muslim Bosniaks), and economic pressures, a series of multiple wars broke out in Yugoslavia throughout the 1990s. As a result of these wars, Yugoslavia broke into seven

may 2011 amstat news 11 Figure 1. Countries and subregions resulting from the split of former Yugoslavia, as of 2008 Map obtained from http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/Former_Yugoslavia_2008.PNG on March 10, 2011

independent states: Bosnia and Herzegovina (with three political entities, the Republika Srpska - RS, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Brčko District), Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia, as shown in 2008 in Figure 1. Recent History: Did Science Lose? Since the 1990s, the quality of education at many universities in Yugoslavia has deteriorated due to lack of funding and political instability. Many uni- versities have become a place of political opposition, rather than a place to study and conduct research. Similar to other natural sciences and mathematics, the field of statistics suffered tremendously in all countries that originated from former Yugoslavia. As an example, only one student earned a PhD in sta- tistics since 2002 from the University of Belgrade. The International Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences

Figure 2. First few paragraphs of an invitation from May 2009 to contribute To help mediate the lack of statistical education to the lexicon. This invitation resulted in an article titled “Interactive and and statistical expertise in the spin-off countries of Dynamic Statistical Graphics.” former Yugoslavia, Lovrić formed an organizational committee in late 2007, with one member each from Bosnia and Herzegovina (Komić, committee

12 amstat news may 2011 Figure 3. Map showing 104 countries representing a total of 619 authors who contributed to the IESS. Two hundred fourteen (roughly 35%) of the authors reside in the United States. Some sources counted Hong Kong as an indepen- dent 105th country.

president), Croatia (Dumičić), Macedonia (Kalina Yugoslavia, but in many developing countries, as Trenevska Blagoeva), Serbia (Milan Merkle), and well. A main focus of the project became to “help Slovenia (Jože Rovan). Initially, the idea was to revive statistics education in developing countries.” write and promote a dictionary of statistics with Therefore, statistical experts from around the world, only statisticians from former Yugoslavia as contrib- including many from developing countries, were utors. Later, the name of this project was changed invited to write an article. Figure 2 shows the first to lexicon of statistics. Deciding on a language for few paragraphs of an email invitation from May this dictionary/lexicon was difficult as many related, 2009 that further described the motivation for the but different, languages are spoken in these coun- lexicon. The name of the project changed once more tries. Eventually, the decision was made to publish to its final name, the International Encyclopedia all entries in English. of Statistical Sciences (IESS) (www.springer.com/ Lovrić and Vladislav Milošević (who passed statistics/book/978-3-642-04897-5). away in 2009) were the original co-editors of the In an email, Lovrić stated: “It was a kind of dictionary/lexicon. They came up with the idea destiny that the current president of the Republic from long discussions between Lovrić and Komić of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, had a visionary view while working on their textbook, Statistička Analiza and helped me substantially.” The initial con- – Metode i Primjena (Statistical Analysis – Methods tact between Lovrić and Dodik was established and Applications), that was published in 2006 in through Komić. Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Lovrić said, The preface of the IESS says, “This goal [to “I sent the first invitation to Sir David Cox on May help revive statistics education] has attracted and 23, 2008.” Contributions followed from such emi- united many leading world statisticians, four nent statisticians as Peter Hall, Bradley Efron, James Nobel Laureates, many eminent mathemati- Hamilton, Robert Tibshirani, David Moore, Ronald cians, psychologists, philosophers, econometri- Iman, Peter Diggle, and E.L. Lehmann. Short arti- cians, economists, academicians, presidents and cles also came in from Thomas Hettmansperger, founders of statistical societies, and editors and Peter Kennedy, Geert Molenberghs, Hirotogu associate editors of many reputed internation- Akaike, and Alan Agresti. al journals.” Eventually, 619 authors from 104 Over time, members of the organizational com- countries (see Figure 3 for a geographic break- mittee realized statistics and statistics education was down) contributed 636 entries to the IESS. With not only in decline in spin-off countries of former respect to the number of countries involved, this

may 2011 amstat news 13 Lovrić, Komić, and Dumičić “provided an outstanding con- tribution to world peace and science, making the largest international scientific project ever implemented in history"

From left: Miodrag Lovrić, Ksenija Dumičić, and Jasmin Komić

is one of the largest international scientific proj- proposal. The government also joined and autho- ects and bypasses the number of participating rized the minister of education, minister of finance, countries of most, if not all, previous statistical minister of science and technology, minister of eco- lexica and encyclopedias. The list of contributors nomic and regional relationships, and minister of has been reposted at www.amstat.org/news/pdfs/ justice to sign the proposal and formally nominate contributors_iess.pdf. Lovrić, Komić, and Dumičić. The justification While Lovrić (due to Milošević’s health) had to for the nomination was that Lovrić, Komić, and do almost all the editorial work, he gives credit to Dumičić “provided an outstanding contribution the contributors: “Finally, it is very important to to world peace and science, making the largest stress out the help of many statisticians worldwide international scientific project ever implemented (starting with Sir David Cox). Many of them sug- in history (the number of countries involved)—the gested new names for contributors and topics, also International Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences— many took the role of referees. Therefore, I regard which is the work of 619 eminent experts from IESS as a joint world effort.” 105 countries from six continents.” Moreover, one The three-volume hardcover edition of the IESS of the justifications stated, “No one in history has currently retails for $1,100, but there exist freely ever managed to unite, like brothers, the nations on accessible versions of the articles at http://statprob. this planet under one pacifistic and scientific idea, com, where many of the contributing authors of the as it succeeded Miodrag Lovrić, Jasmin Komić, and IESS have been invited to upload their entries. Ksenija Dumičić due to the fact that they and their many years of outstanding efforts could unite sci- The Nobel Peace Prize Nomination entists from countries that account for 90% of the In late January 2011, numerous newspapers and world’s population.” In an email, Lovrić indicated TV channels in some of the spin-off countries of their nomination was supported by two additional former Yugoslavia reported that Lovrić, Komić, and qualified nominators from Serbia and Spain. Dumičić were nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. The online SUTRA magazine from Bosnia and While the Nobel Peace Prize Committee in Oslo, Herzegovina concluded, “These candidates belong Norway, restricts disclosure of the nominations, the to three different countries, three religions in the area qualified nominators have the right to reveal whom that was affected by conflicts, and if they were awarded they have nominated. it would be a paradigm, a model, and a signal for all Lovrić, Komić, and Dumičić were initially pro- new generations in the region that the political solu- posed by the Academy of Sciences and Arts (and tion can only be reached on the basis of joint work its president) of the Republika Srpska. Later, the and concessions, rather than war and violence.” n RS Ministry of Science and Technology joined the

14 amstat news may 2011 Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research May Issue of SBR: A Festschrift for Gary Koch Steven Snapinn, Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research Editor

Award from the American Public There also will be approximately Health Association and the John 20 scientific articles by a distin- E. Larsh Jr. Award for Mentorship guished set of authors, including from UNC in recognition of his former students, touching on the impact as a mentor. many topics Koch has contrib- This special issue was initiated uted to during his career. by previous SBR editor, Joseph This special issue of SBR also Heyse, and is guest edited by will be the topic of an invited John Preisser, research professor paper session at the Joint Statistical in the department of biostatis- Meetings in Miami Beach, tics at UNC. Two highlights are Florida, scheduled for August 3. a biography of Koch by Preisser It will be chaired by LaVange and Gary Grove Koch and Dennis Gillings, chair and include presentations by Sue- CEO of Quintiles Transnational Jane Wang of the U.S. Food and Corporation and a former UNC Drug Administration, George ’d like to highlight a special biostatistics professor, and a con- Chi of Johnson & Johnson, and issue of Statistics in versation with Koch conducted J. Richard Landis of The Biopharmaceutical Research by Lisa LaVange of the depart- University of Pennsylvania. A dis- I(SBR) that will appear in May ment of biostatistics at UNC. cussion will be led by Koch. n 2011. This issue will be dedicated to the festschrift celebration of the career and life of Gary Grove Koch, which took place on October 12–13, 2009, in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Koch is professor of biostatis- tics and director of the Biometric Consulting Laboratory in the Gillings School of Global Public Health at The University of North Carolina (UNC). He earned a BS in mathematics and MS in industrial engineering from The Ohio State University and a PhD in statistics from UNC. In December 1967, he was appointed to the faculty of the department of biostatistics at UNC, where he teaches and con- ducts research to this day. Koch’s principal research inter- est is the development of statisti- cal methodology for the analysis of categorical data and its corre- sponding application to a wide range of settings in the health sciences. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and has received the Spiegelman

may 2011 amstat news 15 Journal of the American Statistical Association March JASA Features ASA President’s Invited Address Hal Stern, JASA Applications and Case Studies Editor

data are a critical part of the modern business world and present numerous economic challeng- es to companies. Data centers generate enormous amounts of heat that must be removed to allow for efficient cooling of the machines residing inside the centers. Indeed, a significant amount of the power consumption in a data center is for heat removal. To perform heat removal well, it is critical to efficiently learn about the distribution of heat throughout the often irregularly shaped data cen- ters. Ying Hung, in “Adaptive Probability-Based Latin Hypercube Designs,” describes statistical procedures that can be used to design optimal astry Pantula, 2010 ASA president, talked placement of sensors in data centers to study the about the critically important role for statis- thermal distribution. The use of adaptive designs tics in an increasingly data-rich world dur- that change as data are collected can introduce ingS the presidential address at the Joint Statistical bias into conventional estimators. Hung devel- Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia, ops several design-unbiased estimators and stud- Canada, last August, and his remarks appear in ies their performance through simulation and in the March 2011 issue of the Journal of the a real application. American Statistical Association. Pantula gives Another “large data” problem arises when many examples of how statisticians are rising to investigators try to combine data from a multitude the challenge in various fields, including biology, of studies that are addressing the same or similar meteorology, marketing, and manufacturing. For problem. In “Confidence Distributions and a example, statisticians are playing critical roles in Unifying Framework for Meta-Analysis,” Minge the analysis of genomic data in studies of disease Xie, Kesar Singh, and William E. Strawderman and in the study of large-scale climate models and develop novel and robust approaches for meta- databases. Pantula notes that collaboration is analysis based on the emerging methodology of critical to the study of such large data sets and confidence distributions. encourages statisticians to partner with scientists A confidence distribution (CD) is a probability in other fields. He also notes the important role distribution function that can provide confidence statisticians play in ensuring the role of uncer- intervals of all levels for a parameter of interest. tainty and variation is well understood. The The authors note that although most people think remainder of the March issue provides numerous of the CD as a purely frequentist concept, the CD articles that illustrate many of the topics Pantula in fact links to Bayesian inference concepts and to talks about. the fiducial arguments of R. A. Fisher. The authors propose robust CD methods that are not sensitive Theory and Methods to a small number of outlying studies and study A key Theory and Methods paper addresses fun- the robust methods under two complementary damental statistical problems that arise in the asymptotic frameworks. supposedly simple act of storing the vast amounts One asymptotic framework is for the case of data being generated. Data centers that house that the size of each component study increas- multiple servers to handle the increasing flow of es without bound; the second is for the case

16 amstat news may 2011 where study-specific information is fixed, but is not a probability-based sample, then the subse- the number of studies increases. For both cases, quent samples are not probability samples either. the authors derive asymptotic efficiency results of Unfortunately, there are few alternatives in the robust procedures. The authors use two meta- such settings. Statistical innovations have focused analysis studies (one on prophylactic use of lido- on ways to improve estimation in such set- caine after a heart attack; the second on a surgi- tings. Krista Gile’s article, “Improved Inference cal treatment for stomach ulcers) to compare the for Respondent-Driven Sampling Data with robust meta-analysis approaches to conventional Application to HIV Prevalence Estimation,” con- model-based meta-analysis approaches. tinues to develop this important approach. She notes that current popular approaches to obtain- Applications and Case Studies ing inferences from respondent-driven samples One can argue that biology has been the science assume each round of sampling is carried out most dramatically revolutionized by the large “with replacement” from the population and amounts of data emerging from new technolo- shows that this can lead to bias in various situa- gies. Gene sequence data allows scientists to iden- tions. The article presents an alternative approach tify individual nucleotide-level variation associ- that respects the “without replacement” aspect of ated with disease and gene expression data allow the sampling process. The method is studied in scientists to identify genes whose products may be simulations that vary the size of the hidden popu- implicated in a disease pathway. Many recent stud- lation and the prevalence of the characteristic of ies show interesting patterns of correlation among interest. The approach is illustrated on HIV data the expression of genes on a chromosome—genes collected in two countries with varying charac- that are not contiguous along the genome may be teristics and appears to provide new insight into highly correlated, most likely because of the three- the data. dimensional chromosome folding that occurs to Of course, the above articles are just a sample pack our DNA into the cell. of March’s offerings. The full list of articles, with Guanghua Xiao, Xinlei Wang, and Arkady downloadable abstracts, can be obtained from the Khodursky, in “Modeling Three-Dimensional JASA website at http://pubs.amstat.org/loi/jasa. n Chromosome Structures Using Gene Expression Data,” develop a hierarchical model that links gene expression to key parameters describing the helical structure of the folded genome. They are able to quantify and infer structure (i.e., they can learn about the way the DNA appears to be organized within the cell) by using data from gene expression microarrays. Simulation stud- ies demonstrate the practicality of the approach. Applications show how genes that are not near each other on the genome can be functionally associated because they are brought into close physical proximity by chromosome folding. This statistical approach helps to further our insight into the relationship of chromosome structure Fourth International Conference on and function. A final feature article in the March issue con- Establishment Surveys (ICESIV) cerns methods for sampling difficult populations. In studies of HIV prevalence, it can be difficult Le Centre Sheraton Montréal Hotel to obtain representative samples because the at- Montréal, Québec, Canada risk population is hard to reach for investigators. At the same time, the population is itself highly June 11–14, 2012 inter-connected via social networks. This has Visit the ICESIV web page at led to the development of “respondent-driven” sampling, a method whereby an initial sample is www.amstat.org/meetings/ices/2012 for details. selected and then subsequent sample members are selected based on their relationships with earlier sampled units. Of course, when the initial sample

may 2011 amstat news 17

Technometrics Fingerprint Individuality Assessment Featured in May Issue Hugh A. Chipman, Technometrics Editor

Two fingerprints showing different ridge flow patterns and minutiae clustering characteristics

he fingertip pattern of an individual is clustering characteristics for two fingerprints. White unique to that person. This is the central squares and lines denote minutiae locations and premise of fingerprint-based authentication orientations, respectively. A high number of Tsystems. In practice, various sources of variability minutiae matches would provide support for a can confound this uniqueness information, leading genuine match. to erroneous decisions. A central problem in fin- By viewing the minutiae information as a marked gerprint analysis is to determine the amount of point process in two dimensions (with orientations information in a fingerprint and assess the extent as the marks), the paper develops novel point process of uniqueness. These problems can be addressed by models with spatially dependent mark distributions, eliciting statistical models that adequately capture using them to assess individuality. Are the two fin- the different sources of variability. gerprints shown a genuine match? Check out this In “Assessing Fingerprint Individuality Using featured article (available at http://pubs.amstat.org/loi/ EPIC: A Case Study in the Analysis of Spatially tech) to find out. Dependent Marked Processes,” Chae Yong Lim The issue features several novel statistical methods and Sarat Dass develop statistical models for fin- inspired by interesting and challenging applications. gerprint features called “minutiae” that exhibit cer- For example, motivated by a design and analysis tain distributional characteristics, such as cluster- problem relating to the formulation of a new potato ing tendencies and spatial dependence. Inference crisp, Lulu Kang, V. Roshan Joseph, and William methodology is developed for these models and is A. Brenneman develop “Design and Modeling used for quantifying the extent of uniqueness in a Strategies for Mixture-of-Mixtures Experiments.” pair of fingerprints. In mixture-of-mixtures experiments, major compo- A salient characteristic of fingerprint images is nents are themselves mixtures of some other compo- the smooth flow-like patterns with alternating dark nents, called minor components. Sometimes, com- and light lines, termed as ridges and valleys, over the ponents are divided into different categories where entire fingerprint domain. Occasionally, the ridges each category is called a major component and the abruptly end or bifurcate, and these anomalous ter- components within a major component become minations and bifurcations are termed as minutiae. minor components. The special structure of the Minutiae information consists of the location and mixture-of-mixtures experiment makes design and orientation of the ridge anomaly. The picture above modeling different from a typical mixture experi- illustrates different ridge flow patterns and minutiae ment. Constraints imposed by both the mixture-

may 2011 amstat news 19 of-mixtures structure and other practical consider- remains high. The model provides a framework for ations add further complexity. The authors propose answering questions about the effects of reduced a new model called the major-minor model to over- sampling, providing managers with an assessment come some of the limitations of the commonly used of how confidence will be affected if the surveillance multiple-Scheffé model. A strategy is developed for rate is decreased to save money. designing experiments that are much smaller in size In “Blocked Designs for Experiments with Non- than those based on the existing methods. Normal Response,” David Woods and Peter van de In “Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Ven develop efficient blocked designs for nonstan- Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity dard response models. The paper presents the first Market Forecasting,” Andrés M. Alonso, Carolina general methods for exponential family responses García-Martos, Julio Rodríguez, and María Jesús described by a marginal model fitted via general- Sánchez develop a novel model that combines factor ized estimating equations. This methodology is analysis and time series to predict Spanish electric- appropriate when the blocking factor is a nuisance ity prices. Electricity’s special features (nonstorability variable, as often occurs in industrial experiments. and instantaneous response to demand) are respon- A D-optimality criterion is developed for finding sible for largely unpredictable price behavior. Accurate designs robust to the values of the marginal model forecasts address a problem of national importance parameters and applied using two strategies: unre- and enable the appropriate scheduling of generation stricted algorithmic search and blocking of an opti- units. The authors propose the seasonal dynamic mal design for the corresponding generalized linear factor analysis (SeaDFA), accomplishing dimension model. Designs from each strategy are shown to be reduction in vectors of time series so both common more efficient than designs that ignore blocking. and specific components are extracted, accounting for In recent years, a great deal of effort has been regular dynamics and seasonality. invested in developing sensors to detect, locate, and In studies in which data are generated from identify “energetic” electromagnetic events based on multiple locations or sources, anomalous obser- imaging spectrometer data. In “Modeling Spectral- vations are not uncommon. Motivated by the Temporal Data from Point Source Events,” Monica application of establishing a reference value in an Reising, Max Morris, Stephen Vardeman, and inter-laboratory setting with outlying labs, Garritt Shawn Higbee discuss model building for spec- Page and David Dunson propose “Bayesian Local tral-temporal data of this type. It is imperative in Contamination Models for Multivariate Outliers.” military applications to quickly identify particular The local contamination model flexibly accom- characteristic patterns of evolution over time. While modates unusual multivariate realizations. The physical sensor technology is developing rapidly, proposed method models the process level of a there is a lag in the development of algorithms that hierarchical model using a mixture with a paramet- can be used to identify and discriminate between ric component and a possibly nonparametric con- types of energetic events in real time. The models tamination. Considerable flexibility is achieved by developed in this paper are a first step to narrowing allowing varying random subsets of the elements in the data-algorithm gap. the lab-specific mean vectors to be allocated to the The issue closes with an interesting combina- contamination component. tion of application and methods. Partha Sarathi Weapons stockpiles are expected to have high Mukherjee and Peihua Qiu develop “3-D Image reliability over time, but prudence demands regu- Denoising by Local Smoothing and Nonparametric lar testing to rule out the possibility of detrimen- Regression,” responding to increased availability tal aging effects. That is, one must keep watch for of 3-D images from magnetic resonance imaging unexpected degradations to maintain confidence (MRI), functional MRI (fMRI), and other sources that reliability is high. In “A Random Onset Model Removal of noise from observed 3-D images can for Degradation of High-Reliability Systems,” Scott substantially improve subsequent image analyses. Vander Wiel, Alyson Wilson, Todd Graves, and The complex structure of 3-D images makes direct Shane Reese present a model for a stockpile in which extensions of 2-D denoising methods inefficient. For initially high reliability could begin to decline at any instance, edge locations are surfaces in 3-D cases, time. Each year presents a small chance that degra- which are much more challenging to handle. A dation begins and continues at a fixed but uncer- strength of the method is its ability to preserve edges tain rate. Under these conditions, ongoing testing and major edge structures such as intersections of two is imperative to maintain confidence that reliability edge surfaces, pyramids, and pointed corners. n

20 amstat news may 2011 columns FUNDING OPPORTUNITIES The Mathematical Sciences in 2025 Keith Crank, ASA Research and Graduate Education Manager

he Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications (BMSA) is Tpart of the National Academy of Sciences. It was recently asked by the Division of Mathematical Sciences (DMS) at the National Science Foundation to study the state of the mathematical sciences and make projections. The BMSA organized a committee to under- take this study, and Scott Weidman is the study director. As part of the study, Weidman and members of the committee will hold a forum at JSM (ten- tatively scheduled for August 2 at 1 p.m.) to get feedback from the statistics community. It is important for the statistical research community to partici- pate. Although I believe statistics and mathematics are separate disciplines (and should be treat- ed separately), they are treated as one at NSF. If statistics is not included in the study report, future DMS division directors could take funding from the sta- tistics program and move it into emerging trends, assessing both and community. Here, “dis- other mathematics programs. the vitality of research and the cover” refers to basic research Additional information and impact of research and training. at the frontiers of knowledge the opportunity to provide The study will develop a stra- in mathematics and statis- feedback online are available at tegic view useful to the various tics. “Connections” refers to the study’s website, http://sites. stakeholders in mathematical sci- exploiting research opportuni- nationalacademies.org/DEPS/ ences, including the mathemat- ties at boundaries of the math- BMSA/DEPS_059424. The fol- ics and statistics communities; ematical sciences to promote lowing information is taken federal and nonfederal sponsors the progress of science, to directly from there: of mathematical sciences research enhance national security, and and education; the broad science to strengthen economic com- Study Overview In September and engineering enterprise; and petitiveness. “Community” 2010, the National Academies the leadership of business, indus- refers to cultivating a commu- launched a study on the math- try, government laboratories, and nity of researchers, students, ematical sciences in 2025. A federal mission agencies. and professionals of sufficient National Academies committee This strategic examination breadth, depth, and diversity will produce a forward-looking will cover three aspects of the to sustain the nation’s math- assessment of the current state of mathematical sciences enter- ematical sciences enterprise in the mathematical sciences and of prise: discovery, connections, the 21st century.

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This study is expected to run Academies, the organization pro- The impact of research and through 2011, with the commit- duces groundbreaking reports training in the mathematical tee releasing its final report in that have helped shape sound sciences on science and engi- the first half of 2012. Midway policies; inform public opinion; neering, industry and tech- through the study, after the and advance the pursuit of sci- nology, innovation and eco- committee has identified recent ence, engineering, and medicine. nomic competitiveness, research accomplishments as part national security, and other of its assessment of the vitality of Statement of Task The study areas of national interest the field, it will produce an inter- will produce a forward-looking The study will make recom- im report about some of those assessment of the current state mendations to NSF’s Division of accomplishments. This interim of the mathematical sciences and Mathematical Sciences about how report will be geared toward emerging trends that will affect to adjust its portfolio of activities nonmathematical readers who the discipline and its stakeholders to improve the vitality and impact would like to know more about as they look ahead to the quarter of the discipline. mathematical research. century mark. Specifically, the The project is sponsored by the Four private, nonprofit, non- study will assess the following: National Science Foundation. governmental organizations com- prise the [National] Academies: The vitality of research in the the National Academy of mathematical sciences, looking To contact me, send an email Sciences, the National Academy at such aspects as the unity and to [email protected]. Questions of Engineering, the Institute coherence of research, signifi- or comments about this article, of Medicine, and the National cance of recent developments, as well as suggestions for future Research Council. Known rate of progress at the frontiers, articles, are always welcome. n collectively as the National and emerging trends

Please visit www.amstat.org/learnstatondemand for the full catalog and to register.

22 amstat news may 2011 columns MASTER’S NOTEBOOK Mining the Science Out of

y initial foray into sta- Marketing tistics and analytics began when I was a Jim Fong seniorM in high school. I was attending a Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns game at the Boston based on who had the most rel- of Vermont, statisticians were Garden in 1983. My best friend evant experience and more about groomed for biostatistics, census, somehow got his hands on VIP the interpretation of market or the sciences—not market- tickets and we sat in the second research findings as to segment- ing. Few knew the world would row of the upper level, immedi- ing the market, identifying the explode digitally and demand ately behind where the journal- strongest attribute to leverage in more statistics to “define the tar- ists and statisticians sat with their a marketing campaign, forecast- get market,” “mine data for pat- paper charts (not laptops). One ing demand and market share, terns,” or “model what’s causing statistician was recording tick and assessing the competition. churn (customer loss).” marks of where legendary Larry Marketing managers, vice I evolved from being a data Bird was successful and where he presidents, database marketers, collection director, statistician/ wasn’t. He did the same for other creative teams, and web design- analyst, and director of research stars on the parquet floor that ers rallied around marketing at a survey research firm to ulti- afternoon and shared with me strategies and tactics derived mately a marketing consultant how the game was being man- from market research. Statistical in the higher education indus- aged through data. analyses and market research try. My job has me spending less I was sold on being a sports gave the educational institutions time directly mining data and statistician, although it took me a competitive edge in know- more time working with analysts 15 years and a number of market ing what degree to launch in to interpret data. I still consider research and advertising research an online environment or what myself a marketing researcher jobs before I got as close as I message to develop for a specific and statistician, but with dif- would get to a sports career— market segment. Market research ferent skill sets, some of which Penn State University. I didn’t get became the voice of the customer have evolved while others have to touch any sports data in that in complex organizations other- atrophied. To compensate, I’ve job, but I could feel the sports wise paralyzed by data. incorporated new tools into the flavor in the air. I was primarily What made marketers respect decisionmaking process such as in charge of a team of researchers and adopt market research was word clouds, in-depth interviews measuring market possibilities for how an analyst transformed the and focus groups, analyzing geo- the Penn State World Campus, data into information, and infor- graphical information systems its online degree-offering entity. mation into meaning, and mean- (GIS), and observational or expe- In jobs before and after Penn ing into action. Many marketing riential research. State, I was immersed in how departments within higher edu- The problems asked of me as an analytics influenced the market- cation are, themselves, trans- educational marketing and research ing process. I soon learned there forming from an “advertising” consultant are often “Can I launch were diverse marketing team orientation, which tended to be this master’s degree online?” or members and data were often the more of a creative process. True “Why are we losing students?” or unifying factor. strategic marketing is a pure sci- “We need a new marketing strat- Delivering concise marketing ence—leveraging data, informa- egy. Can you help determine what summaries, models, and impli- tion, and statistics—but adopts the positioning should be?” Just as cations made marketing teams a creative process as one of many a cabinet maker would design a more unified, efficient, and stra- potential outcomes. plan, I’ve had to design a research tegic. Debates within marketing In the late 80s, when I earned plan that addresses many fac- teams were less about instinct my BS in mathematics and MS tors, including budget, reliability about what should be done next in statistics from the University needed, time constraints, meeting

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The problems asked of me secondary research. The market analyses take place where hypoth- researcher also has GIS software, eses are accepted or not accepted, as an educational marketing demographic and trend data, models are built, and insights and web analytics, focus groups and actions are developed. qualitative research, advertising While one may not see the and research consultant tracking studies, observational market research career as socially research, pricing models, and rewarding like the Peace Corps or are often “Can I launch this conjoint analysis. engineering sound bridges, it is To know whether to launch a amazingly rewarding. I am emo- master’s degree online? particular master’s degree online, tionally rewarded when I see the I would conduct an environmen- success and implementation of tal scan on industries and com- a new and successful marketing petitors. To build a good survey, I campaign or a reversal of declin- might conduct an opinion leader ing university enrollments due in customer needs, and creating the survey of eight to 12 experts in part to data-driven actions. final product. the specific field. I would then Demand for analysts and mar- A cabinet maker has a tool draw my sample and design my ket research will only increase in box and so does the market survey. Implementing the sur- the future. Analysts and market researcher. Rather than ham- vey and data collection follows, researchers are also more likely mers, saws, and screwdrivers, and any good analyst knows that to have a place at the strategic the market researcher has statis- “garbage in equals garbage out,” planning table. There are many tical tools such as surveys, sam- so monitoring and pre-testing is strong signs showing increased pling, statistical models, and critical. Last, but not least, the future demand and hiring for skilled analysts. For example, digital and data storage compa- nies, corporations, and statistical software companies are placing greater emphasis and investing significant resources on devel- oping stronger data mining tools, software, and processes. Industries are relying more on strong analysts to monitor and improve customer satisfaction, increase revenues from primary target markets, enter new markets with new products, acquire great- er market share through stronger messaging, guard against fraud through pattern recognition, and create optimal pricing models for different markets or segments. Northwestern and DePaul recent- ly announced graduate degrees in predictive analytics, which also may signal the demand for greater analytical powers. For me, market research has been that slam dunk I was looking for as a youth. It was the evolution of tick marks on the page to reaching into the market research tool box for the answer. n

24 amstat news may 2011 columns stattr@k What Happens at JSM Should Not Stay at JSM How to get the most out of the Joint Statistical Meetings Christopher Bilder, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

he largest congregation of statisticians in the world happens every August during the Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM). More than T5,000 people attend these meetings, which are sponsored by seven statistical societies, including the American Statistical Association. The meetings offer activities such as attending research presenta- tions, interviewing for jobs, taking continuing edu- cation courses, and browsing the exhibition hall. With so many opportunities, new attendees can be easily overwhelmed by their first JSM experience. Based on my experience attending the last 11 meetings and the experiences of student groups I have led, I’m going to tell you how to get the most out of JSM. If you would like to share your own recom- mendations, I encourage you to submit a comment at http://stattrak.amstat.org/2011/04/11/mostjsm. Before JSM Prepare before you leave. First, you should decide whether you want to give a presentation. For new attendees who choose to present, most give a con- tributed presentation, which is either an orally pre- sented paper or poster. The deadline to submit a corresponding abstract is usually February 1, and all are accepted. Additional proof of progress (e.g., drafts of a paper) for the presentation must be sub- mitted by mid-May. A preliminary program listing the presentation Unlike invited and topic-contributed sessions, schedule is available online (www.amstat.org/meet- contributed presentations are submitted individu- ings/jsm/2011/onlineprogram) in April. Because there ally and then grouped by JSM Program Committee may be more than 40 concurrent presentations at members. Poster presentations (most are within con- any time, it is best to arrive at JSM with an idea of tributed sessions) involve speakers being available for which to attend. This can be done by examining the questions next to their displayed poster during the session titles and performing keyword searches in entire session. the online program prior to JSM. Online registration for JSM begins around May Presentations are separated into invited, topic- 1. For members of a sponsoring statistical society, contributed, and contributed sessions, each lasting 1 the cost is $355 in 2011 during the early registra- hour and 50 minutes. Invited and topic-contributed tion period. The cost increases to $435 if you reg- sessions include groups of related presentations that ister at JSM. Registration for student members is were submitted together and selected by JSM Program only $80 in 2011, and this rate is available at any Committee members. Oral presentations each last for time. Also starting around May 1, you can reserve a 25 or more minutes for invited and 20 minutes for hotel room through the JSM website. A number of topic-contributed. Contributed paper sessions include hotels near the convention center are designated as groups of 15-minute oral presentations. official conference hotels, and they discount their

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At JSM JSM begins on a Sunday afternoon in late July or early August. Business casual clothing is the most prevalent attire, but some attendees wear suits and Important Links others wear T-shirts and shorts. When you arrive at Below are a number of web links corresponding to the JSM, go to the registration counter at the conven- topics described in this article: tion center to obtain your name tag and conference program book. The program book will contain a JSM 2011: www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011 map of the convention center that can be useful Program: www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011/ for finding session rooms. To welcome and orient new attendees, the onlineprogram/index.cfm JSM first-time attendee orientation and reception Job seekers: www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011/index. is scheduled for early Sunday afternoon. Also, cfm?fuseaction=applicants the opening mixer on Sunday evening provides drinks, hors d’oeuvres, and the opportunity to Continuing education courses and monitors: www.amstat. meet other attendees. org/meetings/jsm/2011/index.cfm?fuseaction=ce The main sessions start on Sunday at 2:00 p.m. Student paper competitions: www.amstat.org/education/ Many of the research presentations are difficult to awardsandcompetitions.cfm understand completely. My goal for a session is to have one or two presentations in which I learn STATtr@k: http://stattrak.amstat.org something relevant to my teaching or research inter- ests. This may seem rather low, but these items add up after attending many sessions. For attendees who teach introductory cours- es, the sessions sponsored by the ASA Section on Statistical Education are often the easiest to under- normal rates. However, even with a discount, you stand. Many of these sessions share innovative ideas can expect to pay $200 or more per night for a about how to teach particular topics. room. Most meetings also offer a less-expensive Introductory overview lectures are another lodging option for students, usually housing at a type of session that has easier-to-understand top- nearby university or hostel. ics. Recent lectures have included introductions to Attending JSM can be expensive. Students have missing data, spatial analysis, and multiple testing. several options to reduce the cost burden. First, There are also many continuing education courses ask your adviser or department for funding. Many available for an additional fee. However, you can departments offer financial support for students attend a course for free by volunteering prior to who present their research at JSM. Students also JSM to be a monitor. Monitors perform duties such may qualify for funding from the student activities as distributing and picking up materials during the office on their campus. For example, when I was course. As an added benefit, monitors can attend a student, my department’s statistics club received one additional course for free without any duties. funding this way, which paid for most of my first Keynote addresses at JSM are usually scheduled JSM expenses. for late afternoon on Monday through Wednesday. In addition to school-based resources, many ASA On Tuesday evening, the ASA presidential address is sections sponsor student paper competitions that given, along with a number of awards and introduc- provide travel support to award winners. For exam- tions of the new ASA fellows. The fellows introduction ple, the Biometrics Section of the ASA sponsors the is especially interesting because approximately 50 ASA David P. Byar Young Investigators Award (www.bio. members (<0.33% of all members) are recognized for ri.ccf.org/Biometrics/dbyar.html), with $1,500 award- their contributions to the statistics profession. ed to a chosen student. Most competitions require a In addition to presentations, the JSM EXPO completed paper to be submitted prior to JSM. features more than 50 companies and organizations Finally, most meetings have a statistics-themed exhibiting their products and services. Many exhibi- trivia contest called Stat Bowl. Pre-registration is tors give away free items (e.g., candy, pens, etc.). required for a limited number of openings, and All of the major statistics textbook publishers and participants receive partial reimbursement for their software companies are there. Textbook publishers travel expenses. offer a sizable discount on their books during JSM,

26 amstat news may 2011 columns

and this discount is usually available for a limited After JSM time after JSM. Software companies sometimes give JSM ends in the early afternoon on a Thursday. away free trial editions of their programs. Don’t let what happens at JSM stay at JSM, though. The JSM Career Placement Service provides a The first thing I do after the meetings is prepare a way for job-seekers and employers to meet. This short review of my activities. Using notes I took dur- service offers an excellent way to interview with ing sessions, I summarize items from presentations many companies during a short time period. Pre- I want to examine further. I also summarize meet- registration is required, and the fee is discounted if ings I had with individuals about research or other you register before mid-July. The service works by important topics. Much of this review process starts providing an online message center for job-seekers at the airport while waiting for my return flight. and employers to indicate their interest in each If you give a presentation at JSM, you may other. Once a common interest is established, an submit a corresponding paper to be published in interview can be arranged during the meetings. the conference proceedings. Papers are not peer- Other activities at JSM include the following: reviewed in the same manner as for journals, but authors are encouraged to have others examine their • Shopping at the ASA Marketplace to pur- paper before submission. The proceedings are pub- chase a statistics-themed T-shirt or mug lished online around November, and authors retain the right to publish their research later in a peer- • Attending an organized roundtable discussion reviewed journal. n during breakfast or lunch about a topic of interest (pre-registration is required) • Using the free Internet access at the Cyber Center • Taking a little time off from JSM to go sightseeing

may 2011 amstat news 27 28 amstat news may 2011 meetings

Stat Bowl Hits the Beach at JSM 2011 Mike Anderson, The University of Texas at San Antonio ? !

Stat Bowl Questions Some Stat Bowl questions will test your knowledge to its limits; others are more in fun. Examples include the following:

? In high school, this famous 1 statistician should have been voted “Most Likely to Succeed.” Sponsors of the he ASA Stat Bowl will return to the Joint Stat Bowl include Statistical Meetings this year in Miami Bartlett’s test is the ratio of a the American Beach, Florida. weighted geometric mean to a Statistical TApplications to compete are available at http:// 2 weighted arithmetic mean. What Association, ENAR, jsmstatbowl.com. A maximum of 16 players will does it test? be allowed into the contest on a first-come, first- WNAR, Institute in basis. If the field of contestants fills to capacity, of Mathematical each university will be restricted to two players to Prior to its first annual meeting Statistics, ensure diversity. A waiting list will be established to in Boston, the ASA was known as Statistical Society fill unexpected vacancies should they occur at game 3 the (unfortunately abbreviated) of Canada, and Mu time. Inquiries about the bowl or completed appli- American Statistical Society. Sigma Rho. cations should be emailed to Michael Anderson at When was that first annual [email protected] with “Stat Bowl” in the meeting? subject line. The Stat Bowl is an individual competition; You can check out any time you teams from individual institutions are not needed like, but you can never leave. If to play. Team points are kept by university and a team championship is awarded, but having a team 4 the Hotel California were a state is not a requirement. in a Markov chain, what word As in previous years, Stat Bowl contestants will would describe it? receive up to $500 in travel reimbursement from the ASA, which helps draw statistics students from Answers are at the bottom of this page across the continent to have geeky fun and experi- ence JSM firsthand. The $500 is given to all partici- pants, regardless of their performance in the bowl. Note that this money cannot be used to reimburse

Career Placement Service costs. n

4 3 an absorbing state absorbing an ; 1840 February,

2 2 homogeneity of variance; variance; of homogeneity estimation; likelihood maximum

1 Ronald Fisher, inventor of of inventor Fisher, Ronald Questions: Bowl Stat to Answers

may 2011 amstat news 29 meetings

JSM 2011 Keynote Speakers

IMS Medallion Lecture I IMS Medallion Lecture II

Qi-Man Shao Jianqing Fan Hong Kong University of Princeton University Science and Technology “A Journey to Ultra-High “Stein’s Method” Dimensional Space” July 31, 4:00 p.m. August 1, 10:30 a.m.

Qi-Man Shao is a chair professor in the depart- Jianqing Fan is Frederick L. Moore Professor of ment of mathematics at the Hong Kong University Finance and director of the Committee of Statistical of Science and Technology. He earned a bachelor’s Studies at Princeton University. After earning his degree in mathematics and a master’s degree in prob- PhD from the University of California at Berkeley, ability/statistics from Hangzhou University and a he was appointed assistant, associate, and full profes- PhD in probability/statistics from the University of sor at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Science and Technology of China under the guid- Hill (1989–2003), professor at the University ance of Xiru Chen. He is a Fellow of IMS and was of California at Los Angeles (1997–2000), and an invited speaker at the International Congress of professor and chair at the Chinese University of Mathematicians in 2010. His primary research inter- Hong Kong (2000–2003). He is a past president ests include limit theory in probability; large sample of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and co- theory in statistics; self-normalized large deviation edited The Annals of Statistics, Probability Theory theory; high-dimensional and large-scale statistical and Related Fields, and Econometrical Journal. His analysis; Stein’s method for normal and non-normal work earned him the 2000 COPSS Presidents’ approximation; Gaussian random fields, random Award, 2007 Morningside Gold Medal of Applied polynomials, and matrices; and Monte Carlo stud- Mathematics, and Guggenheim Fellow in 2009. ies. He serves on the editorial boards of Annals of Applied Probability and Annals of Statistics.

ASA President’s Invited Address IMS Presidential Address

Sir David R. Cox Peter Hall Nuffield College, Oxford, The University of Melbourne United Kingdom and University of California, Davis “Statistical Analysis: Current Position and Future Prospects” August 1, 8:00 p.m. August 1, 4:00 p.m. Peter Hall was born in Sydney, Australia, and earned Sir David Cox studied mathematics at St. John’s his BSc degree from the University of Sydney in College, Cambridge and earned his PhD from the 1974. His MSc and DPhil degrees, both earned in University of Leeds in 1949. He was warden of 1976, are from the Australian National University Nuffield College and a member of the department and the University of Oxford. He taught at the of statistics at Oxford University when he retired in University of Melbourne before taking a position 1994. He has served as president of the Bernoulli at the Australian National University in 1978. In Society, Royal Statistical Society, and International November 2006, he moved back to the University Statistical Institute. From 1966 through 1991, he of Melbourne. His research interests span several was the editor of Biometrika and has written and topics in probability and statistics. coauthored numerous books and papers.

30 amstat news may 2011 meetings

IMS Wald Lecture Series: Random IMS Neyman Lecture Walks from Statistical Physics

Michael I. Jordan Gregory F. Lawler University of California, The University of Chicago Berkeley “Random Walks: Simple and Self- “Applied Bayesian Avoiding,” August 2, 4:00 p.m. Nonparametrics” “Two Dimensions and Conformal Invariance,” August 3, 2:00 p.m. August 1, 8:30 a.m. “What Do We Know About the Michael I. Jordan is the Pehong Chen Distinguished Schramm-Loewner Evolution?” Professor in the department of statistics and depart- August 4, 10:30 a.m. ment of electrical engineering and computer science Greg Lawler has been a professor of mathematics at the University of California, Berkeley. His research and statistics at The University of Chicago since in recent years has focused on Bayesian nonparamet- 2006, having previously held positions at Duke and ric analysis, probabilistic graphical models, and spec- Cornell universities. He earned his PhD in 1979 tral methods and applications to problems in signal from Princeton University under the direction of processing, computational biology, and natural lan- Edward Nelson. His research is in fine properties guage processing. Jordan was named to the National of random walk and Brownian motion, with an Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of emphasis on problems arising in statistical physics. Engineering in 2010. He is a Fellow of the American His books include Intersections of Random Walks, Association for the Advancement of Science, IMS, Introduction to Stochastic Processes, and Random ACM, IEEE, AAAI, and ASA. Walk: A Modern Introduction. He has served as edi- tor-in-chief of The Annals of Probability, is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and received IMS Medallion Lecture III the 2006 Pólya Prize from the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Sylvia Richardson Imperial College ASA Deming Lecture “Recent Developments in Bayesian Methods for Discovering Roger W. Hoerl Regression Structures: Applications GE Global Research in the Health Sciences” “The World Is Calling; Should We August 2, 10:30 a.m. Answer?” Sylvia Richardson has held the chair of biostatistics August 2, 4:00 p.m. in the department of epidemiology and biostatistics at Imperial College London since 2000 and heads Roger W. Hoerl is a longtime leader in GE’s the biostatistics group. After a first degree in math- renowned Six Sigma initiative. As manager of GE ematics, she earned a PhD in probability theory research and development’s applied statistics lab, he from the University of Nottingham and a Doctorat collaborates on research projects with GE businesses Es Sciences from the University of Paris XI. She held ranging from NBC and GE Capital to GE Aircraft lectureship positions at Warwick University and Engines and GE Power Systems. He has implement- the University of Paris V and subsequently became ed Six Sigma in a wide range of GE processes, from director of research in the French Research Institute corporate audit to delinquent credit card tracking. A for Medical Research. She was awarded the Guy Fellow of both the American Statistical Association Medal in Silver from the Royal Statistical Society in and the American Society for Quality (ASQ), he 2009 and currently holds a Royal Society Wolfson won ASQ’s 2001 Brumbaugh Award for the pub- Research Merit Award for her work on Bayesian lished paper with the greatest impact on industrial integrative analysis in epidemiology, systems biol- quality control applications. Hoerl has coauthored ogy, and genomics. several books with Ronald Snee, including Statistical Thinking: Improving Business Performance.

may 2011 amstat news 31 meetings

ASA Presidential Address IMS Medallion Lecture V

Nancy L. Geller Chris Holmes Office of Biostat Research University of Oxford “Statistics: An All-Encompassing “Loss, Actions, Decisions: Bayesian Discipline” Analysis in High-Throughput Genomics” August 2, 8:00 p.m. August 3, 10:30 a.m.

ASA President Nancy Geller is the director of the Chris Holmes is professor of biostatistics in the Office of Biostatistics Research in the National department of statistics at the University of Oxford, Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute at the National where he also holds joint affiliations with the Institutes of Health. A Fellow of the ASA, Geller Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics and is a former chair of the Committee on Women in the Oxford-Man Institute. He earned his PhD in Statistics and Elizabeth Scott Award Committee. She statistics from the department of mathematics at is a former president of the International Society for Imperial College London in 2000 and subsequent- Clinical Biostatistics and has authored or coauthored ly held positions in the department as a postdoc- many statistical and medical articles. She spent a year toral researcher and lecturer. In 2004, he moved to as an American Cancer Society scholar at the Royal Oxford. He currently holds a program leader’s award Free Hospital School of Medicine and also served in statistical genomics from the Medical Research as acting head of biostatistics at Memorial Sloan- Council (MRC), United Kingdom, and serves on Kettering Cancer Center. the MRC Molecular and Cellular Medicine Board. He received the Research Prize from the Royal Statistical Society in 2003 and the Guy Medal in IMS Medallion Lecture IV Bronze in 2009. He is an inaugural associate editor for the Annals of Applied Statistics. Michael A. Newton University of Wisconsin– Madison “Connecting Experimental COPSS Fisher Lecture Data on Genes with Functional Information” Jeff Wu

August 3, 8:30 a.m. “Post-Fisherian Experimentation: Michael Newton is professor in the department of From Physical to Virtual” statistics and the department of biostatistics and August 3, 4:00 p.m. medical informatics at the University of Wisconsin- Madison, where he has worked since earning his PhD in statistics from the University of Washington Jeff Wu’s research contributions span the full range in 1991. His work is highly cited, especially that of statistics, from theory to application, and touch on model-based inference in statistical genomics. many applied domains, from sample surveys to nano- He enjoys the process by which organized statisti- technology. They are notable for their combination cal inference emerges from the chaotic interplay of of novelty, technical strength, and far-reaching ideas, data, and contextual issues in experimental vision. He has made especially significant contribu- science and thus devotes much of his time to inter- tions to experimental design. As one of his support- disciplinary research. He was the founding biologi- ers wrote, “In view of Professor Wu’s contribution cal sciences editor at the Annals of Applied Statistics. to design of experiments, it is particularly fitting for In addition to his research program, he runs a train- him to deliver a lecture that honors R. A. Fisher, ing program in biostatistics. commonly regarded as father of the modern theory of experimental design.” To read more about Wu, visit http://magazine.amstat.org/blog/2011/05/01/ fisher-lecture.

32 amstat news may 2011 REGISTRATIONFORM 2011 FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Sponsored by the ASA Biopharmaceutical Section with cooperation from the FDA Statistical Association September 19–21, 2011 • Marriott Wardman Park—Washington, DC INSTRUCTIONS 1. Print or type all information and retain a copy for your records. 2. Use a separate form for each registrant. 3. Mail form with payment to FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Registration, 732 N. Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314. Fax form (credit card payment only) to (703) 684-2037. www.amstat.org/ 4. Registration form must be received by August 25, 2011, to be processed at the reduced rate. meetings/fdaworkshop Forms Received Without Payment Will Not Be Processed.

ATTENDEE INFORMATION MEAL PREFERENCE Lunch on Tuesday, September 20, is included with your workshop registration. Please indicate the table number (see back of form) for your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices. ASA ID # (if known) 1st____ 2nd____ 3rd____ ❑ Lunch only ❑ Not attending lunch

Name Select one of the following menu options: ❑ Regular ❑ Vegetarian Preferred Name for Badge

REGISTRATION FEES Workshop Fee (required) Organization By August 26– August 25 September 12 Address ❑ Registrant $270 $295 $______❑ Academic (nonstudent) $230 $255 $______❑ Biopharm Section Member $230 $255 $______❑ Government Employee $130 $155 $______❑ Student $130 $155 $______

City State/Province ZIP/Postal Code Short Courses—Monday, September 19 Add-ons to Workshop Fee: $100 each before Aug. 25; $105 each August 26–September 12 Country (non-U.S.) 8:30 a.m.–12:00 p.m. ❑ SC1: Statistical Issues in Drug Development—Stephen Senn $______Phone ❑ SC2: Group Sequential and Adaptive Clinical Trial Design— Scott Emerson $______❑ SC3: Study Design for Biomarker Development and Validation— Email Gene Pennello, Sumithra Mandrekar, Juergen von Frese $______

In case of emergency, list the name and phone number of the 1:30 p.m.–5:00 p.m. person we should contact (remains confidential). ❑ SC4: Monte Carlo Simulation for the Pharmaceutical Industry: Concepts, Algorithms, and Case Studies— Emergency Contact’s Name ______Mark Chang, Sandeep Menon $______❑ SC5: Key Multiplicity Problems in Clinical Trials— Telephone Number ______Alex Dmitrenko $______❑ SC6: Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials— ❑ Check here if you would like your ASA customer contact Scott Berry, Bradley P. Carlin $______information updated with your meeting contact information. TOTAL FEES: $______This meeting is ADA accessible. PAYMENT ❑ Please check here if you need special services due ❑ to a disability or have food allergies/restrictions Check/money order payable to the American Statistical Association and attach a statement regarding your needs. (in U.S. dollars on U.S. bank) Credit Card ❑ VISA ❑ MasterCard ❑ American Express CANCELLATION POLICY Cancellations received by August 25, 2011, will be refunded, less a $25 pro- Card Number cessing fee and less a $10 processing fee for each short course. Cancellations received by September 12, 2011, will be refunded, less a $50 processing fee and less a $15 processing fee for each short course. Requests for refunds received Exp. Date CVS# (3- digit number on back of card) after September 12 will not be honored. All cancellations must be made in writ- ing to [email protected], via fax to (703) 684-2037, or mailed to FDA/Industry Name of Cardholder Statistics Workshop Registration, 732 N. Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314. *Purchase orders will not be accepted. No exceptions. ASA Federal ID #53-0204661 Authorizing Signature FDA Industry Statistics Workshop Roundtable Luncheon Topics Tuesday, September 20

Adaptive Design TL22: “IRB and DSMC: Who Is Responsible for What?” Charles TL43: “Are Global Tests a Practical Option for Regulatory Anello, Applied Statistical Concepts, LLC Clinical Trials?” Pablo Bonangelino, FDA/CDRH/OSB/ TL01: “Logistics and Implementation of Adaptive Trial Design” DBS Eva Miller, ICON Clinical Research TL23: “Continuous Safety Monitoring for Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials with Blinded Treatment TL44: “Predictions in Clinical Trials” Gui-shuang Ying, TL02: “Adaptive Design - Experiences from Clincial Trials” Min Information” Greg Ball, Astellas University of Pennsylvania Yao, Covance TL45: “Longitudinal ANCOVA vs. Constrained Longitudinal TL03: “Adaptive Design’s Past, Current, and Future” Xiaoyin Futility Data Analysis Model” Xiaoming Li, Merck Research (Frank) Fan, Vertex Pharmaceutical TL24: “Futility Analysis and Conditional Power: Common Laboratories; Jiajun Liu, Merck Research Laboratories TL04: “Adaptive Design Execution: Being GCP Compliant” Philip Practice in Clinical Trials” Li-an Xu, Bristol-Myers Squibb TL46: “Working Together to Achieve the Promise of Lavin, Aptiv Solutions (formerly Averion Intl Corp) TL25: “Sample Size Re-estimation and Futility Analysis Based Personalized Medicine” Kathleen Wyrwich, United TL05: “Adaptive Design Trials for Preventive Vaccines” Amelia on Blinded Assessment of Interim Data” Wei Li, Daiichi BioSource Corporation; Donald Stull, United BioSource Horne, FDA Sankyo, Inc.; Jie (Jack) Zhou, FDA CDRH Corporation TL47: “Handling Protocol Violations … Do You Use Gloves?” Biomarkers Methodology (Efficacy) Daniel Cotton, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. TL06: “Biomarker Development, Validation Standards, and TL26: “Advance Methodologies and Available Software (SAS) TL48: “Practical Challenges Arising from Study Assumption Reproducible Biomedical Research” Maha Karnoub, in Analyzing Overdispersed Count Data” Santosh Deviations” Lori Davis, i3 Statprobe Pfizer Sutradhar, Pfizer Inc. TL49: “Evidence-Based Medicine: The Issues/Limitations in TL27: “Multiplicity Adjustments for Testing Endpoints in Clinical Determining Standard of Care” Arlene Swern, Celgene Collaboration Trials - A Check-Up on Current Practice” Davis Gates, Corporation TL07: “Cross Pharma Initiatives” Herbert Thijs, Hasselt Merck University - I-Biostat TL28: “Super-Superiority Trial with the Consideration of Clinical Noninferiority TL08: “Industry Standards for Analysis and Reporting” Mary Significance” Shiling Ruan, FDA/CDRH TL50: “The Stochastic Curtailment and Its Visualization For Nilsson, Eli Lilly & Company; Wei Wang, Eli Lilly and TL29: “Methods for Handling Composite Endpoints: Advantages Noninferiority Case vs. Superiority Case” Shaoyi Li, ASA Company and Disadvantages” Selene Leon Reyes, Cardiovascular Member TL09: “Biostatistics in Academia versus Industry” Christine Research Foundation; Stuart Pocock, London School of TL51: “Margin Selection in Noninferiority Trials” Chul Ahn, FDA Blasey, Stanford University, Corcept Therapeutics Hygiene and Tropical Medicine TL52: “Some Practical Issues on Designing Noninferiority Trial” TL10: “Statistical Programmer and Statistician - Are These Roles TL30: “How to Define the Minimum Clinically Important Xia Xu, Merck Research Laboratories Interchangeable?” Nfii Ndikintum, i3Statprobe Difference for a Clinical Trial” Amy Ko, Merck & Co., Inc. TL53: “Statistical Issues in Designing NonInferiority Studies TL31: “Unique Statistical Considerations in Alzheimer's Disease with an Emphasis on Veterinary Medical Issues” Anna Comparative Effectiveness Studies: Delayed Start, Biomarkers, and More.” Hong Nevius, FDA/CVM Liu-Seifert, Eli Lilly and Company TL11: “Head-to-Head Studies: Comparing Risks/Benefits or Risking a Comparison?” CV Damaraju, J&J PRD, LLC TL32: “MMRM vs. ANCOVA for FDA vs. EMA” Kisook Yoo, Roche Safety TL12: “Value of Medicine - How Can Industry & Regulators Help TL33: “Empirical Bayes Methods in Drug Dosage TL54: “Safety Evaluation: When, What, How?” Aloka in Assessing the Value to a Payer” Amit Bhattacharyya, Individualization Based on Linear Models” Francisco Chakravarty, U.S. FDA GlaxoSmithKline Diaz, The University of Kansas Medical Center TL55: “Benefit and Risk Assessments in Comparison of TL13: “How to Meet the Needs for High-Quality Health Outcome TL34: “Repeated-Measures Mixed Model Building” Changsheng Anticoagulants” Susan Wang, Boehringer-Ingelheim (HO) or Patient-Reported Outcome (PRO) Data in Lao, FDA/CDRH Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; James Hung, FDA Oncology Trials?” Dachuang Cao, Eli Lilly and Company TL35: “Regulatory Impact and Issues of Joint Modeling of TL56: “Program Safety Analysis Plan and Safety Reporting Longitudinal and Time-to-Event” Ping Wang, Eli Lilly Rules” Wei Wang, Eli Lilly and Company; Mary Nilsson, Devices/Diagnostics and Company; Wei Shen, Eli Lilly and Company Eli Lilly and Company TL14: “Statistical Issues in Companion Diagnostics” Yuying TL36: “Multi-Regional Trials: Design, Analysis, and TL57: “Small Event Rates, Big Outcome Studies” Jennifer Jin and Rong Tang, U.S. Food and Drug Administration Interpretation” Susan Huyck, Merck Research Hamer-Maansson, AstraZeneca (FDA) Laboratories TL58: “Strategic Issues in Meeting Cardiovascular Risk TL15: “Statistical Design and Analysis Challenges for TL37: “Blinding Assessment in Randomized Clinical Trial” Ying Assessment Requirements for Diabetes Drug Monitoring Devices” Shanti Gomatam, FDA/CDRH/DBS Yang, FDA Development” Shailaja Suryawanshi, Merck & Co., Inc. TL16: “Improving Communications Between FDA, Sponsor, and TL38: “Decision Analysis in the Development of Medical Advisory Panel” Gary Kamer, FDA/CDRH/OSB/DBS Products” Bruce Binkowitz, Merck, Sharpe, and Dohme; Study Design TL17: “Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests/Devices with Imperfect Caiyan Li, FDA/CDRH/OSB TL59: “Design and Analysis of Non-Interventional/ Reference Standard” Bipasa Biswas, FDA TL39: “Missing Data: Alternatives to Imputation” William Observational Clinical Trials” Shankar Srinivasan, Merck TL18: “Analytical Studies in In Vitro Diagnostics” Yuqun Luo, Archambault, Virtu Stat, Ltd.; Bob Abugov, FDA TL60: “High Placebo Response - Recent Trend in Psychiatric FDA\CBER TL40: “Clinical Experiment and Statistical Challenges to Clinical Trials, Design, and Analysis” Yeh-Fong Chen, U.S. Food and Drug Administration; Lu Zhang, Eli Lilly TL19: “Sensitivity/Specificity with an Inadequate Truth” Hope Analyze and Report Composite Endpoints” Tianhui and Company Knuckles, Abbott Zhou, Pfizer TL41: “Beyond RECIST: Enhancing the Clinical Relevance of TL61: “Some Design Issues in Biologic Product Applications” DSMC/DSMB Progression-Free Survival in Oncology” James Love, Shiowjen Lee, FDA\CBER\OBE\DB Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals TL20: “Safety Monitoring of Events of Interest in Placebo- TL62: “Oncology Phase I Clinical Trial Designs: Can Current Controlled Clinical Trials” Elena Polverejan, Johnson & TL42: “Bayesian Nonparametrics: Potentially Useful or a Approaches Be Improved to Increase Efficiency Johnson and Bradley McEvoy, CDER/FDA Playground for Mathematicians?” Steven Thomson, U.S. and Effectiveness?” Serap Sankoh, Millennium Food and Drug Administration Pharmaceuticals: The Takeda Oncolgy Company TL21: “Practical Issues While Conducting a Clinical Trial DSMB” Mohammad Bsharat, Vertex Pharmaceuticals

For additional information, please visit www.amstat.org/meetings/fdaworkshop. awards and deadlines

William G. Hunter Award Janet Norwood Award Nominations for the American The section on statistical genetics Society for Quality’s William G. and the department of biostatis- Hunter Award are due July 15. tics in the school of public health The award will be presented at the at the University of Alabama at 2011 Fall Technical Conference. Birmingham request nomina- William G. Hunter was tions for the tenth annual Janet L. the first chair of the Statistics Norwood Award for Outstanding Division of the American Society Achievement by a Woman in the for Quality Control (now Statistical Sciences. American Society for Quality). The award recipient will His leadership as a communica- deliver a lecture on September tor, consultant, educator, and 14 at the UAB award ceremony innovator and his ability to inte- and receive travel expenses and a grate statistical thinking into $5,000 prize. many disciplines serve as exem- Eligible individuals are women plary models for statisticians and who have completed their termi- researchers everywhere. nal degree and made extraordi- The award was established nary contributions to the statis- in 1987 to encourage and pro- tical sciences. They also should mote outstanding accomplish- have an outstanding record of ments during a career in applied service to the statistical sciences, statistics and to recognize an with an emphasis on both their implementer who has achieved own scholarship and teaching results. Any outstanding leader in and leadership of the field in gen- the field of applied statistics, eral and of women in particular. regardless of ASQ Statistics If selected, the winner should be Division membership status, is willing to deliver a lecture at the 9th International Conference qualified. Candidates must have award ceremony. on Health Policy Statistics demonstrated a high level of pro- Nominations should include Cleveland, Ohio fessionalism, provided significant a full curriculum vitae accom- contributions to the field, and panied by a letter of no more October 5–7 built a history of inspirational than two pages describing the leadership and application. A per- nature of the candidate’s contri- Focusing on advancing methods to improve son may be nominated many times, butions. Contributions may be health care through various studies and the but win the award only once. in development and evaluation The nominator must have the of statistical methods, teach- quantitative analysis of data, ICHPS offers: permission of the person being ing of statistics, application of nominated and letters from at statistics, or any other activity • Invited and contributed sessions least two other people support- that can arguably be said to ing the nomination. Claims of have advanced the field of sta- • Workshops intended to provide accomplishments must be sup- tistical science. Self-nominations research training and career devel- ported with objective evidence are acceptable. opment in the methods, resources, (e.g., publication lists and letters Send nominations by June and applications at the forefront of from peers). 24 to David B. Allison, distin- For award criteria and nomi- guished professor and head of contemporary health policy research nation forms, visit www.asqstatdiv. the section on statistical genetics, org/awards.htm or contact Daksha [email protected]. The winner Chokshi at (561) 796-8373 or will be announced July 1. See www.amstat.org/meetings/ n [email protected]. For details about the ichps/2011 for details. award, visit the UAB web- site at www.soph.uab.edu/ssg/ Organized by the Health Policy Statistics Section of the norwoodaward/aboutaward. n American Statistical Association

may 2011 amstat news 35 people news

Joseph Glaz, professor and Obituaries associate head of the department of statistics at the University of Richard Pierre Claude Connecticut and Fellow of the Richard Pierre Claude, who died on March 17, was an ASA, was recently elected to the early advocate of the sound use of statistics in the human Connecticut Academy of Arts rights field, dedicating his career to integrating human and Sciences. n rights with the practice of science. In 1992, he co-edited the book Human Rights and ASA member Mike Kutner Statistics: Getting the Record Straight, which was an expan- was recently awarded the 2011 sion of a special issue of Human Rights Quarterly, of which Charles R. Hatcher Jr. M.D. he was a founding editor. These two publications are wide- Award for Excellence in Public ly credited with having established the field of statistical Health. The award honors fac- inference in human rights monitoring. He remained active ulty from Emory’s Woodruff throughout his life in promoting the use of sound scientific Health Sciences Center who methods in human rights work. have demonstrated excellence in Claude was professor emeritus of government and poli- public health. tics at the University of Maryland, College Park, where he In 2004, Kutner was named taught political science courses. He was the author of many Emory’s Rollins professor and books, including Science in the Service of Human Rights. chair of the department of A special event to honor Claude was held in 2009 biostatistics and bioinformat- by the AAAS Science and Human Rights Program. On ics, where he served until 2009. that occasion, Claude identified three themes influencing He is now the biostatistics core his career: “First, the efficacy of human rights activism director for the Center for AIDS broadly defined; second, the importance of multidis- Research. Kutner has been a ciplinary approaches to human rights problemsolving; faculty member at Virginia and finally, the need for human rights education for all, Tech, Texas A&M University, including students of science, medicine, engineering, The College of William and and technology.” Mary, and Cleveland Clinic He was the father of Eric Claude, Christina Claude- Foundation. He is known for Paras, and Gregor Claude and brother of Charles coauthoring Applied Linear Claude, Rose-Marie Pettit, and Christopher Claude. Statistical Models and Applied He also is survived by six grandchildren. Linear Regression Models. n In lieu of flowers, contributions may be made to the Pader Girl’s Academy of Northern Uganda, sponsored by the Uganda Fund, at www.ugandafund.org. (See the “Donate in honor of Richard Pierre Claude” button.) Alternatively, donations may be made to the Back Packer Health Worker Team, Thai-Burma Border, Make sure you visit sponsored by the Global Health Access Program, at the Statisticians in the www.ghap.org. Indicate “Back Pack Help Worker News page online at Team” on contributions. www.amstat.org/about/ statisticiansinthenews. cfm to read about your Wallace Oliver colleagues and friends in Wallace B. Oliver, 86, a statistician at the Federal the statistical community. Emergency Management Agency, died March 18. He was a statistician for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Army Department, and the U.S. Census Bureau. Oliver is survived by his wife of 62 years, Helene Kause Oliver, and his two daughters.

36 amstat news may 2011 sections • chapters • committees

sectionnews

Biometrics Health Policy Statistics The Biometrics Section will sponsor two short The Health Policy Statistics Section is sponsor- courses during JSM 2011 in Miami Beach, Florida. ing “Evolutionary Personalized Medicine,” a sym- The first, Generalized Linear Mixed Models, will posium that will take place August 3 from 8:30 be on approaches to modeling, methods of esti- a.m. to 10:20 a.m. during JSM 2011 in Miami mation and inference, and available software. Beach, Florida. The symposium will include a The second short course, Semiparametric Theory panel, “Personalized Medicine and Convergence: and Missing Data, will introduce the theory and Prospects for Statisticians.” This is a follow-up methods for semiparametric models assuming there to the February symposium that took place at are no missing data. The afternoon session will focus the American Association for the Advancement on how to extend ideas developed in the morning to of Science meeting in Washington, DC. For missing data problems and show how this leads to more information, visit http://magazine.amstat. augmented inverse probability–weighted complete- org/?cat=17. case estimators. To view the JSM 2011 online pro- gram or register for these courses, visit www.amstat. org/jsmregistration. Quality and Productivity The section also needs ideas for JSM 2012 If you’re looking for something to do during JSM invited sessions, to take place July 28 to August 2011 in Miami Beach, Florida, the Quality and 2 in San Diego, California. Ideas can be emailed Productivity Section invites you to one invited to JSM 2011 program chair, Tianxi Cai, at tcai@ paper session, three topic-contributed panel ses- hsph.harvard.edu. Submit ideas for short cours- sions, and five roundtables. es to continuing education chair, Annie Qu, at During the section’s invited session, four speak- anniequ@illinois.edu. ers will share their knowledge and experience with Invited session ideas also are welcome for the health care in “Quality Issues in Health Care.” ENAR 2012 meeting, to take place April 1–4 in The three topic-contributed panel sessions Washington, DC. Send your ideas to ENAR 2011 include the "Q&P Student Competition Winning program chair, Jason Fine, at [email protected]. Results—An Application of Statistical Engineering Additionally, Biometrics Section members are Using WatFactory for Quality Improvement." invited to write short papers for the Here’s to Your The students will present their results for opti- Health column in CHANCE magazine. If inter- mizing the WatFactory process. The other two ested, email the column editor, Mark Glickman, topic-contributed panel sessions are “Optimal at [email protected]. Design of Experiments for Multiple Objectives” For detailed section news, visit http://magazine. and “In Over Our Heads? Demystifying Complex amstat.org/?cat=17. Problems with Statistical Engineering.” The section roundtables provide an opportunity for discussing relevant statistical topics while enjoy- ing a meal with colleagues. Willis Jensen will lead To view section news in its entirety, visit “Effective Statistical Training in Industry.” Alyson http://magazine.amstat.org. Wilson, along with other participants, will discuss practical issues related to Bayesian reliability. Stefan Steiner will guide a discussion about how to add excitement to the necessary task of measurement system assessment. Daksha Chokshi will explore lessons learned from successful manufacturing

may 2011 amstat news 37 sections • chapters • committees

and Six Sigma design applications in “Quality For details about section activities during JSM Excellence in Design and Manufacturing: A 2011, visit http://magazine.amstat.org/?cat=17. To Roadmap to Customer Delight.” And Jennifer register for JSM 2011 or view the program, visit Van Mullekom will help participants answer the www.amstat.org/jsmregistration. question, “What Is a Statistical Engineer, and Do I Want to Be One?” Statistics and the Environment The ASA Section on Statistics and the Environment (ENVR) congratulates this year’s student paper competition winners. Matthias Katzfuss from The Ohio State University won first place for his paper, “Bayesian Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Smoothing for Massive Data Sets.” Ephraim Hanks from Colorado State University received nDemand an honorable mention for his paper, “Velocity- Based Movement Modeling for Individual- and The ASA’s Popular Web-Based Population-Level Inference.” ENVR also is sponsoring several invited ses- Learning Program Is Now Available sions and two roundtables at JSM 2011, to take place July 30 to August 4 in Miami Beach, Florida. Anytime, Anywhere Make sure to join the section for its annual open business meeting/mixer, too. For details about the sessions, roundtables, or business meeting and mixer, visit the JSM online program at http:// Enjoy previously recorded web-based lectures www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011. on an on-demand, pay-per-view basis. The section also requests topics for JSM 2012 Each two-hour webinar features top statisti- invited sessions. Submit ideas by email to ENVR cians discussing their specialties. program chair, Devin Johnson, at devin.johnson@ noaa.gov. Available topics include: For detailed section news, visit http://magazine. amstat.org/?cat=17. Bayesian clinical trials Stratified analysis Survey Research Methods Survey research methods The ASA Survey Research Methods Section (SRMS) is sponsoring four P.M. Roundtables at JSM 2011 in Miami Beach, Florida. The round- tables include “The General Social Survey (GSS) and the Methodology for Studying Societal Change,” led by Tom W. Smith; “Measurement Error in Survey Paradata,” led by Brady T. West; “Survey Quality Indicator Measures: Response Rates and Alternatives,” led by Donsig Jang; and “Research at the U.S. Census Bureau,” led by Daniel Weinberg. Roundtables are limited to 10 attendees, so register early to reserve a spot. For details, visit http://magazine.amstat. Please visit www.amstat.org/learnstatondemand for org/?cat=17. To register for JSM 2011 or view the online program, visit www.amstat.org/ the full catalog and to register. jsmregistration. n

38 amstat news may 2011 calendar of events

June 4–8—Summer School on The following events are the latest additions to Social Determinants of Health, the ASA’s online calendar of events. Announce- 3–4—Statistical, Computational, London, United Kingdom and Visualization Methods in ments are accepted from education and not-for- Medical Informatics Conference, For information, visit www.ucl. profit organizations only. To view the complete list Dubuque, Iowa ac.uk/iish or contact Catherine of statistics meetings and workshops, visit www. Conroy, Dept. of Epidemiology, amstat.org/dateline. For information, visit www.clarke.edu/ 1-19 Torrington Place, London, scvmmi or contact Karin Dorman, International WC1E 6BT, United * Indicates events sponsored by the ASA or one of Department of Statistics, Ames, IA Kingdom; +44 20 76791680, its sections, chapters, or committees 50011; [email protected]. [email protected].

*5–8—Southern Regional 7–15—2011 Industrial Math/ Council on Statistics Summer August Stat Modeling Workshop for Research Conference, Graduate Students, Raleigh, 29–31—SAMSI 2011–2012 McCormick, South Carolina Uncertainty Quantification North Carolina For details, visit www.stat.sc.edu/ Program: Climate Modeling For information, visit http://tinyurl. srcos2011 or contact Don Edwards, Opening Workshop, Pleasanton, com/3mla7md or contact Jamie California Dept. of Statistics, University of Nunnelly, 19 TW Alexander Dr., P.O. For details, visit http://tinyurl. South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208; Box 14006, RTP, NC 27709; (919) 685- com/6yujwfr or contact Jamie (803) 777-7800; [email protected]. 9350; [email protected]. Nunnelly, 19 TW Alexander Dr., P.O. Box 14006, RTP, NC 27709; (919) *11–15—The 2011 International 13–15—2nd Annual PaSiPHIC 685-9350; [email protected]. Workshop on Objective Bayes - Narrowing the Distribution Methodology, Shanghai, China Between Stochastic Scientists For information, visit www.sfs. by Bringing Statisticians and September ecnu.edu.cn/obayes2011/index. Pharmacometricians Together, *19–21—2011 FDA/ html or contact Dongchu Sun, 500 San Luis Obispo, California Industry Statistics Workshop, Dongchuan Road, Minhang District, For details, visit www.pasiphic. Washington, DC Shanghai, International 200241, calpoly.edu or contact Brian Smith, For more information, visit www. China; [email protected]. 1 Amgen Center Dr., MS 38-3-B, amstat.org/meetings/fdaworkshop Thousand Oaks, CA 91320; (805) or contact Cheryl Behrens, 732 20–24—ABS11 - 2011 Applied 447-1378; [email protected]. N. Washington St., Alexandria, VA To view Bayesian Statistics School 22314; (703) 684-1221; cheryl@ the entire list Hierarchical Modeling for 18–21—8th International amstat.org. Environmental Processes, Conference on Forensic of statistics Bolzano/Bozen, Italy Inference and Statistics, Seattle, 21–23—SAMSI 2011–2012 meetings and For details, visit www.mi.imati.cnr. Washington Uncertainty Quantification workshops, visit it/conferences/abs11.html or con- For information, visit www.icfis2011. Program: Geosciences www.amstat. org or contact Bruce Weir, Campus Applications Opening tact Fabrizio Ruggeri, Via Bassini org/dateline. 15, Milano, International 20133, Box 357232, Seattle, WA 98195- Workshop, Research Triangle Italy; +39 0223699532; fabrizio@ 7232; (206) 221-7947; bsweir@u. Park, North Carolina mi.imati.cnr.it. washington.edu. For details, visit http://tinyurl. com/3l573yq or contact Jamie 27–31—Conference on Nunnelly, 19 TW Alexander Dr., P.O. July Modeling High-Frequency Box 14006, RTP, NC 27709; (919) Data in Finance 3, Hoboken, 685-9350; [email protected]. 4–5—Patient-Reported New Jersey Outcomes and Quality of Life, *24—New England Symposium Paris, France For information, visit kolmogorov. math.stevens.edu/conference2011 on Statistics in Sports, For information, visit www.lsta. Cambridge, Massachusetts or contact Ionut Florescu, Castle upmc.fr/mesbah/PROQOL or con- For information, visit www.amstat. Point on the Hudson, Hoboken, tact Mounir Mesbah, LSTA, 4, place org/chapters/boston/nessis11.html or NJ 07030; (201) 216-5452; ifloresc@ Jussieu, Paris, International F75005, contact Mark Glickman, EN Rogers stevens.edu. France; +33144278580; mounir. Memorial Hospital, 200 Springs Road [email protected]. (152), Bedford, MA 01730; (781) 687- 2875; [email protected]. n

may 2011 amstat news 39 professional opportunities

Professional Opportunity listings may not exceed 65 words, plus equal opportu- nity information. The deadline for their receipt is the 20th of the month two months prior to when the ad is to be published (e.g., May 20 for the July issue). Ads will be published in the next available issue following receipt. California Listings are shown alphabetically by state, followed by international listings. n Experienced research programmer Vacancy listings may include the institutional name and address or be identified with background in SAS programming by number, as desired. and database management. Work closely Professional Opportunities vacancies also will be published on the ASA’s web- w/policy research staff in creating com- site (www.amstat.org). Vacancy listings will appear on the website for the entire plex data files. Must be highly motivated, calendar month. Ads may not be placed for publication in the magazine only; all self-starter, solve data analysis problems ads will be published both electronically and in print. independently; BA/BS required; MA/MS Rates: $320 for nonprofit organizations (with proof of nonprofit status), $475 preferred; 2–5 years of experience in SAS for all others. Member discounts are not given. For display and online advertising database and statistical programming; rates, go to www.amstat.org/ads. strong analytical and communication Listings will be invoiced following publication. All payments should be made skills and exceptional problemsolving to the American Statistical Association. All material should be sent to Amstat abilities; knowledge of LINUX and/or News, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314-1943; fax (703) 684- Windows; Apply at www.rand.org/jobs 2036; email [email protected]. (Job ID# 2825). EOE. Employers are expected to acknowledge all responses resulting from publica- tion of their ads. Personnel advertising is accepted with the understanding that the advertiser does not discriminate among applicants on the basis of race, sex, Colorado religion, age, color, national origin, handicap, or sexual orientation. n Professor/associate professor and Also, look for job ads on the ASA website at www.amstat.org/jobweb. director. Colorado School of Public Health-University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus. The depart- ment of biostatistics and informatics and the University of Colorado Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute (CCTSI) invite applications for a senior, tenure-track faculty position to direct the Colorado Biostatistics Consortium (http://cbc.ucdenver.edu) in the depart- ment at the Anschutz Medical Campus. Learn more and apply at www.jobsatcu. com posting # 812974. EOE.

n Assistant Professor. University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Colorado School of Public Health (CSPH). The department of biostatis- tics and informatics has an opening for a permanent full-time tenure-eligible assistant professor. The position will require original research in biostatistical methodology; teaching in the biostatis- tics MS, PhD, and/or MPH programs; and collaborative research. Learn more and apply at www.jobsatcu.com posting #812973. EOE.

40 amstat news may 2011 Advertisement in Professional Journal UNIVERSITY OF PUERTO RICO RIO PIEDRAS CAMPUS Looking for a SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

The Institute of Statistics and Information Systems, part of the College of Business Administration at the University of Puerto Rico, Río Piedras Campus, invites applications for a tenure track position at the JOB? Assistant Professor level. A Ph.D. in Computer and Information Sciences and Engineering, Statistics, or a closely related fi eld with substantial coursework in Statistics is required, preferably in Business related areas, including Information Systems. The applicant is expected to be Academically Qualifi ed by AACSB accreditation standards. Let the ASA help you realize Ideal applicants should have demonstrated research abilities, preferably on interdisciplinary research in your professional goals. Business areas including Information Systems. Incumbents are expected to teach undergraduate courses including Introductory Business Statistics as well as elementary Quantitative Methods or Computer JobWeb—The ASA JobWeb is a targeted Information Systems. job database and résumé-posting service www.amstat.org/jobweb The incumbent will engage in scholarly activities related to advancing statistical knowledge and/or its applications; develop activities related to improving instruction; as well as advising and mentoring JSM Career Placement Service— undergraduate students, participate in curriculum revision and enhancement, seek funding for the A full-service recruiting facility held research and teaching programs, supervise undergraduate research and creative work, and engage in annually at JSM, with hundreds of statistical employers seeking qualifi ed applicants professional development activities related to research, teaching and advising. www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm Applicants are requested to send a letter of application, curriculum vitae, graduate transcripts, and three Amstat News—The ASA’s monthly reference letters by June 15, 2011 to the following address: membership magazine, which features notices of employment opportunities in each issue Dr. Paul R. Latortue Dean School of Business Administration PO Box 23332 San Juan, PR 00931-3332 or to: [email protected]; [email protected] Promoting the Practice and Profession of Statistics

Equal Opportunity Employer Rev. 21/03/2011

may 2011 amstat news 41 Doing Well By Doing Good®

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42 amstat news may 2011 Florida n Tenure-track assistant professor, biosta- tistics, University of South Florida, epi- demiology and biostatistics department. Duties include developing a successful research program, providing research sup- port within USF Health, teaching gradu- ate and undergraduates courses in bio- statistics, advising master's and doctoral students. PhD in biostatistics, statistics, or related field required. Competitive salary, excellent benefits. To apply, visit http:// employment.usf.edu. Access the “Faculty” section and search for position number 15628. University of South Florida is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity/ Equal Access institution.

Massachusetts n John Ware Research Group, Inc., leader in health outcomes research, seeks research scientists who will collaborate w/leading teams of international psycho- metricians on analysis, publications, and presentations. The research scientist will work on current health-related quality- of-life (HRQoL) research projects and take the lead on planning and complet- ing psychometric analyses using software that supports classical and modern psychometric evaluation methods. Send CVs to [email protected]. EEO.

n The department of public health and community medicine of the Tufts University School of Medicine seeks a full-time statistician/ biostatistician. Requirements: PhD in statistics, biosta- tistics, or equivalent; interest in teaching and collaborative research. Curriculum vitae and cover letter with names and emails of three professional referees may be submitted by mail or electronically to Dr. Janet Forrester, 136 Harrison Ave., Boston, MA 02111; janet.forrester@tufts. edu. EOE.

may 2011 amstat news 43 Faculty Position in the Collaborative Studies Coordinating Center Department Of Biostatistics

e Collaborative Studies Coordinating Center (CSCC) in the Department of Biostatistics at e University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is seeking applications for a Research Track faculty position beginning in Fall, 2011. e faculty appointment will be in Biostatistics in UNC’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. Applicants are sought at the Research Assistant, Research Associate, or Research Professor levels. A doctoral degree in Statistics, Biostatistics, or equivalent is required. Applicants should have broad research and teaching interests, the potential to direct multi-center clinical trials and epidemiological studies, and the ability to engage in collaborative REGISTRATION research with investigators at UNC-CH and other universities and research centers. Preference IS NOW will be given to candidates with at least fi ve years of experience directing applied research projects in an academic setting. Founded in 1971, the CSCC is the longest-running, NIH-funded Coordinating Center with a portfolio of studies spanning various disease areas. e University of North Carolina is among the nation’s top public research universities, with dynamic programs in OPEN biostatistics, epidemiology, statistical genetics, bioinformatics, and medicine. is position will remain open until fi lled.

To apply, use the electronic submission website at http://jobs.unc.edu/2501109 and upload PDF versions of your CV, cover letter, and research and teaching statements. Candidates must also Join the largest arrange for three letters of recommendation to arrive via email at [email protected] and gathering of subsequently in hard copy to: statisticians in Faculty Search Committee c/o Betsy Seagroves the world. Department of Biostatistics CB #7420, McGavran-Greenberg Hall Enjoy technical University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill sessions, special Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7420 receptions and gatherings, and an e Gillings School of Global Public Health is actively committed to diversity. We strongly encourage applications from women, minorities and individuals with disabilities. e University of North Carolina at exhibit hall. Chapel Hill is an Equal Opportunity Employer. Also, register for Continuing Education courses, the Career Placement Service, and more.

Early Bird Deadline: May 26

Regular Deadline: July 13

Register online at www.amstat.org/ jsmregistration.

44 amstat news may 2011 Minnesota n Medtronic seeks an experienced Chief, Surveillance Systems Branch principal biostatistician to develop and implement statistical methodology in Surveillance Research Program Division of product surveillance of key medtronic Cancer Control and Population Sciences products, to identify safety signals and quality outcomes (www.medtronic.com/ The National Cancer Institute, located within the National Institutes of careers, job requisition #76192). S/he Health (NIH), Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) is will determine when existing methods accepting applications for the position of Chief, Surveillance Systems Branch (SSB) to provide leadership for this program that researches and can be used and lead the development of reports public health data. SSB manages the Surveillance, Epidemiology, new approaches as necessary. Experience and End Results (SEER) Program, an authoritative population-based sys- should include statistical analysis and tem of cancer data collection and reporting. The Branch conducts research signal detection in merged data from dis- and developmental activities related to the surveillance of cancer patterns parate sources to monitor safety. EOE. in the United States in order to monitor progress against cancer. It also conducts analyses, and provides interpretation of the data. SSB actively consults with other government, private, and public organizations; pre- Oklahoma pares regular reports, geographical summaries, and journal articles; and n responds to many requests for information on national cancer statistics. The Centola Lab is currently seek- The Branch includes a Quality Improvement team that conducts studies ing a biostatistician/statistical modeler. to evaluate the quality and completeness of registry data, and promotes Responsibilities: advanced multivariate adherence to national and international standards. analysis; risk model creation; and writing grants, publications, and patents. Prior SEER has served as a premier resource for decision-making related to supervisory and bootstrapping experi- cancer for over 30 years. The challenges of the next decade include ence a plus. Requirements: PhD or MS changes in infrastructure, resources, and policy. For example, we antici- in statistics or related field. Proficiency pate expansion of information technology systems for data management in R. Send CV, names of three references and eHealth applications and continued development of a national cancer to: Centola Lab, 755 Research Parkway, surveillance enterprise, working through partnerships with both public Rm. 460, OKC, OK 73104. EOE. and private organizations.

The successful candidate must have experience in biostatistics, manage- ment of multi-center research studies, and organization of collaborative n The University of Oklahoma, Tulsa biomedical research. Of particular interest are the candidate’s achieve- Schusterman Center is recruiting ments within professional or other collaborative organizations through for a tenure-track assistant professor. participation in and leadership of goal-oriented groups and committees. Experience in epidemiology, operations research, and cancer research is Candidates must have a doctoral degree not mandatory but desired. Analytic skills are required, as demonstrated in biostatistics, statistics, or related field by published articles in peer-reviewed journals. Knowledge of computer and experience conducting collaborative systems and software development is desirable, but not required. This research. View entire advertisement at position is subject to a background investigation and U.S. citizenship is www.publichealthjobs.net/search/detail. required. Salary $123,000 - $155,500. Located in Rockville, MD, near cfm?jobID=10918. Individuals interested Washington, DC. Excellent benefi ts. DHHS and NIH are equal oppor- in applying should send a letter outlining tunity employers. Please send a cover letter briefl y summarizing your their qualifications, research interests and experience and interests along with your CV to Judith Swan at js60y@ teaching experience, current curriculum nih.gov., Surveillance Research Program, National vitae, and the contact information for Cancer Institute, 301-435-4958. three references to deanna-debus@ouhsc. edu. EOE. http://seer.cancer.gov/ http://surveillance.cancer.gov/

may 2011 amstat news 45 Wisconsin n The department of biostatistics and medical informatics at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine & Public Health seeks applicants for the position of professor of biostatistics starting Sept. 1, 2011. We are especially interested in building departmental strength in clini- cal, translational, epidemiologic, and health services research. Application instructions and other information (PVL #66757 or #66785) can be found at www.biostat.wisc.edu/Overview/ employment.htm. Employment requires criminal background check. AA/EOE.

International n The department of computer sci- ence and engineering at the American University in Cairo invites applicants for a full time, tenure-track position at

NORC conducts high quality social science research in the public interest from its head- quarters at the University of Chicago and from its offices in Chicago, IL, Washington, DC, Bethesda, MD, and Berkeley, CA. We conduct research in economics, demo- graphics, education and child development, health, substance abuse, mental health, justice, and survey quality both in the U.S. and internationally. We offer full-service survey design and operations as well as strengths in analysis, information technol- ogy, and technical assistance. NORC sup- ports the research needs of government in the U.S. and abroad, international donor agencies, foundations, academic research- ers, and private organizations. NORC is actively seeking statisticians, survey methodologists, statistical program- mers, data managers, survey directors, and social scientists with advanced training or experience in survey research or survey operations. New staff will be based in our Chicago, IL or Washington, DC offices. To learn more about NORC and to apply for employment, visit our website at: http://www.norc.org/careers

NORC is an affirmative action, equal opportunity employer that values and actively seeks diversity in the workforce.

46 amstat news may 2011 the assistant or associate professor rank beginning September 2011. The depart- ment is seeking individuals specializing in Natural Language Processing or digi- tal media with an established record in university-level teaching of a wide variety of courses in computing. Apply at http:// Click2Apply.net/zyxxzt2. EOE. n The department of computer sci- ence and engineering at the American University in Cairo invites applicants for a full time, tenure-track position at the assistant or associate professor rank beginning fall 2011. The department is seeking individuals specializing in high- performance computer architecture, embedded systems, microprocessors, and related areas with an established record in university-level teaching. Apply at www.Click2Apply.net/qbw7swq. EOE. n

may 2011 amstat news 47 MAY 2011 • Issue #407

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misc. products and services Brigham Young University...... p. 47 Northwestern University...... p. 24

professional opportunities Celgene ...... p. 42 MD Anderson Cancer Center...... p. 44 NORC...... p. 46 NCI...... p. 45 Travelers Companies...... p. 41 U.S. Census Bureau...... p. 43 University of Connecticut Health Center...... p. 47 The University of North Carolina...... p. 44 University of Pittsburgh...... p. 47 University of Puerto Rico...... p. 41 Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. . . . . p. 46 Westat...... p. 40

software Cytel Inc...... p. 22 JMP, a business unit of SAS...... cover 3 Minitab Inc...... centerfold NCSS...... p. 4 Salford Systems...... p. 18 SAS...... cover 4 Stat-Ease, Inc...... p. 27 Statistical Solutions...... p. 15 StatSoft...... cover 2 XLSTAT ...... p. 28

48 amstat news may 2011