www.africa-confidential.com 7 July 2000 Vol 41 No 14 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 3 The bigger the better ZANU-PF’s Pyrrhic victory At a cost of 30 lives and the forced removal of more than 6,000 The ANC government prefers efficient large-scale commercial farmworkers, the ruling party has scraped home farms to a wide-ranging Another eighteen months of economic stagnation and high-tension politics lie ahead after the ruling resettlement scheme for Zimbabwe African National Union- squeaked to victory in the 24-25 June parliamentary smallholder farmers. But the Zimbabwe confrontations have elections. The Movement for Democratic Change’s winning of 57 seats against ZANU-PF’s 63 seats reminded the ANC of the was impressive, given the violence and intimidation against opposition supporters, but it does not promise importance of pushing through an early end to the power struggle. The MDC is planning to contest the results in at least 10 constituencies. credible land redistribution before Battle lines are being drawn for local elections due in August, when the MDC is again set to sweep the it becomes political dynamite. board in the towns and cities, and for the presidential elections due before April 2002. The MDC, just nine months old, is winning votes through courage and gusto - and most of all because it isn’t ZANU- KENYA 4 PF. Compared to the ageing and often intemperate stalwarts of ZANU-PF, the MDC is an attractive youthful party, full of trades unionists, human rights activists and academics who have somehow A tangled web managed to win some business support. It is a coalition formula that went terribly wrong with Frederick Nairobi’s civil service chief, Richard Chiluba’s Movement for Multi-Party Democracy in , but for now the MDC is ZANU-PF’s Leakey, said that Kenya didn’t want nightmare: a credible, well organised opposition party, which is capable of exploiting the ruling party’s to be infected by the Zimbabwe economic mismanagement and corruption. virus, following reports that Until the presidential polls and the exit of President , Zimbabweans can expect an squatters had occupied land in extended election campaign punctuated by desperate discussions with creditors and the International Coast Province. Land inequities in Kenya owe more to class and Monetary Fund, as well as new battles over constitutional reform between ZANU-PF and its opponents. political manipulation than to race. For now the ZANU-PF leadership and its sponsored ‘war veterans’ want to maintain the occupation of white farms - both as a negotiating tool and as a political symbol. Alongside the occupations is the government’s insistence that the latest 841 designated farms be handed over for resettlement. NAMIBIA 5 Too dry for crops Hunzvi’s torture chamber War veterans’ leader Chenjerai ‘Hitler’ Hunzvi tells colleagues he expects to be Minister for War Namibia’s 4,000 white farmers Veterans, although most of the ‘veterans’ he leads are jobless, disenchanted youths from the towns. The have been shocked by the occupations in Zimbabwe, genuine veterans have launched a court action against Hunzvi for the misuse of their pension fund: in especially by the support of their the furore surrounding the farm occupations, the case against Hunzvi was held up. Hunzvi also faces President, Sam Nujoma, for charges, substantiated by Amnesty International, that he allowed his doctor’s surgey to be used as a torture President Mugabe’s policies. chamber to ‘punish’ opposition supporters. Opinions differ as to whether Mugabe may find it useful for the Attorney General to pursue the corruption case against Hunzvi and have him put back in his box. But ZAMBIA 6 Mugabe probably finds the land issue too politically important to rein in his chief propagandist. So the occupations and the head-to-head confrontations with the MDC will continue. That prospect and its The race to consequences for living standards, already in sharp decline, appals many Zimbabweans. Yet few see any alternative. succeed Most ZANU-PF supporters are in post-poll shock. Many are genuinely surprised about how unpopular The knives are out in the race to their party proved - even with all the advantages of incumbency: a monopoly of state funding for political succeed President Chiluba and parties; support of the state-controlled print and electronic media; and the officially-backed and financed ambitious Environment Minister Mwila has already been suspended intimidation campaign in rural areas. ZANU-PF activists believed their own propaganda and expected for breaking the rules. He may yet the party to win comfortably. There seems to have been little systematic ballot-rigging; presumably the start a new party. intimidation and violence in the countryside (where about 70 per cent of the voters live) were supposed to have done the trick. POINTERS 8 Certainly President ’s Kenya African National Union, which in the past decade has successfully and blatantly rigged two national elections and countless by-elections, makes ZANU-PF Chad/Cameroon, look like amateurs. Neither can many of Mugabe’s closest political allies outside Africa be impressed: no self-respecting Asian or Middle Eastern autocrat - such as Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad or the Sudan, Gambia & Sultan of Oman - would have submitted themselves to a Zimbabwe-style electoral test or to the sort of Sierra Leone criticism and abuse Mugabe now receives from the local private press. Under fire; Hall of mirrors II; death Many younger ZANU-PF supporters are turning on Mugabe, blaming his political style for the party’s on the river; and Kabbah in court. failure. Within hours of the declaration of the results, several of the new crop of ZANU-PF MPs and at 7 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 14

And this is ZANU-PF’s biggest problem. If Mugabe retires soon, ZANU-PF majority there would be an early presidential election which the party would, MDC majority Korekore on present showing, lose. Yet if Mugabe stays, he will continue to 0 Kilometres 100 MASHONALAND dominate government style and policy so that the party will be unable 0 Miles 50 MASHONALAND CENTRAL to repair the damage. WEST ST A E Party factionalism is increasing. Sharp differences are emerging on D a Zezuru N k A n L economic reform and policy towards foreign donors. And there is now o A T N O a regional divide: ZANU-PF is no longer a national party as it holds H S A no urban seats; it has no seats at all in Harare and the suburbs, with only MATEBELELAND M two in all Matebeleland. The MDC have urban seats galore, and NORTH ZIMBABWE Manyika Ndebele MIDLANDS MANICALAND several rural seats: it was only in ZANU-PF’s heartland of Mashonaland Karanga Central that the MDC failed to win any seats at all. ZANU-PF won no K seats in three provinces. Total population: a l Ndau This creates problems for ZANU-PF party managers. Former 13 million a Shona-speakers (75%): n MASVINGO Home Affairs Minister, , who lost his seat in Karanga, Korekore, g Manyika, Ndau, Zezuru a Matebeleland, said the election result spells the end of the 1987 Unity Ndebele and related MATEBELELAND groups (20%): SOUTH Shangaan pact agreed between ZANU-PF and the late ’s Kalanga, Ndebele Venda Others (5%): Zimbabwe African People’s Union (which dominated Matebeleland Shangaan, Tonka, immediately after Independence). Mugabe flew down to Venda, Whites for a service to commemorate the first anniversary of Nkomo’s death - after ensuring that Roman Catholic Archbishop of Bulawayo, Pius least one provincial chairman were telling journalists that Mugabe Ncube, would not be leading the service. Ncube has become one of must go as soon as possible - to allow the party to redeem itself in the the Church’s most prominent critics of the government, speaking of its upcoming elections. There is probably near unanimity in ZANU-PF ‘constant campaign of violence and intimidation’. Last month Ncube that Mugabe should announce his departure well before the 2002 said he had been warned that his name was on an assassination list election. Only hyper-loyalists and presidential relatives suggest he drawn up by the Central Intelligence Organisation. should be allowed to stand again. But Mugabe’s promise on 2 July to re-examine the circumstances Some believe the party could recover ground by engineering an in which more than 3,000 people were killed in the 1983 security economic upturn (aided by donors funds and restored credit lines) and clampdown in Matebeleland did little to boost ZANU-PF’s standing. then holding a snap presidential election. Such new wave thinking Neither will Mugabe’s probable appointment of sons of Matebeleland, doesn’t impress the party stalwarts who will dominate Mugabe’s new such as Dabengwa, former Local Government Minister cabinet and try to orchestrate the choice of his successor. They are and former Tourism Minister Simon Moyo, as nominated MPs help likely to advise Mugabe to serve his full term but allow his anointed ZANU-PF much. Dabengwa and Moyo were badly defeated, and successor gradually to take more of the limelight. One such stalwart Nkomo (who is ZANU-PF’s National Chairman) didn’t even stand. told Africa Confidential: ‘The President is a great constitutionalist. He In Masvingo, the ZANU-PF vote was saved by a propitious redrawing will insist on serving his term until the end, he would see giving up of electoral boundaries: the MDC won more than a third of votes cast early as cowardly and defeatist.’ From the other side Zimbabwe now has a multi-party political system. ZANU-PF will General , a respected academic and civil society have to struggle to get more controversial bills through, as about 15 activist also from Matebeleland, will focus on constitutional reform. dissidents among the new crop of ZANU-PF MPs have emerged. But Another MDC frontliner will be human rights lawyer , fear of an early presidential election should deter all but the toughest currently the party’s Secretary for Land and Agriculture who is to push dissidents for now. for a return to the 1998 agreement on land reform which provides for Strongly anti-dissident are Mugabe’s young turks - war veterans’ the redistribution of at least 5 million hectares of land in a framework leader Chenjerai ‘Hitler’ Hunzvi and Chairman of the government’s that will bring in outside funding for the land’s development. Anti-Corruption Commission Philip Chiyangwa. Most of the ZANU- There are three women MPs in the MDC’s front line: Sekai PF old guard are staying on - ministers who lost their seats such as Holland (Secretary for International Affairs) who was the target of and Dumiso Dabengwa are likely to come much pre-election brutality by ZANU-PF supporters; Pauline back as nominated MPs. But for the first time ministers will face Gwanyanya (Labour and Social Welfare); and Thoko Khupe serious questioning. The MDC can pursue its concerns about (Transport). And MDC has three white MPs, two who have pursued government corruption without attracting libel writs. human rights cases: , former Head of the Catholic Although its President, , didn’t win his Buhera Commission for Justice and Peace; , a Bulawayo-based North contest against the ZANU-PF’s Provincial Chairman, Kenneth lawyer; and a fluent Shona-speaking, commercial farmer, Roy Bennet, Manyonda, MDC is fielding an impressive front line in parliament. in Chimamanimani. But the MDC’s business backers aren’t well Tsvangirai has turned down an offer of a nominated seat from President represented among their MPs. One banker complained the MDC intake Robert Mugabe and will be concentrating his efforts on his bid for the is activist-heavy and lacks anyone with management experience. The Presidency in 2002. But Tsvangirai’s deputy, locomotive driver and MDC’s Secretary for Economic Affairs is white businessman Eddie former President of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trades Unions, Gibson Cross who didn’t stand for parliament. Although fluent in the Sibanda from Bulawayo, will be the MDC leader in parliament. policyspeak of economic reform, Cross has left a trail of failed Eloquent and witty, Sibanda will put across labour’s views even when businesses behind him. With its trade unionist and civil society they are at odds with the MDC’s business backers. MDC Secretary following, the MDC is yet to explain how much reform it can stand.

2 7 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 14 in the province but only two out of its 14 seats. Masvingo’s ZANU- PF activists are split: those supporting Deputy President Simon SOUTH AFRICA Muzenda (who said that ZANU-PF members should vote for a baboon if that’s what the party demands); those behind , the Minister without portfolio and putative successor candidate; and a breed of young turks eager to replace both the above The bigger the better veterans. In regional terms, ZANU-PF’s sweeping victory in The government prefers efficient farmers to Masvingo and strong performance in Midlands province (11 of the contented peasants province’s 16 seats), enable the Karanga (the biggest Shona speaking group) to make a strong claim for the leadership of ZANU-PF after Zimbabwe’s land rows have touched a sore nerve in South Africa, Mugabe, who is Zezuru (the second biggest Shona group). where land hunger is a lively, if partly suppressed, political issue and In Manicaland, the MDC won 7 seats, ZANU-PF won 6 and where white people still dominate commercial farming. Like their Ndabaningi Sitole’s ZANU won one seat: a serious setback for northern neighbours, South Africa’s white farmers have been victims of ZANU-PF’s status as the revolutionary party which won the land for violence. Over 600 farmers and farm-workers have been killed since the the people. The Chimurenga (liberation struggle) started in Manicaland African National Congress took office in 1994, but most have been and ZANU-PF’s loss of political supremacy there signals how low its killed by criminals, not political activists. Before their recent merger, stock has fallen. It also puts paid to the leadership aspirations of any both the parties with substantial white memberships - the New National Manyika (the third biggest Shona group). That leaves the three Party and Democratic Party (DP) - had claimed that black militants Mashonaland provinces which hold the core of ZANU-PF support. (especially in the small Pan Africanist Congress, PAC) were plotting to So a regional rivalry between Mashonaland (Zezuru) and Midlands/ drive farmers off their land. Politicians and police chiefs say this is not Masvingo (Karanga) for the succession and post-election dominance so but one leaked intelligence report said the aim was indeed political. of ZANU-PF is set to develop while Matebeleland and Manicaland Police activity has increased farmers security, as have farmers’ own look on. There will also be a battle over strategy: the first test will be precautions. About half of the country’s 80,000 farmers are expected Mugabe’s appointment of the 30 nominated MPs. to use a new system which got under way in December, linking farms After the traditional chiefs nominate ten MPs (subject to Mugabe’s to each other and to police and emergency services by satellite and the approval), the eight provincial chairmen get their seats (two of them GSM cellular telephone network. In an emergency, farmers can press are already elected MPs; that leaves Mugabe with 14 seats vacant. He a button transmitting a distress call to neighbours and security services. will have to appoint at least three from Matebeleland to make the Still, in Eastern Cape Province, the influential Transvaal Land ZANU-PF caucus look more representative; he will have to bring in Services Organisation (Tralso) said the slow pace of restitution could at least three or four women as all but one of ZANU-PF’s female lead to Zimbabwe-style occupations and its Programme Manager, candidates lost; and then he will have to reinstate some of his key Simbongile Kamtshe, said black people trapped in poverty were ministers who also lost their seats, such as former Justice Minister ‘capable of doing anything’. The Southern Cape Land Committee, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Employment Creation Minister Thenjiwe representing 3,000 land claimants, has written to President Thabo Lesabe and Deputy Education Minister Sikhanyiso Ndolovu. Mbeki with their complaints. Of these Mnangagwa is almost certain to be nominated as an MP. As ZANU-PF’s Finance Secretary, he is Mugabe’s ‘points man’ on the Winnie stirs the pot party’s business operations. Mnangagwa is still the most likely On a visit to Zimbabwe, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela stirred the pot, successor to Mugabe as President of ZANU-PF. But in the elections exhorting blacks to seize land if they needed it. In Mpumalanga Mnangagwa managed to win just 8,352 votes in his Province, the Director of the (unofficial) National Land Committee, constituency against the MDC’s who won 15,388. Zakes Hlatshwayo, warned that land invasions could hit if land Mnanagagwa’s defeat came after a group of unidentified men restitution were not speeded up. His committee recently threatened to firebombed Chebundo’s house. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai told invade farms in the Wakkerstroom district but backed down after Lands Africa Confidential that his party will take legal action against and Agriculture Minister A.T. ‘Thoko’ Didiza said police would Mnangagwa following a report that one of the cars used by his election intervene. Mpumalanga Agricultural Union President, Laurie Bosman, campaign team was linked to the firebombing. said the police and army were on standby and the Transvaal and Western As Mugabe finalises his 14 nominated MPs, he has to consider the Cape Agricultural unions called on Mbeki to make clear that ‘invasions’ shape of his new cabinet. The most likely cabinet moves are of former would not be tolerated. He did so and the bush fires died down. Finance Minister (who held his seat in Goromonzi) The ruling ANC’s restive ally, the Congress of SA Trade Unions who will go sideways to Foreign Affairs to be replaced by Mnangagwa (Cosatu) for once backed the President, lining up its 1.8 million (seen by business as having more muscle than Murerwa and more able affiliated members behind a condemnation of Zimbabwe’s methods of to push an austerity programme through cabinet). Mnangagwa might land seizure. Before a parliamentary committee in June, Deputy see it as a way of relaunching his campaign to succeed Mugabe. Agriculture and Land Affairs Minister Dirk du Toit explained that the Another contender for the Finance portfolio is the Chief Executive state possessed little arable land: only about 690,000 hectares were of the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe, . The former available for distribution outside the former black ‘homelands’ and up Foreign Minister, historian Stanley Mudenge, is slated to take over to 1.2 mn. ha. within them. Industry and Commerce from who retired from So in any redistribution programme, most land would have to come politics at the election. Such a cabinet is unlikely to produce a from white farmers, either by purchase or donation. Du Toit’s boss reforming ZANU-PF government. So the first real multi-party Didiza emphasised that land reform was a priority but would have to be parliament’s debates will be raucous and rancorous. Good for rhetoric measured and orderly. The law distinguishes between land restitution but bad for plotting an economic recovery. (to former occupiers) and land redistribution (to new claimants). This complexity helps to explain why claims had been settled slowly and are

3 7 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 14

only now starting to speed up. Moreover, there is a clash of ideologies between white leftists, KENYA such as former Lands and Agriculture Minister Derek Hanekom, and black ‘realists’ such as Didiza, who replaced him when Mbeki was elected President last June; last year, too, Helena Dolny, widow of Communist leader Joe Slovo, was forced out of her job as General A tangled web Manager of the Land Bank, while Geoff Budlender lost his post as The government opposes land-grabs, which Director General of Lands. These left-wingers had argued that could threaten its own estates smallholder farmers needed more land quickly. Didiza, backed by her Director General, Bonji Njobe (who is close to the Mbeki family), ‘We do not wish to be infected by the Zimbabwe virus’. That was how think the nation’s real need is an efficient commercial farming sector. the head of Kenya’s civil service, Richard Leakey, reacted to press This camp points out that, for the 2.36 mn. rural households in former reports in early June that squatters had occupied land belonging to black homelands (covering 13 per cent of the national territory, much Basil Criticos in Taita District, Coast Province. Criticos, who was of it arid and infertile) farming accounts for only 2.7 per cent of then a deputy Minister of Tourism, had complained that some 300 income, while 38 per cent comes from remittances by relatives living acres (120 hectares) of his land had been forcibly taken over, following elsewhere. bellicose statements (‘Grab all white-owned land’) by Stephen Ndicho, a Kikuyu opposition member of parliament from Thika near Nairobi. Sluggish restitution Leakey said that there had been no land seizure of the kind anywhere A few months before he fired Hanekom, Mbeki gave commercial in the country and that police would swiftly stop it if it happened. farmers a sympathetic hearing when they asked for more state President Daniel arap Moi supported Leakey’s statement and fired support to boost their competitiveness, as trade ‘liberalisation’ the Minister for creating unnecessary alarm. Criticos now insists he admits cheap food from Europe and America (AC Vol 41 No 12). has been doubly wronged, by the state and by the squatters. The only It then looked as if the push for land restitution and redistribution other white-owned land to be invaded belonged to ranchers in the was grinding to a halt, since the government seemed to have no semi-arid Laikipia District, 240 kilometres north of Nairobi. The plans to break up commercial farms or undertake major distribution. invaders, nomadic Maasai and Samburu whose livestock is threatened The Restitution of Land Rights Act, which the ANC introduced by severe drought, have said they will leave as soon as rain falls. when it first took office in 1994, had opened the way for restitution. The anti-colonial struggle in Kenya in the 1950s was about land Hanekom said 3.5 mn. South Africans had been evicted from their and race, as well as Independence from Britain. The Mau Mau land over the years and that they should be compensated. Now, the rebellion in central Kenya was led by the Kikuyu against European and one province that talks positively about redistribution is highly other settlers. Now two white Kenyans, both of them in government, urbanised Gauteng, which has promised to cater for its 2.5 mn. argue on opposite sides about land occupation. Before Independence landless (some 300,000 rural people move into urban areas each in 1963, the British government had seen that violence over land year). rights could ruin the country for the incoming government. In 1960, The radical PAC has other ideas and its annual conference this year Prime Minister Harold Macmillan’s Conservative government agreed gave Zimbabwean diplomats a standing ovation, prompting the (largely to help finance the transfer of about one million acres (circa 404,200 white) DP to warn that ‘South Africans could be faced with a similar ha.) in the White Highlands to African squatters. The World Bank [to Zimbabwe] situation if the government continues to ignore the joined in two years later. The land was that thought most suitable for poverty trap many of our people are caught in.’ An opinion poll by a small-scale market gardening and the new landowners, most of them black newspaper showed 54 per cent support in the townships for Kikuyu, were lent cash to purchase and develop it. The scheme was Zimbabwe’s farm seizures. criticised because the size and quality of plots was uneven and because It’s unclear what South Africa’s rural blacks think of the it made Africans pay for what had forcibly been taken from them last violence of Zimbabwe’s ‘war veterans’ but they are certainly century. However, the Kenya settlement programme has been one of disgruntled. So are some surprising outside observers. In 1993, the the most economically and socially successful schemes in Africa. World Bank (following its own policies in Latin America) offered Other lands were transferred in a similar way to peasants (again, a draft policy on land reform that proposed the rapid and massive mostly Kikuyu) organised in cooperatives, which purchased large distribution of land to black and ‘coloured’ (mixed race) people, to European-owned farms suitable for food and livestock production. In prevent a flare-up of violence, capital flight and economic decline. the 1992 elections, the ruling Kenya African National Union exploited The draft argued that the conversion of commercial farms into resentment of large holdings in the Rift Valley from members of Moi’s small or medium-sized farms was the cheapest and fastest way to Kalenjin ethnic group. Kalenjin groups were organised to occupy generate employment but the ANC found this too radical. Kikuyu-owned farms in the Rift by force. In other words, the land and Professor David Welsh says the land phenomenon is not ethnicity card was played to weaken the opposition in the run up to an comparable to Zimbabwe’s. Outside a few favoured regions, South election, just as in Zimbabwe this year. Africa’s land is unsuitable for small-scale farming, being prone to Many large commercial farms - ranches, and plantations of coffee, devastating droughts and low fertility. ‘Quite unlike Zimbabwe’s tea, sugar, sisal and so on - were considered unsuitable for small- war of liberation, South Africa’s struggle was predominantly holders and are still run by rich whites, multinational companies and urban and nearly 60 per cent of the African population are today prosperous blacks, many of them with KANU connections. The urban’ he concludes. ‘The land-hunger that exists is unlikely to be Criticos family owns a vast sisal and ranching franchise which once transformed into movements that could threaten the ANC’s belonged to Colonel Ewart S. Grogan, a legendary settler pioneer; hegemony. The Zimbabwean example may, however, serve to the family has handed over parts of it free to local landless people, expedite the sluggish existing programmes for restitution and which helped Basil Criticos win a parliamentary seat against an redistribution’. In that way, President Mugabe’s land tactics might African rival in 1997. Huge plantations and ranches are owned by prove to be constructive - at least to the ANC. 4 7 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 14 wealthy Africans (including the families of the founding President, Jomo Kenyatta, and of Moi himself), sometimes jointly with white Kenyans or foreign investors. Examples are Kakuzi Fibrelands (sisal Cautious in and coffee), and Socfinaff (coffee). Good land is scarce in Malawi and the best of it is occupied by settlers (often of South African origin) who produce the grain and the exports of tea and tobacco that keep the struggling economy afloat. Meanwhile, Del Monte and the squatters nearly 60 per cent of the country’s ten million people live in rural areas, Ndicho’s Thika constituency contains both many large plantations eking out a poor living from household gardens on soil whose fertility and many poor, landless, Kikuyu. Some think he was really aiming not soon wears out. Much as Malawians resent these inequities, those that at the whites but at the KANU barons around Moi, which could explain crossed the south-western border to work in Zimbabwe have felt the the government’s speed in refuting his call for occupations. In mid- brunt of President Robert Mugabe’s election campaigning on the land June, another Kikuyu opposition leader, Paul K. Muite, asked the issue. Malawian migrant workers were the target of pre-election multinational Del Monte Corporation, which owns vast tracts in violence, accused by Mugabe’s supporters of being stooges of Zimbabwe’s white farmers and trying to vote illegally for the opposition. Thika, to allocate part of its estate to landless Kikuyu or face occupation Back home, the problem for President Bakili Muluzi and his by squatters. His call came after yet another death (from bites by guard government is to accommodate the land needs of citizens while dogs) of a squatter who was picking fruit from company land. The preserving agro-exports. The heaviest pressure is felt around the tea resulting tension is still evident in Thika and the Kenya Police and the estates, most of them in the south. To ensure a supply of cheap labour, paramilitary General Services Unit have been instructed to arrest colonial tea-planters allocated small plots to the people they displaced anyone occupying land illegally. from their lands; others moved in to the same areas in hope of work on On 1 June, Moi issued a strong warning against the forcible the plantations. The result was overcrowding, on plots typically half occupation of white-owned farms, assuring Kenyans and foreign a hectare in extent, inadequate to feed a household. Moreover, investors that the Laikipia occupations were tolerated only as a mechanisation and agro-chemicals have reduced the demand for casual plantation labour. temporary drought-relief measure. The only forced land occupations Muluzi appointed a commission late last year to investigate land backed by the government are those in the Rift Valley between 1992 ownership and usage. Its recent report said, ‘original settler acquisitions and 1996. The status of that land remains unresolved but there is small in Malawi were fraudulent’, giving private title to land while Africans chance that the Kikuyu whose land and property was then taken over retained merely ‘occupation rights’. Yet from political and economic by Kalenjin warriors will ever be compensated. expediency, ‘titles derived from Certificates of Claim held by the Moi has said nothing about the Rift Valley occupations but some settlers should not be disturbed’. Instead, a social development fund wealthy Kikuyu farmers and business people, such as Kenneth should be set up, ‘for the alleviation of poverty and land pressure Matiba and John N. Michuki, have reminded Ndicho that under his among the indigenous populations in the areas affected by the Certificates formula, Kikuyu farmers in the Rift (who in 1992 were described as of Claim’ and proper rules should be established for land management and the auditing of land ownership. ‘settlers’, just like Zimbabwean whites) would again be liable to Irene Chikapa of the Lands Ministry says a new policy will be eviction. At this point, Ndicho called off his campaign to occupy the ready by the end of 2000, based on customary law, where land tenure white lands, claiming instead to have evidence that large and small- would revert to the government and be administered by traditional scale Kikuyu farmers in the Rift Valley were again being targeted for authorities. ‘No more freehold titles will be granted.’ The government forcible expropriation. The point was missed by the fiery Kikuyu will not requisition land that is productively used but will buy under- activist Koigi Wamwere, who took refuge in Sweden after losing the utilised land on the basis of ‘willing-buyer, willing-seller’ on which to 1997 elections. Reared in a squatter family in Nakuru (once an all- resettle people. Humphrey Mvula, an independent analyst, says there white community) Koigi recently wrote a polemic in the respected is no threat of the government seizing land from estate owners but that Nairobi weekly, the East African, praising Robert Mugabe’s land issues of compensation for the displaced communities need to be addressed. Infrastructure in these communities is almost non-existent policies. Kikuyu still living in Nakuru remembered the events of 1992 and the inhabitants are very poor. ‘The estate owners are not ploughing and were not amused. back their profits into these communities’. under Article 16 of the constitution, subject to just compensation. The NAMIBIA present resettlement programme is on the principle of ‘willing buyer, willing seller’; since farmers can demand the open-market price, state purchases are expensive. When the UK High Commissioner in Too dry for crops Namibia, in a recent radio interview, seemed to suggest that the government’s policy was uncertain, the Permanent Secretary at Redistribution sounds a good idea until you Information, Mocks Shivute, objected, reiterating that the willing look at the land itself buyer principle would be upheld. However in May, when parliament Namibia’s 4,000 white farmers have been shocked by the farm debated legislation for a new land acquisition and development fund, occupations in Zimbabwe. The farmers, mostly of Afrikaner or SWAPO Secretary General Hifikepunye Pohamba, a close confidant German ancestry, had felt safe under the government’s policy of of Nujoma’s, said the government would have no alternative but to national reconciliation. Yet there are close links between the governing expropriate some land in the interest of landless Namibians. South West Africa People’s Organisation (AC Vol 41 No 2) and the Even if forced purchases pushed the price of land down, most of Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front and President Sam Namibia’s 1.7 million people would not be helped much. The towns Nujoma has loudly supported President Robert Mugabe’s demands are overcrowded and most rural areas, including most commercial that Britain compensate the white farmers. With its two-thirds farming areas, are sparsely populated. In the centre, the Herero majority in parliament, the government could in theory change the community has a strong claim to land brutally seized a century ago by constitution to acquire land without compensation. German colonists and allocated to white settlers. Yet SWAPO ruled Expropriation of private property in the national interest is permitted out the return of land to its ancestral owners in the mid-1990s, partly

5 7 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 14

to avoid inter-tribal disputes but also for fear of damaging the most lie down: he has contemptuously dismissed as irregular his suspension productive farm sector. In the north near the Angolan border, the on 22 June by party henchman Michael ‘King Cobra’ Sata and dense population puts severe pressure on the land though the main looked likely to boycott a tribunal slated for 7 July. He is accused of problem is that communal land is inefficiently used. printing duplicate membership cards and of insubordination - charges, say some insiders, out of which he could easily wriggle. Yet even Customs and communal land B.Y. is treading carefully (as is Chiluba, who refuses to sack him Subsistence farms earn an annual average of only N$3,000 (US$470); from his ministerial job), surrounding himself with minions eager to the average for commercial farms is N$90,000 (US$14,060), do his bidding and insisting on his democratic right to run for the Commercial agriculture covers 36.5 mn. hectares, about 44 per cent presidency. Mwila’s camp hopes, probably in vain, to impeach of the national territory, with some 4,000 freeholders owning 6,400 Chiluba: ‘It is doubtful whether the leadership believes in holdings averaging 5,700 ha; 5 per cent of private land is suitable for constitutional ideals; it is the bread and butter issues that motivate crops but 60 per cent receives average annual rainfall of under 300 most of them and they know which side their bread is buttered’, says millimetres, so can produce little save meat, hides and wool. one analyst. Commercial farms contribute around 5 per cent of gross domestic Chiluba has in the past quickly axed those who step out of line, product, 90 per cent of overall agricultural output and some 10 per cent including even, as Commerce and Industry Minister in 1998, Enock of exports; they employ some 36,000 labourers, about 8 per cent of the Kavindele - not a task for the faint-hearted. Mwila’s apparent workforce. The communal areas cover roughly the same area, 34 mn. immunity has stoked up speculation that behind the public wrangling ha., supporting over half the population in around 140,000 families is a plan to allow him to succeed ‘democratically’. The bond and producing circa 3 per cent of GDP. Subsistence farmers grow between Uncle Ben and his nephew the President is complicated and most of the staple, mahangu (millet); when rains are plentiful, the extends beyond family ties into business; many say Chiluba cannot country is self-sufficient. afford to alienate B.Y. But since access to communal land is governed by custom and Kinship may also work against Mwila. Chiluba is said to have granted by local chiefs, farmers have no tenancies and no collateral for recently told MMD leaders that his successor cannot be a Chibemba- loans, so they cannot invest in improvements. New fencing of land is speaking northerner from the Copperbelt, Northern or Luapula banned but there is no procedure for redistributing land already provinces. This seems to be an effort to appease those party factions illegally fenced off, often by ministers and government officials under disgruntled with the Bemba dominance of Zambian politics. Chiluba private deals with chiefs. has positioned himself squarely in Bemba politics, although the Land boards are supposed to allocate land more fairly but have ‘proper’ Bembas (as they see themselves) of Kasama and Chinsali little effect. The official resettlement target aims to put 243,000 protest that he is yet another pretender from ‘Liverpool’, the derisive Namibians on 686 mn. ha., with a minimum farm unit of 3,000 ha. in nickname for Luapula. the south and 1,000 ha. in areas of higher rainfall. That, unrealistically, Many in the MMD worry that recent by-election losses reflect an would take up 83 per cent of the country’s total area, 44 per cent of anti-northern shift among electors, though it may just be that the which is already set aside for national parks and diamond concessions. people, 80 per cent of whom now live below the poverty line, are fed So far, the government has purchased 461,000 ha., less than 1 per cent up with a government that has failed to deliver. Regional cleavages, of the official requirement, and has resettled 27,000 Namibians on contained to a certain extent during the days of former President commercial land and 7,000 on communal land, most of it marginal. , have re-emerged. The northern connection helps The United Nations Development Programme points out that land to explain the backlash against Mwila (led by Sata, himself a redistribution, if done in an environmentally sustainable way, might northerner but fiercely loyal to Chiluba). A stronger motive for anti- not put many more people on commercial farmland than are employed Mwila feeling is that, by breaking the rules, he has thwarted his there at present. The obstacles to a coherent policy make it likely that, rival’s presidential ambitions. Yet he claims support within cabinet while ministers make speeches about redistribution, the commercial and retains friends in high places from his days as Defence Minister farmers have little to fear for now. - including, we hear, intelligence chief Xavier Franklin Chungu. There are rumours that Mwila might form his own party, perhaps taking with him a rag-tag of the sidelined and unscrupulous. Yet ZAMBIA Mwila, widely described as a ‘shadowy’ and ‘sinister’ figure and as ‘hiding something behind those dark glasses’ is not popular - indeed, the dark glasses have now disappeared, perhaps in an effort to The race to succeed improve his image. It is too late for this, though, in the once vibrant, close-knit mining town of Luanshya, for which he is member of Since President Chiluba promised to go, the parliament. He and the other MP for Roan, self-confessed drugs- race to follow him is on - covertly trafficker Vernon Mwaanga, stood by as the Binani Group all but The knives are out as the ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy, destroyed the mine after its controversial takeover in 1997. The bereft of a natural successor to President Frederick Chiluba, begins its public, especially the middle class, may not believe in Mwila’s vocal pre-election finagling. Chiluba could yet cancel his promised retirement democracy, after a decade at the heart of a sullied leadership. and nothing can be ruled out. With up to 18 months before the elections, The voters in the populous compounds of and the Copperbelt few cabinet members will dare to violate Chiluba’s ban and proclaim will make the difference. ‘All he is to do is buy beer in the townships their presidential ambitions. The controversial Environment Minister, and he’s got his votes’, claim cynics. Yet there are doubts about Ben ‘B.Y.’ Mwila, did so and is now suspended as MMD national Mwila’s constant boasts of being the richest man in Zambia; his vast Treasurer. His colleagues are keen to hold on to jobs peppered with business empire may not be that cash-rich, the Bank of Zambia is still perks. Behind closed doors, though, people are chattering quietly. chasing him for money and the Auditor General’s Department has Mwila, whose apparent fall from grace surprised many, is refusing to launched, albeit belatedly and under political pressure, a probe into

6 7 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 14

colleagues, he used to be in the MMD but it’s thought unlikely that he Clean up for donors would help his former colleagues by standing against the leader, Lusaka is buzzing with preparations for a crucial meeting of the Anderson Mazoka, at the party convention. Mulwila is considered Consultative Group of donors in the city on 16-19 July. The government too smart to jeopardise his career by standing against Mazoka, who is is hoping for US$605 million for next year; over half that is expected more popular and likely to win, even if the MMD throws money to be pledged but not all will turn into disbursed cash. Like Malawi, around. Yet the MMD is as keen on infiltration as on disinformation; and Tanzania, Zambia is allowing civil society into the to evade the ruling party’s wiles, the UPND is keeping mum about the hitherto closed meeting (meaning ‘respectable’ non-governmental organisations) but not opposition parties. This concession was hard- date of the convention at which party elections will be held. won, though not necessarily opposed by Finance Minister Katele Kaunda’s old United National Independence Party survived its Kalumba, who has tried to improve government-NGO relations. turbulent party congress in May, when Francis Nkhoma limped in as However, other ministers had wanted the meeting held in a national party President after a re-run against Chief Inyambo Yeta. Nkhoma’s park, arguing that the country needed to sell its tourism potential and start was not auspicious. Jeering UNIP women sabotaged his intended if many NGOs couldn’t afford to attend, then too bad. triumphal entry to the party’s Freedom House headquarters and K.K. With the mines sold, the key issues are economic management and has warned him to ‘clean his own hands before trying to clean the governance. NGOs fear donors may not agree on a tough stance but nation’. Although acquitted of any wrongdoing, Nkhoma left his donors insist they will press the government to tackle corruption. governorship of the central bank under a cloud. The government has so far done nothing about its strategy for good governance, drafted by the capable Vincent Malambo in Legal Affairs Nevertheless, many of the Central Committee’s new members seem and published earlier this year. Donors have been keen to see some ready to rally behind him, at least for now. Not a traditional UNIP action before the consultative meeting, in particular wanting the person, Nkhoma is from the party’s traditional stronghold, which may government to publish an inquiry by Japhet Banda into the torture of work in his favour providing UNIP does well in coming by-elections, the 1997 coup detainees, with prosecution of those named, plus an end with Sesheke in Western Province due on 25 July. to foot-dragging on investigations of complaints about maltreatment of K.K.’s influence is still strong. His son Tilyenji has been parachuted detainees. They also want the government to cut the staggering sums in as UNIP Secretary General, his ardent supporter Tayaomse Kabwe now siphoned off into individual pockets. With donors now focussing retains the commerce post, his former aide Muhabi Lungu holds on health and education, those ministries will come under scrutiny. finance and Rabson Chongo is Nkhoma’s deputy. Yet the web of The government’s interim poverty reduction strategy paper has helped relations with the International Monetary Fund but NGOs think personal relationships that ruled UNIP’s Central Committee appears it glosses over transparency and corruption issues. Approval of a $4.5 to have disentangled. Tilyenji Kaunda says his ambition is to get to billion debt write-off, under the IMF scheme for Heavily Indebted Poor but his bravado is believed to be for his father’s sake. This Countries (HIPC), could be completed by January. Civil society will soft-spoken son lacks the clout to safeguard the Kaunda dynasty, as his also highlight flaws in the electoral process: harassment of parties, more aggressive murdered brother Wezi might have done. And UNIP NGOs and media, police abuse of the Public Order Act and the integrity would have to to move fast to resuscitate its invaluable one-party of the Electoral Commission, one of whose commissioners is a sister grassroots network. A few diehards still feel passionate but UNIP was of the Vice-President. weakened by its 1996 election-boycott and by rows over the succession. Its present activity consists mainly of a few meetings in Lusaka. procurement practices during his five years as Defence Minister. An electoral alliance between UNIP, with support from Eastern Vice-President Christon Tembo and Sata are thought keen to run Province, and the UPND, with ethnic links to Mazoka’s Southern, together for President and Vice-President. Sharp-tongued Sata may Western and North-Western provinces, could break the MMD’s grip have gained yet more enemies with his heavy-handed suspensions of and even give the partnership the presidency and vice-presidency. Mwila’s supporters but Tembo’s credentials as the compromise Some younger UNIP members might accept a joint presidential candidate appear to be gaining ground. Campaign tee-shirts and candidate, though they ‘don’t know which way Mazoka is heading’. chitenge (cloth wraps) are rumoured to be ready for distribution. Mazoka’s camp says it will consider every avenue but it is wary of Mwila denies this. what it calls the stigma of an ineffectual UNIP. Yet a merger looks to Tembo is from Eastern Province (cries of ‘Malawian’ are bandied be out; talks between the Zambian Alliance for Progress and UPND about) and appears to have Chiluba’s confidence - although he has have already failed because, says Mazoka’s lot, ‘the conditions were twice failed to be elected to the MMD National Executive Committee. too stiff’ - an equal share of leadership positions and a change of name. Another easterner, Brigadier , the Education Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Minister, is also believed to fancy his chances, despite his demotion Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at from the vice-presidency three years ago. Still the MMD’s deputy 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. leader - although he has antagonised many during his spell at Education Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. - he is regarded as a man of integrity, if not aptitude. Administration: Clare Tauben. Dirty tactics are increasingly used against the opposition. Police have tried to block rallies and, last month, the highly partisan Anti- Annual subscriptions, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: Corruption Commission arrested one of the stars of the United Party UK: £278 Europe: £278 Africa: £258 US:$697 (including Airmail) for National Development in what is seen as a crude attempt at Rest of the World: £361 destabilisation. The UPND’s Chairperson for Information and Students (with proof): £79 or US$126 Publicity, Love Mtesa, is accused of breaching employment rules All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. while High Commissioner in London. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 The name of lawyer John Mulwila, a UPND Vice-President 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 (alongside another lawyer, Sakwiba Sikota, appointed on 23 June) Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. has been mentioned as a possible MMD target. Like most of his party ISSN 0044-6483

7 7 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 14

friend of France and its oil companies). competing factions in the presidency. And Pointers Col. Moammar el Gadaffi has been bailing Darboe’s arrest may also have been a ploy to out Déby but might drop him if he got any weaker divert attention from claims that several soldiers - and if Libya tried to rescue him, the consortium’s in Jammeh’s presidential guard had been abducted CHAD/CAMEROON US companies would face political pressure and by armed men in plain clothes following reports of threats of sanctions from Washington. Exxon’s coup plotting. public relations people say, belatedly, that their The APRC faces local government elections, Under fire company is uneasy about involvement with Déby’s due in November, and Jammeh faces a presidential Work is scheduled to start late this year on the regime. Western embassies in Chad have warned vote early next year. To boost its chance of controversial US$3.7 billion Chad-Cameroon their nationals to be ready to run. Only the hope winning, the party is running a campaign of pipeline following the World Bank’s June decision of riches from Doba keeps Déby’s friends loyal. If intimidation. It pays little heed to outside observers to lend the project $193 million. Chad’s Doba the pipeline project is sunk, so is the President. So such as the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Basin could be producing oil by 2004; the pipeline Déby’s promise to the Bank to ensure good Group, which is still hoping to get Jammeh to lift will take the oil 1,100 kilometres to the Atlantic, management of pipeline revenue rings hollow. the ban on the leaders of the People’s Progressive at Kribi port in Cameroon, whose government Party, which formed the previous government of would also profit. SUDAN President Sir Dawda Jawara. Last month in With strong United States’ government support parliament the APRC voted down opposition calls and an elaborate public relations offensive, the for an inquiry into Jammeh’s handling of a 20,000 Bank faced down pressure by environmentalists Hall of mirrors II barrel a day oil market concession granted by Nigeria’s military leader General Sani Abacha. and human rights activists; Italy was the only Due to Transatlantic crossed wires, we said ‘the country on its 24-member Board to abstain on the son of TotalFina boss Thierry Desmarest is vote. The vote leaves the consortium of oil married to Canadian Premier Jean Chrétien’s SIERRA LEONE companies involved - Exxon Mobil (USA) 40 per daughter, provoking discussions in parliament cent, Petronas (Malaysia) 35 per cent, Chevron and the press.’ (‘He smiles and smiles’, AC Vol (USA) 25 per cent - to raise the rest, which should 41 No 13). It is in fact André Desmarais, a Kabbah in court include some $900 mn. of export credits from the member of a powerful Canadian family, who US Export-Import Bank and French export-credit married Chrétien’s daughter. His father, Paul Belgium’s Chatelet Investment Company is suing agency Coface. Desmarais Senior, is a director of Franco-Belgian the government in the first such case in a local Bank approval was essential to the oil majors giant TotalFina-Elf and Chairperson of Power court. Its lawyers, Banda Thomas and Co., involved. Environmental lobbies in Washington Corporation, a major shareholder in TotalFina. appeared before High Court Justice Joe Masallay insist the project threatens the pygmy people along André and his brother Paul Junior jointly head a on 5 July claiming President Ahmad Tejan the pipeline route and risks spillage and other Power Corp. subsidiary, Power Financial Corp. Kabbah’s government has failed to honour a damage to plants and animals. The Bank’s soft- Oil insiders say Total is a possible buyer should contract for some US$3.8 million worth of military loan affiliate, the International Development Canada’s Talisman take its winnings and get out hardware. Though Finance Minister James Jonah Association, is also lending some $30 mn. to of Sudan. Controversy over human rights atrocities signed the approval for payment, Chatelet says it Cameroon and Chad to improve environmental in the war zone increased on 30 June when, on the was never paid. Chatelet Investment Co., whose management of oil production and distribution. anniversary of the National Islamic Front’s 1989 Freetown representative is an Israeli, Zeev This may not be enough to save a pipeline ten coup, Army spokesman General Mohamed Morganstein, says in late 1998 the government years on the drawing board. That will depend on Osman Yassin told student conscripts that ‘thanks ordered spare parts for its helicopter gunship, plus politics: specifically, the military opposition to to its growing oil industry’ Sudan was arms and ammunition. The end-user certificate Chadian President Colonel Idriss Déby and the ‘manufacturing ammunition, mortars, tanks and was signed by Kabbah himself, as Defence corruption and mismanagement surrounding Paul armoured personnel carriers’. Both the NIF and Minister and Armed Forces Commander in Chief. Biya’s government in Yaoundé (named the world’s Talisman have repeatedly denied oil revenue would Chatelet Investment says the specifications were most corrupt government in 1998 by anti-graft be used for military purposes. received from government engineers; the order lobby Transparency International). had been approved and signed by the then Chief of A further complication is Déby’s political Defence Staff, the late Brigadier Maxwell Khobe. dalliance with Sudan’s National Islamic Front, GAMBIA But on delivery, the spares turned out to be the still under United Nations and US sanctions (AC wrong ones. This was before the 1999 invasion Vol 41 No 13). A prominent business activist for of Freetown. Freetonians believed it was the the NIF, Mohamed Abdullah Jar el Nabi, has Death on the river helicopter gunship breaking down that had allowed announced his company Concorp is to build a New troubles face President Yahya Jammeh the rebels to invade on 6 January 1999. 5,000 barrel per day refinery in Ndjamena to following the shooting of 13 student demonstrators On national radio Kabbah promised an inquiry, process oil from Chad’s Sedigui Field. Jar el Nabi in early April (AC Vol 41 No 8). Opposition with no stone left unturned, to expose those spent years in business in Uganda then bought leader Oussainou Darboe was arrested on 21 responsible for what he termed a ‘scam’. An Chevron’s concession (now Talisman’s) in Sudan. June, with 24 of his followers from the United inquiry was set up, which exonerated Chatelet. It He has told the press it had been decided he should Democratic Party. They face murder charges, was discovered that advice on the purchase had build businesses for the NIF. after the death of a party colleague up-river near come from engineers working for British firm Most threatening to the project is the hammering Basse. They were bailed though Attorney General Sandline, which was contracted to the government, that Déby’s army has taken in the northern desert Cheyassin Secka objected. and that the specifications given were actually for from rebels under ex-Defence Minister Youssouf The UDP says its leader had asked for police Sandline’s helicopter gunship. This may explain Togoïmi. Libyan airmen ferried out (and Libya protection, after an ambush by the 22 July the sacking of one of the pilots flying the still holds) some Chadian prisoners, probably Movement, a wing of the ruling Alliance for government’s only two helicopter gunships. men of Déby’s Presidential Guard who surrendered Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC), Another firm, Banlamic International, to Togoïmi’s side in February. Separate armed recently dissolved by Jammeh for indiscipline but represented by lawyer J.B. Jenkins-Johnston, is opposition groups have combined to form the commonly believed to be still active. Its militants threatening to sue government for failing to pay Coordination de Mouvements Politiques et Armées were trained by Libya and its leader, Baba Jobe, for haulage services rendered to the Defence de l’Oppositio, based in Libreville and tolerated operates from the presidency. There have been Ministry. And other companies have threatened by Gabon’s President (a famous increasing reports of dissension between legal action for failing to honour defence contracts. 8