Chord Diagram Most (direct) connections start at the top and rotate clockwise, as a default routine of the Chord creation application. Swansea and South Holland do not appear as they have no directs services. 1 or more direct services / hour 1 direct train every 2 hours Fewer than 1 direct train every 2 hours North East Lincolnshire North Kesteven East Lindsey North East Lincolnshire West Lindsey North Lincolnshire Harrogate Boston North Lincolnshire Craven Derbyshire Dales Sheffield Bassetlaw Rotherham Manchester Lincoln Calderdale Bradford Leeds Selby Beyond HS2 Barnsley Barnsley Kingston upon Hull Nottingham / Derby East Riding of Yorkshire Bolsover London North East Derbyshire Kiklees Liverpool Cheshire West & Chester Birmingham South Kesteven May 2018 Edinburgh Cheshire East Newcastle Doncaster Glasgow Bristol Wakefield Cardiff York Chesterfield Warrington Sheffield Leeds © May 2018, Greengauge 21, Some Rights Reserved: We actively encourage people to use our work, and simply request that the use of any of our material is credited to Greengauge 21 in the following way: Greengauge 21, Title, Date ii Beyond HS2 | Greengauge 21 Contents Preface Foreword 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 National and regional policies 11 3.0 Market trends and passenger requirements 29 4.0 Freight 51 5.0 Framing a national strategy 69 6.0 HS2 services and corridors 89 7.0 Scotland, the North of England and the Midlands 97 8.0 The South of England, Wales and London 131 9.0 Re-connecting places left behind 163 10.0 Conclusions 177 Annex 1: Direct rail connectivity between economic sub-regions across Britain and London and other major British cities 195 Annex 2: National plan components 205 About us 209 Beyond HS2May 2018 Chord Diagram Most (direct) connections start at the top and rotate clockwise, as a default routine of the Chord creation application. Swansea and South Holland do not appear as they have no directs services. 1 or more direct services / hour 1 direct train every 2 hours Fewer than 1 direct train every 2 hours North East Lincolnshire North Kesteven East Lindsey North East Lincolnshire West Lindsey North Lincolnshire Harrogate Boston North Lincolnshire Craven Derbyshire Dales Sheffield Bassetlaw Rotherham Manchester Lincoln Calderdale Bradford Leeds Selby Barnsley Barnsley Kingston upon Hull Nottingham / Derby East Riding of Yorkshire Bolsover London North East Derbyshire Kiklees Liverpool Cheshire West & Chester Birmingham South Kesteven Edinburgh Cheshire East Newcastle Doncaster Glasgow Bristol Wakefield Cardiff York Chesterfield Warrington Sheffield Leeds Preface It took us 10 months to produce this comprehensive view of what Britain’s railway should look like in 25 years’ time, “beyond HS2”. We suggest that Britain’s rail strategy has a specific objective: to transform national productivity – as well as supporting greater regional and social equity and tackling climate change. The report sets out the measures needed to make this happen. We show how to bring together the best of high-speed rail with the existing network suitably enhanced. Our thinking leads to a re-orientation for Britain’s railway – from a single hub and spoke based around London to a national railway network, with HS2 developed from a “Y” to an “X” shaped network, and an extensive programme of major route and more localised improvements to achieve the transformation required. Thinking on how best to use HS2 has evolved over the last few years with the emergence of the major regional ‘sub-national bodies’. More emphasis has been placed on better connections between regional cities. HS2’s lead designer, Professor Andrew McNaughton has recently spoken of the need to consider its services less as a ‘surface airline’ operating model, more as a high-speed metro, with an intensive service between eight of Britain’s largest cities. Our report takes this thought and goes further, finding ways to enhance HS2’s value and broaden its spread of benefits. High-speed plays a part in this national rail strategy, but only a part. We looked much more widely and examined what is needed for those places that today lack rail services of any description; what is needed within city regions as well as between them; and, where appropriate, how other transport modes can be brought into the picture. We are aiming to fill a gap: there is no long-term plan for the nation’s railway. Beyond HS2 | Greengauge 21 v Some urged us to go further, and consider all of the available transport modes together. Instead, we sought to meet a simpler but still elusive objective: to make clear what rail does well in terms of meeting the major challenges facing the nation. The nation has a plan for the national motorway network; it was set out in the 1950s. The last pieces – such as the final section of the M8 in Scotland – are just being put in place. We can plan and we must plan long-term because transport networks act as systems. A piecemeal project by project approach carries risk of wasteful expenditure. Of course, plans set for as far ahead as 2040 will be subject to change, but that is the nature of contemporary planning practice, just as it would be in any business. We would expect debate on the choices and conclusions reached in this report – and that could lead to a first update in due course. Outcomes of important work currently in hand, developing strategic outline business cases on options for major schemes such as Northern Powerhouse Rail, will have a major bearing, no doubt. Because of the centrality of rail in facilitating the growth of cities which in turn affects commuting patterns, the strategy carries strong implications for housing policy. We hope the work here can contribute to future efforts to embrace the spatial planning needed to coordinate cost-effectively infrastructure and housing (and industrial) development. It is a lengthy report, so some readers will find it best to go straight to areas of most interest. For those without the time for a full read-through, Chapter 10 Conclusions sets out the overall plan and can be regarded as an executive summary. The relationship between rail and productivity is covered in depth in Chapter 2. We continue with a look at the markets and requirements of passengers (in chapter 3) and rail freight users (chapter 4). Chapter 5 analyses connectivity strengths and weaknesses across the whole country. Chapter 6 centres on the services that will operate over HS2, and the implications for services in HS2 ‘corridors’. Chapters 7 and 8 provide details of the key choices that need to be made region by region. Chapter 7 covers the north of the country and chapter 8 the south. We look at ‘places left behind’, drawing on work by the Government’s Social Mobility Commission in Chapter 9. And we end with Chapter 10 – our conclusions and also our executive summary. Greengauge 21 May 2018 vi Beyond HS2 | Greengauge 21 Foreword Beyond HS2 is a landmark report. Not only do Greengauge 21 identify the clear need for a long term rail strategy for Britain but they go on and put one on the table for discussion. Beyond HS2 is an expansive and timely long term vision for our railways. It demands close consideration by the rail industry, the National Infrastructure Commission and Government. Beyond HS2 is founded in a careful consideration of high level policy ambitions for Britain – for economic growth, for reducing the substantial economic and social disparities across Britain, for growing international trade, for carbon reduction and improving air quality. It is rail that is identified as the mode of transport that helps major towns and cities to prosper – the locations where the economy can be expected to grow most strongly and where concentrated demand flows can be well served by rail. The alternative – over-reliance on roads – offers by comparison the prospect of more congestion and more dispersed lower density development across the countryside. And Beyond HS2 is truly a national strategy. It examines the services that should run on HS2 and the opportunities created on parallel existing lines; it identifies the rail services and developments needed across the English Regions and in Scotland and Wales; and it considers what should be done to re-connect places ‘left behind’ as well. Moreover, Beyond HS2 addresses some key strategic choices. It proposes: » A more cautious assumption of 16 trains per hour as a maximum throughput for the HS2 network over the stem of the ‘Y’, rather than the 18 trains per hour proposed by HS2 Ltd that has not been achieved with high-speed rail anywhere to date. This lower throughput, along with other measures, makes it possible to simplify the design and impact of the second phase development at Euston and avoids the need for all trains to stop at Old Oak Common. Beyond HS2 | Greengauge 21 vii » Upgrading the East Coast Main Line to 140 mph operation as a high priority alongside HS2 and to be delivered without delay. Newcastle- London timings across a shorter route could closely match those achievable by HS2. » And this then frees up capacity on the eastern arm of HS2, once built, so the North East, Yorkshire and the East Midlands can benefit from an increase in fast cross-country services not only to Birmingham but also beyond to Bristol and Cardiff. In effect, HS2 is re-configured as an X rather than a Y – achieved by an additional HS2 junction in the Midlands and an upgrade of the Birmingham-Bristol line. The strategy, in addition, backs upgrades of the Great Western Main Line, and the West Coast Main Line north of HS2. It expresses views about how a new line across the Pennines - Northern Powerhouse Rail - should be configured and proposes a new line in Scotland to halve journey times between Edinburgh and Perth and speed up onward journeys to Inverness and Dundee/Aberdeen.