I UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Is China An

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

I UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Is China An UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Is China an Exception to the Commercial Peace? A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the Requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Jiakun Jack Zhang Committee in charge: Professor Stephan Haggard, Chair Professor David Lake, Co-Chair Professor Erik Gartzke Professor Megumi Naoi Professor Victor Shih 2018 i Copyright Jiakun Jack Zhang, 2018 All rights reserved. ii The Dissertation of Jiakun Jack Zhang is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Chair University of California San Diego 2018 iii DEDICATION To the many mentors who have guided me through my development as a scholar and to my parents who did their best to warn me from going down this difficult path iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE .......................................................................................................... iii DEDICATION ..................................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES.............................................................................................................. x LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................xii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................. xiii VITA .................................................................................................................................. xvi ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION .......................................................................xviii Chapter 1 Understanding the China Challenge .................................................................. 1 1.1 THE SEARCH FOR A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................. 5 1.2 IS CHINA AN EXCEPTION TO THE COMMERCIAL PEACE? .................................................. 9 1.3 OUTLINE OF THE DISSERTATION ................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2 Competing Mechanisms: Constrain, Inform, and Transform ........................ 16 2.1 CRITIQUE OF THE COMMERCIAL PEACE LITERATURE .................................................... 17 Outcomes ...................................................................................................................... 20 Interactions .................................................................................................................. 21 Mechanisms .................................................................................................................. 23 2.2 COMPETING CAUSAL MECHANISMS.............................................................................. 24 Constrain ...................................................................................................................... 26 Inform........................................................................................................................... 30 Transform ..................................................................................................................... 33 2.3 TESTING THE COMMERCIAL PEACE IN CHINA ................................................................ 39 2.4 HYPOTHESES AND RESEARCH DESIGN .......................................................................... 43 v Chapter 3: Large-n Analysis ......................................................................................... 44 Chapter 4: Transform Mechanism ................................................................................ 47 Chapter 5: Constrain and Inform Mechanisms.............................................................. 50 Chapter 6: Case Studies................................................................................................ 53 Chapter 3 Data and Quantitative Analysis........................................................................ 55 3.1 HYPOTHESES ............................................................................................................... 55 3.2 THE CHINESE FOREIGN RELATIONS DATASET ............................................................... 57 China’s Territorial Disputes ......................................................................................... 59 China’s Involvement in Militarized Interstate Disputes ................................................. 63 Measuring China’s Trade Dependence ......................................................................... 65 3.3 RESEARCH DESIGN ...................................................................................................... 69 3.4 RESULTS...................................................................................................................... 74 Effects of Trade Dependence on Initiation of Militarized Disputes ................................ 77 Effects of Territorial Disputes on Initiation of Militarized Disputes .............................. 79 Effects of Trade Dependence on Use of Military Force Targeting China ....................... 80 3.5 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 82 Chapter 4 Does Interdependence Transform National Interests?.................................... 84 4.1 MEASURING NATIONAL INTERESTS .............................................................................. 86 Territorial Disputes ...................................................................................................... 88 The Russian Border ...................................................................................................... 92 The Indian Border ........................................................................................................ 94 The Vietnam Border ...................................................................................................... 99 4.2 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 102 vi Chapter 5 Does Interdependence Constrain or Inform Bargaining? ............................. 110 5.1 CHOOSING BETWEEN MILITARY FORCE AND ECONOMIC COERCION ............................ 110 Measuring China’s Use of Economic Coercion ........................................................... 114 Reduced Form Results ................................................................................................ 117 5.2 MEASURING OPPORTUNITY COST IN THE CONSTRAIN AND INFORM MECHANISMS........ 124 Event Study Results ..................................................................................................... 130 Taiwan Cases ............................................................................................................. 134 Philippines Cases ....................................................................................................... 138 Japan Cases ............................................................................................................... 142 5.1 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 147 Chapter 6 Maritime Disputes with Japan and Vietnam ................................................. 150 6.1 JAPAN CASES: SENKAKU/DIAOYU DISPUTE ................................................................ 152 Economic Context: Sino-Japanese Economic Engagement.......................................... 156 Case #6.1: The April 1978 Dispute ............................................................................. 159 Case #6.2: The September 2010 Dispute ..................................................................... 167 6.2 VIETNAM CASES: SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE............................................................ 181 Economic Context: Sino-Vietnamese Economic Engagement ...................................... 184 Case #6.3: The 1994 Wanan Bei Oil Rig Incident ....................................................... 185 Case #6.4: The 2014 Haiyang Shiyou 981 Standoff ..................................................... 188 Chapter 7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 192 APPENDICES .................................................................................................................. 199 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 212 vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADIZ Air Defense Identification Zone AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank BRI Belt and Road Initiative CCG China Coast Guard CCP Chinese Communist Party CFR Chinese Foreign Relations Dataset CMS China Maritime Surveillance CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor DPJ Democratic Party of Japan DPP Democratic Progressive Party DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ECFA Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (with Taiwan) EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EU European Union FLEC Fisheries Law Enforcement Command GDP Gross domestic product ICB International Crisis Behavior Dataset JASDF Japan Air Self Defense Force JCG
Recommended publications
  • September 04, 1954 Chinese Foreign Ministry Intelligence Department Report on the Asian-African Conference
    Digital Archive digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org International History Declassified September 04, 1954 Chinese Foreign Ministry Intelligence Department Report on the Asian-African Conference Citation: “Chinese Foreign Ministry Intelligence Department Report on the Asian-African Conference,” September 04, 1954, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, PRC FMA 207-00085-19, 150-153. Obtained by Amitav Acharya and translated by Yang Shanhou. https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/112440 Summary: The Chinese Foreign Ministry reported Indonesia’s intention to hold the Asian-African Conference, its attitude towards the Asian-African Conference, and the possible development of the Conference. Credits: This document was made possible with support from the MacArthur Foundation. Original Language: Chinese Contents: English Translation Secret Compiled by the Intelligence Department of the Foreign Ministry (1) At the end of 1953 when Ceylon proposed to convene the Asian Prime Ministers’ Conference in Colombo, Indonesia expressed its hope of expanding the scope of the conference, including African countries. In January this year, the Indonesian Prime Minister Ali accepted the invitation to participate in the Colombo Five States’ Conference while stating that the Asian-African Conference should be listed in the agenda. (Note: During the period of the Korean War, the Asian Arab Group in the UN was rather active, which probably inspired Indonesia to put forward this proposal.) The Indonesian Foreign Minister Soenarjo believed that the Colombo Conference was the springboard to the Asian-African Conference. Ali proposed to convene the Asian-African Conference at the first day meeting of the Colombo Conference (April 28), but he didn’t get definite support or a resolution from the conference.
    [Show full text]
  • New China and Its Qiaowu: the Political Economy of Overseas Chinese Policy in the People’S Republic of China, 1949–1959
    1 The London School of Economics and Political Science New China and its Qiaowu: The Political Economy of Overseas Chinese policy in the People’s Republic of China, 1949–1959 Jin Li Lim A thesis submitted to the Department of International History of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, September 2016. 2 Declaration: I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 98,700 words. 3 Abstract: This thesis examines qiaowu [Overseas Chinese affairs] policies during the PRC’s first decade, and it argues that the CCP-controlled party-state’s approach to the governance of the huaqiao [Overseas Chinese] and their affairs was fundamentally a political economy. This was at base, a function of perceived huaqiao economic utility, especially for what their remittances offered to China’s foreign reserves, and hence the party-state’s qiaowu approach was a political practice to secure that economic utility.
    [Show full text]
  • The East China Sea Disputes: History, Status, and Ways Forward
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Almae Matris Studiorum Campus Asian Perspective 38 (2014), 183 –218 The East China Sea Disputes: History, Status, and Ways Forward Mark J. Valencia The dispute over ownership of islands, maritime boundaries, juris - diction, perhaps as much as 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and other nonliving and living marine resources in the East China Sea continues to bedevil China-Japan relations. Historical and cultural factors, such as the legacy of World War II and burgeoning nation - alism, are significant factors in the dispute. Indeed, the dispute seems to have become a contest between national identities. The approach to the issue has been a political dance by the two coun - tries: one step forward, two steps back. In this article I explain the East China Sea dispute, explore its effect on China-Japan relations, and suggest ways forward. KEYWORDS : China-Japan relations, terri - torial disputes, nationalism. RELATIONS BETWEEN THE PEOPLE ’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC) AND Japan are perhaps at their lowest ebb since relations were for - mally reestablished in 1972. The d ispute over islets and maritime claims in the East China Sea has triggered m uch of this recent deterioration . Because of the dispute, China has canceled or refused many exchanges and meetings of high-level officials, including summit meetings. In fact, China has said that a summit meeting cannot take place until or unless Japan acknowledges that a dispute over sovereignty and jurisdiction exists, something Japan has thus far refused to do.
    [Show full text]
  • Disputes Over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands: Communication Tactics and Grand Strategies Chin-Chung Chao University of Nebraska at Omaha, [email protected]
    University of Nebraska at Omaha DigitalCommons@UNO Communication Faculty Publications School of Communication 6-2014 Disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands: Communication Tactics and Grand Strategies Chin-Chung Chao University of Nebraska at Omaha, [email protected] Dexin Tian Savannah College of Art and Design, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/commfacpub Part of the Communication Commons Recommended Citation Chao, Chin-Chung and Tian, Dexin, "Disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands: Communication Tactics and Grand Strategies" (2014). Communication Faculty Publications. 85. https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/commfacpub/85 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the School of Communication at DigitalCommons@UNO. It has been accepted for inclusion in Communication Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UNO. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Journal of International Relations and Foreign Policy June 2014, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 19-47 ISSN: 2333-5866 (Print), 2333-5874 (Online) Copyright © The Author(s). 2014. All Rights Reserved. Published by American Research Institute for Policy Development Disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands: Communication Tactics and Grand Strategies Chin-Chung Chao1 and Dexin Tian2 Abstract This study explores the communication tactics and grand strategies of each of the involved parties in the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands disputes. Under the theoretical balance between liberal
    [Show full text]
  • US Ambiguity on the Senkakus' Sovereignty
    Naval War College Review Volume 72 Article 8 Number 3 Summer 2019 2019 Origins of a “Ragged Edge”—U.S. Ambiguity on the Senkakus’ Sovereignty Robert C. Watts IV Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Watts, Robert C. IV (2019) "Origins of a “Ragged Edge”—U.S. Ambiguity on the Senkakus’ Sovereignty," Naval War College Review: Vol. 72 : No. 3 , Article 8. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol72/iss3/8 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Watts: Origins of a “Ragged Edge”—U.S. Ambiguity on the Senkakus’ Sovere ORIGINS OF A “RAGGED EDGE” U.S. Ambiguity on the Senkakus’ Sovereignty Robert C. Watts IV n May 15, 1972, the United States returned Okinawa and the other islands in the Ryukyu chain to Japan, culminating years of negotiations that some have 1 Ohailed as “an example of diplomacy at its very best�” As a result, Japan regained territories it had lost at the end of World War II, while the United States both retained access to bases on Okinawa and reaffirmed strategic ties with Japan� One detail, however, complicates this win-win assessment� At the same time, Japan also regained administrative control over the Senkaku, or Diaoyu, Islands, a group of uninhabited—and uninhabitable—rocky outcroppings in the East China Sea�2 By 1972, both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan also had claimed these islands�3 Despite passing con- trol of the Senkakus to Japan, the United States expressed no position on any of the competing claims to the islands, including Japan’s� This choice—not to weigh in on the Senkakus’ sovereignty—perpetuated Commander Robert C.
    [Show full text]
  • Denationalizing International Law in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island Dispute
    THE PACIFIC WAR, CONTINUED: DENATIONALIZING INTERNATIONAL LAW IN THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLAND DISPUTE Joseph Jackson Harris* TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 588 II. BACKGROUND ................................................................................. 591 A. Each State’s Historical Links to the Islands............................. 591 B. A New Dimension to the Dispute: Economic Opportunities Emerge ..................................................................................... 593 III. INTERNATIONAL LAW GOVERNING THE DISPUTE .......................... 594 A. Territorial Acquisition and International Rules of Sovereignty ............................................................................... 594 B The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and Exclusive Economic Rights ...................................................... 596 IV. COMPETING LEGAL CLAIMS AND THE INTERACTION OF INTERNATIONAL LAW, NATIONALIST HISTORY, AND STATE ECONOMIC INTERESTS .................................................................... 596 A. Problems Raised By the Applicable International Law ........... 596 B. The Roots of the Conflict in the Sino-Japanese Wars .............. 597 V. ALTERNATIVE RULES THAT MIGHT PROVIDE MORE STABLE GROUNDS FOR RESOLUTION OF THE DISPUTE ................................ 604 A. Exclusive Economic Zones: Flexibility over Brittleness .......... 608 B. Minimal Contacts Baseline and Binding Arbitration ............... 609 C. The
    [Show full text]
  • The Darkest Red Corner Matthew James Brazil
    The Darkest Red Corner Chinese Communist Intelligence and Its Place in the Party, 1926-1945 Matthew James Brazil A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Doctor of Philosophy Department of Government and International Relations Business School University of Sydney 17 December 2012 Statement of Originality This is to certify that to the best of my knowledge, the content of this thesis is my own work. This thesis has not been submitted previously, either in its entirety or substantially, for a higher degree or qualifications at any other university or institute of higher learning. I certify that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work and that all the assistance received in preparing this thesis and sources has been acknowledged. Matthew James Brazil i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Before and during this project I met a number of people who, directly or otherwise, encouraged my belief that Chinese Communist intelligence was not too difficult a subject for academic study. Michael Dutton and Scot Tanner provided invaluable direction at the very beginning. James Mulvenon requires special thanks for regular encouragement over the years and generosity with his time, guidance, and library. Richard Corsa, Monte Bullard, Tom Andrukonis, Robert W. Rice, Bill Weinstein, Roderick MacFarquhar, the late Frank Holober, Dave Small, Moray Taylor Smith, David Shambaugh, Steven Wadley, Roger Faligot, Jean Hung and the staff at the Universities Service Centre in Hong Kong, and the kind personnel at the KMT Archives in Taipei are the others who can be named. Three former US diplomats cannot, though their generosity helped my understanding of links between modern PRC intelligence operations and those before 1949.
    [Show full text]
  • Hong Kong, 1997 : the Politics of Transition
    The Politics of Transition Enbao Wang .i.' ^ m iip Canada-Hong Kong Resource Centre ^ff from Hung On-To Memorial Library ^<^' Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2010 with funding from IVIulticultural Canada; University of Toronto Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/hongkong1997poli00wang Hong Kong, 1997 Canada-Hong Kong Resource Centre Spadina 1 Crescent, Rjn. Ill • Tbronto, Canada • M5S lAl Hong Kong, 1997 The Politics of Transition Enbao Wang LYNNE RIENNER PUBLISHERS BOULDER LONDON — Published in the United States of America in 1995 by L\ nne Rienner Publishers. Inc. 1800 30lh Street. Boulder. Colorado 80301 and in the United Kingdom by U\ nne Rienner Publishers. Inc. 3 Henrietta Street. Covenl Garden. Uondon WC2E 8LU © 1995 by Lynne Rienner Publishers, inc. All rights reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Wang. Enbao. 1953- Hong Kong. 1997 : the politics of transition / Enbao Wang. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-55587-597-1 (he: alk. paper) 1 . Hong Kong—Politics and government. 2. Hong Kong—Relations China. 3. China—Relations — Hong Kong. 4. China— Politics and government— 1976- 1. Title. bs796.H757W36 1995 951.2505—dc20 95-12694 CIP British Cataloguing in Publication Data A Cataloguing in Publication record for this book is available from the British Uibrarv. This book was t\peset b\ Uetra Libre. Boulder. Colorado. Printed and bound in the United States of .America The paper used in this publication meets the requirements @ of the .American National Standard for Permanence
    [Show full text]
  • The Significance of the Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands Dispute for Taiwan
    Sovereignty or Identity? The Significance of the Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands Dispute for Taiwan Boyu CHEN* Abstract Introduction Narratives of the Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands Where does Taiwan fit in the dispute expose the spectrum of Taiwan’s national Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands dispute? identity. While Taiwan has long been struggling to legitimise its claim of representing China or Officially, Taiwan’s government could to become an independent state, some of the also make claims on the islands. Taiwanese people still welcome their former But historically, Taiwan has had and colonial master, Japan. This paper draws on continues to have intimate relations with academic and journalistic work on how Taiwan both China and Japan. Former Ming has responded to the islands dispute. The author also turns to the internet to examine popular Dynasty officials and scholars escaped to sentiments in the region by examining netizens’ Taiwan in the 17th century to seek refuge discourse on the islands from Taiwan’s largest from the newly installed, Manchu- bulletin board system (BBS), Station-PTT. run Qing Dynasty. After the Second This survey finds that the sovereignty dispute World War, the Nationalist government surfaces issues of national identity. under Chiang Kai-shek fostered an anti-Communist ideology and Chinese Key Words identity, reinforced by US dominance militarily, politically, economically and Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands, China, Taiwan, Japan, National Identity. culturally. At the same time, Taiwan also shares an intimate history with Japan. Colonised by the latter between 1895-1945, Taiwan’s elderly still wax * Boyu Chen is Assistant Professor at the Gradu- nostalgically about Japan while the ate Institute of Political Science, National Sun younger generation swarms to Japanese Yat-sen University, Taiwan.
    [Show full text]
  • From Textual to Historical Networks: Social Relations in the Bio-Graphical Dictionary of Republican China Cécile Armand, Christian Henriot
    From Textual to Historical Networks: Social Relations in the Bio-graphical Dictionary of Republican China Cécile Armand, Christian Henriot To cite this version: Cécile Armand, Christian Henriot. From Textual to Historical Networks: Social Relations in the Bio-graphical Dictionary of Republican China. Journal of Historical Network Research, In press. halshs-03213995 HAL Id: halshs-03213995 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03213995 Submitted on 8 Jun 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. ARMAND, CÉCILE HENRIOT, CHRISTIAN From Textual to Historical Net- works: Social Relations in the Bio- graphical Dictionary of Republi- can China Journal of Historical Network Research x (202x) xx-xx Keywords Biography, China, Cooccurrence; elites, NLP From Textual to Historical Networks 2 Abstract In this paper, we combine natural language processing (NLP) techniques and network analysis to do a systematic mapping of the individuals mentioned in the Biographical Dictionary of Republican China, in order to make its underlying structure explicit. We depart from previous studies in the distinction we make between the subject of a biography (bionode) and the individuals mentioned in a biography (object-node). We examine whether the bionodes form sociocentric networks based on shared attributes (provincial origin, education, etc.).
    [Show full text]
  • Redalyc.THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS TERRITORIAL DISPUTE
    UNISCI Discussion Papers ISSN: 1696-2206 [email protected] Universidad Complutense de Madrid España Drifte, Reinhard THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA: BETWEEN THE MATERIALIZATION OF THE "CHINA THREAT" AND JAPAN "REVERSING THE OUTCOME OF WORLD WAR II"? UNISCI Discussion Papers, núm. 32, mayo, 2013, pp. 9-62 Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid, España Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=76727454002 How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain and Portugal Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative UNISCI Discussion Papers, Nº 32 (Mayo / May 2013) ISSN 1696-2206 THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA: BETWEEN THE MATERIALIZATION OF THE "CHINA THREAT" AND JAPAN "REVERSING THE OUTCOME OF WORLD WAR II"? 1 Reinhard Drifte University of Newcastle Abstract: The territorial dispute between Japan and China over the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is framed by economic interests, domestic circumstances, national identity issues, requirements of international law and historical grievances. The article provides an analysis of these issues which are indicative of the bilateral relationship in general. The analysis of the 1972-2010 period traces the reasons for the erosion of the implicit agreement in 1972 and 1978 between the two countries to shelve the territorial dispute, using Constructivist as well as Realist approaches. The second part contains a case study of the 2010 and the 2012/13 Senkaku incidents, the latter and most serious one started by Ishihara Shintaro, the right-wing Governor of Tokyo, when he declared in April 2012 his intention to have his local government buy some of the contested islands from its private owner which prompted the national government of Prime Minister Noda to buy them instead.
    [Show full text]
  • (Diaoyu) Islands M
    Flashpoints Explaining China’s Escalation over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands M. Taylor Fravel* Massachusetts Institute of Technology This article examines China’s behavior in the dispute with Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Before 2010, China adopted a low-key approach to the dispute. After 2010, however, China chose to escalate the dispute, first in response to Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing vessel in September 2010 and then in response to the Japanese government’s purchase of Downloaded from three of the islands in September 2012. China escalated because Japan’s actions challenged China’s relatively weak position in the dispute. By escalating, China could counter Japanese actions and strengthen its position in the dispute. Since late 2013, the dispute appears to have stabilized. China’s patrols within twelve nautical miles of the islands have strengthened China’s position in the dispute, while Japan has refrained from developing the islands. http://globalsummitry.oxfordjournals.org/ China’s behavior in its dispute over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands with Japan presents a puzzle. Before 2010, China downplayed its claims and sought to delay any resolution of the dispute. China’s claims were rarely mentioned in official media, and China took few concrete actions to press its position. Since 2010, however, China has asserted its claims vigorously. In September 2010, China responded with public threats after Japan seized a Chinese fishing vessel that had entered the territorial waters around the is- lands and then arrested its captain. In September 2012, following the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the islands from a private Japanese citizen, China responded even more vigorously.
    [Show full text]