UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Is China an Exception to the Commercial Peace? A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the Requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Jiakun Jack Zhang Committee in charge: Professor Stephan Haggard, Chair Professor David Lake, Co-Chair Professor Erik Gartzke Professor Megumi Naoi Professor Victor Shih 2018 i Copyright Jiakun Jack Zhang, 2018 All rights reserved. ii The Dissertation of Jiakun Jack Zhang is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Chair University of California San Diego 2018 iii DEDICATION To the many mentors who have guided me through my development as a scholar and to my parents who did their best to warn me from going down this difficult path iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE .......................................................................................................... iii DEDICATION ..................................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES.............................................................................................................. x LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................xii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................. xiii VITA .................................................................................................................................. xvi ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION .......................................................................xviii Chapter 1 Understanding the China Challenge .................................................................. 1 1.1 THE SEARCH FOR A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................. 5 1.2 IS CHINA AN EXCEPTION TO THE COMMERCIAL PEACE? .................................................. 9 1.3 OUTLINE OF THE DISSERTATION ................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2 Competing Mechanisms: Constrain, Inform, and Transform ........................ 16 2.1 CRITIQUE OF THE COMMERCIAL PEACE LITERATURE .................................................... 17 Outcomes ...................................................................................................................... 20 Interactions .................................................................................................................. 21 Mechanisms .................................................................................................................. 23 2.2 COMPETING CAUSAL MECHANISMS.............................................................................. 24 Constrain ...................................................................................................................... 26 Inform........................................................................................................................... 30 Transform ..................................................................................................................... 33 2.3 TESTING THE COMMERCIAL PEACE IN CHINA ................................................................ 39 2.4 HYPOTHESES AND RESEARCH DESIGN .......................................................................... 43 v Chapter 3: Large-n Analysis ......................................................................................... 44 Chapter 4: Transform Mechanism ................................................................................ 47 Chapter 5: Constrain and Inform Mechanisms.............................................................. 50 Chapter 6: Case Studies................................................................................................ 53 Chapter 3 Data and Quantitative Analysis........................................................................ 55 3.1 HYPOTHESES ............................................................................................................... 55 3.2 THE CHINESE FOREIGN RELATIONS DATASET ............................................................... 57 China’s Territorial Disputes ......................................................................................... 59 China’s Involvement in Militarized Interstate Disputes ................................................. 63 Measuring China’s Trade Dependence ......................................................................... 65 3.3 RESEARCH DESIGN ...................................................................................................... 69 3.4 RESULTS...................................................................................................................... 74 Effects of Trade Dependence on Initiation of Militarized Disputes ................................ 77 Effects of Territorial Disputes on Initiation of Militarized Disputes .............................. 79 Effects of Trade Dependence on Use of Military Force Targeting China ....................... 80 3.5 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 82 Chapter 4 Does Interdependence Transform National Interests?.................................... 84 4.1 MEASURING NATIONAL INTERESTS .............................................................................. 86 Territorial Disputes ...................................................................................................... 88 The Russian Border ...................................................................................................... 92 The Indian Border ........................................................................................................ 94 The Vietnam Border ...................................................................................................... 99 4.2 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 102 vi Chapter 5 Does Interdependence Constrain or Inform Bargaining? ............................. 110 5.1 CHOOSING BETWEEN MILITARY FORCE AND ECONOMIC COERCION ............................ 110 Measuring China’s Use of Economic Coercion ........................................................... 114 Reduced Form Results ................................................................................................ 117 5.2 MEASURING OPPORTUNITY COST IN THE CONSTRAIN AND INFORM MECHANISMS........ 124 Event Study Results ..................................................................................................... 130 Taiwan Cases ............................................................................................................. 134 Philippines Cases ....................................................................................................... 138 Japan Cases ............................................................................................................... 142 5.1 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 147 Chapter 6 Maritime Disputes with Japan and Vietnam ................................................. 150 6.1 JAPAN CASES: SENKAKU/DIAOYU DISPUTE ................................................................ 152 Economic Context: Sino-Japanese Economic Engagement.......................................... 156 Case #6.1: The April 1978 Dispute ............................................................................. 159 Case #6.2: The September 2010 Dispute ..................................................................... 167 6.2 VIETNAM CASES: SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE............................................................ 181 Economic Context: Sino-Vietnamese Economic Engagement ...................................... 184 Case #6.3: The 1994 Wanan Bei Oil Rig Incident ....................................................... 185 Case #6.4: The 2014 Haiyang Shiyou 981 Standoff ..................................................... 188 Chapter 7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 192 APPENDICES .................................................................................................................. 199 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 212 vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADIZ Air Defense Identification Zone AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank BRI Belt and Road Initiative CCG China Coast Guard CCP Chinese Communist Party CFR Chinese Foreign Relations Dataset CMS China Maritime Surveillance CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor DPJ Democratic Party of Japan DPP Democratic Progressive Party DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ECFA Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (with Taiwan) EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EU European Union FLEC Fisheries Law Enforcement Command GDP Gross domestic product ICB International Crisis Behavior Dataset JASDF Japan Air Self Defense Force JCG