Curriculum Vitae Charles S. Spencer, Curator Division of Anthropology
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State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization
State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization Leonid Grinin Eurasian Center for Big History and System Forecasting ABSTRACT This article starts with a brief analysis of the causes of state col- lapse as states undergo the process of political evolution. Next, I describe and analyze the mechanisms of social-political crises arising in the process of modernization. Such crises are a conse- quence of the inability of many traditional institutions and ideolo- gies to keep up with changes in technology, communication, system of education, medical sphere, and with the demographic change. This analysis suggests that an accelerated development can cause a system crisis with potentially serious consequences to the society. It is important to take this aspect into consideration because some scholars insist that the economic reconstruction and development are necessary for nation-building. This actually implies a rapid economic advancement (otherwise, the economy could not be re- constructed and developed). However, one should not ignore the possibility that very rapidly developing countries may run the dan- ger of falling into the trap of fast transformation. The present arti- cle describes several mechanisms that can contribute to sociopoli- tical instability, including social tensions arising from rapid ur- banization, youth bulges, and ‘resource curses’. INTRODUCTION I define the state as a system of specialized institutions and rules that regulate internal and external political life of a society. This system is a power-, -
Recent Studies in Andean Prehistory and Protohistory: Papers from the Second Annual Northeast Conference on Andean Archaeology and Ethnohistory D
The University of Maine DigitalCommons@UMaine Andean Past Special Publications Anthropology 1985 Recent Studies in Andean Prehistory and Protohistory: Papers from the Second Annual Northeast Conference on Andean Archaeology and Ethnohistory D. Peter Kvietok Markham College, [email protected] Daniel H. Sandweiss University of Maine, [email protected] Michael A. Malpass Ithaca College, [email protected] Richard E. Daggett University of Massachusetts, Amherst, [email protected] Dwight T. Wallace [email protected] FSeoe nelloxtw pa thige fors aaddndition addal aitutionhorsal works at: https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/ andean_past_special Part of the Archaeological Anthropology Commons, and the Ceramic Arts Commons Recommended Citation Kvietok, D. Peter and Daniel H. Sandweiss, editors "Recent Studies in Andean Prehistory and Protohistory: Papers from the Second Annual Northeast Conference on Andean Archaeology and Ethnohistory" (1985) Ithaca, New York, Cornell Latin American Studies Program. This Book is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@UMaine. It has been accepted for inclusion in Andean Past Special Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UMaine. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Authors D. Peter Kvietok, Daniel H. Sandweiss, Michael A. Malpass, Richard E. Daggett, Dwight T. Wallace, Anne- Louise Schaffer, Elizabeth P. Benson, Charles S. Spencer, Elsa M. Redmond, Gordon C. Pollard, and George Kubler This book is available at DigitalCommons@UMaine: https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/andean_past_special/2 Pref ace The contributions in this volume represent nine of the twenty-three papers presented at the Second Annual Northeast Conference on Andean Archaeology and Ethnohistory (NCAAE), held at the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) on November 19-20, 1983. -
Forthcoming Kondratieff Wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and Global Ageing Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton; Korotayev, Andrey
www.ssoar.info Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton; Korotayev, Andrey Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Zeitschriftenartikel / journal article Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Korotayev, A. (2017). Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 115, 52-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.09.017 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer Deposit-Lizenz (Keine This document is made available under Deposit Licence (No Weiterverbreitung - keine Bearbeitung) zur Verfügung gestellt. Redistribution - no modifications). We grant a non-exclusive, non- Gewährt wird ein nicht exklusives, nicht übertragbares, transferable, individual and limited right to using this document. persönliches und beschränktes Recht auf Nutzung dieses This document is solely intended for your personal, non- Dokuments. Dieses Dokument ist ausschließlich für commercial use. All of the copies of this documents must retain den persönlichen, nicht-kommerziellen Gebrauch bestimmt. all copyright information and other information regarding legal Auf sämtlichen Kopien dieses Dokuments müssen alle protection. You are not allowed to alter this document in any Urheberrechtshinweise und sonstigen Hinweise auf gesetzlichen way, to copy it for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the Schutz beibehalten werden. Sie dürfen dieses Dokument document in public, to perform, distribute or otherwise use the nicht in irgendeiner Weise abändern, noch dürfen Sie document in public. dieses Dokument für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke By using this particular document, you accept the above-stated vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, aufführen, vertreiben oder conditions of use. anderweitig nutzen. Mit der Verwendung dieses Dokuments erkennen Sie die Nutzungsbedingungen an. -
Anna Marie Prentiss Editor
Anna Marie Prentiss Editor Handbook of Evolutionary Research in Archaeology Handbook of Evolutionary Research in Archaeology Anna Marie Prentiss Editor Handbook of Evolutionary Research in Archaeology 123 Editor Anna Marie Prentiss Department of Anthropology University of Montana Missoula, MT, USA ISBN 978-3-030-11116-8 ISBN 978-3-030-11117-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11117-5 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. -
Introduction: from Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations
www.ssoar.info Introduction: From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations - An Introduction to Big History Grinin, Leonid; Rodrigue, Barry; Korotayev, Andrey Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Sammelwerksbeitrag / collection article Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Grinin, L., Rodrigue, B., & Korotayev, A. (2015). Introduction: From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations - An Introduction to Big History. In From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations: A Big History Anthology (pp. 1-16). Primus Books. https:// nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-57736-1 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer Basic Digital Peer Publishing-Lizenz This document is made available under a Basic Digital Peer zur Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den DiPP-Lizenzen Publishing Licence. For more Information see: finden Sie hier: http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ Introduction n From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations An Introduction to Big History BARRY RODRIGUE, LEONID GRININ and ANDREY KOROTAYEV n ACH SCIENTIFIC STUDY emerges in its own particular time and marks a new step in the development of human thought.1 Big E History materialized to satisfy the human need for a unified vision of our existence. It came together in the waning decades of the twentieth century, in part, as a reaction to the specialization of scholarship and education that had taken hold around the world. While this specialization had great results, it created barriers that stood in contrast to a growing unity among our global communities. These barriers were increasingly awkward to bridge, and, thus, Big History emerged as a successful new framework. -
Introduction Big History's Big Potential
Introduction Big History’s Big Potential Leonid E. Grinin, David Baker, Esther Quaedackers, and Andrey V. Korotayev Big History has been developing very fast indeed. We are currently ob- serving a ‘Cambrian explosion’ in terms of its popularity and diffusion. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries, including China, Korea, the Netherlands, the USA, In- dia, Russia, Japan, Australia, Great Britain, Germany, and many more. The International Big History Association (IBHA) is gaining momentum in its projects and membership. Conferences are beginning to be held regularly (this edited volume has been prepared on the basis of the pro- ceedings of the International Big History Association Inaugural Confer- ence [see below for details]). Hundreds of researchers are involved in studying and teaching Big History. What is Big History? And why is it becoming so popular? Accord- ing to the working definition of the IBHA, ‘Big History seeks to under- stand the integrated history of the Cosmos, Earth, Life and Humanity, using the best available empirical evidence and scholarly methods’. The need to see this process of development holistically, in its origins and growing complexity, is fundamental to what drives not only science but also the human imagination. This shared vision of the grand narrative is one of the most effective ways to conceptualize and integrate our growing knowledge of the Universe, society, and human thought. Moreover, without using ‘mega-paradigms’ like Big History, scientists working in different fields may run the risk of losing sight of how each other's tireless work connects and contributes to their own. -
Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends Leonid Grinin, Alexander Markov, Andrey Korotayev
Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends Leonid Grinin, Alexander Markov, Andrey Korotayev To cite this version: Leonid Grinin, Alexander Markov, Andrey Korotayev. Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends. Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles., Uchitel, pp.9-48, 2014, 978-5-7057-4223-3. hprints-01863038 HAL Id: hprints-01863038 https://hal-hprints.archives-ouvertes.fr/hprints-01863038 Submitted on 28 Aug 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Public Domain I. LONG-TERM TRENDS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY 1 Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends* Leonid E. Grinin, Alexander V. Markov, and Andrey V. Korotayev Abstract In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by non-linear, second-order positive feedback between diversity growth and the complexity of community structure. -
Globalistics and Globalization Studies
LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY Faculty of Global Studies RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF ORIENTAL STUDIES The Eurasian Center for Big History and System Forecasting VOLGOGRAD CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH GLOBALISTICS AND GLOBALIZATION STUDIES BIG HISTORY & GLOBAL HISTORY Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Korotayev ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Volgograd ББК 28.02 87.21 Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Big History & Global History. Yearbook / Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Korotayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2015. – 384 pp. This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global History & Big History. The point is that today our global world really demands global knowledge. Thus, there are a few actively developing multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multi- disciplinary approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to form a global view of various processes. -
Download-Report.Html (Date Accessed: 20.05.2014)
RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics INSTITUTE OF ORIENTAL STUDIES VOLGOGRAD CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH HISTORY & MATHEMATICS Trends and Cycles Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Volgograd ББК 22.318 60.5 ‛History & Mathematics’ Yearbook Editorial Council: Herbert Barry III (Pittsburgh University), Leonid Borodkin (Moscow State University; Cliometric Society), Robert Carneiro (American Museum of Natural History), Christopher Chase-Dunn (University of California, Riverside), Dmitry Chernavsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Thessaleno Devezas (University of Beira Interior), Leonid Grinin (National Research Univer- sity Higher School of Economics), Antony Harper (New Trier College), Peter Herrmann (University College of Cork, Ireland), Andrey Korotayev (National Research University Higher School of Economics), Alexander Logunov (Rus- sian State University for the Humanities), Gregory Malinetsky (Russian Acad- emy of Sciences), Sergey Malkov (Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Spencer (American Museum of Natural History), Rein Taagapera (University of California, Irvine), Arno Tausch (Innsbruck University), William Thompson (University of Indiana), Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut), Douglas White (University of California, Irvine), Yasuhide Yamanouchi (University of Tokyo). History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Yearbook / Edited by Leonid E. Gri- nin and Andrey V. Korotayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2014. – 328 pp. The present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics. An increasingly important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. -
The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems
The International Center for Education and Social and Humanitarian Studies Volgograd Center for Social Research Leonid Grinin and Anton Grinin The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems Moscow 2016 ББК 30г 60.5 63 Leonid Grinin and Anton Grinin The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems. Moscow: Moscow branch of Uchitel Publishing House, 2016. – 216 pp. ISBN 978-5-7057-4877-8 The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the devel- opment of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernet- ic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical pro- cess. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the sec- ond half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest pro- duction revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. -
A Theory for Formation of Large Empires*
Journal of Global History (2009) 4, pp. 191–217 ª London School of Economics and Political Science 2009 doi:10.1017/S174002280900312X A theory for formation of large empires* Peter Turchin Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06235, USA E-mail: [email protected] Abstract Between 3000 BCE and 1800 CE there were more than sixty ‘mega-empires’ that, at the peak, controlled an area of at least one million square kilometres. What were the forces that kept together such huge pre-industrial states? I propose a model for one route to mega-empire, motivated by imperial dynamics in eastern Asia, the world region with the highest concentra- tion of mega-empires. This ‘mirror-empires’ model proposes that antagonistic interactions between nomadic pastoralists and settled agriculturalists result in an autocatalytic process, which pressures both nomadic and farming polities to scale up polity size, and thus military power. The model suggests that location near a steppe frontier should correlate with the fre- quency of imperiogenesis. A worldwide survey supports this prediction: over 90% of mega- empires arose within or next to the Old World’s arid belt, running from the Sahara desert to the Gobi desert. Specific case studies are also plausibly explained by this model. There are, however, other possible mechanisms for generating empires, of which a few are discussed at the end of the article. Introduction Understanding the rise and fall of empires (large territorial states) is one of the most import- ant research directions in world history. Beginning with Gibbon,1 most theoretical efforts have been directed to the second part – the causes of imperial disintegration and fragmenta- tion.2 The first part of the question, however, is theoretically more challenging, because large territorial empires are a comparative rarity in the historical record before the Indus- trial Revolution. -
Globalization.Pdf
GLOBALIZATION Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow i GLOBALIZATION Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Edited by Jim Sheffi eld, Victoria University of Wellington Andrey Korotayev Russian State University for the Humanities Leonid Grinin Volgograd Center for Social Research 3810 N 188th Ave Litchfi eld Park, AZ 85340 iii Globalization: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Edited by: Jim Sheffi eld, Andrey Korotayev, & Leonid Grinin Library of Congress Control Number: 2013xxxxxx ISBN: 978-1-938158-08-7 Copyright © 2013 3810 N 188th Ave, Litchfi eld Park, AZ 85340, USA All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored on a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfi lming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America iv v vi ABOUT THE EDITORS Jim Sheffi eld is a systems theorist at the School of Management at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. In this capacity and his previous role as Director of the Decision Support Centre, University of Auckland he has designed, implemented and evaluated more than 100 action research initiatives. Major projects focussed on the facilitation of national policy in response to globalization. Jim has published widely in the systems perspectives that underpin aspects of globalization, especially those related to decision making, knowledge management, systemic development and ethical inquiry. He has over 150 scholarly publications and is coeditor of the Journal of Globalization Studies. He serves on the editorial board of journals and is active in professional societies, including the International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS).