Download-Report.Html (Date Accessed: 20.05.2014)

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Download-Report.Html (Date Accessed: 20.05.2014) RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics INSTITUTE OF ORIENTAL STUDIES VOLGOGRAD CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH HISTORY & MATHEMATICS Trends and Cycles Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Volgograd ББК 22.318 60.5 ‛History & Mathematics’ Yearbook Editorial Council: Herbert Barry III (Pittsburgh University), Leonid Borodkin (Moscow State University; Cliometric Society), Robert Carneiro (American Museum of Natural History), Christopher Chase-Dunn (University of California, Riverside), Dmitry Chernavsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Thessaleno Devezas (University of Beira Interior), Leonid Grinin (National Research Univer- sity Higher School of Economics), Antony Harper (New Trier College), Peter Herrmann (University College of Cork, Ireland), Andrey Korotayev (National Research University Higher School of Economics), Alexander Logunov (Rus- sian State University for the Humanities), Gregory Malinetsky (Russian Acad- emy of Sciences), Sergey Malkov (Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Spencer (American Museum of Natural History), Rein Taagapera (University of California, Irvine), Arno Tausch (Innsbruck University), William Thompson (University of Indiana), Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut), Douglas White (University of California, Irvine), Yasuhide Yamanouchi (University of Tokyo). History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Yearbook / Edited by Leonid E. Gri- nin and Andrey V. Korotayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2014. – 328 pp. The present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics. An increasingly important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical methods. There is a tendency to study history as a system of various processes, within which one can detect waves and cycles of different lengths – from a few years to several centuries, or even millennia. The contributions to this yearbook present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of global historical, political, eco- nomic and demographic processes, as well as their mathematical models. This issue of the yearbook consists of three main sections: (I) Long-Term Trends in Nature and Society; (II) Cyclical Processes in Pre-industrial Societies; (III) Contemporary History and Processes. We hope that this issue of the yearbook will be interesting and useful both for histo- rians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences. The present research has been carried out in the framework of the project of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. ‛Uchitel’ Publishing House 143 Kirova St., 400079 Volgograd, Russia ISBN 978-5-7057-4223-3 © ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2014 Volgograd 2014 Contents Leonid E. Grinin and Introduction. Modeling and Measuring Cycles, Andrey V. Korotayev Processes, and Trends . 5 I. Long-Term Trends in Nature and Society Leonid E. Grinin, Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Alexander V. Markov, Evolutionary Macrotrends . 9 and Andrey V. Korotayev Tony Harper The World System Trajectory: The Reality of Constraints and the Potential for Prediction . 49 William R. Thompson Another, Simpler Look: Was Wealth Really Determined and Kentaro Sakuwa in 8000 BCE, 1000 BCE, 0 CE, or Even 1500 CE? . 108 II. Cyclical Processes in Pre-industrial Societies Sergey Gavrilets, Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies . 136 David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin David C. Baker Demographic-Structural Theory and the Roman Dominate . 159 Sergey A. Nefedov Modeling Malthusian Dynamics in Pre-industrial Societies: Mathematical Modeling . 190 4 Сontents III. Contemporary History and Processes Andrey V. Korotayev, A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Sergey Yu. Malkov, and Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Leonid E. Grinin Social Systems . 201 Arno Tausch and Labour Migration and ‘Smart Public Health’ . 268 Almas Heshmati Anthony Howell Is Geography ‘Dead’ or ‘Destiny’ in a Globalizing World? A Network Analysis and Latent Space Modeling Approach of the World Trade Network . 281 Kent R. Crawford and The British-Italian Performance in the Mediterranean Nicholas W. Mitiukov from the Artillery Perspective . 300 Alisa R. Shishkina, The Shield of Islam? Islamic Factor of HIV Prevalence in Leonid M. Issaev, Africa . 314 Konstantin M. Truevtsev, and Andrey V. Korotayev Contributors . 322 Guidelines for Contributors . 328 Introduction Modeling and Measuring Cycles, Processes, and Trends Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev The present Yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. Already ancient historians (see, e.g., the second Chapter of Book VI of Polybius' Histories) described rather well the cyclical component of historical dynamics, whereas new interesting analyses of such dynamics also appeared in the Medieval and Early Modern periods (see, e.g., Ibn Khaldūn 1958 [1377], or Machiavelli 1996 [1531] 1). This is not surprising as the cyclical dynamics was dominant in the agrarian social systems. With modernization, the trend dynam- ics became much more pronounced and these are trends to which the students of modern societies pay more attention. Note that the term trend – as regards its contents and application – is tightly connected with a formal mathematical analysis. Trends may be described by various equations – linear, exponential, power-law, etc. On the other hand, the cliodynamic research has demonstrated that the cyclical historical dynamics can be also modeled mathematically in a rather effective way (see, e.g., Usher 1989; Chu and Lee 1994; Turchin 2003, 2005a, 2005b; Turchin and Korotayev 2006; Turchin and Nefedov 2009; Nefe- dov 2004; Korotayev and Komarova 2004; Korotayev, Malkov, and Khal- tourina 2006; Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006; Korotayev 2007; Grinin 2007), whereas the trend and cycle components of historical dynamics turn out to be of equal importance. It is obvious that the qualitative innovative motion toward new, unknown forms, levels, and volumes, etc. cannot continue endlessly, linearly and smoothly. It always has limitations, accompanied by the emergence of imbalances, increas- ing resistance to environmental constraints, competition for resources, etc. These endless attempts to overcome the resistance of the environment created conditions for a more or less noticeable advance in societies. However, relatively short peri- ods of rapid growth (which could be expressed as a linear, exponential or hyper- bolic trend) tended to be followed by stagnation, different types of crises and set- backs, which created complex patterns of historical dynamics, within which trend and cyclical components were usually interwoven in rather intricate ways (see, e.g., Grinin and Korotayev 2009; Grinin, Korotayev, and Malkov 2010). 1 For interpretations of their theories (in terms of cliodynamics, cyclical dynamics etc.) see, e.g., Turchin 2003; Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006; Grinin 2012a. History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles 2014 5–8 5 6 Introduction. Cycles, Processes, and Trends Hence, in history we had a constant interaction of cyclical and trend dy- namics, including some very long-term trends that are analyzed in Section I of the present Yearbook which includes contributions by Leonid E. Grinin, Alexander V. Markov, and Andrey V. Korotayev (‘Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends’), Tony Harper (‘The World System Trajectory: The Reality of Constraints and the Potential for Prediction’) and William R. Thompson and Kentaro Sakuwa (‘Another, Simpler Look: Was Wealth Really Determined in 8000 BCE, 1000 BCE, 0 CE, or Even 1500 CE?’). If in a number of societies and for quite a long time we observe regular repetition of a cycle of the same type ending with grave crises and significant setbacks, this means that at a given level of development we confront such rigid and strong systemic and environmental constraints which the given soci- ety is unable to overcome. Thus, the notion of cycle is closely related to the concept of the trap. In the language of nonlinear dynamics the concept of traps will more or less corre- spond to the term ‘attractor’. Continuing the comparison with nonlinear dy- namics, we should say that a steady escape from the trap will largely corre- spond to the concept of a phase transition. In this Yearbook particular attention is paid, of course, to the Malthusian trap. The escape from the Malthusian trap in historical retrospect was incredi- bly difficult (see, e.g., Korotayev et al. 2011; Grinin 2012b). Periodically, at- tempts were made to get out of this trap. However, for many millennia no so- cieties managed to achieve a final steady escape from it, but those attempts in the long run led to a systematic increase in the level of technological develop- ment of the World System. The problems of the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian trap dynam- ics are analyzed in the article by Sergey A. Nefedov (‘Modeling Malthusian Dynamics in Pre-Industrial Societies: Mathematical Modeling’) in Section II of the present issue of the Yearbook. This section also includes the article
Recommended publications
  • The Origins and Consequences of Kin Networks and Marriage Practices
    The origins and consequences of kin networks and marriage practices by Duman Bahramirad M.Sc., University of Tehran, 2007 B.Sc., University of Tehran, 2005 Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Economics Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences c Duman Bahramirad 2018 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Summer 2018 Copyright in this work rests with the author. Please ensure that any reproduction or re-use is done in accordance with the relevant national copyright legislation. Approval Name: Duman Bahramirad Degree: Doctor of Philosophy (Economics) Title: The origins and consequences of kin networks and marriage practices Examining Committee: Chair: Nicolas Schmitt Professor Gregory K. Dow Senior Supervisor Professor Alexander K. Karaivanov Supervisor Professor Erik O. Kimbrough Supervisor Associate Professor Argyros School of Business and Economics Chapman University Simon D. Woodcock Supervisor Associate Professor Chris Bidner Internal Examiner Associate Professor Siwan Anderson External Examiner Professor Vancouver School of Economics University of British Columbia Date Defended: July 31, 2018 ii Ethics Statement iii iii Abstract In the first chapter, I investigate a potential channel to explain the heterogeneity of kin networks across societies. I argue and test the hypothesis that female inheritance has historically had a posi- tive effect on in-marriage and a negative effect on female premarital relations and economic partic- ipation. In the second chapter, my co-authors and I provide evidence on the positive association of in-marriage and corruption. We also test the effect of family ties on nepotism in a bribery experi- ment. The third chapter presents my second joint paper on the consequences of kin networks.
    [Show full text]
  • The Politics of Roman Memory in the Age of Justinian DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the D
    The Politics of Roman Memory in the Age of Justinian DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Marion Woodrow Kruse, III Graduate Program in Greek and Latin The Ohio State University 2015 Dissertation Committee: Anthony Kaldellis, Advisor; Benjamin Acosta-Hughes; Nathan Rosenstein Copyright by Marion Woodrow Kruse, III 2015 ABSTRACT This dissertation explores the use of Roman historical memory from the late fifth century through the middle of the sixth century AD. The collapse of Roman government in the western Roman empire in the late fifth century inspired a crisis of identity and political messaging in the eastern Roman empire of the same period. I argue that the Romans of the eastern empire, in particular those who lived in Constantinople and worked in or around the imperial administration, responded to the challenge posed by the loss of Rome by rewriting the history of the Roman empire. The new historical narratives that arose during this period were initially concerned with Roman identity and fixated on urban space (in particular the cities of Rome and Constantinople) and Roman mythistory. By the sixth century, however, the debate over Roman history had begun to infuse all levels of Roman political discourse and became a major component of the emperor Justinian’s imperial messaging and propaganda, especially in his Novels. The imperial history proposed by the Novels was aggressivley challenged by other writers of the period, creating a clear historical and political conflict over the role and import of Roman history as a model or justification for Roman politics in the sixth century.
    [Show full text]
  • State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization
    State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization Leonid Grinin Eurasian Center for Big History and System Forecasting ABSTRACT This article starts with a brief analysis of the causes of state col- lapse as states undergo the process of political evolution. Next, I describe and analyze the mechanisms of social-political crises arising in the process of modernization. Such crises are a conse- quence of the inability of many traditional institutions and ideolo- gies to keep up with changes in technology, communication, system of education, medical sphere, and with the demographic change. This analysis suggests that an accelerated development can cause a system crisis with potentially serious consequences to the society. It is important to take this aspect into consideration because some scholars insist that the economic reconstruction and development are necessary for nation-building. This actually implies a rapid economic advancement (otherwise, the economy could not be re- constructed and developed). However, one should not ignore the possibility that very rapidly developing countries may run the dan- ger of falling into the trap of fast transformation. The present arti- cle describes several mechanisms that can contribute to sociopoli- tical instability, including social tensions arising from rapid ur- banization, youth bulges, and ‘resource curses’. INTRODUCTION I define the state as a system of specialized institutions and rules that regulate internal and external political life of a society. This system is a power-,
    [Show full text]
  • Revolution and Democracy: Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Modernisation Leonid E
    preview version Revolution and Democracy: Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Modernisation Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev Abstract The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabi- lisation in the process of political transformation are among the most im- portant issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unpre- pared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or similar large-scale events. The authors believe that in a number of cases authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms than emerging democracies, especially those of a revolutionary type, which are often inca- pable of ensuring social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of transition to an efficient and stable democracy. Using historical and contemporary examples, particularly the recent events in Egypt, the article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and the possibility of es- tablishing democracy in a society. Keywords: democracy, revolution, extremists, counterrevolution, Isla- mists, authoritarianism, military takeover, economic efficiency, globali- sation, Egypt Introduction It is not surprising that in five years none of the revolutions of the Arab Spring has solved any urgent issues. Unfortunately, this was probably never a possibility. Various studies suggest a link between 110 preview version revolutions and the degree of modernisation of a society.1 Our research reveals that the very processes of modernisation, regardless of the level of consumption and the rate of population growth, is closely and organically linked to the risk of social and political upheaval, which can Leonid E.
    [Show full text]
  • Journeys to Byzantium? Roman Senators Between Rome and Constantinople
    Journeys to Byzantium? Roman Senators Between Rome and Constantinople Master’s Thesis Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Michael Anthony Carrozzo, B.A Graduate Program in History The Ohio State University 2010 Thesis Committee: Kristina Sessa, Advisor Timothy Gregory Anthony Kaldellis Copyright by Michael Anthony Carrozzo 2010 Abstract For over a thousand years, the members of the Roman senatorial aristocracy played a pivotal role in the political and social life of the Roman state. Despite being eclipsed by the power of the emperors in the first century BC, the men who made up this order continued to act as the keepers of Roman civilization for the next four hundred years, maintaining their traditions even beyond the disappearance of an emperor in the West. Despite their longevity, the members of the senatorial aristocracy faced an existential crisis following the Ostrogothic conquest of the Italian peninsula, when the forces of the Byzantine emperor Justinian I invaded their homeland to contest its ownership. Considering the role they played in the later Roman Empire, the disappearance of the Roman senatorial aristocracy following this conflict is a seminal event in the history of Italy and Western Europe, as well as Late Antiquity. Two explanations have been offered to explain the subsequent disappearance of the Roman senatorial aristocracy. The first involves a series of migrations, beginning before the Gothic War, from Italy to Constantinople, in which members of this body abandoned their homes and settled in the eastern capital.
    [Show full text]
  • Afrasian Instability Zone and Its Historical Background*
    Afrasian Instability Zone and Its Historical Background* Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Issaev, Maria Rudenko, Alisa Shishkina, and Evgeny Ivanov National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow ABSTRACT The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the ‘long 16th century’ was transformed into the global World System com- prised both economic and political components, some of which are discussed in the present article. Earlier research has identified four major zones of instability which can be designated as the Cen- tral Asian (including Afghanistan and Pakistan), the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel region. We suggest considering these four zones as a single Afrasian macrozone of instability. We show that this zone correlates rather closely with the zone of traditional prevalence of the parallel cousin marriage, as well as with the zone of very low female labor force participation rate, and the ter- ritory of the Umayyad Califate. The article demonstrates that this correlation is not coincidental and also discusses the factors and mechanisms that have produced it. INTRODUCTION The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system that in the ‘long 16th century’ transformed into the global World System (see, e.g., Grinin and Korotayev 2014) had not only economic but also political components some of which will be discussed in the present article. In his article ‘Regional Instability Zones’ Konstantin Truev- tsev (2014) has identified five major zones of instability that can be Social Evolution & History, Vol. 15 No. 2, September 2016 120–140 2016 ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House 120 Korotayev et al. / Afrasian Instability Zone and Its Historical Background 121 designated as the Central Asian (including Afghanistan and Paki- stan), the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel region and the Pa- cific.
    [Show full text]
  • Forthcoming Kondratieff Wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and Global Ageing Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton; Korotayev, Andrey
    www.ssoar.info Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton; Korotayev, Andrey Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Zeitschriftenartikel / journal article Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Korotayev, A. (2017). Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 115, 52-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.09.017 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer Deposit-Lizenz (Keine This document is made available under Deposit Licence (No Weiterverbreitung - keine Bearbeitung) zur Verfügung gestellt. Redistribution - no modifications). We grant a non-exclusive, non- Gewährt wird ein nicht exklusives, nicht übertragbares, transferable, individual and limited right to using this document. persönliches und beschränktes Recht auf Nutzung dieses This document is solely intended for your personal, non- Dokuments. Dieses Dokument ist ausschließlich für commercial use. All of the copies of this documents must retain den persönlichen, nicht-kommerziellen Gebrauch bestimmt. all copyright information and other information regarding legal Auf sämtlichen Kopien dieses Dokuments müssen alle protection. You are not allowed to alter this document in any Urheberrechtshinweise und sonstigen Hinweise auf gesetzlichen way, to copy it for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the Schutz beibehalten werden. Sie dürfen dieses Dokument document in public, to perform, distribute or otherwise use the nicht in irgendeiner Weise abändern, noch dürfen Sie document in public. dieses Dokument für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke By using this particular document, you accept the above-stated vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, aufführen, vertreiben oder conditions of use. anderweitig nutzen. Mit der Verwendung dieses Dokuments erkennen Sie die Nutzungsbedingungen an.
    [Show full text]
  • The Developmentof Early Imperial Dress from the Tetrachs to The
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by University of Birmingham Research Archive, E-theses Repository University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. The Development of Early Imperial Dress from the Tetrarchs to the Herakleian Dynasty General Introduction The emperor, as head of state, was the most important and powerful individual in the land; his official portraits and to a lesser extent those of the empress were depicted throughout the realm. His image occurred most frequently on small items issued by government officials such as coins, market weights, seals, imperial standards, medallions displayed beside new consuls, and even on the inkwells of public officials. As a sign of their loyalty, his portrait sometimes appeared on the patches sown on his supporters’ garments, embossed on their shields and armour or even embellishing their jewelry. Among more expensive forms of art, the emperor’s portrait appeared in illuminated manuscripts, mosaics, and wall paintings such as murals and donor portraits. Several types of statues bore his likeness, including those worshiped as part of the imperial cult, examples erected by public 1 officials, and individual or family groupings placed in buildings, gardens and even harbours at the emperor’s personal expense.
    [Show full text]
  • Evolution: from Big Bang to Nanorobots Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey
    www.ssoar.info Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Sammelwerk / collection Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2015). Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-57761-1 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer Basic Digital Peer Publishing-Lizenz This document is made available under a Basic Digital Peer zur Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den DiPP-Lizenzen Publishing Licence. For more Information see: finden Sie hier: http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF ORIENTAL STUDIES The Eurasian Center for Big History and System Forecasting VOLGOGRAD CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH EVOLUTION From Big Bang to Nanorobots Edited by Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Volgograd ББК 28.02 87.21 ‘Evolution’ Yearbook Editors Council: H. Barry III (USA), Yu. Е. Berezkin (Russia), M. L. Butovskaya (Russia), R. L. Carneiro (USA), Ch. Chase-Dunn (USA), V. V. Chernykh (Russia), H. J. M. Claessen (Netherlands), D. Christian (Australia), S. Gavrilets (USA), А. V. Dybo (Russia), K. Yu. Es'kov (Russia), I. V. Ilyin (Russia), N. N. Iordansky (Russia), P. Herrmann (Ireland), A. A. Kazankov (Russia), E. S. Kul'pin (Russia), G. G. Malinetsky (Russia), A. V. Markov (Russia), A. Yu. Militarev (Russia), M. V. Mina (Russia), V. de Munck (USA), А. P. Nazaretyan (Russia), E. B. Nay- mark (Russia), A. D. Panov (Russia), Zh. I. Reznikova (Russia), B.
    [Show full text]
  • Seshat: Global History Databank Publishes First Set of Historical Data the Seshat Project the Evolution Institute
    Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution Seshat: Global History Databank Publishes First Set of Historical Data The Seshat Project The Evolution Institute Abstract This short report describes the publication of the first batch of historical data produced by Seshat: Global History Databank. The data is available as free, open access material here; see also our website for more information on the Seshat project as a whole. Figure 1. Screen-grab of map showing regions included in first batch of data published to http://dacura.scss.tcd.ie/seshat/. Seshat: Global History Databank Seshat: Global History Databank (Seshat) has published its first batch of systematically coded, expert-vetted, and referenced historical data, which can be accessed at http://dacura.scss.tcd.ie/seshat/. Seshat is a large, online, open- access store of information about the human past, a groundbreaking resource that is bringing together the most current and comprehensive body of knowledge about human history available. Previously, our collective knowledge of history remained scattered throughout various texts and isolated in the brains of individual historians. Seshat: Global History Databank gathers as much of this knowledge as Corresponding author’s e-mail: [email protected] Citation: Seshat Project. 2017. Seshat: Global History Databank Publishes First Set of Historical Data. Cliodynamics 8: 75–79. Seshat Project: First Set of Data. Cliodynamics 8:1 (2017) possible into a single, large database that can be used to test scientific hypotheses about the evolution of human societies during the last 10,000 years. The Seshat Project works directly with academic experts on past societies who volunteer their knowledge on the political and social organization of human groups from the Neolithic to the modern period.
    [Show full text]
  • Article Seshat Methodology
    A Macroscope for Global History Seshat Global History Databank: a methodological overview Authors: Pieter François (1, 2), Joseph Manning (3), Harvey Whitehouse (2), Robert Brennan (4), Thomas Currie (5), Kevin Feeney (4), Peter Turchin (6). 1 University of Hertfordshire 2 University of Oxford 3 Yale University 4 Trinity College Dublin 5 University of Exeter, Penryn Campus 6 University of Connecticut Abstract This article introduces the ‘Seshat: Global History’ project, the methodology it is based upon and its potential as a tool for historians and other humanists. The article describes in detail how the Seshat methodology and platform can be used to tackle big questions that play out over long time scales whilst allowing users to drill down to the detail and place every single data point both in its historic and historiographical context. Seshat thus offers a platform underpinned by a rigorous methodology to actually do 'longue durée' history and the article argues for the need for humanists and social scientists to engage with data driven ‘longue durée' history. The article argues that Seshat offers a much needed infrastructure in which different skills sets and disciplines can come together to analyze the past using long timescales. In addition to highlighting the theoretical and methodological underpinnings, the potential of Seshat is demonstrated by showcasing three case studies. Each of these case studies is centred around a set of long standing questions and historiographical debates and it is argued that the introduction of a
    [Show full text]
  • A New Era in the Study of Global History Is Born but It Needs to Be Nurtured
    [JCH 5.1-2 (2018–19)] JCH (print) ISSN 2051-9672 https://doi.org/10.1558/jch.39422 JCH (online) ISSN 2051-9680 A New Era in the Study of Global History is Born but It Needs to be Nurtured Harvey Whitehouse1 University of Oxford, UK Email: [email protected] (corresponding author) Peter Turchin2 University of Connecticut Email: [email protected] (corresponding author) Pieter François3, Patrick E. Savage4, Thomas E. Currie5, Kevin C. Feeney6, Enrico Cioni7, Rosalind Purcell8, Robert M. Ross9, Jennifer Larson10, John Baines11, Barend ter Haar12, R. Alan Covey13 Abstract: Thisa rticle is a response to Slingerland e t al. who criticize the quality of the data from Seshat: Global History Databank utilized in our Nature paper entitled “Complex Societies Precede Moralizing Gods throughout World History”. Their cri- tique centres around the roles played by research assistants and experts in procuring and curating data, periodization structure, and so-called “data pasting” and “data fill- ing”. We show that these criticisms are based on misunderstandings or misrepresenta- tions of the methods used by Seshat researchers. Overall, Slingerland et al.’s critique (which is crosslinked online here) does not call into question any of our main findings, but it does highlight various shortcomings of Slingerland et al.’s database project. Our collective efforts to code and quantify features of global history hold out the promise of a new era in the study of global history but only if critique can be conducted con- structively in good faith and both the benefitsa nd the pitfalls of open science fully recognized.
    [Show full text]